Yadier Molina

Cardinals icon Yadier Molina saw his three-year, $60MM contract expire at season’s end, which could potentially send him into the open market for the first time in his 17-year big league career. There’s sure to be mutual interest in extending the relationship, but agent Melvin Roman tells MLB Network’s Jon Heyman that his client is seeking a two-year deal (audio link to Heyman’s Big Time Baseball Podcast with Tony Gwynn Jr.; Molina talk begins at 34:30).

Whether the Cardinals are interested in handing out a multi-year deal for Molina at this stage of his career is unclear. Though he’s a nine-time All-Star and nine-time Gold Glove winner, Molina’s bat has tailed off dramatically in recent seasons. He’s still managed to hit for a respectable average, but his already meager walk rate has begun to head south. And while his 13.5 percent strikeout rate from 2020 was still considerably lower than the league average, Molina sat around nine to ten percent in that category at his peak. This year’s 78.1 percent contact rate was far and away the lowest of his career, and his 12 percent swinging-strike rate was easily a career-high.

Overall, Molina has turned in a .268/.310/.388 slash over the past couple of seasons. It should be noted that while that translates to an 86 wRC+ — composite production that is 14 percent worse than an average hitter when weighted for home park and league — Molina’s production is right in line with the average MLB catcher in that span. In addition to being a solid bat relative to his positional peers, he also threw out a strong 31.7 percent of attempted base thieves over the past two seasons. In terms of pitch framing, both FanGraphs and Statcast consider Molina slightly above-average dating back to 2019.

It’s not the same package that Molina brought to the table at his peak — or even when he signed that three-year deal prior to the 2018 season — but it’s not as though he has completely wilted. A rather considerable pay cut in terms of annual salary still seems all but certain, whether on a one- or two year deal and whether with the Cardinals or a new team. Not long ago, talk of Molina signing anywhere other than St. Louis would have seemed outlandish, but he said in the run-up to this year’s shortened season that he intended to keep playing even if it meant signing with a new team.

For the Cardinals, the decision comes down to retaining an icon and potential Hall of Famer or turning things over to a younger option like Andrew Knizner. The 25-year-old Knizner (26 in February) has yet to produce in the big leagues but has long rated as one of the organization’s more promising farmhands. He carries a .283/.362/.453 slash through 341 Triple-A plate appearances and a near-identical OPS in a more pitcher-friendly Double-A setting.

At some point, one would imagine the Cardinals would like to see Knizner take on a larger role — even if Molina were to re-sign for a year or two. Further down the organizational pipeline is 20-year-old Ivan Herrera, who could also factor into the equation by the 2022 time frame through which Molina apparently hopes to be extended.

The Cards have some decisions to make regarding both Molina and longtime teammate Adam Wainwright, each of whom seems intent on playing another year at least. The organization must also decide on Kolten Wong’s $12.5MM option, although it’s possible they’ll look to restructure that arrangement.

Those decisions come not only against the backdrop of league-wide revenue losses stemming from the absence of fans in 2020, but at a time when the Cards have $109.75MM guaranteed to eight players and an arbitration class with some key names up for raises. It’s a tough situation for president of baseball ops John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch to navigate — particularly as they look to account for the loss of righty Dakota Hudson (Tommy John surgery) and augment a lineup that produced middling results in 2020.

The Cardinals are working to extend the contract of longtime catcher Yadier Molina for at least one more year and “probably” two more seasons, reports The Athletic’s Mark Saxon (subscription required).

Molina, 37, has been the Cardinals’ primary catcher since 2005 and, over the course of his career, has shouldered the largest workload of any backstop in the game. His durability is the stuff of legend, as evidenced by 15 straight seasons of at least 107 games caught and an average of 126.4 games caught per season during that remarkable stretch. From 2009-13, Molina caught at least 131 games per year. As recently as 2016, he started a ridiculous 142 games behind the plate.

Currently in the final season of a three-year, $60MM extension that pays him an even $20MM per year, it’s unlikely that Molina would command such a lofty salary under the terms of a new contract. The 2019 season, after all, was among the least-productive years he’s put together since breaking out as a big league regular (despite a league-wide uptick in offensive output). In 452 plate appearances, he hit .270/.312/.399. Molina’s low strikeout rate and excellent bat-to-ball skills have long helped him post quality batting averages, but last year’s 5.1 percent walk rate was the lowest of his career. His power dipped noticeably from its 2017-18 levels as well. Molina’s once-elite caught-stealing rate and framing numbers have also tailed off over the past couple of seasons, checking in closer to league average.

Molina, of course, is still a plenty useful backstop — one whose all-around value to the organization would surely be labeled as invaluable by the Cardinals themselves. Hammering out a specific price point could be difficult, though. Molina’s annual salary was already a high-water mark for catchers, and there’s no recent precedent for a catcher inking an extension at this point in his career. Then again, there’s no real precedent for a catcher with Molina’s track record in today’s game at all (as alluded to previously). By the time most catchers reach their age-38 seasons — Molina will turn 38 in July — most have either been downgraded to backup status or have simply retired.

The level at which Molina deems an offer to be suitable, then, is anyone’s guess. His career path in some ways mirrors that of longtime teammate Adam Wainwright, who looked to be running on fumes at the end of the 2018 season. Wainwright agreed to a one-year deal with a minimal $2MM base salary in 2019 and maxed out his incentives package with a bounceback 2019 effort that he parlayed into a $5MM deal for the 2020 season — but that comparison only goes so far. The two play vastly different positions, Molina is talking extension as opposed to a free-agent deal, and he’s still been healthy and reasonably productive on the field.

Saxon reported late last month that Molina would be willing to accept a reduced role in the second season of a new deal (2022), but it seems for the time being he’s still focused on functioning as a workhorse behind the plate. If that’s the case, it’s hard to imagine him settling for anything like the Wainwright deal. Free-agent catcher Robinson Chirinos, who shares an agent (Melvin Roman) with Molina, just signed a one-year deal with a $6.5MM guarantee for his age-36 season in Texas, but he doesn’t have Molina’s track record and isn’t ingrained into the very fabric of Rangers history in the same was as Molina, who has reached icon status in St. Louis.

The Cardinals have $101MM on the 2020 books and $115MM worth of luxury-tax obligations, so it’s certainly not a matter of whether they can fit a new Molina deal into the budget. Rather, the question becomes how the two sides account for a potentially waning level of production for Molina while still respecting the level of value he’s provided over the past decade and a half as he carved out a likely road to the Hall of Fame.