Quick Hits: TV Revenues, Lester, Johnson, Moncada
Payroll parity has improved throughout baseball, writes Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal. A combination of TV deals and luxury taxes have contributed to evening the playing field between the big earners and the laggards. As Mets GM Sandy Anderson points out, “there are outliers in both directions.” Yet we’ve also seen traditionally cautious clubs like the Reds sign Joey Votto to a large contract and outbid the Yankees on two Cuban players. The advantage may cycle back to large market clubs as they hire the best talent away from smaller market. We’ve seen the Dodgers snap up key personnel from the Rays and A’s this offseason which also allowed the Cubs to snag former Rays manager Joe Maddon. Brewers GM Doug Melvin isn’t concerned, saying “more (front office personnel) doesn’t mean better.”
- The Cubs and Red Sox will meet with Jon Lester this week, tweets Hall of Fame journalist Peter Gammons. The Yankees could play the role of dark horse. While other sources have reported that Lester is willing to sign quickly, Gammons suggests the process may last into December.
- Pitcher Josh Johnson is talking with five to six clubs, tweets Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The Padres remain the righty hurler’s first choice, although nothing is imminent. My own thoughts: I’m not sure I see San Diego as a fit unless they trade from their current stock of starters. While pitcher friendly Petco Park is a good destination for Johnson as he seeks to reestablish himself, the Padres appear to have five starters and at least four depth pieces. Surely, another club can offer Johnson an easier path to starts.
- Yoan Moncada‘s expected $30MM to $40MM price tag (reported on Nov. 12) isn’t the only impediment for interested clubs, writes Baseball America’s Ben Badler. Teams routinely reach handshake agreements with the next crop of international free agents well in advance of the July 2nd signing period. Any club who signs Moncada will not be able to sign an international player for over $300K, which would force many teams to rescind existing agreements. While that may not sound like a big issue, Badler describes Latin American scouting as a “small world.” A misstep could alienate the small cadre of influential trainers in the region. Moncada achieved free agency earlier today, although he has not yet been cleared by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control.
MLB Declares Yoan Moncada A Free Agent
MLB has declared Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada a free agent, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com tweets. The US Office of Foreign Assets Control still must unblock Moncada before he is free to sign, however, so it may be awhile before he settles on a team.
The 19-year-old Moncada is widely viewed as an outstanding talent who could get a bonus in the $30MM-40MM range, a huge figure given that, unlike some Cuban players, he is subject to MLB rules governing international bonus pools. Given the taxes for overages on international bonus spending, Moncada would actually cost his new team tens of millions more than his bonus amount.
Moncada held a showcase in Guatemala last week. He left Cuba through legal means last summer.
Latest On Yoan Moncada
Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada is expected to receive a bonus that will absolutely shatter the previous record for an amateur player — international or domestic — and intrigue surrounding him only figures to grow in the coming months. Here’s the latest on the 19-year-old phenom…
- Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel has an outstanding breakdown of not only Moncada’s showcase in Guatemala yesterday, but of the puzzling, seemingly inexplicable way in which he came to leave Cuba. McDaniel writes that Moncada was seemingly granted permission by the Cuban government to leave the country for Guatemala and is free to return and leave again as he wishes (a bizarre phenomenon also noted earlier this month by MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez). Beyond that, Moncada is being represented by a CPA from St. Petersburg who has never negotiated a baseball contract before and will not enlist the help of any veteran MLB agents. In fact, two agents from the Boras Corporation attempted to attend Moncada’s showcase and were not only denied access, but escorted off the premises by armed guards, McDaniel reports. Moncada’s agent has no desire to make this a story about himself and therefore was not named, McDaniel adds.
- McDaniel, too, has spoken to several executives who expect Moncada’s bonus to land in the $30-40MM range, which would result in a 100 percent luxury tax on all overages, which could lead to a total commitment upwards of $80MM. McDaniel writes that were Moncada not subject to international spending limitations, he’d probably clear $100MM with relative ease. Some scouts, he notes, feel Moncada is more talented than Jose Abreu, Rusney Castillo and Yasmany Tomas. He adds that there are already rumors that the Cubs are looking to again blow way past their bonus pool in 2015, so if Moncada isn’t declared a free agent until after June 15, 2015, Chicago figures to be heavily involved. As it stands, the Cubs and Rangers aren’t eligible to sign a player for more than $250K after blowing past their bonus pools in the 2013-14 spending period.
- The Orioles scouted Moncada at yesterday’s showcase but consider the infielder too expensive, reports Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. As Encina notes, Baltimore’s international bonus pool was roughly $2.253MM, meaning that in order to sign Moncada for $30MM, they’d have to invest more than $57MM once luxury tax is accounted for. Encina’s source for his article said he expects Moncada to sign for “at least” a $25MM bonus.
- MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez tweets that the Angels definitely like Moncada but consider him to be out of their price range. The Halos currently hold the record for a Cuban amateur, having recently given Roberto Baldoquin an $8MM bonus. (Others, such as Abreu and Castillo, were not considered amateurs by the collective bargaining agreement.)
Yoan Moncada Expected To Receive Record Bonus For Amateur Player
Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada is quickly becoming one of the most hyped amateurs in history, and it’s expected that he will absolutely shatter the record for an amateur player — international or domestic — according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. Passan spoke to a pair of GMs and two other executives, and all four agreed that they expect the 19-year-old Moncada to land an incredible $30-40MM bonus.
While that bonus doesn’t necessarily seem steep right off the bat, at least when juxtaposed with the commitments made to countrymen Yoenis Cespedes ($36MM), Yasiel Puig ($42MM), Jose Abreu ($68MM) and Rusney Castillo ($72.5MM), bear in mind that each of those players was viewed as a professional under baseball’s collective bargaining agreement and therefore was not subject to international spending limitations.
Moncada, on the other hand, will be subject to spending limits, but executives that spoke with Passan still seemed to believe the price tag could approach $40MM. That would obliterate any team’s bonus pool, and a signing team would have to pay a 100 percent luxury tax on all overages (in addition to subsequently being prohibited from spending more than $300K on a player in the next two signing periods). In that regard, then, a team would essentially be dropping $60-80MM to add Moncada to its farm system, based on the range Passan received in his poll of execs.
As Passan notes, Moncada has yet to be unblocked by the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control or Major League Baseball, so the timeline for his arrival on the free agent market is uncertain, but the timing of his arrival is critical. If Moncada isn’t declared a free agent until next year’s signing period (the current signing period runs through June 15, 2015), the Angels, Yankees and Red Sox would not be able to sign him, as the penalties they’ve incurred prevent them from signing a player for more than $300K in the next two signing periods. If he’s declared a free agent in the current signing period, the Rangers and Cubs, who exceeded their bonus pool in the 2013-14 signing period, would not be able to sign him.
Nearly every team was on-hand today in Guatemala to see a Moncada showcase, although Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets that the Angels weren’t there to see him (they’ve seen him in the past, Fletcher notes).
MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo spoke to multiple scouts who were on-hand, with one scout giving Moncada a 60 hit-tool, 60 power, 70 speed, a 60 arm and a 50 in terms of fielding (on the 20-80 scouting scale). A scouting director told Mayo that Moncada is “worth going way over your international spending pool,” adding that the game is ultimately about talent, and Moncada “is the kind of talent worth the investment.” Another touted his five-tool potential and said he was in great shape. Mayo hears that Moncada looked better at third and second than shortstop, though he has the arm to play any infield position. The Yankees, Red Sox, Braves and Cubs all had four or more scouts in attendance, per Mayo.
Those wishing to learn more about the potential phenom can check out this report on him from Baseball America’s Ben Badler penned back in August.
NL East Notes: Stanton, Mets, Nationals, Tomas, Hamels
As expected, the Marlins have begun extension talks with star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports on Twitter. President of baseball operations Michael Hill tells Spencer that the team has “reached out” to Stanton’s representatives and that “negotiations are ongoing.”
Here’s more from the NL East:
- At present, the Mets are more inclined to fill their needs in the corner outfield via trade than through a free agent signing, reports Marc Carig of Newsday. New York is still hesitant to give up any of its best young talent in a swap. But veterans like Michael Morse, Alex Rios, and Torii Hunter all seem more like fallback options that the team would pursue if value can be had and nothing better has materialized. The Mets are said to prefer to add a right-handed bat.
- One other hypothetical possibility, Nick Markakis, is not presently engaged with the team in any way, according to Matt Ehalt of The Record (Twitter link).
- As they weigh their options at second, the Nationals are not unmindful of the Cuban market that has begun to materialize in recent weeks, James Wagner of the Washington Post reports. The primary possible targets, per Wagner, are 26-year-old Jose Fernandez and high-upside youngster Yoan Moncada. The 20-year-old Moncada will draw immense interest, with Ben Badler of Baseball America saying he is talented enough that he would be the odds-on favorite to go first overall in this year’s amateur draft (were he eligible).
- The Phillies are still the favorite to land Cuban outfielder Yasmany Tomas, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, with A.J. Burnett‘s decision to decline his option possibly burnishing Philly’s chances. That does not mean they are without competition, of course. Other clubs that have seen (or will soon see) Tomas since his showcase include the Rangers, D’backs, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Red Sox, and Mariners.
- Also per Heyman, the Phillies could clear yet more payroll space and add young talent through a deal for pitcher Cole Hamels, with the Cubs still showing interest in the lefty.
Yoan Moncada To Hold Showcase
Top young Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada has established residence in Guatemala, where he will have a showcase November 12, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports. Evaluators from all 30 teams are expected to attend. Moncada is petitioning to become an MLB free agent. In June, Sanchez reported that Moncada had left Cuba through legal means.
Unlike many Cuban arrivals, the 19-year-old Moncada will be subject to MLB rules regarding MLB bonus pools. Sanchez notes that it’s not clear whether Moncada plans to sign in the current signing period or wait until next July 2. The Cubs and Rangers, who spent dramatically more than their bonus pools in the 2013-14 signing season, would not be allowed to sign him for more than $250K in the current signing period, while the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays will not be able to sign him for more than $300K starting next summer.
The young shortstop and third baseman has played alongside Jose Abreu, Erisbel Arruebarrena, Raisel Iglesias and other top Cuban players. Sanchez notes that scouts have described Moncada as “the next Jorge Soler.”
Infield Prospect Yoan Moncada Leaves Cuba
Well-regarded young infielder Yoan Moncada has left Cuba with apparent intentions of qualifying for MLB free agency, reports MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. The 19-year-old switch-hitter would be subject to international spending limits, making for an interesting wrinkle in the soon-to-launch July 2 signing period.
Moncada was able to make his departure from his home nation through legal means, according to Sanchez, and must now secure residency in another country before petitioning MLB for free agency and receiving clearance from the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. As Obstructedview.net explained back in May, Moncada — once a teammate of Jose Abreu and Erisbel Arruebarrena with Cienfuegos — had sought government permission to leave his club and country.
Moncada has spent most of his time at second base, though he reportedly is also capable of playing short or third. Sanchez lists him at 6’2″ tall and 205 lb. Moncada’s Serie Nacional statistics and a highlight video can also be found at Obstructedview.net. In 367 total plate appearances over the last two years — all before he turned 19 — he owns a .277/.388/.380 line with four long balls and 21 stolen bases (against 11 times caught stealing).
With teams already well along in lining up commitments to July 2 prospects, it will be interesting to see how they react to Moncada’s potential entry. Though he could still be months away from being able to sign, he would likely become eligible in the upcoming period if all goes smoothly. Unlike most of the players who may command significant bonuses, Moncada is a more developed player who has spent some time against higher-level competition.
Several clubs — most notably, the Yankees — are already said to be prepared to exceed their bonus allotments. The penalty for exceeding the cap includes a 100% tax on the overage and varying caps on future bonuses, depending upon how much the spending goes over the cap. The maximum penalty, which attaches when a team exceeds its pool by 15% or more, precludes a club signing any player for more than $300K during each of the next two signing periods.