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2011 Contract Issues: San Diego Padres

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The Padres face four contractual options after the season:

  • Starting pitcher Chris Young has an $8.5MM club option.  This year he made his April 6th debut start before hitting the disabled list with a strain of his surgically-repaired shoulder.  This DL stint appears minor, but looking at the bigger picture the Padres will likely decline Young's option.
  • Adrian Gonzalez's $5.5MM club option for 2011 is a mere formality.
  • The Padres have a pair of mutual options in Jon Garland and Yorvit Torrealba.  It's rare to see both sides exercise such an option.

Four more players are up for free agency: Kevin Correia, David Eckstein, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Matt Stairs.  The four make a combined $7.425MM in 2010.  Young, Garland, and Torrealba make $11.7MM, bringing the total freed up to $19.125MM (minus a million or so in buyouts).  So, about $18MM will come off the books if everyone but Gonzalez leaves.

Gonzalez will get a $750K bump; that's it for players under contract.  First-time arbitration-eligibles include Tony Gwynn Jr., Edward Mujica, and Tim Stauffer.  Mike Adams will go for a second time, while Heath Bell and Scott Hairston go for a third.  Regarding Bell, we may have overestimated his potential raise in suggesting earlier that he could double his $4MM salary.  Think $6-7MM instead.

Even holding payroll at $38MM and retaining all arbitration-eligible players, the Padres would have over $10MM to spend in the winter of 2010-11.  A few midseason trades, a handful of non-tenders, and a higher payroll would increase the spending money.

Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Orioles, Griffey, Braves

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FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal has a new Full Count video up, so let's see what he has for us…

  • The Orioles will almost certainly be the first team to fire their manager this season, and both Bob Melvin and Bobby Valentine came up in past internal discussions. Bigger jobs are in store for Valentine, but Buck Showalter might also be a candidate. Rosenthal reminds us that the team doesn't have anyone in-house with prior big league managing experience. 
  • The Mariners expect Cliff Lee back on Friday and Erik Bedard back in four weeks, but the focus will remain on the offense and Ken Griffey Jr.'s .238/.289/.262 performance. Rosenthal says not to expect anything to happen with him anytime soon; Seattle has five Griffey-centric promotions scheduled for the first half.
  • The Braves are a logical landing spot for Adrian Gonzalez, but they're also very high on first base prospect Freddie Freeman. The last time they traded for a first baseman with a year-plus left on his contract, they basically rebuilt the Texas Rangers.
  • The Nationals made a run at Jermaine Dye and had more than one conversation with Gary Sheffield's agent, but GM Mike Rizzo said those talks were just to gauge interest. For now, they're happy with the a platoon of Willie Harris and Justin Maxwell because of their defensive abilities, and Rizzo says that will remain a point of emphasis as the team moves forward. 
  • Rosenthal expects the Nats to get better as the season progresses. They'll be adding Stephen Strasburg, Drew Storen, Chien-Ming Wang, Ross Detwiler, and Jordan Zimmermann to their pitching staff at various points this year.

Odds & Ends: Washburn, Bell, Padres, Angels

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A few notes from around the majors to end the work week….

  • Tom Krasovic of the Inside The Padres blog passes along word (via Twitter) from Scott Boras that Jarrod Washburn has "turned down offers from multiple clubs" and the money isn't the top issue for the veteran left-hander.  We've heard about the Mariners, Royals, Diamondbacks and Indians all having some degree of interest in Washburn.
  • Scott Miller of CBSSports.com reports that the Twins "had what they viewed as a workable deal" for Heath Bell in March, but backed off due to worries about Bell's "character issues."
  • In response to a reader's mailbag question about whether Jon Garland or Chris Young is more likely to be dealt this summer, MLB.com's Corey Brock instead said (unsurprisingly) that San Diego will get the most calls about Bell if teams want a Padre pitcher.  In regards to the Garland/Young choice, you'd have to think that Garland would be the preferred choice of teams looking for a starter.  Garland has been a proven innings-eater for a decade, whereas Young has battled injuries for the last two seasons and is currently on San Diego's DL.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports thinks the Angels might have a tough time sustaining their domination of the AL West.  Should the club win the division again, Rosenthal says "it’s difficult to imagine them advancing in the playoffs unless they make a trade or two."  He notes the Halos might need a right-handed reliever or a slugging third baseman if Scot Shields and/or Brandon Wood, respectively, continue to struggle.
  • R.J. Anderson of Fangraphs can't figure out why the Royals released Juan Cruz.

Could The Braves Join Adrian Gonzalez Sweepstakes?

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We've been hearing the Adrian Gonzalez-to-Boston rumors for months now, though there have been whispers that Boston may not have the minor league package necessary to extract Gonzalez from San Diego, the Padres might just keep Gonzalez if they don't find a deal to their liking, and that other teams will be taking just as hard a look at the slugging first baseman.

FOX Sports' Jon Paul Morosi suggests that Atlanta may be one of those other teams.  Morosi spoke to an unnamed scout who said that the Braves "may have the greatest need" for a hitter of Gonzalez's caliber given Atlanta's team-wide struggles at the plate.  The Braves entered Friday's action with a .229 team batting average, tied with the Mets for sixth-lowest in baseball.

Going into the offseason, Atlanta's greatest need was to add a big bat to give more support to one of baseball's strongest starting rotations.  The Braves instead made several small moves to add the likes of Eric Hinske, Melky Cabrera and Troy Glaus rather than splurging on a high-priced free agent.  While it's still too early in the season to fully judge how these moves will pan out, Glaus (as Morosi points out) has particularly struggled at first base, posting a .524 OPS in 58 plate appearances.  Given that Glaus is on a one-year, $1.75MM contract, the Braves would have no hesitations about benching, trading or even releasing Glaus if the right opportunity at Gonzalez came along.

In picking up Gonzalez, Morosi notes that the Braves would be blocking the progress of slugging first base prospect Freddie Freeman.  However, since this is Bobby Cox's final season, could the team be in an all-out "win now" mode?  If the Braves find themselves fighting for a playoff spot in July, Freeman's future promise might be considered a necessary sacrifice for Cox's last postseason push.  Also, Freeman would be a logical addition to the hypothetical package to San Diego. 

Of course, adding a star first baseman is no golden ticket to the playoffs.  The Braves know this all too well — they sent Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Beau Jones to Texas at the 2007 trade deadline for Mark Teixeira.  While Teixeira hit well for Atlanta, the Braves only finished third in the NL East in 2007 and wound up trading Teixeira themselves the next July.  No doubt this recent deal will make the Braves think twice before offering up another big group of prospects for what might end up being a short-term rental of a player.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Garza, Pierzynski, Padres

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Eleven years ago today, Fernando Tatis became the first and only player in baseball history to hit two grand slams in one inning. Amazingly, both came off Chan Ho Park, who allowed 11 runs while recording eight outs. Tatis went on to hit .298/.404/.553 with 34 homeruns for the Cardinals that season, easily the best of the big league career. 

 Here are a handful of links from around the blogosphere…

If you have a suggestion for this feature, Mike can be reached here.

Odds & Ends: Zobrist, Pierzynski, Lowe, Padres

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Links for Friday…

Stark On Padres, Jose Guillen, Derrek Lee

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ESPN's Jayson Stark kicks off today's column with a look at which teams' starts he considers reality and illusion.  Beyond that, a look at his hot stove rumblings…

  • One club official who "felt out" the Padres over the winter believes they'll hold on to their top players if they're in contention in July.  As Stark says, the market would look a lot worse without Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell.
  • Stark names six sluggers who "might be in play" this summer: Josh Hamilton, Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche, Rick Ankiel, Paul Konerko, and Manny Ramirez.  Hamilton and Manny are longer shots, but they'd certainly get the hot stove burning.
  • As for Jose Guillen – executives Stark talked to just aren't interested, despite his .377/.406/.738 start.
  • In search of new stadiums, where could the Rays and A's legitimately threaten to move?  Stark and his sources run through ideas and can't find a viable city.
  • A friend of Cal Ripken's tells Stark "there's a lot of mutual respect" between Ripken and Orioles owner Peter Angelos.  Ripken seeks a difference-making job, rather than just a title.  It doesn't necessarily have to be with the Orioles.
  • The Cubs told Derrek Lee's agent Casey Close they'd prefer to let the season play out before talking extension.  Lee discussed the situation during Spring Training. 
  • Stark's sources consider Brett Anderson's four-year, $12.5MM deal a very team-friendly contract.  To the A's credit, most young pitchers are not willing to give two club options.  Playing devil's advocate –  did the potential cost savings justify committing four years to Anderson after just one year of service?  You can find multiple clubs that do not share Oakland's enthusiasm for locking up good young pitchers.

Odds & Ends: Bell, Dye, Ortiz, Davis, Strasburg

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Links for Monday…

  • The MLBTR Forums are rocking with over 3,600 members.  Join the discussion today!  Just added a prospects section; we've also got areas to discuss trade rumors, free agents, the draft, general baseball, fantasy baseball, and every team.
  • Tom Krasovic tweets that the Twins have a scout at tonight's Padres-Giants game, but it's just a routine visit. He adds that Heath Bell remains on Minnesota's radar, but the two sides haven't talked since Spring Training.
  • The Giants have no interest in Jermaine Dye, tweets Henry Schulman of The San Francisco Chronicle. The reasons are the same as they've been all winter: defense and asking price.
  • More changes could be coming to the Dodgers' bullpen, says Dylan Hernandez of The Los Angeles Times. Russ Ortiz was designated for assignment yesterday, and Hernandez thinks Ramon Ortiz could be next.
  • Talking to MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith, I learned that teams can now safely promote minor leaguers for their MLB debuts with no chance of the player amassing 172 days of service in 2010.  By promoting '08 first-rounder Ike Davis today, the Mets ensured that he will be under team control through 2016 instead of 2015.  In contrast, the Braves have Jason Heyward through '15.
  • On that same topic, agent Scott Boras told MLB.com's Peter Gammons that Stephen Strasburg starting in the minors "had nothing to do with money."
  • Joe Posnanski digs into Forbes' team revenue numbers, noting that the Yankees made $173MM more than any other team.
  • MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch tells us Hayden Penn has accepted the Pirates' Triple A assignment in lieu of electing free agency.
  • In a statement, Cal Ripken said he looks forward to continued talks with the Orioles about a position in the organization.

Should The Padres Try To Sign Headley Long-Term?

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The Padres are off to a somewhat surprising 6-6 start to the season, thanks in no small part to some late inning heroics by third baseman Chase Headley. The 25-year-old is hitting .375/.423/.521 through 12 games, and has established himself as the cleanup hitter behind megastar Adrian Gonzalez.

Headley won't be a free agent until after the 2014 season and he won't qualify as a Super Two next season, so the Padres can enjoy his production for close to the league minimum both this year and next. However, buying out his arbitration years and perhaps a free agent year or two would give the team some cost certainty should his breakout continue, and it would also give Headley some long-term financial security.

There's no obvious historical comparison for a long-term deal. Both Ryan Zimmerman and David Wright had more service time when they signed their deals, and of course their performance is a notch above Headley's right now. Evan Longoria has a similar amount of service time at the moment and will be paid just $13.45MM during what would be his last four years of team control, though he's vastly underpaid. 

Longoria's framework might not be too far off base, so perhaps something along the lines of four years (2011-2014) and $15MM with some options beyond that makes some sense for the Padres and Headley. There's certainly no rush for the team considering he's still in his pre-arb years, but if he keeps hitting, it's only going to get more and more expensive for San Diego to sign what looks like their next great homegrown player long-term. 

Largest Contracts In Team History

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We've already looked at the largest contracts by service time and position, so let's now dig up the largest contracts ever given out by each of the 30 teams. These are in terms of guaranteed money only, but some could end up being even larger because of incentives and option years.

Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the info.

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