By Tim Dierkes | at
As has been speculated for some time, the Padres are close to signing Greg Maddux. Ken Rosenthal has the scoop; he describes the likely signing as a "significant blow to the Dodgers."
Maddux turns 41 next April. Overall in 2006 he won 15 games with a 4.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 3.2 K/BB. The Professor has reached 199 or more innings every season since 1988. He is one of a kind.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Rotoworld lists the potential suitors for Kei Igawa as the "Padres, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Yankees, Braves, Mets, Cubs and Indians." They rule out the Red Sox and Mariners, though this Tacoma News-Tribune article says the M’s are "likely" to bid. That same article predicts that the posting fee will be about "two-thirds less" than Daisuke Matsuzaka’s $51.1M: $17M.
That seems high for a guy who David Wright isn’t convinced has MLB-quality stuff. Personally, I wouldn’t want my team spending more than $10M for his rights, but with all those teams involved, $17M seems plausible.
UPDATE: An alert e-mailer points out this article on the Braves official site. According to club officials, Atlanta won’t be involved in this one.
By Jeff Sackmann
By Tim Dierkes | at
Ken Rosenthal just keeps churnin’ ’em out, and I keep passin’ ’em along. This is a good one: the Padres are interested in Barry Bonds for left field. In 493 plate appearances Bonds had the best OBP in baseball this year at .454.
While one might think PETCO could diminish Bonds’s power, Bill James says otherwise in his latest handbook. After bringing in the fences a little bit, PETCO played very differently for left-handed power hitters in 2006. While left-handed HRs were deflated by 38% over 2004-05, they were inflated by 51% in 2006. I think Bonds would do just fine.
By Tim Dierkes | at
The Mets and Padres made an interesting trade today, with the Pads sending outfielder Ben Johnson and reliever Jon Adkins to New York for relievers Heath Bell and Royce Ring.
Johnson, 25, is a possible platoon candidate in the outfield for the Mets in 2007. He can play all three outfield positions and is a good athlete, featuring power and speed. While he mashed during his first stint in Triple A in '05, he didn't impress at the same level this year. Back in 2002, Johnson was the Padres' second choice for a prospect in the Carlos Hernandez trade after Albert Pujols.
Adkins was the return to the White Sox for Ray Durham back in July of '02. He's got a 4.63 ERA in 134 big league innings of relief.
The Mets acquired Ring, a 26 year-old southpaw, for Roberto Alomar back in 2003. Historically, Ring has always been difficult to hit. He posted a 2.77 ERA in 52 innings between Triple A and the Majors this year.
Bell is a 29 year-old righty. He's been dominant in Triple A but has struggled with the Mets for the past two seasons. Even so, he showed very good command as a Met.
By Tim Dierkes | at
An idea I hadn’t heard before: Tom Krasovic reports that Brian Giles could be available.
Remember way back to…last year? Giles was perhaps the premiere free agent outfielder on the market. He got MVP votes in 2005. He played good enough defense that the Yankees even considered signing him to play center last winter.
But here we are, with Giles owed $18MM over his age 36-37 seasons. Kevin Towers is out flirting with J.D. Drew and Alfonso Soriano (and Towers is taking them to fancy dinnesr) while Giles is yesterday’s news despite his acceptance of a hometown discount.
I really thought Giles would age better than this. His slugging plummetted 86 points. His flyball percentage actually increased, and his home runs per flyball didn’t drop too far. Almost half of the power outage can be blamed on a decrease in triples, believe it or not. Extrapolating his 2006 to the 545 ABs of the previous year, Giles had six fewer singles, five fewer doubles, seven fewer triples, and two fewer home runs. Doesn’t sound like much, but in sum it looks pretty bad.
He also saw his walk rate decline by about 3% (though walking 14.5% of the time ain’t too shabby). Giles should still be worth most of his remaining salary, and it’s only two years. He’d be a fine pickup for the Phillies, Mariners, or Rangers, whose parks are kind to left-handed power hitters.
By Tim Dierkes | at
There’s a link going around to NBC San Diego’s website. I’m not sure exactly who authored this one, but here’s the quote:
"A source inside the Padres organization said the team feels very confident they’ll sign Alfonso Soriano when the free agent signing period begins, NBC 7/39 reported."
And why not? The Padres have what, $30MM to spend?
By Tim Dierkes | at
Very interesting trade just went down: the Padres sent second baseman Josh Barfield to the Indians for third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff and reliever Andrew Brown.
Side effects: the Padres now have an opening at second if they want to trade for Marcus Giles, and they probably won't make a bid for Akinori Iwamura. Kevin Towers found a creative way to acquire a third baseman without spending money. Kouzmanoff, 25, did nothing but hit in the high minors this season. Baseball Prospectus's Kevin Goldstein ranked him the tenth best third base prospect in the game despite his age and health concerns.
Barfield had an OK rookie season, with a scorching July skewing the numbers a bit. He'll be just 24 next year, so there's room for improvement.
By Tim Dierkes | at
It’s old news, but I missed it a few days ago. Ken Rosenthal reported that the Padres are talking to the Braves about Marcus Giles. San Diego would use Giles as a third baseman, a position at which Giles has played nine games in his Major League career. But hey, it’s creative. Rumor has it the Braves might pursue a good reliever in return.
From the Fielding Bible, I learned that Giles has good range and hands but is much better on plays to his right than his left. Not good for third base, I would think.
Baseball Prospectus’s Marc Normandin did a player profile on Giles in September. Normandin concluded:
"If the Braves do indeed move Giles this winter, as has been whispered, then some new team might have themselves a second baseman who is still within his peak productivity, and may even get him at bargain-basement pricing, considering his ’off’ year. Considering this winter’s weak free agent class, adding a player of Giles’ caliber would be a serious upgrade in a market that doesn’t offer very many of those."
By Tim Dierkes | at
Alright, time for another one of these Team Outlooks.
Kevin Towers’s contract obligations:
C – Josh Bard – $0.3534MM
C – Rob Bowen – $0.33MM
1B – Adrian Gonzalez – $0.3275MM
2B – Josh Barfield – $0.327MM
SS – Khalil Greene – $0.405MM
3B –
IF – Russell Branyan – $1.25MM
LF –
CF – Mike Cameron – $7MM
RF – Brian Giles – $9MM
OF – Terrmel Sledge – $0.3475MM
OF – Ben Johnson – $0.3275MM
SP – Jake Peavy – $4.75MM
SP – Chris Young – $0.6MM
SP –
SP – Clay Hensley – $0.329MM
SP – Mike Thompson – $0.33MM
SP – Cesar Carrillo – $0.33MM
RP – Trevor Hoffman – $6.5MM
RP – Scott Linebrink – $1.75MM
RP – Cla Meredith – $0.33MM
RP – Jon Adkins – $0.33MM
RP – Brian Sweeney – $0.33MM
RP – Scott Cassidy – $0.33MM
RP – Justin Hampson – $0.33MM
RP – Mike Adams – $0.335MM
Buyouts
C – Mike Piazza – $0.75MM
1B – Ryan Klesko – $0.5MM
It seems that the Padres have a mere $36MM tied up after entering 2006 with a $70MM payroll.
Behind the plate, the Padres got enormous production from the Piazza/Bard combo. Bard’s previous body of work may not be starting catcher-worthy, but it should be worth a shot. Of course, if Piazza wants to play for one year and $3-5MM, you can’t turn that down. He was a steal at $1.25MM in ’06.
Powered by a huge June-July stretch, Adrian Gonzalez finally justified his first overall selection in the 2000 draft. Kevin Towers made out like a bandit in the Adam Eaton deal, netting Gonzalez and Chris Young. This isn’t hindsight, either – the deal was a clear win for San Diego the day it was made.
With Barfield at second, it’s important to remember that he’ll be entering his age 24 season. He’s solid, he’s cheap, and he should keep getting better.
The Pads didn’t get any offense from the shortstop position – a .699 OPS in total. If Greene’s finger heals up this winter, he should get one more chance to establish himself as a healthy, productive player.
Another glaring hole is, of course, third base. Reasonable solution: Japanese player Akinori Iwamura. Like Kenji Johjima last winter, Iwamura looks like a bargain from where I sit. You can forget silly A-Rod fantasies, but there are other decent options. Adrian Beltre has been on the radar for a while now, and a swap for Mike Lowell is feasible. Of course, that means giving up talent and decent money for league averageish production at the position. Like I said – Iwamura.
The Pads are also in need of a decent backup infielder. Tony Graffanino, Craig Counsell, and others are floating around.
Left field: Dave Roberts did a decent job as the team’s leadoff hitter this year. But given the free cash, I think the Padres should inject this power position with, well, power. Here I have 16 impact hitters listed who could be acquired. Setting the sights a little bit lower, there’s Moises Alou, David Dellucci, Luke Scott, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Frank Catalanotto, and Luis Gonzalez. Adding one of these guys over Roberts would sacrifice some defense, however.
In the rotation, there’s a need for at least one guy – two if you don’t want to give a spot to Thompson or Carrillo. Carrillo, one of the team’s better prospects, is currently rehabbing a sore elbow.
The Padres seem to be the favorites for Barry Zito, but don’t expect their usual hometown discount. I think this would be a good signing. Right right, he’d be overpaid. But the Padres have the need and the money. Sometimes you have to overpay. Peavy/Young/Zito would be a fearsome front three, and Hensley is an above average #4.
Really can’t complain about the bullpen. Linebrink might get relatively big bucks as a free agent after 2007, but right now it’s a solid group.
If I was Kevin Towers, I’d probably sign Zito, Iwamura, a backup infielder, and a mid-tier left fielder. If I had money left over and Piazza was the right price I’d bring him back.
By Tim Dierkes | at
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Padres will be involved in the Barry Zito sweepstakes this winter. Other interested parties include the Mets and Dodgers. The Padres will free up a significant amount of cash with Chan Ho Park and Ryan Klesko coming off the books.
Park is actually the one Padre who retains Scott Boras as his agent, so perhaps that will serve as a cautionary tale for Kevin Towers and Co. Zito has actually been fairly mediocre this year:
2006 League Averages for Pitchers:
AL: 4.53 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 3.18 BB/9, 6.41 K/9, 1.13 HR/9, 9.49 H/9
NL: 4.50 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 3.38 BB/9, 6.64 K/9, 1.11 HR/9, 9.27 H/9
Zito:
3.79 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 3.93 BB/9, 6.20 K/9, 1.11 HR/9, 8.41 H/9
Based on those peripherals, Zito actually deserves a 4.38 ERA according to Component ERA. I’m not knocking Zito – there’s something to be said for that kind of consistency. It’s just that Zito’s no ace. He’d actually fit quite well in San Diego, where Jake Peavy can where the ace label well if healthy. Ditto for Chicago, where Carlos Zambrano is top dog.
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