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Phillies To Meet With Top Four Free Agent Shortstops

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The Phillies have meetings scheduled with all four of the top free agent shortstops, reports Jayson Stark of the Athletic. They’ll sit down with the representatives for each of Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts before the Winter Meetings kick off in earnest next Monday.

Philadelphia is widely seen as likely to land one member of that group, with reports suggesting they’re particularly dialed in on Turner. They’ve also been previously linked to Bogaerts, and it’s easy enough to see why they’d cover all bases in meeting with Correa and Swanson as well. The Phils have a need for middle infield help to pair with youngster Bryson Stott, and adding one of the top shortstops available is the most straightforward way to achieving that.

The expectation is that Correa and Turner will command the two largest contracts, with Boagerts and Swanson coming in behind them. Correa is the youngest of the group at age 28, while Turner has the most consistent offensive track record over the past couple seasons and is arguably the game’s top baserunner. Bogaerts is a similar caliber of hitter to Correa and Turner but has faced some questions about his ability to stick at shortstop into his mid-30’s. Swanson’s coming off a Gold Glove-winning season that he paired with arguably the best offensive showing of his career, but his general track record at the plate is behind the other three.

All four players are commanding ample interest and could top $150MM on the open market. The Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Twins, Braves, Red Sox and Orioles are among the teams that have been tied to at least one of the shortstops available. Turner, who’s reportedly the Phillies’ primary target, has been linked to a pair of the NL’s other top teams.

Ken Rosenthal wrote last night that the Padres were among the clubs with interest in Turner, and Rosenthal and Dennis Lin at the Athletic report tonight that San Diego has already met with Turner and his representatives twice this offseason. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune also characterizes the club’s interest in Turner as legitimate. Acee suggests that San Diego actually signing one of the top shortstops remains a long shot, considering the Friars already have Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth as middle infield options. However, the Union-Tribune writes that San Diego could put Cronenworth on the trade market to alleviate the logjam if they surprisingly landed one of the top shortstops. The Friars have also been tied to Bogaerts at multiple points this offseason.

The Dodgers have been connected to both Turner and Bogaerts on various occasions. Juan Toribio of MLB.com wrote yesterday that L.A. and Turner have spoken in recent weeks. Toribio suggests the Dodgers could be reluctant to meet Turner’s asking price, but it seems likely the sides will remain in contact as the Winter Meetings approach.

Continuing with the theme, the Twins have a sit-down scheduled with Correa in the next few days, tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North. Minnesota has maintained their interest in retaining Correa throughout the offseason, and they’ve reportedly floated him a number of long-term deals.

Jason Castro Announces Retirement

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Catcher Jason Castro took to Twitter today to announce he is retiring from major league baseball. The veteran spent parts of 12 seasons in the big leagues with the Astros, Twins, Angels and Padres. “Over the last 15 years of pro ball, I have been blessed with many incredible opportunities and have met so many people along the way that helped me achieve more than I could have ever imagined,” Castro said, before going on to thank all of the people who supported him along the way.

Castro was selected by the Astros out of Stanford with the 10th overall pick in the 2008 draft. He was considered one of the top 100 prospects in the game by Baseball America in 2009 and 2010, making his MLB debut in the latter season. Prospect evaluations at that time spoke highly of his defense and approach at the plate but questioned whether he would provide much power in the big leagues. During Spring Training in 2011, he suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament and a damaged meniscus, leading to him missing that entire season.

Once recovered, Castro got things back on track in 2012 and truly established himself in 2013, with that now seeming like the best season of his career. An All-Star that year, he hit 18 home runs, a number he was never able to match again. His final batting line on the year was .276/.350/.485, good enough for a wRC+ of 129, indicating he was 29% better than the league average hitter. When combined with his strong defensive work, he was worth 3.9 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs, the highest such total he ever managed.

In subsequent seasons, Castro settled in as a bit of a defensive specialist but one that wouldn’t be disastrous at the plate. From 2014 to 2017, his wRC+ fell between 80 and 94 in each campaign, fairly average for a backstop. When combined with his solid glovework, he was worth between 2.1 and 2.8 fWAR in each of those four seasons.

Between 2016 and 2017, Castro signed a three-year, $24.5MM contract with the Twins. As mentioned, the first year of that deal saw Castro continue as a solid glove-first backstop. However, injuries took a toll from there on out. In May of 2018, he was diagnosed with a torn meniscus in his right knee and had to undergo season-ending surgery. Though he continued to be a competent major leaguer, 2017 was the last season in which he played more than 80 games.

After spending some time with the Angels and Padres, Castro returned to where it all began by signing a two-year deal with the Astros prior to 2021. In August of this year, he required season-ending knee surgery, meaning that he wasn’t active for the club’s World Series victory. Nonetheless, it was a nice finishing touch for Castro’s career. As he says at the end of his retirement announcement, “What a way to end it.”

Castro hangs up his spikes with 952 games played, 678 hits, 166 doubles, 9 triples, 97 home runs, 368 runs scored, 328 runs batted in and 15.2 fWAR. MLBTR commends him on a fine career and wishes him the best in his post-playing endeavors.

Padres Claim Sean Poppen From Diamondbacks

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The Padres announced that they have claimed right-hander Sean Poppen off waivers from the Diamondbacks.

Poppen, 29 in March, has seen some time in the majors in each of the last four years with the Twins, Pirates, Rays and Diamondbacks. Over those four seasons, he’s thrown 67 1/3 innings with a 5.08 ERA, 22.3% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 42.9% ground ball rate.

Poppen was frequently optioned by the D-Backs this season and also threw 25 1/3 innings in the minors. In that time, he posted a 4.62 ERA, with a 17% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 41% ground ball rate. He’s now out of options, meaning the Padres will have to keep him on the major league roster or else place him back on waivers at some point.

There had been no previous indication that Poppen had been designated for assignment but Arizona evidently put him on waivers in recent days. Their recent signing of Miguel Castro gave them a full 40-man roster but this claim drops them to 39. That move was perhaps made with an eye towards next week’s Rule 5 draft.

Padres Notes: Shortstops, Turner, Stammen

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The Padres have been rumored to be a surprise entrant in the market for the “Big Four” shortstops and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says this could “possibly even” include Trea Turner.

Since the Friars were recently connected to the shortstop market generally and Xander Bogaerts specifically, it’s not shocking that they would have some degree of interest in Turner as well. However, despite the “Big Four” shortstops often being lumped together, there’s a difference between them. MLBTR predicted Turner and Carlos Correa to earn $32MM per season or higher while Bogaerts is projected at an average annual value of $27MM and Dansby Swanson at $22MM.

Those might seem like small differences but they are magnified for a Padres team that paid the competitive balance tax in each of the past two years. The CBT system features escalating penalties for repeat payors, with a third consecutive year over the line resulting in a 50% tax for every dollar over. The Padres currently have a CBT number of $230MM, according to Roster Resource, just $3MM shy of this year’s lowest luxury tax threshold of $233MM. The second threshold is $253MM, something that the Padres would certainly go over if they add one of the top shortstops, at which point their spending would be subject to a 62% tax.

Since the Padres are also looking to upgrade their rotation, it’s always seemed hard to picture them laying out a huge contract for a shortstop and paying such a tax premium to do so. There’s also the on-field fit, which isn’t super smooth since they have Ha-Seong Kim and Fernando Tatis Jr. as shortstop options. It’s been suggested they could add a shortstop and play Kim at second, Jake Cronenworth at first base and Tatis in the outfield, but it’s probably easier to just sign a first baseman or a left fielder.

Elsewhere in Padres news, Rosenthal reports in a separate column that the club is likely to re-sign reliever Craig Stammen. The veteran, who turns 39 in March, recently spoke about his desire to return in 2023 despite dealing with a shoulder injury in the second half of the season. He’s been in San Diego for six seasons now and it seems like there’s interest on both sides in making it seven.

Gaylord Perry Passes Away

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Hall of Fame pitcher Gaylord Perry has passed away, according to multiple reports. He was 84 years old.

Perry made his MLB debut with the Giants in 1962 and wound up sticking around the majors through 1983, getting into 22 different seasons with eight different ball clubs. Perry gained a reputation around the league for his use of a spitball, leading to frequent suspicion from opposing teams and inspection from umpires.

Regardless, Perry went on to rack up numerous accolades in his career, making the All-Star team in 1966, 1970, 1972, 1974 and 1979. He pitched a no-hitter against the Cardinals in 1968. He lead the league in wins in 1970, 1972 and 1978 and also won the Cy Young in the latter two of those seasons.

In his career, he played for the Giants, Indians, Rangers, Padres, Yankees, Braves, Mariners and Royals. He got into 777 MLB games, tossing over 5,000 innings. He is one of just 24 pitchers in history to crack the 300-win barrier, with his final tally of 314 placing him 17th on the all-time list. He’s also just one of 18 pitchers to strike out more than 3,000 hitters. His 3,534 punchouts are the eight-most in the history of the majors.

Perry wasn’t particularly shy about his use of the spitter, even co-authoring a book on the subject in 1974, while he was still in the midst of his playing career. Despite his open admittance of using the illegal pitch, he was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1991, his third year on the ballot.

MLBTR sends our condolences to his family, friends, loved ones, former teammates and all those mourning him today.

Astros Notes: Abreu, Bagwell, Coaches

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For over a month now, it’s seemed like the White Sox would let Jose Abreu join a new organization and install Andrew Vaughn at first base. That became official this week, when Abreu signed with the Astros. However, the Sox didn’t just completely turn their back on him. “The White Sox made me an offer, it was a really good offer, but we’ll leave it at there,” Abreu said in his introductory press conference, per Chandler Rome of The Houston Chronicle.

Without any details, it’s hard to say exactly how hard the White Sox tried to retain Abreu, but it wasn’t enough either way. Abreu’s interest seems to have been quite wide, as it’s already been reported the Guardians made a three-year offer and he was also a top target of the Red Sox. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Padres also made a three-year offer while Craig Mish of the Miami Herald reports that the Marlins were at the table as well. Regardless, what’s done is done and Abreu is an Astro now.

One person who was involved in the deal coming together was former Astro Jeff Bagwell, as Crane said he and assistant general manager Bill Firkus flew to flew to Miami to negotiate the deal with Abreu, per Rome. It was recently reported amid the departure of general manager James Click that Bagwell has been working with the front office in some capacity, sitting in on meetings and things of that nature. Bagwell is apparently one of Crane’s most trusted advisors and it seems his level of engagement has increased in Click’s absence. However, it doesn’t appear as though it will go much farther, as he insisted to members of the media that he does not want the open general manager position and wouldn’t interview for it if asked, per Rome.

In other Astros news, Mark Berman of Fox 26 reports that Gary Pettis will return as the third base coach, with pitching coach Bill Murphy returning for 2023 as well. Pettis has been in that role since 2015 while Murphy just got his job title a year ago when Brent Strom parted ways with the club.

Padres, Diamondbacks Among Teams Interested In Xander Bogaerts

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11:40am: The Athletic’s Peter Gammons cites front office officials from three other teams who are of the belief that Bogaerts will not return to Boston (Twitter link). As he did with regard to Bogaerts playing another position, however, Boras outwardly denied the report, telling Alex Speier of the Boston Globe that Bogaerts is “open to any and all voices in the free agent market” and adding that he and Bogaerts “have not closed any doors on anyone.”

10:04am: Next week’s Winter Meetings are generally expected to serve as a catalyst for what’s been a slow-moving free agent market. As the league’s biggest offseason convention approaches, the interest for some of the top players available is beginning to come into focus.

Xander Bogaerts is part of a loaded shortstop class, and a number of teams have checked in with his representatives at the Boras Corporation. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports the Diamondbacks and Cubs have expressed interest, while adding that previously-reported suitors like the Phillies and Dodgers are in the mix. Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller recently checked in with Scott Boras about Bogaerts’ willingness to play a position other than shortstop. Boras, however, flatly rejected the possibility; the agent tells Rosenthal “Xander is playing shortstop” and denied that San Diego would prefer to move him off the position.

San Diego’s interest in Bogaerts isn’t a new development. Marino Pepén listed the Padres as a suitor last week, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post has suggested they’re involved in the top of the shortstop market more generally. The Friars are seemingly serious enough in their pursuit to gauge Bogaerts’ amenability to move off the position.

The infield mix at Petco Park is already crowded, although there are a number of multi-positional options who can move around. Manny Machado is locked in at third base, while the rest of the current infield figures to be made up by some combination of Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth. Kim has proven himself an excellent defensive shortstop and earned an everyday role with a .251/.325/.383 showing this past season. Tatis was expected to be the franchise shortstop after a brilliant start to his career earned him a $340MM extension, but he’s now under consideration for a move to second base or the outfield after missing all of 2022 due to injury and a performance-enhancing drug ban. Cronenworth is a quality defender at the keystone, but the Friars have floated the possibility of kicking him over to first base with Josh Bell and Brandon Drury hitting free agency.

Adding a first base/designated hitter type might be the most straightforward path to building out the offense, but there’s no harm for Preller and his staff in considering other avenues. Adding another middle infielder while kicking Cronenworth to first base would give San Diego an elite defensive infield, while Bogaerts is among the top offensive players available regardless of position. He’s long been mentioned as a candidate to move off shortstop towards the end of a free agent deal after years of subpar defensive marks, but he quieted those concerns (at least in the short term) with arguably the best season of his career with the glove. Bogaerts rated as four runs above average in more than 1200 shortstop innings by both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast this past season. He hasn’t played anywhere else since 2014 and while there’s little question he could handle a less demanding position like second or third base, it doesn’t seem he’s willing to do so.

There are a number of other teams with worse internal options than the Padres that’d surely be willing to plug Bogaerts in at his longtime position. The Diamondbacks relied on rookie Geraldo Perdomo this year, and he looked overmatched to the tune of a .195/.285/.262 line in 500 plate appearances. Nick Ahmed is under contract and can play excellent defense, but he’s always been a below-average hitter and lost almost all of this past season to surgery on his throwing shoulder.

Arizona general manager Mike Hazen is plenty familiar with Bogaerts from his previous work in the Red Sox’s front office, so it’s little surprise they’re interested in adding him given the uncertain shortstop outlook. The question is whether a Diamondbacks team that has had a payroll south of $100MM in each of the past two seasons would be willing to commit a deal of that magnitude. MLBTR predicts a seven-year, $189MM contract for Bogaerts. The D-Backs already have roughly $98MM in salary commitments for next season, per Roster Resource, so adding a salary in the realm of $27MM annually would require owner Ken Kendrick signing off on a major spending hike relative to recent levels.

The Cubs have a cleaner long-term payroll outlook that makes them a viable fit for any of the top shortstops. Nico Hoerner is a quality incumbent, but he’s already expressed a willingness to move to second base to accommodate a big-ticket acquisition. Roster Resource projects Chicago’s 2023 commitments around $127MM, and they’ve opened each of the past two seasons with payrolls in the $140MM to $150MM range. Chicago has pushed spending north of $200MM in the past. There’s room for an aggressive offseason, but president of baseball ops Jed Hoyer and his front office have to weigh whether to invest in the middle infield against other weak points on the roster like center field, first base, catcher and the back of the rotation.

Bogaerts rejected a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, so any signing team will have to forfeit draft choice(s) and/or international bonus pool space to sign him. Boston has consistently maintained retaining him is their top priority, though extension talks dating back at least to Spring Training haven’t gotten anywhere. The Phils are widely expected to be in play for a top shortstop, but reports suggest they’re more dialed in on Trea Turner at the moment. The Dodgers could certainly turn to any of the other shortstops if Turner walks, while the Twins reportedly have Bogaerts as their top fallback if they can’t retain Carlos Correa.

Padres Sign Julio Teheran To Minor League Deal

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Veteran right-hander Julio Teherán has signed with the Padres on a minor league deal, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The contract could pay Teherán up to $6MM if he reaches the majors and maxes out the incentives on the deal. Teherán is represented by Mato Sports Management. 

A two-time All-Star, Teherán returns to the National League, where he had previously spent nine seasons with the Braves, pitching to a 3.67 ERA in 1360 innings, before departing to join the Angels in 2020 and the Tigers in 2021. His tenure with the Angels was less successful, as the righty pitched to a 10.05 ERA in 31 1/3 innings with a poor 13.4% strikeout rate and a high 10.7% walk rate. Despite these substandard results, Detroit signed the hurler to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training. Teherán would eventually join the major league roster but would be shut down for the season with a right shoulder strain after a single start. 

The 31-year-old, joined the Staten Island FerryHawkes of the Atlantic League for the 2022 season before having his contract purchased by the Toros de Tijuana of the Mexican League. The Toros de Tijuana released Teherán in August, but he would soon latch on with the Sultanes de Monterrey, also of the Mexican League. Over the 2022 season, Teherán pitched 68 innings across 13 starts, posting a 3.57 ERA with a 56:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio.  

The 11-year MLB vet will look to find a spot on San Diego’s staff, who have seen starters Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea depart to free agency. However, Nick Martinez figures to earn some starts with his new contract and the Friars have been connected to highly sought-after free agent pitcher Koudai Senga, potentially leaving Teherán as a Triple-A depth piece. 

Latest On Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts

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Shortstop Carlos Correa is one of the top free agent available and he is unsurprisingly drawing plenty of interest. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that eight teams are interested in his services, but the Twins are expected to “go hard” in their attempts to retain him.

Heyman doesn’t mention any teams by name other than the Twins, who are already known to be making a concerted effort to keep Correa in Minnesota. It was reported earlier this week that they have made multiple offers to him, with varying lengths between six and ten years, presumably with higher salaries on the shorter deals and lower salaries on the longer deals. In addition to the Twins, Correa has already been publicly linked in some way to the Giants, Dodgers and Cubs. Since Heyman says eight teams are involved, it appears there are four “mystery teams” at the table.

As to who those mystery teams are, we can only guess, though there would be some logical fits. Mariners’ president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has said the club is planning to pursue shortstops to play second base in deference to J.P. Crawford. The Phillies are known to be looking for a shortstop this winter. The Braves will need to replace Dansby Swanson if they can’t re-sign him but they might not have the financial ability to go after Correa. The Orioles have been speculated as a fit given that general manager Mike Elias was working for the Astros when Correa was drafted and developed, though they don’t have a track record that would suggest they’d give out the type of contract it would require to land him.

One surprising team that could be in the mix is the Padres. Heyman doesn’t directly connect the club to Correa but he does say they are considering the free agent shortstops. The Padres have been extremely aggressive in recent years and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller shouldn’t really be counted out on anyone, but it’s still unexpected to see the club connected to this market. The Friars got by without Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2022, who missed the first half of the season due to a wrist injury and the second half due to a suspension for a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs.

In his absence, Ha-Seong Kim stepped up and had an excellent season. He hit .251/.325/.383 for a wRC+ of 105 while stealing 12 bases and providing excellent defense. All of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average gave him positive grades, allowing him to produce 3.7 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. With Tatis set to return in 2023 once he serves the final 20 games of his suspension, it would seem the position is already crowded enough as it is. However, Heyman’s report indicates the club is open to the idea of moving Tatis to the outfield, something he’s dabbled with in the past, while bumping Kim into a utility role.

It had been previously reported that the club was considering an alignment of Kim at short, Tatis at second and Jake Cronenworth at first. It seems that this new plan would be somewhat similar but with Tatis going to the outfield, perhaps replacing Jurickson Profar, who is now a free agent, in left. Regardless of how it would eventually play out, Heyman lists Xander Bogaerts as their preferred option for this plan. Marino Pepén also connects the Padres to Bogaerts, though he says they are behind the Phillies and the Red Sox in the bidding.

Payroll might be a factor for the Friars, as Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll at $210MM and their competitive balance tax number at $230MM, just under the first CBT threshold of $233MM. The club has nudged over the CBT line in the past two years, but signing a marquee shortstop would surely mean blowing past the first threshold and flirting with the second, which is $253MM. As a third-time payor, the Padres are already facing a 50% tax on all spending over the first the first threshold plus a 12% surcharge on spending over the second. That means every dollar they go over $253MM would be taxed at a 62% rate. The club has continually surprised onlookers with their aggression in recent seasons, meaning it shouldn’t be completely ruled out. But it would be quite a noteworthy escalation, especially with the club connected to other big free agents like José Abreu and Kodai Senga.

As for the Giants, who have been connected to the free agent shortstops for some time, they will have to answer the Brandon Crawford question if they succeed in signing a new shortstop. He’s been with the club since being drafted back in 2008 and has been a mainstay at shortstop for them since 2011. He turns 36 in January, has one year remaining on his extension and is coming off a down year in 2022. He made multiple trips to the injured list and posted a batting line of .231/.308/.344, wRC+ of 87. DRS and UZR were down on his work in the field, but he did earn 7 OAA.

As to how the club would handle a new shortstop with Crawford on the roster, it seems that it would depend who the shortstop is. According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, Crawford would move to third base if they signed Correa, but Trea Turner or Dansby Swanson would be installed at second base. That’s likely a reflection of the fact that Turner and Swanson have lesser throwing arms than the other two. According to the Statcast arm strength leaderboard among shortstops, Swanson comes 48th out of 50 while Turner is 26th. Crawford is a bit higher at 19 while Correa is at #6. Correa’s excellent arm strength arguably makes him a fit for third base, but his overall defense is superior to Crawford’s at this stage of their careers. Regardless of how sensible the arguments may be, it’s at least a bit surprising that the Giants are apparently willing to supplant Crawford at shortstop under the right conditions.

Details On Nick Martinez’s New Contract With Padres

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Nick Martinez opted out of his Padres contract at the end of the offseason but he and the club agreed to a new deal last week. The club made it official today by announcing the deal, and Dennis Lin of The Athletic added some more information about the incentives.

As a recap, it’s technically a three-year, $26MM deal but with a convoluted structure. Martinez will get a $10MM base salary in 2023, which is the straightforward part. After that, the club will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, essentially a two-year, $32MM extension. If they decline, Martinez will get to decide whether or not to trigger two player options valued at $8MM each, essentially a two-year, $16MM extension. Since player options are considered guaranteed, that $16MM option and the $10MM base in 2023 combine to form a $26MM guarantee.

Adding some extra layers of complication are the incentives that Lin outlines, which reflect the uncertain role Martinez will play going forward. He started 2022 in the rotation but eventually got bumped to the bullpen, with his new contract seemingly accounting for a similar trajectory in 2023. Martinez will get paid based on games started, earning an extra $500K at 10, 15, 20 and 25 starts. In terms of relieving, he’ll get $100K at 10 appearances and 20 appearances, $200K at 30, 40, 50 and 60 appearances. For games finished, he will get $200K each at 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35 and 40 finishes.

That’s technically $4.4MM in available incentives, though there’s no way Martinez unlocks all of those. For instance, if he makes 25 starts, he’s unlikely to trigger many of the relief incentives, since a healthy pitcher will make about 32-33 starts over a full season. However, this contract allows Martinez to continue increasing his earnings whether he’s starting or relieving, so long as he’s healthy.

The aforementioned option values can also change, as Lin adds that there are escalators based on Martinez hitting certain innings totals, making the All-Star team or finishing in the top 10 in Cy Young voting. Those details aren’t publicly known at this time.

Going forward, the Friars have Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell taking up the first three spots in the rotation. Martinez is a candidate to take one of the spots at the back end, but subsequent moves by the team could push him to the bullpen. Last year, he posted a 4.30 ERA as a starter and a 2.67 as a reliever. His strikeout, walk and ground ball rates were all better out of the bullpen than the rotation.

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