Giants Discussing 10-Year Deal With Bryce Harper
8:10pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that the Dodgers’ interest in Harper is still “predicated on [a] short-term deal,” though he adds that the Giants are indeed in “heavy” on Harper.
1:26pm: All of the teams still engaged with Harper’s camp — including, presumably, the Dodgers and Phillies — have discussed contracts of at least one decade in length, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter).
1:16pm: The sides are discussing a ten-year deal, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Salary levels are not known, but Pavlovic says the Giants’ offer would “likely give Harper a chance at the record dollar figure he has been looking for.”
11:48am: The Giants met again yesterday with Bryce Harper, according to a report from Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group. CEO Larry Baer and president of baseball operations made a return trek to Las Vegas.
This news is all the more notable given that the rival Dodgers have jumped into the mix on Harper. Having now met twice with Harper and agent Scott Boras, it seems the San Francisco organization remains a serious pursuer.
The Phillies are also continuing their efforts to land the prized free agent, who is surely hoping to spark a late bidding war. Philadelphia is reportedly willing to commit over $300MM in a deal, with one other (as-yet-unidentified) team perhaps also playing in that range.
There had been “optimism” that the Phils would work out a deal by this point, but more recent developments have kept the door open to other organizations. As a Vegas native, Harper may well prefer to land on the west coast, though that’s all still guesswork even at this late stage of the market proceedings.
It’s possible we’re seeing some final positioning here from the remaining suitors. Whether the last bidding is underway isn’t known, but there have been indications that Harper will make a call this week and it stands to reason that he’d prefer to get into camp sooner than later.
Phillies’ Offer To Harper Reportedly Worth More Than $300 Million
The Phillies have put forth an offer to free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper that would guarantee him more than $300MM, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). That would indicate a willingness to top Manny Machado‘s record-setting $300MM free-agent deal with the Padres. It’s not clear if Philadelphia’s offer is also greater than Giancarlo Stanton‘s overall record $325MM contract.
Heyman suggests that there’s at least one other club that has expressed a willingness to top $300MM to sign Harper, which would be a surprising new development at this stage in his free agency. While the Nationals offered Harper an extremely deferred $300MM back in late September, there have been no recent indications that any of the remaining Harper suitors would come close to that mark
As of yesterday, the Dodgers and Giants were said to be the only two teams still in the mix for Harper, and both were said to be pursuing him on shorter-term contracts with sizable average annual values. The presence of another $300MM+ offer, if accurate, would represent a considerable change of heart for either of those California-based clubs (or the presence of another team involved in the bidding). Joel Sherman of the New York Post explored the situation yesterday, noting that the Dodgers appear willing to offer Harper a record-setting annual value — “at least $35 million a year, perhaps closer to $40 million” — but only over four or, at absolute most, five years. Sherman writes that he spoke to one person involved who “insisted not to undersell the Giants,” as well.
Over the weekend, the Phillies were optimistic of completing a 10-year deal with Harper by yesterday — an outcome that clearly didn’t happen and was likely impacted by the Dodgers’ Sunday-evening meeting with Harper in Las Vegas. Harper still expects to finally make his decision this week, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, bringing to an end an exhausting saga and likely resulting in at least one type of contractual record.
Bryce Harper Expected To Make Decision This Week
12:35pm: Harper’s decision is expected to come this week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes. At the moment, the only three teams in the mix for him are the Phillies, Dodgers and Giants.
10:00am: The Dodgers’ interest in Harper is still on a shorter-term pact, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Harper and agent Scott Boras are still eyeing a long-term deal. Mark Feisand of MLB.com tweets that the Phillies are the only team currently negotiating a “true” long-term deal with Harper and agent Boras. The Giants, like the Dodgers, are still only interested at shorter terms than the 10-year offer Philadelphia is reportedly willing to put on the table.
7:38am: The Dodgers have jumped back into the Bryce Harper bidding and held a meeting with him as recently as last night, Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports (via Twitter). Dodgers officials, including manager Dave Roberts, were seen in Las Vegas to meet with Harper. Per Jeff Passan and Ramona Shelburne of ESPN (Twitter links), the Dodgers re-engaged with Harper’s camp two weeks ago, although at the time, they were still hoping to secure Harper on a shorter-term pact. Harper, however, has been seeking at least a 10-year deal and has not budged from that thinking, Passan notes.
While there has not been any firm indication that the Dodgers are now willing to put forth a decade-long offer (or longer), the meeting is nonetheless quite notable at this juncture in Harper’s free-agent saga. Over the weekend, Phillies owner John Middleton also visited Harper in his home city, and reports at the time indicated that there was optimism surrounding the possibility of finalizing a 10-year deal with Harper as soon as tonight. That could still prove to true, but the question for many onlookers had been whether the Phillies were bidding against themselves. That no longer appears to be the case, as the Vegas meeting between the Dodgers and Harper suggests a rather sincere level of interest on their end.
Los Angeles has already added one big-ticket outfield item this winter, signing A.J. Pollock to a four-year deal worth $55MM, and bringing Harper aboard would give them a new right fielder to go along with their new-look center fielder. It’d also muddy the outfield mix a bit, leaving only one spot with Joc Pederson and Cody Bellinger in need of at-bats there. Bellinger could also see time at first base, of course, although that would come at the cost of playing time for 2018 breakout slugger Max Muncy.
That said, the Dodgers are never ones to shy away from cultivating extreme levels of depth, and bringing Harper into the fold would create an extraordinarily deep mix of offensive options for Roberts. Of course, the Dodgers have also reportedly explored deals involving Pederson this winter as well, and signing Harper could also prove to be a harbinger for the trade of another outfielder.
The Dodgers already traded away Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Alex Wood in what looked at the time to be a trade that opened both roster space and luxury tax breathing room for a possible Harper addition, but the only notable signing they’ve made since that swap was Pollock’s four-year pact. Adding Harper would definitively skyrocket the Dodgers into luxury tax territory, as they’re already only about $4MM shy of that threshold, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.
Spring Injuries: Davis, Palka, Mesa, Sandoval
With Spring Training games underway, we’ll use this post to track some of the minor aches and pains as they flare up around the game…
- A mild left calf strain has kept Khris Davis on the shelf for the beginning of Spring Training, per MLB.com’s Jane Lee. There’s not much cause for concern, but the A’s don’t want to rush Davis until he is back at full strength. He’s listed as day-to-day for now, though the issue has flared up a couple of times since the start of camp. Shutting down all baseball activity is the prudent move for Davis, who is of course a central piece for Oakland’s offense. The 31-year-old DH hit exactly .247 in each of the last four seasons, while his slugging has increased year-over-year, from .505 in 2015 to .524 in 2016 to .528 in 2017 to .549 last year. Davis is a key contributor in just about any scenarios that has the A’s challenging Houston for the AL West crown.
- White Sox right fielder Daniel Palka was pulled from a Spring Training game in the second inning today with left hamstring tightness, per Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Palka was hitting cleanup for the White Sox, who lost their first two spring contests in a pair of split-squad games on Saturday. Palka became a fan favorite while slugging 27 home runs for the Southsiders as a 26-year-old rookie last year, but he’ll need to develop other parts of his game to survive Chicago’s rebuild. His overall slash line of .240/.294/.484 combined with subpar defense in the outfield corners leaves much to be desired.
- Highly-touted Cuban prospect Victor Victor Mesa left Sunday’s Spring Training game with a right hamstring strain, per Wells Dusenbury of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. The Marlins 22-year-old outfielder left the game after running out a grounder. He will return to Jupiter to be re-examined, though it would not appear to be a serious injury. He’s listed as day-to-day. Hamstring injuries can linger, of course, and the Marlins will want to be extra cautious with their prized acquisition as they prepare him for his first professional season stateside.
- Pablo Sandoval tweaked a side muscle, though it does not appear to be anything serious. The Giants will hold him back a day or two, but rest appears the only course of action as of now, per Henry Schulman of the SF Chronicle (via Twitter). Sandoval isn’t the player he once was, but he did rebound at least a little bit from his horror show days in Boston. Last season, Sandoval hit .248/.310/.417 across 252 plate appearances, which is production the Giants will take given their minimum salary commitment.
Quick Hits: Harper, Phillies, Giants, Barreto, A’s
Rule changes are coming to major league baseball and – if these changes occur – they could favor a long-term union between the Phillies and Bryce Harper, writes Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Adding the designated hitter to the National League, though still very much in question, would help preserve Harper’s body long-term and keep his bat in the lineup even if his glovework doesn’t rebound after a difficult 2018. Salisbury also mentions the elimination of the shift and the proposed three-batter minimum for pitchers as rule changes that could benefit Harper and the Phillies in the long-term. Of course, these changes would be implemented league-wide, so if in fact they would benefit Harper, they’d benefit him wherever he lands. It’s particularly curious to list the potential adoption of the designated hitter as a benefit to a Harper-Phillies marriage, as there are fifteen teams not based in Philadelphia who could claim that benefit today (though he’s not wrong). Speculation of the future can begin in earnest as soon as Harper puts pen to paper, which some think will happen by tomorrow latest, while Buster Olney of ESPN suggests a resolution could come by Tuesday. As we await the big decision, let’s see what else is happening around the league…
- The answer in San Francisco continues to be “not much” as fans await a splashy move from new president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi, per Al Saracevic of the San Francisco Chronicle. It’s not all doom-and-gloom for Giants fans, some of whom are holding out hope for a Harper signing. Harper continues to make sense for the Giants, who lack established bats in the outfield, but signing him would be a quick pivot for Zaidi, who has preached patience in the early going. Of course, Harper is a unique case. If he ends up with the Giants, fans will certainly have something to be excited about, and if he doesn’t, they can at least look forward to reaping the long-term benefits of Zaidi’s prudence.
- Franklin Barreto began a new endeavor in his career with five innings in left field yesterday. The starting second base job belongs to Jurickson Profar for now, and it appears as if the bench role will go to Chad Pinder, per MLB.com’s Jane Lee. Barreto was the A’s top prospect per Baseball America in both 2016 and 2017, but after struggling through two short stints in the majors the last two seasons, Barreto’s future in Oakland is muddled. Jed Lowrie’s free agency seemed an opportunity for Barreto to stake his claim to the keystone, but the Profar acquisition thrust Barreto back into limbo. He’ll be 23 this season, slated to begin the year R Triple A where’s he has played most of the last three seasons. Barreto has only one option year remaining, making 2019 a make-or-break year. Pinder, meanwhile, has three option years remaining, but established his value to the big league club last season by hitting .258/.332/.436 while appearing at every position except pitcher and catcher.
NL West Notes: Dodgers, Dbacks, Tomas, Giants, Ferguson
Dodgers Chairman Mark Walter asserts no directive came from ownership to keep the Dodgers’ payroll under the luxury tax, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times. The decision-making is trusted entirely to team president Stan Kasten and president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman, who kept the Dodgers under the tax line last season and have thus far done the same this winter. Kasten defended the Dodgers’ spending last month at their annual FanFest, reminding listeners that the Dodgers are among the biggest spenders in the league, while touting the incentives available for teams who stay under the tax. In the aggregate, the Dodgers seem united in their organizational philosophy, taking what’s become the popular position league-wide, that while spending beyond the tax line is, in theory, worthwhile under certain circumstances, the prudent path is to remain under the tax line whenever possible. The qualifier the Dodgers can add here, is that it’s prudent for them because they continue to win their division. With 6 straight division titles and a seventh in the offing (or so say projections), spending beyond the tax line could be viewed as a form of gluttony. To their point, the Dodgers have made strides to improve their club with the additions of A.J. Pollock, Joe Kelly and Russell Martin. Still, their abstention from the Manny Machado and Bryce Harper sweepstakes continues to needle some people outside the organization, prompting these kinds of rebuttals from Dodger leadership. Now, let’s check in on some player news from the NL West…
- Yasmany Tomas had a disappointing 2018 that saw his removal from the Diamondbacks 40-man roster as he languished the entire season at Triple A, his first season without a major league appearance since 2015 when he made the trip stateside. It may appear particularly grim from the outside, but Tomas views last season as one of his more productive years, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez. Regardless of how you view Tomas’ 2018 – a year in which he hit just .262/.280/.465 in Triple A – Tomas has a legitimate opportunity to make the Arizona roster. If he can provide enough defense at first and/or in the outfield corners, he (theoretically) fits nicely as a right-handed option to Jake Lamb at first. His power output as never been at issue, as Tomas has slugged wherever he’s been, but it’s every other aspect of the game that will make-or-break the 28-year-old’s shot at the big leagues.
- Giants Rule 5 draft selection Drew Ferguson is more analytically-focused than your typical outfield prospect, writes the San Francisco Chronicle’s Henry Schulman. To get a better gauge on flyball trajectories, Ferguson studies wind speed, park dimensions and surface temperatures to prepare. He is studious, no doubt, but sticking with the Giants all season long is the challenge he faces. The 26-year-old will need to stay on the active roster or the injured list or else be returned to the Astros, who drafted him in the 19th round in 2015. Ferguson made it as far as Triple A in each of the last two seasons for Houston, where in 2018 he hit .305/.436/.429. After impressing with an overall batting line of .297/.393/.455. across four minor league seasons, Ferguson should get a longer leash in San Francisco, who hopes to deploy him as a right-handed complement for Stevan Duggar. Ferguson faces competition from a broad if not very deep group that includes Cameron Maybin, Mac Williamson, Gerardo Parra, Yangervis Solarte, Chris Shaw, Austin Slater, Craig Gentry, Mike Gerber and John Andreoli. At present, the Giants not only have an open competition for backup roles, but the starting jobs in both corners are up for grabs as well, providing Ferguson more than a fair shake to make the team.
Giants Sign Cameron Maybin
FEBRUARY 22: via TwitterThe deal would pay Maybin $1.75MM in the majors and has $250K in plate appearance-based incentives, per Baggarly ().
FEBRUARY 17: Maybin has joined the Giants, Maria Guardado of MLB.com tweets.
FEBRUARY 16: Per Andrew Baggarly and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Giants are “finalizing” an agreement to bring outfielder Cameron Maybin to Spring camp as a non-roster invitee.
Maybin, 32 in April, has spent time with four teams over the last two seasons, dropping an identical 88 wRC+ in each. Mired for the last three seasons in fourth-outfielder limbo, the former first-rounder has seen his once-vaunted center-field defense decline sharply with age. In nearly 2,800 innings at the position since the beginning of 2015, the longtime MLB vet has posted -26 DRS, though his numbers did normalize a bit in the last two seasons.
Rushed to the big leagues at the ripe age of 20, Maybin was quickly shipped in the Miguel Cabrera trade to Miami, where he never quite found his footing at the plate. A cross-country swap to San Diego offered respite, and Maybin’s 105 wRC+, 4.3 fWAR 2011 season precipitated a 5 year, $25MM extension for the young outfielder. Tough times followed, though, and the Friars cut their losses just three seasons in.
The then-29-year-old looked to turn a corner in 2016, when he slashed .315/.383/.418 for Detroit in part-time play, though his BABIP (.383) was hardly congruent with his hard-hit rate (24.7%), and he again faced regression the next season. All told, Maybin has slashed a respectable .254/.322/.368 (92 wRC+) in 3,848 lifetime MLB plate appearances, which mirrors closely his Steamer projection (92 wRC+) for the upcoming season.
The Giants would figure to have a place for Maybin in center, as the weak side of a Steven Duggar platoon, but the up-for-grabs outfield, the sloppiest projected crop in years by the bay, could align with him in a full-time role at either corner. Either way, he’ll jostle with a veritable grab-bag of candidates, including Gerardo Parra, Mac Williamson, Austin Slater, Chris Shaw, John Andreoli, Cesar Puello, Mike Gerber, Craig Gentry, Drew Ferguson, and Anthony Garcia, for any number of roles. ZiPS, interestingly, projects Ferguson, the Rule-5 selection, and Garcia, the longtime Cardinal farmhand, to post the highest WAR totals of any Giants outfielders in the upcoming season.
Giants Claim Hanser Alberto, Designate Jake Barrett For Assignment
Infielder Hanser Alberto is on the move once again, as the Orioles announced Friday that he’s been claimed off waivers by the Giants. In a corresponding move, the Giants announced that they’ve designated right-hander Jake Barrett for assignment.
San Francisco will be the fourth organization for Alberto this offseason, as the versatile 26-year-old has gone from the Rangers to the Yankees to the Orioles via the waiver circuit. Baltimore designated him for assignment earlier this week upon claiming lefty Josh Osich off waivers from the Giants. In some respects, the pair of move effectively amounts to a trade of the two assets.
Alberto, who has experience at second base, shortstop and third base, is a .309/.330/.438 hitter in 1000 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s never managed to carry that production over to the MLB level, however, as evidenced by a meek .192/.210/.231 slash through 192 MLB plate appearances (all coming with the Rangers).
Barrett was only acquired by the Giants earlier this month. New president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has already shown early in his tenure that he’ll carry some of the trends that have been characteristic of the Dodgers over to his new club. Namely, he’s been unafraid to continually shuffle players in and out of the final spot on the Giants’ 40-man roster, regularly claiming players who’ve been designated for assignment only to try to pass them through waivers once again. In the case of outfielder John Andreoli, that worked out nicely, and San Francisco will seemingly hope that a similar situation plays out with Barrett.
The 27-year-old Barrett has a career 4.05 ERA with 8.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 1.35 HR/9 and a 44.2 percent ground-ball rate in 93 1/3 MLB innings — all coming with the Diamondbacks. He’s struggled since turning in an strong rookie season back in 2016, but he did average better than 11 strikeouts per nine innings pitched over 53 1/3 frames in Triple-A last year.
Giants To Sign Fernando Abad
The Giants have reached agreement on a minors deal with lefty Fernando Abad, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The deal will not include a MLB camp invite; Abad would earn a $800K salary in the majors.
Abad, 33, had seen big league time in eight-straight seasons before falling short in 2018. He might well have been back in the bigs at some point, but it emerged during camp that he was facing a lengthy PED suspension. Abad was ultimately hit with an 80-game ban that sidelined him for most of the year. He did not sign with a team thereafter.
Over 317 2/3 total innings at the game’s highest level, Abad carries a 3.65 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. Historically, he has been quite a bit more effective against opposing lefty hitters (.237/.287/.383; 144:31 K/BB) than those who own the platoon advantage (.258/.338/.412; 127:82 K/BB).
If he can force his way into the competition, Abad could join a long list of competitors for pen roles. Beyond a reasonably lengthy slate of existing hurlers with at least some MLB experience, newcomers include Rule 5 pick Travis Bergen, switch-pitcher Pat Venditte, DFA trade acquisitions Jake Barrett and Trevor Gott, and minor-league signees Nick Vincent and Keyvius Sampson. There may not be many open spots up for grabs at the moment, but that could change if the club swings late deals on its best relievers.
Giants Sign Nick Vincent
The Giants have agreed to a contract with right-hander Nick Vincent, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic tweets. Vincent will join the MLB side of camp, but on a minor-league deal, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area (Twitter link).
Vincent, 32, owns a sparkling 3.17 ERA over his 332 total MLB innings, so the track record of outcomes is certainly an appealing one. He ended the 2018 campaign with a personal-worst 3.99 ERA, though, and ended up being non-tendered when the Mariners decided not to pay a projected $3.5MM salary.
Given the outcome of his foray onto the open market, MLB teams aren’t terribly optimistic as to Vincent’s ability to keep up his career earned run average. The signing seems like quite a nice move from the Giants’ perspective, though, as Vincent has not only managed to find success over a long stretch but has been supported (at times, at least) by a closer examination.
Vincent, in fact, is something of a darling of certain ERA estimators, though that’s due more to his earlier-career combination of excellent K/BB rates and low home run tallies. More recently, Vincent has proven less than immune to the long ball. Still, metrics have generally valued him as a useful pitcher — including both last year (3.75 FIP, 4.51 xFIP, 3.72 SIERA) and over his full career to date (3.09 FIP, 3.85 xFIP, 3.27 SIERA).
Statcast, likewise, gives cause for optimism. Vincent has been among the league’s best at limiting exit velocity over the past two seasons. During the Statcast era, opposing hitters have managed only a .283 wOBA against Vincent. And that’s actually just a shade higher than the .279 xwOBA that the computers would have anticipated.