Giants Rumors

Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey kicked off his team’s offseason last month by declaring that pitching would be his focus this offseason. That led to plenty of speculation about the possibility of the Giants being major players at the top end of the free-agent rotation market, but chairman/owner Greg Johnson threw some cold water on those hopes this week. In a Q&A with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, Johnson pushed back against the idea of a long-term deal for any pitcher this offseason and specifically called out a preference for shorter-term arrangements.

“We’re in need of one, possibly two [starting pitchers],” Johnson told Slusser. “We’ve got a lot of options in the organization and hopefully somebody emerges, but I’m not sure you can count on that at this point, and it’d be nice for some of those younger arms to get another year of experience in Triple-A as well. As Buster has said, I think we’re hesitant about any pitcher on long-term deals when we have a young core sitting there. So it’s a question of what is available in the marketplace and what we can do on a shorter term basis.”

Certainly, the definition of “shorter term” is subjective. That doesn’t mean the Giants will traffic exclusively in one-year contracts when looking to address the rotation. However, it seems quite clear that at least for the time being, ownership doesn’t have a strong appetite for the weighty long-term deals expected to be commanded by top free agent names like Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease and star NPB right-hander Tatsuya Imai (assuming Imai is ultimately posted for MLB clubs).

The Giants’ rotation is headed by ace Logan Webb. He’s followed by veteran Robbie Ray and 2025 breakout righty Landen Roupp. After that trio, free agent Justin Verlander — whom the Giants have interest in re-signing — was the only other San Francisco pitcher to start more than 10 games this season. The Giants thinned out their rotation depth this summer when trading longtime top prospect Kyle Harrison to the Red Sox as part of the Rafael Devers blockbuster.

As Johnson alluded to, the Giants have plenty of in-house options, but there’s no certainty among the group. Hayden Birdsong shined in the bullpen early on but struggled so much after a move to the rotation that the Giants optioned him to Triple-A. He was tagged for a 6.23 ERA in another 10 Triple-A starts. Right-handers Kai-Wei Teng and Trevor McDonald got looks late in the season, but the former struggled badly while the latter made only two MLB starts after posting a 5.31 ERA in 29 Triple-A outings. Prospect Carson Whisenhunt and deadline pickup Blade Tidwell have varying levels of upside but haven’t proven themselves in the majors yet. Righty Keaton Winn missed much of the season due to injury and was hit hard in Triple-A when healthy.

Both the trade and free agent markets offer plenty of rotation possibilities for Posey & Co. to explore. Seven of the top ten names on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s top 40 trade candidates were starting pitchers. Another 16 starting pitchers cracked our Top 50 Free Agent list. Not all of the free agents will command long-term deals, and none of the trade candidates in question are signed beyond the 2028 season.

If the goal is to pursue shorter-term arrangements — presumably three or fewer years — the free agent market would have options like Merrill Kelly, Chris Bassitt, Nick Martinez, Zack Littell and Tyler Mahle, among others. A reunion with Verlander remains possible, and plenty have already pointed out the fact that new Giants skipper Tony Vitello coached Max Scherzer in college. Right-hander Cody Ponce set the single-season and single-game records for strikeouts in the Korea Baseball Organization this season and has drawn MLB interest. His brother-in-law is a plenty recognizable name in San Francisco: George Kittle.

Suffice it to say, there’s a wide array of options on the market even if the plan is to forgo lengthy commitments. An aversion to another long-term deal is somewhat understandable, given that the Giants have Devers signed through 2033, Willy Adames signed through 2031, Matt Chapman signed through 2030, Jung Hoo Lee signed through 2029, and Webb signed through 2028. That said, there’s room on the payroll for another hefty contract, particularly with Ray’s contract drawing to a close at the end of the 2026 season (thus subtracting a $25MM salary from the 2027 books).

At present, RosterResource projects the Giants for a payroll of roughly $170MM. That’d be right in line with last year’s Opening Day figure. That mark includes projected arbitration salaries for non-tender candidates Andrew Knizner, Joey Lucchesi and JT Brubaker. Dropping that trio would lower the projected mark, but only by a few million dollars. Still, the Giants trotted out an Opening Day payroll as high as $208MM just two seasons ago, in 2024. Johnson was amenable to raising payroll when asked by Slusser and even acknowledged that he’s comfortable crossing the $244MM luxury tax threshold “in the right situation.” The Giants’ current tax number sits just north of $193MM.

The rotation stands as just one area of need. San Francisco clearly has needs in the bullpen — Johnson acknowledged as much to Slusser — and has holes in the lineup at second base and in right field. Unless the team puts together a trade for one of its currently weighty contracts, the Giants will have to increase payroll to meet those needs. Of the contracts on the books, only Ray’s $25MM salary seems plausible to move. (The Giants aren’t going to consider trading Webb.) However, trading Ray would only further create a need for innings, making that scenario at least somewhat counterproductive.

One way or another, the Giants will need to add at least one starter (ideally two), multiple relievers and at least one bat (again, ideally two). It’s a long to-do list for Posey and general manager Zack Minasian — one that portends an active winter in the Bay Area.

Readers — Giants fans and otherwise — are highly encouraged to read the entire Q&A. It’s packed with candid comments from Johnson on a variety of topics, including his thoughts on the forthcoming implementation of the ABS challenge system, Posey’s first year on the job as president, and his early impressions of Vitello — among many other points.

Giants chairman Greg Johnson discussed several topics in an interview with John Shea of the San Francisco Standard, including some talk about how the team plans to spend this winter.  As usual with any upper-level executive, Johnson spoke in generalities about payroll rather than citing any specific figures, and downplayed the idea of any huge spending splashes.  For instance, while Johnson cited “starting pitching help” as “probably No. 1 on the list” of offseason priorities, he said the Giants would “be very cautious about” signing a pitcher to a nine-figure contract.

As to whether or not the Giants would exceed the threshold of $200MM in spending, “it just depends on what’s out there.  We may be over.  We may be under,” Johnson said.  “We’re going to look at each situation and make the decision and see how it fits into not only next year, but the longer-term plans.”

San Francisco has exceeded the Competitive Balance Tax line four times in their history.  They paid the tax in each of the 2015-17 seasons, as a function of the rising costs associated with trying to keep their championship core from the early 10’s teams together.  The club also narrowly exceeded the tax line in 2024, as a function of the Giants making a series of pricey acquisitions during the 2023-24 offseason.

In 2025, the Giants ducked back under the tax line, even after some more prominent moves — i.e. extending Matt Chapman, signing Willy Adames to a seven-year/$182MM free agent deal, and their June trade for Rafael Devers.  Even with these salaries involved plus major commitments to Logan Webb, Jung Hoo Lee, and Robbie Ray, San Francisco’s books are relatively clean since almost all of the team’s money is tied into just these six players.  Ray is also a free agent next winter, leaving more space open for longer-term commitments even though Johnson is wary of such contracts.

“We can go up [in spending], but I think the risk is having too many people on similar six-year-type deals that create less flexibility to the payroll,” Johnson said.  “I think you can always do things on a shorter basis, but you’ve got to be careful about having too many of your players being late 30s at a high-payroll level.  I think you have to balance that.”

San Francisco fans may not love hearing about ownership’s financial caution, yet pretty much any owner or front office executive would share Johnson’s concerns on overspending now on players who could soon be future albatrosses.  This was, in fact, the very situation the Giants found themselves in during their previous highest-spending years, once some of the key players from their World Series teams started to decline.

There’s also the fact that the Giants are far enough under that $200MM line that there’s room for the team to spend rather substantially this winter while still remaining under the threshold.  Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimates the Giants at roughly a $152.7MM payroll and a $182MM tax figure for 2026, while RosterResource’s estimates are a bit higher ($169.3MM payroll and a $192.4MM tax number).

Whichever estimate you prefer, Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey figures to have financial flexibility in pursuing more big-ticket targets this winter.  Upgrading the pitching staff (not to mention the team’s other needs) likely won’t come cheap, and with just one winning record in their last nine seasons, the Giants figure to again be very active in trying to get back into contention.