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At Least 5 Teams Interested In Josh Harrison

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Josh Harrison had a year to forget in 2018, leading the Pirates to buy out the veteran infielder after the season and end a relationship that began in 2009. Nevertheless, no fewer than five teams have shown interest in Harrison this offseason, according to Fancred’s Jon Heyman, who lists the Astros and Giants among clubs that have at least considered the 31-year-old. Heyman previously reported interest from the Yankees, Reds and Nationals.

Harrison’s coming off an up-and-down tenure in Pittsburgh, where he debuted in 2011 and managed to reach the 2.0 fWAR in two individual seasons. He was at his best during a 4.8-fWAR showing in 2014, which led the Pirates to award him an extension worth a guaranteed $27.3MM early in 2015.

Harrison went on to combine for an unspectacular 5.4 fWAR during the rest of his stint with the franchise. He was especially disappointing in 2018, when he totaled 0.3 fWAR and batted .250/.293/.363 (78 wRC+) with minimal power (eight home runs, .113 ISO) across 374 plate appearances. While Harrison only logged a .285 weighted on-base average in 2018, he posted an even less inspiring .275 xwOBA, per Statcast. Of course, it’s worth noting Harrison’s season began in terrible fashion when he suffered a fractured left hand – an injury that sidelined him from mid-April to mid-May and could have played a role in his drop in production.

Harrison, to his credit, is just two years removed from a 2017 campaign in which he was among the Pirates’ most valuable players. He also comes with vast experience at second and third base, two positions where he has been a plus defender for the majority of his career. But it could be difficult for Harrison to garner playing time at either position in Houston, which boasts superstars Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman at those spots and also has Aledmys Diaz and Yuli Gurriel on hand as versatile options. Like the Astros, the Giants feature established players at second and third – Joe Panik and Evan Longoria – but those two joined Harrison in struggling last season. The Giants’ new president of baseball operations, Farhan Zaidi, seems to be looking for infield help as a result.

Latest On Giants Front Office Hires

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With the winter meetings only a day away, attention league-wide is focused on player movement, but the music hasn’t stopped on the annual game of musical chairs played in front offices and dugouts around the league. News is trickling out of San Francisco about the top thinkers being hired to advise Giants president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi on matters of scouting.

Zack Minasian was tabbed to lead pro scouting efforts, per the Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly (via Twitter). Minasian spent fourteen years with the Milwaukee Brewers, the last two as a special advisor to GM David Stearns. He spent six years prior as the director of pro scouting, the same role he assumes in San Francisco. As Baggarly explains in a later tweet, Minasian’s position is principally responsible for the coordination of the scouting staff for both the major and minor leagues, a tremendous undertaking given the current climate around baseball. On a fun note that Baggarly explores in his full article on the Athletic (subscription link), Minasian’s father is the longtime clubhouse attendant for the Texas Rangers. The elder Minasian gave the younger his first opportunity in baseball as his assistant when junior was 11-years-old.

Another new hire in San Francisco, Michael Holmes, will replace longtime amateur scouting director John Barr, Baggarly tweets. Holmes has worked on the other side of the bay in Oakland since 2004, most recently as assistant scouting director. Holmes will be charged with managing amateur scouting efforts, including oversight of the draft. He has big shoes to fill, as Barr’s tenure began in 2008 with the drafting of Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford. Recent drafts have proved less fruitful, however. Holmes will attempt to modernize the Giants scouting department, finding ways to utilize the plethora of advanced metrics now available to front offices.

Giants To Sign Cameron Rupp

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The Giants have agreed to a minor-league deal with backstop Cameron Rupp, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). It comes with a MLB Spring Training invite and a potential $750K salary if Rupp can crack the roster.

Of course, Rupp failed to see any action in the bigs last year, breaking a five-year streak in which he had. That came as something of a surprise, as the 30-year-old had seen rather extensive action previously with the Phillies and provided some real thump for a backstop.

Over his 1,127 total plate appearances at the game’s highest level, Rupp owns a .234/.298/.407 batting line with 39 home runs. Despite his on-base issues, that’s a solid amount of offense given the position. Splitting his time last year between the top affiliates of the Rangers, Mariners, and Twins, Rupp slashed .223/.320/.425.

Of course, teams generally prioritize defensive capabilities in their backup catchers, and Rupp’s reputation is not exactly stellar in that regard. He graded as one of the game’s worst framers in 2017, though he had scored in range of average previously. It seems likely Rupp will come to camp bidding for a chance to back up Buster Posey behind the plate in San Francisco.

Giants Notes: Bumgarner, Kikuchi, Pence, Offseason, Righetti

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Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi dropped some thoughts on a pair of left-handed pitchers in an interview today on KNBR. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi recently kicked off a round of speculation on MadBum with a report suggesting the Giants were open to discussing him and had held talks with the Brewers and Phillies. Zaidi cast quite some doubt on that characterization, as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area relays on Twitter. The newly minted San Francisco exec says a peer with another org rumored to have been in touch on Bumgarner cracked: “Hey, I hear we’re talking to you guys about Madison Bumgarner. Should we be?”

Zaidi further joked: “That gives you a little sense of the accuracy of some of the stuff that’s out there.”

A bit more out of San Fran…

  • In that same chat, Zaidi gave greater credence to the idea that the Giants could have interest in Yusei Kikuchi, per Dalton Johnson of NBC Sports Bay Area. The club has scouted Kikuchi “extensively,” according to Zaidi, who predicted that the market is likely to build on the Japanese hurler in advance of and into the coming Winter Meetings. Whether and to what extent the Giants will push for a deal remains to be seen, though Zaidi noted that as a West Coast club, the Giants could be a geographic fit for Kikuchi. Kikuchi has until early January to come to terms with a big league organization, and at 27 years of age, he’s young enough that he could be a key contributor for the Giants in a couple of years even if they do embark on some degree of a rebuild over the next year or two.
  • In a Q&A with NBC’s Jessica Kleinschmidt, Hunter Pence reveals that he’s heard from “a couple” teams this offseason but has not yet heard from the Giants. However, CEO Larry Baer told Pence that the Giants would be represented this offseason when the veteran outfielder heads to the Dominican Winter League to test out some adjustments he’s made to his swing in an effort to rediscover his form at the plate. Pence discusses some of those changes with Kleinschmidt and unsurprisingly adds that he would “absolutely” be open to a return to the Giants. As Pavlovic notes in an overview of the Giants’ roster, outfield depth is just one of several areas that Zaidi could look to add some veteran help this winter. Backup catcher, the starting rotation and bullpen are among the other ares that seem likely to be addressed.
  • The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly also runs through the many needs facing Zaidi this offseason (subscription required), suggesting that the Giants will look at some “non-splashy” additions to the outfield mix — such as a right-handed-hitting platoon partner for Steven Duggar, for instance. Both Pavlovic and Baggarly point out that substantial rotation depth was a hallmark of Zaidi’s Dodgers, so the organization could look to field a group of options that is eight or nine arms deep (presumably, with some of those options coming on minor league deals and being stashed in Triple-A).
  • Despite the changes in the front office, former pitching coach Dave Righetti, who spent the 2018 season as a special advisor to former GM Bobby Evans, will “definitely” have a role with the team, reports Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. Righetti worked with Evans to help evaluate pitchers during Spring Training, and he also evaluated the organization’s minor league arms and weighed in on some prospects leading up to the draft. Righetti previously spent 18 seasons on the Giants’ Major League coaching staff.

Projecting Payrolls: San Francisco Giants

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With the Winter Meetings set to kick off next weekend, we’re moving to the tenth installment of this series. Here are links to the previous team payroll projections:

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves
New York Yankees
Chicago White Sox
Boston Red Sox
Minnesota Twins
Milwaukee Brewers

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we look into a club whose on-the-fly re-stocking in 2018 largely backfired, keeping them out of the playoffs for the second consecutive season for the first time since 2009: the San Francisco Giants.

Team Leadership

Unlike many of the teams that we have examined in this series, the Giants’ ownership structure is highly diversified and somewhat secretive. 2008 began with Peter Magowan’s 15th year as managing general partner of the club. Magowan began the year in turmoil in the aftermath of the Mitchell Report and ended the year having transitioned his management role to Bill Neukom. Neukom ran the show only until 2011 at which time Charles B. Johnson became the plurality member in the LLC that owns the ball club. Johnson reportedly owns approximately 25 percent of the team as part of a group of approximately 29 co-owners.

Despite the complicated ownership structure, the front office enjoyed tremendous continuity. Brian Sabean ascended to the role of general manager in 1997 and held that job through the 2014 season before climbing to Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations, with Bobby Evans handling day-to-day operations starting in 2015. No more. Sabean was reassigned out of Baseball Operations following the 2018 season, at which time Evans was fired.

The executive tasked with re-imagining the San Francisco front office? Former Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi. Zaidi spent a decade in the Bay Area with Oakland before spending the last four years in Los Angeles. As the new President of Baseball Operations, Zaidi will oversee the first major transition in San Francisco’s baseball management in two decades.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Giants, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. For the Giants, this time frame covers a period of rebuilding that ultimately fueled three World Series winners. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

Those payrolls were remarkably stagnant through 2010 before taking a leap in 2011 that became an annual tradition throughout much of the years that followed.

During this period of increased spending, the Giants did reach luxury taxpayer status for the first time in 2015, remaining there for each of the next two seasons before resetting their status in 2018 by falling under the threshold. The team paid just $8.8 million in aggregate luxury tax payments over those three seasons, so the tax hasn’t substantially impacted team spending over our time frame.

While Major League spending has increased dramatically over the time period above, the Giants haven’t allocated substantial resources to international amateur bonuses. It seems as though the cash increases were focused nearly exclusively on the Major League roster that made regular trips to late October throughout this decade.

Future Liabilities

Get ready for lots of big numbers for multiple years.

The big-money, long-term commitments are staggering.

Cueto, owed $71 million over the next three years presuming that the Giants buy out his 2022 option, was a star during his debut season with San Francisco in 2016, producing 5.5 WAR in leading the team’s rotation as they made their most recent playoff trip. Cueto’s 2017 season was marred by numerous injuries, including the dreaded forearm strain that served as a precursor to a nightmarish 2018 spent largely on the disabled list before he underwent Tommy John surgery last August. As a result, the Giants likely expect little to nothing from him again in 2019.

Like Cueto, Posey underwent a significant operation in August. Unlike Cueto, Posey has produced at a consistently elite level throughout the course of his contract, until this year’s career-worst 106 wRC+. While Posey’s hip operation figures to hamper his efforts to prepare for the season, he should be ready around Opening Day.

Samardzija was solid during his first year in San Francisco before a strong second year in 2017. Unfortunately, the remarkably durable righty finally succumbed to the injury bug, losing most of 2018 to a shoulder injury that lingered into the start of the offseason. With only two years left on his deal, it’s possible that the Giants have received as much value as they’ll be getting from that contract.

The next two players are both longtime Giants who played key roles on championship teams but have settled into roles as solid regulars instead of impact stars. Both Belt and Crawford are young and talented enough to rebound in 2019, but neither contract represents excellent value, especially Belt’s as the first base market has largely collapsed since he signed his extension.

The next two contracts look bad. Really bad. Melancon arrived in San Francisco to shore up the back of a wobbly bullpen. However, bouts with forearm injuries have limited his chance to make an impact. When he has pitched, he’s been solid but certainly nothing close to what the Giants expected from him given his contract. Longoria appears headed down a startlingly similar path, struggling mightily in his first season since arriving from Tampa Bay via trade. At 33, Longoria faces long odds to reattain star status, but the Giants would likely be happy if he returned to being a solid regular for at least a few more years.

We’ll skip to Watson for a moment. The veteran lefty structured his contract in such a way that the Giants stayed just under the luxury tax threshold, and he rewarded the team by delivering the finest season of his career in 2018, despite an across-the-board drop in velocity.

Now for the skipped contract: Bumgarner. The longtime ace and World Series hero finds himself at a crossroads that would have been inconceivable two years ago. Bumgarner made at least 31 starts each year from 2010-16, but an April 2017 shoulder injury suffered in a dirt bike accident, perhaps combined with years of significant usage, has changed his trajectory going forward. The Giants are willing to listen on their ace as he heads toward free agency next year.

In the aggregate, San Francisco is as committed to their current roster as any team in the league. Overhauling the roster would require a bevy of big-salary moves from Zaidi.

Given this amount of guaranteed money, it is perhaps unsurprising that the Giants have very little in the way of arbitration-eligible talent. After they said goodbye to Hunter Strickland and Gorkys Hernandez, key reliever Will Smith is, incredibly, the only arbitration-eligible Giant who hasn’t already agreed to terms with the club. Here are their arbitration projections, noting that both Sam Dyson and Joe Panik have already come in at salaries south of those projected by MLBTR and Matt Swartz:

While Smith missed all of 2017, he returned in 2018 and filled the role of bullpen ace that Giants leadership hoped to see Melancon fill.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

Very little regarding the specifics of the 2019 payroll. Given their recent payroll push into the baseball stratosphere of spending, the Giants are largely expected to maintain a significant payroll next year. While Zaidi has hinted at something of a mini-rebuild — perhaps including a Bumgarner trade — there’s no indication from management or ownership that payroll will plummet.

Kerry Crowley of The Mercury News expects payroll to stay in line with that of current years, coming in shy of the luxury tax line but among the top figures in the league.

Are the Giants a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

Probably. It’s a bit tougher to see a Machado fit given that the Giants would likely have a whale of a time trying to move Crawford or Longoria right now. But Harper makes plenty of sense for a team in need of youth, power, and an influx of talent. He certainly checks all three boxes. As a kid from Nevada, it’s likely that the Giants at least get a chance to pitch the young slugger on the benefit of playing on the West Coast.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

The Giants are much tougher to peg than most other teams given the relative silence of their front office and the equally likely possibilities that they rebuild on the fly or go for a return to glory in 2019.

Entering the next phase of the offseason, the Giants hold a payroll of $156.0 million, $162.8 million for luxury tax purposes.

If the Giants can get Harper to commit to the team, I expect that his commitment will be accompanied by ownership’s commitment to enter taxpayer territory for the next two or three years in order to field a viable winner. It’s going to take additional cash to get there.

If Harper doesn’t come to town, expect to see the team remain under the tax line, albeit arriving close to that figure. With the tax threshold at $206 million and somewhere north of $13 million counting for player benefits, the Giants figure to want that tax payroll to come in around $190 million to leave them with a bit of wiggle room.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $185 million cash ($204 million for luxury tax)

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $29 million

Giants Likely To Hire J.P. Ricciardi In Advisory Role

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Former Blue Jays general manager and Mets special assistant J.P. Ricciardi is finalizing a new contract to join the Giants’ front office as a senior advisor, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter). It’ll be the first of what should be several front office additions for new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. Andrew Baggarly and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported talks between the two sides (Twitter link).

The 59-year-old Ricciardi spent eight years as a special advisor to the general manager in New York played a prominent role in the front office between the time at which Sandy Alderson stepped down as general manager and Brodie Van Wagenen was hired as Alderson’s successor. Ricciardi, along with fellow advisor Omar Minaya and assistant GM John Ricco, shared the workload of overseeing the Mets’ baseball operations department for much of the summer following Alderson’s departure. The Mets announced last month that the two sides had “mutually” agreed to part ways.

Ricciardi is no stranger to the Bay Area, having come up through the ranks with the Athletics in the late 80s and early 90s. The veteran exec broke into the front office side of the game as an area scout with the A’s in 1986 and rose to the titles of scouting supervisor, national crosschecker and, in 1999, director of player development. The Blue Jays hired him as their general manager in 2001 — a role he’d hold for eight years before being replaced by Alex Anthopoulos in 2009. Ricciardi has worked extensively with both Alderson and current A’s executive vice president Billy Beane in the past and will bring more than three decades of scouting and player development experience to his new post if and when the organization makes the hiring official.

Pitching Market Notes: Eovaldi, Yankees, Happ, Kikuchi, Gray, MadBum

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After a busy day of arbitration decisions, it’s worth taking stock of some recent developments in the broader market. We’ve already touched upon some major storylines today, with looks at Patrick Corbin (link), Zack Greinke (link), and Carlos Carrasco (link). Here’s more …

  • Though Corbin seems to be captivating the market at present, chatter on Nathan Eovaldi is also “heating up,” per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). Unsurprisingly, the Red Sox and Astros are presently seen as prime contenders to land him. With the American League shaping up to be another clash of titans, those organizations are positioned t stake some dough on Eovaldi’s upside.
  • The Yankees are a major player on Corbin, of course, but also some other arms — and not just as a backup plan. Indeed, per Jayson Stark of The Athletic (via Twitter), the club could even add another significant starter if it does get Corbin. That’d be quite a surprise, given that the team would appear to have a clear starting five if Corbin signs, but perhaps there’s a way to pull something off that would still make sense and leave the club with immense rotation depth.
  • Meanwhile, southpaw J.A. Happ is said to have “ten teams chasing” him at this point, per Jon Heyman of Fancred. One of those is the Brewers, who’d presumably like to bolster their rotation but also don’t appear to have an immense amount of money to use. Of course, giving up on Jonathan Schoop clears a big piece of payroll, so long as the club finds a way to address its infield needs without using all the savings.
  • There’s also a “strong” market for Japanese hurler Yusei Kikuchi, Heyman tweets. Unsurprisingly, west coast clubs — the Dodgers, Padres, Giants, and Mariners, at least — appear to be lining up for the 27-year-old. It’s still hard to know what kind of salary and duration he’ll be able to command. But as this particular list of clubs shows, Kikuchi’s unusual youth will play a major role in his market by opening the door to quite a few organizations to pursue him.
  • Elsewhere, the Yankees are still trying to offload an asset in Sonny Gray. Per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, with GM Brian Cashman saying he has discussed a multitude of different scenarios involving Gray, including some larger deals. That suggests that the Yanks are comfortable hanging onto Gray for a while as they sort through the possibilities, rather than putting him on the market and taking the best deal then available.
  • Gray is as good as gone from the team’s perspective, but that’s clearly not the same situation for Giants ace Madison Bumgarner. The burly southpaw is reportedly on the table. But that doesn’t mean he’ll be priced at a level that will lead to a deal. Indeed one organizational source tells Heyman (Twitter link) they “don’t see [Bumgarner] going anywhere this winter.” Certainly, the Giants have little need to dump Bumgarner if they aren’t getting something worthwhile in return. Teams with interest, though, will remain wary of a big price for one season of a player with recent shoulder woes and some performance questions.

Giants Designate Hunter Strickland, Gorkys Hernandez

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The Giants have designated righty Hunter Strickland for assignment, making him a surprise free agent. Also heading out the door is outfielder Gorkys Hernandez.

Strickland’s projected arbitration hit was only $2.5MM, which seems quite reasonable for a flamethrowing reliever who has generally been quite successful. Still, he’s known also for his temper and is coming off of his worst season in the majors.

Over 45 1/3 innings in 2018, Strickland worked to a 3.97 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9. A self-sustained finger injury broke up the campaign, with Strickland showing reduced velocity upon his return.

Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To Non-Tender Deadline

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Tonight marks the deadline for MLB clubs to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. As such, there’ll be a slew of pre-tender agreements announced today — particularly for arbitration-eligible players who might have otherwise been non-tender candidates. As we saw yesterday (and frequently in previous seasons), players agreeing to terms before the tender deadline will often sign for less than they’re projected, as the alternative in some cases may simply be to be cut loose into a crowded free-agent market.

We’ll track today’s pre-tender agreements here, with all referenced projections coming courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz…

  • Giants infielder Joe Panik settled at a $3.8MM price tag, per Heyman (via Twitter). That’ll represent a savings as against the $4.2MM projected salary. Many had wondered whether the new San Francisco front office would move on from Panik, who has one more year of arb eligibility remaining. Meanwhile, Heyman tweets that reliever Sam Dyson has agreed to a $5MM pact. That also comes in $400K below his projection.
  • The Padres settled with righty Bryan Mitchell for $900K, Heyman tweets. Mitchell had been a non-tender candidate at a projected $1.2MM sum.
  • Newly acquired first baseman C.J. Cron has agreed to a $4.8MM contract, the Twins announced. He projected to a $5.2MM salary; this becomes the latest of many indications of the unstable market position of defensively limited slugger types.
  • The Indians have settled with righty Danny Salazar for $4.5MM, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. He was projected at $5MM, with some wondering whether the Cleveland organization might non-tender him. The talented hurler missed the entire 2018 season. Meanwhile, righty Nick Goody is slated to earn $675K, Heyman tweets.
  • Southpaw Jonny Venters avoided arb with the Braves, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets. It’s a $2.25MM deal, sitting well over the $1.5MM projection, though certainly his unusual career path could have led to some additional arguments for a stronger raise.
  • The Cardinals announced an agreement with lefty Chasen Shreve. Terms aren’t yet known. The 28-year-old had projected to take home $1.2MM for the 2019 campaign, but will settle at $900K per Heyman (via Twitter).
  • Pirates righty Michael Feliz has avoided arbitration with the club, Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic was among those to report on Twitter. Feliz projected at a $900K salary and will get $850K, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. It’s a split agreement that promises $375K in the minors, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (via Twitter).
  • Infielder Tyler Saladino has agreed to a $887,500 salary with the Brewers, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. That comes in below the $1MM he projected to earn.
  • The Athletics settled at $2.15MM with Liam Hendriks, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter), all of which is guaranteed. That’s just where he projected ($2.1MM) on the heels of a fascinating 2018 season. Hendriks was dropped from the MLB roster in the middle of the season but returned late in the year in dominant fashion as the A’s “opener.”
  • Lefty Sammy Solis agreed to terms with the Nationals to avoid arbitration, the club announced. He profiled as a potential non-tender candidate, so it seems likely the organization pushed to get something done before the deadline. Solis, who has an intriguing power arsenal but struggled through a homer-prone 2018, projected at $900K. He’ll earn $850K, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (Twitter link).
  • The Athletics announced that they’ve agreed to a one-year deal with righty Ryan Dull in advance of tonight’s deadline. He’ll get $860K, Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets, which checks in pretty closely with his $900K projection. Dull, 29, posted a 4.26 ERA with 21 strikeouts and seven walks in 25 1/3 innings of relief in 2018.
  • Heyman also tweets that the Padres and Greg Garcia, whom they claimed off waivers earlier this offseason, settled on a one-year deal worth $910K that aligns with his $900K projection. Garcia hit .221/.309/.304 in 208 plate appearances with St. Louis last season and is a career .248/.356/.339 hitter in 860 plate appearances.

Earlier Agreements

  • The Brewers and Hernan Perez avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $2.5MM, as first reported by Heyman. He’ll check in a bit shy of his $2.7MM projection but remain on hand as a versatile utility option in Milwaukee.
  • Left-hander Tony Cingrani and the Dodgers avoided arb with a one-year deal worth $2.65MM. That checks in just south of the lefty’s $2.7MM projection. Cingrani turned in a brilliant 36-to-6 K/BB ratio in 22 1/3 innings but was also tagged for a considerably less palatable 4.76 earned run average.
  • The Red Sox announced that they’ve agreed to terms on a one-year contract for the 2019 season with right-hander Tyler Thornburg. They’ve also tendered contracts to the remainder of their arbitration-eligible players, though the terms of those deals will be negotiated in the coming weeks. Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston tweets that Thornburg will earn $1.75MM i 2019 and can earn another $400K via incentives. I’m told that includes $100K for reaching each of 45, 50, 55 and 60 appearances. Thornburg, 30, was roughed up to the tune of a 5.63 ERA in 24 innings for the Sox this season — his first action for Boston since being acquired prior to the 2017 season. His Boston tenure has been utterly derailed by thoracic outlet syndrome and the ensuing surgery. Thornburg was excellent for the 2016 Brewers, and Boston parted with Travis Shaw in order to acquire him, so the Sox will surely hope that a regular offseason of rest and further removing himself from TOS surgery will get the righty back on track. This will be Thornburg’s final season of club control. He’d been projected to earn $2.3MM.

Giants “Willing To Engage” In Talks On Madison Bumgarner

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The Giants are “willing to engage” with rival organizations on trade scenarios involving star lefty Madison Bumgarner, according to a report from Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s not yet clear just how likely it is that the San Francisco organization will actually move one of its best-loved and most-accomplished players.

Bumgarner is a living baseball legend, owing less to his years of excellent regular-season service than to his incredible postseason feats. The version of the burly southpaw that owned the 2014 World Series will live on no matter the course of the remainder of his career. But after the two seasons he just endured, with a shoulder injury seeming to sap his strength, it’s at best questionable whether the Giants’ staff ace can still deliver a vintage performance.

While front office opinions on the matter no doubt vary, numerous teams figure at least to check in on the lefty. Three, at a minimum, have done so already, according to Morosi. The Brewers and Phillies “have had at least preliminary dialogue,” he writes, while the Braves “checked in” but do not appear to be engaged at the moment.

It’s said that newly installed Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is angling for young pitching in a deal, but it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll be able to get any top-flight arms. After all, the upside here is limited by the fact that Bumgarner is one season away from free agency. His $12MM contract is plenty reasonable despite the questions, and the possibility of a qualifying offer (or even an extension) hold out hope for some future value. But the unanswered questions create significant downside, even on a single-season commitment.

At base, acquiring Bumgarner would mean buying a pitcher who has been a solid, not terribly durable performer over the past two seasons. He certainly did what he could to make it back from a shocking early-2017 dirt bike accident, and has somehow maintained a 3.29 ERA since the start of that ill-fated campaign, but it’s hard to look past the warning signs.

Before the injury, the now-29-year-old hurler had been good for about a strikeout per inning with two or fewer walks per nine innings, and a total of 200+ frames per season. He had run up four-straight sub-4.00 ERA campaigns, with peripherals that largely matched, all before his near-unimaginable playoff heroics. At his best, Bumgarner drew swings and misses at more than an 11 percent clip while allowing hard contact on less than a third of the balls put in play against him.

Operating at less than full capacity last year, Bumgarner’s swinging-strike rate fell to 9.2% and his K%-BB% dropped to 12.0%. (He had once sat at over a 10 percent K%-BB% for three-straight seasons.) And his hard-hit rate ballooned to 41.6% (per Fangraphs) — a massive rise for a pitcher who has averaged below 30 percent for his career.

The physical changes certainly appear to have had a role. While he was never a flamethrower, Bumgarner averaged as much as 93 mph with his fastball. It has now been three seasons since his heater average heater topped 92 mph. As the effectiveness of that table-setting offering declined, he increasingly went away from the four-seamer in 2018, throwing it just 34.2% of the time — well shy of his 45.6% career average. While the remainder of his arsenal was still effective, the heater had been the bread to his cutter’s butter.

Whether Bumgarner can regain some of the lost velocity, or find a way to make up for it, remains to be seen. There’s still reason to believe he’ll be at least a useful starting pitcher regardless, if for no other reasons than because of his undeniable competitive fire and remaining youth. While he gutted out the results last year, his 3.99 FIP, 4.32 xFIP, and 4.42 SIERA tell a different story — though it’s not a tale of an irredeemably lost pitcher. Even if he can’t regain much of his former luster, Bumgarner will bring the promise of some solid innings, at least so long as he’s able to remain healthy.

Of course, the allure of the Bumgarner of yore will no doubt play some role in negotiations. Clubs such as those rumored to have interest aren’t looking only for a useful, back-of-the-rotation piece. They all have designs on the postseason, and no doubt at least entertain dreams of Bumgarner not only helping to get there, but also rising to the occasion when the moment calls for it.

Perhaps, too, some teams’ scouts and analysts have sussed out some reasons to believe in a turnaround. It’s fair to guess that Zaidi is about as well-versed on the subject as anyone. His former club, the Dodgers, no doubt analyzed Bumgarner closely as a division rival. And he’s now privy to all that the Giants know about their own leading pitcher. Whether Bumgarner is dealt, and what he draws in return, will also tell us quite a bit about the San Francisco organization’s views — on the southpaw as well as the rest of the roster. After all, the club has the financial means to hold on to Bumgarner, whether to maintain fan interest and boost his value for the summer trade deadline or to pursue another extension.

The broader market is certainly a factor as well. Zaidi can only market one season of Bumgarner, but in some regards that’s a positive. There are plenty of intriguing lefty starters available in free agency — most notably, Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, J.A. Happ, and Yusei Kikuchi — but all figure to command significant guarantees over multiple seasons. Giving up some young talent, rather than taking on potentially damaging long-term contract commitments, will surely hold appeal. Of course, it’s also true that the presence of so many alternatives — remember that James Paxton (via trade) and CC Sabathia went off the board already, and there are other talented starters available in trade free agency — will tend to reduce demand.

All said, it’s far from clear that there’ll be sufficient interest to force Zaidi’s hand. But the mere fact that there’s a possibility of a pre-season swap is itself notable, especially given Bumgarner’s special status in franchise lore. It’ll certainly be interesting to see how this situation plays out.

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