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Giants Sign Mauricio Llovera To Minor League Deal

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The Giants have signed reliever Mauricio Llovera to a minor league contract, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. The right-hander elected minor league free agency at the end of the season after being outrighted off the Phillies’ 40-man roster in August, making him eligible to sign a minor league deal during the lockout.

Llovera’s stint in San Francisco will be his first outside the Philadelphia organization. The 25-year-old has appeared briefly at the big league level for the Phils in each of the last two years, tallying 7 2/3 combined innings of relief. Llovera didn’t find much success during his six MLB appearances this past season, but he averaged a solid 94.5 MPH on his four-seam fastball.

The Venezuela native hasn’t amassed much of a track record in the majors, but Llovera’s coming off a 2021 campaign in which he logged 52 Triple-A frames across 32 appearances. His 3.46 ERA with the Phillies’ top affiliate in Lehigh Valley was solid, but his 21.4% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk percentage at the level were both a bit worse than average. Nevertheless, the Giants will take a no-risk flier to see if Llovera can pitch his way into the bullpen mix over the coming months. He has one minor league option year remaining, so San Francisco can shuttle him between the majors and Triple-A Sacramento next season even if he earns a spot on the 40-man roster.

Giants Sign Jon Duplantier To Minors Deal

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The Giants have signed right-handers Jon Duplantier and Gray Fenter to a minor league contracts, per MLB.com.

There is, of course a transactions freeze for members of the Players’ Union, but that does not preclude clubs from offering minor league contracts. They cannot, however, incentivize those contracts with offers to spring training or give 40-man roster spots. When the lockout ends, Duplantier is likely to receive an invitation to spring workouts with the Giants.

Duplantier was once a top prospect in the Diamondbacks organizations. The bespectacled 27-year-old had a solid debut in 2019 for Arizona, appearing 15 times (3 starts) and tossing 36 2/3 innings with a 4.42 ERA/3.95 FIP. He has struggled to stay healthy since then, logging just 21 combined innings in Triple-A and the Majors in the two seasons.

Fenter, 25, has yet to make his Major League debut. The right-hander was drated in the seventh round by the Orioles in the 2015 draft. He pitched last season for Bowie in Double-A, pitching o a 5.47 ERA in 77 1/3 innings over 21 appearances (13 starts).

Coaching Notes: Giants, Nationals

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Let’s kick off this Saturday morning by checking in on the latest happenings around the game…

  • The Giants are adding Jacob Cruz to manager Gabe Kapler’s coaching staff. Cruz will be an assistant hitting coach for the 2022 season, per Robert Murray of FanSided. Cruz returns to the organization that drafted him in the first round as an outfielder back in 1994. He was an assistant hitting coach with the Brewers for the past two seasons, the Pirates, Cubs, and Diamondbacks before that. Cruz joins assistant hitting coach Pedro Guerrero, hitting coach Justin Viele, and director of hitting Dustin Lind as offensive coaches on Kapler’s staff.
  • Managers and coaches are not included in the hiring freeze brought on by the lockout, so coaching hires should continue to roll in. The Nationals are one organization that figures to be relatively active in filling out their coaching staff and development teams. The Nats have seen a number of their front office staff leave over the past year. They’re also looking to fill the position of minor league hitting coordinator, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post.

Giants Sign Alex Wood

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TODAY: The signing is official.  According to multiple reporters (including John Shea of The San Francisco Chronicle), Wood will get $25MM over the course of the two-year contract, with an even $12.5MM in each season.  Based on games pitched, Wood can also earn up to $2.5MM in additional bonuses.

NOVEMBER 22: The Giants are closing in on an agreement with free agent southpaw Alex Wood, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). The sides are discussing a two-year deal that would pay the ACES client more than $10MM annually, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (on Twitter). Should a deal come to fruition, he’d join 2021 rotation mate Anthony DeSclafani in returning to San Francisco. The Giants announced a three-year pact with DeSclafani just minutes before news of Wood’s near-agreement with the club broke.

Wood signed with San Francisco for a $3MM guarantee last offseason and more than made good on the club’s fairly small investment. The left-hander worked to a 3.83 ERA across 138 2/3 innings and 26 starts, taking on his heaviest workload since 2018. ERA estimators were even more bullish on his performance, as Wood posted a 3.48 FIP and a 3.60 SIERA that are both a fair bit better than his bottom line numbers.

The deceptive southpaw punched out 26% of batters faced this past season, a mark that’s more than three points north of the league average. That came on the strength of an above-average 12.5% swinging strike rate, with Wood generating plenty of whiffs on both his sinker and slider. While he doesn’t throw especially hard, he’s consistently proven capable of missing bats based on his combination of movement, command and atypical look for hitters.

That impressive profile has also enabled Wood to post robust ground-ball numbers. He typically induces grounders on around half the balls in play against him (the average for starters is just under 43%), and that was again the case this past season. Wood racked up worm-burners at a 50.8% clip, a top twenty mark among the 129 hurlers with 100+ innings pitched. It’s rare to find pitchers capable of pairing that kind of strikeout and ground-ball proclivities, and Wood also owns high-end control. The southpaw has never had a season with a walk rate north of the league average, and his 6.7% mark in 2021 was more than a point lower than the league figure.

There’s little question about Wood’s effectiveness. Since debuting in 2013, he’s yet to post a season in which he’s exceeded 40 innings with an ERA north of 4.00. That’s supported by the underlying numbers, with the Georgia native typically offering the production of a #2 or high-end #3 starter when he takes the mound. At his best, Wood is capable of posting All-Star caliber numbers. He even earned a Midsummer Classic nod with the Dodgers in 2017, and his 152 1/3 innings of 2.72 ERA ball that year earned him some down-ballot Cy Young support.

The bugaboo throughout his career has been health. While Wood tossed 361 1/3 innings between 2014-15, he’s struggled to log full rotation workloads in the years since. The southpaw has only twice eclipsed 150 frames in the past six seasons, and his 2019-20 seasons were largely derailed by back and shoulder issues. He combined for just 48 1/3 innings over that two-year stretch, and those issues seemed to have a pronounced effect on his performance. Despite his typically strong track record, his ERA over those couple seasons was just under 6.00.

Wood mostly stayed healthy in 2021, although his season debut was delayed a couple weeks by a minor back surgery. Nevertheless, injury and/or workload concerns have kept Wood from cashing in on a long-term contract to this point in his career. The former second-round pick turns 31 years old in January, and his rate performance would seemingly warrant a strong three or four year deal were teams confident in his ability to consistently log 150+ innings.

Instead, it seems he’ll land a two-year pact to return to the Bay Area. That’s shy of the three-year, $30MM deal MLBTR projected entering the offseason, although he’s seemingly in line to top that estimated average annual value. The Giants can certainly afford to take on that kind of eight-figure investment over the next two seasons. San Francisco currently has just $106MM in commitments for next season, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That number dips to $45MM in 2023, when only three players (Brandon Crawford, DeSclafani and Tommy La Stella) have guaranteed deals on the books.

The rotation has been a priority for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, general manager Scott Harris and the rest of the front office. The need to rebuild the starting staff this offseason has been evident for a while now, as Logan Webb was the only one of San Francisco’s top five starters remaining under club control entering the day. DeSclafani’s return locks in a second member of that group, and Wood would have a spot lined up as well if/when his deal is finalized. Susan Slusser of the S.F. Chronicle reported this morning the club was also making a strong run at free agent Alex Cobb. It remains to be seen whether those talks will result in an agreement, but there’d certainly be room in the rotation and on the payroll for such a move.

Of course, it also stands to reason the Giants would still like to hammer out a long-term agreement with Kevin Gausman. While a Webb – DeSclafani – Wood trio would make for a solid top three, reinstalling Gausman behind Webb and knocking DeSclafani and Wood into the mid-rotation roles in which they thrived in 2021 would make San Francisco’s rotation one of the more formidable units in the league on paper. The front office has worked to retain as much of this year’s 107-win team as possible, signing Crawford, DeSclafani and likely Wood to multi-year deals and bringing back Brandon Belt via the $18.4MM qualifying offer.

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Sports.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/01/21

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Some recent minor moves from around baseball:

  • The Rockies have signed right-handed reliever J.D. Hammer to a minor league deal, according to Thomas Harding of MLB.com. In 23 2/3 innings at Triple-A this year in the Phillies’ organization, Hammer managed an ERA of 3.80 with a hefty 34.3% strikeout rate but also an elevated walk rate of 12.4%. At the big league level, he logged 20 innings with an ERA of 4.95, 23.4% strikeout rate and 11.7% walk rate. The Phils outrighted the 27-year-old at the end of the season and he elected free agency.
  • The Diamondbacks announced that they’ve returned infielder Jake Hager to the organization on a minor league deal. Hager started 2021 in the Mets organization and then was designated for assignment and claimed on waivers three times, bouncing to the Brewers, Mariners and Diamondbacks. Arizona then outrighted him in September. The 28-year-old didn’t hit much in the big leagues this year, but in a tiny sample of 30 plate appearances over 14 games. He played 82 Triple-A games in 2021 between those four organizations, hitting .240/.311/.461.
  • The Giants have agreed to a minor league deal with right-handed reliever Trevor Hildenberger, according to the MLB.com transactions tracker. Hildenberger logged 2 1/3 MLB innings for the Mets this year before being claimed and outrighted by the Giants. In 23 Triple-A innings for Sacramento River Cats, the 30-year-old put up an ERA of 4.70 with a strikeout rate of 22.5% and walk rate of 12.7%.
  • The Nationals have signed infielder Richard Urena to a minor league deal, per the MLB.com transactions tracker. The 25-year-old has played in 91 big league games in his career but hasn’t cracked the majors since 2019. In 2021, he played 92 Triple-A games in the Blue Jays’ system, hitting .272/.310/.438.
  • Outfielder Henry Ramos is joining the KT Wiz of the KBO, as relayed by Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net. The 29-year-old had an unbelievable Triple-A season in 2021, slashing .371/.439/.582 over 294 plate appearances. He was selected by the Diamondbacks in September and got into 18 games, hitting .200/.255/.300 over 55 plate appearances. He was outrighted by the DBacks in October.

Giants Sign Alex Cobb

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The Giants have continued to build their rotation by signing right-hander Alex Cobb.  The Beverly Hills Sports Council client signed a two-year contract worth $20MM in guaranteed money, and Cobb is set to earn $9MM in each of the 2022 and 2023 seasons.  San Francisco also holds a $10MM club option on Cobb for 2024, with a $2MM buyout.

Cobb spent the 2021 campaign in Orange County, after the Angels acquired him from the Orioles last winter. It was an eyebrow-raising move at the time, since Cobb had struggled with both injuries and underperformance over his three seasons in Baltimore. The ten-year big league veteran rewarded the organization’s faith, though, tossing 93 1/3 innings of 3.76 ERA/3.83 SIERA ball across 18 starts.

Along the way, Cobb generated more whiffs than he ever had before. His 11.2% swinging strike rate and 24.9% strikeout percentage were both career-best marks, each checking in a touch above the respective league averages for starting pitchers. Cobb paired that uptick in whiffs with his typically robust ground-ball tendencies (53.3%) and solid control (8.4% walk rate) en route to a nice season.

Cobb’s run prevention numbers were partially propped up by one of the league’s lowest home run rates (0.48 per nine innings). It’s unlikely he’ll continue to be quite that successful keeping the ball in the yard moving forward. But Cobb’s blend of average or better whiffs, control and grounders should allow him to be a solid back-of-the-rotation option even if his homer rate regresses. The bigger concern might lie in his health, as he had separate injured list stints this past season due to blisters and right wrist inflammation. Cobb didn’t seem any worse for wear after returning from his time on the IL, though, with the velocity on all of his offerings remaining intact during his final few outings of the year.

The Giants entered the offseason known to be targeting rotation help. Only Logan Webb remained under club control from the team’s primary five this past season. They’ve already re-signed Anthony DeSclafani and reportedly were nearing agreement to bring Alex Wood back. Kevin Gausman’s departure to the Blue Jays leaves one prominent vacancy, though, and teams often have to rely on seven or eight starters to navigate the injury attrition of a full season.

There’s still room for further additions to the rotation, and there should be plenty of spending capacity with which to do so. Cobb’s two-year, $20MM guarantee narrowly tops MLBTR’s two-year, $16MM forecast entering the winter.

The Giants now have a little more than $113MM in estimated 2022 commitments, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. For a franchise that has logged player payrolls in the $200MM range in the past, a fairly modest Cobb signing shouldn’t be especially prohibitive to the club’s future goals.

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link) first reported that the deal was being finalized, and Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported the club was making a strong run at the right-hander last week.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reported the $20MM figure, NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic (Twitter link) reported the existence of the option year, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted the salary breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

National League Non-Tenders: 11/30/21

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We’ve now passed the deadline for teams to tender contracts to pre-arb and arbitration-eligible players. We’ll keep track of the more minor players non-tendered in the National League here. The American League non-tenders are available at this link.

As a reminder, you can view MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players here:

  • The Cardinals announced they’ve non-tendered utilityman José Rondon. The right-handed hitting infielder tallied 90 plate appearances this past season while suiting up at a handful of position.
  • The Giants announced they’ve non-tendered outfielder Luis González, right-hander Sam Delaplane and southpaw Joe Palumbo. None of that trio was arbitration-eligible, and all three were recently acquired via minor transactions. It wouldn’t be a surprise if San Francisco attempts to work out minor league pacts with one or more of that group now that they’ve been removed from the 40-man roster.
  • The Phillies have non-tendered southpaw Kyle Dohy and re-signed him to a minor league contract, per a team announcement. He’ll remain in the organization but no longer occupies a spot on the 40-man roster. Dohy made on major league appearance in 2021.
  • The Padres announced they’ve non-tendered relievers José Castillo, Trey Wingenter, and Matt Strahm. Castillo and Wingenter haven’t pitched since 2019 because of arm injuries that necessitated Tommy John surgeries. Strahm was limited to just 6 2/3 frames in 2021 by health issues himself.
  • The Cubs are non-tendering reliever Jason Adam, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The southpaw missed much of the season after suffering a gruesome ankle fracture in Triple-A in May, but he made a triumphant late-season return to the big leagues. Adam ultimately tossed 10 2/3 innings over 12 outings. Chicago also announced they’ve non-tendered outfielder Michael Hermosillo, who made a late-season appearance on the big league roster.
  • The Mets have non-tendered outfielder Mark Payton, per a club announcement. The left-handed hitter was acquired from the Reds midseason but never suited up for New York at the major league level.
  • The Reds have non-tendered righty Brandon Bailey, per a team announcement. The 27-year-old made five appearances with the Astros in 2020. He missed all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, the second such procedure of his career. Bailey is re-signing on a minor league deal with a Spring Training invitation but will no longer occupy a spot on the 40-man roster, reports C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic.
  • The Nationals announced three non-tenders: relievers Wander Suero and Ryne Harper and first baseman Mike Ford. Suero is the most notable of the group, having been an effective set-up option at times during his four-season run in D.C. He struggled to a 6.33 ERA across 42 2/3 innings in 2021, though.
  • The Mets have non-tendered reliever Stephen Nogosek, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (on Twitter). The right-hander made just one three-inning appearance at the big league level in 2021. He worked 35 innings of 5.14 ERA ball with Triple-A Syracuse.
  • The Diamondbacks are non-tendering reliever Taylor Clarke, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (on Twitter). The 28-year-old has pitched with the D-Backs in each of the past three seasons. The left-hander worked to a 4.98 ERA over 43 1/3 innings this past season, showing solid control but posting a 20.1% strikeout rate that was about four percentage points below the league average mark for bullpen arms.
  • The Dodgers have non-tendered southpaw Andrew Vasquez, tweets Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic. Vasquez wasn’t eligible for arbitration, but Los Angeles decided to bump him off the 40-man roster without placing him on waivers. Acquired in a minor trade with the Twins, Vasquez made two appearances for the Dodgers in early September. The 28-year-old struck out a massive 37.4% of batters faced in Triple-A in 2021.
  • The Pirates have non-tendered right-hander Chad Kuhl, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Twitter link). A productive back-of-the-rotation arm at times, Kuhl has developed escalating control problems over the past couple seasons. The 29-year-old throws in the mid-90s and has posted decent strikeout numbers, but he’s coming off a 4.82 ERA/4.89 SIERA over 28 appearances (including 14 starts)
  • The Mets have non-tendered reliever Robert Gsellman, reports Tim Healey of Newsday (on Twitter). The right-hander has appeared with New York in each of the past six seasons, moving to the bullpen full-time in 2018. While Gsellman showed quite a bit of promise over seven starts as a rookie, he’s yet to find much consistent success in the years since. The 28-year-old did manage a solid 3.77 ERA with a 49.5% ground-ball rate over 28 2/3 innings in 2021, but he also missed a couple months because of a lat strain and only punched out 14.3% of batters faced.

Tender Deadline Signings: 11/30/21

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With the deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming tonight at 8pm ET — the MLBPA and MLB jointly agreed to move the deadline up a couple days due to the looming expiration of the collective bargaining agreement — we’ll likely see a slew of arbitration-eligible players signing one-year deals.

It’s commonplace for a large batch of players to sign deals in the hours leading up to the tender deadline. “Pre-tender” deals of this nature often fall shy of projections due to the fact that teams use the looming threat of a non-tender to enhance their leverage. Arbitration contracts at this juncture are often take-it-or-leave-it propositions, with the “leave it” end of that arrangement resulting in the player being cut loose. Given the widely expected lockout, there could be more incentive than usual for borderline non-tender candidates to take those offers rather than being cast out into free agency just hours before a transaction freeze is implemented.

As a reminder, arbitration contracts are not fully guaranteed. In a typical year, a team can cut a player on an arb contract at any point before the halfway point in Spring Training and only be responsible for 30 days’ termination pay (about one-sixth of the contract). Releasing a player in the second half of Spring Training bumps the termination pay to 45 days of his prorated salary.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected salaries for each team’s arbitration-eligible players last month, although for many of the players listed below, this isn’t so much avoiding arbitration as it is avoiding a non-tender. Here’s a look at today’s agreements…

  • The Yankees have agreed to deals with infielder Gio Urshela and right-hander Domingo German, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links). Urshela will make $6.55MM, while German has agreed to a $1.75MM deal. Urshela has two seasons of control remaining; German is controllable for three years. Urshela is coming off a .267/.301/.419 showing while playing third base and shortstop. German tossed 98 1/3 innings of 4.58 ERA ball.
  • The Twins have signed three arbitration-eligible pitchers, per reports from Feinsand and Darren Wolfson of SKOR North (on Twitter). Right-hander Jharel Cotton signed for $700K, reliever Caleb Thielbar lands $1.3MM and reliever Tyler Duffey signs for $3.8MM. Thielbar and Duffey were both productive members of the Minnesota relief corps in 2021. Cotton was recently claimed off waivers from the Rangers.
  • The Giants have agreed to terms with outfielder Austin Slater on a $1.85MM deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The 28-year-old (29 next month) appeared at all three spots on the grass while hitting .241/.320/.423 over 306 plate appearances in 2021.
  • Reliever Emilio Pagan and the Padres have agreed on a $2.3MM deal, reports Rosenthal (on Twitter). The 30-year-old worked 63 1/3 innings of 4.83 ERA/3.93 SIERA ball this past season.
  • The Diamondbacks agreed to a $2MM deal with left-hander Caleb Smith, reports Zach Buchanan of the Athletic (via Twitter). The 30-year-old posted a 4.83 ERA/4.68 SIERA across 113 2/3 innings in a swing capacity in 2021.

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Twins, Tigers, Giants Interested In Robbie Ray

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As free agent pitchers continue to fly off the board, AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray remains unsigned, though he is still drawing plenty of attention.  The Angels, Red Sox, and Blue Jays have been previously linked to Ray on the rumor mill, and The New York Post’s Joel Sherman (Twitter link) also lists the Twins, Tigers, and Giants as among the clubs with interest in the left-hander.  In addition, Sherman says to “keep an eye” on the Rangers, which isn’t surprising given how much Texas has already splurged on free agent talent, including another top pitcher in Jon Gray.

Of the new teams in the hunt for Ray, it isn’t surprising to see Detroit and San Francisco listed, as both clubs have already been looking for pitching and been aggressive with some early signings.  The Tigers agreed to sign Eduardo Rodriguez for five years and $77MM, while the Giants re-signed Anthony DeSclafani and were reportedly close to also retaining another familiar face in Alex Wood.

While Ray would obviously be a huge help to either team, the argument can be made that San Francisco has the bigger need.  Just about all of the Giants’ 2021 rotation was eligible for free agency, and leaving plenty of holes to be filled around Logan Webb.  DeSclafani’s return filled one gap and Wood would fill another if he also re-signed, though Kevin Gausman left the Giants to instead sign a five-year, $110MM deal with the Blue Jays.  If there is a silver lining to Gausman’s departure, it could be that Toronto would seemingly be less likely to re-sign Ray, removing some competition from the Giants’ pursuit.

The Tigers, meanwhile, have a somewhat fuller rotation in E-Rod, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal all lined up for starting jobs, though the latter trio are is long on promise but still short on experience at the Major League level.  Adding a proven veteran star like Ray makes that rotation much stronger, and also provides a full-circle moment since Ray formerly pitched for the Tigers during his 2014 rookie season.  Detroit acquired Ray from the Nationals for Doug Fister in December 2013, and then flipped him to the Diamondbacks a year later as part of a three-team swap with the Yankees.

Perhaps the bigger obstacle for a Motor City reunion might be the draft pick compensation attached to Ray for rejecting the Jays’ qualifying offer, as Detroit already gave up a pick to sign Rodriguez (who also rejected a QO from the Red Sox).  As a club who received revenue sharing in 2021, the Tigers’ penalty for Rodriguez was the loss of their third-highest selection, which will be either their second-round pick or their Competitive Balance Round pick, depending on which of the two CBRs the Tigers are drawn into this winter.

If the Tigers signed another QO-rejecting free agent like Ray, the Tigers would lose their fourth-highest selection in the 2022 draft.  Since Detroit still seems to be considering Ray, it would appear that losing two draft picks isn’t out of the question for the club.  The presence of the extra CBR selection does help ease the pain, and the Tigers have obviously built up a sturdy amount of young talent through their years of rebuilding.

Likewise, the Giants would also have to give up a draft pick for Ray.  Since San Francisco isn’t a revenue-sharing team and they didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021, the Giants would lose their second-highest pick and $500K from their international draft pool if they signed Ray or any other QO free agents.  San Francisco issued a qualifying offer to one of its own free agents this winter, though Brandon Belt ended up accepting the one-year deal to return to the team.

Minnesota is perhaps the most interesting of the new teams in the mix.  Like the Tigers, the Twins are a revenue-sharing recipient and also the holder of a Competitive Balance Round pick, which could mitigate the draft capital they’d lose to sign Ray.  The Twins also have a strong need for front-of-the-rotation pitching, since Jose Berrios was dealt last summer, Michael Pineda is a free agent, and Kenta Maeda will very likely miss the entire 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery.

Despite these factors, signing Ray to something close to five years and $130MM (MLBTR’s projection for the lefty’s next deal) would represent the second-largest contract in the Twins’ franchise history, and the type of financial outlay that Minnesota has traditionally preferred to avoid.  However, the Twins have been open to larger spending in other free agent pursuits in recent years, and swung such a notable deal with Josh Donaldson’s four-year, $92MM pact in the 2019-20 offseason.  Additionally, Minnesota just hit the nine-figure threshold by inking Byron Buxton to a seven-year extension that will be worth at least $100MM and perhaps significantly more if Buxton hits various incentive clauses.

Spending roughly $26MM on Ray in average annual value would boost the Twins’ 2022 payroll to around the $119MM mark, but considering the club finished the 2018 campaign spending around $131MM in player salaries, Minnesota would still have room to make other additions.  Plus, Miguel Sano, Taylor Rogers, and Tyler Duffey aren’t guaranteed beyond 2022, and Buxton and Randy Dobnak are the only Twins players on the books beyond the 2023 season.

Mets May Be Favorite For Max Scherzer

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9:47PM: The Dodgers remain in the mix for Scherzer but are “not the favorites at the moment,” as per Jorge Castillo of The Los Angeles Times.  Indeed, there are “growing indications” that the Mets will sign Scherzer, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, with the New York Post’s Joel Sherman adding that Scherzer and the Mets have made progress towards an agreement.

8:47PM: The Mets have offered Scherzer a multi-year contract, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, that could be a three-year, $120MM pact.

7:16PM: The Mets’ offer to Scherzer has an average annual value of more than $40MM, according to Martino, but the length of the offer isn’t known.  This would represent the largest AAV for any player in baseball history.

6:58PM: The Dodgers “are perceived as the favorite” to sign Scherzer, Heyman tweets.  However, the “Mets’ full attention at [the] moment” is directed at Scherzer.  If Scherzer does sign elsewhere, New York will likely turn its attention towards Gausman as the backup plan.  SNY’s Andy Martino writes that the Mets hope to have either Scherzer or Gausman signed within the next 24 hours.

11:54AM: Max Scherzer is expected to make a decision about where to play next year before the impending lockout, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Heyman lists the Dodgers, Giants, Angels and Mets as some of the teams that are under consideration.

The current Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and MLBPA expires at 11:59 pm ET on December 1, with the general expectation being that a lockout and transaction freeze will then be implemented if no new deal is in place at that time. That has led to a flurry of activity in recent weeks, as many teams, agents and players seemingly prefer to get their business done now as opposed to waiting until some undetermined date when the lockout is finished. It would appear that Scherzer is in that camp.

The starting pitching market has easily been the busiest so far this year, as Eduardo Rodriguez, Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Verlander, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha have all signed in the past two weeks, with Corey Kluber also signing today. Kevin Gausman is also reportedly planning on signing in the coming days.

Scherzer’s free agency is a very unique case, given his elite skill level and relatively older age, compared to the other top names on the free agent market. Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray, the only two hurlers ahead of Scherzer on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents, are both currently 30 years old, whereas Scherzer turned 37 in July. But given his tremendous track record of success in his career, his prediction was for a much higher salary on an annual basis, $120MM over three years, AAV of $40MM. That would be a new high for AAV across the league, breaking Gerrit Cole’s record of $36MM. Gausman and Ray, on the other hand, were predicted to get to the vicinity of $25MM annually, but each over a longer term than Scherzer.

Scherzer already has an incredible career resume, with 14 seasons of quality work, including eight All-Star appearances, three Cy Young Awards, a World Series championship and various other accolades. In 2021, he logged 179 1/3 innings between the Nationals and Dodgers. His 2.46 ERA was the lowest of his career. His 34.1% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate were both much better than league average. In short, he would be a huge upgrade for any team in the league. But if he’s going to cost around $40MM per year, budgetary concerns will make him a better fit on some teams than others.

The Mets have already been throwing lots of money around, as they recently signed Mark Canha, Starling Marte and Eduardo Escobar. That spending spree has pushed their 2022 payroll to $225MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s already well beyond last year’s opening day payroll of $195MM, which was itself a franchise high, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. To add someone like Scherzer would require pushing their previous boundaries even further.

The Angels also ran a franchise-high payroll on opening day last year, getting up to almost $182MM, per Cot’s. For 2022, they’re currently sitting at $157MM, per Martinez, about $25MM shy of last year. Adding Scherzer would likely involve blowing past that number, as well as changing their previous avoidance of giving out contracts of any kind of length to starting pitchers. As recently explored by MLBTR’s Steve Adams, they haven’t given a starting pitcher a deal longer than one year since Joe Blanton way back in 2012, and even that was just two years.

The Giants have lots of payroll space, but also lots of holes to fill. Cot’s pegs their 2021 opening day number just shy of $150MM, but they’ve been as high as $200MM before, in 2018. They’re currently sitting around $115MM for next year, per Martinez, but still have many areas of need. Their rotation lost four members from 2021, and though they’ve since re-signed Anthony DeSclafani, they still need to replace Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman and Johnny Cueto. (It was reported a week ago that Wood was close to deal to return, though it doesn’t seem to have been finalized yet.) They could also use a right-handed outfielder, having already been connected to Starling Marte and Seiya Suzuki. It seems more likely that they would spread their budget around to multiple arms, but if they want to make a run at a huge name like Scherzer, they have a payroll situation that could make it doable.

As for the Dodgers, whom acquired Scherzer at last year’s trade deadline, their opening day payroll in 2021 was almost $248MM, per Cot’s, easily the highest such number in the league. They’re currently sitting over $205MM for next year, according to Martinez, and could welcome Scherzer back into the fold if they’re willing to spend at similar levels this year.

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