Feb. 13: The Dodgers made it official today, announcing that they have signed Kershaw. Right-hander River Ryan, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, was transferred to the 60-day IL in a corresponding move.
Kershaw is guaranteed $7.5MM on a one-year deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. He’ll unlock a $1MM bonus for making his 13th, 14th, 15th and 16th starts of the season. The deal also contains active roster bonuses; he’ll add an additional $2.5MM for 30 days on the active roster, $1MM for 60 days and $1MM for 90 days.
In all, that $7.5MM base can more than double to $16MM so long as Kershaw starts at least 16 games and stays healthy for about half the season.
Feb. 11: The Dodgers and left-hander Clayton Kershaw have agreed to terms on a new deal, reports Alden González of ESPN. It was previously relayed by Dylan Hernández of the Los Angeles Times that the lefty is in camp with the club. The deal isn’t official yet because the Excel Sports Management client still has to undergo a physical. The details of the new agreement aren’t yet publicly known. The Dodgers will need to open a 40-man spot but have several candidates to be moved to the 60-day injured list.
The move doesn’t come as a surprise at all. The future Hall-of-Famer has spent his entire career with the Dodgers to this point. He has gone into free agency multiple times and always re-signed. There has occasionally been some thought that he would like to join the Rangers, since he’s from the Dallas area, but that’s never come to fruition. On the heels of the Dodgers winning the most recent World Series, he declared himself a “Dodger for life.”
Kershaw, 37 in March, did turn down a $10MM player option for the 2025 season. Still, that seemed to be more of a formality, based on the strong relationship between him and the franchise. Even though he walked away from that money, the industry expectation has been that the two sides would reunite on some kind of new deal. As recently has a few weeks ago, it was reported that the two sides were interested in a reunion.
His current health situation is unknown. In early November, when he made the “Dodger for life” comment, Kershaw also relayed some details of upcoming surgeries. He told reporters at that time that he was to have work done on both his left toe and his left knee. He had dealt with bone spurs in his big toe during the season and also revealed after the campaign that he had a torn meniscus and a ruptured plantar plate that needed to be addressed.
It’s possible that his new deal will come with various incentives based on his output, as was the case the last time he re-signed with the Dodgers. He had surgery going into last winter and wasn’t expected to come back until midway through the 2024 schedule. He signed a deal with a modest $10MM guarantee over 2024 and 2025, with the latter year being a player option. Based on his 2024 appearances, he could earn an extra $7.5MM in 2024, as well as potentially bumping the $5MM option as high as $20MM. There were also incentives based on his 2025 appearances that could have allowed him to earn as much as $25MM on the year.
Kershaw only ended up throwing 30 innings over seven starts last year, allowing 4.50 earned runs per nine. He started the season on the IL while still recovering from that shoulder surgery, getting reinstated in late July. But he was back on the IL by the end of August due to his toe issues and finished the season there. That wasn’t a huge showing but it was enough to get the base of his player option up to $10MM. Though he went back under the knife for his lower body injuries, he still felt comfortable enough turning that down, though he and the club will surely figure out some new arrangement that works for both.
Though it’s not a surprise to see Kershaw back with the club, there’s still some mystery about what’s next. As mentioned, it’s unclear if he’s fully healthy now or if he’s still working his way back from his most recent procedure.
On paper, the Dodgers have a robust collection of rotation options. They currently have Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki and Tyler Glasnow taking up four spots. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May should be in the mix as well. Shohei Ohtani isn’t expected to be ready by Opening Day but could be back on the hill in May.
The club seems likely to run a six-man rotation. That’s partially due to Sasaki making the move from Japan, where starting pitchers only throw once a week. On top of that, basically everyone else in their pile of starters has workload concerns. Snell only got to 104 innings last year and has only twice gone beyond 130. Yamamoto spent a decent chunk of 2024 on the IL and only got to 90 frames. Glasnow got to 134, which was a career high for him. May, Gonsolin and Ohtani were recovering from respective surgeries, with no one of that trio pitching last year.
Throw Kershaw into the mix and its eight starters for six spots, before even mentioning pitchers like Bobby Miller, Landon Knack, Nick Frasso, Justin Wrobleski and Ben Casparius, who all have options and are likely to be in the minors as depth.
Given all the health question marks throughout the group, it’s unlikely to expect everyone to be healthy for the entire season, but there may be times where players get squeezed. Moving to the bullpen isn’t easy either, as the club is a bit squeezed there as well. With a six-man rotation, the club can only have seven relievers, given the 13-pitcher roster limit. Ohtani counts as a two-way player and will eventually allow them to have 14 pitchers, but he won’t be pitching to start the year.
The bullpen chart currently includes Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, Anthony Banda and Alex Vesia. No one in that group can be optioned except for Vesia, who had a 1.76 ERA last year. The bullpen is tight enough that Ryan Brasier recently got designated for assignment and flipped to the Cubs.
Time will tell how the Dodgers balance the juggling act, though the pressure on the 40-man roster is about to ease. Now that they have opened camp, they are allowed to transfer players to the 60-day injured list. Each of Emmet Sheehan, Brusdar Graterol, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan are likely bound for the IL soon, with each recovering from a significant surgery. The Dodgers will need a roster spot for Kershaw once this becomes official, but that will still leave them with three roster spots to play with.
Financially, RosterResource has the Dodgers at a $383MM payroll and $386MM competitive balance tax figure. Those are both franchise records and tops in the league by wide margins, but the club seems to have few limits right now. They have international star power from Ohtani and various other players on the roster, with a decade-plus run of postseason appearances, in addition to being reigning world champions. The cash flow situation seems to be incredibly healthy, with the ownership group willing to pump a lot of that money back into the roster.
