The Giants disappointed for a second straight year, finishing below .500 after flirting with Wild Card contention into the season’s final month. They fired their manager and head into the offseason in need of star talent to elevate a roster that has been built on solid depth but lacked impact players beyond its ace.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Logan Webb, RHP: $90MM through 2028
- Mitch Haniger, LF: $32.5MM through 2025 (can opt out of final $15.5MM after ’24)
- Taylor Rogers, LHP: $24MM through 2025
- Michael Conforto, RF: $18MM player option
- Sean Manaea, LHP: $12.5MM player option
- Ross Stripling, RHP: $12.5MM player option
- Anthony DeSclafani, RHP: $12MM through 2024
- Wilmer Flores, 1B: $10MM through 2025 (including player/club option for ’25)
- Luke Jackson, RHP: $8.5MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 club option)
Option Decisions
- RF Michael Conforto can opt out of $18MM salary
- LHP Sean Manaea can opt out of $12.5MM salary
- RHP Ross Stripling can opt out of $12.5MM salary
- Team holds $10MM option on RHP Alex Cobb ($2MM buyout)
2024 financial commitments (if all player options exercised): $104MM
Total future commitments: $222MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players
Non-tender candidates: None
Free Agents
- Alex Wood, Joc Pederson, Jakob Junis, Brandon Crawford, Scott Alexander, John Brebbia, Roberto Pérez
The Giants have been a league average team for two consecutive seasons. They’ve been unable to build off their surprising 107-win campaign of 2021. Pressure is building for the organization to figure things out.
They already made one major change. San Francisco fired manager Gabe Kapler during the final weekend of the regular season. It was a surprising alteration of course, as chairman Greg Johnson had said just two weeks ago that both Kapler and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi would be retained.
Instead, the organization decided a change was necessary. That’s perhaps related to some clubhouse discontent. Ace Logan Webb took a shot at the franchise as the season was winding down, saying the club needed “big changes” to create a “winning mentality” in 2024. Webb didn’t publicly call for a managerial change, to be clear, but Zaidi acknowledged the organization needed “to rethink everything” shortly before Kapler was fired (relayed by Danny Emerman of KNBR).
A common complaint among fans and occasionally heard from players is that the Giants had become too matchup-dependent. They’ve been among the sport’s most aggressive teams in platooning hitters. They took a flexible approach to the pitching staff, generally patching things together with openers and bullpen games behind their top two starters of Webb and Alex Cobb.
All of that was true in 2021, when it worked to great effect. Every major league team deploys those strategies to varying degrees. Yet it’s possible that whomever the Giants tab to lead the team prioritizes more consistent roles for players than existed under Kapler. Zaidi said last week the team hoped to have a new manager in place by the start of the free agent period.
By the time free agency gets underway, San Francisco will have more clarity about its payroll picture. The Giants seem likely to exercise a $10MM option to retain Cobb, who turned in a 3.87 ERA over 28 appearances. The veteran righty is headed for a second opinion on a balky left hip (via Maria Guardado of MLB.com). Perhaps that examination reveals a more serious injury that leads the club to reconsider the option, but if he’s healthy, the $8MM difference between the option price and the buyout is strong value.
San Francisco has no control over the other three option decisions on the table. Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea and Michael Conforto all have player provisions. Stripling’s and Manaea’s are valued at $12.5MM, while Conforto would make $18MM. Stripling has already declared he’ll opt in after a down first season in the Bay Area. The other two players could at least consider opting out in search of multi-year agreements. Manaea, who turned in a quietly strong second half working mostly in multi-inning relief, seems likelier to hit the market than Conforto — particularly if he wants a guaranteed rotation spot.
They’d join a handful of other notable impending free agents. Brandon Crawford has been the starting shortstop for over a decade. Crawford won four Gold Gloves, was an integral part of the 2012 and ’14 World Series teams, and finished fourth in NL MVP balloting during a resurgent 2021 campaign. He had a stellar run in San Francisco and earned a well-deserved ovation from the fanbase on the final day of the season. He hasn’t hit much over the last two years, though, leading the organization to likely move on.
Zaidi said yesterday the club viewed 22-year-old Marco Luciano as the frontrunner for the shortstop job. It’s a risky play, as Luciano has all of 32 games of experience above the Double-A level. He struck out at a near-30% clip through 242 trips to the plate in Double-A this year. Luciano has obvious power potential and a patient plate approach, but he’s likely to strike out a lot in his initial crack at major league pitching.
That’s suboptimal for a team that hopes to compete next season, although it’s also a testament to the weakness of the middle infield market. Free agency doesn’t offer any everyday shortstop options. There aren’t any locks to be made available in trade. Perhaps a non-tender or declined option (like the White Sox with Tim Anderson) or a surprising trade possibility (e.g. Tommy Edman, Willy Adames) changes the calculus. For now, Luciano appears the in-house favorite.
There’s a little more stability around the rest of the infield. Thairo Estrada is a quality second baseman. J.D. Davis received mixed reviews from public metrics for his defensive work at third base. He’s a good hitter who’s under arbitration control for one more season. Perhaps the Giants could float him in trade offers with Wilmer Flores on hand as another righty-hitting corner infielder. Retaining Davis and keeping Flores at first base/designated hitter would also be a fine outcome. Lefty-hitting LaMonte Wade Jr. picked up the bulk of the first base reps as part of a platoon with Flores.
San Francisco could have an opening at designated hitter. Joc Pederson hits the market for the second straight year. The Giants made Pederson a $19.65MM qualifying offer last winter, which he accepted. He’s ineligible for the QO this time around and wouldn’t be in consideration for it anyway after his offensive production dipped. Pederson is a capable left-handed platoon option at DH, but it’s a rather limited profile that inhibits the team’s defensive flexibility.
Zaidi indicated yesterday that upgrading the defense was one of the club’s biggest goals (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). Only the Rockies and Royals, who play in two of the sport’s most spacious home parks, have seen a higher percentage of batted balls fall for hits over the last two seasons. Oracle Park’s dimensions are tough to patrol as well, though few would consider the past couple Giants teams as being among the league’s most athletic.
Letting Pederson walk could aid the defense by freeing a few more DH at-bats for Conforto (if he returns) and/or Mitch Haniger. That clears corner outfield at-bats for Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater. Rookies Tyler Fitzgerald and Luis Matos are options to assume more center field reps in that regard, though the Giants could certainly look for more offense there — especially if they’re already counting on Luciano as an unproven shortstop.
There are few more obvious fits than San Francisco for Cody Bellinger. The Giants showed interest in Bellinger after he was non-tendered by the Dodgers last winter. The former MVP signed with the Cubs, had the rebound year he’d been seeking, and now seems set to land a contract in the $200-250MM range in his return trip to the open market. Bellinger is an above-average defensive center fielder who dramatically cut his strikeout rate this season. He doesn’t have the same power he had before 2020 shoulder surgery, but he’s a well-rounded player and one of the few star hitters available in free agency.
It’s a similar position in which San Francisco found itself last winter. They have a fair bit of position player depth but lack an impact player capable of anchoring a lineup. The Giants tried for Aaron Judge, only to see him return to the Yankees. They agreed to terms with Carlos Correa before the physical led them to nix the agreement. By the time the Correa deal collapsed, all the other star players had signed elsewhere.
While it’s little consolation to the fanbase after another middling season, missing out on Correa and Judge leaves the Giants with ample long-term payroll flexibility. Their 2024 commitments are more than $100MM south of the base luxury tax threshold. They have just over $40MM on the books beyond next season. There’s plenty of room for a splash, whether that’s Bellinger … or perhaps the market’s top free agent.
San Francisco was among the seven reported finalists for Shohei Ohtani during his first trip to the free agency six years ago. That process wasn’t about money so much as pitching the organization to the two-way star, as his earning power was capped by the bonus pool system for international amateurs. There’s no such limit this time around. Ohtani will almost certainly set the all-time contract record. Teams will still have to pitch themselves as legitimate contenders, but they’ll also have to put hundreds of millions on the table.
The Giants’ reported proposal around $360MM for Judge and agreement with Correa on what would have been a $350MM deal offer proof of concept they’re willing to spend on top-of-the-market talent. Yet Ohtani could find himself in another stratosphere altogether. Whether San Francisco ownership is willing to keep pace with potential bids from the Dodgers, Mets, Rangers and others is to be determined. It’s a similar question if San Francisco can legitimately market itself as a perennial contender to the expected AL MVP.
There could be a fair bit of pressure on the front office to land one of Ohtani or Bellinger. They’re the clear top two in free agency. San Francisco could ostensibly trade Davis to accommodate a nine-figure deal for Matt Chapman, though he’s less clear of an offensive cornerstone for a lineup that needs one.
The Giants are set behind the plate. While Patrick Bailey struggled offensively towards the end of the season, the former #13 overall pick rated as an excellent defender and showed legitimate power upside in the first half of his rookie campaign. He’s the clear long-term catcher. Rule 5 draftee Blake Sabol played well enough to hold the backup job.
That doesn’t leave much room for one-time second overall pick Joey Bart. The righty-hitting catcher has been mentioned as a trade candidate for a few seasons. He has yet to establish himself as a big league caliber hitter. Bart was drafted by the previous front office regime — Bailey was selected by Zaidi’s front office — and will be out of minor league options next spring. He’ll have to be on the major league roster or made available to other teams. It makes sense to move him this offseason, even though the return would be limited at this point.
Perhaps a team like the Marlins or Yankees would offer a potential back-of-the-rotation arm for Bart. San Francisco will need to add stability to the back of the staff. Webb is a legitimate #1 starter. Cobb, if healthy, is a quality mid-rotation piece.
The rest of the group is unsettled. Manaea could opt out. Stripling spent most of 2023 in the bullpen. Alex Wood is a free agent. Anthony DeSclafani is under contract for one more season but posted a 4.88 ERA in 19 appearances and didn’t pitch from late July onward thanks to a flexor strain.
Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn reached the big leagues in 2023. The former is one of the sport’s most talented pitching prospects. He’s likely to hold a season-opening rotation spot after a promising debut in which he turned in a 4.15 ERA with solid strikeout and walk marks through his first seven starts. Winn had decent results in a hitter-friendly Triple-A environment and seems likely to start next season in a depth role.
Between DeSclafani’s elbow and the risk of any rookie (even one as talented as Harrison), the Giants need more rotation stability. That’d only become more pressing if Cobb is seriously injured. San Francisco has shied away from long-term free agent investments in starting pitching. Under Zaidi, they’ve targeted reclamation plays like DeSclafani, Kevin Gausman and Manaea. They took on some injury uncertainty with Carlos Rodón but limited that to a two-year, $44MM guarantee. After Gausman and Rodón had excellent seasons that put them in the nine-figure range, San Francisco moved on. While they signed Webb to a five-year contract extension, that’s quite a bit different than signing a top-of-the-market starter in free agency.
San Francisco may have to aim higher this offseason. Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are the best starters available beyond Ohtani, who won’t pitch until 2025. Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery should exceed the $110MM that Gausman received from the Blue Jays a couple years back. Sonny Gray might not be far off that mark.
The Giants could ostensibly make a run at Bellinger and one of those starters. San Francisco had an Opening Day player payroll around $187MM this past season, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ve topped $200MM in the past. They’d have only $112MM in guaranteed commitments for next year if all of Conforto, Stripling and Manaea opt in and they retain Cobb.
A strong arbitration class could tack on another $30MM, but that still leaves around $40MM in spending room. A trade of an arbitration-eligible player like Davis or Yastrzemski and/or an opt-out from Manaea would make two large free agent pickups realistic even if the organization kept payroll around this year’s level. If they chose to stick with their traditional tack of shorter-term rotation adds, the likes of Kenta Maeda, Seth Lugo and Michael Lorenzen could offer some stability. Frankie Montas or Luis Severino would be traditional Giants-style reclamation adds.
They’ll likely need to add bullpen depth as well. Jakob Junis, John Brebbia and Scott Alexander are all headed to free agency. While none of that trio is a household name, they turned in a combined 172 2/3 innings of 4.12 ERA ball this past season. That’s acceptable middle relief volume that’ll need to be replaced.
The Giants have Camilo Doval in the ninth inning. Submariner Tyler Rogers is an effective setup option. Last winter’s signees Taylor Rogers and Luke Jackson were fine in year one. The Giants have high-leverage options but could identify a middle relief target or two on a short-term free agent deal.
There are a lot of ways in which the offseason could go. Zaidi confirmed this week that he’s in the final season of his contract as he enters his sixth year leading baseball operations. There’s clearly increasing urgency to secure a star player and, more importantly, push a fine but unexceptional roster back to playoff contention. The first order of business is finding a new manager. Once the winter rolls around, the goal should be to add a franchise player.
In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Giants-centric chat on 10-04-23. Click here to view the transcript.
