Dipoto Downplays Possibility Of Mariners’ Rebuild
7:33pm: Dipoto told MLB.com’s Greg Johns at the GM Meetings that this morning’s reports were “clearly over-dramatized,” adding that the Mariners are “just too talented” to completely tear down the roster. That said, Dipoto also conceded that the Mariners are “open-minded to different ways we can get better” and expressed a desire to “re-imagine” the team’s roster while “gather[ing] as much talent as we can.”
Generally speaking, it seems as though the Mariners will be open-minded to moving shorter-term assets — Paxton and Zunino both have only two years of control remaining — while also trying to gather some controllable talent in order to supplement the pieces of the roster that remain into 2019 and beyond. The GM also suggested that the Mariners won’t rule out a reunion with Nelson Cruz, whom he called a “super human being” and a “wildly productive” player. But the team also has other needs, specifically in center field, Dipoto noted.
The column is rife with quotes from Dipoto on the offseason direction and the agile approach the Mariners will take toward offseason roster maneuverings and is worth a look for Mariners fans and those hoping that various Mariners players become available in trades.
10:48am: Facing a difficult path to improving their roster sufficiently to compete in the AL West, the Mariners are said to be weighing at least a partial sell-off of veteran assets. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets that the organization is “considering a full-fledged teardown,” while Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times characterizes the situation as one in which the club will pursue the somewhat less dramatic path of “culling the roster of a few players who could actually bring back some younger talent to the organization” while also maintaining a competitive assortment of MLB players.
Whatever the precise course, it’ll be a fine line to walk, and one that’ll require deft handling from Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto. It’s worth noting that both reports emphasize the variability remaining in the situation. The M’s won’t simply be auctioning players off, it seems. Rather, the club is going to be demanding value. And as Divish notes, there’s also a strong countervailing wind to the concept of a rebuild. The goal, as Dipoto has himself stated recently, is to make a legitimate challenge for a World Series as swiftly as possible. Accordingly, it’s at least possible that the organization will prioritize near-to-the-majors talent over far-away, high-upside prospects.
Regardless, it’s an interesting shift in the market just as it gets underway. No doubt, the allure of the trade market is factoring into the thinking for the Mariners’ front office. That seems to be an element of the Indians’ decision to consider offers on some key veteran pitchers. The market side of the reasoning here isn’t altogether different, though it’s quite a different competitive picture for the Cleveland organization, which still has a very clear path to the postseason. With few top-end starters and relievers available for the highest bidder, there certainly could be some opportunities to achieve value.
All indications of late had been that the Mariners would consider to push to contend. There’s real talent on the roster, to be sure, and the club did just win 89 games even after a late-2018 tailspin. Certainly, the organization’s slate of contract commitments represents that of a contending team, with large and lengthy commitments to several players. Those same factors, though, also can easily be interpreted as supporting a different approach. The 2018 club arguably outperformed its true talent level and still finished 14 games out of first place in the AL West. And a crowded payroll situation makes it hard to imagine ready solutions to some of the team’s ongoing areas of need.
So, what players could be on the move? The premium assets will certainly draw the most attention, though they’ll also be the hardest to pry loose. James Paxton, Edwin Diaz, Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, and Marco Gonzales all come with ample excess value in their control rights. Surely, it would require the right deal to part with any of these players. Of them, Paxton seems the likeliest to move, if only because the others are all controlled for at least four move seasons while he has just two left to go. Indeed, Divish indicates it’s quite likely the power lefty will be shipped out. Diaz is a fascinating potential piece on the market, as he’d easily be the most valuable relief asset available. The 24-year-old just turned in an outstanding season and his trade value was boosted by the fact that he barely missed out on Super Two qualification, which would have greatly increased his overall arbitration earning power. Haniger is likely the team’s most valuable piece, though he might also be the hardest to part with. Moving Segura’s contract might offer a means of both dropping salary and adding younger talent in one fell swoop. There’s really not much reason for the Mariners to consider dealing Gonzales, who is amply affordable and controllable (and also just agreed to an unusual new contract).
Several other players will also surely be of keen interest on the market. Veteran reliever Alex Colome is not as good, or as cheap and controllable, as Diaz, but he’d be quite an interesting alternative to the open market options for clubs needing late-inning relief talent. Several other bullpen assets could hold appeal as well. Backstop Mike Zunino has his limitations as a player, but he’s a talented defender with huge power. It would be rather challenging for the club to move its most expensive veterans, though perhaps contract-swapping arrangements of some kind can be imagined. Plenty of rivals would like to have Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Dee Gordon, and Mike Leake on their rosters, after all, despite their suboptimal recent track records, though certainly the remaining financial obligations would need to be sorted out somehow.
The possibilities, truly, are endless, and will depend in no small part upon precisely what Dipoto and co. are looking to accomplish. It could well be a matter of seeing what’s possible on the market, rather than setting out specifically to prioritize the addition of new talent, say, as opposed to shaving payroll. Given Dipoto’s history of dealmaking, it wouldn’t be surprising to see quite a few moves to re-shape the roster in the coming months.
Market Chatter: White Sox, Zunino, Kimbrel, Cards, Giants, Phils, Yanks
What role will the White Sox play in this free agent market? It’s an open question whether the club will come away with any significant players, but it also seems increasingly likely that it will be heavily involved at all levels of the market. MLBTR did not pick the South Siders to land any of the top fifty free agents, but as noted in that post, the club could pursue quite a few of the players listed. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi even names the White Sox as potential pursuers of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic points out the case for the Sox to spend (subscription link), while Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that the club is expressing an inclination to “take a step forward now.” Meanwhile, on the other side of town, indications remain that the Cubs will not spend a big chunk of change this winter, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post is the latest to report (Twitter link).
Clearly, the White Sox are an interesting team to watch. Even if it’s arguably a bit premature for significant investments, it certainly doesn’t hurt that they play in the sport’s worst overall division. Elsewhere …
- The competition in the AL West seems to be driving the Mariners to sell. It’s unclear as yet how deep the cuts will go, but talks are already opening up. The M’s are chatting with the Rays about catcher Mike Zunino, per Rosenthal (via Twitter). With two years of control remaining, the 27-year-old backstop presents an interesting alternative to the free agent market for catchers. He’s an inconsistent but high-powered offensive performer who is generally seen as a quality defender.
- The Cardinals and incumbent Red Sox are among the suitors for veteran closer Craig Kimbrel, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Kimbrel is among the players who appear to be candidates to land earlier-than-usual contracts, by Morosi’s reckoning. (He mentions a few possible landing spots for others on his list, though it’s not apparent that the connections are based upon more than his analysis.)
- Certainly, it seems the motivation is there for the Cardinals to pursue significant players. As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, the St. Louis front office is looking hard at ways to improve. GM Mike Girsch says the team has a competitive roster as things stand, but wants to exit the offseason with “a division-leading roster.” The piece is full of worthwhile reading for Cards fans, particularly those interested in gaining some perspective on the team’s market positioning in relation to Harper and Machado. All told, it seems reasonable not to rule the Cards out as a possible pursuer of any free agent.
- Manny and Bryce are popular considerations for most teams, of course, even if they won’t realistically be pursued by all that many organizations. The Giants are perhaps a likelier suitor than may be evident from a passing glance, John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. While the San Francisco organization struggled last year, has quite a few big contracts on the books, and doesn’t currently have a GM in place, Shea says that this kind of ownership-driven decision could still be pursued.
- Lost in the hype for those popular young free agents is the never-ending search for pitching. While the rotation was and is a strong suit for the Phillies, that doesn’t mean they can’t improve. Indeed, as Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia writes, it could make sense for the organization to use some trade assets to add a starter — in addition, of course, to pursuing a superstar position player on the open market. Salisbury tabs southpaws Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks and James Paxton of the Mariners as two particular names to watch.
- Likewise, as they consider their pitching options, the Yankees will look at the still-developing trade market. Per Heyman, via Twitter, the Yanks have at least some level of interest in the top arms that have newly entered the sphere of trade candidates. New York’s brass will meet with their counterparts with the Indians, who are dangling Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. The Yankees are also said to have some interest in Paxton. Those three are among the game’s better starters, so it’s hardly surprising to hear the connections.
Mariners Hire Paul Davis As Pitching Coach
The Mariners announced today that they have hired Paul Davis as their new pitching coach. Previously, the club decided not to bring back Mel Stottlemyre in that role.
Davis had been with the Cardinals organization, most recently serving as their manager of pitching analytics. This will be his first experience on a MLB coaching staff. In the team’s press release, GM Jerry Dipoto praised Davis for his “exceptional understanding of the mechanics of pitching, as well as the balance to make evidence-based decisions.”
Astros Claim Chris Herrmann
The Astros have claimed catcher/outfielder Chris Herrmann off waivers from the Mariners, per an announcement from the Houston organization.
Herrmann, 30, is eligible for arbitration and projected by MLBTR to receive a $1.5MM salary. Whether he makes it through the non-tender deadline on the Houston roster remains to be seen, but he’ll obviously be considered as a possibility.
Soon to turn 31, Herrmann has had an interesting career to this point. Capable of lining up behind the dish, in the corner outfield, and at first base, he can be an interesting roster piece when he delivers enough offensive punch.
Herrmann was a light-hitting reserve catcher with the Twins before landing with the Diamondbacks and turning in a big (albeit brief) showing with the bat in 2016. That all disappeared in the following season. In the 2018 campaign, though, he hit well at Triple-A and then turned in a solid .237/.322/.421 output in 87 plate appearances with Seattle.
Mariners Outright Erasmo Ramirez, Nick Vincent
TODAY: Ramirez and fellow righty Nick Vincent have each been outrighted after clearing waivers. Both players have elected free agency.
The 32-year-old Vincent has appeared in over sixty contests in each of the past three seasons with Seattle. He owns a cumulative 3.62 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. Though Vincent still seems likely to spend plenty of time in a major-league pen in 2019, his projected $3.5MM arbitration salary was obviously deemed too steep.
YESTERDAY, 8:34pm: Morosi now tweets that Ramirez is indeed already going through the waiver process.
8:24pm: Right-hander Erasmo Ramirez is “likely” to be removed from the Mariners’ 40-man roster either via waiver claim or by clearing outright waivers and electing free agency, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (on Twitter). That would suggest that Ramirez, 28, has already been placed on outright waivers, as both of those outcomes involve the team attempting to pass him through the waiver process.
Ramirez has split his career to date between the Mariners and Rays organizations, enjoying success at times with both team but struggling mightily in the most recent season. The Nicaraguan-born righty rejoined the Mariners in 2017 after being traded back to Seattle from Tampa Bay and threw quite well for his original club down the stretch. The 2018 campaign, however, was another story entirely. Ramirez was clobbered for a 6.50 ERA in 45 1/3 innings, allowing a stunning 14 home runs in that brief time while working with a diminished strikeout rate.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected Ramirez to earn $4.4MM via the arbitration process this winter, even spite of those alarming struggles, making him a clear non-tender candidate. Rather than waiting until the non-tender deadline at the end of the current month, it seems the Mariners are opting to remove Ramirez now. If he clears, which seems likely, he’ll elect free agency, and the early outright will have granted him some additional time to explore the open market in search of a new opportunity.
For all of Ramirez’s struggles he’s not far removed at all from being a useful big league arm. In 385 1/3 innings from 2015-17, the righty worked to a 3.97 ERA with 7.0 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9. Ramirez was bothered by a teres major strain in 2018, spending more than three months on the disabled list with that injury, so with a return to health in 2019 he could be an affordable rotation option or long reliever for a new organization.
Mariners, Marco Gonzales Agree To Two-Year Deal
7:14pm: Heyman tweets that Gonzales agreed to drop his grievance, which could have increased his service time and, consequently, his earnings, in exchange for a current salary greater than that of a typical player with his service time.
6:13pm: According to Heyman, part of the explanation for the abnormally high value of Gonzales’ deal is the existence of a previous grievance from his time with the Cardinals, which is still pending (Twitter link). The grievance reportedly concerns the timing of a demotion. The outcome of this dispute may alter Gonzales’ service time and therefore his earning power, which would explain the $1.9MM figure.
4:40pm: The Mariners have agreed to a highly unusual two-year contract with lefty Marco Gonzales, reports Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The contract promises Gonzales a total of $1.9MM despite the fact that Gonzales is still two full years from reaching arbitration. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that Gonzales will earn $900K in 2019 and $1MM in 2020.
Presumably, then, there’s some type of club option associated with the deal that will give the Seattle organization the right to control at least one of Gonzales’ arbitration seasons at a predetermined rate. Beyond that, it’s not entirely clear why the Mariners would bump Gonzales’ pay to this extent; he earned just north of the league minimum in 2018 and could’ve been given only minimal raises over that sum in both of the next two seasons. While it’s only a minor difference, the Mariners are effectively promising as much as an additional $700-800K with this deal.
Gonzales, 27 in February, emerged in 2018 as a quality rotation piece for a Seattle team that was in desperate need of arms. While some raised an eyebrow when Seattle traded slugging outfield prospect Tyler O’Neill to St. Louis in order to acquire Gonzales, the lefty delivered plenty of value to the Mariners in his first full season with the organization. Through 166 2/3 innings (29 starts), Gonzales pitched to an even 4.00 ERA with 7.8 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9 and a 44.9 percent ground-ball rate.
There’s also yet some reason to believe that Gonzales has more in the tank. His pristine control helped to offset his average strikeout tendencies, prompting metrics like FIP (3.43), xFIP (3.49) and SIERA (3.81) to view his 2018 results even more favorably. Meanwhile, he induced swings on pitches out of the strike zone at a whopping 35.9 percent clip — a mark that ranked fifth in the Majors and trailed only Patrick Corbin, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Miles Mikolas. That speaks to the deception that Gonzales brings to the table and suggests that there could eventually be more strikeouts — or at least more weak contact — in the future for the southpaw.
Mariners Outright Ryan Cook, Justin Grimm
The Mariners announced Wednesday that right-handers Ryan Cook and Justin Grimm have been sent outright to Triple-A Tacoma after clearing waivers. Both relievers have enough Major League service time to elect free agency and will surely do so. Seattle’s 40-man roster is now at a total of 35 players.
Both Cook and Grimm would’ve been arbitration-eligible this offseason, making the early outright of each player an effective non-tender. Cook was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $1MM, while Grimm was projected at $1.6MM.
Cook, 31, has seen his once-promising career largely derailed by injury issues but returned to the Majors for the first time since 2015 this past season. He allowed 10 runs in 17 innings (including four homers), but he did post a rather impressive 23-to-7 K/BB ratio in that short time. He was also quite impressive in Triple-A, logging a 2.16 ERA, 10.0 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 in 33 innings.
Grimm, meanwhile, landed with the Mariners after opening the season with the Royals. He allowed just one run in 4 2/3 innings in Seattle but was clobbered for 19 runs in just 12 2/3 innings with the Kansas City organization after previously being released by the Cubs in Spring Training. The 30-year-old Grimm was terrific in his first two season with the Cubs in 2014-15 before seeing his results slip in 2016 and crater in 2017.
Mariners Claim John Andreoli, Select Joey Curletta
The Mariners have claimed outfielder John Andreoli off waivers from the Orioles, per club announcements. Seattle also added first baseman/outfielder Joey Curletta to its 40-man roster.
Andreoli, 28, debuted in the bigs last year with the Seattle organization before landing with the O’s via waiver claim. That’s now reversed, though it remains to be seen whether he’ll keep his roster spot throughout the winter. Andreoli did not hit much in limited MLB opportunities, but posted a .287/.397/.401 slash in 388 Triple-A plate appearances last year.
As for Curletta, 24, the move will prevent him from achieving minor-league free agency. Primarily a right fielder during his prior minor-league campaigns, Curletta appeared mostly at first base last year at the Double-A level. He ended up posting a career-best output, with a .282/.383/.482 batting line and 23 long balls over 556 plate appearances.
Mariners To Decline Denard Span’s Option
The Mariners have declined their $12MM option on outfielder Denard Span and will instead pay him a $4MM buyout, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (on Twitter). Span will re-enter free agency and look for a new team with which to spend his 12th big league season.
[Related: Updated Seattle Mariners depth chart]
Span will turn 35 in February but demonstrated in 2018 that he can still produce at an above-average level with the bat. In a total of 501 plate appearances between the Mariners and the Rays, he slashed a combined .261/.341/.419 with 11 homers, 22 doubles and seven triples — good for a 112 OPS+ and wRC+ (essentially indicating that his bat was 12 percent better than a league-average hitter after adjusting for league and home park). He’s not the speedster that he used to be, but Span still swiped nine bags in 13 tries and received positive marks in baserunning, via Fangraphs (+2.4 BsR).
From a defensive standpoint, Span showed his age with a rough season in 2017, which contributed to the Giants’ decision to trade him to the Rays and to Tampa Bay’s decision to move him to left field. Span still didn’t rate as a strong defender in left, though metrics like Defensive Runs Saved (-1), Statcast’s Outs Above Average (-4) and Ultimate Zone Rating (-4.8) all pegged him as only a bit below average in 924 innings there.
With Span out of the picture in Seattle, Ben Gamel is the likeliest internal option to step up as the team’s primary left fielder, though ever-active general manager Jerry Dipoto will undoubtedly be open to making further outfield additions to pair with breakout star right fielder Mitch Haniger. The Mariners could yet elect to move Dee Gordon back to center field, though he’s a vastly better defensive option at second base, and the potential departure of Nelson Cruz could allow the M’s to rotate Robinson Cano and others through the DH spot, with Cano filling in at multiple positions around the infield.
Edgar Martinez Steps Down As Mariners Hitting Coach
Edgar Martinez has decided to step down from his role as hitting coach with the team, GM Jerry Dipoto announced today. Martinez will remain with the organization in a different capacity.
Martinez, the legendary former DH, is said to have requested a new opportunity within the Seattle organization that would allow “more flexibility” than his former gig. Accordingly, he and the club came up with a new role — organizational hitting advisor — in which he’ll serve as something of a roving instructor at all levels of the organization while also performing “special projects, including one-on-one coaching.”
The veteran slugger, who figures to be a popular Hall-of-Fame candidate this winter, had been the M’s hitting coach for about two-and-a-half seasons. Previously, the M’s had announced that Mel Stottlemyre would not return to his post as pitching coach. Accordingly, the club is now looking to fill two key vacancies on the staff of skipper Scott Servais.