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Projected Super Two Cutoff Update

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OCTOBER 3rd: Galla tells MLBTR that a few roster moves since CAA's last projection have caused the cutoff to increase by one day to 2.122.  That means Charlie Furbush will not be arbitration eligible, as he's one day short.

SEPTEMBER 5th: Back in April, we learned that based on the research of Ryan Galla of CAA Baseball, the projected Super Two cutoff after the 2013 season was two years and 119 days (written as 2.119).  Now, Galla tells MLBTR that the projection as rosters sit is 2.121.  Likely Super Two players such as Eric Hosmer, Brandon Belt, Steve Cishek, and Mike Minor remain unaffected by the change, but those two days matter quite a bit for players on the borderline.  As we mentioned in April, Lance Lynn (2.119) and Felix Doubront (2.120) are very close to the projected cutoff.  Should they fall short of Super Two status, their 2014 salaries will remain a bit above $500K, costing them millions.

Players with at least three but less than six years of Major League service are considered arbitration eligible.  Additionally, a player with at least two years but less than three is eligible for arbitration if he has accumulated at least 86 days of service during the immediately preceding season and ranks in the top 22% in total service in the two-to-three class.  The current collective bargaining agreement, which went into effect December 12th, 2011, raised that Super Two percentage from 17% to 22%.  Bottom line: Super Two players are arbitration eligible four times instead of the usual three.  MLBTR will have much more on each team's arbitration eligible players in the coming weeks, including Matt Swartz's salary projections.

Previous Super Two cutoffs:

  • 2012: 2.139
  • 2011: 2.146
  • 2010: 2.122
  • 2009: 2.139

Arbitration Eligibles: Seattle Mariners

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Mariners are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Smoak's .238/.334/.412 line was about average for a first baseman, which was a big step forward after he'd hit .223/.306/.377 in over 1,400 prior plate appearances.  He struggled mightily against lefties and hasn't shown enough to justify a multiyear extension, but the 26-year-old clearly has a spot on next year's club.  Saunders, also 26 with poor production against southpaws, took a slight step back in 2013.  Even if he's just a fourth outfielder, his first-time arbitration salary is justified.

Charlie Furbush, previously estimated as a Super Two player, appears to fall one day short of the necessary amount of service time.

Assuming Smoak and Saunders are tendered contracts, the Mariners are looking at an estimated $4.8MM for two arbitration eligible players.

Quick Hits: Byrd, Angels, Mariners, Ripken, Weiss

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The Reds could have claimed outfielder Marlon Byrd, who the Pirates acquired in August, but they passed on the chance, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports notes (on Twitter). Byrd was owed near the league-minimum salary and was in the midst of a solid year, and it was well-known that the Reds' division rivals in Pittsburgh needed an outfielder. The Reds had waiver priority, and thus could have blocked the Mets from trading Byrd to Pittsburgh. But they didn't, and he homered against them in their 6-2, season-ending loss to the Bucs Tuesday night. The primary purpose of claiming Byrd would have been to block the Pirates from getting him, but it's worth noting, too, that the righty Byrd could have been quite helpful for the Reds tonight against Bucs lefty starter Francisco Liriano, who baffled the Reds' lefty-heavy lineup with sliders. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

  • The Angels still haven't dismissed GM Jerry Dipoto or manager Mike Scioscia, and that might be an indication that both will still be with the team in 2014, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times writes. The Angels' massively disappointing season and reports of conflict between Dipoto and Scioscia have led to reports that one of them might depart at the end of the season, but so far that hasn't happened. Scioscia is owed around $27MM over the next five years, and Dipoto is under contract through next year.
  • Mariners Chairman/CEO Howard Lincoln is expressing confidence in GM Jack Zduriencik, Greg Johns of MLB.com reports. After a recent series of poor seasons and the abrupt departure of manager Eric Wedge, the Mariners appear to be in disarray. But Lincoln says that firing Zduriencik would lead the organization in the wrong direction. "I know how frustrated the fans are. No one is more frustrated than I am," he says. "But we have to be patient and stick with the program we have invested so much in. We can't switch horses, change gears, whatever you want to call it now. That's not a good idea." Lincoln also says the Mariners have received inquiries from plenty of potential managerial applicants, even though Zduriencik's questionable status might appear to make the Mariners' managerial job an undesirable one.
  • Former Orioles great Cal Ripken Jr. isn't tipping his hand about whether he might be interested in managing the Nationals, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. He does, however, seem interested in managing a big-league team someday. "At some point I might like to do that," Ripken says. The Nationals will be looking for a manager to replace the retiring Davey Johnson. In August, in response to a question about managing, Ripken said, "I think I would be more curious at this stage in my life than I have been."
  • Rockies manager Walt Weiss isn't under contract for 2014, but the team wants him to return, writes Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post. The Rockies hired Weiss after the 2012 season, signing him to a one-year deal. His next contract might be a two-year deal, or perhaps a one-year deal with an option.
  • Renck also notes that, while the Rockies' main front-office personnel will likely remain the same, roles could change, perhaps with Bill Geivett moving into "more of a traditional GM role." Geivett currently reports to GM Dan O'Dowd, but Geivett currently runs Major League operations while O'Dowd works on the minor leagues.

Mariners Will Make Qualifying Offer To Morales

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The Mariners will "definitely" make a qualifying offer to impending free agent Kendrys Morales, general manager Jack Zduriencik said on 710 ESPN Radio in Seattle (h/t: MLB.com's Greg Johns on Twitter).

A qualifying offer — the average salary of baseball's 125 highest-paid players — will be a one-year deal worth roughly $14MM this winter. Should Morales reject the offer, the Mariners would receive a compensatory first-round draft pick were he to signed elsewhere. The team that signed Morales, in turn, would lose its own first-round pick (or second-round pick, if that team has a protected draft pick).

Morales, 30, had a solid season with the Mariners and could likely find multiple guaranteed years on the free agent market, but a qualifying offer figures to hurt him perhaps more than it would most players. Morales offers little in terms of defensive value and is best utilized as a designated hitter. That limits his market to American League teams in the first place, and forcing a team to forfeit a first- or second-round pick to sign him will likely give a GM pause. Morales' .277/.336/.449 batting line was above the league-average this season (123 OPS+, 116 wRC+), but not to the point where he's considered an elite slugger. The list of teams looking to surrender a top pick for a good, but not great DH doesn't figure to be particularly long.

Dave Cameron of Fangraphs and the U.S.S. Mariner touched on this topic in late August, ultimately concluding that Morales' summer swoon made a qualifying offer a poor investment for the Mariners. Morales did pick things up a bit with a .270/.330/.490 slash line and six homers in September, giving him a total of 23 bombs on the season. Extension talks with agent Scott Boras reportedly didn't get too far off the ground earlier this year, but he could always reject a qualifying offer and sign a new contract with Seattle.

AL Notes: Cruz, Yankees, Wedge, Blue Jays

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Rangers outfielder Nelson Cruz will be back for Game 163 against the Rays, writes Scott Miller of CBS Sports. Cruz, who was suspended for 50 games for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal, will be activated in time for the game on Monday. Cruz adds a big bat to Texas' lineup, and for what it's worth, he has good numbers against Rays starter David Price in a small sample. Miller contrasts Cruz's situation with Melky Cabrera's disappearance from the Giants last season — unlike Cabrera, Cruz put his team in a good position to opt to activate him because he expressed regret about what he had done and stayed in touch with his teammates. Here are more notes from the American League.

  • Upper-level Yankees employees were frustrated that the team got so little high-end help from its farm system this year, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. There may be "a scapegoat or two" for that problem, but not GM Brian Cashman or manager Joe Girardi. Instead, scouting director Damon Oppenheimer or senior vice president of baseball operations Mark Newman could be out of a job.
  • Eric Wedge, who managed his last game with the Mariners on Sunday, left his post with dignity, says Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times. His decision to leave the team may have seemed strange, particularly after GM Jack Zduriencik said he had no plans to fire Wedge. But, Baker says, Wedge "doesn’t just talk the talk. He walks the walk, even when it required him to swallow some job security and walk the walk right on out of here."
  • The Blue Jays could aim to trade relievers this offseason, Shi Davidi of SportsNet.ca writes. "The club’s surplus of relievers is one area of depth we might have that could be attractive to other teams," says GM Alex Anthopoulos. "[I]t will not surprise me if maybe we use some of that depth to help the club in some other areas." Despite suffering through a disappointing season in 2013, the Jays finished with the fourth-best bullpen ERA in the American League, at 3.39. Given their salaries and 2013 performance, Casey Janssen, Steve Delabar, Brett Cecil and Aaron Loup would all make attractive trade candidates.

Managerial Notes: Girardi, Scioscia, Gardy, Collins

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As regular season finales are being played out across MLB today, rumors have already started to swirl about the fate of several managers. Here's the latest news and notes on that front:

  • Joe Girardi met with reporters today (Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger provides a partial transcript) and admitted he has yet to make up his mind about returning to the Yankees next season. "It comes down to family. They are first," said Girardi. "Whatever is best for the group of us, not one individual, not me or just my wife, or just one of my children, whatever is best for us as a group, that’s what we’ll decide to do. And that’s something I put some thought into, and I’m going to have to think about a lot over the next few days, obviously." Girardi added money will not play a factor in his decision. 
  • Many have speculated Girardi could be the next Cubs manager, if Dale Sveum is fired. Girardi, however, downplayed the connection to his hometown. "I haven’t lived there since 2006. I have a brother still there, a couple brothers there, actually. But my father’s gone. My mother’s gone. So there’s not as much there as there used to be."
  • Davey Johnson told reporters, including MASNsports.com's Dan Kolko, he will not manage in 2014. "I wouldn't know the talent level, wouldn't know the organization," Johnson said. "I wouldn't be a good fit. I never say 'Never' to anything. I'm always open for new challenges. But I don't see that as being a challenge that would get my motor really revved up." 
  • Mike Scioscia told reporters, including Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com, he has not been informed whether he will return as Angels manager. "I'm sure that at some point they're going to let us know," said Scioscia. "It's not an issue. It really isn't. It's going to be addressed at some point. I'm sure it's going to be addressed before February."
  • Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com expects the Twins to sign Ron Gardenhire to a two-year contract and presumes a decision on his fate will be made either tonight or tomorrow (Twitter links). 
  • If not retained by the Twins, Gardenhire could be a possibility to replace Eric Wedge in Seattle, tweets FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.  In a separate tweet, Rosenthal reports the Mariners will also consider Reds pitching coach Bryan Price and former White Sox bench coach Joey Cora, who played in Seattle from 1995 to 1998.
  • The Mets have issued a press release announcing an 11am (CT) news conference tomorrow featuring GM Sandy Alderson. It is expected the topic will be a new deal for manager Terry Collins. People with direct knowledge of the negotiations tell Andy Martino of the New York Daily News the contract is for two years and about $2MM, with a club option for 2016. 

AL West Notes: Donaldson, Trumbo, Wedge, Astros

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Hunter Pence's new five-year deal with the Giants isn't the only extension talk in the Bay Area. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that Josh Donaldson is very open to the idea of signing a long-term deal with the Athletics. Donaldson tells Slusser that he and his agent, Hunter Bledsoe, have discussed the possibility, and he would "absolutely love" to sign an extension, provided it's a fair deal.

Said Donaldson: "I'm a guy who's been downplayed my entire career. Even when I was a first-round draft pick (in 2007), I took 10 percent less than the guy before me. I just want something fair, something that's justified." Donaldson's .302/.383/.502 batting line, 24 homers and elite third base defense should earn him some AL MVP votes. Here's more from the AL West…

  • Mark Trumbo might be the Angels' best trade chip in their quest for controllable young pitching this offseason, writes MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez. The Mariners, Pirates and Royals all had interest in Trumbo this past July, according to Gonzalez, and more teams figure to be interested over the winter. Trumbo told Gonzalez that he doesn't fear the change that would come with a trade like he would have earlier in his career.
  • Mariners manager Eric Wedge, who has told the team he won't be back in 2014, told reporters (including Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times) that he wouldn't even accept a five-year extension from the team. Wedge cited a difference between his vision for the team and the vision of GM Jack Zduriencik, president Chuck Armstrong and CEO Howard Lincoln. Wedge felt the team needed to supplement young talent with proven talent and told Baker that he didn't have as much say in personnel decisions as he'd have liked.
  • A statement released by the Astros explained the team's position in the wake of a report that Comcast filed an involuntary bankruptcy petition on behalf of the Comcast SportsNet Houston network that the Astros co-own with the Houston Rockets and NBC Universal. Brian McTaggart has the gist of the statement in an article for MLB.com. The statement alleges that Comcast improperly filed the petition to try to block the Astros from terminating the club's media rights agreement with Houston Regional Sports Network. "We will continue to work toward obtaining full carriage so that all of our fans are able to watch the Astros games while making sure that the Astros are able to compete for championships," the statement read.

Aaron Steen contributed to this post.

Reactions To Eric Wedge Leaving Mariners

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This afternoon, Eric Wedge told the Mariners that he would not be their manager in 2014. Managers don't typically just suddenly quit, but Wedge's unusual decision appears to be but one example of the uncertainty currently in the air in Seattle. Here are some reactions to Wedge's departure.

  • Wedge's odd-seeming decision to quit the Mariners' managerial job is part of a broader trend, writes CBS Sports' Jon Heyman. Justin Upton rejected a trade to Seattle last offseason, and Josh Hamilton turned down a large contract offer from the Mariners last winter as well (although he ended up getting a bigger one from the Angels). That the Mariners dodged bullets in both cases (Taijuan Walker would have been involved in the Upton deal) misses the point, Heyman says. The problem is that, increasingly, big-league players and coaches do not seem to want to work for the Mariners. Heyman also notes that Wedge may not have seen the situation in Seattle as a long-term position, given the possibility that he would have been dismissed when GM Jack Zduriencik lost his job anyway. He also notes that now that the managerial job has been vacated, the Mariners won't have the easiest time filling it, given the possibility that Zduriencik will be dismissed within a year.
  • Zduriencik was "quite surprised" when he learned Wedge was quitting, Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times reports. Zduriencik also says the team never actively considered letting Wedge go, even though the Mariners had not extended Wedge's contract. "I think Eric had known I was in his corner and would like to have him back," Zduriencik says. "I think there were a lot of things he and I were going to talk through in relation to the ballclub and the direction…but again, the thought process of not bringing Eric back just wasn’t there." Zduriencik does note that he and Wedge would likely have had trouble seeing eye-to-eye on an extension for Wedge.
  • The Mariners' next manager is likely to be someone from within the organization, Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner writes, since top candidates from outside won't want the position. Ted Simmons, who is a senior adviser to Zduriencik, and bench coach Robby Thompson appear to be first in line for the job.

Eric Wedge Will Not Manage Mariners In 2014

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Eric Wedge has told the Mariners he will not be their manager in 2014, according to a team press release. Wedge's contract expires after the season ends. Wedge will manage the Mariners' last series of 2013.

"I accept Eric’s decision not to return and thank him for his hard work here the past three years. I want to wish him and his family all the best in the future," said Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik.

Earlier this week, Wedge expressed frustration about uncertainty surrounding his future with the team, and said he would like to remain the team's manager. Now it appears he's changed his mind. The Mariners have gone 212-271 in Wedge's three seasons at the helm, losing 87 or more games each year.

Wedge says that the Mariners offered him a one-year extension last season that would have carried him through 2014, Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times tweets. Wedge believed that offer was not a strong enough show of faith by the Mariners, and he rejected it. Zduriencik says that he would have asked Wedge to manage the team in 2014, MLB.com's Greg Johns reports (Twitter link).

There have been rumblings about Zduriencik's future with the team as well, but now he'll be in the position of hiring a new manager. That could present an awkward situation, since credible managerial candidates might be reluctant to take the job if they fear that Zduriencik might be replaced within a year anyway. Zduriencik will reportedly remain with the team in 2014.

Quick Hits: Commissioner, Rollins, Diamondbacks

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Now that Bud Selig has announced he will retire following the 2014 season, speculation has already begun about who will be Major League Baseball's next commissioner.  ESPN's Jayson Stark thinks it would be "a monumental upset" if MLB doesn't go with an internal candidate, and the favorites are league executive vice-presidents Rob Manfred and Tim Brosnan, and MLB Advanced Media CEO Bob Bowman.  Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan hears that Manfred is the safest and most well-rounded pick, though some sources consider Brosnan to be the better candidate.  Stark and Passan list such names as Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski, Mets GM Sandy Alderson, Indians president Mark Shapiro and Diamondbacks president Derrick Hall as other possible choices.

Here are some notes as Yankee Stadium says goodbye to Mariano Rivera…

  • Jimmy Rollins is confident that the Phillies already have the pieces they need to succeed thanks to their emerging youth, CSNPhilly.com's Corey Seidman writes.  “That old window's closed," Rollins admitted. "This is a brand new thing. You've still got the pieces, but this is a brand new thing going forward. Obviously we would love to have that right-handed bat, but Darin Ruf has come up and done that so far. We're going to get Ryan [Howard] back, hopefully a healthy Ryan back on his legs and strong."
  • Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers will recommend to ownership that manager Kirk Gibson be retained for next season, Towers told reporters (including MLB.com's Steve Gilbert).  Gibson has a 289-277 record since taking over as Arizona's manager halfway through the 2010 season and he led the team to an NL West title in 2011.  Both Gibson and Towers are only under contract through the end of the 2014 season.
  • While Brad Ziegler has enjoyed being the Diamondbacks' closer, he tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that it doesn't matter if he's closing or in his usual set-up role next season.  Ziegler has a 2.28 ERA and 12 saves over 71 IP and a league-best 76 games this season.  He's going into his third and final year of arbitration eligibility though there has been talk that Arizona will try to work out a contract extension.
  • Jack Zduriencik's mistakes as the Mariners' general manager are recapped by Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times in a piece that chronicles the team's strategies and major transactions over the last several years.  While Baker holds Zduriencik accountable for his own mistakes, he also points the finger at the club's upper management for the larger issues surrounding the Mariners' lack of recent success.
  • John Danks is "embarrassed" by his performance since signing a five-year, $65MM extension with the White Sox before the 2012 season, the southpaw tells MLB.com's Scott Merkin.  "The goal is always to throw 200-plus innings, take the ball every day and give us a chance to win. I've got three years to make everyone believe it was worth it," Danks said.  "That's part of my motivating factor. I want to be the productive player I'm expected to be."
  • "The Cubs are the last-place team poised to contend the soonest. The Astros are the one with the brightest future," Jim Callis writes for MLB.com in his analysis of both teams' young talent.

MLBTR's Zach Links contributed to this post

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