Felix Hernandez Projection
Check out my Felix Hernandez projection for 2006 over at RotoAuthority. These always bring about good debates, so get to it!
You can purchase projections for 573 other players and much more in the 2006 RotoAuthority Fantasy Baseball Guide for the early-bird special price of just $9.99.
Cubs/Red Sox/Mariners Trade Possible
A reliable source told me today about a three-way deal that is "imminent." It’s always risky to throw around "imminent," but I’m just quoting him here.
Here’s the scenario:
BOS gives: Bronson Arroyo, Tony Graffanino, PTBNL
BOS gets: Jeremy Reed, Will Ohman
CHC gives: Corey Patterson, Ohman
CHC gets: Raul Ibanez, Graffanino, cash
SEA gives: Reed, Ibanez, cash
SEA gets: Arroyo, Patterson, PTBNL
Let’s evaluate. There’s no doubt the Cubs would be making out like bandits in this trade. Corey Patterson is useless to them, even as a fourth outfielder. 28 year-old lefty Ohman tossed a solid 43 innings this year, and seems recovered from his January 2002 Tommy John surgery.
But Chicago’s bounty seems to outweigh the former phenom and useful southpaw. Ibanez is on the hook for just $4.25MM in 2006, and the 33 year-old is probably good for a .290/.350/.460 line in 2006. He played 55 games in left field for the Mariners in 2005. I’ve projected him at .288 with 21 HR, 84 RBI, 89 runs, and 8 steals for 2006. Graffanino could probably chip in with some decent on-base skills from 2B or a utility role.
My Arroyo projection has him leading the Red Sox in wins with 16. Arroyo does a good job limiting his baserunners and should have an ERA under 4. I don’t think Safeco would have a major effect on his numbers. Reed should continue to improve all facets of his game in ’06, and would be a nice pickup for the Red Sox.
There may be a holdup in the deal because the Red Sox want to trade before Graffanino and Arroyo hit arbitration, and the Cubs want to wait. The word is that Mariners GM Bill Bavasi is strangely infatuated with Corey Patterson. If that’s the case, Hendry should strike while the iron is hot. I don’t have any information on where Matt Murton would find himself if the proposed trade takes place, but he wouldn’t have a starting gig for the Cubs.
Buzz Around The Game
Let’s see what we’ve got going on today in a potpourri-style format.
As predicted, Eric Byrnes was non-tendered last night. I can’t possibly think of a better way for the Cubs to turn the Jacque Jones signing into a positive. If you sum up Byrnes and Jones’ salaries, you’ll be getting solid stats from RF for the price. Assuming Dusty Baker understands what a platoon is and how all that works.
Of course, it’s probably one more roster spot than the Cubs wanted to use on this type of thing since they already have John Mabry. But Mabry can back up Aramis Ramirez, and the Cubs can carry one less pitcher and make it work. I put a word in to a Cubs source of mine, and he agreed that the idea makes sense (who wouldn’t agree) and mentioned that the Cubs have liked Byrnes in the past.
UPDATE: Just talked to a second Cubs source, and he echoed the sentiment held by many readers of the site: Hendry didn’t give Jones $16MM to platoon him. He’s a full-timer for the most part.
Kirby Arnold reports that the Mariners offered Gil Meche to the Cubs for Corey Patterson. At first, I said, "Sure, why not." But then I looked at Meche’s numbers, and I realized there’s no way he can help the ballclub. When a pitcher loses his ability to strike batters out, as Meche may have, he has to counter the increased hits he’s surrendering with good control. Or the ability to keep the ball in the park. Meche appears to have none of these traits, and would be a frustrating spot starter who would allow tons of baserunners. I might rather have Josh Fogg at this point. There’s got to be something slightly better out there for the Cubs.
Alfonso Soriano won’t move off second base for the Nationals and is pretty much raising a stink about being dealt to Washington. Let’s see here, are there any teams with GMs dumber than Jim Bowden who might make a trade for Sori? Dan O’Brien’s club doesn’t have a need for a 2B; Placido Polanco is firmly entrenched in Detroit…maybe Littlefield is interested?
Is Millwood really getting a five year deal from someone? Insane. Incredible timing to have your 2.86 ERA season. Best timing award for the NL: Todd Jones.
My Mets guy is saying the club is still talking to the Dodgers about Jeff Kent, but right now it’s a "pipe dream." Doesn’t seem like the two teams will agree on anything. The Mets still have some faith in Victor Zambrano (or maybe they’re just trying to save face), but Omar feels that after adding Julian Tavarez his bullpen will be pretty much set.
The Mariners seem desperate to get rid of Jeremy Reed after pushing hard to obtain him for Freddy Garcia. I guess they don’t understand that center fielders are hard to find and Reed will get better. After the masterstroke that was the Johjima signing, Bill Bavasi has taken a step backward with Jarrod Washburn.
Mariners Close To Signing Washburn
I’m finally back in action – my blogging service was down all day. Plenty of stuff to talk about.
Scott Miller of CBS Sportsline is reporting that the Mariners are close to signing lefty starter Jarrod Washburn for $36-38MM over four years. ‘Bout time they got a scoop over there. I’m surprised Scott Boras didn’t hold out for more cash, milking Washburn’s fluke of a 3.20 ERA.
Want to know a great way to identify someone who pitched way over his head? Find the starter with the biggest gap between his actual ERA and his component ERA. What the hell’s a component ERA? It’s where you look at a pitcher’s peripheral stats – walks, home runs, and hits allowed – and compute what his ERA should have been. Check out the component ERAs from 2005 at ESPN. It’s the most accurate way to predict ERA that I know of.
Anyway, Jarrod Washburn should’ve had a 4.19 ERA this year based on how he pitched. All sorts of lucky factors converged in his contract year, which pleases Mr. Boras very much. Washburn’s not horrible – he’ll throw up ERAs around 4 consistently. It’s just that the man is hardly durable enough to be locking up for four solid years. I suppose Bill Bavasi thinks he had no other choice than to sign a Boras pitcher.
MetsBlog: Millwood Close To Signing With Mariners
Now that the Burnett deal is done, Scott Boras can get to work with his stable of arms. Seems that the Mariners got the ball rolling yesterday for Kevin Millwood at four years, $44MM. If that’s the starting point, I’m frightened by where the bidding will end.
I would’ve expected this thing to drag on for at least a week, but MetsBlog is reporting that Millwood is close to signing with the Mariners. Matthew Cerrone also mentions that "most believe Seattle’s offer is for four years." I’m thinking it might take $48MM to make up for the lack of a fifth year.
There’s plenty of debate about which pitcher was the best on the market, Burnett or Millwood. Many side with Burnett based on potential, while others cite Millwood’s longer track record of success.
But really, does Millwood’s track record indicate he has four solid complete seasons on the way? Tough question. Based on his last three seasons, he may be good for 180 innings in each of the next four seasons. On the other hand, Millwood decided against elbow surgery at the end of a shaky season with the Phillies in 2004. That problem could arise again; given that Millwood is on the wrong side of 30, he may be just as much of a health risk as Burnett.
Millwood’s HR rate is trending in the wrong direction, and he allows enough baserunners to push that 2.86 ERA up near 4. I guess we’ll have to look back on this in 2009 or 2010, but I think Burnett is a better bet, especially since the money may be comparable.
Johjima In, Hargrove Out?
At this point, it’s a widely held belief that Kenji Johjima will be the starting catcher for the Mariners in 2006. Recently, I had an informative email exchange with a master of Japanese baseball and its players, Gary Garland. Gary runs JapanBaseballDaily.com and has a much deeper knowledge of cultural factors that might come into play with Johjima and Ichiro than any American sportswriter.
Among other things, Garland implies that Mike Hargrove could be fired after the 2006 season or earlier if he continues to offend his Japanese stars. Here are some excerpts of the email.
On the clash with Hargrove:
Given Johjima’s strong personality and the wrangling going on now between Ichiro and the M’s management, if Johjima and Ichiro don’t like what they see this coming season, I think Hargrove is getting the elbow. A few writers have said that there may be cultural reasons for what Ichiro has said and they are right, but unfortunately, they have little idea what those are. I do and I think it started back when Hargrove managed a team of MLB all stars that played in Japan and said that Ichiro would have trouble making an MLB team as a fifth outfielder. I believe that Ichiro feels that Hargrove not only insulted him, but also all Japanese baseball players.
On Johjima’s style and philosophy as a catcher:
Johjima is known for taking pitchers aside and challenging their manhood if he believes that they aren’t being aggressive enough on the mound. Johjima feels how his pitchers do reflects on how his ability to call a game is judged. To American players, they might resent Kenji’s forthrightness and his willingness to tell veteran pitchers they aren’t making the grade.
Thanks to Gary for the inside look at Kenji Johjima and the Mariners. One thought on Johjima’s challenging style: the dynamic between Johjima and the 20 year-old Felix Hernandez should be particularly engaging.