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Mariners Rumors

Mariners Sign Mike Ford To Minor League Deal

By Drew Silva | January 22, 2023 at 1:29pm CDT

Mike Ford is back with the Mariners on a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training, according to his MLB.com transactions log.

Ford played in 16 major league games with Seattle in 2022 while ultimately bouncing around between four different organizations — the Giants, Braves, and Angels being the other three. He took 149 total big league plate appearances and overall hit just .206/.302/.313 with three home runs and 40 strikeouts.

The now-30-year-old first baseman and DH burst onto the MLB scene with the Yankees in 2019 and posted a shiny .909 OPS, but he has struggled to a combined .570 OPS in 305 big league plate appearances since that promising debut campaign in the Bronx. Given his defensive limitations and age, the long-term outlook here isn’t exactly promising. Nor does the short-term outlook look good for him with A.J. Pollock, Tommy La Stella, and a large handful of better options vying for turns at DH in Seattle.

Ford has been part of the Mariners organization — Rule 5 drafted, let go, re-signed, let go, then re-signed again — a number of other times in the past. He will likely be returning as nothing more than a depth piece at spring camp for the M’s, who snapped the longest postseason drought in North American professional sports last season and are going to be aiming to chase down the reigning World Series-champion Astros in the AL West this year following yet another active winter piloted by hyperactive president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto.

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Seattle Mariners Transactions Mike Ford

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Mariners Sign Tommy La Stella, Designate Justus Sheffield

By Darragh McDonald | January 19, 2023 at 6:05pm CDT

The Mariners announced that they have signed infielder Tommy La Stella to a one-year deal. To create room on the 40-man roster, left-hander Justus Sheffield was designated for assignment.

La Stella, who turns 34 later this month, has some strong seasons on his track record but is coming off a rough patch. From 2016 to 2020, he walked in 9.6% of his trips to the plate and struck out in just 10.6% of them. He only hit 29 home runs over those five years but produced a batting line of .282/.358/.435. That production amounted to a wRC+ of 114, indicating he was 14% better than league average.

He parlayed that strong run of play into a three-year, $18.75MM contract with the Giants going into 2021. Unfortunately, things started going poorly for La Stella as soon as the ink dried on that deal. He only got into 76 games in 2021 due to various ailments and hit just .250/.308/.405 for a wRC+ of 93. He underwent achilles surgery in October, which was originally reported as occurring on his left achilles but was reported almost a year later to have been on both of them, per Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic.

Things got even worse in 2022, as injuries limited him to just 60 games on the season and he spent most of those as a designated hitter. He only took the field for 76 innings all year, getting brief amounts of time at first, second and third base. He hit just .239/.282/.350 for a wRC+ of 78. Though there was still one year left on his contract, the Giants cut bait and released him.

That makes this essentially a no-risk move for the Mariners, since the Giants are on the hook for the $11.5MM that’s still owed to La Stella. The M’s will pay him the prorated league minimum for any time he’s on the roster, with that amount being subtracted from San Francisco’s tab.

Though La Stella hardly took the field last year, he’s played more second base than anywhere else in his career. The Mariners were looking bolster their middle infield this offseason and already did so by trading for Kolten Wong. If the club views La Stella as a viable defender, he potentially gives them some extra cover there while adding a left-handed bat into their position player mix. Some of the clubs most obvious designated hitter candidates are right-handed, such as Teoscar Hernández and AJ Pollock. La Stella hits from the left side and has traditional platoon splits, having produced a 105 wRC+ against righties but just an 87 against lefties.

Though there’s no real financial cost for the M’s, they are paying the price of potentially losing Sheffield, who turns 27 in May. He was a first round selection of Cleveland in 2014 but was twice traded in headline-grabbing deals. He went to the Yankees in 2016 as part of the Andrew Miller trade and then went to Seattle in the 2018 James Paxton deal, frequently appearing on top prospect lists in that time as well.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to live up to that pedigree thus far. He’s pitched 186 innings over the past five seasons but has just a 5.47 ERA to show for it. He’s gotten grounders at a healthy 49.5% clip but his 18.2% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate are both worse than league average. He hasn’t been faring much better in the minors either. He made 24 starts for Triple-A Tacoma last year and posted a 6.99 ERA in that time. The Rainiers play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League but his rate stats were all fairly similar to his big league work and advanced metrics were only slightly kinder, such as a 6.27 FIP and 5.64 xFIP.

It seems those poor results have been enough to push him off Seattle’s roster. They will now have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers. He still has one option year remaining and just over two years of service, which could make him appealing to a club that thinks he can recapture the form that made him such a touted prospect.

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Newsstand Seattle Mariners Transactions Justus Sheffield Tommy La Stella

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Adam Warren Announces Retirement

By Steve Adams | January 19, 2023 at 11:56am CDT

Right-hander Adam Warren confirmed to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com yesterday that he’s retired as a player after spending parts of eight seasons in the Majors (Twitter link, with video, to Hoch’s interview with Warren). Warren, who was making an appearance at Yankees Fantasy Camp, told Hoch that he’s been enjoying time with his family but also misses being around the game and would be open to “maybe getting into some kind of coaching” role in the future.

“There’s no more attempt to come back or anything like that,” Warren replied upon being asked if he’s formally put an end to his playing career. “I’m happy with it. I had a great career — didn’t really leave anything out there, so no regrets. Totally happy with it.”

Originally signed by the Yankees as a fourth-round pick out of UNC back in 2009, Warren made his big league debut as a 23-year-old in 2012 — a spot start that proved to be his lone MLB appearance that season. He made the Opening Day roster the following year, however, and quickly established himself as a pivotal swingman providing quality, multi-inning relief out of then-manager Joe Girardi’s bullpen. Warren’s official rookie season resulted in 77 innings of 3.39 ERA ball; he made two starts, finished 11 games and picked up his first Major League win, save and hold along the way, foreshadowing the jack-of-all-trades approach to pitching that he’d embody throughout his career.

Warren worked as a setup man for the Yankees in 2014, tallying 23 holds and saving three games while pitching to a sharp 2.97 ERA in 78 2/3 innings. He stepped into the rotation for part of the 2015 season and did so almost seamlessly, starting 17 games (plus another 26 relief appearances) and working to a 3.29 ERA over the life of a career-high 131 2/3 frames. His early Yankees work caught the attention of the Cubs, who acquired him that offseason in a trade that sent Starlin Castro to the Bronx.

Warren’s time with the Cubs in 2016 went poorly and proved to be short-lived, as he was knocked around for a 5.91 ERA. As the trade deadline approached, the Cubs, then hoping to bolster the roster for a World Series push (an endeavor that ultimately proved successful) quickly traded Warren … back to the Yankees, as one of four players in a package that shipped Aroldis Chapman to Chicago. Warren almost immediately righted the ship in his return to the Bronx, and he went on to have strong performances with the Yankees in both 2017 and 2018 before being traded to the Mariners, where he had a nice finish to his 2018 campaign.

Upon reaching free agency, Warren signed with the Padres, but his time in San Diego was marred by injury. After just 25 appearances, the right-hander landed on the injured list with an arm issue that ultimately proved to be a ligament tear in his pitching elbow. He underwent Tommy John surgery that year, rehabbed in 2020 and eventually made his way back to the mound for a third stint with the Yankees organization — this time with their Triple-A affiliate in 2021.

Though Warren posted solid results in Scranton that season — 3.59 ERA in 57 2/3 innings — he didn’t receive a call to the big leagues. Warren told Hoch that “the velocity never came back like I wanted it to.” That season proved to be the final chapter in his playing career, as Warren didn’t suit up for the 2022 campaign and now, at 35 years old, doesn’t appear to be contemplating a comeback.

Warren’s career draws to an official close with a 3.53 ERA, a 20.9% strikeout rate, an 8.3% walk rate, a 30-24 record, 57 holds and six saves over the course of 492 1/3 innings. He pitched for four different big league clubs, but fans will surely remember him as a versatile, quietly excellent member of the Yankees’ pitching staff who found success in just about every role asked of him. Baseball-Reference pegs his career earnings at approximately $11.5MM, and if Warren indeed plans to pursue potential coaching opportunities, there’ll surely be chances for him to add to that tally in the next phase of his career.

Yankee fans will want to check out the entire clip of Hoch’s chat with Warren, as he talks briefly about his favorite moments in pinstripes and notes that with so many great teammates over the years, “it’s just nice to be remembered” by fans with whom he interacts. That humble mentality undersells the right-hander’s importance to the Yankees’ staff during his run with the club, and it seems quite safe to say that their fans in particular will have plenty of fond memories Warren’s time in the Bronx. Best wishes to Warren and his family in whatever’s next, and congratulations on a very fine career.

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Chicago Cubs New York Yankees San Diego Padres Seattle Mariners Transactions Adam Warren Retirement

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Mariners Claim J.B. Bukauskas, Designate Alberto Rodriguez

By Darragh McDonald | January 17, 2023 at 3:45pm CDT

The Mariners announced that they have claimed right-hander J.B. Bukauskas off waivers from the Diamondbacks. In a corresponding move, outfielder Alberto Rodriguez has been designated for assignment. Bukauskas was designated for assignment last week when the D-Backs re-signed Zach Davies.

Bukauskas, 26, was a first round draft pick of the Astros in 2017 and he landed on top prospect lists shortly thereafter. However, many evaluators predicted his inability to consistently throw strikes would lead to a bullpen move down the line. Those predictions proved to be fairly astute as Bukauskas moved up the minor league ladder and struggled with walks. In 85 2/3 innings for Houston’s Double-A affiliate in 2019, he walked 14.2% of batters faced and posted a 5.25 ERA.

The Diamondbacks acquired Bukauskas alongside three other players when they traded Zack Greinke to Houston and have since had him spend most of his time as a reliever. His control has certainly improved in that time but injuries have limited him to a small workload. In 2021, he only pitched 30 innings between the majors and the minors due to a strain in his throwing elbow. Last year, a Grade 2 strain in the teres major muscle in his shoulder put him on the injured list from the start of the year until July. The D-Backs kept him on the farm once he was healthy, but he fared well there. He posted a 2.42 ERA in 22 1/3 innings while striking out 25.3% of batters faced and walking just 4.6% of them. Most of that work came in the Pacific Coast League as well, which has a reputation for being quite hitter-friendly.

The M’s have decided to take a shot on Bukauskas to see if they can be the ones to benefit from a breakout. The righty still has an option year remaining, allowing them to keep him in the minors until he’s needed with the big league club. He also has just over a year of service time and can be kept around for the foreseeable future as long as he holds a spot on the 40-man.

In order to take a chance on Bukauskas, the M’s are risking losing the 22-year-old Rodriguez. An amateur signing of the Blue Jays, he was traded to the Mariners as part of the 2020 deal that sent Taijuan Walker to the Jays. In 2021, he hit .289/.379/.470 between Single-A and High-A, a strong enough showing to get him added to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft. Last year, he went back to High-A and still hit fairly well. His .261/.336/.396 showing was good enough for a 106 wRC+, or 6% above league average. However, he struck out in 26.2% of his plate appearances and only stole six bases after going well into double digits in previous seasons.

The Mariners will now have a week to trade Rodriguez or pass him through waivers. Though his 2022 season wasn’t ideal, he’s still a young and talented outfielder who has a couple of option years remaining. As recently as midway through 2022, Baseball America still considered him one of the club’s top 30 prospects.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Seattle Mariners Transactions Alberto Rodriguez J.B. Bukauskas

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Notable International Signings: 1/15/2023

By Maury Ahram | January 15, 2023 at 11:02am CDT

Major League Baseball’s international signing period for 2023 has officially opened up today, with many of the big names signing almost immediately. Teams have long since agreed to verbal agreements with newly eligible teenage players, and today’s signings largely represent confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon the start of their professional careers.

As previously mentioned, most of the agreements have been known for a while, with Baseball America’s Ben Badler and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez having listed each player’s expected landing spot. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Here are a few key deals:

  • Ethan Salas, C, Venezuela — Padres ($5.6MM): Ranked as the top prospect by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, the 16-year-old is considered by MLB Pipeline as “one of the best catching prospects in recent history” and is lauded for his strike zone control, power, and defense. Scouts have specifically highlighted his swing and soft hands. Born in June 2006, the backstop is the youngest player in MLB Pipeline’s Top 10 International Prospect Rankings. The young switch-hitter is no stranger to high-level baseball, with his grandfather, father, and uncle all playing professionally, and his older brother Jose Salas signed by the Marlins in 2019. Salas’ $5.6MM deal will comprise almost all of the Padres’ base signing pool of $5.825,000.
  • Felnin Celesten, SS, Dominican Republic — Mariners ($4.7MM): MLB Pipeline’s second-best prospect and Baseball America’s third-best, Celesten has been heralded as having “the highest ceiling of any international shortstop prospect in a decade” by MLB Pipeline. Scouts have noted the switch-hitter’s plus speed, arm, and raw power. However, Baseball America reports that Celesten has “an aggressive approach” and “might need to become a more selective hitter.“
  • Brando Mayea, OF, Cuba — Yankees ($4.4MM): Baseball America’s second-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s ninth-best, Mayea has drawn praise for his bat speed, power, and approach to the plate, with one scout going as far as to describe the 17-year-old as a “mini Gary Sheffield.” Scouts have praised the righty’s strong arm, with some expecting an eventual move to a corner outfield position.
  • Alfredo Duno, C, Venezuela — Reds (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fourth-best prospect and Baseball America’s seventh-best, Duno is a 17-year-old catcher that boasts three above-average tools — his fielding, arm, and power. Scouts have praised his “elite bat speed” and defensive ability. MLB Pipeline and Baseball America both predict that Duno will remain behind the plate, but both also cite his swing-and-miss tendencies as a result of his aggressive approach.
  • Emmanuel Bonilla, OF, Dominican Republic — Blue Jays ($4.1MM): Baseball America’s fourth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s seventh-best, Bonilla profiles as a slugging outfielder that has a chance to remain in centerfield but will likely move to a corner position as the 16-year-old matures. Scouts have praised the righty’s bat speed and swing, with Baseball America reporting that some scouts believe Bonilla has “one of the best combinations of hitting ability and power in the class.”
  • Luis Morales, RHP, Cuba — Athletics (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fifth-best prospect and Baseball America’s ninth-best, Morales is a hard-throwing righty with a fastball that sits between 94-97 MPH with a slider, changeup, and curveball as secondary pitches. Born in Cuba, Morales was considered the best U-18 pitcher on the island, setting a record for strikeouts (161) in 82 2/3 innings between 2019 and 2020. He defected in 2021 while playing for Cuba’s U-23 team in Mexico. Morales, 20, is one of the oldest high-profile international prospects and thus may be potentially fast-tracked through the A’s system.
  • Sebastian Walcott, SS, Bahamas — Rangers (Unknown): Baseball America’s sixth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s eighth-best, Walcott is a 6’3, 170 lbs (6’4, 190 lbs, per Baseball America) 16-year-old that has impressed scouts with high raw power and bat speed. Despite being 6’3, Walcott has drawn praise for his contact skills, hand-eye coordination, and his fluid swing. Baseball America projects that as Walcott matures, he will outgrow the shortstop position and transition to third base. 

Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2M or more, with the specifics provided by Sanchez:

  • Brailer Guerrero, OF, D.R., Rays ($3.7MM)     [MLB Pipeline #12, BA #5]
  • Jesus Caba, SS, D.R., Phillies ($3MM)                [MLB Pipeline #11, BA #8]
  • Ariel Castro, OF, Cuba, Twins ($2.5MM)            [MLB Pipeline #11, BA#13]
  • Rayner Arias, OF, D.R., Giants ($2.8MM)          [MLB Pipeline #15, BA #8]
  • Camilo Diaz, OF, D.R., Astros ($2.25MM)          [MLB Pipeline #17, BA #19]
  • Luis Almeyda, SS, D.R., Orioles ($2.3MM)        [MLB Pipeline #20, BA #17]
  • Roberto Calaz, OF, D.R., Rockies ($2.5MM)     [MLB Pipeline #24, BA #14]
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2023 International Signings Athletics Baltimore Orioles Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies Houston Astros Minnesota Twins New York Yankees Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Seattle Mariners Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays

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Mariners Sign AJ Pollock

By Mark Polishuk | January 12, 2023 at 10:45am CDT

The Mariners added a right-handed bat to their outfield mix Thursday, formally announcing their previously reported one-year signing of veteran AJ Pollock.  The Excel Sports Management client will be guaranteed $7MM on the deal and can earn an additional $3MM via incentives.

The Twins and Rangers were also known to have interest in Pollock, whose entry into the offseason market was at least somewhat unexpected.  Pollock batted a disappointing .245/.292/.389 over 527 plate appearances with the White Sox in 2022, yet he still opted to decline his $13MM player option for the 2023 season.  That option contained a hefty $5MM buyout, so between that money and the $7MM salary Pollock is receiving on his new deal with Seattle, the 35-year-old’s opt-out decision left $1MM in guaranteed money on the table.  With enough playing time to reach his contract’s incentives, however, he could match or even surpass that sum.

Pollock catches on with an intriguing Mariners team that reached the ALDS last season and is hopeful of taking more steps forward into World Series contention.  Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is no stranger to Pollock, as Dipoto was working in the Diamondbacks’ front office when Arizona drafted Pollock with the 17th overall pick of the 2009 draft.

With center fielder Julio Rodriguez established as the bedrock of the Seattle outfield, the M’s have spent a lot of their offseason business on reinforcing and sorting out the corner outfield positions.  Mitch Haniger departed in free agency and Kyle Lewis and Jesse Winker were traded, while the Mariners acquired Teoscar Hernandez from the Blue Jays to act as the new everyday right fielder (and probable part-time DH).  Signing Pollock puts another right-handed bat into left field, with Jarred Kelenic and Taylor Trammell adding left-handed depth as platoon partners for Pollock or as bench options.

Some level of platoon shielding might be necessary given how Pollock’s numbers against right-handed pitching drastically fell off in 2022.  Always a solid bat against righty pitching in the past, Pollock hit only .231/.284/.309 over 394 plate appearances against righties last year.  This was the root of Pollock’s offensive struggles, as he continued to mash lefties to the tune of a .286/.316/.619 slash line and 11 homers over 133 trips to the plate.

In terms of overall Statcast metrics, Pollock’s 2022 performance didn’t differ all that greatly from previous seasons, though his hard-contract rate took a notable drop from 2021.  His speed and baserunning also took a hit, perhaps due to hamstring injuries in each of the last two seasons.  The biggest issue was a lack of power, as after posting a .227 Isolated Power number from 2017-21, Pollock dropped to only .143 in 2022.

Playing at spacious T-Mobile Park might not help Pollock regain all of that power stroke, though there are some reasons the Mariners can be hopeful about a rebound.  If Pollock is “only” a lefty-masher again, the M’s theoretically have enough left-handed outfield candidates to pick up the slack.  Moving back from less than a full-time role might be helpful for Pollock, as his 138 games played last season represented the second-highest total of his 11 MLB seasons — it could be that staying relatively healthy last year actually hampered Pollock or wore him down to some extent.  A normal offseason and Spring Training routine heading into 2023 would be just what the 35-year-old needs to produce a bounce-back year.

Just yesterday on MLBTR, Steve Adams wrote about the Mariners’ search for a right-handed hitting outfielder, and the broader sense that the M’s were having a strangely quiet offseason for a team that seemed poised to make some splashy final touches to a contender.  Adding Pollock for $7MM won’t quell speculation that ownership isn’t stretching the budget as much as expected, and yet the signing can also be viewed as a relatively inexpensive but smart investment.  Pollock was posting big numbers as recently as 2021, he has been a solid performer for most of his career, and he brings some more veteran experience and championship pedigree (Pollock was a big part of the Dodgers’ 2020 title team) to the young Mariners.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement and the base terms (Twitter link). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the additional incentives.

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Mariners Add Stephen Vogt To Coaching Staff

By Darragh McDonald | January 10, 2023 at 3:18pm CDT

The Mariners have announced their coaching staff for 2023, with only a couple of changes compared to 2022. Trent Blank will move from his role as bullpen coach to a new title of major league coach and director of pitching strategy. Stephen Vogt, who just retired from playing a few months ago, will join the staff as quality control coach and take over Blank’s bullpen coach duties.

Vogt, 38, makes a quick transition to coaching after a lengthy playing career. Originally selected by the Rays in the 12th round of the 2007 draft, he went on to play 794 games in the majors for the Rays, A’s, Brewers, Giants, Diamondbacks and Braves. In September of 2022, while playing with Oakland, he announced that he would retire from playing once that season was completed.

The fact that he has now made a quick leap into coaching just a few months later shouldn’t come as a shock. Vogt has been open about his future managerial aspirations for some time, discussing the matter back in 2020. Vogt has also drawn praise about his managerial potential from current skippers. “Definitely has a future in managing,” were the words used by Bob Melvin, current Padres manager and formerly with the A’s, when speaking to Janie McAuley of the Associated Press last year. Current A’s manager Mark Kotsay also had praise for Vogt, speaking to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle in October. “I do think he’d be a good manager,” Kotsay said. “Big personality. Gamer. Intense. Driven. You could see all those traits. Catchers seem to make great managers. They see the game from a different perspective. One of my best friends, who’s manager of the Brewers, Craig Counsell, said Stephen is probably going to be the next manager of the Brewers.”

Though many are predicting that Vogt will wind up a bench boss eventually, it seems he’ll start by getting his feet wet in the Mariners’ bullpen in 2023.

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Seattle Mariners Stephen Vogt

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Mariners, Colin Moran Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | January 10, 2023 at 11:03am CDT

The Mariners have agreed to a minor league contract with free-agent corner infielder Colin Moran, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (Twitter link). He’ll be invited to Major League Spring Training.

Moran, 30, spent the 2022 season with the Reds after signing a one-year deal in early March. Cincinnati, however, cut the former Astro and Pirate loose after he appeared in 42 games and posted  a lackluster .211/.305/.376 batting line in 128 plate appearances.

In parts of four seasons with the Pirates (2018-21), Moran was a roughly average hitter, turning in a combined .269/.331/.419 batting line with 44 home runs, 71 doubles and a pair of triples in 1527 plate appearances. At times, particularly in the shortened 2020 season, it’s looked as though the former No. 6 overall draft pick might have more in the tank.

Moran posted a massive 91.9 mph average exit velocity in 2020 and put a whopping 47.2% of his batted balls in play at 95 mph or more. He belted 10 home runs in just 200 plate appearances that season and posted career-best marks in slugging percentage (.472) and ISO (.225). That now looks like an outlier, however, as his batted-ball data since that time has fallen back in line with his solid but unspectacular career rates.

The Mariners have a pair of right-handed-hitting corner infielders in third baseman Eugenio Suarez and first baseman Ty France. Both rank among the Mariners’ most productive hitters and are likely to be in the lineup regardless of matchup, but Moran could feasibly make the club as a bench option and spell either in the case of injury or on days where the Mariners want to load up as many lefties as possible against a right-hander with particularly pronounced platoon splits. He could also step into the lineup at designated hitter from time to time.

Moran has been primarily a first baseman and designated hitter over the past two seasons, but he has more than 2000 career innings at the hot corner and has still spent more time there than anywhere else on the diamond. If he doesn’t crack the Opening Day roster and if his deal doesn’t contain a spring opt-out (relatively common for veterans of this status), he could head to Triple-A Tacoma and give the Mariners some depth.

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Mariners Acquire Justin Topa

By Mark Polishuk | January 7, 2023 at 6:45pm CDT

The Mariners announced a swap of right-handers, as Justin Topa was acquired from the Brewers in exchange for minor leaguer Joseph Hernandez.

Topa has pitched in each of the last three MLB seasons, albeit in the limited fashion of 18 1/3 innings over 17 total games.  The righty has an 8.35 ERA for his brief career, thanks to two particularly disastrous outings in 2021 that saw Topa charged with nine earned runs over 1 1/3 frames of work.

A flexor tendon strain sidelined Topa for most of the 2021 season, and flexor tendon surgery resulted in another trip to the 60-day injured list last season.  Since the start of the 2021 campaign, Topa has thrown only 45 1/3 total innings in the majors and minors (10 2/3 IP in MLB, 34 2/3 in the minors).  Injury absences have unfortunately been the story of a career that began as a 17th-round pick for the Pirates in the 2013 draft, as Topa has previously undergone two Tommy John surgeries.

Between all the health issues and even brief drops out of affiliated baseball (Topa played for indy ball teams for parts of the 2017 and 2018 seasons), Topa is a hard player to evaluate as he enters his age-32 season.  However, he immediately drew attention as a possible late-blooming gem when he made his MLB debut in 2020, and posted a 2.35 ERA with 12 strikeouts and no walks over his first 7 2/3 innings.  This performance earned Topa a spot on Milwaukee’s postseason roster, and he threw two scoreless innings in his lone appearance.

A hard-thrower who averaged 97.5mph on his fastball in that debut season, Topa’s velocity fell to a 95.7mph average over the last two seasons.  While we’re dealing with small sample sizes all around in these three brief bits of Major League exposure for Topa, his injury situation explains the velo drop, and the next step will be seeing if he can regain any velocity now that the flexor tendon issue seems to be behind him.

The Mariners were intrigued enough by Topa to spend a 40-man roster spot on him, and Seattle also parted ways with a 22-year-old coming off a breakout season at single-A.  Hernandez posted a 3.39 ERA over 116 2/3 innings in 2022, with an impressive 29.4% strikeout rate but an underwhelming 11.1% walk rate.  This does at least represent some improved control from earlier in Hernandez’s career, and the righty’s swing-and-miss numbers indicated how dangerous he could be with improved command.

Hernandez started 22 of 24 games in 2022, and the Brewers will certainly continue to give the right-hander chances as as a starting pitcher.  If the control problems persist, Hernandez’s ultimate future (and path to the big leagues) might come as a reliever, and he possesses an excellent slider that could be even more devastating in a limited role.

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MLBTR Poll: American League West Favorite

By Darragh McDonald | January 6, 2023 at 10:08pm CDT

The Astros have won the division title in the American League West in each of the past five full seasons. They also reached the ALCS in each of those years, along with the shortened 2020 campaign. There hoisted the World Series trophy twice in that time, including just a few months ago. However, their rivals have been aggressive in trying to load up to chase them in 2023 and it now seems like four out of the five clubs seem like legitimate contenders.

There’s still over a month until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, meaning there’s still time for some aggressive transactions that will further change the calculus. But much of the heavy lifting of the offseason appears to be done. Most of the top free agents are off the board, with guys like Jurickson Profar, Michael Wacha and Andrew Chafin the top remaining options. Those are fine players that could certainly help a team but they wouldn’t be franchise-altering additions. There’s also the trade market, which could theoretically see Bryan Reynolds on the move. The Rangers are reportedly interested in him, but so are many other teams and the Pirates have continued to hold firm to an asking price that seems to be quite high.

Whether there are significant moves still to come or not, let’s look at where the clubs stand now, starting with the reigning champs.

Houston Astros – 2022 record: 106-56, projected 2023 fWAR: 48.2

There’s not much doubt about the Astros at this point. As mentioned, they’re enjoying an incredible run of success. Going into the winter, they lost some significant players to free agency, the most notable of which was Justin Verlander. The club hasn’t done anything to supplant him thus far, which is a defendable but risky move. The rotation has plenty of solid options without Verlander, with Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, José Urquidy and Hunter Brown on the roster. However, Verlander is the reigning Cy Young winner after tossing 175 innings with a 1.75 ERA last year. Subtracting that kind of performance would have an impact on any club.

On the position player side, they lost Christian Vázquez, Jason Castro, Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel, Michael Brantley and Aledmys Díaz to free agency. They’ve since re-signed Brantley and added José Abreu. Overall, the team is still going to be good, but is it enough to hold off the others? FanGraphs certainly thinks so, giving them the highest projected wins above replacement on their depth charts, but there are three clubs within striking distance.

Seattle Mariners – 2022 record: 90-72, projected 2023 fWAR: 43.5

The Mariners finally broke through in 2022, earning a Wild Card spot and reaching the postseason for the first time since 2001. That snapped the longest active postseason drought in the majors, a dishonor that now falls to the Tigers and Angels, who each last qualified for the playoffs in 2014.

This offseason, they have been fairly quiet in terms of free agency, with reliever Trevor Gott marking their only signing so far. They have made some notable trades, however, as is their wont. They acquired slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernández from the Blue Jays, sending reliever Erik Swanson and prospect Adam Macko the other way. They also acquired Kolten Wong from the Brewers, sending Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro to Milwaukee. Hernández and Wong will essentially replace two of the club’s most significant free agent departures in Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier.

The Hernández/Wong pairing could certainly act as an upgrade over Haniger/Frazier, but probably not a huge one. If the club is going to catch the Astros, it will likely have to come from gains made by players already on the roster. Having a full season of Luis Castillo, whom they acquired at the deadline last year, will certainly help. Julio Rodríguez had an incredible rookie season at the age of 21 but could perhaps be even better this year. A breakout from struggling young outfielder Jarred Kelenic would be a tremendous boost. Continued development from young pitchers like George Kirby and Matt Brash would also help.

Los Angeles Angels – 2022 record: 73-89, projected 2023 fWAR: 40.4

The Angels have continued to disappoint despite having two of the best players on the planet on their roster. That was the case again in 2022, as Mike Trout was limited by injury to just 119 games but still produced 6.0 fWAR while Shohei Ohtani produced 3.8 fWAR at the plate and 5.6 on the mound. Still, the club fell out of contention in the summer and never really made it back.

Despite years of falling short of expectations, there are reasons to think 2023 could actually be the year they deliver. They didn’t lose any key contributors to free agency, with players like Michael Lorenzen and Matt Duffy marking some of the most notable departures. They’ve also patched some of the holes that have caused their ship to sink in past years, as a lack of adequate depth has continually wasted the star performances at the top of the roster.

Starting pitching has long been a struggle for the club but the rotation seems like it could be in the best shape in years. 2022 saw encouraging developments from Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and José Suarez, all of whom are slated to return to the club this year. The Halos also supplemented that group by signing Tyler Anderson away from the Dodgers. That gives them a solid front five with Tucker Davidson, Griffin Canning and Chase Silseth on hand as depth options. On the position player side, they’ve added Hunter Renfroe, Brandon Drury and Gio Urshela. Those aren’t stars, but the Angels already had stars. They needed adequate role players to supplement their stars and seem to have added some solid options.

Texas Rangers – 2022 record: 68-94, projected 2023 fWAR: 41.9

Of the four plausible competitors in the division, the Rangers will need the biggest turnaround, since 2022 was rough. Turning a 68-win team into a contender in one offseason is no easy feat. But they already did most of the heavy lifting on the position player side last winter, adding Corey Seager and Marcus Semien on mega deals just prior to the lockout.

The big task of this winter would be upgrading the pitching staff and they have completely overhauled it. They re-signed Martín Pérez while signing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney and trading for Jake Odorizzi. Those five, along with incumbents Jon Gray and Dane Dunning, put the club in a much better position going forward. There are injury concerns scattered throughout that crew, but it’s miles beyond the staff they had last year.

Oakland Athletics – 2022 record: 60-102, projected 2023 fWAR: 29.3

Since the lockout ended in March, the A’s have leaned hard into a rebuild. In just the past ten months, they have traded away Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas and Sean Murphy. They lost 102 games last year and should be lined up for another rebuild/evaluation season. They’ve made marginal adds by signing Aledmys Díaz, Jace Peterson, Drew Rucinski and Trevor May, but the expectation of just about everyone is that they will be in the basement yet again this year.

______________________

The Astros will likely go into the season as the favorite, since they are the reigning World Series champs and have made a few solid moves this offseason. But there are plenty of reasons to think it could be an interesting battle all season long. The Mariners, Rangers and Angels have all made interesting moves this winter and are all within 8 WAR of the Astros according to the projections of FanGraphs. Is this the year the Astros get dethroned?

What do you think? Who will be best in the West in 2023? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Who Will Win The AL West In 2023?
Astros 55.33% (5,955 votes)
Mariners 16.76% (1,804 votes)
Rangers 12.96% (1,395 votes)
Angels 10.97% (1,181 votes)
A's 3.97% (427 votes)
Total Votes: 10,762
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