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Escalators Increased Price Of Rays’ Club Option On Mike Zunino

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Rays backstop Mike Zunino had the best season of his career in 2021, and his durability and strong production behind the dish have upped the price it’ll cost Tampa Bay to retain him in 2022. Zunino re-signed with the Rays on a one-year deal with a $4MM club option this past offseason, but as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times points out, it was reported at the time of the deal that Zunino’s option would increase from $4MM to $7MM if he appeared in 100 or more games this season.

Zunino topped that mark by reaching 109 games, and he swatted a career-best 33 home runs in the process. That mark, reached in 375 plate appearances, matches Zunino’s combined home run total from 2018-20 (778 plate appearances). The 30-year-old still strikes out at a prolific rate (35.2 percent in ’21), but he also posted the second-base walk rate of his career (9.1 percent) and played his usual brand of strong defense (7 Defensive Runs Saved, plus framing marks — albeit with a league-leading 10 passed balls). Overall, Zunino’s .216/.301/.559 batting line translated to a 134 wRC+.

It’s probably not realistic to expect Zunino to repeat that offensive season in 2022. His 30.3 percent homer-to-flyball ratio was the highest of his career by more than six percentage points and tied for the 19th-highest single-season mark of any player with at least 350 plate appearances, dating back to 2010.

That said, Zunino’s power surge doesn’t look like a total fluke, either. Statcast shows that his average exit velocity jumped from 88.9 mph from 2018-20 to 90.7 mph in 2021. His rate of barreled balls exploded from 12.8 percent in 2018-20 to 24.3 percent this past season, and his hard-hit rate jumped by more than five percentage points to 46.5 percent — second-best of his career. He’d be hard-pressed to repeat that showing across the board, but it’s reasonable to expect a middle ground between Zunino’s big 2021 and the underwhelming three prior seasons.

Regardless of the increased price, Zunino’s option looks like a relative bargain. The Rays owe him a $1MM buyout regardless, making it a net $6MM call on their end, and the free-agent market isn’t deep with alternatives. None of the available names can match Zunino’s blend of power and defense, and it stands to reason that were he set back out into the open market, he’d top the price of next year’s option with relative ease.

The Rays do have a potential successor on the roster already, as switch-hitting 25-year-old Francisco Mejia posted a solid .260/.322/.416 slash in a career-high 277 plate appearances this year. He’ll be arbitration-eligible this winter — as will a whopping 18 other Rays — but the combination of Zunino and Mejia should still be an affordable and productive pairing. (Anecdotally, keeping both for the 2022 season also curbs Mejia’s playing time and thus curbs future arbitration raises, though that’s unlikely to be a major part of the calculus.)

At the end of the day, any notable increase in salary (or potential salary) for a Rays player is worth mention, because the Tampa Bay front office makes surprising decisions driven by perennial payroll constraints every offseason. It’s tough to imagine moving on from Zunino after a 33-homer, All-Star season, but the very fact that it’ll cost them a few extra million dollars could also lead to some tougher decisions elsewhere on the roster.

East Notes: Rasmussen, Girardi, Orioles, Nationals

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The Rays first looked into acquiring Drew Rasmussen from the Brewers last offseason, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes, well before Tampa finally landed the right-hander as part of the Willy Adames trade in May.  However, Tampa Bay’s interest in Rasmussen really dates back to when the Rays selected him with the 31st pick of the 2017 draft, though a signing never took place because a post-draft physical revealed elbow damage, and led to the second Tommy John surgery of Rasmussen’s young career.

The lack of a deal was a disappointment for both Rasmussen and for veteran Rays scout Paul Kirsch, who brought Rasmussen to the team’s attention after evaluating his high school outings.  Kirsch did finally get to see Rasmussen pitch for the Rays in Seattle this past summer, which by that point counted as a rare trip to the ballpark for Kirsch after a three-year battle with ALS.  Kirsch passed away in September, and Rosenthal’s piece serves as a moving tribute to Kirsch, a beloved figure in the Rays organization and around the scouting community.

More from around both the AL and NL East…

  • The Phillies haven’t yet had any talks with manager Joe Girardi about his contract, though president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski admitted to media (including The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber) earlier this week that he “didn’t even know” about the Phillies’ club option on Girardi for 2023 until asked by a reporter.  2022 is the last guaranteed season of Girardi’s original three-year contract with the club, and Dombrowski didn’t believe the manager would be bothered by the lack of longer-term security, and added that “I think Joe did a good job for us.”  Girardi is 110-112 in his first two seasons in Philadelphia, a lack of success that has largely been attributed to the Phillies’ leaky bullpen and flawed roster construction moreso than any specific failings on the manager’s part.  Former Phils GM Matt Klentak hired Girardi after the 2019 season, before Dombrowski replaced Klentak last winter.
  • Cedric Mullins’ tremendous season cemented him as a building block for the Orioles, and Jon Meoli of The Baltimore Sun figures Mullins, Austin Hays, and Anthony Santander have become the team’s top outfield combination heading into 2022, with Ryan McKenna likely the top bench option.  The O’s have enough young outfield depth, however, that the position could be an area of surplus for the offseason.  If the Orioles look to trade from this surplus, Santander’s name has surfaced in trade rumors in the past, but his stock has likely fallen after an injury-shortened season.
  • Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo has already prioritized some offseason changes in how the Nats scout and develop their players, due to a lack of recent help in the minor league pipeline.  The draft is the most glaring example of this issue, as MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman notes that Anthony Rendon (picked sixth overall in 2011) is the last Washington draft pick taken in any round to generate more than 1.0 WAR for the team.  Of course, the Nationals have lost their share of picks for compensation purposes, and they’ve also traded some prospects (Lucas Giolito, first and foremost) who went on to become established big leaguers for other teams.  While these moves culminated in Washington’s 2019 World Series title, the thinned-out farm system has become more glaring in the wake of the Nationals’ 91-131 record since winning that championship.

Matt Wisler Aggravates Finger Injury

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TODAY: Wisler is managing the injury and will remain on the Rays’ roster, skipper Kevin Cash told MLB.com’s Adam Berry and other reporters.  “As we stand right now, he’s just too valuable to go away [from],” Cash said.

OCTOBER 9: The Red Sox broke the seal on mid-series roster moves yesterday when they removed Garrett Richards because of a hamstring injury, replacing him with Matt Barnes. Barnes quickly got some work in during yesterday’s blowout, tossing a scoreless, if rocky ninth inning. By that point, Boston was riding an eight-run lead and could allow Barnes to work himself in and out of trouble.

The Rays may be next in line to make a roster move. Righty Matt Wisler surrendered a three-run homer to J.D. Martinez that put the Red Sox up for good, and in the process, the Rays might have lost more than just game two. Wisler aggravated a previous finger injury that twice landed him on the injured list during the regular season, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter). It is not yet clear if the Rays will make a move. If they do – like Richards – Wisler would be out until the World Series at the earliest.

The Rays sent Michael Plassmeyer to the Giants for Wisler in June when his value was low. The veteran had seen some poor luck in getting out to a poor start in terms of raw run prevention, posting a 6.05 ERA in 21 games with the Giants despite a 4.10 FIP. He promptly turned it around in Tampa, making 27 appearances with a 2.15 ERA/2.22 FIP over 29 1/3 innings.

Rays Announce ALDS Roster

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The Rays on Thursday announced their roster for their ALDS showdown against the division-rival Red Sox. Notable omissions include outfielder and 2020 postseason hero Brett Phillips as well as left-hander Ryan Yarbrough, who led the Rays with 155 innings pitched this season (and leads the team in innings by a mile dating back to his 2018 debut).

Keeping Phillips off the roster deprives the Rays of a premium defender in the outfield and ample speed on the bases, but Phillips’ .110/.207/.164 slash against lefties could be easily exploited by a Red Sox roster that has no shortage of southpaws. Conversely, his omission allows the Rays to carry the right-handed-hitting Jordan Luplow, who has hit lefties at a .245/.360/.539 clip in his career. Luplow’s production against lefties in 2021 has dissipated, but his overall body of work against them is formidable.

As for Yarbrough, it was no doubt a difficult decision on a personal level to keep him off the roster. However, the lefty had a tumultuous season, yielding five or more earned runs in 10 of his 30 appearances (21 starts, nine appearances as a bulk reliever behind an opener). While Yarbrough had his share of excellent outings, the end-of-year results were a career-worst 5.11 ERA and a career-low 17.9 percent strikeout rate. He can still be added to the ALCS or World Series roster, should the Rays advance that far — although it should be noted with regard to a potential ALCS showing that the Astros and White Sox were two of the four best-hitting lineups against lefties in all of baseball.

Here’s how Tampa Bay’s roster breaks down…

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Designated Hitter

One year after making his Major League debut during the postseason, the 24-year-old McClanahan will now get the ball as the Game 1 starter for the Rays. The former first-rounder and top prospect enjoyed a very strong rookie campaign, working to a 3.43 ERA with 27.3 percent strikeout rate and 7.2 percent walk rate in 123 1/3 innings (25 starts). The Rays were cautious with McClanahan’s workload early in the season (hence the rather brief average start length), regularly capping him at four or five frames. They generally kept him on a short leash throughout the year to keep his innings down after scarcely pitching in 2020 (when there was no minor league season), but McClanahan tossed six-plus innings in six of his final 16 starts.

Baz, just 22, will be making only his fourth big league start when he takes the mound in Game 2. The big stage didn’t seem to impact him at all upon making his debut in September, as he pitched to a 2.03 ERA with an 18-to-3 K/BB ratio in 13 1/3 innings over three starts to begin his MLB career. Acquired alongside Meadows and Tyler Glasnow in the lopsided deal that sent Chris Archer to the Pirates, Baz is widely regarded as one of the game’s top overall pitching prospects. He demonstrated precisely why that’s the case with a dominant minor league season, working to a combined 2.06 ERA with a 37.9 percent strikeout rate and a 4.4 percent walk rate in 78 2/3 frames between Double-A and Triple-A. While neither Shane is necessarily a household name right now, that could change quickly depending on how the postseason plays out — and both are vital long-term pieces for the Rays.

Rays’ President Erik Neander Signed Five-Year Extension

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Last month, the Rays announced they’d signed baseball operations leader Erik Neander to a multi-year contract extension that included a promotion from general manager to president of baseball operations. The team didn’t specify the contract’s exact length, but Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times now reports the extension tacked on an additional five seasons. Neander’s now locked up to run the club’s baseball operations through the 2026 campaign.

The Rays didn’t announce the deal until the first week of September, but Topkin adds the additional tidbit that it was actually agreed upon during the season’s first half. Going into the All-Star Break, the Rays sat half a game behind the Red Sox in the AL East standings. Tampa Bay went on a 47-25 tear in the season’s second half, though, coasting to a division title and their first 100-win season in franchise history. They’ve clinched home field advantage through the American League playoff field and will host the winner of tomorrow night’s Yankees – Red Sox Wild Card game in their Division Series.

That success has come in spite of one the game’s tightest player budgets. The Rays opened the season with a payroll just shy of $67MM, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the fifth-lowest mark in the league. Neander and his staff have habitually managed to put together strong rosters in the face of those significant limitations, making it easy to see why owner Stuart Sternberg was anxious to keep him in the fold. Neander would certainly have drawn interest from other teams this offseason — the Mets have been connected to a handful of the sport’s highest-profile executives, in particular — which no doubt played into ownership’s decision to hammer out a long-term deal over the summer.

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

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It took 162 games to decide things, but given all of the uncertainty heading into the final day of the regular season, it is perhaps an upset that a 163rd game (or even a 164th) wasn’t required.  However, the field for the 2021 postseason has now been decided.

The Giants outpaced the Dodgers in a stunning NL West pennant race.  San Francisco shocked the baseball world by winning 107 games, the most victories in the franchise’s 139 seasons.  As a reward, the Giants will get a few days to rest and prepare for the NL Division Series opener on Friday, while Los Angeles (with a whopping 106 wins) will now have to sweat out a single-game eliminator against the hottest team in the sport.

The Cardinals roared into the NL wild card game thanks to a 35-16 record over their last 51 games, including a franchise-record 17-game winning streak.  The Dodgers will host the Cards on Wednesday, and while the two clubs are postseason regulars, this will be their first meeting in the playoffs since 2014.

After a season of tributes to the late Henry Aaron, perhaps it was destiny that Milwaukee and Atlanta would do battle in the postseason for the very first time.  The 95-67 Brewers will host the 88-73 Braves in Game One of their NLDS meeting, which begins on Friday.

The Brewers caught fire in midseason and ran away with the NL Central, topping St. Louis by five games even despite the Cards’ late surge.  Despite a few shaky moments along the way, the Braves nonetheless overcame the loss of injured superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. to capture their fourth straight NL East title.

“Champa Bay” has already collected two Stanley Cups and a Super Bowl within the last two years, and the 100-62 Rays will look to add a World Series title to the local trophy case.  The Rays will start their journey in the AL Division Series on Thursday, and they’ll be facing off against a familiar AL East opponent, no matter who wins the AL wild card game.

That opponent will be decided on Tuesday, as the Yankees and Red Sox will add another chapter to their rivalry by meeting in the wild card game for the first time.  Both New York and Boston won today to clinch their postseason berths, finishing with identical 92-70 records (and holding off the 91-win Blue Jays and the 90-win Mariners).  Because the Sox won the season series by a 10-9 margin, Tuesday’s game will take place at Fenway Park.

The Astros and White Sox will square off in the other ALDS matchups, meeting for the first time in the postseason since Chicago defeated Houston in the 2005 World Series.  The 95-67 Astros have the homefield advantage over the 93-69 White Sox, and this series will mark the first-ever postseason meeting between veteran managers Dusty Baker and Tony La Russa.

Now that we know which 10 teams will be continuing into October, the question remains….who do you think will be the last team standing at the end of October? (Link to poll for app users)

Who will win the 2021 World Series?
Giants 18.31% (6,375 votes)
Dodgers 16.69% (5,811 votes)
Rays 13.92% (4,847 votes)
Cardinals 10.28% (3,581 votes)
Braves 9.63% (3,354 votes)
White Sox 9.17% (3,195 votes)
Brewers 7.00% (2,439 votes)
Astros 5.79% (2,016 votes)
Yankees 5.25% (1,827 votes)
Red Sox 3.96% (1,379 votes)
Total Votes: 34,824

Rays Recall Chris Mazza, Option Louis Head

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We still have two days left in the regular season, so the Rays roster churn continues. Chris Mazza has been recalled from Triple-A, while Louis Head has been optioned, though he’ll remain on-hand as part of the taxi squad, per the team.

Head is no stranger to the taxi squad. The 31-year-old has put together a solid rookie season with a 2.31 ERA/3.11 FIP in 35 innings of work. Head has a 23.9 percent strikeout rate, enviable 6.7 percent walk rate, and 31.1 percent groundball rate. Despite keeping the ball in the air, he’s limited long balls to just a 1.5 percent home run rate.

Mazza will be available out of the bullpen for these final two regular season games. Mazza, also 31, has appeared in 13 games for the Rays, pitching to a 4.97 ERA/4.35 FIP across 25 1/3 innings.

Rays Reinstate Andrew Kittredge From 10-Day Injured List

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4:54 pm: Conley has tested positive for the virus, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). Fortunately, he’s currently asymptomatic, but the quarantine period could threaten Conley’s availability for the Rays’ Division Series that begins next week.

11:47 am: Right-hander Andrew Kittredge has been reinstated from the Rays’ injured list after a 10-day minimum absence due to a neck strain.  To make room on the active roster, Tampa Bay placed left-hander Adam Conley on the COVID-19 injury list.

After four inconsistent years as a reliever, starter, and opener with the Rays, Kittredge rejoined the team on a minor league deal, looking to rebound after a 2020 season shortened by a UCL injury.  The results have been startling, as Kittredge has one of the best members of the very strong Tampa bullpen and will likely be a big factor in the team’s postseason pitching plans.

Kittredge has a 1.55 ERA/2.96 SIERA over 69 2/3 innings, mostly working out of the bullpen with a few opener appearances on his resume.  As per Statcast, no pitcher in baseball has a higher chase rate than Kittredge, which has translated into an above-average 27.5% strikeout rate to go along with an excellent 5.6% walk rate.  The righty has also continued to keep the ball on the ground, with a 54% groundball rate that stands as a new career high.

Conley will be sidelined for a quarantine period if he has tested positive for the virus, though there isn’t yet any indication if Conley has COVID-19 or if his placement is a precaution due to symptoms or contact tracing.  (As always, teams are not obliged to reveal whether or not a player’s stint on the COVID-IL is due to a positive test.)  After signing a minors deal with the Rays in May, Conley has a 2.29 ERA/4.01 SIERA over 19 2/3 relief innings.

Yoshi Tsutsugo Is Finding His Stride In Pittsburgh

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Expectations likely weren’t too high for most onlookers when Yoshi Tsutsugo signed with the Pirates last month. Pittsburgh was the third organization of the season for the 29-year-old Tsutsugo — a star with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball who’d struggled since signing a two-year contract with the the Rays. That contract guaranteed Tsutsugo a total of $12MM, but he never found his footing with Tampa Bay.

In 272 plate appearances as a member of the Rays, Tsutsugo batted just .187/.292/.336 with a 28.3 percent strikeout rate. He showed a bit of pop during the shortened 2020 season, at least, slugging eight homers and reaching base enough to register an even 100 wRC+ through 185 plate appearances (in spite of a poor .197 batting average). Things went much worse in 2021, as Tsutsugo went homerless with an increased strikeout rate and decreased walk rate through 85 trips to the plate. The Rays designated him for assignment on May 11.

A trade to the Dodgers didn’t bring about better fortunes. Tsutsugo appeared in only 12 games and went 3-for-25 without an extra-base hit and a dozen strikeouts. Los Angeles outrighted him off the 40-man roster in early July and released him by mid-August.

Enter the Pirates.

Pittsburgh is paying Tsutsugo the prorated league-minimum after signing him on Aug. 15, and since donning the black and gold, he’s quietly looked like the middle-of-the-order bat the Rays hoped to be signing in the first place. It’s a small sample, but Tsutsugo has flat-out mashed for the Bucs. In 117 plate appearances prior to today’s game, he’s turned in a .291/.368/.612 slash with as many home runs (eight) as he tallied in 303 plate appearances between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles.

It’s not just the long ball that’s driving the turnaround, either. Tsutsugo fanned at a 29.4 percent clip between the Rays and Dodgers, but that’s plummeted to 19.7 percent in Pittsburgh. He’s added seven doubles and a triple with the Pirates, too, bringing his extra-base hit total to 16 (just two fewer than his combined mark in his prior two organizations).

Like many other hitters in recent years, Tsutsugo has found some success by beginning to elevate the ball more regularly. His 42.4 percent ground-ball rate during his time between L.A. and Tampa Bay has dropped to just 33.3 percent with his new club. His infield-fly rate has dropped, his line-drive rate has risen a bit, and he’s improved his barrel percentage — even if his overall hard-hit rate has declined.

Defensively, the Pirates have played Tsutsugo in right field and at first base. The results in the outfield haven’t been great, which isn’t a huge surprise. He was billed as primarily a first baseman or left fielder upon coming over from Japan, but the Rays deployed him at both infield corners and in both outfield corners. Colin Moran’s presence and the lack of a designated hitter in the National League has pushed Tsutsugo to the outfield too frequently, but it’s of course possible there will be a designated hitter in the NL next season, which would open some more avenues for Tsutsugo.

This all amounts to little more than a trial run with the Pirates, as Tsutsugo’s initial contract called for him to become a free agent after the 2021 season. That’s still the case, as noted by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette last month. One would imagine that a rebuilding team like the Pirates wouldn’t have taken a post-trade deadline look at Tsutsugo in the first place without some interest in retaining him beyond the current season, though. Even if he was viewed as a mere placeholder at the time, his play in Pittsburgh ought to have piqued the front office’s interest moving forward.

Improbable as it might’ve seemed a few weeks ago, they’ll now likely face competition in that regard. After all, this is a hitter who posted a combined .293/.402/.574 batting line with 139 home runs, 116 doubles, five triples, a 15.1 percent walk rate and a 20.4 percent strikeout rate in his final four seasons of NPB action. That includes a huge 2016 season, when Tsutsugo launched a career-high 44 home runs and slashed .322/.430/.680.

Given that Tsutsugo won’t turn 30 until November and is now starting to look a bit closer to that NPB form against Major League competition, it would only stand to reason that other teams would have interest. The expected advent of a universal DH can’t hurt his chances, if it indeed comes to fruition.

It’s possible Tsutsugo will simply prefer to return to Japan, where he’d undoubtedly garner interest from other NPB clubs. However, if he’s intent on carving out a career in the Majors, his late run with the Bucs should create opportunities to do just that — whether it’s back in Pittsburgh or with a fourth organization in three years.

Carlos Gomez Officially Announces Retirement

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Former major league outfielder Carlos Gómez officially announced his retirement this afternoon in a ceremony at Milwaukee’s American Family Field (video via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). The announcement finalizes the end of a 13-year major league career.

Of course, there hasn’t been much doubt that Gómez’s playing days had already concluded. The 35-year-old last played in the majors in 2019, and he hasn’t played professionally since wrapping up a stint with the Aguilas Cibaenas in the Dominican Winter League between 2019-20. Reports out of the Dominican Republic in January 2020 indicated Gómez’s playing days were likely coming to an end, but he hadn’t publicly finalized that decision until today.

Gómez ceremoniously hung up his spikes as a Brewer, with whom he had the best run of his career. Acquired from the Twins over the 2009-10 offseason, the electric center fielder spent the next four and a half seasons with the Brew Crew. At his peak, Gómez was one of the sport’s top power-speed threats. Between 2013 and 2014, the right-handed hitter posted a .284/.347/.491 line with 47 home runs. He chipped in 74 stolen bases over those two seasons while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense.

Gómez earned down-ballot MVP support in both of those campaigns, and few players could match his well-rounded skillset. Over that two-year stretch, Gómez ranked seventh among all position players in FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement, trailing only Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, teammate Jonathan Lucroy, Buster Posey, Miguel Cabrera and Josh Donaldson.

Milwaukee traded Gómez to the Astros at the 2015 deadline for then-prospects Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana, Josh Hader and Adrian Houser. It proved an opportune time for the Brewers to add an influx of young talent still helping the team immensely today, as Gómez’s productivity was never quite the same from that point forward. As he entered his 30’s, Gómez bounced around the league with a few clubs. He ended his playing days with the Mets, ironically the team that initially signed him as a 16-year-old back in 2002.

Gómez appeared in the majors with six different clubs over the course of his career, although he’ll be best known for his peak in Milwaukee. He appeared in 1461 MLB games and hit .252/.313/.411 with 145 home runs, 236 doubles and 41 triples. Gómez stole 268 bases, scored 675 runs and drove in 546. He appeared in two All-Star Games and won a Gold Glove during his aforementioned star-level peak. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued his career at around 25 WAR. MLBTR congratulates Gómez on a very fine career and wishes him all the best in his future endeavors.

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