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Latest On Yoenis Cespedes

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Free-agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes held a showcase in Florida that 11 teams attended on Tuesday, according to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. The Yankees, White Sox, Brewers, Blue Jays, Tigers (one of Cespedes’ ex-teams), Padres, Rays, Reds, Marlins, Cubs and Braves were all on hand to watch Cespedes, per Davidoff.

As Davidoff notes, it’s interesting that the majority of clubs that scouted Cespedes are in the National League, which doesn’t appear likely to feature the designated hitter position in 2021. DH seems like the logical spot for Cespedes if he’s going to continue his career, as he hasn’t played the field since 2018, he’s aging (35), and he’s coming off four straight abbreviated seasons because of health issues. The two-time All-Star, most recently with the Mets, played in just 127 of a possible 546 regular-season contests from 2017-20.

Cespedes opted out of last season in August over COVID-19 concerns, but heel and ankle problems dogged him before then and helped make the four-year, $110MM guarantee he received from the Mets in November 2016 a disaster for the club. The two sides agreed to an amended contract in December 2019 that reduced Cespedes’ base salary from $29.5MM to $6MM, but New York didn’t get any bang for its buck out of that.

While Cespedes comes with question marks, he won’t land an expensive deal, which is one of the reasons so many clubs are considering him. When healthy, Cespedes has been a force at the plate, where he has batted .273/.327/.497 (124 wRC+) with 165 home runs in 3,490 trips. That track record could make him a worthwhile buy-low pickup for someone.

Kiermaier Easing Into Action

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  • The Rays are cautiously easing Kevin Kiermaier into action this spring, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Kiermaier is experiencing hip soreness, and the Rays don’t want the issue lingering into the season. Kiermaier has dealt with a number of “lingering” health issues over the years that’s limited his playing time. Kiermaier was largely healthy in 2020, appearing in 49 games and slashing .217/.321/.362 before notching some big hits in the postseason, including three home runs. Of course, Kiermaier’s value proposition has never been hit bat. The three-time gold glove centerfielder is the linchpin of the Rays’ defensive scheme. They’ve made sure to acquire rangy outfielders to flank him in recent years (Manuel Margot, Randy Arozarena, Austin Meadows, Brett Phillips), but Kiermaier remains the best defender of the bunch.

Rays Re-Sign Chaz Roe To Major League Deal

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FEB 22: This deal is official, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter), as if their deal with Collin McHugh.  The Rays announced that Yonny Chirinos and Oliver Drake have been placed on the 60-day injured list to open up roster space for Roe and McHugh.

FEB 21: The Rays are in agreement on a contract with reliever Chaz Roe, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). The 34-year-old returns to the Tampa Bay organization for a fifth consecutive season. It’s a one-year, major league contract, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). The Apex Baseball client is guaranteed $1.15MM, per Topkin.

Roe has found a decent amount of success with the Rays over the past few years. Thanks to a wipeout slider he uses well over half the time, the right-hander has never had any trouble racking up punchouts. Over the past three seasons, Roe has pitched to a 3.74 ERA with a strong 27% strikeout rate. He has run into some trouble with walks but generally been a solid bullpen piece for manager Kevin Cash.

The Rays waived Roe off the 40-man roster after some concerning developments last season. Roe’s average fastball velocity was down a tick relative to past years, while he generated swings and misses at a career-worst 8.8% clip (against a league average 11.8% swinging strike rate for relievers). Most concerning, his season was cut short by elbow soreness after just 9.1 innings, as Roe didn’t pitch after August 19.

Nevertheless, the Rays are sufficiently satisfied Roe’s health woes are behind him at this point. The veteran threw in front of teams last weekend and apparently impressed Tampa Bay brass enough to bring him back into the fold with a guaranteed roster spot.

Brent Honeywell Progressing In Recovery From Injury

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  • Rays pitching prospect Brent Honeywell has been knocked off course by a series of arm injuries, undergoing four elbow surgeries since his last minor-league action in September 2017. The 25-year-old is now back in major league camp and feeling better than he has in years. “I’m excited. I’m healthy. … Everything is good. After this last one, it was a big-time help for me, and it was a big-time relief of my elbow. Everything is so-called ‘on track,’ and we’re moving in the right direction,” Honeywell told reporters (including Adam Berry of MLB.com). There’s no specific timetable for the 25-year-old’s return to game action but there seems to be a general sense of optimism regarding Honeywell’s ability to contribute at the big league level in 2021.

2021 Arbitration Hearing Results & Post-Deadline Agreements

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January 15 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to officially submit salary figures for the 2021, and by the time the day was done, only 13 players didn’t reach agreement on a contract.  The majority of teams now adhere to the “file or trial” strategy, meaning that no further negotiations on a one-year deal will take place between the arbitration deadline and a hearing with an arbiter, which theoretically puts pressure on players to get a deal done if they are wary about taking their case to a third party.

“File and trial” tactics didn’t stop the Astros and Carlos Correa from agreeing to a one-year deal for just the 2021 season, which is also Correa’s last year before gaining free agent eligibility.  We also saw three multi-year deals reached, all from the greater Los Angeles area — the Dodgers reached two-year deals with Walker Buehler and Austin Barnes, while the Angels inked a two-year pact with Shohei Ohtani.

This left nine unresolved cases that went all the way to a hearing (held over Zoom) between an arbiter, the player, his representative(s), and front office personnel arguing the team’s side.  The teams won five of the nine hearings, continuing the very narrow edge teams have held over players in arb cases in recent years — over the last 99 arbitration hearings, teams hold a 51-48 record over players.

For the full list of every salary for every arbitration-eligible player this offseason, check out the MLB Trade Rumors Arb Tracker.  Sticking to the 13 players with unresolved cases from January 15, here’s the rundown…

Avoided Arbitration, One-Year Contract

Avoided Arbitration, Multi-Year Contract

Arbitration Hearings, Won By Player

Arbitration Hearings, Won By Team

Rays To Re-Sign Oliver Drake

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7:22pm: Drake will earn $775K in the deal, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. The contract includes a roster bonus of $325K if Drake hangs onto a spot for fifty days.

7:43am: The Rays have agreed to a Major League deal with right-hander Oliver Drake, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). The 34-year-old had a very strong showing with Tampa Bay in 2019 but battled forearm and biceps issues in 2020 and was ultimately removed from the 40-man roster during the postseason in order to make room for an ALDS replacement. He elected free agency after clearing waivers. He’s still recovering from the effects of that injury, it seems, as Topkin adds that Drake is expected to be ready to pitch around midseason.

Drake’s 2020 season was a rough one, as he was tagged for eight runs (seven earned) on seven hits and six walks with seven strikeouts in 11 frames. The forearm strain clearly dogged him, however, as evidenced by his fastball velocity dropping more than two miles per hour in his limited slate of work. He first hit the injured list with biceps tendinitis in early August before landing back on the IL due to a flexor strain in October.

The 2019 season was another story entirely for Drake. A year after riding the DFA carousel like none other and appearing for a record five teams in one season, Drake cemented himself in the Rays’ bullpen with a very strong showing. Through 56 innings, Drake worked to a 3.21 ERA and near-identical 3.18 SIERA while striking out 32 percent of opponents against a tidy 8.7 percent walk rate. Drake also induced grounders at a 52.3 percent clip and was, in general, something of a Statcast darling that year. He ranked in the 83rd percentile or better in each of the following categories: whiff percentage, overall strikeout percentage, expected ERA, expected batting average against, expected slugging percentage against and expected wOBA.

Whether he can return to those heights will be largely dependent on his health, but it makes good sense for the Rays to bring him back on an affordable deal to see if he can do just that. And by waiting until pitchers and catchers report to make the move, Tampa Bay can effectively stash Drake on the 60-day injured list from the jump. Had they signed him earlier in the offseason, they’d have had to boot someone else from the 40-man roster and carry him on the 40-man until camp opened and the 60-day IL was made available. Should Drake return to form, he’d be controllable through the 2022 season via arbitration.

Rays Acquire Chris Mazza, Jeffrey Springs From Red Sox

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9:19am: The teams have officially announced the four-player trade. Tampa Bay placed lefty Jalen Beeks, who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, on the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot. The Red Sox, notably, announced that backup catcher Kevin Plawecki has been placed on the Covid-19 related injured list (which can be done either for positive cases or for players who have been exposed to positive cases).

9:00am: The two sides have agreed to the trade of Mazza, Springs and cash for Hernandez and Sogard, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

8:09am: The Rays and Red Sox are moving toward a trade that would send recently designated-for-assignment pitchers Chris Mazza and Jeffrey Springs from Boston to Tampa Bay in exchange for minor league catcher Ronaldo Hernandez and another Rays farmhand, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter thread). MLB.com’s Adam Berry tweets that 23-year-old Nick Sogard, the Rays’ 12th-round pick in 2019, is the other player going to Boston in the deal.

Hernandez ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects as recently as the 2018-19 offseason, so it’s a bit of a surprise to see the Rays deal him and another minor leaguer in exchange for a pair of recently DFA’ed arms. Hernandez’s prospect stock has tumbled in recent seasons, however, and the Rays are likely aiming to stockpile as much optionable pitching depth as possible to get them through a 2021 season when most pitchers will be on limited workloads.

Mazza, 31, has spent time in the Majors with the Mets and Red Sox across the past two seasons but hasn’t matched his strong Triple-A results. In 46 1/3 big league innings, he’s posted a 5.05 ERA and 4.96 SIERA with sub-par strikeout (21.3), walk (11.0) and ground-ball (35.4) percentages. Mazza does carry a 3.72 ERA in 92 Triple-A frames and a 3.24 mark in 283 2/3 Double-A innings, but he’s been with five MLB organizations (Twins, Marlins, Mariners, Mets, Red Sox) and hasn’t carried those results to the big leagues yet.

The 2020 season was Springs’ first with the Red Sox, and it proved to be a struggle. In 20 1/3 frames, the former Rangers southpaw was tagged for a 7.08 ERA. He struck out 28 percent of his opponents against just a seven percent walk rate, but five of the 99 opponents Springs faced took him deep. He has a 5.42 ERA and 4.66 FIP in 84 2/3 innings at the Major League level between the Texas and Boston organizations.

Mazza limited hard contact reasonably well in 2020, while Springs showed plenty of aptitude for missing bats even if he yielded too many long balls. Both figure to be shuttled back and forth between the Rays’ Triple-A club in Durham and their MLB roster throughout the season. The Rays surely believe they can coax more out of both players as well, either by tinkering with their pitch mixes or altering their approach with the existing arsenals of Mazza and Springs.

The trade also illustrates the volatility of prospects and serves as a reminder not to be too beholden to prospect lists, which are typically just a snapshot in time anyhow. Hernandez posted big numbers in Rookie ball and had a strong full-season debut in 2018 when he slashed .284/.339/.494 with 21 homers in 109 games. His 2019 season in Class-A Advanced, however, resulted in a lackluster .265/.299/.397 showing, though he did rebound with a good showing during 11 games of Arizona Fall League action.

Hernandez still ranked 13th among Tampa Bay prospects, per Baseball America, but perhaps the Rays’ internal evaluations vary. It’s tougher than ever to evaluate prospects right now after they didn’t have a minor league season in 2020 and weren’t as widely accessible for scouts. The Rays may feel that Hernandez’s stock is more diminished than the general public consensus. Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, meanwhile, knows Hernandez quite well from his time as a Rays vice president and was likely more than content to roll the dice on a prospect at an organizational position of need when the cost was a pair of arms the Sox determined to be fringe 40-man contributors.

Boston will also pick up Sogard, a utility-infield type who is devoid of any power but can move around the diamond with a contact-driven skill set at the plate. Sogard hit all of two home runs in his NCAA career and slashed .290/.405/.313 in 63 games for the Rays’ short-season Class-A affiliate following the draft. He walked nearly as often as he struck out that year — a trend which aligns with his college days at Loyola Marymount.

Rays Trade John Curtiss To Marlins

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The Marlins and Rays are in agreement on a trade sending right-hander John Curtiss from Tampa Bay to Miami in exchange for minor league first baseman Evan Edwards, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link).

John Curtiss

Curtiss, who’ll turn 28 in early April, had his first taste of Major League success with the Rays in 2020. The former Twins draftee ranked as one of the more promising relief prospects in the organization as he climbed through the minors, but he struggled in the big leagues with two teams (Twins, Angels) and in Triple-A with a third (Phillies) before finally landing with the Rays and ostensibly breaking through.

In 25 innings last year, Curtiss posted a 1.80 ERA with a 25.3 percent strikeout rate and just a three percent walk rate. He’s never displayed that level of command before last year’s shortened season, however, and walks have often been his undoing when he’s struggled. Curtiss also benefited from an 87.2 percent strand rate that he’s not likely to sustain. Curtiss has slightly above-average spin and velocity on his fastball, though he also yielded one of the highest average exit velocities in the game last year (92 mph).

Clearly the Marlins are of the belief that Curtiss can continue to thrive in the big leagues, even if he takes a step back from last year’s sub-2.00 ERA. Curtiss does have multiple minor league option years remaining, so he’ll give the club some depth and flexibility in the ’pen for the foreseeable future. He’s controllable all the way through the 2025 campaign if he can manage to solidify himself as a consistent big league presence.

In return for Curtiss, the Rays will receive the 23-year-old Edwards — a 2019 fourth-rounder out of North Carolina State. He only has half a season’s worth of pro experience due to last year’s lack of minor league games, but Edwards was productive in that time. In 308 plate appearances following the draft, Edwards batted .281/.357/.442 with nine homers, 15 doubles and a triple.

It should be noted, though, that the Marlins weren’t particularly aggressive with Edwards’ assignments that year, sending him to short-season Class-A and then the Class-A Midwest League where most of the competition he faced was younger than him. He also posted a 26.9 percent strikeout rate, so he’ll likely need to improve his bat-to-ball skills as he climbs the minor league ladder. Edwards didn’t rank among the Marlins’ top 30 prospects heading into the 2021 season, per Baseball America.

Rays Win Arbitration Case With Ryan Yarbrough

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The Rays have won their arbitration hearing against left-hander Ryan Yarbrough, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (via Twitter).  Tampa Bay will pay Yarbrough $2.3MM in 2021, as opposed to the $3.1MM salary Yarbrough was hoping to land.

This was the first of four arb-eligible years for Yarbrough, who qualified for the extra arbitration year by gaining enough service time to reach Super Two eligibility.  He therefore gets his first big (if not quite as big as he was hoping) guaranteed payday a bit earlier in his career, and he’ll have an opportunity for greater earning potential as his arbitration salaries escalate up until he is eligible for free agency following the 2024 season.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a salary in the range of $2.2MM to $3.6MM for Yarbrough, a wider range than usual due to both the unusual nature of the 2020 season and due to the Rays’ unique usage of Yarbrough for much of his pro career.  Tampa often deployed Yarbrough as a bulk pitcher in both 2018 and 2019, with the southpaw entering the game for extended outings in “relief” after an opener tossed the first inning or two.

Yarbrough mostly worked as a regular starter in 2020 (starting nine of 11 games), which may have additionally worked against him since arbiters tend to rely on traditional statistics in hearings.  By that standard, Yarbrough only recorded one win and 44 strikeouts in 55 2/3 innings, along with a 3.56 ERA.  This case could also be an important precedent for future arbitration cases involving bulk pitchers, as the Rays and other teams continue to blur the lines between the standard definitions of starters and relievers.

No matter the role, Yarbrough has posted some solid numbers over his three MLB seasons and 344 2/3 career innings.  The 29-year-old has a 3.94 ERA (4.44 SIERA) and a middle-of-the-pack 20.3% strikeout rate, but also a tiny 5.8% walk rate.  Between this strong control and an elite ability to limit hard contact, Yarbrough had found success despite a fastball that averaged only 87.4mph last season.

The Rays end the 2020-21 arbitration season with a .500 record in cases, topping Yarbrough but losing to first baseman Ji-Man Choi.

Rays To Sign Collin McHugh

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FEB. 12: The Rays have finalized a $1.8MM deal with McHugh, pending a physical, Topkin reports.

FEB. 11, 9:55pm: If finalized, it will be a one-year major league pact, Topkin writes.

9:15pm: The Rays and right-hander Collin McHugh are closing in on an agreement, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. There’s “work to be done” on both sides prior to the deal becoming official, though, Topkin adds.

McHugh was largely successful with the Astros as a starter and reliever from 2014-19, but elbow issues negatively affected him in the last of those years and continued to do so in 2020. McHugh signed with the Red Sox before last season, but he was ultimately not healthy enough to pitch for the club. The 33-year-old has recovered since then, though, according to Topkin, and his history indicates he could be a useful pickup for the Rays if he is indeed back from his arm problems.

McHugh, also a former Met and Rockie, would bring a lifetime 3.95 ERA with almost a strikeout per inning and fewer than three walks per nine across a lifetime 800 2/3 frames to the Rays. Considering McHugh established himself in Houston as someone capable of filling long- and short-inning roles, it seems he would fit in well on a Tampa Bay team known for its flexibility with its pitching staff.

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