Heyman On Trumbo, Ellsbury, Davis, Santana
Mark Trumbo is the Angels' most wanted player via trade, but the Halos are very reluctant to trade him, writes Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. "He fits us," said someone connected to the Angels. Meanwhile, Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick, Peter Bourjos and Chris Iannetta also are getting a fair number of trade inquiries, and they could move one of them. Here's more of Heyman's latest..
- One club with interest in Jacoby Ellsbury says that agent Scott Boras has set Carl Crawford's $142MM contract as a benchmark in discussions, Heyman writes. One rival GM who isn't in on Ellsbury argued that Crawford was better and more durable at the time of his deal.
- The Astros, Orioles, Rays, Brewers and Rockies all have checked in on Mets first baseman Ike Davis, despite his awful 2013 campaign, according to Heyman. In the case of Milwaukee, however, they may prefer re-signing Corey Hart instead.
- Heyman suggests that the Marlins and Cubs could discuss a swap of top prospects and officials from both sides agree that they could have something to discuss. The Cubs have high-end position prospects such as Kris Bryant (who may be untouchable), Javier Baez, and Albert Almora, while Miami has a stockpile of strong young arms.
- We learned last week that Ervin Santana's asking price was $100MM and today Heyman hears that agents Bean Stringfellow, Joe White, and Jay Alou are seeking a five-year, $112MM pact. The agents are going around with a book of arguments to support their case, including some comparisons to Dodgers star pitcher Zack Greinke.
- The A's have joined the fray for free agent Nelson Cruz, but the small-market club could run into problems when it comes to dollars and years, Heyman writes. Oakland has been looking for a right-handed-hitting outfielder after declining to pick up the option on Chris Young, but Cruz would be a much bigger splash than anyone anticipated.
AL East Notes: Lester, Blue Jays, Rays
The Red Sox want relief help, but they aren't likely to pursue high-priced acquisitions, reports WEEI.com's Rob Bradford. That means no moves like last year's trade for Joel Hanrahan, and it also means they won't be in the market for players like Joe Nathan or Grant Balfour. Still, GM Ben Cherington hopes to acquire relievers who might end up pitching in key spots. "We want as many guys as possible that we think have the potential and the stuff to pitch in high-leverage situations," he says. Here's more news from the AL East.
- The Red Sox have not begun discussing an extension with starting pitcher Jon Lester, but they appear likely to do so near the start of spring training, Bradford writes. If the Red Sox do sign Lester to an extension, they will likely wait until after Opening Day to complete it, since his current contract only counts $9.4MM per season against the 2014 luxury tax. The average annual value of an extension would likely be far greater.
- The Blue Jays may need to add two starters this winter, writes SportsNet.ca's Shi Davidi. They have R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, and also Brandon Morrow, who's recovering from a forearm injury. After that, they'll be leaning on players like J.A. Happ, Esmil Rogers, and Todd Redmond, plus youngsters Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison and Sean Nolin. That group isn't the greatest bet to provide top-quality innings, at least not in 2014.
- The Rays are interested in finding a first baseman, catcher and late-inning reliever this offseason, the Tampa Bay Times' Marc Topkin tweets. The reliever may not be a proven-closer type, which is no surprise given the Rays' budgetary constraints. They'll also look for bench help.
AL West Links: Mariners, Cruz, Napoli, Preller, Angels
"The expectation is" that the Mariners will target right-handed hitters such as Jhonny Peralta, Marlon Byrd, Mike Napoli and Nelson Cruz this offseason, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. The M's were particularly weak from the right side of the plate last season and will look to upgrade their right-handed bats, though really, Seattle will look to add hitting in any form. Ken Rosenthal also noted that the Mariners were looking at right-handed hitters earlier this week, though he noted that the M's were in on Napoli. Here's some more news from around the AL West…
- Cruz declined his qualifying offer from the Rangers today and Adam Katz, Cruz's agent, told ESPN Dallas' Richard Durrett that he will continue to talk with the team about his client's possible return to Texas. "We've always been engaged with the Rangers and continue to be," Katz said. Durrett notes, the draft pick compensation tied to Cruz may hurt him in free agency, though MLBTR's Steve Adams recently predicted Cruz would find a three-year, $39MM deal on the open market.
- Brian Grieper, Napoli's agent, is scheduled to meet with Rangers GM Jon Daniels during the GM Meetings, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram tweets. The Rangers are known to be looking for an upgrade at first base and Napoli, a former Ranger, would definitely fit the bill.
- The Rangers have promoted A.J. Preller to assistant general manager, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports (Twitter link). Preller had previously worked as the team's senior director of player personnel. Texas also named Mike Daly, formerly their director of international scouting, as the franchise's new senior director of minor league operations.
- The Angels have been opposed to going over the luxury tax limit under Arte Moreno's ownership and that's not likely to change, MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez writes. Gonzalez also looks at Mark Trumbo trade rumors and a possible Mike Trout extension as part of his all-Angels mailbag.
- In another item from Gonzalez, he speculates about what the Angels might have to give up (and what the Rays might want) in order to facilitate a David Price trade.
- Earlier today on MLBTR we collected another set of AL West notes earlier today on MLBTR, a set of Astros-related notes and learned that the Angels signed Wade LeBlanc to a minor league deal.
Wil Myers, Jose Fernandez Win Rookie Of The Year Awards
Rays outfielder Wil Myers and Marlins right-hander Jose Fernandez have respectively won the AL and NL Rookie of the Year Awards. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced both results today, with the full voting breakdowns available on the BBWAA's website.
Once promoted to the majors on June 16, Myers lived up to his lofty prospect status by hitting .293/.354/.478 with 13 homers and 50 runs scored in 373 PA with the Rays. It could be argued that the Rays could've avoided the wild card game had they promoted Myers sooner, though holding him back until June will likely allow Tampa Bay to gain another year of control over Myers and keep him from reaching Super Two status. It could also be argued that the Royals would've been better served by keeping Myers rather than dealing him as part of the James Shields blockbuster last offseason, as fans and pundits could be debating the merits of that trade for years to come.
Myers earned 23 of 30 first-place votes from the writers, plus five second-place votes and one third-place vote. Tigers shortstop Jose Iglesias finished second in the balloting with five first-place votes (plus 17 seconds and four thirds). Rays righty Chris Archer and Athletics righty Dan Straily each received one first place vote and finished third and fourth in the voting, respectively, while Angels outfielder J.B. Shuck finished fifth. Myers joins Evan Longoria and Jeremy Hellickson as Rays who have won Rookie Of The Year awards.
Though Fernandez was a consensus top-five prospect before the season and the 14th overall pick of the 2011 draft, the Marlins' decision to promote him to the majors was met with surprise given Fernandez's young age (20) and the fact that he has never pitched above the high-A ball level. The righty was more than prepared for the big leagues, however, posting a stunning 2.19 ERA over 28 starts, and recording 187 strikeouts against only 58 walks over 172 2/3 innings.
Fernandez is the second Cuban-born player to be named Rookie of the Year, after the Twins' Tony Oliva in 1964. Fernandez joins Chris Coghlan, Hanley Ramirez and Dontrelle Willis as the only Marlins to capture ROY honors.
Fernandez took 26 of 30 first-place votes and finished second on the other four ballots. Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig received the other four first-place votes and 25 second-place votes to finish second in the voting, though he was also left off one ballot entirely. Cardinals righty Shelby Miller, Dodgers southpaw Hyun-jin Ryu and Braves righty Julio Teheran round out the top five in the NL voting.
Crasnick On Cano, Tanaka, Price, Ellsbury
ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick checked in with 21 general managers, assistant GMs, player personnel people, and scouts to get their take on some of the biggest storylines of the winter. Here's a look at some of the highlights..
- Almost everyone sees Robinson Cano staying put with 19 votes for the Yankees, one vote for the Dodgers, and one for the Cubs. Nearly everyone sees Cano getting a seven- or eight-year deal worth $160MM-$230MM and no one expects him to approach the $300MM figure he was asking for from the Bombers earlier this year. It should be noted that the GM that picked the Cubs said that he has no inside info to support that pick.
- Nine execs see Masahiro Tanaka landing with the Dodgers while six chose the Yankees. All but a handful of those surveyed think his payout will exceed the $60MM Yu Darvish got from the Rangers. Tanaka is ranked as the top available pitcher by MLBTR's Tim Dierkes.
- Seventeen of the 21 participants in the survey say David Price will get traded this winter. Where will he land? The Rangers got nine votes and the Dodgers got four nods with one vote each for the Nationals, Cardinals, Angels, and Astros.
- Opinions were somewhat split on whether Jacoby Ellsbury or Shin-Soo fChoo will provide better value over the course of their next deals. Twelve execs said Ellsbury, eight voted for Choo, and one GM declined to vote, saying that neither one will match what they get.
- When asked to pick the best pitcher between Matt Garza, Ervin Santana, and Ubaldo Jimenez, ten execs chose Garza. Most seemed to agree that the lack of quality starting pitching available will lead to all three being overpaid. One American League scout seemed to like Jimenez on some level but was skeptical of him long-term. "Ubaldo has the best chance to give you impact in the short term, but I am not buying him over the course of 3-4 years," the scout said.
- When asked which former Yankees prospect has a better chance of succeeding elsewhere with a change of scenery, Phil Hughes was the overwhelming choice over Joba Chamberlain.
- Crasnick asked the execs which aging pitcher had the most left in the tank between Roy Halladay, Hiroki Kuroda, and Tim Hudson. Kuroda had the backing of 12 people surveyed, Hudson got eight votes, and Halladay had just one exec in his corner. "Maybe the chances of [Halladay] coming back aren't real good if you look at it objectively," a scout said. "But if the guy wants to [keep pitching] and be successful, I wouldn't put it past him."
Cafardo On Trumbo, Ethier, Kemp, Arroyo, Red Sox
In today's column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe offers up a primer for this week's GM Meetings. Cafardo's first rule for the meetings is to never believe a GM when he says that a player will not be traded. New Marlins GM Dan Jennings has said that Giancarlo Stanton won't be moved, but everyone has a price. Cafardo also cautions not to buy into the notion that the Tigers won't find a way to enhance the team and also keep Max Scherzer after next season. Here's more from today's column..
- If the Red Sox don’t re-sign Mike Napoli, the 27-year-old Mark Trumbo will be on their list of players to pursue. Trumbo, who would come at half Napoli’s price, is under club control until after the 2016 season and boasts tremendous right-handed power. The Angels could use a third baseman and a pitcher and Cafardo wonders if Will Middlebrooks and Felix Doubront might suit them. The Pirates and Rays could also be fits for the Halos slugger.
- One or both of Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp could be dealt this offseason thanks to the Dodgers' surplus. The Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, and Blue Jays are among the clubs that could have interest.
- The Phillies are among the clubs that have shown interest in Bronson Arroyo, but no offer has been made just yet. The Giants and Twins have also been reported to have interest in the durable veteran, but none of the interested teams have put an offer on the table just yet.
- While the Blue Jays have other priorities, they’ll also dip into the outfield market if they feel Melky Cabrera can’t give them what they expected. Cabrera recently had a spinal tumor that was causing him leg pain removed.
- Despite having a glut of pitchers, the Red Sox are still high on Tim Hudson. To make room for the 38-year-old, the Red Sox could move Jake Peavy or Ryan Dempster if they have to. However, teams seem more interested in John Lackey since he'll earn the minimum salary in 2015. A clause in Lackey's contract called for him to get the minimum in '15 if he underwent Tommy.John surgery.
- The Red Sox probably won't offer more than a couple of years to retain Stephen Drew with his market rapidly expanding. The Yankees could be a fit with Derek Jeter being in the final year of his contract and likely to see more DH time.
- A few GMs are already lamenting the cost of free agent pitching with possible $80MM-$100MM price tags on the likes of Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco. That's why the Yankees' pursuit of Masahiro Tanaka, a potential No. 2 starter, makes more sense than paying big bucks for a No. 3 or 4 type.
- The Blue Jays picked up Adam Lind's option, but don't be surprised if Toronto tries to move him.
East Notes: Braves, Phillies, Mets, Rays, Red Sox
Matt Eddy at Baseball America has a nice writeup on recent minor league transactions, noting that the Braves use various pro scouting channels to amass cheap bullpen talent. Recent additions to the team's 40-man roster include 29-year-old Wirfin Obispo, who was signed as a minor league free agent in 2012 and reaches the upper 90s with his fastball. The Braves also added lefty Ryan Buchter, whom they acquired in 2011 in a trade for another minor league arm. Buchter, 26, was one of just four pure relievers in the minor leagues in 2013 to record 100 strikeouts. Here's more from baseball's Eastern divisions:
- Jim Salisbury of Comcast Sportsnet examines free agents Edward Mujica and Joaquin Benoit as potential eighth-inning options for the Phillies. The club may be looking for a setup man again after last winter's acquisition, Mike Adams, missed much of 2013 with shoulder surgery.
- Marc Carig of Newsday offers an early look at the Mets' strategy in free agency. With more than $40MM in payroll space opening up this offseason, the Mets could be major players, and a club official tells Carig that only Robinson Cano will be too expensive. With holes in the outfield, at shortstop and in the rotation, the team also figures to be active in trade discussions, Carig writes.
- David Wright is working to sell free agents on the Mets, Adam Rubin of ESPN New York reports. "I’ve talked to a few players, but I expect I’ll do more of it as we have a better idea of who we’re going after," Wright says. The star third baseman adds that he doesn't believe players are concerned about the club's financial situation, though Matt Harvey's Tommy John surgery has emerged as a topic.
- Rays GM Andrew Friedman tells the Tampa Bay Times' Marc Topkin that the team remains in the early stages of its offseason planning. "I think every October and into early November we're overwhelmed and not feeling all that confident that we'll be able to execute on our plan, and this year is no different," Friedman says. The Rays are expected to listen on lefty David Price this offseason and must also address openings at first base, DH and closer.
- Writing for WEEI.com, Alex Speier says the Red Sox's decision not to extend Jarrod Saltalamacchia a qualifying offer likely stems from the fact that the team couldn't risk three players accepting the one-year, $14.1MM deal in the same offseason. The Sox ultimately opted to extend the offer to Mike Napoli, Stephen Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury, with Ellsbury expected to decline. Speier provides a breakdown of the Sox's 2014 payroll, concluding that Boston likely has around $32MM to spend.
Starting Pitching Notes: Scherzer, Nats, Miller, Tanaka
The Max Scherzer trade rumors don't make much sense to Lynn Henning of the Detroit News, who argues that a Tigers club built to win in 2014 can't afford to move an ace pitcher unless another team makes "an incredibly loony price" in a trade. The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore hears from a source who flatly denies that Scherzer will be dealt, and Kilgore wonders if the Tigers' alleged willingness to trade may hint at concerns about Scherzer's future performance.
Here are some items about notable arms that could be had via trade or free agency this offseason…
- The Nationals have the minor league depth to acquire the likes of Scherzer or David Price, Kilgore writes. It could be more likely that the Nats pursue a younger pitcher who is under control for more years, a la the team's deal for Gio Gonzalez.
- Shelby Miller is "an under-the-radar potential [trade] target," a baseball official opines to Kilgore. Miller pitched just one postseason inning for the Cardinals due to concerns that he had a tired arm, though Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer notes that were rumors that Miller was really being saved for a possible trade this winter. I'm not sure if I believe that theory; you'd think the Cards would've had all healthy arms on deck in pursuit of a World Series.
- The Cubs are interested in Masahiro Tanaka, GM Jed Hoyer told David Kaplan on WGN Radio's The David Kaplan Show (Twitter link). "He's going to help somebody and we will be in on him," Hoyer said.
- Matt Sosnick, Josh Johnson's agent, says he has talked to "nearly every team" about his client, including the Rangers, ESPN Dallas' Richard Durrett reports. The Rangers appeal to Johnson due to their winning ways because he lives in nearby Oklahoma, though since Sosnick says Johnson would prefer "at least a pitching-neutral ballpark," Rangers Ballpark might be a hindrance.
- The Angels' signing of starter Chris Volstad could spell trouble for starters Jerome Williams and Tommy Hanson, writes Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles TImes. Volstad is cheap and young, and DiGiovanna says that the club may not see much difference between him and the club's pricier, pre-existing options. In his breakdown of the Halos' arbitration-eligible players, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes calls Hanson a definite non-tender candidate, and says Williams could also be shown the door.
- ESPN's Jim Bowden speculates about six possible David Price trades (ESPN Insider subscription required).
MLBTR's Jeff Todd also contributed to this post
Olney On Price, Relievers, Colon, Salaries, Red Sox
David Price's trade value may never be higher than it is right now, ESPN's Buster Olney argues, so the Rays may have to quell their competitive instincts and deal the ace southpaw even if they "aren't completely sold" on offers they receive before the year is out. Olney covers several other topics in his Insider-only piece, such as how quality relievers such as Joe Smith or J.P. Howell could command three-year contracts worth $12MM-$18MM this winter. Here's more from Olney…
- Despite Bartolo Colon's good numbers in 2013, Olney says (in a video blog) that there isn't a strong market for his services since executives simply don't know what to expect from the soft-tossing 40-year-old. Olney thinks Colon will find a one-year, $10MM-$12MM deal for 2014, similar to what MLBTR's Steve Adams predicts. Despite the mutual interest between Colon and the Athletics, however, Olney predicts Colon will sign with a big-market team.
- Some agents believe there will be "a notable spike in salaries this winter," Olney tweets.
- In an appearance on WEEI Radio's Mut & Merloni Show on Wednesday (WEEI.com's Jackson Alexander has a partial transcript), Olney said that if the Red Sox make Brian McCann a competitive offer, McCann would consider taking slightly less money since he's a good fit in their clubhouse atmosphere.
- Also from the radio interview, Olney thinks "the smart play" for Stephen Drew would be to accept Boston's $14.1MM qualifying offer. I'm not sure I agree with Olney, as while Drew couldn't find a $14.1MM average annual salary on the open market, he'd surely find a multiyear contract. MLBTR's Tim Dierkes thinks Drew can find a four-year, $48MM deal this winter.
- Olney also thinks the Mariners will try "to change the conversation" about their franchise by making a major offer to Jacoby Ellsbury.
Free Agent Profile: James Loney
James Loney was an afterthought in the August 2012 blockbuster trade that reshaped the Red Sox and Dodgers, with Boston sending Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto, and cash to Los Angeles. Loney joined various Dodgers prospects coming to the Red Sox, and soon after became a free agent for the first time. He found just a $2MM guarantee with the bargain-shopping Rays, and made good by rediscovering his hitting stroke and playing his usual strong defense at first base.
Strengths/Pros
Loney's line drive swing produced a .299 batting average this year, which ranked 13th in the American League. His solid .285 career batting average is owed largely to his high contact rate. He struck out just 12.9% of the time this year, a mark bested by only 17 AL players. Loney's 29.8% line drive rate this year topped all of MLB.
Loney's strong batting average helped him to a .348 on-base percentage this year, topping the typical first baseman's .332 mark. Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), which is park and league-adjusted, measures a player's total offensive value against the league average. Loney's 118 figure this year means he was 18% better than the league average hitter. Among free agents with at least 400 plate appearances, Loney's wRC+ ranked ninth among all free agents, beating out players such as Kendrys Morales, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Justin Morneau. Loney has shown he can excel in baseball card numbers as well, averaging 89 RBI per year from 2008-10.
While Loney's sweet swing had him batting fifth in the Rays' lineup for much of the year, his calling card is his defense at first base. He was a Gold Glove finalist this year, and has continually been sought out for his defense. Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman explained Loney's positives in August to MLB.com's Bill Chastain, saying, "James has been one of the better defensive first basemen in the game for a while, and fit right in with our emphasis on defense. But he's also demonstrated good natural hitting ability, especially against right-handers, and a contact bat that adds a different dimension to our lineup. We felt that with everything he brings to the table, he had a real chance to thrive in our environment."
Durability is another strong suit for Loney — he's never been on the disabled list in a career that has spanned eight seasons. Aside from his tumultuous 2012, Loney has averaged 159 games per season since 2008.
Loney has youth on his side, as he doesn't turn 30 until May. And unlike free agent first basemen Mike Napoli and Kendrys Morales, Loney did not receive a qualifying offer and is not tied to draft pick compensation.
Weaknesses/Cons
Loney is underpowered for a first baseman, a drawback for those who believe the offensive standard should be higher at his position. He's continually posted isolated power marks around .130, while the average first baseman was at .176 this year. The typical first baseman can hit at least 20 home runs, while Loney is generally good for 13 or so. Loney can still add value as a hitter, but he won't appeal to teams seeking power in free agency.
Loney hit .299/.339/.390 against left-handed pitching in 166 plate appearances this year, providing hope that he will not need to be platooned. But from 2010-12, Loney was terrible against southpaws, hitting .218/.256/.299 in 425 plate appearances.
Loney had a rough 2012 in general, hitting .249/.293/.336 in 465 plate appearances. Overall, his play was below replacement level. Loney has only been worth two-plus wins above replacement twice in his career, in 2011 and '13. Otherwise, he's often been around replacement level. Though he drove in a good amount of runs from 2008-10, Loney was still just a league average offensive player, and his defense generally doesn't make up for that. The Rays seemingly rescued Casey Kotchman's career in 2011, but he was terrible in the season that followed. Fair or not, some teams might connect the two first basemen and wonder if Loney can maintain success outside of Tampa Bay.
Personal
James' parents, Ann and Marion, met when both were basketball players at SUNY Oswego. James was born in Houston and still lives in Texas with his wife Nadia and their son, born this year. James told MLB.com's Ken Gurnick in 2008 he had a hard time deciding whether to root for the Astros or Braves as a kid. When the Dodgers drafted Loney out of high school in the first round in 2002, most teams viewed him as a pitcher, wrote Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times in 2011.
Loney is known as a laid-back player. "Loney is so calm that sometimes you wonder if there's a pulse," wrote Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe in May. "I think he's the most unaffected guy I know," Dodgers assistant GM Logan White told Hernandez in 2009. Former teammate Randy Wolf used the word "spacey," and former manager Joe Torre agreed. Giants first baseman Brandon Belt may own the nickname "Baby Giraffe," but Wolf used that term to describe Loney's awkwardness in the '09 article, and the first baseman's nickname was "Geoffrey" after the Toys R Us giraffe.
Market
Loney changed agencies around the opening of free agency, jumping from CAA to The Legacy Agency. Without knowing the details, the agency change prior to the biggest payday of Loney's career suggests dissatisfaction with his previous contract.
Several teams may be in the market for a first baseman this winter, assuming the Rays don't retain Loney. The Brewers, Pirates, Twins, and Rockies don't have clear plans at first base, though the Rockies seem to be seeking right-handed power. The Rangers could be an option if they move on from Mitch Moreland and find bigger bats elsewhere. As far as starting first basemen, Loney's competition on the free agent market consists of Mike Napoli, Corey Hart, and Justin Morneau, plus maybe Kendrys Morales, Paul Konerko, Mark Reynolds, and Kevin Youkilis.
Expected Contract
I expect Loney's agent to set out with a three-year deal in mind, since he's a relatively young player and the average annual value on the contract won't be staggering. Ultimately, I think he'll land a two-year, $16MM deal.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.