Five Teams Showing Early Interest In Grant Balfour
Grant Balfour is expected to sign with a new team as a free agent this offseason after three excellent years with the A's — two of which came as the team's closer. According to the latest from Susan Slusser at the San Francisco Chronicle, the Yankees, Tigers, Rockies, Rays and Angels have all expressed interest in the hard-throwing Aussie.
Balfour, 36 in December, saved 62 games for the A's over the past two seasons as their primary ninth-inning option and has a sparkling 2.47 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 254 2/3 innings dating back to 2010. It's a buyer's market for closers this offseason, with Balfour, Joe Nathan, Fernando Rodney, Joaquin Benoit, Chris Perez, Jose Veras, Edward Mujica and Kevin Gregg among the free agents who saved at least 20 games this past season. Brian Wilson, who returned as a dominant setup man, figures to garner interest for ninth inning jobs as well.
Interest between the Tigers and Balfour will turn a few heads due to the fact that Balfour's signature shouting on the mound didn't sit well with Victor Martinez in the ALDS, leading to a benches-clearing confrontation. Still the Tigers figure to add at least one high-profile arm this winter after opening last season with no set closer and experiencing ugly results from a carousel of relievers until Benoit solidified the job.
Rays, DeJesus Agree To Two-Year Deal
WEDNESDAY: Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune provides the breakdown of the new contract (on Twitter). DeJesus will be paid $4.25MM in 2014 and $5MM in 2015. The club option is valued at $5MM with a $1MM buyout. Topkin also tweets that DeJesus received a $250K signing bonus.
TUESDAY, 7:18pm: DeJesus' deal is worth $10.5MM over the first two seasons, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). Of course, the Rays also hold an option on the ACES client's third year.
MONDAY, 8:40am: The Rays and David DeJesus have agreed to a new two-year contract that will cover the 2014-15 seasons and include a club option for 2016, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (on Twitter). 
DeJesus, 34 in December, took an interesting path to the Rays. Originally signed to a two-year, $10MM contract with the Cubs, he was claimed off waivers in August by the Nationals this summer. However, GM Mike Rizzo instantly put DeJesus back on waivers, and the Rays claimed him two days later. The Nationals ultimately acquired lefty Matthew Spann from the Rays in exchange for DeJesus, which appears to have been Rizzo's plan all along (to acquire a prospect — not Spann specifically).
DeJesus batted .260/.328/.413 in 35 games (117 plate appearances) with the Rays, adding three more hits in the playoffs as the Rays advanced to the ALDS — the first postseason experience of DeJesus' career. Overall on the season, DeJesus slashed .251/.327/.402 and played solid defense in all three outfield positions, per UZR (DRS didn't like his work in center, pegging him at -6 runs).
Rays manager Joe Maddon is no stranger to using platoons to his advantage, and he'll have to do that to maximize DeJesus' value. Though he could once handle his own against left-handed pitching, DeJesus is batting a ghastly .162/.248/.207 against southpaws dating back to 2011, signaling that he's a clear platoon bat at this stage of his career. The flipside of that is that he's done very well against right-handed pitchers, slashing .274/.356/.441 in 1,068 plate appearances.
Extending DeJesus calls into question Matt Joyce's future with the Rays, in my mind. The two are very similar players in the sense that each hits right-handed pitching well but must be platooned against left-handers. Joyce appears to be a trade candidate or non-tender candidate now (he's projected to earn $3.7MM). Perhaps Rays GM Andrew Friedman decided that if he's going to carry a platoon outfielder, he wants him to be a strong defender. Joyce's defensive metrics have slipped in right field in recent seasons, and he doesn't come with DeJesus' versatility, as he's played just 32 innings in center field in his Major League career.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rosenthal On Nats, Scherzer, Phillies, Price, Rangers
The Nationals are looking to add an "elite" starting pitcher via trade, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, and they're in luck, as both Max Scherzer and David Price have been rumored to be available this winter. Rosenthal explains his reasons behind believing that Scherzer could be a better fit, highlighted by the fact that Nats GM Mike Rizzo drafte Scherzer in the first round when he was the Diamondbacks' scouting director. Rosenthal's sources maintain that the Tigers aren't shopping Scherzer at this point but rather just listening to offers. Here's more from a jam-packed column from Rosenthal…
- The Phillies have kicked around the idea of trading for Price, but it's unlikely to happen. The Phils would likely have to include top prospect Jesse Biddle in a potential package and perhaps Domonic Brown as well. Also, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. recognizes that his club has multiple needs and that he will need to make multiple additions rather than going "all-in" on one big splash like Price or free agent center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.
- While many will argue that Tim Lincecum's deal doesn't impact the free agent markte for starting pitchers because it was the Giants paying to keep one of their own, Rosenthal points out that other starters and their agents will argue the direct opposite — "that the Lincecum contract was merely the outgrowth of supply-and-demand economics." In particular, he feels that it hurts the Pirates in their quest to retain A.J. Burnett. Rosenthal wonders how the Bucs can possibly retain Burnett after Lincecum got $17.5MM per year when they didn't even want to offer Burnett a $14.1MM qualifying offer.
- The Rangers are once again pondering their infield logjam and whether or not to trade one of Elvis Andrus or Ian Kinsler. Kinsler could also be moved to first, though it may be less appealing that moving Kinsler and his salary ($57MM through 2017). Kinsler's contract makes him the easier of the two to trade. Figuring out the middle infield and securing some salary relief could be the key to the Rangers' offseason, he adds.
- The Mariners consider right-handed pop their biggest need, and Rosenthal wonders if they'll take a second run at Mike Napoli, who they tried to land last offseason.
Rays Decline Juan Carlos Oviedo’s Option
The Rays have declined Juan Carlos Oviedo's $2MM 2014 option, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. They will instead pay a $30K buyout.
The former Marlins closer did not pitch at all in 2013, as he had Tommy John surgery during the 2012 season. The Rays purchased his contract anyway in March, then placed him on the 60-day DL. Oviedo has a 4.34 ERA, 7.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in seven big-league seasons.
East Notes: Phillies, Mets, Orioles, Rays
The Phillies' possible offseason targets include Nelson Cruz and Carlos Beltran, CSNPhilly.com's Corey Seidman notes. Seidman suggests that signing Cruz to a two-year deal for $30MM might make sense. He notes that, while the Phillies shouldn't be trying to get older at this stage, and with $120MM already committed to other players in 2014, they won't have a ton of money to spend. A power-hitting outfielder appears to be the Phillies' greatest short-term need, however. Here are more notes from the East divisions.
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson says it's "safe to say" the loss of a draft pick won't prevent them from signing a free agent who has received a qualifying offer, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. The Mets' first-round pick in next year's draft, the tenth overall, is protected. If they sign a free agent, they could lose their second-round pick, but not their first.
- Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com wonders if the Orioles can afford to extend both Chris Davis and Matt Wieters without stretching themseles too thin. Dubroff notes that if Wieters were a free agent this year, he’d probably more coveted than Atlanta’s Brian McCann, who is ranked as the fourth-best free agent available by Tim Dierkes.
- The Rays' biggest obstacle in finding a deal for ace David Price might be their own sky-high expectation for a return, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Tampa Bay will want to beat out their return for James Shields by a vast margin, but they may have to accept a little less than what they have in mind.
Zach Links contributed to this post.
Rays Exercise Club Option On David DeJesus, Discussing Extension
The Rays have exercised the club's $6.5MM option on outfielder David DeJesus, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. (With a $1.5MM buyout, this was effectively a $5MM decision.) Meanwhile, the sides are also discussing a multi-year extension, Topkin further tweets.
This news rates as at least a mild surprise, largely due to Tampa's historically lean payroll, which has landed just over $60MM at opening day the last two years. Looking ahead, the Rays owe $23.6MM to five players in 2014, and could spend right around $30MM on arbitration-eligible players. MLBTR's Mark Polishuk was among those who expected the option to be too pricey for GM Andrew Friedman to exercise it. Of course, if ace David Price finds a new home, his projected $13.1MM salary would open a lot of room.
DeJesus, who turns 34 in December, has been a solid-if-unspectacular contributor for some time now. He was exactly league average at the plate in terms of OPS last year, and he's never posted an OPS+ of under 91 or over 118 in a full season of action. (He played in just 91 games in 2010, when he managed a 127 OPS+ for the Royals.) Of course, the lefty has historically struggled against southpaws, with a .252/.321/.342 slash line that is dwarfed by his .289/.365/.447 line against righties. Even worse, that split has significantly worsened over the course of his career. Formerly just slightly below average against lefties, DeJesus has put up three straight wRC+ marks of 32 or lower when facing same-armed hurlers. DeJesus has divided his time about evenly between center field and the corner outfield, and is generally viewed as acceptable at the former and good at the latter.
The $6.5MM that DeJesus will earn next year becomes the largest annual payroll he's pulled down. He joined Tampa through the August non-revocable waiver trade market, after spending much of the season with the Cubs and then getting three at-bats with the Nationals on his way south.
Cafardo On Free Agency, Price, Nathan, Lackey
Free agents are not allowed to negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs until 11:01 pm (CT) Monday, but agent Scott Boras says his phone was ringing off the hook regarding Jacoby Ellsbury and Stephen Drew within hours of the Red Sox winning the World Series, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The Yankees will be the most interesting team during free agency, according to Cafardo, but will be hamstrung until a decision is made on Alex Rodriguez's appeal. Cafardo also lists the Phillies, Tigers, Giants, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rangers as active participants in the free agent market. In other tidbits from his Sunday Baseball Notes column:
- Both LA teams are interested in acquiring David Price from the Rays. The Angels may have a slight edge because they can put together package with bats like Mark Trumbo and Howie Kendrick while the Dodgers have an overstocked rotation.
- Joe Nathan should be of interest to both the Tigers and Yankees even though the latter seems to have settled on David Robertson as Mariano Rivera's replacement.
- There may be no better time for the Red Sox to trade John Lackey than right now.
- The Red Sox may consider re-signing Joel Hanrahan after he recovers from Tommy John surgery to provide protection for incumbent closer Koji Uehara.
- Franklin Gutierrez, whose $7.5MM club option was declined by the Mariners, is an intriguing player who can still perform at a high level when healthy. Staying healthy has been an issue for Gutierrez with six trips to the disabled list in the last four years.
- Johan Santana, whose $25MM club option was declined by the Mets, is another pretty good low-cost gamble.
AL East Links: Price, Lester, Papi, Orioles
Timing will be the trickiest issue of the offseason for Rays, GM Andrew Friedman tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Even if Friedman has an early opportunity to address first base (e.g. re-signing James Loney) or left field, he will have to keep the possibility of a David Price trade in the back of his mind. Acting too quickly to fill either hole could cause the team to miss out on a superior, more permanent option at the position that could be filled in a potential Price trade. Says Friedman: "We have to utilize all the information we have accumulated to that point to make the best decision possible while also appreciating the trickle-down effect of each move." Here's more from the AL East…
- Jon Lester told reporters, including WEEI.com's Alex Speier, that he's excited to be returning to the Red Sox for another year after having his option picked up but hopes that he can work out a long-term deal with the team. Lester is currently more focused on celebrating Boston's 2013 World Series victory, but said "Hopefully [next year is] not the only one and we can be here for a long time."
- David Ortiz is still producing at a virtually ageless clip, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald in arguing that the Red Sox should extend their DH. Big Papi is signed through 2014, but his potent bat and status as face of the franchise should earn him a lengthier guarantee, opines Silverman.
- The Orioles must decide if they wish to protect left-handers Chris Jones and Tim Berry as well as catcher Michael Ohman from the Rule 5 Draft by adding them to their 40-man roster, says Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Connolly also points out the potential fit between the O's and Mark Ellis, should Brian Roberts not be re-signed. There's still some mutual interest between Baltimore and Roberts, Connolly reports.
Rays Exercise 2014 Club Options On Zobrist, Escobar
The Rays have exercised their club options over utilityman extraordinaire Ben Zobrist and shortstop Yunel Escobar, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. As Topkin notes, the club's more difficult option decision comes due tomorrow, when Tampa must act on David DeJesus.
Neither move comes as a surprise, given that the option amounts for Zobrist and Escobar ($7MM and $5MM, respectively) are modest compared to their 2013 production. Zobrist slashed .275/.354/.402, a step back from his offensive output over 2011-12. But with stellar defense and baserunning, he nevertheless managed a third straight 5+ fWAR campaign and remains one of baseball's best values and most adaptable players. Escobar put up an exactly league-average wRC mark, but that will play at short, particularly when combined with outstanding fielding. He figures also to provide surplus production going forward after putting up a redemptive 3.9 fWAR in his first year in Tampa.
The best news for the Rays is that the club has virtually identical club options for this pair next year, as well. (Zobrist's jumps in value by $500k, though his buyout also plummets.) Tampa will hope the decision is just as easy next time around.
Free Agent Profile: Fernando Rodney
When Fernando Rodney signed a one-year, $2MM contract with the Rays that contained a club option for the 2013 season, many were surprised to see him receive a Major League deal. Rodney rebounded from an injury-plagued 2011 season that saw him walk more batters than he struck out to turn in the most dominant season (in terms of ERA) in Major League history in 2012. He'll hit the free agent market as one of the top relief arms available coming off a pair of big seasons in Tampa.
Strengths/Pros
Only one free agent reliever — Jesse Crain — posted a higher K/9 than Rodney's 11.1. Rodney whiffed 28.2 percent of the hitters he faced in 2013, a mark that can only be topped by Crain and Joe Nathan. 
In terms of pure velocity, there's no free agent pitcher among starters or relievers with at least 10 innings pitched that can top Rodney's 96.5 mph average fastball. As such, it's no surprise to see him tied for the second-best swinging-strike rate at 12.5 percent. In other words, Rodney flat out overpowers hitters.
The 2013 campaign marked the fifth consecutive season in which Rodney has posted a ground-ball rate north of 50 percent. His 50.6 clip ranks sixth among right-handed peers on the free agent market.
As noted in the intro, Rodney's 0.60 ERA in 2012 was the lowest ERA in baseball history for a relief pitcher. Predictably, there was some regression in 2013, resulting in a 3.38 ERA. ERA estimators FIP (2.46), xFIP (2.88) and SIERA (2.69) all still love Rodney, though. As a result, Rodney ranks seventh among all qualified relief pitchers from 2012-13 in fWAR at 3.6.
Rodney remains a fastball/change-up pitcher, but the combination has become more effective with age, as he's continually added to his velocity over the past several seasons. While many pitchers see their velocity decline as they get older, there are no such concerns with Rodney.
Dominant as he was, Rodney won't be receiving a qualifying offer from the cost-conscious Rays, so he won't require a draft pick to sign.
Weaknesses/Cons
While Rodney's strikeout numbers are typically sky-high, so too are his walk totals. Rodney shocked everyone by averaging just 1.8 walks per nine innings in 2012 (5.3 BB%), but his command woes returned in 2013. Rodney has averaged 4.5 walks per nine innings in his career (11.4 BB%), and he averaged 4.9 per nine innings in 2013 (12.4 BB%). This past season was a make-or-break year for his walk rate; had he kept it down, teams may have believed that he'd corrected the issue. As it turns out, 2012's walk rate just looks fluky.
Rodney will turn 37 next March, so while he's increasing his velocity and delivering the best innings of his career, one has to wonder when he will start to show his age. There's plenty of precedent for relievers enjoying success in their late 30s and even into their early 40s, but Rodney lacks the track record of a Joe Nathan or a Mariano Rivera — two recent examples of such success.
That lack of a track record is what makes evaluating Rodney truly difficult. Heading into 2012, Rodney had a 4.42 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 5.2 BB/9 over his previous 266 2/3 innings in the Majors. He'd never been able to hold down a closer's gig for more than a year at a time, as evidenced by the fact that he's saved almost as many games in two seasons with the Rays (85) as he had in nine previous seasons combined (87). Which guy is Fernando Rodney? The erratic, often hittable setup man or the dominant relief ace that held opponents to a .186/.266/.259 batting line from 2012-13? That's the question that scouts and GMs will have to answer this winter.
Personal
Rodney and his wife, Helen, have four children ranging from eight months old to 12 years old, according to the Rays media guide. As noted by MLB.com's Bill Chastain, Rodney is popular among his teammates, with Joel Peralta among the most vocal about his desire for Rodney to return. Chastain also notes that Jose Lobaton would like to see the closer return as well.
Market
Peralta feels that Rodney would take a discount to remain with the Rays. Peralta says that he and Rodney are like brothers, and that Rodney is beloved in the clubhouse. That thinking directly contradicts a recent report by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Times, who wrote last weekend that Rodney will explore the market.
Rodney's agent, Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group, will likely attempt to position his client as the next-best closer on the market after Nathan. They'll have a compelling point, as Rodney's 85 saves in 2012-13 are the most of any free agent, and his 1.91 ERA in that time is topped only by Crain and his balky shoulder. Unfortunately, it looks to be a buyers' market for relief pitchers, as Rodney will be joined by Nathan, Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Edward Mujica, Jose Veras and the recently released Chris Perez — each of whom saved at least 21 games this season. And that doesn't even count Brian Wilson, he of 171 career saves, who will be a free agent after re-establishing his value and announcing his health in a late-season cameo with the Dodgers.
Expected Contract
Rodney has transformed himself from a 2011-12 afterthought to a Top 50 free agent for the 2013-14 offseason. He's a candidate to secure a multiyear contract, even though competition among closer types will be fierce. As is the case with all relievers on this market, it will behoove Rodney to sign early in the offseason while his options are still plentiful.
I'm comfortable projecting the same two-year, $18MM contract for Rodney that I projected for Balfour earlier in the month. Ultimately, our predictions are going to be off on some of these relievers, as there are just too many closer types competing for a limited amount of jobs. Some will be left standing in January and be forced to settle for one-year deals or eighth-inning roles that won't pay as well. However, with no way of knowing which relievers will come off the board first, I'm sticking to the formula of predicting the maximum dollars they can earn if they sign early in free agency.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.