Heyman On Crawford, Soriano, Werth, Mets
Teams are locking young stars up to long-term deals, so this year's free agent market looks less impressive than it could have. The result, according to one AL executive who spoke to Jon Heyman of SI.com, is a “thin class” behind Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth, Adrian Beltre and Adam Dunn. Heyman polled two agents and an executive on the earning potential of a number of free agents. Here are some results, plus other noteworthy rumors.
- The executive and one agent predicted Carl Crawford will sign for $120MM over seven years.
- One agent predicted that Derrek Lee would sign for $24MM over two years. The others predicted a one-year deal worth $4-6MM. Lee’s recent struggles and history as a middle-of-the-order hitter make him hard to project.
- Agent Scott Boras called Rafael Soriano, who is not his client, “one of the top closers in the game.”
- Boras continued to link Jayson Werth to Matt Holliday, who signed for $120MM, rather than Jason Bay, who signed for $66MM. "Why not compare [Werth] to Holliday? He's had a platform year like Holliday, and he's a better defender than Holliday,'' Boras said.
- The Mets won't reach out to Pat Gillick if and when they look to replace GM Omar Minaya. Gillick once said he wouldn’t work for chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon, who has a reputation as a difficult boss.
Postseason Success Won’t Affect Rays’ 2011 Payroll
Stuart Sternberg, the Rays' principal owner, announced before the season began that the team's payroll may end up below $60MM in 2011. Seven months later, nothing has changed. Sternberg tells Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times that even if the Rays make a deep run in the postseason, the club's payroll will be significantly reduced next season.
"No question. Nothing can change that,'' Sternberg said. "Unfortunately there's nothing that can happen between now and April that can change that unless Joe Maddon hits the lottery and wants to donate it, or I hit the lottery."
If the Rays were to play in two or three playoff series, the handful of extra home games would earn the team some additional revenue. According to Sternberg though, the Rays still "can't come close" to turning a profit for 2010. With key contributors like Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, and Carlos Pena facing free agency, Tampa Bay's roster will likely look very different by Opening Day 2011.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Rafael Soriano
According to David Ortiz, Rafael Soriano deserves to be signed to a five-year contract this winter. While Soriano is enjoying a fantastic season for the Tampa Bay Rays, he probably shouldn't hold out hope for a B.J. Ryan-esque deal. That doesn't mean, however, that Soriano won't be one of the most interesting free agents on the market this winter.
A year ago, Soriano unexpectedly accepted an arbitration offer from the Braves, since he and his agent were worried the right-hander's Type A designation would make teams reluctant to give up two draft picks to sign him. The Braves, who added Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito to their bullpen, had no room in their budget for Soriano and dealt him to the Rays. This year, Soriano is in a similar situation; not only is he projected to be a Type A again, but his 91.232 Elias score currently ranks him ahead of every major free agent, including Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, and Jayson Werth.
Of course, barring a late-season collapse, Soriano will be coming off a campaign even more impressive than his 2009. His strikeout rate has dipped a little, but his ERA (1.82) and WHIP (0.79) have improved significantly, and those 43 saves won't hurt his stock either. The 30-year-old seems more likely to turn down arbitration and pursue a multi-year deal this time around, which puts Tampa Bay in a win-win situation. If Soriano accepts arbitration, he would be a valuable trade chip for the cost-cutting Rays. If the righty turns down arbitration, the Rays could be looking at not only a sandwich pick, but a first round selection as well, given his Elias ranking. If a club with an unprotected first round pick signed both Soriano and Victor Martinez, for instance, that team would be sending their first rounder to the Rays, rather than the Red Sox.
Last winter, Fernando Rodney and Jose Valverde signed two-year guarantees worth $11.5MM and $14MM respectively. Rodney earned his contract in part due to a gaudy save total (37), while Valverde earned his due to impressive ratios (2.33 ERA, 9.3 K/9). Not only has Soriano bested Rodney's save count and many of Valverde's peripherals this year, but he'll also be younger than either right-hander was when they signed their deals.
So what sort of contract could Soriano command this winter? Even if his multiple elbow surgeries make some suitors wary, Soriano's consecutive healthy, effective seasons should earn him a lucrative multi-year pact. The 30-year-old should at least receive a two-year offer worth $18MM or so, and he could end up doing even better than that. Especially if Ortiz lands a general manager job.
Poll: The AL East
Last Saturday we took a look at the race in the NL West, but let's change leagues and coasts today to look at the battle for the AL East crown.
The Yankees have more or less led the division since mid-June (with a few exceptions here and there), though the Rays have closed the gap this month and the two teams are now separated by just half-a-game. In fact, they've alternated that half-game lead for six days now. The Yanks have been done in by a stretch in which they've won just three of their last 11 games, though Tampa has gone 5-6 during that span and hasn't fully taken advantage.
Of course winning the AL East isn't crucial to either team's playoff hopes. Barring a spectacular collapse, both the Yanks and Rays will make the playoffs thanks to the Wild Card. The Twins are just one game back for the best record in baseball, so winning the East no longer guarantees home field advantage through the AL playoffs like we've assumed basically all season. A division title would be more about bragging rights than anything else.
The Red Sox are seven games out in AL East and are playing spoiler more than anything, but they do have six games left against New York and stranger things have happened. If nothing else, they could make things a little stressful for the teams up top over the next two-plus weeks.
Who will win the AL East?
Click here to vote in the poll, and here to view the results.
Gammons On Martinez, Red Sox Bullpen, Crawford
Peter Gammons of the MLB Network and NESN made his weekly appearance on WEEI's The Big Show earlier today, and DJ Bean has the transcript. Let's round up the good stuff…
- Gammons thinks the Victor Martinez situation could get dragged out all winter because the Red Sox do not want to sign him for four years as a catcher. That's the logic behind their two-year offer, they view him as a first baseman/designated hitter after the first two seasons and don't want to pay a premium for a guy playing a non-premium position.
- The Manny Delcarmen trade was the first step in recreating the bullpen. Gammons notes that Boston once landed Bronson Arroyo "for a dollar," and the club could try a similar approach with the pen this offseason. Basically, they'll just bring guys in and see what sticks rather than sign one player to a big contract. Matt Fox may have been claimed with that very idea in mind.
- Gammons doesn't believe the Red Sox can afford to sign Carl Crawford, who he thinks will get seven years and $140MM. There is also some concern about the lineup being too lefty-heavy in a division with several top-of-the-line lefthanded pitchers.
D’Backs Acquire Matt Gorgen From Rays
The Diamondbacks have acquired Matt Gorgen from the Rays, according to a team release. The move completes the July 31st trade that sent Chad Qualls to Tampa Bay, with Gorgen representing the player to be named later in the deal.
Gorgen, 23, acted as the closer for the Rays' Double-A affiliate in Montgomery this season. In 42 outings, he compiled a 1.65 ERA to go along with 8.6 K/9 and 22 saves.
Prior to the season, Baseball America ranked the right-hander as the 28th-best prospect in Tampa Bay's system, describing him as a "classic hard-charging reliever" who projects as a middle reliever or set-up man in the bigs. Baseball America's scouting report also noted that Gorgen needed to work on improving his pitch command before he'd be ready to take the next step toward the majors – he walked 3.9 batters per nine innings for Montgomery this year.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Carlos Pena
Although he has remained the starting first baseman for the second-best team in baseball, Carlos Pena hasn't enjoyed one of his more productive seasons. Flirting with the Mendoza Line for much of the year, Pena has hit .203/.331/.425 after posting a slash line of .252/.382/.553 over his first three seasons with the Rays. The decline in production couldn't come at a worse time for the 32-year-old; not only is he being relied upon by a World Series contender, but he also faces free agency this winter.
The season hasn't been a total disaster for Pena. Although UZR doesn't necessarily back it up, he's still regarded as a strong defensive first baseman. At the plate, his walk and home run rates have stayed in line with his career ratios, and a career-low .223 BABIP suggests that he's been a little unlucky. However, he's also hitting fewer line drives (14.7%) and more ground balls (45.3%) than he ever has in his time with Tampa. Given his uninspiring numbers and the fact that he's part of an overcrowded group of free agent first basemen, Pena won't have nearly the leverage this winter that he and agent Scott Boras would like.
Of course, Pena also isn't the only free-agent-to-be at first base who has seen his production slip this season. Lance Berkman and Derrek Lee have struggled as well, while Troy Glaus, Jorge Cantu, and Lyle Overbay have all suffered through horrid slumps that put a dent in their overall numbers. Players like Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko, Aubrey Huff and Adam LaRoche have positioned themselves well heading into free agency, but the falling stocks of Berkman and Lee should work in Pena's favor.
Pena's situation heading into the offseason is somewhat reminiscent of Adrian Beltre's a year ago. Another Boras client, Beltre was coming off a disappointing, injury-marred 2009 campaign that saw him post a .683 OPS in 477 plate appearances. Because of his defensive prowess and his past offensive production, Beltre was still presented with multi-year offers before eventually accepting a one-year, $10MM deal with the Red Sox. Beltre plays a more premium infield position and was part of a thinner third base market, so Pena may not receive the same kind of offers, but Boras could explore a similarly incentive-laden one-year contract. If the first baseman rebounds, like Beltre has, he may earn himself a bigger payday down the road.
Currently, Pena projects as a Type B free agent, which means signing him won't cost a draft pick. Even if he were a Type A, the Rays would be unlikely to offer arbitration; Pena is making $10.125MM this year and the team plans to reduce payroll in 2011, so they wouldn't want the first baseman to accept an arbitration offer. With no compensation picks attached to him on the open market, Pena could get a multi-year deal from a club like the Nationals, who reportedly "love" him. It wouldn't be a surprise, however, to see the Boras client sign a one-year contract with an eye on improving his stock for 2012.
Non-Tender Candidate: Willy Aybar
The Rays are a team built around versatility, and one of their most flexible pieces in recent years has been infielder Willy Aybar. The 27-year-old has spent the majority of his big league time at third base, but can also handle spot duty at first and second.
Aybar isn't a traditional non-tender candidate in that the decision is simply whether or not to offer him a contract for next season. The Rays signed him to a two-year deal worth $2.6MM guaranteed before 2009, and that deal includes $2.2MM club option for 2011 that can instead be bought out for $275K. Aybar still has two more years of arbitration eligibility left ahead of him, so Tampa could decline the option and then non-tender him for a total savings of $1.925M.
A bargain in 2008 and 2009, Aybar hit .253/.329/.413 with double digit homers in each of those two seasons while playing no fewer than three positions. This year's been a different story, however, as he's fallen off to .235/.309/.348 with just five homers while spending the most of his time as a designated hitter against lefthanded pitching despite hitting just .252/.299/.390 off southpaws. Aybar's strikeout rate has risen for the third straight year as well.
Tampa is facing a payroll reduction next season, so parting ways with the increasingly unproductive Aybar could be one way to cut costs. That said, it's time to vote. Click here to tell us if you think the Rays will non-tender Aybar after the season, and here to see the results.
Baldelli Plans To Continue Playing
In yesterday's game against the Orioles, Rocco Baldelli belted a two-run pinch hit homer in the seventh inning in his first big league swing of the season. Prior to signing a minor league deal with the Rays, Baldelli worked with the club as a special assistant. Now that he's back in the majors, he has no immediate plans to return to coaching, writes Ben Shpigel of the New York Times.
“I like playing; I don’t know what else I would do,” Baldelli said. “I have some ideas. What I did earlier this year was definitely pretty nice, but there’s nothing better than playing. Coming out here every day, it’s something that I’ve done the last ten years of my life and it’s not something I’m going to let go of easily," said the soon-to-be 29-year-old.
The right-handed hitter spent 2009 with Boston, posting a slash line of .253/.311/.433 in 164 plate appearances.
Odds & Ends: Nady, Orioles, Darvish, Zambrano
Links for Sunday, as the White Sox complete a weekend sweep in Boston….
- Xavier Nady has been doing quite well since the Cubs dealt Derrek Lee to the Braves, writes MLB.com's Carrie Muskat.
- Cal Ripken Jr. told Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun that recently-appointed O's manager Buck Showalter is one of the best baseball guys he has spoken to.
- Javier Lopez tells Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle that he's not too upset about falling just short of free agency heading into next year.
- There's a chance Rod Barajas remains a Dodger past this season, according to Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times.
- NPB Tracker, via Twitter, passes on a news item from Sponichi that says the Mets, Rangers, and Rays all watched Yu Darvish pitch this weekend.
- Toni Ginnetti of the Chicago Sun-Times wonders if Carlos Zambrano's impressive performance over the last month means the Cubs may not ditch him after all.
- What does the future hold for the Yankees' "Core Four"? Joel Sherman of the New York Post explores that question in his latest column.
- Tim Wallach's number one goal this winter is landing a major league managerial job, writes Kevin Baxter of the Los Angeles Times.
- Newsday's Ken Davidoff lists three "hot names" for potential general manager openings this offseason: Damon Oppenheimer, Kevin Towers, and Logan White.