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Dukes Trade Coming Soon?

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The Devil Rays have a new-look outfield, with Delmon Young in center, Jonny Gomes in right, and Elijah Dukes on the bench.  Gomes just homered today and could really take off as a 30 home run guy if he plays every day.

Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times hinted this morning that if Dukes didn’t start today, his departure may be imminent.  He didn’t, and Rocco Baldelli may be back by Friday.  Some sort of action with Dukes at that point seems likely, whether a release, demotion, or trade.  Jim Bowden’s recent "character is extremely important" comment to the Washington post seems to indicate he’s not interest in Dukes despite initial reports.

However, that comment may mean nothing.  Dmitri Young choked his 21 year-old girlfriend last year, and Bowden signed him.  Most likely Bowden just needs to sit with the player and feel convinced that he is reformed.

Dukes would still be a great fit for the Marlins, baseball-wise.  The Rays were said to be looking for a solid reliever in return for Dukes, but that was a few offenses ago. 

Rosenthal’s Latest

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The authority on all trade rumors, Ken Rosenthal has spoken.  Let’s review.

  • As we have heard before, the Dodgers like Adam Dunn.  We’ve also discussed the fact that there’s not a clear place to put him.  Whether you go with first base or left field, a veteran must move.  The Padres like Dunn as well but talks have yet to occur.  The Angels may have liked him in the past but they don’t seem likely at this point.  And the Twins?  They just won’t break the bank for him unfortunately.
  • With Michael Barrett having issues with 40% of the Cubs’ rotation, the Cubs could look to trade him.  Even though he’s a top offensive catcher, his impending free agency might prevent any strong return.  Plus, the Cubs would have to go with a Henry Blanco/Koyie Hill tandem.  A more likely scenario is that the Cubs will let Barrett walk after the season.
  • Finally some clarity on Eric Gagne’s limited no-trade protection.  Rosenthal reveals that he can veto trades to 12 teams.  The Phillies and Indians are again mentioned as suitors.  Rosenthal thinks Mark Teixeira could generate a lot of talk but no action at the trading deadline.  Kind of like Alfonso Soriano or A.J. Burnett before him.
  • The asking price for Brad Lidge, supposedly: a premium young catcher and promising young pitcher.  Lidge will probably earn $8MM next year before hitting free agency.  The Astros should be happy with a young catcher or a young pitcher, not both.  I’d mention Salty here but I think he is worth much more than Lidge.  Rosenthal says the Astros could move another bullpen arm like Wheeler or Qualls to get the bat they need. 
  • Could the Devil Rays simply retain Al Reyes and Carlos Pena?  Both players could be valuable contributors to the 2008 club.  I like the idea of keeping Reyes around for next year, but I think Pena has peaked.
  • Noah Lowry would get the attention of the Braves or Cardinals, but the Giants are unlikely to move him.
  • The Phils are likely to pass on Tomo Ohka despite their need for pitching.

Twins May Target Wigginton

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According to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the Twins may target Ty Wigginton of the Devil Rays as a third baseman and DH with some power.  Wigginton makes less than $3MM and offers right-handed pop.  The Twins are tenth in the league with a .393 SLG.  They’re even worse against southpaws, and Wigginton can definitely handle lefties.

Twins’ 3Bs have hit .236/.319/.336, and the team’s DHs have hit .256/.335/.365.  These areas should both be fairly easy deadline upgrades.  Minnesota is seven games out in the AL Central and 5.5 games out of the wild card.

Other potential cheap sources of DH power: Dmitri Young, Sammy Sosa, and Mike Sweeney.

Nationals After Elijah Dukes

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According to Ken Rosenthal, Jim Bowden and the Washington Nationals are attempting to trade for Devil Rays center fielder Elijah Dukes.  Rosenthal notes that Bowden has before extended opportunities with players with off-the-field problems, most recently Dmitri Young.

Dukes, who will turn 23 later this month, has an interesting line on the season.  He’s at .199/.321/.409 with ten home runs and thirty walks in 209 plate appearances.  It’s an odd way to arrive at a .730 OPS, but ultimately puts him pretty close to the average AL center fielder (.260/.332/.408).  Obviously once Dukes’ batting average catches up – and I think it will – his OBP will be quite solid. 

Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system shows comparables for Dukes like Rondell White, Jack Clark, Matt Holliday, Ellis Valentine, Vernon Wells, and Michael Cuddyer.  Current Nationals Alex Escobar, Austin Kearns, Ryan Langerhans, and Mike Restovich all make his top twenty as well.  I find that strange…maybe Bowden is collecting a certain type of player. 

Dukes of course carries ridiculous character and anger management issues as baggage.  The theory is that moving him away from Tampa Bay could calm him down. In the past, the Pirates and Marlins have expressed interest in Dukes.

Tigers Trade Rumors

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Jon Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press has the trade chatter surrounding the Tigers.

The first issue is the bullpen, which is having all sorts of problems. Joel Zumaya is out for three months after finger surgery, Fernando Rodney has been on the DL with biceps tendinitis, Jose Mesa predictably bombed, and Todd Jones has struggled recently.  Logically, the Tigers are scouring the trade market for relief pitching.  They still might sign Troy Percival.  The main competition there seems to be the Phillies.  Morosi also indicates that a trade could be worked out with the Rangers for Eric Gagne or Akinori Otsuka.  Peter Gammons confirms Gagne’s availability, and also mentions Al Reyes as a trade candidate.

Last December, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski showed interest in Renyel Pinto of the Marlins and C.J. Wilson and Ron Mahay of the Rangers.  That was back when the need was though to be a lefty specialist rather than just relievers in general.

One expendable player for the Tigers might be 29 year-old southpaw Mike Maroth.  The Tigers were offering him up in December but couldn’t find a deal.  Maroth had surgery a year ago to remove bone chips from his elbow, and was never right in ’06.  While he’s made all his starts this year, Maroth isn’t pitching like he did from 2003-05.  This year, his K rate is down even further, his control is off, and he’s allowed an unacceptable number of home runs (15 in 61 innings).  Morosi confirms Maroth’s availability via an NL exec.  The return of Kenny Rogers later this month may push him out of the rotation. 

Maroth makes $2.95MM this year and then will be eligible for arbitration afterwards.  He’ll become a free agent after the 2008 season.  He alone probably won’t bring a useful reliever, but could be part of a larger deal.   

Stark’s Latest

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Hey everybody, I’m back from my trip.  I hope you enjoyed the posts from Tom and Jeff in the meantime.  California was actually colder than Chicago is right now, go figure.

Jayson Stark had a new column up at ESPN.com yesterday; let’s dissect the trade rumors.

  • Stark quotes scouts doubting whether Miguel Tejada’s power will ever return.  Over the last year and a half or so, the Orioles had all sorts of young players they could’ve acquired for Tejada.  Names like Felix Pie, Rich Hill, Brandon McCarthy, Ryan Sweeney, Ervin Santana, Erick Aybar have surfaced before.  Tejada earns $12MM this year, $13MM in ’08, and another $13MM in ’09.  That doesn’t sound too bad but one more year of declining power might change my opinion.
  • Seems the D-Rays would like to trade Elijah Dukes for a solid reliever.  A few teams might bow out because of Dukes’ past, but in my experience most don’t care.  I could see a match with the Padres, as they will need a center fielder if Mike Cameron leaves.
  • Stark says the hottest free agent could be "30 year-old Chunichi Dragons center fielder Kosuke Fukudome, who will be an unrestricted free agent."  I have learned from Mike Plugh that Fukudome is best in right field, but might be able to get by in center.  Plugh thinks Fukudome will get $12-15MM annually for three or four seasons.  Will Carroll has connected the Red Sox to Fukudome, while Phil Rogers suggested the Cubs.  This is going to be one of the bigger stories of the winter, I think.

The Percival Chase

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My apologies to the loyal readers hoping for more posts this weekend – my wife and I are painting the condo.  Good times.

For those keeping score at home, here’s a summary of Troy Percival’s suitors.  He won’t be returning to the Angels, but plenty of other clubs want in.

Though interest hasn’t been confirmed, Devil Rays manager Joe Maddon thinks highly of Percival.  The Indians are another club where only speculation exists.  Let’s add the Cubs to that list; Phil Rogers notes the team’s interest in the 2004-05 offseason.  Back then, the Cubs wisely decided to open the season with LaTroy Hawkins at closer given Joe Borowski’s broken hand.  OK, maybe not so wisely. 

Last week, two teams publicly showed interest in the Tigers and Phillies.  Now we know the Marlins are "closely monitoring" Percival as well.  It wouldn’t be right to have a Marlin season go by without the club resurrecting a closer.

Speculated interest: Devil Rays, Indians, Cubs
Confirmed interest: Tigers, Phillies, Marlins
Not interested: Angels

Rosenthal’s Latest

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Ken Rosenthal posted a new article this afternoon.  A good read as usual, though not chock full of new rumors.

  • Rocco Baldelli remains the Devil Rays’ best trading chip; they hope to see the 25 year-old return and re-establish the trade value he had in 2006.  Many are already saying the Rays waited too long on Baldelli, but let’s see what they get for him before making that judgment.
  • Reggie Willits has hit his way into a starting job for the Angels.  Nice to see an Angel drawing walks 12% of the time.  That will enable Willits to remain effective after his batting average regresses.  Rosenthal says third base is the clear position for upgrade for the Angels.  Garrett Atkins is desired, and Rosenthal would consider Brandon Wood a reasonable bounty.  If I’m Dan O’Dowd, I’m making that deal.  Meanwhile, Bill Shaikin believes the Blue Jays would ask for Wood for Troy Glaus, but would settle for Ervin Santana and 1B/3B/DH Matt Brown.  Shaikin’s source says J.P. Ricciardi is not yet prepared to trade Glaus, however.
  • Rosenthal speculates that the Braves would like to add a big-time starter to get away from the current plan of "Hudson and Smoltz and pray for lightning bolts."  Sorry, that was the best weather rhyme I could come up with.  He mentions Rich Harden and Dontrelle Willis, accompanied by the obligatory Jarrod Saltalamacchia rumor.  Poor Salty.

Tampa Bay Connection For Percival

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Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times highlights a connection that could bring Troy Percival to Tampa Bay, should the Angels pass.  Topkin notes that Rays manager Joe Maddon, a former Angels bench coach, thinks very highly of Percy.   

Tampa Bay would definitely provide an opportunity for Percival to get some late-inning work.  Al Reyes won’t be giving up the closer role anytime soon; he’s been a godsend with a 1.37 ERA and 4.6 K/BB.  Juan Salas seemed a candidate to lock down the setup role, but he recently earned a 50 game steroid suspension.

It would seem wise for the Devil Rays to shop Reyes this July.  Some team might pony up an unreasonable bounty for the bullpen help.  Then again, Reyes does help Devil Rays fans maintain their sanity in the ninth inning.

Stark’s Latest

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Jayson Stark posted a new Rumblings and Grumblings column over at ESPN; it’s definitely worth a read.  A summary of his trade rumors:

  • GMs calling the Marlins have noticed that the team seems a little more open to trading Dontrelle Willis this year. Miguel Cabrera doesn’t appear to be under discussion.  If the Marlins are out of the race in mid-July and a team ponies up with three legimate young regulars, they might be able to pry him away.  The D’Backs or Dodgers could probably pull this off without damaging their current group too much.
  • Stark says the D-Rays are considering promoting both Evan Longoria and Reid Brignac before the trading deadline, filling out the left side of their infield.  Someone would have to be pushed out; maybe B.J. Upton to center, Akinori Iwamura to second, and Rocco Baldelli to another team.  Stark reminds us of past interest by the Red Sox.  And don’t forget all the interest from Atlanta in December.   
  • The Rich Harden trade rumors may just reflect frustration on Billy Beane’s part, and not actual availability.
  • Stark also debates whether the Rangers would still be on the hook for $21MM if Alex Rodriguez opts out and then the Yankees re-sign him.  Right now it’s an open question.
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