Looking Back At A Rare Trade Miss For The Rays
Why do teams even bother trading with the Rays? The club has built a reputation as one that wins every deal it makes, a legend that goes back to at least 2014, based on this classic Tweet. Whenever they swing a deal, there are inevitable comments with observers wondering why other clubs even bother getting involved with Tampa when they’re bound to get fleeced.
It’s understandable why that discourse exists as the Rays have shown a knack to turn unheralded players into stars. Looking at the current roster, we find players like Randy Arozarena, Yandy Díaz, Drew Rasmussen and others who seemed to completely alter their trajectory after moving to Tampa. It’s a testament to the organization that they seem to continually get the best out of their players, whether it’s ones they’ve traded for or those they originally drafted or signed.
It’s also what helps them repeatedly field competitive clubs despite rarely spending money. They’ve made the playoffs in eight of the past 15 seasons, including each of the past four, and seem well on their way to get back there again despite playing in the stacked AL East. In the last 20 years, they’ve only once spent enough to get out of the bottom five, per the figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
That being said, no club is perfect. They are run by human beings just like all the others and they make mistakes. Let’s take a look at a deal from December 2019 that looks like a whiff.
- Padres get outfielder Tommy Pham and infield prospect Jake Cronenworth
- Rays get outfielder Hunter Renfroe, infield prospect Xavier Edwards and a player to be named later, eventually revealed as infield prospect Esteban Quiroz
This deal has the vague feel of a classic Rays trade, as they often take quality players and flip them for others who are almost as good but cheaper and with more control. If they help the new player become just as good or better than the one they gave up, then it works out as a nice bit of business for a low-spending club.
There’s no doubt Pham was better than Renfroe at that time. In the three years leading up to the deal, he had hit 65 home runs and slashed .284/.381/.475 for a wRC+ of 133. Renfroe’s batting line was .231/.291/.486 for a wRC+ of 102. He actually hit significantly more homers than Pham with 85, but his 7.3% walk rate was well below Pham’s 12.5% clip. He also struck out 28.5% of the time compared to Pham’s 21.7% rate. The defensive edge was debatable, as Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average preferred Renfroe while Ultimate Zone Rating gave the nod to Pham, though a lot of Pham’s work came in the more-demanding position of center field. Pham definitely provided more value on the basepaths, including stealing 65 bases to Renfroe’s 10. His 13.1 wins above replacement tally from FanGraphs in those three years was well ahead of Renfroe’s 4.3.
But turning to the financials, Pham had two years of remaining club control and was projected to make $8.6MM in 2020. Renfroe just qualified for arbitration as a Super Two player, meaning he had four years of control remaining and was projected for a $3.4MM salary. If the Rays could somehow coax some better plate discipline out of Renfroe, they could wind up with a fairly similar player for less money and more control.
Pham went on to struggle in 2020 but bounce back with a serviceable 2021 campaign. Renfroe, however, had a dismal season in 2020. He did make some slight improvements at the plate, walking at a 10.1% clip and striking out at a 26.6% rate, but he hit just .156/.252/.393 for a wRC+ of 78. His .141 batting average on balls in play certainly points to a lot of bad luck, and he’s been better since then, but the Rays decided to move on by designating him for assignment at season’s end.
There’s always risk in taking this path, assuming that the lesser player can simply be changed in a way that they replace the better player, but the Rays also had some insurance. They were getting a young prospect on the rise in Edwards. He was just the Padres’ #21 prospect coming into 2019, per Baseball America, but he hit .322/.375/.396 for a 121 wRC+ between Single-A and High-A that year. He only hit one home run, but he struck out at a tiny 9.6% rate and stole 34 bases. After the deal, BA ranked him the #85 prospect in the entire league.
Unfortunately, he never really developed any more power and the speed proved less game-changing as he moved up the minor league ladder. After the minor leagues were canceled in 2020, he went up to Double-A in 2021. He didn’t hit a single home run in 337 plate appearances over 79 games. His .302/.377/.368 batting line was still above average, translating to a wRC+ 113, but it was a bit of a drop from his breakout.
Last year, he got bumped to Triple-A and managed to hit five home runs in 400 trips to the plate, but the rest of the picture wasn’t as pretty. His 18.8% strikeout rate was still a bit below average, but it was much higher than any season before. His .246/.328/.350 line amounted to a wRC+ of 84 and he only stole seven bases in 11 tries over 93 games. This past offseason, with the Rays facing a roster crunch, they dealt Edwards and JT Chargois to the Marlins for prospects Marcus Johnson and Santiago Suarez. Johnson and Suarez were respectively ranked the club’s #25 and #17 prospects by BA coming into this year. Those youngsters mean the Rays could still salvage something from Edwards indirectly, but it’s surely not the outcome they envisioned when they initially brought him aboard. Neither Johnson nor Suarez has reached even High-A yet, so any forthcoming payday will have to wait.
The best saving grace of the deal from Tampa’s perspective right now is that the player to be named later, Quiroz, had a nice season in 2021 and was flipped to the Cubs for Harold Ramírez. This is more the classic Rays trade that we all know, where a somewhat flawed player seems to find their ceiling in Tampa. Ramírez had cracked BA’s top 100 list back in 2016 while with the Pirates, but later bounced around to Toronto, Miami and Cleveland. By the end of 2021, he had received 818 major league plate appearances but had hit .271/.308/.405 for a wRC+ of 91. For a guy with little speed and subpar defense, that wasn’t terribly exciting.
Cleveland designated Ramírez for assignment after 2021 and then flipped him to the Cubs for cash. At the end of March, the Cubs sent him to the Rays for Quiroz, seeming to indicate he wouldn’t make the team out of spring. Since he was out of options, they couldn’t send him down and at least got Quiroz out of it. The Rays would have to keep Ramírez on the active roster as well, though that hasn’t been a problem as he has mashed since the deal. In 139 games as a Ray, he’s hit .308/.353/.442 for a wRC+ of 132. He still doesn’t walk much and his defense is still subpar, but he’s hard to strike out and hits the ball hard. The Rays can control him through 2025.
From the Padres’ point of view, Pham was just okay in his two seasons there but the real coup was getting Cronenworth. A seventh round draft pick, he was never at the top of any prospect lists while in the minors. He was ranked #18 in the Rays’ system by BA in 2018 and then #15 in the Padres’ system in 2020 after the deal. He then cracked the Opening Day roster in the shortened season, striking out in just 15.6% of his plate appearances that year while hitting .285/.354/.477 for a wRC+ of 126. He hasn’t quite maintained that pace but has continued to be above average, with his career batting line now at .254/.336/.433, translating to a 114 wRC+.
He’s also provided tremendous defensive versatility, bouncing around the infield as needed. He’s mostly played second base but has also spent time at third and shortstop. When the Friars signed Xander Bogaerts to take over at short, they seemed to have little hesitation about moving Ha-Seong Kim to second and Cronenworth over to first. His DRS numbers at short are subpar, but he’s considered average or better at the other spots, while UZR and OAA think he’s average or better everywhere. The club is so enamored with him that they signed him to a seven-year, $80MM extension in the offseason.
In the end, the deal wasn’t a total loss for the Rays, since they were able to flip one of the pieces to get a solid player in Ramírez. But it shows that MLB decision makers don’t necessarily need to block phone calls coming from Tampa. You could get someone like Cronenworth or perhaps Nathaniel Lowe or maybe Willy Adames or even Blake Snell or how about José Alvarado or someone like Joe Ryan?
Rays To Designate Heath Hembree, Select Zack Burdi
The Rays have designated right-handed reliever Heath Hembree for assignment and selected the contract of fellow righty reliever Zack Burdi from Triple-A Durham in his place, reports Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link).
Hembree’s stint with the Rays will last just one day, though it was a good one. He pitched 1 1/3 innings of scoreless relief yesterday, yielding a walk but punching out two hitters in the process. The Rays are habitually aggressive with turnover at the back of their roster, however, and they’ll jettison the veteran Hembree from the roster in order to get a fresh arm into the ‘pen on a day where they’ll likely lean heavily on their relief corps. Tampa Bay is set to give righty Calvin Faucher his third start of the year today, but they’re in the process of stretching him out at the Major League level. He’s yet to complete three innings in an appearance this season and hasn’t topped 46 pitches.
The 34-year-old Hembree was a fixture in the Boston bullpen from 2015-20 but has struggled since being traded to the Phillies in 2020. From 2020-22, he pitched to a 6.64 ERA, maintaining a strong 27.3% strikeout rate but yielding far too many walks (11.1%) and home runs (2.45 HR/9). The Rays will have a week to trade Hembree, attempt to pass him through outright waivers, or release him. He has enough service to reject an outright assignment to the minors.
Burdi, 28, is a former first-round pick whose career has been derailed by injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery in 2018 and a torn patellar tendon in 2019. The former Louisville standout has been tagged for 15 earned runs in just 17 1/3 Major League frames.
Burdi has had more success in the minors but still has a spotty track record in Triple-A, where he carries a 4.81 ERA in 86 innings of work. He’s fanned 32.5% of his opponents at the top minor league level, thanks in part to a blistering fastball, but Burdi has also issued walks at an untenable 13.5% clip. That includes seven walks (one intentional) in just eight innings this year, during which he’s been charged with six earned runs.
Rays Select Heath Hembree
The Rays made a series of roster moves today, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Right-hander Taj Bradley and infielder Vidal Bruján have been optioned to the minors, making room for outfielder Jose Siri to be activated from the injured list and right-hander Heath Hembree to have his contract selected. A spot for Hembree on the 40-man was already opened when the club designated righty Hector Perez for assignment on the weekend. Topkin adds that Perez has now cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Durham.
Hembree, 34, has appeared in the past 10 MLB seasons and will make it 11 in a row as soon as he gets into a game. He had many good seasons for the Red Sox earlier in his career, racking up double-digit holds in 2017 and 2018, but he’s gone into journeyman mode more recently. Since the start of the 2020 season, he’s suited up for the Red Sox, Phillies, Mets, Reds, Pirates and Dodgers. He registered a 6.64 ERA over those three seasons with an 11.1% walk rate but also struck out 27.3% of batters faced.
The Rays took a flier on him by signing him to a minor league deal in the offseason. He’s made eight appearances for the Bulls so far this year with a 1.29 ERA, though a 90.9% strand rate has surely helped him keep that down. He’s struck out 25% of batters faced thus far but walked 15.6%. He hasn’t been at his best over the past few years but the Rays have a knack for getting pitchers into peak form and will try to do that with Hembree.
The optioning of Bradley comes as a bit of a surprise because he’s been pitching well, registering a 3.52 ERA through three starts. Topkin and Kristie Ackert report that the move is more about transitioning him to the traditional five-day rotation of the majors, as he had previously been working on a six-day routine and the club didn’t want him to make the adjustment in the big leagues. Without Bradley, the Rays are down to a three-man rotation of Shane McClanahan, Zach Eflin and Drew Rasmussen. They are generally not afraid to do bullpen games, including multi-inning pitchers like Josh Fleming or Yonny Chirinos, though those guys could also make some traditional starts as well. Bradley will likely be back later in the season, once he’s properly made the workload switch.
Perez was selected to the roster on the weekend but designated for assignment a day later without getting into a game. That means his big league résumé still consists of just one game with the Blue Jays in 2020. Since he has a previous career outright, he had the right to reject another such move and elect free agency, but it seems he’ll stick with the Bulls and try to work his way back to the majors.
Rays Activate Zach Eflin, DFA Hector Perez
According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the Rays have activated right-hander Zach Eflin from the 15-day IL to start this afternoon’s game against the White Sox. In a corresponding move, the club has designated right-hander Hector Perez for assignment.
Eflin’s return will help fortify a Rays rotation currently wracked with injuries. In addition to Tyler Glasnow having yet to make his debut this season thanks to an oblique strain, breakout left-hander Jeffrey Springs saw his season end last week when it was announced he is set to undergo Tommy John surgery. Eflin, who signed a three-year, $40MM deal to join the Rays over the offseason, had a 3.27 ERA and 2.63 FIP in two starts before being placed on the 15-day injured list due to back tightness. The ailment clearly proved to be minor, as Eflin is returning after a backdated minimum stay on the IL.
That’s good news for the Rays, who now have another reliable arm in the rotation alongside Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and prospect Taj Bradley. With Bradley and Rasmussen set to pitch the next two days, the Rays will need another starter on Wednesday, though it’s possible they could turn to a bullpen game led by lefty Josh Fleming, who opened the season in the rotation but has since been bumped to the bullpen after struggling in his first start of the season.
As for Perez, the 26-year-old right-hander was selected just yesterday and did not end up making an appearance during his stint on the roster. Perez has made just one appearance in his big league career, a 1 2/3 inning outing with the Blue Jays in 2020 during which he surrendered two runs on three hits and three walks. Perez has long struggled with his control, as evidenced by his career 14.4% walk rate. Those control problems have likely contributed to his struggles to return to a major league mound over the past three seasons. The Rays will now have seven days to trade, waive, or release Perez.
Rays Select Hector Perez
Prior to today’s extra-innings victory over the White Sox, the Rays selected the contract of right-hander Hector Perez from Triple-A. To create space on the 26-man and 40-man rosters, respectively, the Rays optioned righty Cooper Criswell to Triple-A, and moved Jeffrey Springs to the 60-day injured list. (Springs will miss the rest of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.)
Perez didn’t pitch in today’s game, so he is still waiting for his second career MLB appearance. The 26-year-old’s resume in the Show consists of one game and 1 2/3 innings of work with the Blue Jays in 2020, and Perez was charged with two earned runs in his lone outing. Originally an international signing for the Astros in 2014, Perez was part of the trade package Houston sent to Toronto for Roberto Osuna at the 2018 trade deadline, and the Jays then dealt Perez to the Reds during the 2020-21 offseason.
After joining the Orioles a free agent last season, Perez then made his way to Tampa Bay via the minor league version of the 2022 Rule 5 Draft. Perez has only a 7.71 ERA over seven innings with Triple-A Durham this season, but a lot of the damage came in one particularly poor outing, as the right-hander allowed four runs in one inning to Syracuse on April 18 (his last time on the mound). Perez does have a whopping 37.1% strikeout rate, whiffing 13 of his 35 batters faced.
Perez has always been pretty good at missing bats during his minor league career, but a lack of control has been a persistent issue. Walks have been a factor in Perez’s lack of results in the upper minors (4.53 ERA in 204 2/3 Double-A innings, 8.15 ERA in 17 2/3 Triple-A innings), but his walk rate was down to a more palatable 8.6% in the small sample of his 2023 work. Perez is out of minor league options, so unless he sticks in Tampa’s bullpen, the Rays would have to designate him for assignment and expose him for waivers in order to try and sneak Perez back to the farm system.
Rays Notes: Ballpark, Eflin, Siri, Thompson, Glasnow
The Rays “seem to be making progress” on a new ballpark, principal owner Stuart Sternberg told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. While the organization has still been talking with Tampa officials about the possibility of building a long-awaited new stadium in that city, Sternberg said “we’ve been focused on” remaining in St. Petersburg, and a proposed plan that would see the Rays’ new home built near the current site of Tropicana Field.
The stadium would be the centerpiece of a major redevelopment project similar to other recent “ballpark villages” in Atlanta and St. Louis, as the Rays’ new yard would be surrounded by new housing, shopping centers, restaurants, and entertainment venues. Nothing has been finalized about either the ballpark project or the larger revitalization project, as Sternberg said “We’re working at both and neither one is easy….The county and the city are really working beautifully together, so that’s part of the reason why we’re all optimistic.”
While the Rays’ lease at Tropicana Field runs through the 2027 season, there has long been a push from ownership to figure out a new ballpark situation sooner rather than later, with the Rays at one point even exploring an idea to split their home schedule between Tampa and Montreal (in new ballparks in both cities). However, it does now appear that at least some momentum seems to be building towards the Rays staying in St. Pete, which must count as some relief to fans after years of speculation about a possible move.
With the Athletics now on the verge of officially moving from Oakland to Las Vegas, Sternberg commented on the situation, saying that “It’s in all of baseball’s interests to have the A’s and any baseball team on the firmest footing possible.” By this same logic, Sternberg supported commissioner Rob Manfred’s decision to waive a relocation fee, noting that to help a team regain stability, it doesn’t fit for the league “to say ‘Look, we’re going to let you move and your revenues are going to go up but we’re going to take them all from you.’ ”
In some Rays news on the field, the team will get some reinforcements back from the injured list starting tomorrow, when Zach Eflin will activated to start Sunday’s game against the White Sox. Eflin’s placement on the 15-day IL was retroactive to April 8, but since his bout of back tightness proved to be minor, he’ll be able to return on the first day of eligibility. After signing a three-year, $40MM free agent deal with Tampa Bay during the offseason, Eflin looked sharp in his first two starts with his new club, posting a 3.27 ERA with 12 strikeouts and one walk over 11 innings.
Jose Siri was also off to an impressive start before beginning an IL stint on April 8, as a hamstring strain put the center fielder on the sidelines. Manager Kevin Cash told reporters (including Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times) that Siri will be re-evaluated following a two-game minor league rehab assignment. Siri played the first of those two games yesterday as a DH with Triple-A Durham, and he’ll take today off before playing center field for Durham in Sunday’s contest.
If all goes well, Siri might be activated as early as Monday, when the Rays begin a series against Houston. By coincidence, the Astros were also the team who dealt Siri to Tampa last year at the trade deadline, and after showing his mettle as a defender, Siri has now started to break out at the plate. He hit .318/.333/.682 with two home runs in his first 24 plate appearances before suffering his hamstring strain.
Ryan Thompson also looks to be facing a “very minimal” IL stint, Cash said, which could mean the reliever might return from the 15-day injured list on April 28, when first eligible. Thompson suffered a right lat strain after posting a 3.18 ERA over his first 5 2/3 innings of work out of Tampa’s bullpen.
The timeline isn’t as clear for Tyler Glasnow, who was given an initial window of 6-to-8 weeks when he first suffered his Grade 2 oblique strain at the end of February. Cash said Glasnow was slated for two innings of live batting practice in extended Spring Training work on Monday, which comes on the heels of a pair of bullpen sessions earlier this month. The Rays are aiming for Glasnow to be ready by around the middle of May, once he is fully ramped up after missing such a big chunk of Spring Training work.
AL East Notes: Faucher, Bader, Orioles
The Rays have been dealing with various injuries to their rotation this season, forcing them to do a bit of improvising. Tyler Glasnow has been dealing with an oblique strain and has yet to make his season debut. Zach Eflin was placed on the injured list last week due to back tightness and it was reported this week that Jeffrey Springs is expected to require Tommy John surgery. Those injuries have led to prospect Taj Bradley coming up to join the rotation and now right-hander Calvin Faucher will move in from the bullpen. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Faucher will start tomorrow’s game, with the plan being to stretch him out to four innings.
Faucher, 27, was a Twins draftee who came over to the Rays alongside Nelson Cruz in the deal that sent Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman to Minnesota. Faucher didn’t make any starts while a Twins’ prospect but has made a few since switching teams, though they’ve all been of the “opener” variety, none of them longer than three innings. He has 30 major league innings under his belt at this point between last year and this one, registering a 5.10 ERA with a 19.6% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and 41.2% ground ball rate.
It’s not an especially impressive line, but the Rays have had success turning overlooked relievers into useful starters in recent years. Drew Rasmussen was once a first round draft talent but his stock faded due to injuries and he wound up in Milwaukee’s bullpen before the Rays acquired him and gave him a starting opportunity that he ran with. Springs was a 30th round pick with a middling résumé but broke out with the Rays. He parlayed his breakout last year into a four-year extension, though the aforementioned Tommy John has put a sour note on that story for now. Faucher has fared better in the minors, with a 2.98 ERA in 63 1/3 Triple-A innings.
Rasmussen, Bradley and Shane McClanahan have three rotation spots taken now, with Eflin likely to return this weekend to give them a fourth starter. The club is off today but won’t have another off-day until May 15th. They could continue using Faucher as a fifth starter if he fares well but could also use bullpen days with bulk guys like Josh Fleming and Yonny Chirinos to keep them going until Glasnow’s ready to return. He hasn’t started a rehab assignment yet but also hasn’t been placed on the 60-day IL, suggesting a return before the end of May is still on the table. If Faucher can turn into a useful piece for them in any capacity, it would help to somewhat salvage a rare trade dud from Tampa. Cruz struggled badly after the deal while Ryan has thrived since joining the Twins.
Some other notes from around the AL East…
- Yankees‘ manager Aaron Boone tells reporters, including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, that center fielder Harrison Bader should begin a rehab assignment tomorrow with the Double-A Somerset Patriots. Bader has been a Yankee since being acquired from the Cardinals last year but has been limited to just 14 regular season games and nine postseason games so far. He had plantar fasciitis at the time of the deal last year and then suffered an oblique strain in spring this year. An elite defensive outfielder, Bader should take over as the primary center fielder once healthy, though he’ll need some time to get his swing back after missing most of Spring Training. Most of the starts in center have gone to Aaron Judge so far, with Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Aaron Hicks also getting some. Bader’s return should allow Judge to return to a less-demanding corner spot. With Giancarlo Stanton likely out for the next six weeks, the third outfield job could be juggled between Hicks, Franchy Cordero, Willie Calhoun and Oswaldo Cabrera, though one of them may need to be cut from the roster somehow to make way for Bader.
- Orioles‘ manager Brandon Hyde told reporters, including Jake Rill of MLB.com, that righties Mychal Givens and Dillon Tate could begin minor league rehab assignments next week. Neither pitcher has made their season debut yet, as Tate has been dealing with a flexor strain and Givens a knee injury. Tate has a 3.97 ERA over 179 career innings with the O’s, striking out just 19.4% of batters faced but getting grounders at a 58.1% clip. Givens, meanwhile, has a 3.40 ERA in his career, getting grounders on just 37.9% of balls in play but striking out 28.4% of batters faced. Once healthy, they should give a boost to the Baltimore relief corps. Tate is making $1.5MM this year in his first arbitration season, with the club able to retain him via arb twice more. Givens signed with the club on a one-year deal, though there’s a $6MM mutual option for 2024. If he declines his end, there’s a $1MM buyout, whereas the buyout will be $2MM if he triggers it but the O’s decline.
Jeffrey Springs Expected To Have Tommy John Surgery
Rays left-hander Jeffrey Springs is expected to have Tommy John surgery, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. That will put an end to his 2023 campaign and cause him to miss the start of the 2024 season as well. Earlier today, the club had placed him on the 15-day injured list with right-hander Taj Bradley recalled to take his place on the roster.
The news comes as a devastating blow to what had previously been a feel-good story. Springs, 30, was a 30th round draft pick of the Rangers and didn’t draw a lot of fanfare as a prospect. He got to the big leagues with Texas in 2018 and 2019, but posted an uninspiring 4.90 ERA through his first 64 1/3 innings. He was traded to the Red Sox but then put up a 7.08 ERA in the shortened 2020 season.
A trade to the Rays seemed to turn things around for him. He made 43 appearances in 2021 with a 3.43 ERA, 35.2% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 34.3% ground ball rate. Last year, the club gradually stretched him out to a starter’s workload over the course of the season. He eventually posted a 2.46 ERA in 135 1/3 innings, striking out 26.2% of batters faced while walking just 5.6% and getting grounders on 40.9% of balls in play. The Rays believed in that breakout enough to give the southpaw a four-year extension with a $31MM guarantee and plenty of incentives.
He was looking to build off that breakout campaign and was off to a strong start here in 2023. He had already tossed 16 innings with a tiny 0.56 ERA, though that will now seemingly go down as the entirety of his work this year. Rehab from Tommy John surgery typically takes 14 months or longer, meaning Springs won’t be an option for the club until midway through 2024 at the earliest.
The Rays had started the season with a strong rotation, even though there were a few injuries of note. Shane Baz had his own Tommy John surgery late last year and will likely miss all of the 2023 season. Tyler Glasnow also suffered an oblique strain in the spring and has yet to make his season debut. But Springs, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Zach Eflin and Josh Fleming formed a solid front five, helping the Rays jump out to a 13-0 start and a current 14-3 record.
Now the club will have to navigate the rest of the season without Springs. Eflin is also on the injured list but is expected to be back this weekend after a minimum stay. Bradley made his MLB debut in a spot start for the club last week and will now seemingly get a longer audition to stick around.
Revisiting A Win-Win Trade Between The Brewers And Rays
It’s generally rare for a significant trade to happen in the first few months of a season. Teams have just finished a winter of assembling their rosters for the campaign and don’t give up and start selling so early. Some teams dealing with injuries might want upgrades, but it’s not the time of year to send out a top prospect just to patch a temporary hole in the lineup or rotation. Front offices these days seem to like to push whatever time limits they have, saving their moves until the last moments before the trade deadline, non-tender deadline or what have you.
But there are exceptions, including one prominent one that occurred just shy of two years ago. In May of 2021, the Rays sent shortstop Willy Adames and right-hander Trevor Richards to the Brewers in exchange for righties J.P. Feyereisen and Drew Rasmussen. The trade was rare not only because of the timing, but the significance. Three of the players involved were relief pitchers, but Adames was established as a solid everyday shortstop who still had three-plus years of control. Trades of such players are rare at any time and especially so at at that part of the season.
What’s also of note is that both teams were in contention. The Rays had made the postseason in the two previous years, going to the World Series in 2020. They were 27-19 when this deal was struck, just a game behind the Red Sox in the AL East. The Brewers had made the playoffs three straight years and were struggling a bit in early 2021, but their 21-23 record still had them in the mix, four games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central.
There were a few stars that aligned to make this happen. On the Rays’ end, they had a middle infield surplus that was inevitably going to lead to some kind of move. Wander Franco was the top prospect in the game and on a path to take that shortstop job from Adames. Franco was at High-A in 2019 but jumped to Triple-A in 2021 after the pandemic wiped out the minor leagues in between. At the time of the deal, Franco was hitting .283/.333/.533 for a wRC+ of 126. The Rays had other prospects of note, Taylor Walls and Vidal Bruján, in line for middle infield jobs. Walls actually got called up in the immediate aftermath of the Adames deal, but Franco was up a month later.
On the Brewers’ end, they were in a bit of a bind at shortstop. They had Orlando Arcia at the position for many years but decided it was time to move on. His defensive marks were okay but he had a career batting line of .244/.295/.366 at the end of 2020 for a wRC+ of 71. They opened the season by moving infielder Luis Urías to short, but that went sideways pretty quickly. He had already made nine errors in the first few weeks of the season and wasn’t hitting much either.
Those factors all contributed to bring this rare trade to fruition, which was since gone well for both clubs. Adames fortified the shortstop position immediately and has been a fixture there since. He was out to a slow start at the time of the trade, hitting .197/.254/.371 as a Ray, but he hit 20 home runs for the Brewers in the remainder of the 2021 campaign and produced a batting line of .285/.366/.521 in that time for a wRC+ of 136.
The Brewers ended up winning the division by finishing with a record of 95-67, five games up on the Cards. They just missed the playoffs last year, but that was no fault of Adames. He hit 31 home runs and slashed .238/.298/.458 for a wRC+ of 109. His speed and defense helped him tally 4.6 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, tying Corbin Burnes for the team lead. He’s still with the club this year and can be retained via arbitration for 2024.
As for Richards, he was only with the club for about six weeks, getting flipped to the Blue Jays in July alongside Bowden Francis, with first baseman Rowdy Tellez coming the other way. Tellez has also been a key contributor for the Brewers, tallying 35 home runs last year and hitting .219/.306/.461 for a wRC+ of 110. Though that was very similar production to Adames at the plate, he doesn’t provide nearly as much in terms of speed or defense, leading to lesser tally of 0.8 fWAR on the year.
From the Rays’ point of view, they got more than just a few relievers, as they almost immediately started stretching Rasmussen out into a larger workload. Three of his first five outings as a Ray were of the single-inning variety, but he ramped up as the campaign went along. He eventually made 10 starts on the year, including eight to finish the season. And these weren’t just as an opener in the Tampa style. Those eight starts to end the year were all at least four innings long, with Rasmussen completing five innings in five of them.
This was a surprising development as it seemed like Rasmussen’s starting days were over, mainly due to health concerns. He had required Tommy John surgery in college in 2016, but was still drafted by the Rays in the first round, 31st overall, in 2017. They didn’t end up signing him due to concerns over that elbow, so he returned to Oregon State but needed a second TJS in August of 2017.
Despite those two surgeries, the Brewers grabbed him in the sixth round of the 2018 draft. He returned to the mound in the minors the following year, pitching mostly as a starter but logging just 74 1/3 innings. In 2020, with the minor leagues wiped out by the pandemic, Rasmussen was pitching out of the bullpen with the big league club. He tossed 15 1/3 innings over 12 appearances, posting a lackluster 5.87 ERA. He continued in that relief role early in 2021, logging 17 innings over 15 appearances with the Brewers with a 4.24 ERA.
It seems the Rays hadn’t given up on the pitcher they liked so much that they used a first-round pick on just a few years prior. They nabbed him in the Adames deal and, as mentioned, stretched him out as the season wore on. With pitchers like Tyler Glasnow and Chris Archer on the injured list and alternatives like Michael Wacha, Josh Fleming and Ryan Yarbrough posting middling results, the rotation was in need of some help. Rasmussen eventually tossed 59 innings for Tampa that year over 10 starts and 10 relief appearances. He posted a 2.44 ERA, striking out 20.9% of batters faced, walking 5.7% and getting grounders at a 51.5% clip. The Rays finished 100-62 that year, eight games ahead of the Red Sox and Yankees for the division crown, though Boston would eliminate Tampa in the ALDS.
It would have been fair to wonder at that time if Rasmussen’s success with the Rays was sustainable. It was still a small sample and his total workload in the three years since his second Tommy John procedure was light, 177 innings between the majors and minors over the 2019-2021 period. But last year, he pushed those doubts aside, tossing 146 innings over 28 starts. His 2.84 ERA came with a 21.4% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 46.6% ground ball rate. He’s looked sharp through three starts here this year as well, currently sporting a 2.60 ERA with his strikeout rate up to 29.2% in the early going. He won’t reach arbitration until after this season and can be controlled for three more seasons beyond that.
Feyereisen was no slouch himself. He posted a 2.45 ERA for the Rays after the deal and then tossed 24 1/3 innings last year without allowing a single earned run. Unfortunately, he landed on the injured list in early June and wasn’t able to return, eventually undergoing shoulder surgery in December. The recovery from that procedure required a four-month shutdown period, which meant the club would be without him for the start of the 2023 campaign. He was still under club control through 2026, but the Rays were dealing with a roster crunch and designated Feyereisen for assignment shortly after that surgery, with a deal seemingly already in the works at that time. He was dealt to the Dodgers the next day in exchange for minor league lefty Jeff Belge, who posted a 3.66 ERA in High-A for the Dodgers last year. He’s started his Rays tenure with three scoreless outings in Double-A this year.
In the end, the Brewers shipped out some talented pitchers who weren’t the most essential arms on their roster. Even without Rasmussen and Feyereisen, they’ve still had excellent pitching from Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams and others. In exchange, they received an excellent everyday shortstop and, indirectly, a potent bat in Tellez. The Rays parted with that excellent shortstop, but replaced him easily from within and were able to bolster their rotation and overall pitching depth.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Checking In On The Rays’ Left-Handed Bats
Back in October, just after the Rays had been bounced from the postseason, president of baseball operations Erik Neander gave a press conference and outlined some goals for the offseason. One area targeted for improvement was the club’s performance against right-handed pitching. As a whole, the team hit .234/.305/.373 against righties, leading to a 99 wRC+ that indicates they were just a hair below average.
“I don’t think it’s in us to just stand pat and assume things will get better,” Neander said at that time. Cut to April and the club apparently decided that the standing pat thing wasn’t such a bad idea after all. They made no moves this offseason to add to their lineup. In fact, they subtracted from it, as players like Kevin Kiermaier, Ji Man Choi and Miles Mastrobuoni are now on different teams. Aside from signing Zach Eflin, all the club’s offseason additions were minor leaguers, with most of those being pitchers.
The MLB offseason was generally considered to be on the robust side, with many contracts going well beyond predictions, especially for the top free agents. It’s possible that the low-spending Rays simply got priced out of whatever plans they initially drew up for the winter. Whatever the reasons, the club didn’t bring in anyone from outside the organization and is relying on internal options, at least for now. The season is still young but the early results are encouraging, as the club is 14-2 and hitting a collective .276/.364/.544 against righties for a 155 wRC+ so far. Let’s dig in on the players individually.
In the first few years of his career, Lowe had established himself as one of the key members of the Tampa lineup. He hit 14 home runs in the shortened 2020 season and added 39 more the next year. Over those two seasons combined, he hit .253/.346/.532 for a wRC+ of 141.
Unfortunately, he was hobbled in the health department last year. He made trips to the injured list due to lower back issues and a triceps contusion. He only got into 65 games and produced a diminished .221/.308/.383 slash line when on the field for a 104 wRC+. Early indications suggest that Lowe has put those injuries behind him, as he is off to a great start. He has five home runs in his first 14 games and is currently batting .310/.442/.690 for a 215 wRC+.
Franco’s arc is fairly similar to Lowe’s. His track record in the majors isn’t as long, but he was considered the top prospect in the sport for quite a while and then performed well in 2021 while only 20 years old. But the switch-hitter was also snakebitten in 2022, making trips to the IL due to a quad strain and wrist discomfort. He only got into 83 games and hit .277/.328/.417 for a wRC+ of 116, still above average but not elite. But like Lowe, he seems to be healthy and in a good groove here this year. He already has four long balls and is batting .318/.366/.621 for a wRC+ of 176.
The switch-hitting Walls has always hit well in the minors but hasn’t been able to translate it to the majors. Coming into this year, his career batting line was .182/.281/.288. He’s off to a strong start here in 2023 though, batting .281/.378/.469 through 37 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 144.
Mejía isn’t off to the same blazing start as some of his teammates. The switch-hitting catcher is batting just .167/.276/.208 through his first 29 plate appearances. He and Christian Bethancourt have been splitting the catching duties fairly evenly so far, but the right-handed-hitting Bethancourt is performing much better at the plate and could increase his share as the season goes along.
Acquired from the Dodgers in a trade just prior to the 2022 season, Raley got into 22 games with the Rays last year but hit just .197/.306/.279. He’s still striking out at a 31% clip in 2023 but has hit three homers in just 13 games, leading to a .222/.310/.528 slash line and 131 wRC+.
Lowe has long been one of the club’s highly-touted prospects, having been selected 13th overall in 2016 and performing well in the minors. He got a two-game cameo in the big leagues in 2021 but struggled in his first meaningful taste of the majors. He hit .221/.284/.343 last year and struck out in 33.3% of his trips to the plate. He’s been far superior this season, cutting that strikeout rate in half to 16.7% and hitting three home runs in just 12 games. His current batting line of .359/.405/.718 amounts to a wRC+ 213.
Long one of the club’s most significant prospects, Bruján has struggled badly against major league pitching. He had a batting line of .150/.207/.231 over 62 games coming into this year. The club was granted a fourth option for him, allowing them to send him to the minors on Opening Day, but he was called up when Jose Siri landed on the injured list. Bruján is hitting .333/.333/.333 through 15 plate appearances but has six strikeouts (a 40% rate) in that tiny sample.
Aranda got to make his MLB debut last year but didn’t crack the Opening Day roster here in 2023. He’s off to a nice start in Triple-A, hitting a couple of home runs for the Durham Bulls and drawing walks in a massive 24% of his 50 plate appearances. His current batting line is .250/.440/.444 for a 136 wRC+.
Manzardo isn’t yet on the 40-man roster but is one of the club’s top prospects and is playing in Triple-A, meaning a debut at some point this year is on the table. He has three home runs and a 10.4% walk rate for the Bulls so far this year, leading to a .262/.333/.548 batting line and 115 wRC+ through 12 games.
Jones is on the 40-man roster but he’s in Double-A and therefore not likely to be at the front of the line for a call-up. He’s also not forcing the issue right now, hitting .167/.189/.417 through eight games for the Montgomery Biscuits.
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All of these numbers come with small sample warnings, as the Rays have only played 16 games thus far. Also, the strength of their competition has been fairly weak, as their 13-game winning streak to start the season came against the Tigers, Nationals, Athletics and Red Sox. When they finally faced a team that’s generally considered to be a contender by squaring off against the Blue Jays this past weekend, they went 1-2.
The fact that they demolished the pitching of rebuilding clubs like the Nats and A’s doesn’t mean that we can declare the situation resolved, but it’s encouraging nonetheless. Franco and Brandon Lowe aren’t likely to sustain these torrid streaks, but it’s a good sign that they are healthy and are making the 2022 struggles seem like temporary injury setbacks. Walls can’t suddenly be declared a superstar, but he’s considered a strong defender and any offense he can provide is a nice bonus. We also can’t say that Raley and Josh Lowe have cemented themselves as successful big league hitters, but they’ve shown tremendous promise in the minors and could be getting acclimated to big league pitching. Lowe’s much-improved strikeout rate is especially positive.
As the season goes along and the Rays face stronger competition, it’s entirely possible that this picture looks less glowing. However, the games all count the same and they already have 14 wins in the bank, which makes it highly likely they stay in contention up until the trade deadline. If they need to upgrade on any of the hitters in this group, they have a very strong farm system and should be able to bolster their left-handed options by making a deal or two. But if even one or two of these early developments start to seem more real, their urgency to do so will be lessened.