Dodgers Nearing Extension With Clayton Kershaw
2:37pm: The sides have discussed new contract that would add just one more guaranteed season, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It is believed that the total guarantee would stay under nine figures, though Rosenthal cautions the “final terms might be different.”
If that turns out to be the case, it seems the sides would be more or less adding another season at the same average annual value that Kershaw has been playing on under his prior extension. Of course, it’s also quite possible that there are other provisions under discussion.
1:30pm: The Dodgers and left-hander Clayton Kershaw are nearing an extension that’ll keep him in Los Angeles, reports Yahoo’s Jeff Passan (on Twitter). Passan notes that the deal is said to be “very close.” Kershaw had an opt-out clause that allowed him to forgo the remaining two years and $65MM on his contract and had until 4pm ET today to make a decision on that clause.
There’s been speculation for quite some time that rather than opt out of the contract, Kershaw would push for an additional couple of years to be added onto the contract. That, it seems, may very well come to be. Reports have indicated all along that the Dodgers hoped to keep the future Hall of Famer.
While Kershaw’s durability has come into question in recent seasons due to a string of back injuries, there was never reason to believe that he’d forgo the opt-out clause. It’s true that those back issues have sent him to the DL in three consecutive seasons, but he’s nonetheless remained among the game’s most talented arms when on the mound. Furthermore, Kershaw has averaged 25 starts and 162 innings per season over the past three years (191 innings per season when factoring in the playoffs), so it’s not as if he’s missed half a season on a regular basis.
The 30-year-old has notched a ridiculous 2.26 ERA since 2016, and although this past year’s 2.73 ERA wasn’t up to par for a player with his credentials, it’s nonetheless a brilliant mark that was accompanied by an even more impressive 155-to-29 K/BB ratio in 161 1/3 innings. If this “diminished” Kershaw is what the Dodgers can realistically expect for the foreseeable future, then they’d still be signing up for a top-tier arm to lead their rotation. It seems plausible that he might take a hit in terms of average annual value in exchange for tacking on another couple of seasons to the deal, but that’d be a worthwhile trade-off for locking in another two-plus seasons of guaranteed pay.
Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw Push Opt-Out Deadline To Friday Afternoon
Nov. 2: With the deadline now just over three hours away, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that both sides are “optimistic” about reaching a new agreement. As Rosenthal points out, an extension prior to 4pm ET isn’t required for Kershaw to remain in L.A. into 2019 and beyond. Even after what seems to be a surefire opt-out, he could continue negotiating with the Dodgers, although other teams would then formally be allowed to pursue Kershaw as well.
Oct. 31: The Dodgers announced tonight that they’ve agreed to push back the deadline on Clayton Kershaw‘s opt-out decision until Friday afternoon at 4pm ET. The original agreement in his contract was that he’d have three days after the end of the World Series, meaning a decision would have been due tonight. Kershaw has two years and $65MM remaining on his contract but has the right to opt out and enter the free-agent market.
There’s been persistent speculation that the two sides would simply reach an agreement to extend Kershaw’s current contract by a year or two, and it’s possible the extension of the deadline window was agreed upon with that very outcome in mind. Kershaw’s opt-out provision comes toward the end of what was at the time a record-setting seven-year, $210MM deal — the largest ever for a pitcher when he put pen to paper. (David Price has since topped that sum with a seven-year, $217MM deal.)
It’s long seemed logical that if an extension can’t be worked out, Kershaw would be able to earn more than that $65MM sum by opting out and testing free agency. While he’s spent time on the DL in each of the past three seasons, primarily due to back issues, he’s remained among the game’s most talented arms when healthy enough to take the field. And for all the talk about his durability since his initial back injury in 2016, Kershaw has averaged 25 starts and 162 innings per season (191 innings per season when factoring in the playoffs).
Kershaw, 30, has notched a ridiculous 2.26 ERA in that three-year stretch, and while he had a “down” season in 2018 by his Cooperstownian standards, he still pitched to a terrific 2.73 ERA with a sensational 155-to-29 K/BB ratio in 161 1/3 innings of work. Even a somewhat diminished Kershaw is among the most talented pitchers on the planet and would figure to command well in excess of $65MM in total on a free-agent contract. Perhaps that’d come with a lesser average annual value, but certainly in terms of overall contract value, his earning power outpaces the remainder of his contract.
Friday marks the formal end of the exclusive negotiating window that teams have with their own impending free agents. Even if Kershaw had opted out tonight, then, he would only have been able to further talk with the Dodgers for the next two days. Viewed through that lens, it’s somewhat natural to delay the deadline, as the only team he’d have been talking to for the next 48 hours is the Dodgers. Still, it’s easy to view this as a show of good faith from both sides that the two will eventually work something out.
Dodgers Will Make Qualifying Offer To Yasmani Grandal
The Dodgers are “definitely” issuing a $17.9MM qualifying offer to catcher Yasmani Grandal before today’s deadline to do so, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The team could also issue a QO to left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, though there’s still an internal debate whether to do so or simply let Ryu hit free agency without the potential for draft pick compensation.
The decision to issue Grandal a QO at that rate may come as a surprise for some, particularly in the wake of an ugly postseason effort that was underscored by uncharacteristic defensive miscues. But Grandal was one of the game’s most productive catchers with the bat this season, has long rated as an elite pitch framer (arguably the best and most consistent in baseball) and is consistently average or better in terms of controlling the running game. The switch-hitter will turn 30 next month and, even in spite of that ugly postseason showing, should have little trouble securing at least a three-year contract in an offseason where several contenders are in clear need of upgrades behind the plate.
It’d be a surprise to see Grandal accept the QO, though even if he does so, the Dodgers would likely be pleased to retain him on a one-year deal after he hit .241/.349/.466 with 24 home runs in 2018. Only Salvador Perez hit more home runs than Grandal among big league catchers, and only Wilson Ramos and J.T. Realmuto turned in a better all-around offensive performance when adjusting for league and park (by measure of wRC+). By that measure, the average catcher was 16 percent worse than a league-average hitter; Grandal, conversely, was 25 percent better than a league-average hitter.
That gap in production should lead to considerable interest on the open market. The Nationals, Rockies, Red Sox, Astros, Phillies, Braves, Brewers, Mets, Angels, Twins and Dodgers themselves are among the teams who could use help behind the plate next year.
As for Ryu, the decision likely boils down to the Dodgers’ tolerance for risk. The lefty was excellent when healthy this season, pitching to a masterful 1.97 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 in 82 1/3 innings. Ryu, however, missed three months with a significant groin tear and has made just 40 starts over the past four seasons combined. While his performance on a per-inning basis is undoubtedly worth that level of pay in today’s baseball climate, the Dodgers would face the risk that Ryu would accept the QO given concerns other teams would have about surrendering draft compensation and paying a premium for a pitcher with such pronounced durability issues.
Dodgers Re-Sign David Freese
9:07pm: The Dodgers officially announced the deal.
7:43pm: David Freese has agreed to return to the Dodgers on a one-year, $4.5MM deal, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). In total, Freese will receive $5MM, which includes a $500K buyout from the $6MM team option that the Dodgers declined, per Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times (Twitter link). In doing so, the Dodgers will save $1MM. Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted Thursday morning that there was momentum towards a deal between the two parties.
Freese, 35, slashed .385/.489/.641 in 19 games for the Dodgers after he was acquired from the Pirates in a late-August trade. Freese provides a valuable right-handed bat to come off the bench, in addition to a veteran clubhouse presence, where he will help fill the void left by Chase Utley‘s retirement. As they did several times in the postseason, the Dodgers may choose to play Freese in the starting lineup against a left-handed pitcher to maximize their platoon advantage; in 2018, Freese posted a .915 OPS against left-handed starters, compared to .672 against righty starters.
Including the postseason, Freese hit four home runs for the Dodgers down the stretch, proving his worth to a contending team. A known clutch performer, Freese’s bat was a critical part of the Dodgers’ World Series run, and he figures to play a pivotal role in the Dodgers’ quest to appear in the Fall Classic for a third consecutive year in 2019. Additionally, Freese has garnered a reputation as a contributor off the field as well, representing a key veteran leader in a clubhouse that will be without the 39-year-old Utley next season.
As they demonstrated in October, the Dodgers have no shortage of versatile hitters that can enter the game off the bench and play multiple positions. Freese slots into a group of position players that features moving parts all over the diamond, resulting in almost entirely different lineups depending on matchups. With Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez, Cody Bellinger, and others, the Dodgers enjoy the luxury of depth that is crucial in constructing a contender. Freese, for his part, adds to that depth: though he is limited to playing corner infield, he was a fixture in the middle of the Dodgers’ lineup when a lefty took the mound for the opponent. His proficiency against left-handers strengthens the Dodgers’ ability to vary their mix of position players over the course of a game.
By inking a new contract with Freese instead of exercising his club option, the Dodgers will save $1MM dollars on their 2019 payroll. Although it may not seem like much, the Dodgers will certainly welcome any extra flexibility they can gain as they approach a free agency class ripe with potential targets. After sneaking under the luxury tax last season, the club looks to be in position to spend substantially in the coming months, even with a current projected payroll of $185MM.
White Sox Acquire Manny Banuelos
The White Sox have acquired lefty Manny Banuelos from the Dodgers, per an announcement from the Chicago organization. He’ll go onto the 40-man roster, James Fegan of The Athletic adds on Twitter. Corner infielder Justin Yurchak is headed to Los Angeles in return.
Banuelos, 27, has long been considered a promising talent but has only briefly seen MLB time. He spent all of the 2018 campaign working at the Dodgers’ Triple-A club, where he split his time between the rotation and the bullpen.
All told, Banuelos threw 108 2/3 innings last year, carrying a 3.73 ERA with 10.5 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9. He could be an interesting candidate for a multi-inning role and figures to enter Spring Training with a chance at cracking the Chicago pen. The organization had to place him on the 40-man roster to keep him from minor-league free agency.
As for Yurchak, the 22-year-old scuffled through his second professional season, managing only a single home run in 363 plate appearances. But the 2017 12th-rounder did sport impeccable plate discipline numbers and showed better pop in the preceding campaign.
Dodgers, David Freese Push Option Deadline To Friday Afternoon
As they did with Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers announced that they have agreed to push back the deadline on their club option over third baseman David Freese until Friday afternoon at 4pm ET.
In Freese’s case, the team is weighing whether to pay him a $6MM salary or instead allow him to depart with a $500K buyout. Of course, the delayed decision could also be seen as an indication that the sides are discussing a different deal altogether. It’s conceivable they are contemplating a reduced salary and/or multiple seasons.
The 35-year-old Freese came to Los Angeles in a swap with the Pirates that was finalized just before the end-of-August deadline to add players with postseason roster eligibility. He only saw 47 regular season plate appearances with the Dodgers, plus another 26 in the postseason, but raked throughout and obviously left a good impression.
Freese ended the 2018 campaign with a .296/.359/.471 batting line in 312 plate appearances. That’s a level of output second only to his 2012 campaign, and likely doesn’t quite represent a reasonable expectation moving forward. Freese did carry a hefty .360 batting average on balls in play, though he has a .343 career mark in that metric.
On the other hand, the just-completed season was also the first time since 2012 that Freese has taken less than 400 plate appearances. Keeping him fresh and decreasing his exposure to right-handed pitching — against which he has been competent, but hardly exemplary, throughout his career (.265/.337/.397) — could make Freese a notable part-time weapon.
For the platoon-heavy Dodgers, it’s not hard to see how Freese could make ongoing sense. He could spell Justin Turner at third base, function as part of the rotation at first, serve as a potent bench bat, and build out the club’s overall depth.
NL Notes: Kershaw, Roberts, Cardinals
After a second straight year of coming tantalizingly close to winning his first ring, Clayton Kershaw has a decision looming. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets some of his conversation with Kershaw (Twitter links), who has until end of day Wednesday to decide whether to opt out of his current contract. Said Kershaw, “I know the future questions are obviously coming for myself…. I’ve got three days now to think about all of that stuff before anything happens. And so it will be an eventful three days for me, and I’ll try to figure it out.” MLBTR readers voted on Kershaw’s future here, but it’s up to him now, and he has until midnight ET Thursday morning to decide. Now, some coaching notes around the NL…
- Dave Roberts’ future resides in contract limbo as well, as his contract situation with the Dodgers remains unresolved, per the Athletic’s Pedro Moura. Roberts made some questionable tactical choices this postseason, mostly regarding bullpen use, but winning back-to-back pennants is no small feat, and it would be surprising to see the Dodgers move in a different direction so soon. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe notes that the Dodgers could simply pick up their $1.1MM option for 2019, but going into a lame duck season might not be the path either side is most interested in pursuing.
- The Cardinals have named Jeff Albert as their new hitting coach, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Albert started his coaching career in the Cardinals organization, but moved to the Houston Astros in 2013, spending four seasons from 2013-2017 as their minor-league hitting coordinator. Last season, Albert joined A.J. Hinch’s staff in Houston as an assistant hitting coach. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch adds that Triple-A manager Stubby Clapp will become the team’s new first base coach. Clapp received some consideration for managerial openings this October, but he’ll instead move to the big-league club in St. Louis.
Poll: Clayton Kershaw’s Future
With Los Angeles staring at a 3-1 deficit against Boston in the World Series, not only will the Dodgers’ season end if they lose Game 5 on Sunday, but it could also mark left-hander Clayton Kershaw‘s final outing with the club. The three-time National League Cy Young Award winner will take the ball hoping to keep the Dodgers’ season alive, but if the team loses, he’ll face questions about his future immediately after the game.
While Kershaw’s contract – the franchise-record seven-year, $215MM extension he signed in 2014 – includes another two guaranteed seasons and $65MM, it also features an opt-out clause he could trigger in the coming days. Should he take advantage of that, the 30-year-old would easily become the most accomplished pitcher without a deal for 2019.
However, in the event Kershaw reaches free agency, he would be doing so off three straight injury-shortened seasons, during which he averaged 162 innings per year. That’s a far cry from the 215-inning mean he established from 2010-15. This past regular season, Kershaw spun 161 1/3 frames of high-quality work, logging a 2.73 ERA/3.19 FIP, though there were some alarming signs along the way.
Although just about every starter would be thrilled with the production Kershaw has offered this year, his regular-season ERA was his highest since 2010, while he has only managed a worse FIP once (as a rookie in 2008). Moreover, Kershaw has battled through a decline in velocity, perhaps thanks in part to injuries. Kershaw went to the disabled list one time each for back problems – which have been a significant issue for him in recent seasons – and biceps tendinitis.
Even though we know Kershaw is in fact mortal, he’s still in position to forgo the remaining $65MM on his contract. Expectations are that Kershaw will indeed vacate what’s left of the pact, at which point it would be up to the Dodgers and the seven-time All-Star’s reps at Excel Sports Management to find common ground. For what it’s worth, both Kershaw and the Dodgers have publicly expressed a reverence for one another.
“[Kershaw] should be a Dodger for life,” owner Mark Walter said in March.
There’s certainly a chance that will come to fruition. But it’s worth keeping in mind that, in spite of their deep pockets, the Dodgers haven’t handed out a single nine-figure guarantee since president Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi took the reins in October 2014. They may need to fork over that rich of a contract to keep Kershaw in the fold. As great as Kershaw has been, and as iconic as he is, that would mean splurging on a 30-something pitcher with upward of 2,200 major league innings under his belt (playoffs included) and a growing injury history.
While Kershaw is currently focused on helping spur a World Series comeback for the Dodgers, it’s clear he’ll end up as one of the game’s most fascinating storylines after the Fall Classic concludes. Either Kershaw will continue his remarkable career with the only franchise he has ever known, or the the future Hall of Famer will stun the baseball world by leaving the Dodgers behind in free agency. What do you expect to happen?
Will Clayton Kershaw be a Dodger in 2019?
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Yes 67% (14,372)
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No 33% (6,958)
Total votes: 21,330
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dodgers Notes: Roberts, Urias, Ibanez, Ryu, Kershaw
Though Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts technically isn’t under contract for the 2019 season, the organization has a club option on him that could still be exercised. General manager Farhan Zaidi, though, indicated in a recent appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that a longer arrangement could be in the works (Twitter link, with audio). “As far as Dave goes, those conversations have been ongoing for the last couple months,” said Zaidi. “As the conversation’s going, certainly we would prefer to work out something longer-term than just picking up the option. All sides feel good about it. [We] haven’t been commenting too extensively, publicly, but obviously he’s done a tremendous job with this club.”
Roberts is a somewhat polarizing figure among Dodgers fans, as many are frustrated with the Dodgers’ matchup-driven lineup construction, among other critiques. The Dodgers, though, have landed in back-to-back World Series and won three consecutive division titles under Roberts.
Here’s more out of Los Angeles as the Dodgers gear up for Game 3 against the Red Sox…
- Though left-hander Julio Urias is thriving out of the bullpen for the Dodgers since returning from major shoulder surgery, Roberts told reporters that the 22-year-old’s future is still as a starter (Twitter link via Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times). Urias won’t necessarily be penciled into the Opening Day rotation, it seems, but Roberts made clear that Urias will work as a starter for the Dodgers “at some point next year.” The Dodgers will be cautious with Urias’ workload in 2019, which is likely why they’re not making definitive declarations about his timeline to rejoin the rotation at present. His return from anterior capsule repair has been nothing short of remarkable, as he’s pitched 11 1/3 innings between the regular season and the playoffs and yielded just two runs with 12 strikeouts and no walks allowed.
- Raul Ibanez, who is serving as a special assistant to Zaidi and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, turned down the opportunity to interview for managerial openings this offseason, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports in his weekly notes column. Ibanez has long been tabbed as a potential skipper, though apparently he’s content in his current role. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him emerge as a serious candidate in future offseasons, though. Heyman also speculates that a qualifying offer could be made to Hyun-Jin Ryu and touches on Clayton Kershaw‘s opt-out clause, noting that both Kershaw and the team hope to work something out. Kershaw is likely to opt out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his contract, though the Dodgers could try to put together an extension offer that’ll keep him Los Angeles for a longer period.
NL Notes: Cubs, McGwire, Nationals
By renovating the historic Fenway Park in 2002, Boston augmented their baseball ops department with the quickening revenue streams from an improved stadium experience – a strategy Theo Epstein brought with him to Chicago, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Additionally, both Fenway Park and Wrigley Field, under Epstein’s leadership, have benefited from in-stadium advertising along the outfield walls – much like your local little league field. In Boston, the seats added above the Green Monster came complete with the ad billboards above. In Chicago, the bleachers were devoid of ad content until 2010 when a 360-foot Toyota sign was installed over the left field bleachers. Baseball purists may balk at these eyesores becoming a focal point of such historic stadiums, but the financial welfare afforded both franchises by these towering facades have produced previously-unmatched eras of on-field success. Lest we forget, Wrigley Field was called Weeghman Park until it was acquired by the chewing gum tycoon, so while it’s not as obvious a money grab as southside rival Guaranteed Rate Field, the Cubs’ northside stadium has long been financially-inspired – Epstein’s major contribution is making these influxes of cash obvious on the field.
Now, some coaching updates around the National League…
- Mark McGwire won’t be returning as the Padres bench coach for 2019, per MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. McGwire is reportedly stepping down to spend more time with his family after two seasons as the bench coach in San Diego. Big Mac had previously spent three seasons apiece as hitting coach for the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers. For the Padres, they will seek to avoid an extended search to fill their three coaching vacancies for 2019 (bench coach, hitting coach, and infield coach).
- In other coaching news, the Washington Nationals will not be making any changes to their coaching staff prior to 2019, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. Manager Dave Martinez returns for the second year of a three-year deal, hoping for a turnaround after a disappointing first year in Washington. Bench coach Chip Hale, hitting coach Kevin Long, and pitching coach Derek Lilliquist will return to buttress Martinez in the Washington dugout. Rounding out the coaching crew: former infielder Tim Bogar returns to the first base coaching box, Greg Maddux’s former personal catcher Henry Blanco returns to coach in the bullpen and longtime third base coach Bob Henley returns in his usual role.