With Los Angeles staring at a 3-1 deficit against Boston in the World Series, not only will the Dodgers’ season end if they lose Game 5 on Sunday, but it could also mark left-hander Clayton Kershaw’s final outing with the club. The three-time National League Cy Young Award winner will take the ball hoping to keep the Dodgers’ season alive, but if the team loses, he’ll face questions about his future immediately after the game.
While Kershaw’s contract – the franchise-record seven-year, $215MM extension he signed in 2014 – includes another two guaranteed seasons and $65MM, it also features an opt-out clause he could trigger in the coming days. Should he take advantage of that, the 30-year-old would easily become the most accomplished pitcher without a deal for 2019.
However, in the event Kershaw reaches free agency, he would be doing so off three straight injury-shortened seasons, during which he averaged 162 innings per year. That’s a far cry from the 215-inning mean he established from 2010-15. This past regular season, Kershaw spun 161 1/3 frames of high-quality work, logging a 2.73 ERA/3.19 FIP, though there were some alarming signs along the way.
Although just about every starter would be thrilled with the production Kershaw has offered this year, his regular-season ERA was his highest since 2010, while he has only managed a worse FIP once (as a rookie in 2008). Moreover, Kershaw has battled through a decline in velocity, perhaps thanks in part to injuries. Kershaw went to the disabled list one time each for back problems – which have been a significant issue for him in recent seasons – and biceps tendinitis.
Even though we know Kershaw is in fact mortal, he’s still in position to forgo the remaining $65MM on his contract. Expectations are that Kershaw will indeed vacate what’s left of the pact, at which point it would be up to the Dodgers and the seven-time All-Star’s reps at Excel Sports Management to find common ground. For what it’s worth, both Kershaw and the Dodgers have publicly expressed a reverence for one another.
“[Kershaw] should be a Dodger for life,” owner Mark Walter said in March.
There’s certainly a chance that will come to fruition. But it’s worth keeping in mind that, in spite of their deep pockets, the Dodgers haven’t handed out a single nine-figure guarantee since president Andrew Friedman and general manager Farhan Zaidi took the reins in October 2014. They may need to fork over that rich of a contract to keep Kershaw in the fold. As great as Kershaw has been, and as iconic as he is, that would mean splurging on a 30-something pitcher with upward of 2,200 major league innings under his belt (playoffs included) and a growing injury history.
While Kershaw is currently focused on helping spur a World Series comeback for the Dodgers, it’s clear he’ll end up as one of the game’s most fascinating storylines after the Fall Classic concludes. Either Kershaw will continue his remarkable career with the only franchise he has ever known, or the the future Hall of Famer will stun the baseball world by leaving the Dodgers behind in free agency. What do you expect to happen?
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Voted yes. I don’t think there will be offers that the Dodgers wouldn’t be able to match
They’ll let him walk.
The Dodgers don’t have that option… its a player option for the next 2 years. No one would away from $65 million over the next 2 final years of their contract unless they were gauranteed at least a 5 year deal.
He’ll get at least $100 million from somebody, so he ain’t stayin’ for 65. I’d bet it’s A LOT more than 100 mil bc Arte Moreno is still alive and in control of his checkbook
No way he gets more. And why would he walk away from a guaranteed $32 million dollar 2-year contract commitment?????
He will absolutely get more than 65 million on the open market. The average annual value maybe less but he doesn’t want to be two years older and looking for a new contract. He’ll do it now and get a 120 million for six years something like that whatever. 100/5…
I get that Kershaw’s fastball is starting to lose velocity but there is no way he ends up with an AAV of 20/year when Zack Grienke’s AAV is 34.4 million. The guy can still pitch and even though it will probably end up being a bad contract for whoever ends up giving it, it’s not like there is a great free agent pitching class to contend with and a lot of teams have $$$ to spend.
Not saying Kershaw will leave, but with his back issues I suspect that any part of his decision based on money will have more to do with the total guarantee he’s able to secure than the total number of years.
Curseshaw is absolutely, 100% opting out. At his age two-years left on contract is not long enough.
He needs a brand new 5 year deal for big money. Absolutely. Maybe the Dodgers, maybe another team.
5/150. I believe someone will give it to him.
I dont think he will opt out. He probably will since I said that.
the only way he doesn’t opt out is if they reach an extension first. delusional to think he just accepts the current contract
Correct
He’ll “pray about it” and do whatever is “God’s will”, which will probably be signing with the team who offers him the most money — which will probably be the Dodgers.
Blasphemer, you’re sure to become a lightning rod.
While Kershaw has strong religious roots, he generally keeps that out of the public eye.
I get your agenda, but it’s poorly placed here. Good luck next time.
He doesn’t keep it out of the public eye so much as the public eye finds other stuff to look at.
haha, says you lol
Here here
and be smited…
He’d be an fool to leave.
A team would be a fool to overpay him.
Mark my words…..
7/210 back in LA
I just hope Arte Moreno has learned from his Pujols disaster and isn’t the fool to pay for yet another decline.
I know the poll is if he will sign but I wouldn’t touch this guy. His velocity is down and he has been hurt a lot lately. BUT someone will spend the money if he does opt out.
Giants fan but hats off to a class human being – Dodger for life – book it.
As a Giants fan I agree. He’s a class act. As much as I’d like him on our team I always appreciate a player that manages to stay with one team for their entire career.
Yep agreed as well! Hope he stays a 1 club man and becomes a legend. Seems like a good dude
Opting out is a huge risk! After his past 3 season why would anyone offer him more money? ESP if he loses tonight and prices come playoffs he isn’t the a lock in win and will command huge money per season. Huge risk reward to opt out. Stay in la and realize by not wanting more you give your team a better chance to add guys who can bring you a WS ring.
No it isn’t. There is talk of the Dodgers offering him an extension to forego the opt-out. If opting out were a risk they wouldn’t think of doing that. They would just tell “Go ahead, opt out.”
he may not get the same per year average, but if he can opt out and sign a 6 year 150 million contract with the Dodgers with another opt out after 3 or 4 years, why not?
His current contract is less than what Arrieta got. You really think no one would even want to give him Arrieta money??
How do you figure? He is owed $65 million over the next two seasons and Arrietta is only owed $45 million over the next two seasons. His current contract is NOT less than what Arrietta is earning over the same time period.
Overall guarenteed money…. Theres no way on earth a team wont be willing to guarantee him at least 100
Wonder if the Yankees will try to get him since they need all the pitching they can get.
Maybe even the Phillies since they have plenty of payroll left.
I hope not. The Yankees should stay away.
Corbin is a bigger waste. His ERA has been below 4 for only 2 full seasons. One in 2018, one in 2013. From 2014-2017, Corbin was either extremely ineffective or injured. Mark my words, the team that signs him will strongly regret it.
Corbin’s track record is not good I agree, but maybe he turned a corner? Kershaw has the best history of any pitcher of this era. I think he’d be the better choice as well to send a message to the RedSox as well.
Corbin is the next Ben sheets, just hasn’t been able to stay healthy. maybe a 3, 4 year deal for Corbin with a team that’s desperate for starting
What exactly is the message signing Kershaw would send to the Red Sox that just beat him twice in the Series giving up 9 ER in 11 IP? That the AL is better?
Pitching is impossible to predict, going into the playoffs the Astros had the unbeatable starting pitching not the Sox. The last few years teams have been winning using their starters in relief in the playoffs while all the talk was about relief pitching. The pitching is outleir.
I think the Dodgers and Kershaw probably share mutual feelings and will do what it takes to come to an agreement. What other team is a more perfect match? He has iconic stature in L.A.. I can see other teams possibly offering more money (stupid) but not enough for him to leave.
Please explain where I’m wrong. I want to learn. Downvoters never take the time to give any reasoning.
Seems likely to me that he’ll forego the opt out in exchange for a few more years on the end of the current deal.
As you say, he’s worth more than the 2/65 but I doubt he leaves the Dodgers
Back problems, DL stints and a K rate that weakened towards the end of this year. If I were CK, I’d stay put and collect that $65 million he is still owed. Besides, he may not get the big cheese he thinks he may get. Teams have been burned too many times in the past signing pitchers who are north of 30 to long term deals. But I’d rather have CK than Arrieta any day of the week.
By your reasoning, why do you think another team would offer more money if it’s a “perfect match” and he’s on the team with the highest payroll in MLB? If they lose him, the next highest-paid Dodgers in 2019 are Kemp and Rich Hill. Add to the fact that the owner has already said he wants to make Kershaw a Dodger for life. You’re not going to find a better bargain SP this free agent class.
It’s all about winning, the Dodgers might have missed their window. The AL seems to be much stronger, Sox, Astros, and Yanks.
He’ll opt out, then resign with the Dodgers….especially if they lose tonite (2-1 BOS as I speak), just firing Roberts (likely) won’t be enuf to satisfy the masses…..
Besides, at half-tilt, he’s better than a lot of starters out there, and LA’s got the money….
Why fire Roberts? He’s taken them to two WS. Sure, his faith in Madson is inexplicable, but that’s not something that costs him his job.
This one’s on the top dogs too, the medrics department failed the Dodgers in this series. Cora and the Sox out manueverd them.
Homerun first inning. Dodgers blow, fire roberts and let kershaw go.
no poll appears
Love Kershaw. If he retires today, he’s 1st ballot a Hall of Famer — no question, no debate. As a fan of baseball, it’s hard not to be a fan of Kershaw’s game. He had a chance to win 2017 Cy Young, until he got hurt, and was out for extended time. It was dead-set going to be him or Scherzer, wanted him to win 4th Cy, instead of Max. (Love Max too)
That said, he has 4.28 ERA in 145 career postseason innings. Dodgers’ owners have one of the deepest — if not deepest –pockets; ultimately, I believe they will re-sign him, and use his post season success (or lack thereof) as leverage for lower price. He already gave up 2-R HR against BOS; LAD is down 2-0 after 1st inning. 99% sure he re-signs.
Even if he opts-out, gets Greinke contract, Still LA matches
He opts out and the Cubs (who have the deepest pockets) sign him…
Cubs have the deepest pockets? I thought they were pretty strapped with all their acquisitions of late.
The Rickets family will match anyone when it comes to spending. Wrigley is a goldmine, and only gonna generate more money when the renovations are completed.
Even after Darvish… Heyward… young core need extensions soon.
Kershaw is HOF talent, but he comes with DL risk. Doubt Cubs roll dice on him, after Darvish debacle (And u know Im one of Darvishs biggest defender)
No just no.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say the Ref Sox win this series not because they are better. I don’t get the fire Roberts stuff. Not starting the left handed hitters in the first two games could be questioned…. he seems like a by the books skipper to me. Kershaw is for sure on the down hill and I hope he is a Dodger for life. Some guys just don’t fit other jerseys.
Red Sox win because they are the better team!
yea, what kinda reasoning is this guy using?
Try pulling out starters for relief that gives up lead. Starting darvish last year against houston when they could have started anyone else, dudes a bum.
Dude Dervish simply didn’t do his job neither the relief pitchers. It’s not like he’s lifting a guy dominating to bring in the 6th relief pitcher out the pen.
And even batting Kike Hernandez third?!!!!
3 rings and 2 Cy Youngs. I don’t care what they say, that’s a HOF worthy resume right there.
“I don’t care what they say” well what they’re gonna say is, no induction.
The second of Lincecum’s Cy Youngs could have just as well gone to the runner-up, whose name escapes me.
Wainwright got the same amount of 1st place votes as Lincecum in 2009 with 11, but Carpenter finished with a higher point total (less 1st place votes) and likely split the vote. What is interesting is that Lincecum did NOT have the lowest WHIP, ERA or most wins but he did have the most strikeouts (261 in 225 IP).
let Timmy smoke…
No link to the poll for app users…
I’m just frustrated with Roberts’ decision yesterday. Analytics were used but gut feelings should still count for something. Roberts leaves pitchers in way too long and takes them out in this case too early.
reports that a communication faux pas between Hill and Roberts
No, none such. They both spoke for themselves regarding that fake news. Read the news (or should I say printed opinions) on the Dodgers website.
Hill said that his remarks to Roberts were misinterpreted — communication faux pas. Roberts goes to mound to ask Hill how he is feeling but before he can say a word Hill hands the ball to Roberts and starts walking off mound — communication faux pas.
You just wanted an opportunity to say Fake News, eh?
If it makes you happy, sure.
My bad, I was referring to how the author mentioned incorrect reports surfacing about their conversation. (Hill and Roberts)
And if Hill gave up a homerun it would be “Roberts leaves him in too long”. At some point the players have to do their jobs.
I think he’ll opt out, and the Dodgers won’t be willing to give him what he wants. Could see him in Philadelphia…
I believe the structure of a deal may already be in place, but to give Kershaw the total dollars he will accept and reduce his AAV will require that he opt out of his current deal.
It’s tough to watch what Kershaw is going through in the postseason. For perspective about how badly bullpens have let him down – Kershaw has left 16 runners on base when being pulled from a game in the postseason, and relievers have then allowed 13 of those 16 runners to score.
That’s an 81% rate. The average rate for Kershaw’s career? 30%. The amount of runners being charged to Kershaw when a reliever is pitching, nearly triples in the postseason.
Interesting stat. I’d like to know if in general that number goes up for everyone in the postseason though.
The postseason average is 30% of inherited runners score. Fairly consistent with the regular season. Kershaw has been screwed by the Dodger bullpen for several years, especially of late. It’s not to say Kershaw isn’t responsible for those runners, but his team hasn’t been holding up their end of the deal.
He will opt out and come home to Texas and pitch for the rangers
Kershaw ain’t going anywhere….
But Dave Roberts will be.
There is NO WAY !!!! he opts out his contract …. NOBODY is going to give that kind of money to a rapidly declining pitcher !
Pitching gets paid. He’s not the CK of old, but he’s still a quality lefty.
No way he doesn’t opt out
I wouldn’t say no one. A couple teams wound pay up. I hope he stays a Dodger.
why would you turn down 65 mil for 2 years of throwing a baseball
Because you know you can get more? There is no way he can’t get at least 5/100m from someone. That would be the absolute floor.
Why take 5/100m when you already have 2/65 plus close to a $20 mil QO for year 3? If he throws well enough to earn that QO, that would lead to rejecting that for a possible 3/60 mil. That would be $25 mil more for the same years.
Even if he gets hurt or traded before that QO, he’d only need to find a way to get 3/35 mil to equal your 5/100. The risk reward of opting out just isn’t their.
It’s still more money. Players value security even if it means a lower AAV. I could easily see Kershaw taking $100M at a lower AAV than settling for $65M for fewer years. Though I think it would be more like 4 years, not 5, at that amount. If the back degrades, or other issues crop up, along with the decline in velocity, a QO is a no guarantee.
Did you just say “SETTLING for $65 million?”
Did you say it with a straight face?
It’s settling if it’s below market value, yeah.
I don’t understand why so many people freak out over player salaries when billionaire owners are making a hell of a lot more…
They also settle…
Yes he could get that offer. Or the best offer he gets might be 2/60. If last year’s offseason showed us anything, it’s that over 30 ball players should be carefully not to overestimate their value. Yes this guy is elite, but GMs are changing their philosophies on big contracts.
It could also just be that there were no elite players available last offseason, thus no elite contracts. Wait until we see what Machado, Harper, and possibly Kershaw get before declaring an anomaly a trend.
He opts out, and the rumors pour in that he will sign with the Giants or Dodgers, then signs with the diamondbacks and financially cripples them. oh, wait that was Grienke
I live the guy in all ways. Class act, has been maybe the best pitcher of all time. But he’s had back injuries, velocity is down and whether you like it or not, he has not come through in the same fashion during the post season. There’s enough data that you just can’t refute it. If he opts out, I let him walk. We have Buehler, Urias, Stripling and is resign Ryu if price is right. Spend the money on relievers.
That was love the guy….
I personally don’t think he’s even remotely the same pitcher he was a year + ago. His velocity is waaayy down as are his K’s. I might be wrong and he may have a Justin Verlander-esque rebound but based on what I’ve seen, even just in the WS, he can certainly still pitch — but he no longer looks like the perennial CY-Young award winning P he’s been in the past.
If I was a GM of a team I would stay away from signing him to a big $ long term contract. There’s just too much risk that he could continue to lose velocity and with it, effectiveness. Don’t get me wrong – I think he’s still a very good pitcher but he’s clearly not the same guy he used to be.
Ironically (based on tonight’s WS match-up) the situation kind of mirrors David Price’s … sure he’s still VERY good (most of the time) but he’s not $35M/year for 4 more years good. And I think the same will end up being said about Kershaw in a season or two…
4 runs tonight and two on base.
4 runs through 7 innings, no walks, 5 SO’s (7 hits)
Not his fault, Dodgers only scored 1 run for him.
In other words..HE CHOKED AGAIN!!!
And by again you mean for like, the third time….
Probably will only opt out just to get more confirmed years.
I think he’s worth a long deal still, but not at the current aav.
The prudent path for Dodgers is to not extend before he opts out. He’s a future hall of famer but at roughly 30MM AAV for maybe 5 years, be an unwise investment based upon sentimental and PR perspectives. If market comes down for him, go for it.
Manny Machado didn’t look like a 3/4 hundred million guy in this series.
He looked like a horse’s ass.
Love Kershaw and i am a huge dodger fan. But let’s be honest here. His skills have diminished to a point that doesn’t warrant a 30 to 335 mil a year pitcher. His velocity is reduced to such a point is he has to. Pitch differently to get hitters out. So if he is still demanding a 30 to 35 mil a year contract for another 4 or 5 years i can’t see that as a good value. Let him walk. We are going to be looking at a completely different pitcher going forward, not a 30 to 35 mil stud that he used to be. Dodgers have almost 27% of their salaries tied up between Kershaw and kemp. I see them trying to trade kemp and letting Kershaw walk.
If he could get $335 mil for 1 season, he should take it!
Sometimes typos are fun.
If he’s smart, and I think he is; he should just sit tight and get healthy over the next couple of years. That’s his best bet at making more money in the long run.
2200 innings!
Warning! Warning!
Felix had about 2200 innings on his arm before it went ape &@%#.
I highly doubt Dodgers brass will extend him. Not unless his AAV drops a good amount. I love Kersh as much as anyone but he’s on the decline and is wildly inconsistent/terrible in the postseason.
If he opts out I’ve got a feeling they’ll slap a QO on him and let him fully test the market.
How does an opt out affect a club’s salary tax? If Kershaw opts out, his AAV for the five years he’s already pitched under the contract he signed would be $29.2 million. If he plays out the contract, the AAV is $30.7 million. I don’t think it’s the case with LA, but hypothetically… What if the Dodgers were $1 million over the luxury tax last year (just for example’s sake) – if Kershaw opts out, and the average he was PAID was $1.5 million less than the Dodgers got charged for, would that change anything?
I wonder the same thing abut incentive clauses. Say a player signs for an AAV of $10 million and has a chance at $3 million in incentives. In the second year of his contract, he hits all of them. It seems like the AAV on the contract would now be $11.5 million instead of $10 million. How does that affect luxury tax calculations?
Not an authority on competitive balance tax but my understanding of the collective bargaining agreement is that the amount of tax each year is determined on actual payroll for the completed season, including incentives and health and welfare benefits.
So any incentives reached would be taxed for that season only, and the incentives do not affect the AAV of the contract?
Correct. A very good example is Kenta Maeda whose AAV is around $3MM, but each season the team is taxed (or not) according to his actual pay for that season.
The calculation is… hit FA now and get a 5 year deal, or play 2 years then hit FA, then hope he’s still in a position to sign a big deal. I think he opts out and re-ups with the Dodgers about 72 hours later.
The “Kershaw is on the decline” crowd reminds me of Verlander a couple years ago. A couple of off-ish years, then a shortened 2015… “oh, he’s done for”.
I would be astonished if Kershaw did not opt out. Doing so would give him more job security by obtaining a longer deal with the Dodgers. I believe he wants to stay in LA and would only entertain elsewhere as leverage to get money from the Dodgers.
The smart move for Friedman is to not to pay $100 million+ over 4-5 years to a 30-year-old pitcher with chronic back issues, diminishing velocity and a poor postseason track record. However, one thing I haven’t seen anyone here bring up is that he’s a fan favorite. His jersey always sells and the fan base would likely be angry if they let him walk. They have to pay him.
I just hope they have enough to re-sign Ryu and Grandal. Barnes was like 0-11 in the World Series.
I think the dodgers are too smart to resign him, unless he’ll take much less than he could make on the open market
His value on open market has taken a huge hit, I believe he has more value to Dodgers than any other team. Unless Kershaw is willing to accept a much lower AAV in return for longer term contract I think he would be wise to play out the remaining 2 years for $65MM gambling that he will stay healthy and pitch well enough to test FA after 2020 season.
The most overrated player that I have ever seen. Dude is great in the regular season and garbage in the playoffs. Plus has has a bad back. I would stay away for him.
He has*
Kershaw’s “off” years would be considered extraordinary seasons for a majority of starting pitchers in MLB. Max Scherzer for example has never had a single season ERA better than Kershaw’s lifetime ERA. of 2.39. Chris Sale’s lifetime ERA of 2.89 is a half a run higher than Kershaw’s. Look up ANY other MLB pitchers stat’s compared to Kershaw’s to get a real world indication of just how good Kershaw has been.
You do realize Sale pitches in the AL, where you don’t get to face a high school-level hitter (the pitcher) every time through the order. Sale’s ERA is much more impressive actually.
It seems to me it wouldn’t be very bright for Kershaw to opt out of a guaranteed $30 million plus 2 year contract with the Dodgers. That would put him around 32-33 years old. If I’m reading this correctly, he’d have nothing to gain except a few extra years from which I can’t see an increase in salary because he’s injury prone and does not do well in post season play.
I feel as if he doesn’t opt out or resign quickly with the Dodgers, he won’t come back. My guess he’ll give the Dodgers every opportunity to match a contract, but another team (Yankees?) will give him a deal that Dodgers won’t match.
And yes he’ll opt out. Even if his market doesn’t develop, he can still get a 2/65 guarantee
He stays in LA for the guaranteed monster money for the next 2 years. Especially with his injuries, he’ll take that money now.
After those years, if he’s still healthy, he’ll probably still be able to sign on for a good 3-4 year deal.
Dodgers will offer an additional 3 year incentive laden deal to Kershaw in the next 3 days. Incentives will be based on no. of innings pitched in the final 3 years. Kershaw will retire a Dodger.
If Kershaw opts out, the Dodgers need to take a run at DeGrom. They have the parts to make a deal. They need a front line starter and then they’d have some cash to play with.
Lincecum was the ace for the first one, Cain for the second, and Mad Bum for the third.. They were all good for a short period of time. The Sox finished last with Porcello and Price on the team. Pitching is outlier.
Baseball is great, a few years ago the Cubs were the next dynasty, the last year it was the Astos that were unbeatable, now the Sox will be talked up as the best team ever. Who’s next?
…oh that’s simple…the Reds…..
Baseball is waaaaaaaaaay too accidental; combine that with the parity that comes with Revenue Sharing, it kind of precludes “dynasties”…..
Somehow lost by all the talking heads was that the Sox were very, very good….they won 108, and Cora definitely eased up on the gas for the last 6 weeks of the season…..you can make the case they’re one of the better of the all-time teams….
But lots of the guys had career years, and while their youth is attractive, it can also regress…..Yanks are tough, Jays and Rays could be tougher….and that’s just in the AL East….and oh, the Astros are still young, too….
Kershaw has made it clear that he wants to finish his career in one of two places – LA or Texas. I am a lifelong Dodger fan and hope it is LA, but after talking to someone who is very close to his wife, don’t be surprised if his next home field is in Arlington
Not Minute Maid? The Astros are in a competitive position where big-money contracts for veterans make sense. Not sure why the Rangers would want to offer one, unless there’s a huge discount involved. Which there won’t be.
Believe it or not money may not be that major factor- Kershaw has his home In Austin and he and his wife do a considerable amount of charity work in Texas with his foundation. He really didn’t like big city LA and Houston has a similar high visibility profile and aggressive media, especially since the Astros now are winning.