Mailbag: Roberts, Teixeira, Johan, Nathan, And More
Time for this week’s mailbag. You can hit it up at mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com to get in your question for next week.
Do you see the Twins signing a big name middle of the order bopper or trading for one before the opening of the new stadium in 2010? – Jordan
Funny you ask this. I recently asked LEN3 whether the Twins would have a $100MM payroll for the 2010 season, and he said, "I don’t see it." So I’ll go with his wisdom and say business as usual for the Twins despite the stadium.
Why are the White Sox not aggressively pursuing any pitching? Do they realistically think that Gavin Floyd and John Danks can hold down the #4 and #5 spots in the rotation on a contender? I believe we need to fill the holes with some veteran pitching such as Livan Hernandez who can eat up innings and possibly add Corey Patterson at center field. – Joel
I was just discussing this with a former coworker of mine. I can’t see the White Sox sneaking into a Wild Card berth with this rotation, but what’s the alternative? I don’t like the Livan idea. I would consider signing a couple of swingmen/injury risk types such as Brett Tomko or Bartolo Colon if he looks decent. Just a few low risk/OK reward guys with good stuff who could pay off. There’s no place for Patterson in the current Chicago outfield, I wouldn’t do that.
Were the Cubs holding off on the Brian Roberts trade until they got Lieber? – Bryant
The Cubs/Roberts thing still seems possible, and trading both Sean Marshall and Sean Gallagher is slightly easier to stomach with Lieber on board. If I were Jim Hendry I would let the whole Roberts idea go though.
What is the likelihood of the Braves signing Mark Teixeira long-term? – Matthew
I’ll put it at a 10% chance. This is a $100MM+ contract and he’s represented by Scott Boras. He’ll probably want to test the open market, and there could be some ridiculous bids.
When, just when will this Santana situation be over?! It’s just killing me! – Dan
We all feel your pain Dan. Most folks seem sick of reading similar rehashed rumors about this. I would be surprised if we don’t know Santana’s fate one month from now. Of course if his fate is to start the season with the Twins, then the rumors will restart in June.
Are there any trade rumors involving Joe Nathan? – Justin
C’mon Justin, you know I’d never hold out rumors on you. If Bill Smith is shopping Nathan around or getting inquiries, all parties are running very tight ships. Desperation for closers seems to kick in midseason, when certain bullpens are established as clearly crappy. So guys like Nathan and Huston Street may be more likely to be moved in June or July.
Why did the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell for Hank Blalock/John Danks deal fall through back in November of ’05? – Oliver
The Rangers believed the deal was done, and hoped to avoid any leaks before it was official. However, a source tipped off the Palm Beach Post. The Post and a Texas newspaper ran with it. It was at that point the Boston front office found out, swooped in, and beat the Rangers’ offer. Those reporters altered history.
What do you see the Milwaukee Brewers doing with their pitching surplus? Do you see them maybe using some of their excess pitchers like Capuano and Bush to acquire a young catcher with some upside? – Tyler
We’ve seen it a million times – these winter pitching surpluses turn into deficits by May. There is certainly a case to be made for the Brewers to just stand pat, though all those arms would be tough to squeeze in given the bullpen acquisitions. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy expects some of the surplus to be traded before Spring Training. I like the catcher idea – Jeff Clement (Mariners), Bryan Anderson (Cardinals), or Taylor Teagarden/Gerald Laird (Rangers) seem like possible matches.
Do the Yankees sign Bobby Abreu after the 2008 season? – Andrew
Andrew notes that the Yanks have some money coming off the books after the ’08 season. The right field alternatives are weak, so Abreu could make sense. If he’d take a two or three-year extension midseason I could see Cashman doing it.
Did you ever sell your place in Lombard? – Steve
Thankfully I did. I tried selling by owner for a month and barely got any bites. Then I hired an agent and she sold it in three days.
What Might’ve Been: Beckett And Lowell For Blalock And Danks
At the suggestion of several readers, I’m starting up a new feature here at MLBTR called What Might’ve Been. Basically we’ll look back at rumors and near-deals that did not end up happening, and consider how things would be if they had occurred.
Today’s near-rumor is from November 19th, 2005. That day, the Marlins nearly traded Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell to the Rangers for Hank Blalock and John Danks.
Let’s start with the Fish. They would never have received Hanley Ramirez, Anibal Sanchez, and others from Boston. Instead they would’ve gotten Blalock in ’06 and Blalock plus Danks in ’07. Some rough math using Baseball Prospectus’ WARP stat leads us to believe the Marlins would’ve had 11 fewer wins in ’06 and four fewer in ’07 if they made the Texas deal. Take those 11 wins in ’06 and spread them around the NL, maybe the Astros or even Reds win the Central instead of the Cards. Another consequence: Blalock at third might’ve meant Miguel Cabrera remained in left field. Maybe then Josh Willingham ends up catching, doesn’t get his opportunity, or gets traded.
Moving on to the Rangers. Swapping Blalock for Beckett and Lowell might’ve meant an extra eight wins in ’06 (again, rough math for the sake of the exercise). Eight more wins still probably doesn’t put the ’06 Rangers in the playoffs. Eleven marginal wins in ’07 with Beckett fronting their rotation and Lowell at third still wouldn’t have meant a playoff berth, even with an additional boost for not trading Mark Teixeira. In real life, Beckett signed a three-year extension in July of ’06. Maybe he wouldn’t have signed or been offered this by Jon Daniels. Under that scenario Beckett would’ve been a free agent this winter, snagging a massive 5-7 year deal with the Red Sox, Yankees, or some other club. And would the Red Sox have been more active on Alex Rodriguez this winter if they’d never had Lowell? Moreso if they were not the ’07 World Champs?
Speaking of the Red Sox: say they just hung on to Ramirez and Sanchez, for simplicity’s sake. The Sox still would’ve traded Edgar Renteria and signed Alex Gonzalez before the ’06 season, but maybe Ramirez beats him out for the shortstop job. Best case scenario, Ramirez over Gonzalez in ’06 nets the Sox six wins. That’s at least negated by using Sanchez instead of Beckett and whoever instead of Lowell. The Sox still would’ve missed the playoffs in ’06 – even if they’d signed Roger Clemens or A.J. Burnett after failing to acquire Beckett.
The Beckett-less ’07 Red Sox would’ve probably reached the playoffs, given the huge boost in having Hanley instead of Julio Lugo. The Lugo signing never would’ve happened; maybe he ends up with the Cubs or Mets, who made offers in real life. Instead, the Red Sox might’ve tried to lure Aramis Ramirez or settled for Mark DeRosa as their ’07 third baseman. Do the Red Sox make it past the Indians in the ALCS without Beckett? Perhaps, if they had signed Burnett in the 2005-06 offseason and a decent third baseman in 2006-07.
By the way, the White Sox would not have been able to get Danks from the Marlins for Brandon McCarthy. Who knows what Kenny Williams does with McCarthy in this alternate reality.
I’m dizzy. Thoughts on the new feature, and any corrections on my speculation? Any juicy consequences I missed?
Odds and Ends: Manny, Johan, Saarloos
Here are some links I’ve rounded up for today. I like the analogy that the Odds and Ends posts are like a pack of baseball cards. You never know what you’ll get, and sometimes there’s gum.
- UmpBump explains why they expect Manny Ramirez to retire a Red Sox.
- Matthew Cerrone provides some new Johan Santana musings.
- RotoAuthority (which I write) ranks the 78 starting pitchers you should consider in your fantasy baseball mixed league.
- The A’s, admitting they need bodies, will bring Kirk Saarloos back on a minor league invite. He’ll be 29 in May; his claim to fame is winning ten games for the ’05 A’s.
- The Rangers will need to make roster space for Jason Jennings; could Jason Botts be DFA’d?
Odds and Ends: Stewart, Shelton, LaRoche
Today’s smattering of random rumors and links. Question for you readers: how do you feel about the Odds and Ends posts in general? Interesting? Lame? Do you skip them, or are they worthwhile?
- Friend of MLBTR Susan Slusser quotes Shannon Stewart as saying the A’s are one of several teams in the running for his services. If you browse the ol’ free agent list, you’ll see that the other available free agent left fielders include Barry Bonds, Luis Gonzalez, Kevin Mench, Reggie Sanders, and Brad Wilkerson.
- Chris Shelton, we hardly knew ye – the Rangers have already DFA’d him. Career OPS of .825, seems the guy deserves a decent shot somewhere. Other Rangers news, Jason Jennings seems like a lock at this point.
- The Pirates and Adam LaRoche agreed at $5MM for ’08. They could still work out an extension that starts with the ’09 season.
- Wondering which service to use for your fantasy league this March? I merely started the discussion at RotoAuthority, and then commenters weighed in with tons of excellent feedback.
Brian Roberts Deal Dead?
A trusted emailer wrote in to tell me about a report today from Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000. According to Levine, Brian Roberts is no longer available. The Orioles were apparently asking for Tyler Colvin or Felix Pie plus multiple pitchers, and the Cubs wouldn’t do it.
Levine says the Cubs may turn their attention to the Rangers’ Marlon Byrd or free agent Jon Lieber.
Astros Close On Runelvys Hernandez
Brian McTaggart of the Houston Chronicle reports that the Astros are close to a one-year deal with starter Runelvys Hernandez. Hernandez will turn 30 in April. He spent 2007 in Triple A with the Pirates, Yankees, and Red Sox organizations.
None of this seems terribly interesting, but the article also says Hernandez got on a strict training regimen. Now that he’s in shape, he’s reportedly hitting 97 on the gun (sounds like agent-speak to me). I’ll believe it when I see it. But Hernandez chose the right team in the Astros, as they’re hurting for starting pitching. It’s not a done deal yet; he’s having some last minute discussions with other clubs. McTaggart says the Rangers, Pirates, Phillies, and Reds have all shown interest.
Odds and Ends: Morneau, Jocketty, Santana
Your usual dose of random rumors and links…
- Justin Morneau says he has had no extension discussions with the Twins.
- The Reds brought Walt Jocketty aboard as a special advisor to President and CEO Bob Castellini today. For now, Wayne Krivsky’s job appears safe. But jeez, with Walt in the house he has to be feeling a little pressure, doesn’t he? In other news, the Reds talked with Brett Tomko‘s agent this week.
- The Tigers signed Matt Mantei for the league minimum. He can ask for his release if he’s not in the bigs by May 1st. As Jon Paul Morosi notes Mantei hasn’t pitched in the Majors for more than two years.
- RotoAuthority ranks the third basemen for fantasy baseball.
- Buster Olney says the A’s talks with the Braves for Mark Kotsay "have a chance of becoming serious today."
- Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey has a source who believes the Mets will get Johan Santana "no matter what they have to do."
- The Rangers made the Eddie Guardado deal official, and also brought Jamey Wright back on a minor league contract. Guardado got a bit more than I expected – $2MM base plus $4MM in incentives for games pitched and finished.
Akinori Otsuka Headed For Elbow Surgery?
The Newberg Report passes along a comment reportedly made by Rangers GM Jon Daniels yesterday. Apparently, Daniels told the crowd that he non-tendered Akinori Otsuka because he’s headed for elbow surgery. The status of Aki’s elbow had been a mystery up to this point, though there had been signs that it wasn’t right.
Odds and Ends: Mantei, Foulke, Cairo, Guardado
Here are this morning’s random rumors and links.
- Matt Mantei will throw for the Tigers this week, and hopes to get a minor league deal. The 34 year-old hasn’t pitched in the bigs since 2005 for Boston.
- The D’Backs will watch Keith Foulke throw later this month as he attempts his comeback after a year off. The Indians and Red Sox are other teams Foulke may have special interest in.
- The Mariners signed Miguel Cairo in an effort to push incumbent second baseman Jose Lopez. Cairo has a career line of .267/.315/.367, while Lopez is at .261/.295/.379. Cairo is the lesser of two evils, I guess.
- Andy MacPhail is talking about (or at least posturing that) he’s going to start looking to fill holes via free agency since he’s not getting the right trade offers. I imagine Octavio Dotel is still on the Orioles’ radar to close.
- The Rangers were close to signing Eddie Guardado in December, and now they’re…still close.
Gammons Chat: Crisp, Santana, Ramirez
The Boston Globe ran a chat with Peter Gammons today, and some good hot stove material came about.
- Gammons believes the Rangers or A’s could go after Coco Crisp if he’s not dealt to the Twins. He notes that "the A’s think he’s the best CF in the game right now," and that Billy Beane could acquire him to flip him.
- He says the Mets are currently trying to build up inventory to trade for Johan Santana, and that might be why Bill Smith hasn’t pulled the trigger on anything yet.
- Gammons believes the Red Sox will exercise Manny Ramirez‘s $20MM options for the 2009 and 2010 seasons. He notes that Manny is getting himself into phenomenal shape this winter.