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Quick Hits: Draft, Player Salaries, Blue Jays

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Some items from around the sport…

  • The league’s decision to limit this year’s amateur draft to five rounds is explored by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required), who notes that the players’ union turned down a proposal from MLB to have a ten-round draft, with the signing bonuses attached to the picks in rounds 6-10 reduced to half of their usual value.  The gap between the cost of full bonuses and half-bonuses was relatively minor, only around $500K per team, yet the MLBPA “did not want to set the precedent of altering the March deal, knowing the league will likely seek a similar opening next week and ask for additional sacrifices.”  This is in reference to the public discord that has already taken place between MLB and the union about the possibility of reduced player salaries should the season begin without any fans in attendance.
  • Speaking of salaries, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney points out that some players managed to avoid the financial crunch that most of the players around baseball will face under the terms of the March agreement between the league and the MLBPA.  Those with deferred contracts will take less of a financial hit in 2020 since they’ll be getting their money down the road, while other players (i.e. Dellin Betances) who had up-front signing bonuses in their contracts have already received those full payments.  Zack Cozart will receive the full $12.167MM salary owed to him in 2020 since the Giants released him in January, whereas Cozart would have had his salary greatly reduced had he still been on San Francisco’s roster at the time of the shutdown.
  • While nothing has been decided about the location of any possible 2020 games for any team, restrictions on the Canada/U.S. border adds another layer of difficulty to the possibility of Blue Jays games in Toronto, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes.  International visitors to Canada are currently subject to a mandatory 14 days of either self-isolation or quarantine upon arriving in the country, depending on whether or not they show any coronavirus symptoms.  While the Jays have had some discussions with civic and provincial officials about the feasibility of playing games at Rogers Centre, Davidi notes that the club could end up playing regular season games at its Spring Training facility in Dunedin unless the situation changes (such as “expected advancements and the wide-scale deployments of rapid-result diagnostic testing”).

Anthopoulos Discusses Acquiring Troy Tulowitzki In 2015

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In a recent radio appearance on Sportsnet 590 The Fan’s Lead Off show (audio link available, with geographic restrictions), current Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos discussed one of the signature moves from his tenure as the Blue Jays’ general manager — namely, the blockbuster trade that brought Troy Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins from the Rockies to the Jays in July 2015, with Jose Reyes and three well-regarded pitching prospects going to Colorado.

Anthopoulos said initial talks with the Rockies began during the 2014-15 offseason, as “we had concerns with Jose Reyes’ defense at the end of 2014.”  Reyes was coming off a rough year of glovework, posting a minus -3.3 UZR/150 and minus-14 Defensive Runs Saved over 1243 2/3 innings as Toronto’s shortstop.  As per those two metrics, Reyes had been a subpar defender for multiple seasons, though Anthopoulos said the decline in the shortstop’s range was becoming a particular issue for the Jays.

By comparison, Tulowitzki was a much more accomplished defender, in the eyes of both the advanced metrics and in terms of hardware (two Gold Gloves and three Fielding Bible Awards between 2007-11).  The +4.2 UZR/150 and +2 DRS that Tulowitzki posted in 2015 made him a major upgrade over Reyes — as Anthopoulos noted, Tulowitzki didn’t make a single error as a Blue Jay during the 2015 regular season and postseason.

After a loss to the Phillies on July 28, 2015, the day of the Tulowitzki deal, Toronto had only a 50-51 record and sat eight games out of first place in the AL East.  Anthopoulos still felt confident that his club could break out, however: “We lost a ton of games just because we were not playing good defense, and all the pieces were there to have a great team.”

Anthopoulos cited Tulowitzki and Ben Revere (picked up in a less-heralded deadline day deal with the Phillies) as major elements to the defensive turnaround, and of course the Jays’ other headline-grabbing trade to land David Price from the Tigers also helped on the run-prevention front.  The rest was history — after that July 28 loss to Philadelphia, the Blue Jays went on a 43-18 tear over the rest of the regular season to clinch the team’s first AL East title and playoff berth since 1993.

“For me, the key was just shoring up the defense across the board,” Anthopoulos said.  “From Tulo, to getting Ben Revere in left and not having Chris Colabello and [Danny] Valencia on the corners in the outfield when [Jose] Bautista was out DHing.  Just becoming a better defensive club, that really made the whole team get to where we should have been the entire year, when you’re looking at runs scored [and] runs against.”

While things obviously worked out for Toronto, losing Reyes was no small issue to his former teammates.  “It’s not like the clubhouse was elated…we knew they would be jarred” Anthopoulos said, adding that Reyes’ “work ethic was fantastic” and that the shortstop was “so well-liked without our clubhouse.”

Still, some version of Reyes-for-Tulowitzki was a constant within the Jays’ talks with the Rockies, as Anthopoulos said “we were adamant that Reyes had to be part of the deal going back.”  Beyond the practical element of filling each team’s need at shortstop, including Reyes in the trade helped offset some of the added financial costs Toronto faced in taking on Tulowitzki’s contract.  Tulowitzki was owed a minimum of $98MM from 2016-20, while Reyes earned $48MM through the 2017 season — two seasons of salary and then a $4MM buyout of his $22MM club option for 2018.  As it happened, Reyes forfeited roughly $7.09MM of that salary due to a suspension under the domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy, and he was released by Colorado in June 2016.

For more on the Tulowitzki trade, Jeff Todd recently took a longer-term view of the transaction as part of MLBTR’s YouTube video series, making the case that it was something of a win-win deal for both the Blue Jays and Rockies, even though “both were left a little bit shy of what they really expected to get.”

10 MLB Teams Whose Business Initiatives Face Coronavirus Hurdles

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Like most every person or business, all thirty MLB teams face tough questions during the time of COVID-19. Some are relatively similar for all ballclubs, but there are obviously quite a few unique issues — some more pressing than others.

Dealing with the implications of this pandemic is probably toughest for organizations that are in the midst of executing or planning major business initiatives. We’ll run down some of those here.

Angels: The team has been cooking up potentially massive plans to develop the area around Angel Stadium. Fortunately, nothing is really in process at the moment, but it stands to reason that the project could end up being reduced in scope and/or delayed.

Athletics: Oof. The A’s have done a ton of work to put a highly ambitious stadium plan in motion. Massive uncertainty of this type can’t help. It isn’t clear just yet how the effort will be impacted, but it seems reasonable to believe the organization is pondering some tough decisions.

Braves: Luckily for the Atlanta-area organization, the team’s new park and most of the surrounding development is already fully operational. But with the added earning capacity from retail operations in a ballpark village comes greater exposure to turmoil.

Cubs: Like the Braves, the Cubs have already done most of the work at and around their park, but were counting on big revenue to pay back what’s owed (and then some). Plus, the Cubbies have a new TV network to bring up to speed.

Diamondbacks: Vegas?! Vancouver?! Probably not, but the Snakes do want to find a new home somewhere in Arizona. That effort is sure to be dented. Plus, the team’s recent initiative to host non-baseball events at Chase Field will now go on hiatus.

Marlins: The new ownership group has had some good vibes going and hoped to convert some of the positivity into a healthy new TV deal. That critical negotiation will now take place in a brutal economic environment.

Mets: So … this is probably not an optimal moment to be selling your sports franchise. The Wilpon family is pressing ahead with an effort to strike a new deal after their prior one broke down (at the worst possible time).

Orioles: That bitter television rights fee dispute that just won’t stop … it’s not going to be easier to find a resolution with less cash coming through the door. It was already setting up to be a rough stretch for the Baltimore org, with past TV money due to the Nationals and more bills to come, even while going through brutally lean years on the playing field.

Rangers: The new park is now built. While taxpayers footed much of the bill, the club still has to pay back a $600MM loan. Suffice to say the Rangers (and municipal authorities) anticipated game day revenues of more than $0 in year one when they planned out the loan repayment method.

Rays: The club’s preferred Ybor City option flamed out and it is currently engaged in a somewhat confusing effort to split time between the Tampa Bay area and Montreal. Existing hurdles to that arrangement seem only to be taller in the age of the coronavirus.

Others: We may be missing some, but it seems most other organizations are engaged more in usual-course sorts of business initiatives rather than franchise-altering efforts. For instance, the Nats have an interest in that TV deal as well. The Red Sox have been working to redevelop areas around Fenway Park. The Blue Jays are dabbling in future plans. And the Dodgers have a new TV rights deal, though that came to fruition after the pandemic hit and may not be impacted any more than any other existing carriage arrangements.

Ryan Borucki Making Progress In Recovery From Elbow Injury

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Blue Jays southpaw Ryan Borucki is throwing off of a mound without issue, Blue Jays pitching coach Pete Walker tells Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). Walker says he expects Borucki to “be right in the mix” on the MLB staff if and when the 2020 campaign gets underway.

Any time you see a pitcher shut down with elbow tightness, it’s hard not to fear the worst. But indications of late have been that Borucki was feeling better and improving. Now it seems clear he’s ramping back towards full speed.

There’s certainly no reason to rush the process for the southpaw, who celebrated his 26th birthday at the end of March. With no reason to anticipate a near-term resumption of Spring Training — let alone the launch of the regular season — there’s ample time to build up slowly.

That only makes the news of this progress more encouraging, as it seems he’s allowing his body to dictate the pace. Walker says that Borucki’s left arm “feels great.” A little added rest may confer long-term benefits for the the former 15th-round draft pick, who only made six starts at all levels in 2019 owing to bone spurs in his pitching elbow.

The Jays are no doubt anxious to see a fully healthy Borucki back on the hill. He showed quite well in his first MLB action, throwing 97 2/3 innings of 3.87 ERA ball in 2018. While the Toronto organization added a bunch of new arms to its rotation mix, there’s little question that some need and opportunity will arise at some point, and Borucki figures to be among the top candidates to step in when the time comes.

Quick Hits: Hamilton, Feierabend, Draft, Lannan

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The Major League career of former first baseman/outfielder Mark Hamilton consisted of 47 games with the Cardinals in 2010-11, a brief stint that netted Hamilton a World Series ring for his role in the Cards’ 2011 championship squad.  After being released by the Braves in July 2014, Hamilton stuck to his vow to go to medical school if he wasn’t a big league regular by his 30th birthday, and ESPN.com’s Alden Gonzalez writes that Hamilton is set to officially begin his medical career in June at two New York hospitals “at the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic.”  Though Hamilton is trained in interventional radiology, the early days of his six-year residency program will inevitably be focused on helping treat coronavirus patients.  While the pandemic has “been very eye-opening,”  Hamilton said, “I wanted to go into medicine because I really enjoyed caring for people. I enjoy being able to help others when they’re in their darkest hour, when they need somebody to both support them from a medical side and an emotional side. And I’m definitely going to be able to do that in my first year.”

Some more from around baseball…

  • Left-hander Ryan Feierabend signed with the Uni-President Lions of the Chinese Professional Baseball League during the offseason, so Feierabend his fellow CPBL peers have gotten their season underway in Taiwan while the rest of the baseball world is still on pause, The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm writes.  Since Taiwan quickly enacted measures against COVID-19, the outbreak has been severely limited on the island, thus allowing for businesses, schools, and other larger public gatherings to continue to operate, albeit under safety restrictions.  CPBL games, for instance, are being played without fans in attendance.  Given how matters seem to be somewhat under control in Taiwan, Feierabend said he “would feel more comfortable” if his wife and children were in Taiwan rather than in the United States, both for safety reasons and simply so the family could be together.  “It’s a sacrifice being away…Having to deal with that while the pandemic is going on, it’s definitely stressful,” Feierabend said, praising his wife Sarah for being “the rock of our family.”
  • Arizona State’s Spencer Torkelson would be the first pick of this year’s amateur draft if MLB.com’s Jim Callis held the reins in the Tigers’ front office.  (Detroit has the first overall selection.)  Callis is a fan of Torkelson’s power potential, calling him “one of the biggest impact college bats in recent years” and saying he might deliver seasons in the range of 35 homers and a .280 average on a regular basis in the majors.  Vanderbilt outfielder/third baseman Austin Martin is a close second for Callis, and unsurprisingly, Torkelson and Martin also occupy the top two spots on MLB Pipeline’s list of the top 150 draft prospects.
  • The Blue Jays have made mental performance a major aspect of their player development system at both the Major League and minor league levels, with eight-year MLB veteran John Lannan was hired as the newest member of the six-person mental performance department this past January.  As The Athletic’s John Lott (subscription required) writes, Lannan went back to school to study sports psychology after retiring in August 2017, and realized the subject matter was instantly relatable to the modern player.  “Once I was going into all these deep dives into sports psychology, it just brought to mind a lot of situations throughout my career, where it started to make sense why I might have felt the way I felt and what I could have probably done about it if I’d known more about the subject,” Lannan said.  Lott outlines the Jays front office’s philosophy about the benefits of mental performance, and how the department’s role has now evolved with players stuck at home waiting out the pandemic.

AL Notes: Cora, Red Sox, Indians, Blue Jays

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Ex-Red Sox manager Alex Cora was just suspended for 2020 thanks to the role he played as the Astros’ bench coach during their 2017 sign-stealing scandal. Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and president Sam Kennedy made it sound earlier this week as if they wouldn’t bring Cora back at the end of his ban, but Kennedy may be open to it after all (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com). Kennedy told “Ordway, Merloni & Fauria” of WEEI that Cora’s “a great baseball manager.” As for whether the Red Sox would rehire him, Kennedy said: “We’ll talk about that down the road. We just removed Ron Roenicke’s interim tag and he’s going to lead our club going forward. I think a lot of Alex’s future depends on how he approaches this suspension period.” For at least this season, Roenicke – Cora’s former bench coach – will manage the team.

More on a couple other American League franchises…

  • The Indians have taken a step to compensate the majority of their employees for the foreseeable future during the COVID-19 pandemic. They’ve committed to paying their full-time staff their entire salaries through at least the end of June, Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN.com report. Forty of the Indians’ senior staff members took pay cuts so the rest of the full-time staff could receive their typical salaries. The Indians have furloughed part-time workers and interns, on the other hand, but they could make the same amount of money or even more by way of unemployment benefits, according to Passan. While most of the league’s teams have committed to paying their non-player employees through May, the Indians are among the few that we know will extend beyond that point.
  • As a result of the season postponement, two fans recently filed a lawsuit against all 30 MLB teams and ticket companies StubHub, Ticketmaster, Live Nation, and Last Minute Transactions because they haven’t been able to get a refund for tickets purchased for 2020. The Blue Jays are not among the teams that have refused to give fans their money back, however, president Mark Shapiro told Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star. “We have fielded every single call and whenever there has been a hardship, or a circumstance, that has necessitated a refund, we have refunded those tickets,” said Shapiro, who added, “We have not fought any of those and will continue to do that.” Shapiro’s under the impression that the league’s “very close” to announcing “a broader policy on refunds and exchanges.”

The Blue Jays’ Uncertain Outfield Mix

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When the Blue Jays were at their peak in 2015-16, the outfield wasn’t much of an issue. Jose Bautista was holding down right field as one of MLB’s most feared hitters — the brash owner of a .243/.372/.499 slash line that underscored his patience at the plate and his thunderous power. In center field, Kevin Pillar was a staple on highlight reels thanks to a superhuman defensive prowess that led to his gaudy 38 Defensive Runs Saved in that two-year stretch. Pillar’s .272/.309/.388 slash wasn’t particularly impressive, but paired with his world-beating defense, that made him a plenty valuable player on the whole.

Left field was a bit shakier, if only because of persistent injury troubles for the since-retired Michael Saunders. More often than not, Saunders was in the lineup, though the Jays also trotted out Ben Revere, Ezequiel Carrera and Danny Valencia at times. That was the closest they’ve come to any real inconsistency in that time.

That continuity feels like a distant memory now, as the Jays have since turned over their entire outfield mix on multiple occasions and yet still don’t have much certainty. It appears likely that 2019 breakout slugger Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will get the first look in left field whenever play resumes. His 2019 season at the plate was undeniably impressive — .277/.327/.541, 20 homers in 343 PAs — but it also came in a season that was skewed by a juiced ball. Gurriel’s glovework didn’t rate well, either, though he’s a converted infielder so perhaps there’ll be an uptick with more experience.

Center field seems likely to go to Randal Grichuk, though at this point that’s because of his contract more than his recent play. The Jays signed Grichuk to a surprising extension last spring, and Grichuk responded with a career-worst .232/.280/.457 slash. That .280 OBP was the worst in baseball among qualified hitters. Even without a 2020 season, Grichuk would still be owed $29MM from 2021-23, so he’s sure to get a chance (or multiple chances) at redemption — but a replacement-level showing in year one of the deal isn’t what the Jays had in mind.

The remaining outfield options (in alphabetical order):

  • Anthony Alford, drafted in third round (2012): A two-sport star who could’ve pursued a career in football as well, Alford has received just 59 plate appearances in the past three seasons and now finds himself out of minor league options. Alford was a top 100 prospect each year from 2016-18, but he’s yet to even hit in Triple-A and now has no clear path to playing time in such a crowded mix.
  • Jonathan Davis, drafted in the 15th round (2013): Davis will turn 28 in a few weeks and has just 122 MLB plate appearances to his credit (with a .185/.264/.259 slash). Davis runs well and has shown a patient eye at the plate in the upper minors, but he’s been a roughly average bat in Triple-A and seems more like a fourth outfielder than a big league regular.
  • Brandon Drury, acquired from Yankees in exchange for J.A. Happ: As recently as 2016-17, Drury looked like a solid multi-positional piece with the D-backs. Since hitting .275/.323/.453 in that stretch, though, he’s been traded to the Yankees and then the Jays, hitting just .210/.261/.362 in 533 plate appearances along the way. Drury popped up an astonishing 21 times in just 447 plate appearances this past season, and his strikeout rate has risen from 20 percent in ’16 to 25.3 percent in ’19.
  • Derek Fisher, acquired from the Astros in exchange for Aaron Sanchez, Joe Biagini: With George Springer, Josh Reddick, Michael Brantley, Jake Marisnick and Kyle Tucker all ahead of him during his time with Houston, Fisher never got much of a chance. Like McKinney, he’s not fooled by Triple-A pitching (career .289/.379/.520), but Fisher has whiffed in nearly 37 percent of his 419 Major League plate appearances — including a 40.2 percent mark in 107 PAs with Toronto. He, too, is out of minor league options.
  • Teoscar Hernandez, acquired from the Astros in exchange for Francisco Liriano: Hernandez came to the Jays as an exit-velocity darling and still makes plenty of good contact, but his hard-hit rate and average exit velo did trend in the wrong direction last year. His strikeout issues aren’t as pronounced as those of Fisher, but Hernandez has punched out at a 32 percent clip in just shy of 1000 Blue Jays plate appearances.
  • Billy McKinney, acquired from Yankees in exchange for J.A. Happ: A former first-round pick (Athletics, 2013), McKinney has been traded from Oakland to Chicago to New York to Toronto — never receiving a real big league opportunity prior to Toronto. He’s since appeared in 120 games and taken 404 plate appearances with the Jays, but he’s mustered a tepid .227/.289/.437 slash in that stretch. McKinney has consistently hit Triple-A pitching, but that hasn’t stopped the Jays from acquiring new outfield options to join the competition.

The Jays have a potential breakout candidate in left field (Gurriel), a rebound candidate in center (Grichuk) and what seems competition brewing in a make-or-break year for many of their remaining players. The DH spot will give them some extra opportunities to evaluate all of their options from an offensive standpoint, but they’ll also want to get a look at Rowdy Tellez in that spot.

Both Alford and Fisher need to remain on the big league roster or else be exposed to waiver, while Hernandez and McKinney each have just one option year remaining. Drury is more of a utility option than an everyday piece in the outfield, but he was already in danger of being non-tendered this winter and is down to his final option year as well.

On the whole, it’s a rather underwhelming cast of characters despite the club’s considerable efforts to bring together a mix of intriguing, often post-hype outfield candidates. Between this group’s eroding minor league options and talk of Cavan Biggio eventually moving to the outfield — although defensive metrics thought his work at second base was plenty good in ’19 — it’s possible that no one from this set of players will be a part of the next contending outfield unit in Toronto.

The Jays already made one aggressive, win-now move this winter when they signed Hyun-Jin Ryu, and team president Mark Shapiro recently indicated that the Jays could use a center field upgrade. If this group can’t get it done whenever play resumes, it seems likely that Shapiro, GM Ross Atkins and the rest of the front office will be left with little choice other than pursuing more established options now that the club is moving away from its rebuilding phase.

Quick Hits: Bautista, Holland, Pirates, MLB Economics

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We’ll round up a few notes from around baseball this weekend.

  • Last month, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that José Bautista had been eyeing a return as a two-way player. While his hope of representing the Dominican Republic in the Olympic qualifying tournament was dashed by the event’s postponement, Bautista doesn’t appear to be giving up his two-way dream. He tells Sportsnet he would consider trying the dual role in the 2021 World Baseball Classic. Interestingly, he seems open to the idea of representing Team Spain (his father is a Spanish citizen, thus granting him eligibility), Sportsnet adds, if the Dominican team doesn’t offer him a roster spot. The former Blue Jays’ star admitted it’d be a long shot for him to ever pitch in the majors, but noted he’d be “ready just in case.”
  • Derek Holland was on track to crack the Pirates’ season-opening rotation prior to the shutdown, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. He’d likely have slotted in behind Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams and Mitch Keller for first-year manager Derek Shelton. If the 2020 season is indeed played, Holland would presumably still figure to grab a roster spot, particularly since any playing scenario is likely to involve significant roster expansion. Holland’s minor-league deal originally called for a $1.25MM base salary if he were to make the club, reported ESPN. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained this week, though, player salaries would be paid on a prorated basis in the event of a shortened season.
  • Major League Baseball economics are sure to be rocked by the coronavirus hiatus, notes Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. It’s obviously too early to know exactly how teams, players and the league will respond to the loss of gate receipts. Nevertheless, Speier speaks with a handful of sports economists (and Scott Boras) about ways in which MLB could look to mitigate their losses in attendance revenue. As former SABR president Vince Gennaro points out, fan-free games might force teams to explore innovative media packages as alternatives to in-person attendance. Speier’s piece is well worth a full perusal for those interested in the sport’s economic future.

Blue Jays Notes: 2015 ALDS, Borucki, Pearson, Ryu

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In a piece that any Blue Jays fan will want to read, Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi chatted with right-hander Anthony Bass about what it was like to be on the other side of Toronto’s stunning ALDS comeback against the Rangers in 2015. Bass wasn’t on Texas’ ALDS roster, Davidi notes, but he was on hand as a member of the taxi squad and experienced the stunning defeat first-hand. Bass chronicles the manner in which tensions began to boil from Game 1 of the series all the way through the baffling (but within the rules) play that allowed Rougned Odor to score on a throw back to the pitcher and the three errors that set up Jose Bautista’s iconic bat flip a half inning later. Bass called Bautista’s bomb “a dagger” and likened the Rangers’ clubhouse in the wake of that defeat to a morgue. Joining the Jays on a waiver claim nearly a half decade later didn’t conjure up any bad memories for Bass, who explained that he was simply “excited about how much the organization was happy to have me.” It’s an excellent first-hand look back at one of the most epic games in recent memory and a welcome diversion from our current baseball-free landscape.

Some more notes on the Jays…

  • Although the Blue Jays shut down left-hander Ryan Borucki in Spring Training due to tightness in his left elbow, but manager Charlie Montoyo revealed today that Borucki is feeling “great” and hasn’t had any setbacks in working his way back from that hiccup (Twitter link via Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith). The 26-year-old Borucki should be a candidate for the fifth spot in the rotation behind Hyun-Jin Ryu, Chase Anderson, Tanner Roark and Matt Shoemaker in a dramatically overhauled Jays rotation. Borucki broke into the Majors with 97 2/3 innings of 3.87 ERA/3.80 FIP ball in 2018, but elbow troubles limited him to just 6 2/3 innings last year.
  • Of course, many Blue Jays fans are more curious about exactly when uber-prospect Nate Pearson will arrive in the Majors. General manager Ross Atkins touched on that subject a bit when stepping in as the host for Gregor Chisholm’s reader mailbag at the Toronto Star this week. Asked how the delayed season will impact Pearson, who was expected to be on an innings limit in 2020, Atkins explained that rather than stick to a rudimentary and “rigid” innings limit, the organization is more focused on “monitoring fatigue, workload, and effort” with all of their pitchers but perhaps particularly with Borucki and Shoemaker (who is returning from a torn ACL that cost him most of the 2019 season). Asked whether with hypothetical advance knowledge that the season would be up in the air, the Jays still would have still signed Ryu to a four-year pact, Atkins indicated that the signing was as much about 2021 and beyond as 2020 and doubted the Jays’ offseason plans would’ve radically altered. Other topics include the upcoming draft, Atkins’ own day-to-day routine during the shutdown and the ways in which his own approach to player development has evolved over the years.

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays’ quest to overhaul their pitching staff led to one of the biggest signings in franchise history.

Major League Signings

International Signings

  • Shun Yamaguchi, SP/RP: Two years, $6.35MM (plus $1.27MM to the Yomiuri Giants as a transfer fee)

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The 2019-20 offseason represented a turning point in the Blue Jays’ rebuild process, as Toronto cast a very wide net in search of upgrades both large and small.  The Jays were linked to just about every available pitcher, and also looked into such notable position player trade targets and free agents as Francisco Lindor, Yasmani Grandal, Didi Gregorius, Mike Moustakas, and former Toronto favorite Edwin Encarnacion.

It was a big push from a team coming off three consecutive losing seasons, and one that didn’t necessarily announce an intent to be a full-on contender in 2020.  Back in February, Jays president/CEO Mark Shapiro stated that even a “.500 [record] would be a big step forward” for a club that only went 67-95 last season, yet it’s clear that management has a lot of faith that its young core of players can get the Blue Jays back into the playoff hunt sooner rather than later.

This set the stage for Hyun-Jin Ryu’s four-year, $80MM contract.  It was the seventh-richest contract given to any free agent this winter in terms of total dollars, and it also marked the third-largest deal the Jays have given to any player.  It was a big commitment to make to a 33-year-old pitcher with a lengthy injury history, though Ryu brings genuine top-of-the-rotation ability when healthy.  Ryu’s 182 2/3 innings pitched in 2019 was the second-highest total of his career, and he finished second in NL Cy Young Award voting after posting a 2.32 ERA, 6.79 K/BB rate, and 8.0 K/9.

While $80MM is a sizeable expenditure for any team, Ryu’s deal is one the Blue Jays could somewhat comfortably afford to make, given their lack of long-term payroll commitments.  By this token, it could be argued that the Jays could have made another splashy signing (or trade) beyond just Ryu, though the counter to that argument is that Toronto perhaps still wants to see what it truly has in its young players.  As promising as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio are, the quartet has combined for only 418 Major League games — the four players have only appeared in the same starting lineup eight times.  Between this lack of experience and the fact that the likes of Teoscar Hernandez, Danny Jansen, or Rowdy Tellez have yet to break out, it makes sense that the Jays didn’t want to go overboard in building around a foundation that may not yet be entirely stable.

That said, some extra willingness to build was required given the escalating prices in free agency, and the simple fact that the 2019-20 offseason moved at a much quicker pace than the previous two winters.  As noted by Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi back in February, GM Ross Atkins essentially changed tactics midway through the offseason, as failing to adapt to the changing marketplace would have left the Jays without the pitching help they so badly needed.

Ryu was the biggest addition, though Tanner Roark brings some more innings-eating veteran experience to the rotation.  The Blue Jays also went overseas to add pitching, signing Shun Yamaguchi to a two-year contract after the right-hander was posted by the Yomiuri Giants.  At the time of the COVID-19 shutdown, Yamaguchi was being targeted for the bullpen, though it could have been something of a long relief or swingman role to keep him stretched out for possible starts.

Between these three signings and Chase Anderson (acquired in a trade with the Brewers in early November), Toronto’s pitching situation looks far more solid than it did last season, when injuries and inexperience resulted in the Jays getting just 711 1/3 innings from their starting pitchers, the third-lowest total in baseball.  None of Roark, Anderson, Yamaguchi, and Matt Shoemaker are controlled beyond the 2021 season, leaving a lot of flexibility within the rotation for younger pitchers to eventually move into the picture — most prominently, one of the sport’s best pitching prospects in Nate Pearson.

Yamaguchi’s availability in the bullpen helps strengthen a relief corps that also added Anthony Bass, A.J. Cole, old friend Marc Rzepczynski, and Rafael Dolis to the mix.  Dolis was the only MLB signing of that trio, inking a $1MM deal to return to North America after four dominant years pitching out of the Hanshin Tigers’ bullpen.

Perhaps the biggest reliever-related headline for the Blue Jays was a move that didn’t happen, as Ken Giles is still in a Toronto uniform.  The closer was widely expected to be dealt over the winter, though a lack of early interest seemed to carry through the entire offseason.  It could also be that the Jays changed their view on trading Giles after the Ryu signing raised expectations for a competitive season, or at worst, the club figured they could still move him at the trade deadline.

Now, of course, that plan has been entirely altered since we don’t know when a 2020 trade deadline could fall, or whether the 2020 season will be played whatsoever.  If the season is indeed cancelled, Giles will still be eligible for free agency as scheduled, leaving the Jays in danger of losing him for nothing.  (The Jays could receive a draft pick if Giles rejected a qualifying offer, or Giles could even accept a QO and stay with Toronto, though it remains to be seen if the club would want to pay Giles such a hefty one-year salary.)

Given the flirtations with the likes of Lindor and Moustakas, Travis Shaw could certainly be seen as an underwhelming choice as the Blue Jays’ most notable new position player.  Shaw is coming off a terrible 2019 season, though the Jays are betting that year was an aberration considering Shaw’s track record over his previous four MLB campaigns.  Shaw will essentially replace Justin Smoak as the regular first baseman, though Shaw’s ability to play third base and second base gives manager Charlie Montoyo the ability to shuffle his lineups.

Multi-position versatility was a stated priority for Atkins heading into the offseason, which also led to Joe Panik being brought aboard to add depth at shortstop and second base.  Except for Tellez, the catchers, and maybe Guerrero (who could yet eventually be a first base option), every player on the Blue Jays’ projected roster can play multiple positions, be it an outfielder who can play at least two positions on the grass, or a player like Biggio who could be used all over the diamond.

The catch, however, is that while the Jays have several players who can handle multiple positions, it’s still an open question as to how many can play well at any position.  Shaw and Randal Grichuk are coming off rough seasons, while Panik and Brandon Drury have been replacement-level players or worse in each of the last two seasons.  As mentioned earlier, the developmental path of so many of Toronto’s young players is still an unknown, so it doesn’t create much of a safety net if the veterans all continue to struggle.

Of the bigger-name position players on the Jays’ target list, Moustakas is perhaps the one that seemed reasonably closest to becoming a reality.  Grandal would likely have only been heavily pursued if the Jays had found a good offer for Jansen or Reese McGuire, Toronto’s plan to have Gregorius play second base might not have appealed to the long-time shortstop, and there isn’t much evidence that the Jays’ pursuit of Lindor amounted to anything besides due diligence.  (Acquiring Lindor would have also significantly accelerated the Blue Jays’ timeline for contention, since Lindor is only under contract through the 2021 season.)

With Moustakas, however, the Jays were reportedly the second-highest bidder, offering the infielder a three-year, $30MM deal that far surpassed the one-year deals Moustakas had been forced to settle for in the last two free agent markets, and also topped MLBTR’s projected two-year, $20MM contract for him this winter.  Considering the Reds went above and beyond all expectations to sign Moustakas to a four-year, $64MM deal, it’s hard to fault the Blue Jays for being outbid by such a massive splurge.  Still, if not Moustakas himself, the Jays’ lineup would look a lot more solid had one more proven, above-average hitter been brought into the mix to augment the still-developing younger hitters, rather than just hoping that Shaw can bounce back.

2020 Season Outlook

If some games are played in 2020, there’s a chance a shorter season could be to the Jays’ benefit in terms of actual on-field results.  Theoretically, a younger roster could be more suited to handling a compacted schedule with many unusual aspects (regular double-headers, games in minor league or Spring Training parks, etc.) that could be a harder adjustment for a veteran team that is more set in its ways.  Also, while it didn’t seem likely that the Blue Jays could hang with the Yankees or Rays over 162 games, keeping pace over something like an 81-game sprint isn’t as far-fetched.

With so many question marks still surrounding the roster, however, the threat of a shortened or altogether canceled 2020 season is particularly tough on the Blue Jays.  Not only could all of these questions be kicked down the road into 2021, a reduced or lost season also wipes out invaluable development time for youngsters at both the MLB and minor league levels, and erases the year that the Jays could have most directly counted on as a prime Ryu season.

One significant question that was answered this offseason is that we now have evidence that the Jays are willing and able to make an expensive impact in the free agent market, which was a criticism often directed by Toronto fans towards both club ownership and the Shapiro/Atkins regime.  It would have been easy for the front office to respond to the market’s rising price tags by stepping back and making only lower-level signings since the Jays were still in a rebuild phase, yet the team felt the time was right to make the big strike.  The Ryu contract is a hint at future aggressiveness down the road, when the Blue Jays are even better positioned to challenge for the postseason.

How would you grade the Blue Jays’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Blue Jays' offseason moves?
B 59.26% (1,392 votes)
C 20.99% (493 votes)
A 13.67% (321 votes)
D 3.45% (81 votes)
F 2.64% (62 votes)
Total Votes: 2,349

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