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Yoenis Cespedes Rumors: Mets, Yankees, Nationals

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We’ve heard that the Mets aren’t particularly interested in another protracted dalliance with outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, with GM Sandy Alderson saying that the team would prefer to know its course with regard to the superstar before the end of the Winter Meetings in early December. That’s still a month away, of course, but it certainly seems reasonable to expect that Cespedes’s market will move more quickly this offseason than it did last. Still, there’s no single, clear suitor (beyond the incumbent Mets) for his services, so there’s plenty of room for the market to develop — with trades and other signings potentially having a role in how it all shakes out.

Here are a few notes on Cespedes from the GM Meetings:

  • There’s no question that the Mets want to retain Cespedes, as MLB.com’s Barry Bloom reports. Alderson said today that the team would prefer to sign him, “all things considered,” though the question remains just how much cash (and how many years) the organization will put on the table. New York has already reached out to Cespedes’s camp to begin talks, as he weighs a qualifying offer that he’s certain to reject. “Oh yeah, we’ve reached out to him,” Alderson said. “We expect to have more conversations with them in the next few days. His agent will be out here somewhere. I’m sure you’ll talk to him. It all remains to be seen what direction it takes.”
  • Somewhat intriguingly, there’s another New York team that has expressed interest, though it’s far from clear how serious a pursuit should be expected. The Yankees have spoken with Cespedes’s representatives at CAA, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, though GM Brian Cashman said that the expectation is the team will utilize internal options in the outfield. And the Yanks have also reached out to a variety of other potential free agent targets, including departing Blue Jays power hitter Jose Bautista. All told, it doesn’t seem as if there’s any particular reason to think the Bronx Bombers are readying to move on either veteran slugger, though Cashman did note that “things could change if we move money.”
  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo also fielded questions on Cespedes, saying that the outfielder “improves any team he plays for,” as Joel Sherman of the New York Post was among those to report. Rizzo noted that the club feels comfortable with Bryce Harper in center and Trea Turner at short, which could open the door to another pursuit of Cespedes — who spurned the Nats last winter to take a deal with the Mets that allowed him to return to the market this winter. As Sherman notes, the Nationals have strategic reasons to drive up the bidding on Cespedes, even if they aren’t truly keen on spending big to add him, but it also seems clear that the organization has a realistic interest in pursuing him at the right price.

Edwin Encarnacion Not Expected To Strike Early Deal With Blue Jays

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An early push by the Blue Jays to re-sign veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion does not appear likely to come to fruition, according to reports from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. With Encarnacion drawing strong interest elsewhere, it appears he’ll allow his market to develop before reaching a decision.

That’s not a terribly surprising outcome, all things considered. Toronto never has seemed quite willing to commit to a price tag that would prevent the soon-to-be 34-year-old first baseman and designated hitter from gauging interest from other organizations. That seemed to be the case last spring, Heyman notes, and may still hold true now. While Toronto is amenable to a three-year guarantee or “perhaps even the right four-year deal,” he says, it appears as if one or more alternative organizations may be willing to do more.

It’s too soon to rule out a return to the Jays,, as general manager Ross Atkins spoke glowingly of Encarnacion and made clear the team still hopes to retain him. But as Davidi writes, the GM also hinted that the organization may have little choice but to look elsewhere. When asked about the possibility of an early determination with regard to Encarnacion, he responded:

“Any team would prefer that. In any negotiation, in any deal, the quicker you have clarity, the sooner you consider your alternatives one way or the other. … [T]he challenge becomes knowing whether those pieces are going to be here or not. Offers often times come on and off tables.”

Though Atkins declined to address Encarnacion’s situation directly, his comments certainly suggest that the sides are set to explore alternatives. That is the case for Encarnacion and his reps, per Davidi, who says they “began to engage with other clubs” today. For the team, Atkins noted that there are “a lot of potential alternatives” under discussion at the moment, and certainly there are a wide variety of possibilities on a market that’s full of lumbering sluggers. We heard earlier today that the Jays were one of several teams to put out feelers to Kendrys Morales, and other options could also be explored.

Blue Jays Had Interest In Boone Logan At Deadline

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  • Morosi also tweets that left-hander Boone Logan is generating some early interest, and FanRag’s Jon Heyman hears the same. Morosi notes that the Blue Jays and Giants both had interest in Logan at the non-waiver trade deadline this summer, though the Rockies elected not to trade him. Toronto, in particular, could probably use some left-handed relief help, as it was an area of weakness for them for much of the 2016 and they now stand to lose Brett Cecil to the open market. The 32-year-old Logan is probably best deployed as a lefty specialist, which may limit his market a bit, but he excels in that area. Logan held lefties to a putrid .142/.222/.255 slash in 2016 and a .225/.349/.254 slash in 2015.

Royals, Yankees, Jays, Red Sox Interested In Kendrys Morales

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1:45pm: Royals general manager Dayton Moore tells MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan that he has “definite interest” in re-signing Morales this winter as well (Twitter link). The Royals, of course, are facing some potential payroll constraints, so it’s not clear that they’d be able to fit Morales into the budget.

9:41am: The Yankees have reached out to the representatives of free agent DH Kendrys Morales, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The 33-year-old would be seen as an option for New York in the event that the club deals catcher and DH candidate Brian McCann this winter.

There’s more interest from the AL East, too, according to the report. Both the Blue Jays and Red Sox have also put out early feelers on Morales, who was not issued a qualifying offer by the Royals and can therefore be signed without sacrificing a draft pick. Those organizations have also been tied to Edwin Encarnacion, who’ll certainly require a much larger contract, so Morales looks to represent something of an alternative.

The lack of a qualifying offer certainly enhances the appeal of Morales, who is more or less a pure DH but does deliver some flexibility as a switch-hitter. Despite a lull early in 2016, he ended his two years in Kansas City with a robust .277/.344/.476 batting line and 52 home runs over 1,257 plate appearances.

While there are plenty of alternative sluggers available in free agency — some of a more premium variety, others on par, and still others with less appeal than Morales — it seems that he is a popular early target. That’s certainly a good sign for the veteran, who is expected to command a multi-year contract once again. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicts that Morales will land at $26MM over a two-year commitment. That would represent a solid raise over his most recent contract, which was signed on the heels of a much-less-encouraging platform.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

With some major core players eligible for free agency, the Blue Jays may need some significant retooling to make another postseason trip.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart; Blue Jays Payroll Overview

Since the start of the 2010 season, Jose Bautista has hit more home runs (249) than any player in baseball, while Edwin Encarnacion (231) ranks third on that same list.  Having both of these prolific bats together on (what turned out to be) very team-friendly contracts has been one of the key factors behind the Blue Jays’ recent success, but this winter, it seems very likely that the Bautista/Encarnacion era will come to an end.

Naturally, the Jays’ decisions on the two cornerstone players will shape the rest of their offseason decision-making.  Re-signing both seems very improbable, as the Jays would be committing millions to two players in their mid-to-late-30s when the team already has a pretty expensive and aging roster.  Re-signing one of the two is a possibility, and initial signs are that Encarnacion may be the prime target. In his case, he said he was “really disappointed” by his Spring Training extension talks with the club, as the Jays reportedly only offered him two guaranteed years with multiple vesting options for further seasons.  That offer seemed strangely low at the time and it looks downright meager compared to what Encarnacion will earn in the wake of a 42-homer, .263/.357/.529 season.  Though Encarnacion will be 34 on Opening Day, he has put himself in line to easily land a four-year guarantee with a $20MM+ average annual value, and perhaps one enterprising team could even go as high as five years.

Bautista, on the other hand, will require a much lower price tag but also carries far more question marks.  Bautista hit .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers over 517 PA; good numbers for most players, but a big step backwards from his usual offensive output.  While he was still productive at the plate, his baserunning (as per Fangraphs’ BsR metric) and defense (-9.3 UZR/150, -8 Defensive Runs Saved) nosedived, leaving him with an overall contribution of just 1.4 fWAR.  Injuries likely played a part, as Bautista had two lengthy DL stints due to a sprained knee and turf toe.  The 36-yeard-old has now suffered through three injury-shortened seasons in the last five years, and between his health history, age and declining defense, his future may lie as a DH/first baseman rather than as a regular right fielder.

GM Ross Atkins told reporters that the Jays had plans to speak to both players in the exclusive five-day prior to free agency (which expired about 13 hours ago), and both Encarnacion and Bautista were issued qualifying offers.  At the very least, the Blue Jays will receive first-round compensatory draft picks should Encarnacion and Bautista sign elsewhere, assuming they turn the QOs down.  (Encarnacion certainly will, and Bautista reportedly will do so as well, though there’s at least a minor chance he could opt for the one-year, $17.2MM offer and shoot for a healthier platform season in 2017.)

Left fielder Michael Saunders did not receive a qualifying offer, as Toronto’s other big position player free agent had a very rough second half of the season that overshadowed his All-Star caliber first half.  Retaining Saunders would give the Jays a much-needed left-handed bat to help balance out a very right-handed lineup.  If Encarnacion and Bautista both departed, Saunders could see more time at DH, which would improve the Jays’ outfield defense and also perhaps help Saunders stay fresh and productive throughout the entire year.

If all three hitters left in free agency, the Blue Jays would lose some serious pop but would also gain the opportunity to remake a somewhat one-dimensional lineup.  While Toronto finished ninth among all teams in runs scored in 2016, the club was rather an all-or-nothing offense, prone to extended cold streaks (such as down the stretch in September) when not hitting home runs.  The Jays were also a bottom-10 team in both contact rate and stolen bases, while finishing eighth in strikeouts and hitting into a league-high 153 double plays.

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Notes On Greg Holland’s Showcase

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Free agent righty Greg Holland took the hill for scouts yesterday as he sets the stage for his return to action. The former Royals closer missed all of 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he’ll play an interesting role in the market with multiple big-payroll clubs among those seeking power arms at the back of their respective bullpens. Despite the long injury layoff, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes rates Holland 23rd in earning power among free agents, noting that a wide variety of organizations could pursue him. Joel Sherman of the New York Post covered the showcase, and we’ve also heard additional reports about which teams were represented.

Here’s the latest:

  • The most important aspect of the appearance was Holland’s health, and Sherman writes that scouts came away feeling optimistic in that regard after seeing 35 pitches. Though the typically fireballing righty sat in the 89 to 90 mph range with his fastball, he’s obviously still building up arm strength. One scout explained that Holland worked with “good extension” in showing off his heater and ballyhooed slider, suggesting he’s ready to continue working back to his prior form.
  • Agent Scott Boras argued that his client, who’ll soon turn 31, represents a great value for teams unwilling or unable to sign top closers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon. He predicted a multi-year deal, with a two-year arrangement laden with incentives possibly making sense for all involved. It remains to be seen just how much cash teams will be willing to promise Holland, who had faltered in 2015 while pitching through the elbow problems that ultimately resulted in surgery. But the upside is undeniable: from 2011 through 2014, he compiled 256 1/3 innings of 1.86 ERA pitching with 12.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.
  • All told, about sixty scouts were on hand to watch, says Sherman, with about 18 clubs putting eyes on the righty. We had previously heard that the Giants, Red Sox, Rangers, and Yankees would be joined by the Twins in attendance. Sherman notes that GM Bobby Evans and a top scouting exec were on hand for the closing-needy Giants, with the Yankees also sending top talent evaluators. He also lists the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Phillies as organizations that sent reps. The Royals, too, were watching their former hurler, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets, as were the division-rival Tigers, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck (Twitter link). And the two top NL East clubs — the Nationals and Mets — were also intrigued enough to send scouts, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (via Twitter) and ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin.

Edwin Encarnacion Drawing Strong Early Interest

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Free agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion will hit the market in search of as many as five guaranteed years at as much as $25MM annually, his agent Paul Kinzer tells TSN. Clubs have already been in touch about the first baseman and DH, who ranks second on MLBTR’s list of the top fifty free agents.

As Kinzer notes, the market will dictate Encarnacion’s ultimate price. One major factor could be whether National League teams will join their American League competitors in pursuing him. “He proved this year that he is a solid first baseman and I think that will make him attractive to National League teams as well,” said Kinzer. Of course, it’s fair to wonder whether those organizations will believe he can man the position over the life of such a lengthy contract.

The agent opined that there could be 11 teams in pursuit of Encarnacion. We’ve already heard that the Blue Jays are making a play to retain him, and Kinzer tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford that he also sees the division-rival Red Sox as a great fit. Encarnacion loves hitting in Boston, says Kinzer, and also likes the idea of stepping into the sizable shoes of fellow Dominican David Ortiz. The Astros and Rangers are at least two other hypothetical landing spots, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports notes on Twitter.

It’s possible that things could move quickly, Kinzer also tells Bradford, with some teams having already shown a willingness to make an early splash. “Last year moved pretty quick on a lot of higher guys, so we’ll see,” he said. “The only thing this time is the collective bargaining agreement [defining the luxury tax threshold], how that works out.” Encarnacion, too, is ready to make a decision if the terms are to his liking. “If he feels comfortable and he feels like he’s treated fairly, he can pull the trigger fairly rapidly,” said Kinzer.

Since he’s obviously set to reject the Jays’ qualifying offer, any team signing Encarnacion will need to sacrifice a draft pick to add him — even Toronto, which would otherwise add a selection — but it’s certainly arguable that he’s a big enough piece that it won’t impact his earning power too significantly. Kinzer trumpets Encarnacion’s quiet but positive clubhouse presence, hard-working approach, conditioning and health. Teams will weigh all of these factors, along with his outstanding track record at the plate (.272/.367/.544 over his last five seasons), against his age and defensive limitations in deciding just how hard to push.

Blue Jays Making Push To Re-Sign Edwin Encarnacion

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The Blue Jays are making a push to re-sign slugger Edwin Encarnacion, reports Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. According to Davidi, the two sides have already had some “fruitful” contract discussions that have “given [Encarnacion] something to think about.” Davidi notes, too, that Encarnacion’s preference is to remain in Toronto, which obviously works in the Blue Jays’ favor. He does caution, however, that an agreement between the two sides is no sure thing, even though there’s apparently been some progress in negotiations.

The Jays extended a one-year qualifying offer to Encarnacion and teammate Jose Bautista earlier today, though there’s never a great chance that either — especially Encarnacion — would accept the $17.2MM pact for the 2017 season. While the QO can have an adverse effect on the market for some free agents, Encarnacion’s status as arguably the top available bat of the offseason makes it unlikely that he’d run into much difficulty even with the burden of draft pick compensation hanging over him.

The 33-year-old Encarnacion (34 in January) is coming off yet another excellent season at the plate, having slashed .263/.357/.529 with 42 home runs in 702 plate appearances. Since breaking out with the Blue Jays a half-decade ago, Encarnacion sports a robust .272/.367/.544 line with 193 home runs in 727 games — an average of 44 homers per 162 games played. It’s not clear whether Encarnacion’s camp would forgo a lengthier trip through free agency in order to quickly re-up with the Jays, but it’s worth noting, of course, that Encarnacion has yet to even be granted the right to negotiate with other clubs. The exclusive window for clubs to negotiate with their own free agents ends tonight at midnight, though, so Encarnacion could quickly get a sense of how Toronto’s current level of aggression stacks up with the rest of the market.

Ten Players To Receive Qualifying Offers

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Major League teams had until 5pm ET today to extend qualifying offers to their impending free agents — a decision that could significantly impact the market for a number of players this winter. For those unfamiliar with the process, the collective bargaining agreement stipulates that teams can make a “qualifying offer” to free agents that spent the entire season on the roster — midseason trades and signings are ineligible — if they wish to secure draft pick compensation for the loss of that player. The QO is a set one-year value determined by averaging the salaries of the top 125 players in the league. This year, the value of that sum comes to $17.2MM.

A player will have one week to survey the market and determine whether he wishes to accept the QO or reject in search of a more lucrative free-agent deal. If a player accepts the offer — something that has happened only three times since the system’s implementation in 2012 (Matt Wieters, Colby Rasmus and Brett Anderson) — that player is considered signed for the following season at $17.2MM. The contract is considered a free-agent deal, and as such, that player is not allowed to be traded without his consent until June 15.

If the player rejects a QO, he’s free to sign with any team for any amount (including the team from which he rejected the QO). However, whichever team signs a player that has rejected a QO must surrender its top unprotected pick in the upcoming draft (unless the player re-signs with the team that made the QO). The first 10 selections are protected, so those clubs would only be required to part with their second-highest pick. A team that signs multiple players that have rejected a QO continues to forfeit its top unprotected pick for each subsequent signing. The team that lost the free agent in question, meanwhile, will receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round. The order of comp picks, like the draft order itself, is determined based upon the previous year’s standings.

Last year there were a record 20 players to receive QOs (valued at $15.8MM based on 2015 salaries). There should be fewer this year, given the weak free-agent market, but there should still be a double-digit total of QOs extended. Here’s a list of who will reportedly receive qualifying offers thus far, and we’ll update this throughout the day and include the full list when the 5:00pm deadline has passed:

For a more in-depth explanation of the qualifying offer system, you can reference back to our post Explaining The Qualifying Offer System from last October. In the past, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has also spoken to both agents and general managers about the importance of avoiding the qualifying offer and the impact it has on teams’ decisions. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd, meanwhile, penned a pair of insightful posts in an effort to contextualize and assess the QO system and its purposes on the heels of the 2013-14 offseason.

Blue Jays Offseason Ideas

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  • With a number of first basemen and designated hitters on the free agent market, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith argues that the Blue Jays could be in no rush to fill the potential hole left by Edwin Encarnacion.  Since the Jays can offer a spot on a contender and playing time in a hitter-friendly ballpark, they’re an attractive option for many 1B/DH types, which presents the possibility of Toronto landing a big bat at perhaps a bargain price.  Nicholson-Smith also posits that the Jays could pursue Ian Desmond, Steve Pearce or Sean Rodriguez to fill their need for versatility.  Among more outside-the-box ideas, Nicholson-Smith suggests the Jays could try to acquire J.D. Martinez from the Tigers, or take advantage of the thin pitching market by listening to offers on “anyone this side of Aaron Sanchez,” with Joe Biagini perhaps ready to step into the rotation if another starter is dealt.
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