Cafardo’s Latest: Ramirez, Upton, Gallardo, Chen, Ozuna
With the recent Hall of Fame voting out of the way, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe looks at the case for former Red Sox star Manny Ramirez. Obviously, his offensive performance was magnificent, although lousy defense sapped his overall value. With confirmed PED violations after the so-called Steroid Era, voters may find it hard to select Ramirez. He also had a prickly reputation with the phrase “Manny being Manny” coming to represent his often oblivious frame of mind.
Here’s more from Cafardo’s column:
- The Red Sox could consider signing free agent outfielder Justin Upton. Club president Dave Dombrowski is comfortable with a starting outfield of Jackie Bradley Jr., Mookie Betts, and Rusney Castillo, but there’s certainly risk involved with relying upon Bradley and Castillo. Either or both players could conceivably fail to produce at a league average rate. The Sox do have depth in the form of Chris Young, Brock Holt, and possibly Travis Shaw. However, Upton would give them a superstar presence in the middle of the lineup, and he won’t have the same difficulty in adjusting to left field as Hanley Ramirez.
- Yovani Gallardo may be the next starting pitcher to sign. Scott Kazmir‘s three-year, $48MM contract is a potential comparable. The teams involved in his market are hoping for a bargain on a two- or three-year contract, per Cafardo. He sees the Orioles, Blue Jays, Pirates, Royals, and Cubs as the best fits.
- Fellow free agent starter Wei-Yin Chen has scared some teams away with a five-year, $100MM asking price. The Nationals and Cardinals “have taken a good hard look.” Chen, 30, can point to success in the always difficult AL East as justification for a nine-figure asking price.
- Ten teams have inquired about Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna, but Miami coaches Barry Bonds and Don Mattingly are campaigning to keep Ozuna. They believe they can shape Ozuna into a star player. While owner Jeffrey Loria is said to be the impetus behind the club’s attempts to trade Ozuna, it’s also plausible he would defer to his newly hired, high profile personnel.
- Some scouts still think there’s something left in Ike Davis‘ tank. The Mets‘ former top prospect has played for three teams over the last two seasons with exactly zero WAR in 666 plate appearances. Davis will likely sign a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training.
- The Tigers and Mets are monitoring the market for Yoenis Cespedes. Based on Cafardo’s report, it sounds like both clubs hope to pounce if a strong suitor doesn’t emerge.
- Meanwhile, Dexter Fowler could end up as a bargain. Cafardo predicts a three-year contract below the $31MM signed by Denard Span. He suggests the Rockies (if they make a trade) and Tigers as possible fits. Personally, I disagree with the valuation on Fowler. Like Span, he has a history as a high OBP, top-of-the-order hitter. The draft pick compensation tied to him is a deterrent, but he’s been much healthier than Span in recent seasons.
- Talks between Chris Davis and the Orioles may have a drop-dead date. While the Orioles prefer a big left-handed bat, they may dip into the market for Upton or Cespedes. Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is also a potential fit.
AL East Notes: Storen, Blue Jays, Red Sox
On Sunday morning, Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com attempted to put together a list of the 15 best position players in Orioles history. The task, he says, was even more challenging than when he ran down Baltimore’s top ten pitchers of all-time. Matt Wieters, who accepted the O’s qualifying offer this winter, earned a spot at catcher alongside Gus Triandos, a three-time All-Star in the late 50s and early 60s. Another current-day star, Chris Davis, only earned honorable mention at first base as he was situated behind Eddie Murray and Boog Powell. Davis has led the majors in home runs two of the last three years, but Dubroff says that “Murray’s excellence and Powell’s longevity force the issue.”
Here’s more out of the AL East:
- The Blue Jays’ acquisition of Drew Storen creates healthy set of roster options, John Lott of the National Post writes. Meanwhile, it doesn’t seem like Toronto’s new regime is done dealing. The Ben Revere–for-Storen swap marks the first major trade by Mark Shapiro & Co., but new GM Ross Atkins indicated that the team has had “hundreds” of discussions with clubs about potential deals. All told, Storen owns a 3.02 ERA in his 334 big league frames. He’s struck out an average of 8.6 and walked 2.6 batters per nine for his career, but his K rate jumped significantly last season.
- Major league teams continue to spend big in free agency, despite evidence that it is not necessarily working, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes. While the Red Sox are doing cartwheels about signing David Price to a mammoth $217MM deal this winter, MacPherson rightfully points out that Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval seemed like wise moves just a year ago. Now, Boston is saddled with both players at a combined $183MM after a disappointing 2015.
- Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com weighed the pros and cons of the Orioles losing their No. 14 pick to sign a free agent who would require draft pick compensation.
AL East Notes: Sanchez, Osuna, Gardner, Miller, Nova
The Blue Jays addition of Drew Storen will give the club the opportunity to stretch out Aaron Sanchez or Roberto Osuna as a starter, writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. Toronto turned to both Sanchez and Osuna as relievers out of necessity in 2015, but they have previously been viewed as starting pitcher prospects. As GM Ross Atkins notes, there aren’t many success stories of players transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation (Carlos Carrasco comes to mind). Atkins hypothesizes that differences in how pitches are used and developed in a one-inning role are to be blamed. While Storen does give the Blue Jays some depth in the bullpen, they probably can’t afford to remove both Sanchez and Osuna from the bullpen.
Here’s more from Toronto and their division rival Yankees:
- Even after adding Storen, Atkins continues to hunt for help in the bullpen and elsewhere on the roster, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca. “We haven’t let up for one second,” said Atkins. Acquiring additional bullpen depth would make it easier for the club to move one or both of Sanchez and Osuna out of the major league bullpen. They were linked to Fernando Rodney prior to the Storen trade.
- Chad Jennings of LoHud profiles three Yankees who have spent the offseason on the trade block. New York wanted to trade outfielder Brett Gardner for starting pitching. Gardner’s role with the club is largely redundant. However, the exorbitant price of pitching and slow developing free agent outfield market have made it difficult for GM Brian Cashman to line up a trade. Jennings figures the Yankees should hang onto Gardner unless he can return a “good, cost-controlled starter.”
- After high profile trades involving Craig Kimbrel and Ken Giles, the Yankees had some hope of receiving starting pitcher reinforcements for Andrew Miller. At this point, it appears as if the demand for elite closers via trade consisted of just two teams. While Kimbrel and Giles were dealt mostly for prospects, the Yankees had more interest in established talent. To me, this smells like a doomed proposition. Any team willing to pay top dollar for elite relief probably doesn’t want to trade away quality starting pitching. Now that the Yankees have added Aroldis Chapman, the plan may be to simply survive the early innings and let the bullpen slam the door. As such, Miller will probably stay put.
- The Yankees have also shopped Ivan Nova without finding a match. Nova is coming off a lousy, injury-addled season in which he posted a 5.08 ERA in 94 innings. He’s also in his final season of club control. Jennings views Nova as the best sixth starter on the roster, making him valuable depth. However, Jennings would happily trade Nova with a second player for a better pitcher.
Free Agent Notes: Rodney, Fowler, Davis
Here are the latest free agent rumors:
- The Diamondbacks have not been in contact with free agent reliever Fernando Rodney, writes Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com. A previous report had tied Rodney to the DBacks, Padres, Blue Jays, and Cubs. Since then, we’ve also learned the Padres are out. Presumably, Toronto’s interest ceased when they acquired Drew Storen from the Nationals. After a late-season renaissance with the Cubs, Rodney should still garner plenty of interest as teams nail down the final components of their bullpen. Meanwhile, Arizona may opt to rely on their wealth of internal options headlined by Brad Ziegler and Daniel Hudson.
- Dexter Fowler‘s market has been slow to develop, writes Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago. The center fielder is coming off his best season to date, although his OBP declined below his career average. Among contenders, Levine figures that only the Rangers, Mariners, Indians, White Sox, and Cubs are a fit (he also lists the Nationals, but the Ben Revere trade likely nullifies that pick). Both Chicago clubs could benefit from installing Fowler in center field. A reunion with the Cubs would require a trade of right fielder Jorge Soler – probably for high quality pitching – and it would allow Jason Heyward to return to his natural position of right field. Levine also figures that White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton is better suited for a corner outfield role.
- The Orioles have not made any progress in talks with free agent Chris Davis, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. Baltimore made a seven-year, $150MM offer earlier in the offseason and has seen no reason to submit a higher bid. While agent Scott Boras is selling Davis as an outfield option, Encina views him purely as a first baseman. To this point, no other serious suitors have emerged for Davis. Encina also cites reports that the Orioles are in on pitcher Yovani Gallardo, but those talks may depend on Davis.
Rosenthal On Chen, Marlins, Dickey, Lucroy
Here’s the latest from FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal:
- The Marlins have interest in Wei-Yin Chen despite owner Jeffrey Loria’s previous disagreements with Chen’s agent Scott Boras, Rosenthal writes. Chen’s cost could be an issue for the Marlins, but the Fish need a starter and have a protected first-round pick, and Rosenthal writes that Loria wants to make the team “as competitive as possible” for Don Mattingly’s first season as manager. As Rosenthal notes, Chen is the best free agent starting pitcher left on the market.
- A report today indicated the Blue Jays could trade R.A. Dickey, but the Jays have not yet had discussions about that, and sources tell Rosenthal the Jays might be disinclined to deal Dickey because of the reliable innings he provides. The Jays’ series of going-for-it trades last year depleted their pitching depth (with Daniel Norris, Jeff Hoffman and others heading elsewhere), but a starter like Dickey who’s capable of pitching 200-plus innings can help them paper that over.
- The Brewers continue to discuss trades involving catcher Jonathan Lucroy, Rosenthal writes. Lucroy isn’t coming off his best season, but his highly favorable contract (in which he’ll receive just $4MM in 2016 and $5.25MM or a $250K buyout in 2017) still makes him an attractive trade target. The Brewers could be inclined to trade Lucroy sooner rather than later, since the difficulty of learning to work with a new group of pitchers makes it tricky for catchers to go from team to team once a season has already begun.
Blue Jays Notes: Storen, Osuna, Saunders
Earlier this afternoon, we checked in with the Nationals to hear about the Ben Revere / Drew Storen trade from their perspective. Also this afternoon, new Jays GM Ross Atkins and Storen spoke to the media about the deal.
- Atkins says the team will be flexible at closer, Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets. The team isn’t yet committing to either Storen or Roberto Osuna to close games. Osuna, of course, was quite successful in his rookie season in 2015, posting a 2.58 ERA, 9.7 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 while saving 20 regular season games.
- According to Atkins (via Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star on Twitter), one factor in the deal was that it allowed the Jays to “better maximize” their roster. The Jays felt that both Revere and Michael Saunders were “everyday players,” and while they didn’t mind having depth in the outfield (with Revere and Saunders potentially joining a group of outfielders that included Jose Bautista, Kevin Pillar and Dalton Pompey), they felt they could deal an outfielder for additional pitching.
- The team feels that Saunders, who missed much of the 2015 season with knee trouble, will be ready to go at the beginning of Spring Training, Kennedy tweets. “We feel great about him,” says Atkins.
- Storen says he would have been fine remaining in Washington, but he’s excited to be headed to Toronto, James Wagner of the Washington Post tweets. Via John Lott of the National Post (on Twitter), Storen says he struggled down the stretch last season with getting enough rest between outings, and feels he would be fine if placed in a setup role, as long as he has enough days off.
Blue Jays Could Consider R.A. Dickey Trade
The Blue Jays could consider trading R.A. Dickey, Jeff Blair of Sportsnet.ca and Sportsnet 590 tweets, citing a scout. Dickey has been a reliable part of the Jays’ rotation over the past three seasons, throwing over 200 innings in each, and the Jays exercised his $12MM option after the season. While Dickey is no longer the ace he was with the Mets, the 41-year-old knuckleballer remains effective in his old age, posting a 3.91 ERA last season.
With the additions of J.A. Happ and Jesse Chavez this offseason, though, the Jays have six potential starting pitchers (also including Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada and Drew Hutchison), and they will also have to decide whether talented 23-year-old Aaron Sanchez has a future in the rotation. “It’s tough because, if he’s in the bullpen this year, it’s tough to turn him back into a starter because he’s really still developing his secondary pitches,” says manager John Gibbons (via Sportsnet’s Nick Ashbourne). Moving Dickey could give the Jays’ rotation a bit more flexibility while allowing them to add talent elsewhere, either through the trade itself or through spending the additional money they would have available with Dickey’s salary off the books.
Nationals Acquire Ben Revere From Blue Jays For Drew Storen
The Nationals and Blue Jays have officially struck a deal that will send outfielder Ben Revere to the Washington and reliever Drew Storen to Toronto, as Jon Heyman first reported on Twitter. A player to be named later will also head to D.C., and the Nats will kick in cash sufficient to offset the differences in the players’ anticipated 2016 salaries, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets.
MLBTR projects Revere to earn $6.7MM this year in arbitration. He’s also eligible for one more season of arb control thereafter. Storen, meanwhile, projects at a $8.8MM salary in his final year of eligibility.
While it isn’t quite a blockbuster, this move certainly rates as a significant trade for both clubs. As I noted in breaking down the Nats’ offseason back in November, a deal along these lines between these two clubs has long made conceptual sense — though it’s also understandable that both wanted to explore other possibilities before pulling the trigger. Much like the deal that sent Jon Niese to the Pirates for Neil Walker earlier this winter, this trade involves two similarly-priced assets being exchanged as each organization seeks to address their respective needs.
For the Nats, adding a left-handed-hitting outfielder who is capable of playing center field has long been a priority. While there have been suggestions at times that the club might have looked for a more significant piece to build out its outfield, it ultimately settled on a solid option in Revere who can share time in center with Michael Taylor and spell Jayson Werth in left, potentially creating a three-man rotation for two slots that should function well alongside Bryce Harper. In some ways, he’s a faster, younger, lighter-hitting version of the just-departed Denard Span, though it’s certainly arguable that the former Nat had a better glove.
The team’s relationship with Storen had long seemed destined to end. After replacing him once in the closer’s role with Rafael Soriano, the Nats ruffled some feathers by adding Jonathan Papelbon down the stretch last year. Needless to say, that move blew up in spectacular fashion, and seemingly created some tension between the organization and its former first-round draft pick.
On the Jays’ side of the equation, Revere was something of a luxury. Acquired at the trade deadline last summer, his essential role can be filled by Michael Saunders, who missed all of last year but is expected to return to full strength in 2016. And Dalton Pompey also joins Kevin Pillar in the outfield mix (along with superstar Jose Bautista, of course).
By bringing in Storen, the Jays have added a big arm to the back of the pen without taking on a lengthy commitment. There’s no denying that the 28-year-old has struggled at times, but he’s also been dominant for lengthy stretches. Whether he’s serving in a set-up capacity in front of Roberto Osuna or even taking the 9th himself, there’s good reason to believe that Storen can be a valuable late-inning arm.
Of course, both players in this trade come with their share of demerits. Revere, 27, doesn’t hit for power or draw walks. Though he’s always made a ton of good contact and doesn’t strike out much, any dip in contact ability or speed could spell trouble. And he’s a mystery on the defensive side of the equation. After garnering strong defensive metrics at times with the Twins, Revere has looked lost at times on his routes and generally received quite poor ratings in recent seasons.
So long as he can get on base enough, though, Revere seems a good bet at least to function as a solid fourth outfielder. He’s still plenty young, and delivers serious value with his legs. He has 80 steals on the ledger over the last two years and is second only to speed demon Billy Hamilton in Fangraphs’ total baserunning value measure (BsR) over those seasons. Notably, Revere has also generally posted neutral platoon splits, though he was quite a bit more effective last year against right-handed pitching.
And Storen has been somewhat fickle on the mound, with his general excellence sometimes punctured with ill-timed lapses. It’s all but impossible to know whether that’s a genuine cause for concern or just a sample blip, but there is a perception that he’s faltered in the brightest lights. Of course, he’s also locked up 95 saves, so it isn’t as if he’s a stranger to succeeding in high-leverage spots.
All told, Storen owns a 3.02 ERA in his 334 big league frames. He’s struck out an average of 8.6 and walked 2.6 batters per nine for his career, but his K rate jumped significantly last season. Storen’s average fastaball velocity trended up, topping 94 mph for the first time since 2012, and he got big results with his slider. He ended the season with a 12.2% swinging-strike rate that was the second best of his career. On the other hand, Storen also put up wider-than-usual platoon splits.
There are broader impacts here, too. For one thing, it now seems rather unlikely that the Nats will re-enter the outfield market. The move seemingly takes them out of the running for Gerardo Parra and would make a play for Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes seem even more remote. On the other hand, Washington could still stand to add to the bullpen and has been rumored to be considering moves in the starting staff as well. The Jays seem less likely to tinker at this point, though making a bullpen upgrade without taking on more salary could in theory open some creative options.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Nationals, Blue Jays Nearing Swap Of Ben Revere For Drew Storen
9:20pm: The Nationals and Blue Jays are nearing a deal that would send Revere to D.C. in exchange for Storen, Heyman reports on Twitter.
9:13pm: Washington’s interest is “very strong,” Heyman tweets, who says it is indeed “possible” that Storen could be a key piece in a trade scenario. The Jays are looking to add to their relief corps in a deal involving Revere, per the report.
8:57pm: The Nationals are at least considering making a play for Blue Jays outfielder Ben Revere, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. Washington has long been said to be seeking a center-field-capable outfielder, especially one that swings from the left side.
Obviously, Washington just saw precisely such a player — incumbent starter Denard Span — leave by way of free agency. It never seemed there was much of a chance of a reunion, particularly after the Nats decided not to make him a qualifying offer.
Revere, 27, is projected by MLBTR to earn a healthy $6.7MM through arbitration this year and can be controlled for another season thereafter through the arb system. He’s coming off of his best overall season at the plate as a big leaguer, having posted a .306/.342/.377 slash over 634 plate appearances split between the Phillies and Blue Jays. Revere rarely strikes out, but also doesn’t walk much at all, making him highly dependent on sustaining a high batting average — which he’s done by making loads of solid-enough contact and then turning on the jets.
Of course, Revere’s biggest assets are his legs. Not only has he swiped eighty bags over the past two years, he’s also been second in all of baseball in total value on the basepaths in that span. Curiously, though, he’s seen his defensive valuations plummet despite his obvious athleticism. Revere rated as a well-above-average outfielder during his last two years with the Twins, but has ranged between below average and rather awful over his three most recent campaigns. Poor routes have often been cited as an explanation, though it remains curious that Revere was able to draw high marks from metrics previously.
Obviously, any effort to add Revere would require the Nats to dangle something appealing to the Blue Jays. Toronto certainly seems to be in a position to ship him out, as the team could rely upon players such as Kevin Pillar, Michael Saunders, and Dalton Pompey to occupy center and left. But sacrificing that depth, after having given value to get Revere last July, would surely come at a price.
One concept that I’ve seen floated as a hypothetical possibility would be to structure a swap around Nationals reliever Drew Storen. He’s projected to take home $8.8MM via arbitration before hitting the open market after the season, and Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post tweeted today that he’s still very much available.
There are certainly other ways to imagine a deal coming together, depending on the respective motivations of each team to move these not-inexpensive pieces, but the pen is one area that the Jays could stand to upgrade. And the concept of exchanging players with roughly similar salaries often holds appeal. (Consider, for instance, the recent Jon Niese–Neil Walker swap or the Nationals’ own deal last year sending Tyler Clippard for Yunel Escobar.)
Arbitration Breakdown: Josh Donaldson
Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
The reigning Most Valuable Player of the American League enters his second year of arbitration eligibility due for a healthy raise on the $4.3MM he earned in his award-winning season. Josh Donaldson hit .297 with 41 home runs and 123 runs batted in 711 plate appearances, with an All-Star appearance and a Silver Slugger Award to add to his MVP honors.
It was the third baseman’s first year with the Blue Jays after a solid career in Oakland, and he certainly made a great impression on his new employers. Now, they will have to pay up in his second year of arbitration. Our model and several knowledgeable sources have confirmed that after the first year of arbitration eligibility, most players’ cases are treated as raises based almost exclusively on the previous year’s statistics. This helps explain why the model projects that Donaldson will receive a $7.7MM raise to a total of $12MM, which would be a record raise for a second-time eligible player.
The model’s projection of a record raise seems appropriate. The current record belongs to Chris Davis in 2014, who did not win an MVP Award when received a $7.05MM raise. Davis did out-homer Donaldson, 53 to 42, and had 138 RBIs — 15 more than Donaldson — as well. But, Donaldson had a higher average, .297 versus .286, and played a harder defensive position (third base versus first base) and is known for his excellent defense. While defensive performance usually does not matter much in arbitration cases (other than position played), I believe that Donaldson should be able to use his defense and his hardware to argue that he should have a bigger raise than Davis did– probably something in line with the $12MM projection, I would guess.
The last hitter to enter his second year of arbitration eligibility after winning an MVP Award was five years ago, when Josh Hamilton earned a $5.5MM raise. Hamilton had hit .359 with 32 home runs and 100 RBIs, but in only 571 plate appearances. Donaldson’s 140 extra trips to the plate with nine more home runs and 23 more runs knocked in should help him argue for a much larger raise than Hamilton received on the heels of his MVP season in 2010. Even if Donaldson cannot effectively argue that his raise should be larger than Davis’ due to the power gap, he should have less trouble arguing that he is deserving of a bigger raise than Hamilton received five years ago.
Few other players seem likely to make better arbitration cases for Donaldson than Hamilton and Davis. As a result, I think the case will likely come down to an argument about whether Donaldson should get something like a $6MM raise to top Hamilton by a decent margin, or whether Donaldson should get a $7.5MM raise to set a new record beyond Davis. It’s unlikely that Donaldson out-earned the $12MM salary I have projected for him, but I think it is more likely than not that he is close to this range. If he cannot argue that his case is stronger than Davis, though, he might end up around $10.3MM — a hefty raise, to be sure, but a fair margin shy of the current record increase that our model currently projects.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.