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Cafardo On Arroyo, Kendrick, Braun, Cano

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Timing is everything in baseball and Joe Girardi is hitting the open market at the perfect time, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes.  The Cubs always saw landing Girardi as a longshot, but they'll give it another go this winter.  From the Yankees perspective, they'd be foolish not to lock Girardi up with a lucrative new deal, in Cafardo's opinion.  Few managers, he argues, could have survived the injuries that the Yankees were dealing with and kept them in the playoff chase in September.  If Girardi bails for Chicago or elsewhere, Cafardo suggests Don Mattingly as a candidate.  Of course, the Dodgers would have to fire him or work out a trade for that to happen.  Here's more from today's column..

  • Bronson Arroyo says he wants a three-year deal and he feels his time in Cincinnati is likely over. “I have no preference on where I want to pitch but I’ll certainly consider the team, their chances of winning, and all of that,” he said. “I feel I can pitch effectively at 37, 38, and 39 years old. I’ve never missed a start. Never been injured. I’m not a max-effort guy out there, so there’s no big-time wear and tear on me. I loved Cincinnati but I don’t think they’re in position to give me what I want.” Cafardo suggests the Blue Jays, Orioles, Brewers, Cubs, Giants, Pirates, Cardinals, and Dodgers as possibilities.
  • It's looking increasingly likely that Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick will be traded for pitching or prospects. The Royals need second base help and would have interest.  The Orioles may also be interested if they cut ties with Brian Roberts this winter.  The O's haven't decided what to do with Roberts just yet but they wouldn't go beyond a one-year deal to keep him. 
  • It has been suggested that the Brewers could trade Ryan Braun, but finding someone willing to take on his baggage and lucrative deal could be tricky.  “I don’t think he’s going anywhere. Someone would have to take a big chance and nobody’s doing that on PED guys, especially for that length of contract,” said one exec.
  • Bench coach Tony Pena is not likely to replace Girardi as manager if he goes elsewhere. “I don’t think anyone in our front office is even thinking about that,” said one Yankees official.
  • Many believe that the Dodgers won't be serious players for Robinson Cano, but things can change with an early exit from the playoffs.

AL East Notes: Girardi, Lester, Rays, Price, Janssen

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The Yankees have made a substantial offer to keep manager Joe Girardi, Andrew Marchand of ESPN New York reports. A source tells Marchand that Girardi could think about the offer through the weekend. "We are going to give him a real good reason to stay," says GM Brian Cashman. Rumors have connected Girardi to the Cubs' managerial job, which might be a possibility if he chooses to leave. The Nationals and Reds also have managerial openings that Girardi might find attractive. Girardi is currently under contract with the Yankees through the end of October. Here are more notes from the AL East.

  • Last offseason, the Red Sox and Royals discussed a possible trade involving Jon Lester and Wil Myers, Lester tells WEEI.com's Alex Speier. "[Royals manager Ned Yost] is actually a pretty good friend of mine. I flat-out called him one day and was like, 'Hey, what do you got on this?' He said, ‘Yeah, we’re trying to make it work,'" Lester says. One reason the trade ultimately didn't happen is that the Royals finally traded Myers and three other players to the Rays, the Red Sox's current ALDS opponent, for a package headlined by James Shields.
  • One assistant GM proposes that the Rays could trade David Price to the Dodgers for Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Julio Urias and Chris Withrow, Peter Gammons writes. That would give the Rays two very good hitting prospects in Seager and Pederson, a very young arm in Urias, and a big-league reliever in Withrow. MLB.com ranks Pederson and Seager the top two prospects in the Dodgers system, with Urias at No. 4.
  • The Blue Jays are "sure" to pick up their $4MM option on closer Casey Janssen, writes Shi Davidi of SportsNet.ca. Janssen is coming off a strong season, so the decision would seem to be an easy one. Davidi notes that Janssen would likely make twice as much on the open market, and win a multi-year deal to boot.

Blue Jays Outright Ricky Romero

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The Blue Jays announced that they have outrighted left-hander Ricky Romero and catcher Mike Nickeas to Triple-A Buffalo after the pair cleared waivers.

Romero, at one point, was considered the team's ace following a 225-inning effort that saw him post a 2.92 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 2011. After finishing 10th in the AL Cy Young voting that season, Romero returned to post a 5.77 ERA in 181 innings. Romero dealt with injuries in both knees and underwent elbow surgery following the 2011 season, which could explain the steep decline in his performance. He's twice been removed from the team's 40-man roster and has a combined 5.67 in 135 minor league innings from 2012-13.

Romero is owed $7.5MM in 2014 and again in 2015 after agreeing to a five-year, $30.1MM contract extension with the Jays back in August of 2010. Toronto holds a $13.1MM club option on Romero for the 2016 season which is all but certain to be declined barring a sudden turnaround.

Nickeas, 30, hit .166/.255/.251 in 200 plate appearances at Buffalo this season after coming to the Blue Jays from the Mets in last winter's R.A. Dickey blockbuster.

Arbitration Eligibles: Toronto Blue Jays

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Blue Jays are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

With big-time power and a solid .276 batting average, Rasmus finally showed the star potential that compelled the Blue Jays to trade for him in 2011, though an oblique strain knocked him out for a month.  His career-worst strikeout 29.5% rate portends a return to his low average days, but Rasmus will remain a major asset in center field.  2014 will be his contract year, and he won't turn 28 until August.  With free agency so close, it will be difficult to extend Rasmus for less than B.J. Upton money.

In his first full season in the bullpen, Cecil posted a 2.82 ERA in 60 2/3 innings and made the All-Star team.  His season ended a little early with an elbow injury.  The Jays have been willing to do small multiyear deals with players like this in the past, so if the injury is minor that could be possible with Cecil.

Arencibia continued to hit home runs, many of them in April.  However, his .227 on-base percentage was the worst for a player with at least 400 plate appearances since Rob Picciolo's .218 mark as a rookie shortstop for the A's in 1977.  FanGraphs suggests Arencibia was below replacement level overall this year, but it still seems someone would pick him up via trade prior to the December 2nd non-tender deadline.

Rogers moved into the Jays' rotation in June, posting a 4.89 ERA in 20 starts.  The hard-throwing 28-year-old righty is cheap enough to retain as a swingman.

Assuming Rasmus, Arencibia, Rogers, and Cecil are tendered contracts, the Blue Jays are looking at an estimated $11.2MM for four arbitration eligible players.

Josh Johnson Has Elbow Surgery; Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training

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Righty Josh Johnson underwent minor elbow surgery this morning to remove bone spurs, agent Matt Sosnick tells MLBTR.  Dr. James Andrews performed the procedure, telling Johnson he feels the discomfort caused by the spurs was the cause of his struggles with the Blue Jays this year.  No issues were found with Johnson's elbow ligament.  Johnson will be throwing in five weeks, and will be ready for spring training.

Johnson, 30 in January, is eligible for free agency for the first time this offseason.  His season in Toronto did not go as planned, ending in August with the elbow issue.  He made 16 starts, posting a 6.20 ERA despite a good strikeout to walk ratio.

Sosnick, who also represents free agent hurler Ricky Nolasco, tells MLBTR Johnson will absolutely consider signing with the Blue Jays if they do not make a qualifying offer.  Johnson loved playing for manager John Gibbons, and bought into the vision of GM Alex Anthopoulos.  A one-year deal with incentives seems likely for Johnson.

AL East Notes: Girardi, Feldman, Hammel, McLouth, Jays

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The Rays and Rangers will square off in a one-game playoff to determine the second American League Wild Card team tonight and finalize the postseason picture. Should the Rays come up short, it will mark the first time since 2006 in which the AL East has not been represented by two teams in the postseason (the Yankees, Twins, Tigers and A's were playoff teams that year). Here's more on the AL East…

  • There has been increasing speculation about whether or not Yankees manager Joe Girardi will return to the team in 2014 given his expiring contract, and ESPN's Buster Olney hears that the Yanks will have to significantly increase Girardi's $3MM salary in order to retain him (Twitter link).
  • There's mutual interest between Scott Feldman and the Orioles, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Kubatko thinks the O's will re-sign their midseason acquisition unless another team vastly overpays for him on the free agent market.
  • Within that piece, Kubatko also notes that free agent Jason Hammel's tenure with the Orioles is likely finished. He adds that if our own Tim Dierkes' two-year, $10MM projection for Nate McLouth is accurate, then McLouth is as good as gone, too.
  • The Blue Jays' payroll won't be moving back in 2014, GM Alex Anthopoulos told reporters yesterday, including MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm. Anthopoulos stated that the team was more likely to address its holes via trade than free agency, noting that this year's free agent crop is once again looking weak. Chisholm lists second base and starting catcher as areas of focus, and he also notes that Toronto is searching for at least one middle-of-the-rotation starter.

Retirement Notes: Helton, Johnson, Oliver, Konerko

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The season ended Sunday for 19 of baseball's 30 teams, many of which feature players who will not be back in 2014. Here are some notes on players whose careers might (or might not) be over.

  • Rockies great Todd Helton's illustrious career ended in Los Angeles, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports. Dodgers broadcaster recorded a tribute to Helton that played on the scoreboard before the game, and he received a standing ovation for his last plate appearance. "The last at-bat, I got a little emotional, but other than that, it's Sept. 29th and I'm ready to go home," Helton says. Helton finishes his 17-year career with 369 home runs.
  • Nationals manager Davey Johnson leaves the game with a 1372-1071 career record, writes Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Johnson will continue on with the Nationals as a senior adviser, although he's not expected to play a strong role in the organization.
  • Veteran lefty Darren Oliver ended his two-decade career with a perfect inning for the Blue Jays on Sunday, MLB.com's Evan Peaslee reports. "20 years — very few guys get to do that," Jays manager John Gibbons says. "Longevity in this business is hard to come by, but to do it for that long and be that effective until the very end that speaks volumes." Oliver, 42, also pitched for the Cardinals, Red Sox, Rockies, Marlins, Astros, Mets and Angels, and he had three separate stints with the Rangers. He finishes his career with a 4.51 ERA, 5.9 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 over 1,915 2/3 innings.
  • White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko still hasn't announced whether he's retiring, but he left Sunday's game against the Royals to applause, reports MLB.com's Scott Merkin. After a tough .245/.314/.356 season, it's unclear whether Konerko will be back, and if so, if that might be in a part-time role. Merkin notes that Konerko think for a month this offseason about whether or not to return in 2014. If he does want to return, the White Sox will have to decide whether to re-sign him.

Blue Jays Likely To Keep Lind, DeRosa, Janssen

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Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos told reporters that there's a "good chance" they'll exercise Adam Lind's option for 2014, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet (on Twitter).  Veteran Mark DeRosa is also in good position with his option and Casey Janssen is a lock to have his club option triggered.

It now looks like Lind will get $7MM to stay in Toronto next season rather than getting a $2MM buyout to ply his craft elsewhere.  The Jays also have options on Lind's services for 2015 ($7.5MM) and 2016 ($8MM). In 2013, Lind has hit .287/.356/.497, his best slash line since 2009. 

DeRosa's $750K option was expected to be triggered, but he could opt to retire rather than return.  The 38-year-old, who has a .229/.322/.398 slash line on the year, has earned nearly $30MM over the course of his career.  Meanwhile, Janssen's $4MM option is a slam dunk after turning in a 2.56 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 56 relief appearances.

Anthopoulos also expressed confidence that the Blue Jays' rotation can turn things around with "a starter or two" added this offseason, Davidi tweets.

East Notes: Oliver, Davis, Roberts, Mets, Nats

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This is the end of the line for Mariano Rivera and Andy Pettitte, but 2013 will also mark the final season for Blue Jays reliever Darren Oliver.  After 20 seasons, more than 1,900 innings and two near-retirements, the 42-year-old is ready to walk away from the game, writes Evan Peaslee of MLB.com.  Here's more out of the AL and NL East..

  • Slugger Chris Davis says that he's eager to sign a long-term extension with the Orioles, tweets Rich Dubroff of CSNBaltimore.com.  Davis, who owns a .286/.369/.634 slash line on the season, avoided his first go-round in arbitration last winter by agreeing to a $3.3MM, one-year deal. 
  • Orioles second baseman Brian Roberts says that he understands if the club opts not to bring him back for next season, writes Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com.  Roberts, who has been with the organization since 1999, has a has a .265/.341/.429 slash line with six homers over his last 41 games.
  • OF all the Mets' free agents, LaTroy Hawkins is the most likely to return, tweets Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.
  • Matt Williams refuses to comment on the possibility of him managing the Nationals, but people around him are more than happy to discuss his credentials, writes Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.  
  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo says that the next manager of the club will have some input on the roster, writes Bill Ladson of MLB.com.  In addition to Williams, bench coach Randy Knorr and third base coach Trent Jewett are considered strong candidates for the job.
  • Wally Backman, who was long rumored to be in line for the Mets' managerial job if Terry Collins was fired, is unlikely to join the coaching staff in 2014, tweets Andy Martino of the Daily News.  General Manager Sandy Alderson previously said that Backman would likely be offered a position inside the organization if Collins was brought back.

Rosenthal On Blue Jays, Rangers, Kemp, Francona

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Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports posted his latest edition of Full Count.  Here's a look at some of the highlights..

  • The Blue Jays constantly get calls on Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista and as always, they're willing to listen on anything.  The shortage of quality hitters out there could lead to better offers than they've gotten in the past, but their stance remains the same: neither one will be moved unless it leads to an improvement of their big league team.
  • Whether the Rangers are postseason-bound or not, their biggest need this winter will be a No. 3 hitter with Nelson Cruz hitting the open market.  The Marlins swear that they're keeping Giancarlo Stanton and Robinson Cano isn't a fit for a team that already has too many middle infielders.  One option could be Matt Kemp, if the Dodgers will part with him.
  • Indians manager Terry Francona has an out clause in his contract that will allow him to go elsewhere if the club fires GM Chris Antonetti, according to sources.  The length of Antonetti's contract isn't clear, but he has at least through 2014 and given their success, they're unlikely to make a GM change or lose Francona anytime soon.
  • A shakeup of the D'Backs coaching staff is imminent, the only question is how expansive it will be.  If Matt Williams bolts for a managerial job elsewhere, he could take a couple of coaches with him as well.
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