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KBO’s Kia Tigers Re-Sign Socrates Brito

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The Kia Tigers of the Korea Baseball Organization announced that they’ve re-signed outfielder Socrates Brito to a one-year deal, Jee-ho Yoo of South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency reports. Brito will be guaranteed $800K and can earn an additional $300K via incentives. That’s a raise for his second season with the Tigers, after he earned a guaranteed $600K with $300K of incentives in 2022. Brito is represented by the MAS+ Agency.

Brito, 30, enjoyed a strong debut campaign in the KBO this past season when he batted .311/.354/.494 with 17 home runs, 29 doubles, seven triples and a dozen stolen bases. He walked at a tepid 6.1% clip but also struck out in only 14.6% of his plate appearances.

A longtime Diamondbacks prospect, Brito has appeared in parts of four Major League seasons. He’s managed just a .179/.216/.309 slash in 218 plate appearances between the D-backs and Blue Jays, but Brito has been much more productive with regular playing time both in the KBO and in Triple-A, where he’s a lifetime .287/.339/.467 hitter in just 1960 plate appearances. He’s played primarily right field (5126 innings) and center field (4883 innings) in his professional career, with the Tigers opting to deploy him as their primary center fielder this past season.

If Brito continues to thrive against KBO pitching and play display the ability to play a competent center field, he’s young enough that he could yet engineer a big league return, but for now he’ll focus on replicating his 2022 success next season.

Eric Hosmer Won’t Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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In one of the most obvious opt-out decisions in recent memory, Red Sox first baseman Eric Hosmer will forgo his opportunity to return to the open market, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’s now locked into the final three years and $39MM of the contract, although the Sox are only on the hook for the league minimum in each of the next three seasons. The Padres are paying the remainder of Hosmer’s salary each season under the terms of the deadline trade that sent him to Boston.

The eight-year, $144MM contract Hosmer signed with San Diego prior to the 2018 season went south almost immediately. A then-27-year-old Hosmer posted a massive .318/.385/.498 slash and swatted 25 homers for the second consecutive season in 2017 — his final year with the Royals, who originally drafted him No. 3 overall in 2008. That led to the aforementioned eight-year deal for Hosmer, but his offensive production cratered in year one with the Friars, as he hit just .253/.322/.398 in his first year with the team.

Over the first five seasons of that nine-figure contract, Hosmer has been exactly average at the plate, by measure of wRC+. He’s hit .265/.325/.409 and averaged 18 home runs and 30 doubles per 162 games played. Hosmer hasn’t necessarily been a bad hitter, but his $18MM annual salary was promised to him under the assumption that he’d continue on as a well above-average, middle-of-the-order hitter.

That simply hasn’t been the case, due in large part to the fact that Hosmer’s bloated ground-ball rate with the Royals actually got even higher with the Friars. Since signing in San Diego, 56.5% of Hosmer’s batted balls have been hit on the ground — the fourth-highest mark among 315 qualified MLB hitters in that stretch. Perhaps the limitations on infield shifts that are coming in 2023 will help Hosmer in that regard, but his repeated inability to elevate the ball will continue to suppress his power output.

The Padres traded Hosmer and a pair of minor leaguers (Corey Rosier and Max Ferguson) to the Red Sox in exchange for former first-round pick Jay Groome, agreeing to pay Hosmer’s salary down to the league minimum as part of the contract. Hosmer also was granted a full no-trade clause as part of that deal, so he’ll have the final say on whether he’ll remain in Boston through 2025 unless the Sox ultimately release him. For now, he’ll give the Red Sox a cost-effective veteran first baseman or perhaps designated hitter, dependent on when the team is ready to give top prospect Triston Casas a full-time look in the big leagues.

Phillies Decline Option On Jean Segura

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As expected, the Phillies have declined their $17MM option on second baseman Jean Segura in favor of a $1MM buyout. Philadelphia also confirmed previous reports they’ve exercised their $16MM option on Aaron Nola and that Zach Eflin has declined his end of a $15MM mutual option.

The move could bring an end to Segura’s four-year tenure in Philadelphia. First acquired from the Mariners over the 2018-19 offseason in the deal that sent J.P. Crawford and offloaded Carlos Santana’s contract to Seattle, Segura has spent the past four years playing in the middle infield more or less every day. After one season at shortstop, he’s spent the last three years as the club’s primary second baseman. Segura has been a solid player on both sides of the ball, pairing adequate offense with slightly above-average defensive marks at the keystone.

The two-time All-Star doesn’t have huge power upside, but he consistently puts the ball in play. He’s never had a strikeout rate above the league average in his career, and this past season’s 15% mark is about seven points below the league figure. Paired with above-average speed and an all-fields approach that makes him tough to position against, Segura hit between .266 and .290 in all four seasons of his Phillies tenure. He doesn’t draw many walks, but the solid batting averages have propped up his on-base marks to a reasonable range.

Altogether, Segura put up a .281/.337/.418 mark in just shy of 1800 plate appearances with the Phils. He had a fairly similar .277/.336/.387 line this past season. A fractured finger suffered when he was struck by a pitch while trying to bunt kept him to just 98 games and 387 plate appearances, but he’s otherwise topped 125 games in every full season since becoming a regular with the Brewers in 2013.

There’s no question Segura’s a valuable player, but the hefty option price and modest buyout figure made that a net $16MM call for the Phils. That always looked to be beyond their comfort level, particularly since the club no longer seemed to consider him an option at shortstop. Now that he’s on the open market, however, Segura profiles as arguably the top second baseman available in a generally weak free agent class at the position. He’s not likely to find a $16MM salary for the 2023 campaign, but he could approach or top that overall guarantee over multiple years.

The Phillies could certainly circle back to look to reunite with Segura at some point. Philadelphia is likely to deploy Bryson Stott at one middle infield position after the former top prospect bounced back from an atrocious start to post a solid .276/.331/.404 mark in the second half. Stott could play either middle infield position, and the Phils figure to be mentioned as a prominent suitor for the star-studded free agent shortstop class that features Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. Matt Gelb of the Athletic indeed suggested this morning the Phillies are likely to explore the shortstop market, so it’s understandable they wouldn’t want to commit a lofty salary to cement Segura in the middle infield at the start of the offseason.

Red Sox To Decline Option On James Paxton; Paxton Yet To Decide On Player Option

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The Red Sox are declining their two-year, $26MM team option on left-hander James Paxton, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). The southpaw will now have to decide whether to trigger a $4MM player option to return to Boston or if he wishes to test the open market.

This was a no-brainer for the Red Sox, as the 6’4″ hurler missed the entire 2022 season. Paxton blew out his elbow during his first start of the 2021 season with the Mariners, requiring Tommy John surgery. That cost him the rest of the year, but the Sox signed him to a complex $10MM guarantee last winter. The deal paid him $6MM for this past season and guaranteed him the option to lock in a $4MM salary for next year if Boston didn’t trigger a pair of $13MM club options covering the 2023-24 campaigns.

It was a high-risk, high-upside dice roll for the Red Sox that hasn’t panned out. Boston had hoped Paxton would be able to return late in the season and contribute to a possible playoff push, but he suffered a Grade 2 lat tear while rehabbing and didn’t wind up throwing a big league pitch. With all of 1 1/3 innings pitched over the past two seasons, there was no chance the Red Sox would commit an additional $26MM on a bounceback.

Paxton’s now left with an interesting decision. He may be hard-pressed to find a $4MM base salary on the open market after two essentially lost seasons, but it’s possible he declines the option in search of an incentive-laden deal. Even if the 34-year-old doesn’t find an offer that quite matches the $4MM guarantee he’d be foregoing, he could seek out a deal that contains additional bonuses based on his number of innings pitched or starts in 2023 if he’s confident he’ll be healthy by Spring Training.

Cardinals Select Moises Gomez

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The Cardinals announced they’ve selected outfielder Moisés Gómez onto the 40-man roster, a move first reported by Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link). The decision prevents him from qualifying for minor league free agency in the coming days.

It’s the first stint on an MLB 40-man roster for Gómez. A Venezuela native, he first joined the professional ranks as an international signee of the Rays during the 2014-15 signing period. The right-handed hitter drew some prospect attention a few years later, with his power potential and decent corner outfield defense giving him a chance to be a part of the long-term Tampa Bay outfield. He appeared among Baseball America’s top 30 prospects in an always-deep Rays farm system every year from 2019-21, but he fell off the prospect radar with a dismal .171/.256/.309 showing in 76 Double-A games last year.

Tampa Bay declined to put Gómez on their 40-man roster after that season, and he qualified for minor league free agency as a player who’d spent seven years in the minors. The Cardinals gave him another shot, inking him to a non-roster deal and sending him to Double-A Springfield. Gómez had an incredible .321/.401/.705 showing, popping 23 home runs in 257 plate appearances in his second crack at the level. The Cards bumped him to Triple-A Memphis, where he added another 16 longballs with a .266/.340/.541 line in 244 trips to the dish. That didn’t get him onto the MLB roster during the season, but St. Louis will add him to the 40-man now to retain his long-term contractual rights.

It remains to be seen if Gómez will hold that roster spot all winter. He clearly has big power potential, with Guerrero noting his 39 cumulative homers led all minor league players this year. Questions about his hit tool lingered during his time in the Tampa Bay system, though, and those are still present in spite of his huge power showing. Gómez struck out in an immense 34.7% of his plate appearances this year, a rate not topped by any big league hitter with 500+ trips to the dish. Any further spike in whiffs against MLB arms would figure to leave Gómez on the roster bubble.

Whatever concerns the Cards front office may have about his swing-and-miss propensity, they clearly value Gómez enough not to let him walk at the start of the winter. His selection brings their 40-man roster tally to 37.

Twins Decline Options On Bundy, Archer, Sano

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The Twins announced this afternoon they’ve declined their respective options on Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer and Miguel Sanó. Minnesota also confirmed the previously-reported decision to exercise their option to retain starter Sonny Gray. None of those come as a surprise, as they were each easy calls for the Minnesota front office.

Bundy signed a $5MM guarantee last offseason, with the Twins rolling the dice he’d bounce back after an injury-plagued 2021 campaign in Anaheim. The deal came with an $11MM club option for 2023, giving them some extra contractual upside if Bundy righted the ship in the Twin Cities. The right-hander did stay healthy enough to take the ball 29 times and soak up 140 innings, but he didn’t put up the kind of numbers the front office had envisioned. Bundy managed only a 4.89 ERA with a well below-average 15.8% strikeout rate and a modest 9.7% swinging strike rate. He demonstrated excellent control, walking fewer than 5% of opponents,  but he didn’t miss many bats and surrendered 24 home runs (1.54 per nine innings).

A former fourth overall pick and top pitching prospect, Bundy has seen his velocity trend downwards as he’s battled injury concerns throughout his career. He averaged only 89 MPH on his four-seam this year, the first time his already pedestrian fastball has dipped below 90 MPH on average. Bundy, who turns 30 later this month, will collect a $1MM buyout and head back to free agency. He’s likely looking at one-year offers as a depth arm again, and it’s possible his next deal will come with a lower base salary than this’s year $4MM figure.

Archer was also an offseason signee, joining Bundy as part of Minnesota’s efforts to bolster the back of its rotation. He inked an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him a $2.75MM base salary and a $750K buyout on a 2023 option. He tacked on $3MM in incentives by making 25 starts this year, bringing Minnesota’s ultimate outlay to $6.5MM. Rather than trigger their end of a $10MM mutual option for next season, Minnesota sends the two-time All-Star back to the open market.

The 34-year-old posted a 4.56 ERA across 102 2/3 innings as Twin. That was his biggest workload since 2019, but Archer still had a pair of injured list stints due to hip and pectoral issues. When healthy, he posted a below-average 19.2% strikeout rate and walked batters at an elevated 11% clip. The righty still averaged 93 MPH on his heater, but this year’s 9.5% swinging strike percentage was his lowest mark since 2014.

Sanó, meanwhile, hits free agency for the first time in his career. Today’s move, while without suspense, looks as if it’ll officially close the books on his 13-year tenure in the organization. A high-profile amateur signee out of the Dominican Republic and subsequently one of the best prospects in the game, Sanó made his big league debut in 2015. He hit the ground running against MLB pitching, showcasing the massive raw power and lofty walk totals but huge strikeout rates that’d define his entire tenure in Minnesota.

The burly slugger looked capable of carrying a lineup at his best, including a .247/.346/.576, 34-homer showing in only 105 games in 2019. That earned Sanó a $30MM extension the following offseason, but that proved to be a misstep for the Twins. He posted only slightly above-average offensive numbers from 2020-21 and had an almost completely lost 2022 campaign. Sanó played in 20 games this year, putting up an .083/.211/.133 line in 71 plate appearances while battling persistent knee issues. The 29-year-old returned briefly from early-season knee surgery but spent the last two months on the IL.

Minnesota makes the easy call to pay Sanó a $3MM buyout rather than trigger a $14MM option on his services. He hits the market as a buy-low option for teams seeking first base help, with his huge power sure to get him some attention from another club.

Red Sox To Decline Tommy Pham’s 2023 Mutual Option

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The Red Sox won’t be exercising their end of Tommy Pham’s $12MM mutual option for 2023, Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe reports.  Pham gets a $1.5MM buyout on the option, and becomes a free agent.

It was a tough season for Pham, who may have received more attention for a fantasy football-related altercation with Joc Pederson than for anything he did on the field in 2022.  Pham hit .236/.312/.374 over 622 combined plate appearances with the Reds and Red Sox, with Pham coming to Boston at the trade deadline.  The acquisition seemed a little unusual given that the Sox were on the outskirts of the playoff race and had already dealt away Christian Vazquez in a seeming “seller” move, yet the Red Sox were hopeful that Pham and Eric Hosmer (picked up in another deal from the Padres) could help spark a late-season run.

Unfortunately, as Boston as well as in Cincinnati, Pham couldn’t translate his 89th percentile hard-hit ball rate into consistent production.  Pham didn’t help his cause with a 26.8% strikeout rate (his highest since the 2016 season) that included a lot of extra pitches chased outside the strike zone without any success.  His nine percent walk rate was still above the league average, yet well below the 90th-percentile average that Pham previously posted during his career.

Vision problems may have contributed to this down season, as Pham has been dealing with keratoconus (a cornea-thinning eye issue) for several years, but he told McWilliams that he believes he now has the problem corrected.  This is hardly the first or most serious health problem Pham has had to overcome, as he was the victim of a stabbing incident in October 2020.

Pham expressed an interest in returning to Boston, which may yet be a possibility given the uncertainty in the outfield picture.  Enrique Hernandez and Alex Verdugo look like the only regulars in place, and even Verdugo might not be a safe bet given some recent trade speculation.  It remains to be seen if the Red Sox might look to bolster the outfield with a star-level everyday regular, or if they could perhaps add a complementary or part-time veteran to allow for mixing and matching at-bats for Jarren Duran and Rob Refsnyder.  In general, the Sox could just be looking for more power in the outfield, which might not bode well for Pham given his modest slugging percentages in the last three seasons.

White Sox Exercise Tim Anderson’s Club Option, Decline Option On Josh Harrison

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TODAY: The White Sox officially announced that Anderson’s option has been exercised.  In addition, the Sox announced that they declined their $5.5MM club option on Josh Harrison, instead paying the veteran a $1.5MM buyout.

NOVEMBER 6: The White Sox intend to pick up shortstop Tim Anderson’s $12.5MM club option for the 2023 season, per Jon Heyman of the NY Post.

As recently discussed in Tim Dierkes’ Offseason Outlook, the decision to pick up Anderson’s club option was relatively easy, as the two-time All-Star has been a strong shortstop when healthy. However, Anderson has had a tough time staying on the field. Since 2019, the 29-year-old has dealt with a right ankle injury, two right groin injuries, two left hamstring injuries, and a sagittal band tear on his left middle finger. Furthermore, since 2019 Anderson has not appeared in over 123 games, being limited to 123 games in both 2019 and 2021, while only playing 79 games in 2022.

But when he’s on the field, he’s worth every penny. Over the past four seasons, Anderson has put up a collective .318/.347/.474 slash line, earning two All-Star appearances and a Silver Slugger. Additionally, during the past four seasons, Anderson has a wRC+ of 123 — the seventh-highest mark among shortstops. While Anderson put up a weaker .301/.339/.398 slash line in 2022, he reduced his strikeout rate to an extremely low 15.7% — 7.5% lower than his career mark.

With the top free agent shortstops likely commanding salaries of $30MM or greater, Anderson is a quality bargain for a White Sox team looking to return to playoffs after falling flat in 2022.

Zach Eflin Declines 2023 Mutual Option With Phillies

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Right-hander Zach Eflin has declined his end of a $15MM mutual option for the 2023 season, as per The New York Post’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).  Eflin will receive a $150K buyout and become a free agent for the first time in his career.

Since mutual options are almost never exercised by both player and team, Eflin’s decision isn’t surprising, even if his 2022 numbers were underwhelming.  He tossed only 75 2/3 innings last season, as a right knee contusion led to a stint on the 60-day injured list, and Eflin’s move to the bullpen after his return in September.  Building up to a full starter’s workload would have delayed Eflin’s return even longer, and he was able to contribute down the stretch (1.17 ERA in 7 2/3 IP) during the Phillies’ successful chase of a wild card berth, and then in the postseason.  Eflin had a 3.38 ERA over 10 2/3 playoff innings, appearing in 10 games, and earning a save in the Phillies’ series-clinching win over the Cardinals in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series.

While the bullpen stint was a nice silver lining to an injury-shortened year, Eflin and his reps at O’Connell Sports Management will certainly still market the right-hander as a solid starter.  Eflin doesn’t turn 29 until April, and he has a 4.16 ERA over 531 2/3 innings with Philadelphia since the start of the 2018 season.  While not a big strikeout pitcher, Eflin has posted consistently strong walk and hard-contact rates during his career, with particularly elite numbers in both categories in 2022.

Eflin’s age and track record line up well for a nice multi-year payday, though teams will also surely have some concerns about his injury history.  Eflin’s IL stint this season represented the latest in a series of knee-related issues, as he previously had surgery on his right knee in 2021, and on both knees in 2016.  It’s possible teams might look to include opt-out clauses, club options, or innings-based incentives clauses in any Eflin contract, but by that same token, an interested suitor might be able to full ahead by offering Eflin a more straight-forward deal with fewer conditional elements.

Depending on how the Phillies themselves feel about Eflin’s knee, a reunion could be possible.  Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez are slated as the top three in the Philadelphia rotation, with Bailey Falter penciled in for a larger role in 2023, and the likes of Hans Crouse and Michael Plassmeyer perhaps favored for innings until top prospects Andrew Painter and/or Mick Abel are ready for their MLB debuts.  A Phillies team that looks to contend for another pennant might prefer more veteran stability in the starting mix, which could lead to some talks with Eflin, fellow free agent Kyle Gibson, or perhaps some bigger-name free agents or trade targets.

Phillies Exercise $16MM Club Option On Aaron Nola For 2023

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The Phillies picked up their $16MM club option on Aaron Nola for the 2023 season, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link).  The option contained a $4.25MM buyout, but there was no chance the Phils weren’t going to retain the star right-hander for another season.

Drafted seventh overall in the 2014 draft, Nola made his MLB debut the very next season, and has gone on to become the gem of Philadelphia’s oft-maligned player development system.  Since the start of the 2018 season, no pitcher has thrown more innings than Nola’s 871 2/3 frames, and he has paired that durability with a 3.47 ERA.  (Even that number is a bit misleading, as Nola had a 3.26 SIERA in 2021 but only a 4.63 ERA due to some sheer bad luck.)  That five-stretch also saw Nola finish third in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2018, and he collected a seventh-place finish in 2020.

It seems likely that Nola will again appear on some Cy Young ballots this year, after his 3.25 ERA over 205 innings, a league-best 8.1 K/BB rate and 1.3 BB/9, as well as excellent strikeout, hard-hit ball, and chase rates.  Nola reached for the postseason for the first time in his career, starting five games during the Phillies’ run to their first World Series appearance since 2009.

Back in February 2019, Nola signed a four-year extension worth at least $45MM in guaranteed money.  With the option exercised, that deal is now a five-year, $56.75MM pact that has already been worth every penny for the Phillies.  The right-hander doesn’t even turn 30 until June, and the question now becomes whether or not the Phillies can sign Nola to another extension.  Locking Nola up to another long-term deal would be a good way of ensuring some more rotation stability, as Zack Wheeler’s contract is up after 2024 and Ranger Suarez is arbitration-controlled through 2025.  Top prospect arms like Andrew Painter and Mick Abel could debut in the majors as early as 2023, but just given the timing of the expiring contracts, Painter and Abel could be viewed more as possible in-house replacement for Wheeler rather than Nola.

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