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Grant Balfour, Rafael Soriano, Adrian Beltre, and Carl Pavano are the remaining free agents for whom teams will have to surrender draft picks. Like Victor Martinez, Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Jayson Werth, Scott Downs and Cliff Lee, Balfour, Soriano, Beltre and Pavano turned down offers of arbitration after being ranked as Type A free agents. This means their new teams will each have to surrender a high draft choice in 2011.

Those choices could come in the first round, the second round, or even later. Since the Tigers, Red Sox, White Sox, Nationals, Angels and Philllies have already surrendered their top picks, they would only have to surrender a second or third rounder to sign Balfour, Soriano, Beltre or Pavano. The 15 teams that finished the 2010 season in the lower half of the standings have protected first round picks, so the Rays, Red Sox and Twins will not receive a first round selection if a team like the Mariners or Royals signs their player.

At this point, only 11 teams could lose their first round pick. The Rockies, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Padres, Rangers, Reds, Braves, Giants, Twins, Yankees and Rays are the last remaining clubs that could lose 2011 first rounders. The Twins and Rays will not lose their picks if they re-sign their own players, however.

Here's what to expect as we prepare to enter 2011…

Boras Clients Will Find Homes

Last January, Matt Holliday, Adrian Beltre, Rick Ankiel, and Xavier Nady signed.  This offseason Scott Boras still has to place top clients Beltre and Rafael Soriano despite no signs of bidding wars breaking out.  He also has to find homes for Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Andruw Jones, Kevin Millwood, and Bruce Chen, among others.  A year ago, Damon talk dominated January and he didn't sign with the Tigers until late February.

Multiyear Free Agent Deals Will Dry Up

In January 2010, Holliday and Jason Bay came off the board in the first week.  Otherwise only three multiyear free agent deals were signed, as Danys Baez, Jose Valverde, and Joel Pineiro received two years.  Aside from the Boras guys, Adam LaRoche, Carl Pavano, and a handful of relievers are trying to find multiple years now.  Most free agents should expect one-year deals in the $1-5MM range, though.

A few interesting international signings may occur, for example Aroldis Chapman and Colby Lewis last January.

Big Trades Are Rare

Kevin Kouzmanoff was the biggest name moved last January.  In 2009 the Cubs dumped Jason Marquis and Felix Pie in separate deals, while the Mariners were active in deals involving David Aardsma, Aaron Heilman, and Ronny Cedeno.

Teams Address Arbitration Eligible Players

On Wednesday of next week, over 150 players will begin filing for arbitration.  Many will settle on one-year deals in advance of the salary request exchange date, January 18th.  Extensions will be abundant – 14 multiyear deals were reached in January 2010, and nine in January 2009.  Possible candidates for multiyear deals next month include Geovany Soto, Miguel Montero, Chad Billingsley, Johnny Cueto, Delmon Young, Jonathan Sanchez, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, Matt Garza, Joey Votto, Billy Butler, Francisco Liriano, and John Danks.  Agent Matt Sosnick has gotten a jump on things by reaching deals for Jay Bruce and Ricky Nolasco.

January is also a good time to address players who can become free agents after the season.  Examples this year: Albert Pujols, C.C. Sabathia, Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Reyes, David DeJesus, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Rickie Weeks, Dan Uggla, Jose Bautista, Josh Willingham, Wandy Rodriguez, and C.J. Wilson.

Other Fun Stuff

Top 50 prospect lists will come out.  Waiver claims and DFAs will occur.  A few players may retire, while others will start talking comeback.  Former big names will sign minor league deals.  MLBTR will cover all of it, while also trying to figure out how to make the site even better in 2011. 

Fastball velocity holds a certain allure.  This winter we've seen four pitchers who averaged 95+ miles per hour on their 2010 fastballs change teams: Henry Rodriguez, Matt Lindstrom, Felipe Paulino, and Bobby Jenks (minimum 20 innings pitched).  Here are the hardest-throwing free agents still out there:

• Kyle Farnsworth (94.9)
• Blaine Boyer (94.6)
• Jose Veras (94.4)
• Brad Penny (94.1)
• Chris Ray (93.9)
• Todd Coffey (93.6)
• Dustin Nippert (93.1)
• Manny Delcarmen (93.1)

How about trade candidates?

• David Aardsma (94.1).  Note that setup man Brandon League actually threw harder in 2010.
• Leo Nunez (94.0)
• Matt Garza (93.3)
• It wouldn't be a complete shock to see Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek, Joba Chamberlain, or Heath Bell included in a deal, though they are unlikely trade candidates.

All velocity data comes from FanGraphs/Baseball Info Solutions.

The vast majority of the major offseason moves have already been made, though there are still a few top notch free agents waiting to be signed. The deadlines to offer free agents arbitration and to tender contracts to players with less than six years of service time have passed, ditto the always fun Winter Meetings. The offseason doesn't end there though, here is a list of important date still to come…

• January 5th – 15th: Teams and players file for arbitration. More than 150 arbitration-eligible players are still without contracts for the 2011 season. 
• January 18th: Salary arbitration figures are exchanged.
• February 1st – 21st: Salary arbitration hearings are held. Most of those 150+ players will agree to a deal beforehand and avoid a hearing.
• March 2nd – 11th: Players in their pre-arbitration years will have their contracts renewed by their team at any amount (as long as it exceeds 80% of their salary from the previous year) during this time.
• March 28th: Deadline to release players with non-guaranteed contracts without having to pay them their full 2011 salary.

Once the free agent pool starts shrinking, it's always fun to start imagining teams composed only of unsigned players. For the purposes of this admittedly subjective post, I have assumed that every free agent wants to sign with my imaginary American League team and that payroll is unlimited.

My team would be heavy on power relievers, big bats, injury risks and Hairston brothers. It would be light on speed, youth and dependable starting pitching. Here's a look at my imagined 25-man roster, which would likely cost about $120MM. Players in bold are on the team.

The infield would consist of Adam LaRoche at first base, David Eckstein at second, Orlando Cabrera and short and Adrian Beltre at third. Jerry Hairston would back up at short and second and despite his rough 2010 season, Jorge Cantu would make the team as a backup corner infielder. This group figures to be above-average defensively and at least average on offense.

Aging stars would dominate the outfield. Johnny Damon would win the left field job over Fred Lewis, Scott Podsednik and Marcus Thames. Jim Edmonds and Andruw Jones, a pair of once-elite defenders, would roam center and right, respectively. Since Edmonds struggles against lefties and Damon also bats left-handed, the team's fourth outfielder would be Scott Hairston, who is versatile and right-handed.

Fans of the 2006 Blue Jays will be happy to see that Bengie Molina and Gregg Zaun have been reunited as the catching tandem for this hypothetical team. Molina slumped to .249/.297/.326 last year and Zaun missed most of the season with right shoulder surgery, but this duo isn't bad.

Vladimir Guerrero makes the team as a DH over a group of appealing candidates. I decided against Jim Thome, since the team already has a number of left-handed starters who figure to hit in the middle of the order (LaRoche, Damon, Edmonds). Manny Ramirez, another big right-handed bat, was a potential alternative to Vlad, but Guerrero produced more in 2010.

The starting rotation would consist of Carl Pavano, Brandon Webb, Jeff Francis, Freddy Garcia and Kevin Millwood (I'm assuming Andy Pettitte is not available). There's upside here, but Pavano, Webb and Francis are far from sure things. That's why I made Jeremy Bonderman the team's sixth starter/power right-handed reliever. There's no guarantee that he'll stay healthy, so Bruce Chen makes the team as the second lefty out of the 'pen and spot starter.

The bullpen would be the team's strength. Rafael Soriano would close and Kevin Gregg, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch and Octavio Dotel would also be available late in games.

I think this would likely turn out to be a below average, but respectable major league team, but I'd like to know what you think. Feel free to create your own teams or make adjustments to mine in the comments section.

The Angels and Rangers are candidates to sign top free agents, but so far, the AL West has committed less than any other division in baseball. And it's not just because it's a small division. The four AL West teams have averaged $14.78MM in offseason commitments, considerably less than any other division.

The Nationals and Phillies lead the charge in the NL East, which tops all divisions in offseason commitments so far. The NL East ($60.29MM per club) is ahead of the AL East ($55.2MM per club) to date, despite aggressive deals by the Yankees and Red Sox.

Here's the spending by division:

• NL East: $60.29MM average ($301.45MM total)
• AL East: $55.22MM average ($276.08MM total)
• AL Central: $48.82MM average ($244.1MM total)
• NL West: $38.71MM average ($193.53 total)
• NL Central: $22.46MM average ($134.76MM total)
• AL West: $14.78MM average ($59.1MM total)

Complete details and explanation available here. This list will undoubtedly change by the time the offseason ends, and is simply intended to show which divisions have been most aggressive so far.

MLB teams have made over $1.2 billion in salary commitments so far this offseason, according to data compiled by MLBTR. The seven most aggressive teams have combined for $828MM in commitments this winter. In other words, the Red Sox, Nationals, Phillies, White Sox, Tigers, Yankees and Dodgers are responsible for 68.5% of MLB spending to date. 

It's not unusual for a small group of teams to be responsible for a large percentage of spending and it's certainly not unusual for the Red Sox and Yankees to be among the biggest spenders in the game. So far baseball's 30 teams have committed $1.209 billion this offseason*. That figure is sure to rise once high profile free agents like Rafael Soriano, Adrian Beltre, Carl Pavano and Adam LaRoche sign.

This is by no means a final look at offseason spending – the entire 2011 portion of the offseason lies ahead. But just as it's interesting to examine player stats midway through the season, it's worth checking out spending trends before the final totals are tallied.

The entire list of offseason commitments is below, along with an explanation of which deals count and which deals don't. First, here are a handful of observations about the data:

• Just because teams aren't spending doesn't mean they can't or won't spend. It sounds obvious, but fans in New York and Toronto can reasonably expect the Mets and Blue Jays to spend when they believe they have a chance to contend.
• Who would have guessed that the Rangers and Angels would only have made a combined $30.1MM in commitments at this point in the winter?
• Yes, Florida traded a star second baseman away last month. But that hasn't stopped the normally frugal Marlins from out-spending big market teams like the Cubs, Mets and Braves.
• There's a considerable dropoff from the Dodgers (7th with $90.18MM) to the Cardinals (8th with 42.35MM).
• The mean (average) is $40.28MM per team.
• The median (middle number) is $19.025MM.

Here are the details on each team's spending so far this winter:

1. Boston Red Sox – $172MM ($142MM contract for Carl Crawford, $12.5MM option for David Ortiz, $12MM contract for Bobby Jenks, $3MM contract for Dan Wheeler, $2MM contract for Jason Varitek, $455K option for Scott Atchison)
2. Washington Nationals – $128.5MM ($126MM contract for Jayson Werth, $1.5MM contract for Rick Ankiel, $1MM contract for Chien-Ming Wang)
3. Philadelphia Phillies – $125.5MM ($120MM contract for Cliff Lee, $5.5MM contract for Jose Contreras)
4. Chicago White Sox – $120.25MM ($56MM contract for Adam Dunn, $37.5MM contract for Paul Konerko, $13MM contract for Jesse Crain, $8MM contract for A.J. Pierzynski, $3MM option for Matt Thornton, $1.75MM extension for Omar Vizquel, $1MM option for Ramon Castro)
5. Detroit Tigers – $99.25MM ($50MM contract for Victor Martinez, $16.5MM contract for Joaquin Benoit, $11.5MM extension for Brandon Inge, $11.25MM contract for Jhonny Peralta, $10MM contract for Magglio Ordonez)
6. New York Yankees – $93MM ($51MM contract for Derek Jeter, $30MM contract for Mariano Rivera, $8MM contract for Pedro Feliciano, $4MM contract for Russell Martin)
7. Los Angeles Dodgers – $90.18MM ($33MM extension for Ted Lilly, $21MM contract for Juan Uribe, $12MM contract for Hiroki Kuroda, $12MM contract for Matt Guerrier, $5MM contract for Jon Garland, $3.5MM contract for Rod Barajas, $2MM contract for Vicente Padilla, $1MM contract for Dioner Navarro, $680K contract for Tony Gwynn)
8. St. Louis Cardinals – $42.35MM ($16.5MM contract for Jake Westbrook, $16MM option for Albert Pujols, $8MM contract for Lance Berkman, $1.1MM contract for Gerald Laird, $750K contract for Brian Tallet)
9. Cincinnati Reds – $41.75MM ($35MM extension for Bronson Arroyo, $3MM contract for Ramon Hernandez, $2MM contract for Miguel Cairo, $1.75MM option for Jonny Gomes)
10. Colorado Rockies – $40MM ($32MM contract for Jorge de la Rosa, $8MM contract for Ty Wigginton)
11. San Francisco Giants – $29.5MM ($22MM contract for Aubrey Huff, $6.5MM contract for Miguel Tejada, $1MM contract for Pat Burrell)
12. Florida Marlins – $27.5MM ($18MM contract for John Buck, $7MM contract for Javier Vazquez, $2.5MM contract for Randy Choate)
13. Chicago Cubs – $26.1MM ($14.6MM option for Aramis Ramirez, $10MM contract for Carlos Pena, $1.5MM contract for Kerry Wood)
14. Los Angeles Angels – $23MM ($15MM contract for Scott Downs, $8MM contract for Hisanori Takahashi)
15. Minnesota Twins – $19.55MM ($9MM contract plus $5.3MM bid for Tsuyoshi Nishioka, $5.25MM option for Jason Kubel)
16. Oakland A’s – $18.5MM ($6MM option for Mark Ellis, $5.75MM option for Coco Crisp $4.25MM contract for Hideki Matsui, $1.5MM contract for Rich Harden, $1MM contract for Brandon McCarthy)
17. Pittsburgh Pirates – $17.75MM ($8MM contract for Kevin Correia, $5MM contract for Lyle Overbay, $4.25MM contract for Matt Diaz, $500K contract for Scott Olsen)
18. Arizona Diamondbacks – $17.45MM ($10MM contract for J.J. Putz, $2.7MM contract for Geoff Blum, $2MM contract for Melvin Mora, $1.75MM contract for Xavier Nady, $1MM contract for Henry Blanco)
19. San Diego Padres – $16.4MM ($11.5MM contract for Orlando Hudson, $4MM contract for Aaron Harang, $900K contract for Dustin Moseley)
20. New York Mets – $14.8MM ($11MM option for Jose Reyes, $2.5MM contract for D.J. Carrasco, $1.3MM contract for Ronny Paulino)
21. Seattle Mariners – $10.5MM ($7MM contract for Miguel Olivo, $2.5MM contract for Jack Cust, $1MM contract for Erik Bedard)
22. Texas Rangers – $7.1MM ($6.25MM contract for Yorvit Torrealba, $850K contract for Matt Treanor)
23. Baltimore Orioles – $5.58MM ($3MM contract for Koji Uehara, $1.5MM contract for Cesar Izturis, $1.08MM contract for Jeremy Accardo)
24. Atlanta Braves – $5.15MM ($2.5MM option for Alex Gonzalez, $1.45MM contract for Eric Hinske, $1.2MM contract for George Sherrill)
25. Houston Astros – $4.625MM ($3MM contract for Bill Hall, $900K option for Jason Michaels, $725K contract for Ryan Rowland-Smith)
26. Kansas City Royals – $3.75MM ($2.5MM contract for Jeff Francoeur, $1.25MM contract for Melky Cabrera)
27. Toronto Blue Jays – $3.5MM ($2.5MM contract for Edwin Encarnacion, $1MM option for Jose Molina)
28. Milwaukee Brewers – $2.18MM ($1.4MM contract for Craig Counsell, $780K contract for Wil Nieves)
29. Tampa Bay Rays – $2MM ($1.1MM contract for J.P. Howell, $900K contract for Joel Peralta)
30. Cleveland Indians – $1.3MM ($1.3MM contract for Austin Kearns)

*Totals based on free agent contracts, extensions signed by players on the brink or free agency, options exercised this offseason and one international signing. Minor league deals are excluded.

Vizquel, Inge and Lilly signed extensions on the brink of free agency; their extensions count above, as does Arroyo's deal with the Reds. Troy Tulowitzki, Jay Bruce and Ricky Nolasco signed extensions long before free agency and their extensions don’t count here. The Twins’ bid for and contract with Nishioka count. All options exercised this offseason count except the options for Adrian Gonzalez, Omar Infante and David DeJesus. Those three players were traded after their teams picked up their options. Some teams, like the Brewers, have added payroll by trading for players, but those acquisitions do not show up here.

Using different cutoffs, Maury Brown of the Biz of Baseball recently calculated that total payroll allocation for free agents is now over $1 billion this offseason.

MLB Trade Rumors recently unveiled the MLBTR Transaction Tracker, a tool designed to help readers sift through thousands of baseball transactions according to a number of categories. You can search by team, transaction type, date, player, agency, general manager, free agent type, contract length and contract value. Not enough choice? Try combining a few of those fields and you can do some more advanced searches. Here are a few examples:

• You can look up all the $100MM deals in baseball history and then limit the search to nine-figure extensions.
• If you're wondering how many deals of at least $5MM Scott Boras has brokered in 2010, you can do it.
• Click here to see which players were non-tendered in 2008.
• Here's a summary of the deals between the Cubs and Rockies since 2008. 
• Kenny Williams has extended his share of players since becoming the White Sox GM.
• Forget which deals Williams has made with Kevin Towers over the years?

You can link to individual searches and share results on Facebook and Twitter. We link to the tracker under the 'tools' tab at the top of the page; here's the complete user guide. The possibilities with the Transaction Tracker really are endless, so we encourage you to try it out. 

Discussing the Mariners and David Aardsma today, David Cameron wrote, "There is a school of thought that closers garner more in return when moved at the deadline than in the offseason, though I haven’t seen much in the way of real evidence to support the assertion."

Looking at the last three seasons and offseasons, let's look at examples with the help of MLBTR's Transaction Tracker.  This post won't answer Cameron's question in a statistical sense, but it may help shed some light.

I found four closers who were traded during the 2008-10 seasons: Octavio Dotel, Matt Capps, George Sherrill, and Jon Rauch.  I've omitted the trades of Brian Fuentes, Chad Qualls, Kerry Wood, Billy Wagner, and Joel Hanrahan, as those five either weren't closing at the time of their trades or had prohibitive salaries. 

• Dodgers acquired Octavio Dotel and $500K from Pirates for James McDonald and Andrew Lambo.  Though both players had fallen out of favor with the Dodgers, this viewed as a steal for the Pirates.  Dotel once fetched Kyle Davies from the Braves in a different trade, also a fine return.
• Twins acquired Matt Capps and $500K from Nationals for Wilson Ramos and Joe Testa.  The Twins acquired a season and a half of Capps, but with Ramos regarded as at least a regular in the near future, Minnesota had to overpay for Washington's closer.
• Dodgers acquired George Sherrill from Orioles for Josh Bell and Steve Johnson.  The Dodgers had potentially acquired two-plus seasons of Sherrill, who had a 2.40 ERA when the deal was struck.  But Bell was a well-regarded prospect and was anointed Baltimore's third baseman of the future at the time.
• Diamondbacks acquired Jon Rauch from Nationals for Emilio Bonifacio.  Bonifacio was Arizona's sixth-best prospect, but I'd expected Jim Bowden to ask for more for two-plus seasons of Rauch.  It's fair to say the D'Backs didn't have to overpay for Rauch, though his closer pedigree only involved six saves before that season.

Five closers were acquired during the last three offseasons, not including this one: Rafael Soriano, J.J. Putz, Kevin Gregg, Jose Valverde, and Brad Lidge.  We're omitting Huston Street and Matt Lindstrom, who had lost their closer jobs before being dealt.  Gregg was on the outs in Florida but we'll include him.

• Rays acquired Rafael Soriano from Braves for Jesse Chavez.  This isn't a good example, as the Braves were backed into a corner by Soriano accepting arbitration after they'd already signed Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito.
• Mets acquired J.J. Putz from Mariners.  This was a huge three-team deal.  The Mets received other players, but didn't give up premium pieces to acquire Putz.  Putz was coming off a rough '08 season though.
• Cubs acquired Kevin Gregg from Marlins for Jose Ceda.  I think most viewed this as a win for the Marlins at the time.
• Astros acquired Jose Valverde from Diamondbacks for Chad Qualls, Juan Gutierrez, and Chris Burke.  At the time, I questioned whether Josh Byrnes got the best possible return for two seasons of Valverde.
• Phillies acquired Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett from Astros for Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, and Mike Costanzo.  At the time Bourn/Costanzo was generally considered a high price paid by the Phillies.

More data points would be nice, but this is a start.  Teams overpaid to acquire Dotel, Capps, and Sherrill midseason, though Ned Colletti authored two of those deals.  The prices did seem lower for Putz and Valverde during the offseason, but not necessarily for Gregg or Lidge.  I think the conventional wisdom has value – contenders are more desperate for relief help during the summer, and with no free agent alternatives they're willing to surrender slightly better prospects for closers. 

Most relievers want to close; it's the most prestigious and lucrative bullpen job.  Browsing our list of unsigned relievers, Grant Balfour, Octavio Dotel, Brian Fuentes, Kevin Gregg, Trevor Hoffman, Chad Qualls, Jon Rauch, and Rafael Soriano have recent closing experience.  Surely Scott Boras will find Soriano a ninth inning job, while I imagine Fuentes and Gregg still expect to close as well.  Which teams might have openings in the ninth?

• Orioles: They've got Koji Uehara and Mike Gonzalez already, but have been linked to Gregg.
• Rays: If you're an agent, this is the team to call if your client is more interested in closing than in his 2011 salary.
• Blue Jays: Jason Frasor is back, but the ninth inning is probably unsettled here.
• Mariners: If they trade David Aardsma, they could sign a more affordable reliever and give him a shot to close.
• Rangers: A week ago Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wrote that the Rangers are "unlikely to spend big for a reliever, even if they move righty Neftali Feliz to the rotation."  Frank Francisco and Mark Lowe are a couple of internal options, or the Rangers could sign someone affordable.
• Braves: They've got youngsters Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel, plus veterans including new additions George Sherrill and Scott Linebrink.  They might be done with the bullpen.
• Nationals: They've been linked to Gregg and were in on Jesse Crain.  GM Mike Rizzo said in November that he wants to improve the bullpen.
• Pirates: Their Dotel gambit worked out this year, and the Bucs are known to be in on similar relievers despite the presence of Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek.
• Closing jobs can be tough to come by, but at the moment there could be a half-dozen teams willing to give a reliever the title.  Beverly Hills Sports Council represents Fuentes, Gregg, Dotel, and Hoffman, so they've got an interesting situation to sort out.