Hindsight Is 2010: Our Top 15 Stories Of The Year
You know it has been a busy year when the trades for Dan Uggla and Roy Oswalt aren't among the year's top stories. Uggla and Oswalt are in good company, though. Colby Rasmus, Justin Upton, Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez were all regulars on MLBTR, but none of them made our cut either. So who did? We present you with the 15 storylines that dominated MLB Trade Rumors in 2010:
- The Cliff Lee sweepstakes, Part 1 and 2 – Has any player monopolized trade rumors more than Cliff Lee in the past two years? He was traded twice in 2009, but didn't slow down in 2010. Once the Mariners fell out of contention it became apparent that Lee was headed elsewhere. The Yankees appeared to have acquired the left-hander, but the deal fell through and the Rangers swooped in to acquire him. In case that wasn't enough drama for the year, Lee turned down more guaranteed money from the Rangers and Yankees to return to Philadelphia. He signed a $120MM deal with the Phils that gives the team a phenomenal rotation and should provide Lee with some well-deserved stability.
- The Adrian Gonzalez trade – The Red Sox have long coveted Gonzalez, but Theo Epstein couldn't acquire him from the Padres until after the season, since San Diego was in contention until the season's final day. Boston obtained Gonzalez for Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes and Eric Patterson just before the Winter Meetings.
- The Zack Greinke trade – The Brewers acquired Greinke from the Royals, but that's far from the whole story. Despite a good-but-not-great season from the right-hander, many teams, including the Braves, Yankees, Blue Jays and Rangers, expressed interest. Greinke, Shaun Marcum and Yovani Gallardo have the potential to give the Brewers their best rotation in years.
- The Carl Crawford signing – Crawford was a potential trade candidate entering the season, but like the Padres, the Rays held onto their superstar and went for it in 2010. Both teams will be watching their former players suit up for the Red Sox in 2011, since Boston signed Crawford for $142MM. The Angels, considered by many the favorites to land Crawford, may be as disappointed as the Rays.
- Longtime Yankees hit free agency – No one really thought Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera would sign elsewhere, but the Red Sox were intrigued enough to make Rivera an offer and negotiations with Jeter became a little messier and more public than expected. Both players will be back in pinstripes for a minimum of two years, leaving Yankees fans to wonder about Andy Pettitte.
- Jayson Werth's massive contract - Werth entered 2010 having qualified for one batting title in his career and emerged from the year with a $126MM contract. In between, he collected 75 extra base hits, switched agents, helped the Phillies to the NLCS and was even a midsummer trade candidate.
- The Joe Mauer extension - Not only did Mauer sign the fourth biggest contract in baseball history ($184MM), he deprived the Yankees and Red Sox of the chance to bid on him as a free agent. The Twins' decision to lock up the perennial MVP candidate coincided with a move to Target Field and increased spending.
- Under-the-radar moves lead Giants to first World title in San Francisco – Brian Sabean has endured his share of criticism for signing Aaron Rowand and Barry Zito, but his moves worked tremendously in 2010. He signed Aubrey Huff, gambled on Pat Burrell and claimed Cody Ross to great effect. The team's homegrown core – Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Buster Posey – deserves credit, too.
- The Mets' front office changes – Omar Minaya and Jerry Manuel won't be leading the Mets again in 2011. The team brought in veteran GM Sandy Alderson, who hired manager Terry Collins and former GMs J.P. Ricciardi and Paul DePodesta. The Mets have had a relatively quiet offseason, but they intend to spend more on the draft and they have money coming off the books a year from now.
- The Diamondbacks' front office changes and firesale – Josh Byrnes, Jerry Dipoto and Kevin Towers have all had turns running the D'Backs this year. Before Towers shopped Justin Upton, Byrnes and Dipoto shipped Conor Jackson, Edwin Jackson, Chris Snyder, Bobby Crosby, Dan Haren and Chad Qualls out of Arizona. The D'Backs also promoted Kirk Gibson and fired A.J. Hinch, who now works with Byrnes in the Padres front office.
- The fate of the 2012 first base class – Ryan Howard signed a $125MM extension, Prince Fielder stayed put despite near-constant rumors and Albert Pujols is less than a year away from free agency.
- Top Nationals picks generate buzz – Stephen Strasburg's electrifying debut and eventual elbow injury captivated baseball fans this summer. Bryce Harper, the first overall pick in 2010, promises to bring his powerful bat to Nationals Park within a few years.
- Dodger Drama – The McCourts' divorce provided lots of off-field Hollywood drama. There will be no more Mannywood in L.A., though. The White Sox made a much-anticipated waiver claim this August, ending Manny Ramirez's two-year tenure with the Dodgers.
- The Adam Dunn saga – The Nationals discussed possible extensions with Dunn before and after he appeared in trade rumors at the 2010 deadline. He stayed put this summer, but left for Chicago after the season, signing a four-year, $56MM deal with the White Sox.
- Reds sign Aroldis Chapman - The Reds won the Chapman sweepstakes with a surprise $30.25MM bid. Late in the lefty's first professional season, the Reds called him up and saw him dominate big leaguers for 15 relief appearances, throwing the fastest recorded pitch in baseball history along the way.
Honorable mentions: Adrian Beltre, Victor Martinez, Dan Uggla, Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Carl Pavano, Heath Bell, David Ortiz, Joey Votto, Jose Bautista, Paul Konerko, Corey Hart, Ted Lilly, James Shields, Matt Garza, Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Colby Rasmus, Justin Upton, Troy Tulowitzki, Johnny Damon and multiyear deals for relievers.
Thanks to Tim Dierkes, Zach Links, Steve Adams, Howard Megdal, Mark Polishuk, Luke Adams, Mike Axisa and Jason Martinez for help creating this list.
Unfinished Business: Remaining Team Needs
Some teams have completed their offseason shopping, and lots of deals still lie ahead for others. Here's a summary of the remaining team needs, sorted by division (links go to detailed breakdowns of divisional needs):
- Orioles: First baseman, right-handed reliever, left-handed reliever, starter.
- Red Sox: left-handed reliever.
- Yankees: starter, right-handed outfielder.
- Rays: closer, DH/first baseman.
- Blue Jays: hitter, left-handed relief help.
- White Sox: Swingman or reliever.
- Indians: Veteran starting pitcher, third baseman, utility infielder, Shin-Soo Choo extension.
- Tigers: Starting pitcher, lefty reliever.
- Royals: Starting pitcher, reliever.
- Twins: Starting pitcher, reliever(s), backup infielder, Jim Thome situation, Francisco Liriano extension.
- Angels: Third base, outfielder/DH, leadoff man.
- Athletics: Reliever.
- Mariners: Starting pitcher, left fielder, reliever, backup infielder.
- Rangers: Designated hitter, possible extensions for Josh Hamilton and C.J. Wilson.
- Braves: Backup outfielder who can handle center field.
- Marlins: Left-handed hitting bench bat.
- Mets: Starting pitcher, lefty reliever, fourth outfielder.
- Phillies: Taker for Joe Blanton.
- Nationals: Starting pitcher, first baseman, reliever.
- Cubs: Starting pitcher.
- Reds: Lefty reliever, left-handed hitting outfielder/leadoff hitter, backup shortstop, Joey Votto extension.
- Astros: Lefty reliever.
- Brewers: None.
- Pirates: Veteran reliever, starting pitcher, taker for Ryan Doumit.
- Cardinals: Albert Pujols extension, pitching depth.
- Diamondbacks: None.
- Rockies: Starting pitching depth, lefty reliever, Carlos Gonzalez extension.
- Dodgers: Right-handed hitting left fielder.
- Padres: Backup infielder.
- Giants: Backup shortstop, sixth starter.
Potential Free Agent Bats For 2012-13 Offseason
Last week we looked at starting pitchers who could reach free agency after the 2012 season. Today, let's see which bats might be available.
The following position players are among those on pace to have six-plus years of service time for the first time once the '12 season ends: Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, Delmon Young, Stephen Drew, Miguel Montero, Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, Luke Scott, and Carlos Quentin. Others currently in the four-plus service time class, such as Mike Napoli and James Loney, will need strong 2011 seasons to avoid being non-tendered. Hamilton looks like the only candidate for a $100MM+ deal, unless someone else posts massive 2011-12 seasons. Of course, any of these players could be extended before the '12 season ends.
As far as position players on multiyear deals that will expire after '12, in most cases we'll see veterans who won't qualify as top bats: Torii Hunter, Carlos Lee, Aaron Rowand, and Marlon Byrd for example. There are a pair of big names, though: David Wright and Ichiro Suzuki. Wright will turn 30 in December of 2012, and if his next two campaigns go well he could land a huge contract. Ichiro will turn 39 after the '12 season.
More than a dozen position players have contract options for 2012, which if exercised would make them eligible for free agency after that season. Yadier Molina, Aramis Ramirez, Rafael Furcal, Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and Nick Swisher are the interesting names here, though some could be free agents after '11 if the options are declined.
A similar-sized group has options for '13, which if declined will make them free agents prior to that season. Names here include Brian McCann, Aubrey Huff, Travis Hafner, Mark Reynolds, Ian Kinsler, Kevin Youkilis, and Curtis Granderson. The most appealing players, however, figure to have their '13 options exercised.
Aaron Hill, Ryan Doumit, and Robinson Cano have club options on the '12 and '13 seasons – '14 as well for Hill. The big prize, Cano, will probably have both exercised.
Current free agent hitters could join this group by signing two-year deals or one-year contracts with options that are picked up. Still more names will be added from those who sign one-year deals now and again after the season, as well as those non-tendered after '12.
As of right now Hamilton and Wright project as the top bats for the 2012-13 offseason, though others like Upton, Young, Drew, Ethier, and Kemp could join the discussion by posting a pair of big offensive seasons.
Cot's Baseball Contracts was instrumental in creating this post.
Arbitration Tracker
More than 20 arbitration eligible players have already agreed to 2011 contracts, but over 100 are still preparing to file next week. MLBTR now has the best tool for keeping on top of it: our arbitration tracker.
The arbitration tracker shows all eligible players with fields for the player and team's salary submissions, the midpoint, and the amount they settled upon. You'll be able to filter by team, signing status, and whether a hearing took place. Also, links to MLBTR stories are provided if you'd like more information on agreements or extensions.
January 5-15th marks the arbitration filing period, and figures will be exchanged on the 18th for those who have yet to reach an agreement. Hearings will take place in February.
Click here to access our arbitration tracker, which has been added to the Tools menu at the top of the website as well.
5 Outfielders Who Could Benefit From Werth’s Deal
Jayson Werth has been one of the best outfielders in baseball for the past few years, but it took the former first round pick years to turn his potential into production. Even though he didn't thrive in the majors until arriving in Philadelphia in 2007, Werth just signed a $126MM deal. Others could follow Werth's path and cash in as free agents even if they don't break out until a little later in their careers. Here are five outfielders who could benefit from the deal the Nationals just made with the 31-year-old outfielder (players listed according to when they hit free agency):
- Jose Bautista (hits free agency after 2011 as a 31-year-old) – He was drafted in 2000 and didn't break out until he clubbed 54 homers last year. If he adds another All-Star caliber season to the back of his baseball card, Bautista could cash in next offseason. Werth played at a high level for two full seasons and two partial seasons before hitting free agency, so there is some precedent for players leveraging recent history into nine figure contracts.
- Josh Hamilton (hits free agency after 2012 as a 31-year-old) – The former first overall pick didn't debut until he was nearly 26 because of a variety of on and off-field problems. He's an MVP now and he'll hit free agency at the same age Werth did (Hamilton is two years and one day younger).
- B.J. Upton (hits free agency after 2012 as a 28-year-old) – Upton's performance has fluctuated considerably over the course of the past few seasons. If the former second overall pick can turn in two consecutive All-Star seasons, he'll have a case for a substantial multiyear deal when he hits free agency.
- Adam Jones (hits free agency after 2013 as a 28-year-old) – Jones was an All-Star in 2009, but he has yet to completely break out. He's three seasons away from free agency, so there's still time for him to excel on a consistent basis and prove doubters that he deserves Werth-like money.
- Nelson Cruz (hits free agency after 2013 as a 33-year-old) – Cruz broke out in 2009, 11 years after he signed as an amateur free agent. He's still a few years away from free agency, but he has been setting himself up for a big payday with two consecutive monster seasons.
Last Year’s Best January Signings
If January is a time for bargains, we should have plenty of examples from 2010. The best Major League signings from that month:
- Adrian Beltre to Red Sox for one year, $10MM.
- Vladimir Guerrero to Rangers for one year, $6.5MM.
- Jon Garland to Padres for one year, $5.3MM.
- Brett Myers to Astros for one year, $5.1MM.
- Colby Lewis to Rangers for two years, $5MM.
- Matt Capps to Nationals for one year, $3.5MM.
- Octavio Dotel to Pirates for one year, $3.25MM.
- Aubrey Huff to Giants for one year, $3MM.
- Jack Cust to Athletics for one year, $2.65MM.
- Miguel Olivo to Rockies for one year, $2.5MM.
- Jim Thome to Twins for one year, $1.5MM. This deal was agreed to in January but made official in February.
- Jose Contreras to Phillies for one year, $1.5MM.
For the most part, the key was to sign someone coming off a disappointing season to a one-year contract. Candidates for 2011: Nick Johnson, Derrek Lee, Johnny Damon, Scott Hairston, Manny Ramirez, Jeremy Bonderman, Justin Duchscherer, Jeff Francis, Kevin Millwood, Brad Penny, Chris Young, Chad Qualls, Alfredo Aceves, Manny Delcarmen, and Mark Hendrickson.
Team Facebook Pages
MLB Trade Rumors has team Facebook pages! We have a general Facebook page, of course, but now we have 30 separate pages for those who are only looking to receive and comment on rumors related to their favorite club. Click your team below, hit the Like button to sign up, and enjoy!
AL East
AL Central
AL West
NL East
NL Central
NL West
The Type A Free Agents Who Would Cost Picks
Grant Balfour, Rafael Soriano, Adrian Beltre, and Carl Pavano are the remaining free agents for whom teams will have to surrender draft picks. Like Victor Martinez, Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Jayson Werth, Scott Downs and Cliff Lee, Balfour, Soriano, Beltre and Pavano turned down offers of arbitration after being ranked as Type A free agents. This means their new teams will each have to surrender a high draft choice in 2011.
Those choices could come in the first round, the second round, or even later. Since the Tigers, Red Sox, White Sox, Nationals, Angels and Philllies have already surrendered their top picks, they would only have to surrender a second or third rounder to sign Balfour, Soriano, Beltre or Pavano. The 15 teams that finished the 2010 season in the lower half of the standings have protected first round picks, so the Rays, Red Sox and Twins will not receive a first round selection if a team like the Mariners or Royals signs their player.
At this point, only 11 teams could lose their first round pick. The Rockies, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Padres, Rangers, Reds, Braves, Giants, Twins, Yankees and Rays are the last remaining clubs that could lose 2011 first rounders. The Twins and Rays will not lose their picks if they re-sign their own players, however.
What’s In Store For January
Here's what to expect as we prepare to enter 2011…
Boras Clients Will Find Homes
Last January, Matt Holliday, Adrian Beltre, Rick Ankiel, and Xavier Nady signed. This offseason Scott Boras still has to place top clients Beltre and Rafael Soriano despite no signs of bidding wars breaking out. He also has to find homes for Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, Andruw Jones, Kevin Millwood, and Bruce Chen, among others. A year ago, Damon talk dominated January and he didn't sign with the Tigers until late February.
Multiyear Free Agent Deals Will Dry Up
In January 2010, Holliday and Jason Bay came off the board in the first week. Otherwise only three multiyear free agent deals were signed, as Danys Baez, Jose Valverde, and Joel Pineiro received two years. Aside from the Boras guys, Adam LaRoche, Carl Pavano, and a handful of relievers are trying to find multiple years now. Most free agents should expect one-year deals in the $1-5MM range, though.
A few interesting international signings may occur, for example Aroldis Chapman and Colby Lewis last January.
Big Trades Are Rare
Kevin Kouzmanoff was the biggest name moved last January. In 2009 the Cubs dumped Jason Marquis and Felix Pie in separate deals, while the Mariners were active in deals involving David Aardsma, Aaron Heilman, and Ronny Cedeno.
Teams Address Arbitration Eligible Players
On Wednesday of next week, over 150 players will begin filing for arbitration. Many will settle on one-year deals in advance of the salary request exchange date, January 18th. Extensions will be abundant – 14 multiyear deals were reached in January 2010, and nine in January 2009. Possible candidates for multiyear deals next month include Geovany Soto, Miguel Montero, Chad Billingsley, Johnny Cueto, Delmon Young, Jonathan Sanchez, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, Matt Garza, Joey Votto, Billy Butler, Francisco Liriano, and John Danks. Agent Matt Sosnick has gotten a jump on things by reaching deals for Jay Bruce and Ricky Nolasco.
January is also a good time to address players who can become free agents after the season. Examples this year: Albert Pujols, C.C. Sabathia, Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Reyes, David DeJesus, Mark Buehrle, Edwin Jackson, Rickie Weeks, Dan Uggla, Jose Bautista, Josh Willingham, Wandy Rodriguez, and C.J. Wilson.
Other Fun Stuff
Top 50 prospect lists will come out. Waiver claims and DFAs will occur. A few players may retire, while others will start talking comeback. Former big names will sign minor league deals. MLBTR will cover all of it, while also trying to figure out how to make the site even better in 2011.
The Hardest Throwers Available
Fastball velocity holds a certain allure. This winter we've seen four pitchers who averaged 95+ miles per hour on their 2010 fastballs change teams: Henry Rodriguez, Matt Lindstrom, Felipe Paulino, and Bobby Jenks (minimum 20 innings pitched). Here are the hardest-throwing free agents still out there:
- Kyle Farnsworth (94.9)
- Blaine Boyer (94.6)
- Jose Veras (94.4)
- Brad Penny (94.1)
- Chris Ray (93.9)
- Todd Coffey (93.6)
- Dustin Nippert (93.1)
- Manny Delcarmen (93.1)
How about trade candidates?
- David Aardsma (94.1). Note that setup man Brandon League actually threw harder in 2010.
- Leo Nunez (94.0)
- Matt Garza (93.3)
- It wouldn't be a complete shock to see Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek, Joba Chamberlain, or Heath Bell included in a deal, though they are unlikely trade candidates.
All velocity data comes from FanGraphs/Baseball Info Solutions.