Uncategorized News & Rumors

With the help of Cot's Baseball Contracts and other sources, MLBTR has compiled data on 66 contracts given to young pitchers over the past ten years.  The criteria for the list was that at least one arbitration season was bought out in the pitcher's multiyear contract.  Over $1.4 billion has been committed to these pitchers.  Data to consider:

• Locking up young pitchers has never been more popular.  11 contracts have been signed so far in 2010, more than any other year.  The trend seems to have taken off in 2005, after which point 7-9 young pitcher contracts were signed each year.
• Will we ever see a deal for a pitcher that covers a player's first season, like Evan Longoria's?  It hasn't happened yet, but 11 pitchers have signed deals that included their second year of service time.  James Shields took more of his money upfront than most, in that he earned $1MM in his second year of service time and $1.5MM in his third.  Most players, going year to year, earn $500K or less before reaching arbitration.
• Tim Lincecum, of course, will earn the most in a season that would've been his first arbitration year – $8MM.  Next is Cole Hamels at $4.35MM.  Typically the first arbitration season goes for about $3MM (in recent years).  The second arbitration year is typically around $6MM, the third about $8.5MM.  To buy out a young pitcher's arbitration years, the cost is usually in the $13-17MM range.
• 47 of the contracts bought out the first free agent season; 20 of those are club options.  At $20MM, Justin Verlander will be paid the most for his first free agent season.  At $80MM, Verlander's total contract value is also the highest.  Aside from Verlander and Felix Hernandez, most pitchers gave up their first free agent at a $7-14MM price.
• Six pitchers gave the club options on multiple seasons.  Brett Anderson, Ian Snell, Adam Wainwright, and Ubaldo Jimenez allowed two club options, while Shields and Fausto Carmona gave three.
• Older data may be missing, but the Diamondbacks appear to lead with six young pitcher deals (two for Brandon Webb).  The A's are next at five.  As far as we can tell, the Braves, Dodgers, Mets, Nationals, and Orioles have zero.

Ben Nicholson-Smith contributed to this research.

Last Wednesday, over 800 prospects, coaches, and scouts gathered outside of the hotel of recently appointed MLB Dominican baseball czar Sandy Alderson in the Dominican Republic capital of Santo Domingo. Alderson joked to local reporters that he should have brought lunch for the crowd, but those in attendance, stationed behind a police barricade, simply wanted to make sure Alderson heard their three-word chant: "No al draft." No to the draft.

The crowd's concern could seem premature, as Alderson has gone on the record recently in the Spanish-speaking press saying he is not seeking to implement a draft on the island. His immediate goals, he told ESPN's Jorge Arangure, Jr., are more simple: combating age fraud and steroid use, guarding against scouts "skimming" players' signing bonuses, and implementing a scouting bureau to curb the abuses of the ill-reputed independent scouts known as "buscones." However, Bud Selig has been clear in his desire for an international draft, and Alderson noted to Arangure, "If baseball decides to start a draft, there are ways of making it work."

Over the ensuing days, the protest has received coverage only in international baseball press, but the Dominican press has been rife with increasingly panicked interviews and editorials that make the draft sound all but inevitable, and its consequences catastrophic for MLB's second-largest talent pool. Alderson, critics say, is "arrogant and categorical" in meetings, making decisions unilaterally and refusing to meet with the scouts who are at the center of the Dominican system. The changes he advocates would spell the "total collapse" of the country as a baseball market, said Enrique Soto, president of the Association of Independent Scouts, to Diario Libre's Nathanael Perez Nero.

So what is everyone so afraid of? In two words: Puerto Rico. The US commonwealth was brought under the umbrella of the draft in 1990, and has since fallen far behind the Dominican Republic as a baseball producer. Last year, noted Arangure, 28 Puerto Ricans were on Major League rosters, as compared to 81 Dominicans. This disparity isn't lost on officials in Puerto Rico, who have petitioned to be excluded from the draft as recently as 2007, at which time Secretary of Sports and Recreation David Bernier noted that "after the introduction of the draft, Puerto Rico is neither part of the continent nor part of the world."

Puerto Rico's decline looms prominently in Dominican news stories about Alderson's proposals, along with claims that the draft was the singular force which "killed" the sport. Hall of Famer and Puerto Rican native Orlando Cepeda echoed the concerns in a recent interview with ESPN, noting that "kids in Puerto Rico don't play baseball anymore," primarily because "there are hardly any more Puerto Rican players kids can look up to." In contrast, he called baseball "a sport for the hungry" in the Dominican Republic, an idea which featured prominently in fears expressed at the protest.

"(Alderson's) plan threatens to create more criminals. When you reduce the number of options for young men to sign in a country with few opportunities, they will choose to do bad," said Soto. "They want us to put our players to compete (in a draft) at age 16 against Cubans, Koreans, Australians and Americans who are 20 and 24 years old. We're talking about men versus boys and less money for our players." In 2009, according to Diario Libre's Nero, that money amounted to $39.4MM from teams to sign 421 Dominican prospects, another $15MM invested in 29 team academies on the island, and, of course, the $353MM earned by the 85 Dominican players on Major League rosters.

By week's end, tempers seemed to have calmed, as Dominican baseball commissioner Porfirio Veras Mercedes announced that "Alderson has given us assurance that if the buscones, scouts, and coaches ensure that players comply with current regulations, there will be no draft." Alderson reinforced this notion in Spanish to the AP, portraying the draft as something between a last resort and a punishment.

However, a fiery editorial in Sunday's edition of Listin Diario, the country's oldest newspaper, revived the debate by tying the reform effort to the erstwhile conversation about racism in baseball—but from the other side. Baseball columnist Mario Emilio Guerrero writes that Alderson's plans reflect widespread fear in the states that there are "too many Latinos" in baseball, noting in particular that over half of minor league players are from Spanish-speaking countries. Citing both Torii Hunter's "impostors" comment and Gary Sheffield's line about Latin players being easier to control than African American players, Guerrero writes that MLB's plans for the Dominican Republic would "delight those who see the Latin player as an intruder, dominating a scenario where he does not belong."

Guerrero concludes his lengthy diatribe by expressing a desire popular at the protest—that Dominican national authorities should take notice and perhaps even intervene on behalf of their prominent industry:

What will they do with the academies and the enormous investments that numerous Major League franchises have made in the country? Because with a draft, training centers would have no reason to be. You're not going to form a player just so someone else can select and recruit him. And most importantly, will the government and national sports leaders allow this stab at the heart of Dominican baseball without putting up any type of opposition? You have to keep your eyes open, because at any moment the wolf could bring out its fangs.

While a few scouts now seem to be willing to take Alderson at his word and embrace reform, it appears changes in the pipeline that currently accounts for a quarter of Major League players won't happen without a fight.

Pedro Alvarez, Desmond Jennings and Carlos Santana have more in common than their status as top prospects. These guys are as cheap as they’ll ever be and their teams can control their future salaries by calling them up strategically.

Just ask the Rays. Evan Longoria fell two days short of a full year of service time, which delayed his free agency by a year and GM Andrew Friedman went on to sign Longoria to one of the most team-friendly deals around. The team's decision to keep him in the minors for a couple weeks in April 2008 looks as prudent today as it looked cheap then.

If teams wait until late April to call on a player without major league service time, they can save considerably. Players who make their big league debuts after April 19th (that’s Monday) this year won’t spend enough time on a major league roster to earn a full year’s service time, so their free agency will be pushed back a year. 

If the Braves had called Jason Heyward up in late April, they could likely have delayed his free agency and he would have been under team control through 2016. But the Braves didn’t try to save with Heyward, who’s off to a hot start. It’s Bobby Cox’s last season and the Braves just want to win, so on-field ability comes first for the Braves right now.

The D’Backs faced a similar dilemma with Brandon Allen last summer. The 24-year-old first baseman was hitting well in the minors, well on his way to earning the number four spot on Baseball America’s list of top D’Backs prospects. In 502 plate appearances, he had a .298/.373/.503 line with 20 homers. 

The D’Backs could have limited Allen’s service time by keeping him in the minors. That would not necessarily have delayed his free agency or limited his arbitration years, but it would have made it easier for the D’Backs to save money in years to come. But D’Backs GM Josh Byrnes says the service time clock was secondary.

Byrnes says he will call on some promising young players – Justin Upton comes to mind – in August or September. It may mean they pick up service time, but Byrnes says it’s often worth it.

“In my experience, players like Jason Jennings, Juan Pierre and Jonathan Papelbon had impact in the first full season after a late-season call-up the year before,” said Byrnes, who worked for the Indians, Rockies and Red Sox before taking over the D’Backs in 2005.

The Rockies called on Juan Pierre in August of 2000, setting him up for a big 2001 season (.327/.378/.415 line, 46 SB). Jason Jennings made seven starts for Colorado down the stretch in 2003 before winning NL Rookie of the Year the next season. The Rockies played Pierre and Jennings instead of slowing their ascent to free agency and arbitration by keeping them in the minors.

In those cases, the decision to put player development ahead of player cost paid off. But that doesn’t mean the D’Backs don’t have one eye on their players’ service time clocks.

“Of course, we are aware of years of control and arbitration in anything we do (including trades), but service implications have not been taken precedent over baseball decisions,” Byrnes said.

And that choice is entirely the team’s. Agent Matt Sosnick, whose clients inlcude Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Jay Bruce, realizes clubs make these decisions.

“As an agent you have to know that,” he says. “I mean that’s the deal. It’s the teams that make that call and that’s out of your control [as an agent].”

Sosnick predicts this year will be no different than others: top prospects will get the call at the end of May and beginning of June. That limits the player’s service time to 130 days or so, which reduces his chances of qualifying for super two status. Since super twos go to arbitration four times instead of the usual three, it’s a big deal. In essence, teams can save millions by keeping an eye on the service time clock. 

Ultimately, he can’t blame the clubs for calling players up when they do.

“You look at the amount of players that are called up within a couple weeks of that time and from a business standpoint, it was a smart thing.”

After all, players earn considerably more when they’re super twos.

“It can be the difference between making $500K and $5 million bucks in that year,” Sosnick says.

The Reds called Jay Bruce up on May 27th, 2008. That left Bruce with 125 days of service time after the season. After this coming season, he’ll likely be a week or two short of super two status. The consequence of the late call-up was obvious to Bruce.

“He was at the point when he was called up- he knew  that getting called up at that point meant that he was not going to be super two,” Sosnick says.

Agents might hope their clients pick up a full year of service time or gain super two status, but they can’t do much more than wish.

“What would the alternative be?” Sosnick asks. “Should I go to a general manager and say ‘listen why don’t you call him up ten days earlier so that two years from now he can be a super two and go to arbitration a year earlier.’ They’ll tell me to piss off.”

Imagine the amount of number-crunching, scouting reports, and intangible assessments that must occur before a team signs a free agent to a multi-million dollar contract.  Presumably, team execs dissect every angle and feel completely justified before making one of these huge commitments.  Why, then, have so many free agent contracts from the 2008-09 offseason already gone sour?  Check it out…

• The Braves, feeling light on starting pitching, committed $60MM to Derek Lowe and $23MM to Kenshin Kawakami.  A year later neither contract could be moved, and the Braves had to part with Javier Vazquez after an ace-like performance.
• Manny Ramirez finally signed a two-year, $45MM deal in March of '09.  He started off raking, but his PED suspension came down on May 7th.  Manny hit .269/.389/.492 after the suspension, which was considered by many as a disappointment.  He declined the chance to opt out of $20MM for 2010.
• Francisco Rodriguez signed for less than expected, getting three years and $37MM from the Mets.  He showed the worst control of his career in '09, and now the concern has to be that he'll meet the criteria to get his $17.5MM option for 2012 guaranteed.
• Oliver Perez signed for three years and $36MM, which Scott Boras actually preferred to the Mets' idea of four years and $44MM.  Perez was a disaster in the first year of the contract.
• The Cubs have already dumped Milton Bradley; they were happy to save $5MM on his $30MM contract.
• Kerry Wood makes little sense for the Indians now, not that they could move his contract.  He's begun the season on the DL with an upper back strain.
• That's just the $20MM and up contracts; commitments to Brian Fuentes, Pat Burrell, Jamie Moyer, Damaso Marte, Koji Uehara, Kyle Farnsworth, Nick Punto, Willy Taveras, and Juan Cruz are also viewed as unfavorable.  Which 2009-10 signings will make this list after one season?  It may be a smaller group, as teams are shying away from multiyear commitments. 

Every spring, we hear about teams keeping top young players in the minors to prevent them from obtaining Super Two status. Players like Ryan Braun, Matt Wieters and Stephen Strasburg dominate the minor leagues for a couple months before getting the call near the end of May. The teams' logic is simple: Super Twos go to arbitration four times instead of three, so they make more money than their peers. That provides clubs with an incentive to keep players in the minors for eight or ten weeks of extra seasoning.

But how much more money do Super Twos really make? It depends on the caliber of the player, but Ryan Braun's contract gives us insight into how teams and agents value that extra year of arbitration. Braun isn't a Super Two player, but as Cot's Baseball Contracts shows, his contract would have paid him $25.5MM as a Super Two instead of the $19.5MM he will actually earn.

For Braun, Super Two status would have made a difference of $6MM. Not all Super Twos are superstars, of course, but even ordinary players could make as much as 31% more money over the course of the four last seasons they're under team control. As Yahoo's Jeff Passan explains in this article, Super Twos may be "negotiated into the ether" before long.

Here's a list of the start dates of each of the 30 general managers.

• Brian Sabean, Giants: 9/30/96
• Billy Beane, Athletics: 10/17/97
• Brian Cashman, Yankees: 2/3/98
• Dan O'Dowd, Rockies: 9/20/99
• Kenny Williams, White Sox: 10/25/00
• Mark Shapiro, Indians: 11/1/01
• Dave Dombrowski, Tigers: 4/8/02
• Jim Hendry, Cubs: 7/5/02
• Doug Melvin, Brewers: 9/25/02
• Theo Epstein, Red Sox: 11/25/02
• Omar Minaya, Mets: 9/30/04
• Jon Daniels, Rangers: 10/4/05
• Josh Byrnes, Diamondbacks: 10/28/05
• Andrew Friedman, Rays: 11/3/05
• Ned Colletti, Dodgers: 11/16/05
• Dayton Moore, Royals: 5/31/06
• Andy MacPhail, Orioles: 6/20/07
• Ed Wade, Astros: 9/20/07
• Neal Huntington, Pirates: 9/25/07
• Michael Hill, Marlins: 9/29/07
• Bill Smith, Twins: 10/1/07
• Frank Wren, Braves: 10/11/07
• Tony Reagins, Angels: 10/16/07
• John Mozeliak, Cardinals: 10/31/07 (became interim GM 10/3/07)
• Walt Jocketty, Reds: 4/23/08
• Jack Zduriencik, Mariners: 10/22/08
• Ruben Amaro Jr., Phillies: 11/3/08
• Mike Rizzo, Nationals: 8/20/09 (became interim GM 3/4/09)
• Alex Anthopoulos, Blue Jays: 10/3/09
• Jed Hoyer, Padres: 10/26/09
• Baseball America and Cot's Baseball Contracts were of great help in compiling this list.

What if every team was given the power to remove one contract from their payroll?  Here's what we might see…

• Angels: Brian Fuentes earns $9MM this year and has a vesting option for '11 at the same salary.  The Halos would also have to evaluate whether they're confident enough in Ervin Santana to pay him $26.2MM over the next three years.  We'll exclude Gary Matthews Jr. since he's technically not on the team anymore.
• Astros: They might miss his bat, but they'd have to erase the three-year, $55.5MM remaining commitment to Carlos Lee.
• Athletics: Eric Chavez has one year and $15MM left on his deal.
• Blue Jays: Vernon Wells is on the hook for $98.5MM over five years.
• Braves: Derek Lowe, owed $45MM over three years, would get the axe.
• Brewers: Jeff Suppan is a goner, owed $14.5MM for one year.
• Cardinals: Kyle Lohse would be a likely candidate, with $32.625MM owed over three years.
• Cubs: Easily Alfonso Soriano, owed $90MM over five years.
• Diamondbacks: I'll nominate Chris Young, who's owed $25.25MM over four years.  Chris Snyder at two years and $11.25MM would merit consideration.
• Dodgers: Manny Ramirez is owed $20MM this year, and the honeymoon is over.
• Giants: They'd have to wipe out the $83MM owed to Barry Zito over the next four years. That amount could become $94MM over five years.
• Indians: The Tribe is still on the hook for $40.25MM over three years for DH Travis Hafner.  It might be a while before we see a DH get a $50MM deal again.
• Mariners: Milton Bradley and has $21MM over two years would be on the chopping block, though taking on that deal allowed the Ms to move Carlos Silva.  If we exclude Bradley it might be Ian Snell at $4.25MM.
• Marlins: They're not paying Nate Robertson's contract, so there's really no fat to trim.
• Mets: How would you play this one?  You probably don't remove your ace Johan Santana, though he'll make $98.5MM over four years (not including deferrals).  Similar story for the $26.5MM owed to Francisco Rodriguez over two years.  Carlos Beltran is looking at $37MM over two years, and he still may be worth that.  The easy choices don't result in maximum savings: Oliver Perez at two years and $24MM and Luis Castillo at two years, $12MM.
• Nationals: They'd probably choose Cristian Guzman's $8MM.
• Orioles: I'll assume the Orioles would not remove a contract they brought on during the offseason.  Instead maybe they'd ditch Koji Uehara's $5MM or Ty Wigginton's $3.5MM.
• Padres: No obvious candidate.  Chris Young at $6.25MM would be a possiblity, though not if they feel he's primed for a solid, healthy year.
• Phillies: They'd be likely to erase Brad Lidge's two years and $24.5MM.
• Pirates: Ramon Vazquez, owed $2MM, has already been designated for assignment.
• Rangers: Michael Young will make $64MM over the next four years, though money is deferred.  Would the Rangers let this contract stand?
• Rays: They'd free up the $9MM owed to Pat Burrell.
• Reds: Closer Francisco Cordero is owed $25MM over the next two years.
• Red Sox: Would they get rid of the $12.5MM owed to David Ortiz or $12MM to Mike Lowell?
• Rockies: Even with the reworked deal, would the Rockies remove Todd Helton's contract?  Do they have regrets over Huston Street's three-year, $22.5MM extension, given his injury?  The $5.75MM owed to Jeff Francis?  The $7MM Manny Corpas gets over the next two years?
• Royals: They've got Jose Guillen at $12MM, or a more useful player in Gil Meche at two years, $24MM.
• Tigers: Miguel Cabrera's $126MM over six years is steep, but he'd be impossible to replace.  Magglio Ordonez gets $18MM this year and possibly $15MM in '11, but the Tigers passed on a chance to let him go.  Carlos Guillen would be a good choice at two years, $26MM; that would be more beneficial than removing a $12MM contract with Jeremy Bonderman or Dontrelle Willis.
• Twins: The reality is that they've have to consider Joe Nathan's $24.5MM over two years, especially if it's not insured.
• White Sox: Would they wipe out Alex Rios at $59.7MM over five years, or Scott Linebrink at $10.5MM over two?
• Yankees: They could remove a big commitment, like A.J. Burnett's $66MM over four years.  That'd make more sense than Jorge Posada at $26.2MM over two or Damaso Marte at $8.25MM over two.

The Major League Baseball Players Association is thinking about filing a collusion grievance charging owners with conspiring against free agents last winter, according to the Associated Press.  Union head Michael Weiner confirmed to the AP that there is an ongoing investigation.

"We have concerns about the operation of the post-2009 free agent market," Weiner said.  "We have been investigating that market. Our investigation is far along but not yet complete."

Agents for players have claimed that they have received multiple similar offers for free agent clients and have urged the union to speak up on the matter.

The union also alleged misconduct by teams following the 2008 season.  The two sides reached a standstill agreement, giving the players' association more time to decide whether to proceed with a grievance on that matter.

Meanwhile, the MLBPA also announced today that Opening Day salaries are up slightly from last year, according to Tom Singer of MLB.com.  The average player salary is $3.34MM compared to $3.31MM last season.

3:00pm:  USA Today, correcting an error in their original report, now say the average player salary this year is $3.27MM, an increase of less than one percent from last year.  

9:10am: The players on Opening Day rosters around the majors are making 17% less money this year than they did last year, according to USA Today. On average, players earned $3.2MM last year, but that figure is down to $2.7MM as the new season begins. Players are still earning lots, but their salaries dropped more this year than in any year since 1988, when USA Today started its survey. Let's run down some of the reasons why salaries are dropping:

• The weakened economy has slowed spending down for the past couple offseasons. Braves president John Schuerholz told USA Today that "the economy has affected all of us." When fans spend less, teams bring in less revenue and have less to spend on players.
• As Cubs outfielder Marlon Byrd points out in the article, teams are relying on lots of young talent. Players are at their cheapest before they hit free agency, so the emphasis on youth could be lowering salaries.
• Teams are more conscious of defensive stats and people like Bill James believe younger (and therefore cheaper) players tend to play better defense better than aging ones.
• Front offices are becoming more risk-averse and are less likely to hand out multi-year deals to anyone other than elite players.

Baseball is a numbers game and we use lots of stats here at MLBTR. Some of them are easy to understand (Albert Pujols hit 47 homers last year) and some of them aren't as simple (Pujols posted a 0.8 UZR/150 last year). So here's a guide to some stats you see here and elsewhere. It's not meant to be comprehensive; there are lots more useful stats than the ones that appear below, but these are some important ones:

• OBP – On-base percentage shows you the percentage of time a player reaches base. The league average usually hovers around .330 and last year was no exception (.331 in the NL and .336 in the AL). OBP is computed by adding hits, walks, and hit-by-pitches as the times on base, and dividing that by the sum of the player's at-bats, walks, hit-by-pitches, and sacrifice flies.
• SLG – Slugging percentage measures a player's extra base power. SLG is calculated by dividing a player's total bases by his at-bats. Power hitters like Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard regularly slug over .500, but league averages are usually closer to .420.
• You'll often see us list a player's batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage (always in that order) like this: .280/.340/.450.
• UZR/150 – Ultimate Zone Rating is a defensive metric that estimates the runs a defender saves or costs his team. UZR/150 shows a player's impact per 150 games played. Check out this two–part explanation for more detail and keep in mind that it's best to look at multiple seasons when evaluating a player's defense with UZR/150.
• K/9 – The number of batters a pitcher strikes out per nine innings pitched. Last year pitchers struck out 7.0 batters per nine innings.
• BB/9 – The number of batters a pitcher walks per nine innings pitched. Last year pitchers walked 3.5 batters per nine innings.

Check out Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus for lots more stats and check out our transactions glossary and the one at Cot's for explanations of transactions terms.