10 Worst Free Agent Signings Of The Offseason
A few weeks ago we presented MLBTR's 10 Best Free Agent Signings Of The Offseason. It's only fitting that we also name our ten worst before the season begins. Only Major League deals are included, and the players are listed in order of contract amount. Keep in mind that a good player can have a bad contract.
- Matt Holliday, Cardinals: seven years, $120MM. In terms of production, Holliday was the best available free agent. The problem with the contract is that there was not another serious bidder, and Holliday's best alternatives at the time of the signing were in the one-year, $18MM range. At the very least, hardball tactics with Scott Boras might've eliminated the seventh guaranteed year. Cardinals fans might not care now, but will in 2016. The Mets' four-year, $66MM deal with Jason Bay gets an honorable mention in the category of teams bidding against themselves.
- Placido Polanco, Phillies: three years, $18MM. I'd have no beef with a one-year deal in the $5-6MM range, as that'd fit with contracts signed by comparable free agent infielders. The Phillies tacked on two more years for the 34-year-old Polanco, with plan to make him a regular third baseman for the first time since 2002.
- Brandon Lyon, Astros: three years, $15MM. Assuming his shoulder injury is a non-issue, most clubs would be happy to have Lyon working the seventh and eighth innings. But similar to the Phillies and Polanco, the Astros had to have this reliever above all others. The result: the only three-year contract given to a reliever this offseason.
- Jason Marquis, Nationals: two years, $15MM. Marquis takes the ball every fifth day and typically pitches like a #4-5 starter should. I don't see what he offers the 2010 Nationals that Doug Davis and Braden Looper didn't, and those pitchers would take one-year deals at a lower salary. I don't buy the argument that the Nationals needed to overpay to import Marquis. Other pitchers could've provided a similar benefit for much less.
- Mark DeRosa, Giants: two years, $12MM. DeRosa's last contract was a pleasant surprise, but now he's 35 and coming off wrist surgery. He's still useful, but the Giants needed to find an impact bat with their free agent budget.
- Fernando Rodney, Angels: two years, $11MM. Without the 37 saves, Rodney wouldn't have gotten anything near this contract. He's useful, but has lousy control and dealt with shoulder problems the previous two seasons.
- John Grabow, Cubs: two years, $7.5MM. As if Carlos Marmol's control problems weren't bad enough, the Cubs locked up Grabow and his 5.0 BB/9 for two years. Grabow strikes out lefties at a solid clip, but doesn't offer much beyond that.
- Jason Kendall, Royals: two years, $6MM. The main blemish on Dayton Moore's offseason, Kendall received an extra year for no apparent reason. The Nationals did the same with Ivan Rodriguez.
- Coco Crisp, Athletics: one year, $5.25MM. Crisp played just 49 games last year, and eventually needed surgery on both shoulders. Does his projected center field defense justify this kind of guarantee? The A's were in a risky mood this winter, also guaranteeing $10MM to Ben Sheets.
- Alex Cora, Mets: one year, $2MM. Scott Boras makes his third appearance on this list. Despite a lousy season, Cora avoided a pay cut. Instead of signing Cora in November, the Mets could've displayed patience and saved a million bucks.
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2010 NL Rookie Of The Year Predictions
Raise your hand if you had Florida's Chris Coghlan as your preseason NL ROY pick. I'm not seeing too many hands! I'll make the conventional pick for 2010 with Jason Heyward, but here's a bigger field to consider:
Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman, Buster Posey, Pedro Alvarez, Alcides Escobar, Madison Bumgarner, Starlin Castro, Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez, Jason Castro, Jenrry Mejia, Jhoulys Chacin, Mike Leake, Fernando Martinez, Mat Gamel, Drew Storen, Andrew Cashner, Mike Stanton, Jay Jackson, Jose Tabata, Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey, Eric Young Jr., David Freese, Ian Desmond, Jaime Garcia, Lance Lynn, Jon Niese, Yonder Alonso, Brad Lincoln, Travis Wood, Daniel McCutchen, Tommy Manzella, Scott Elbert
Let us know additional names to consider, as well as your picks.
Offseason Free Agent Spending By Team
A total of $972MM was spent on Major League free agent contracts this offseason, led by the Red Sox at $137MM. The Marlins are on bottom, with no big league free agent contracts signed. Each team spent about $32MM on average. Check out the list below, and contact us if you notice any errors.
- Red Sox – $137,030,000
- Cardinals – $129,450,000
- Mets – $75,350,000
- Brewers – $55,650,000
- Angels – $52,000,000
- Mariners – $51,325,000
- Braves – $41,350,000
- Reds – $37,070,000
- Giants – $34,750,000
- Phillies – $30,850,000
- Astros – $29,900,000
- Nationals – $29,900,000
- Cubs – $25,800,000
- Tigers – $23,950,000
- Orioles – $23,900,000
- Rangers – $22,500,000
- Athletics – $20,900,000
- Blue Jays – $20,500,000
- Yankees – $19,800,000
- Diamondbacks – $19,100,000
- Royals – $18,600,000
- Twins – $14,400,000
- Rockies – $13,100,000
- Dodgers – $11,500,000
- Padres – $8,675,000
- White Sox – $8,375,000
- Pirates – $8,125,000
- Rays – $5,300,000
- Indians – $2,850,000
- Marlins – $0
What Can We Expect In April?
As Spring Training winds down and Opening Day draws near, let's dig up some of the more interesting stories on MLBTR from April of 2007, 2008, and 2009 to see what kind of news we can expect in the coming weeks..
- On April 11th, 2007, the Twins made a low-ball offer to Johan Santana. Minnesota offered their superstar pitcher a two-year extension for $36MM, plus a club option for 2011. Tim summed it up perfectly when he wrote, "I know you have to start somewhere with negotiations, but the Twins could essentially double their offer and it would still be well below market value." Santana later denied that the Twins made such an offer.
- We saw a handful of extensions agreed upon in the coming days, including a three-year, $33MM extension for Jake Westbrook and a two-year, $7MM contract for Ryan Freel.
- The Braves gave John Smoltz a contract extension towards the end of that month. The deal gave him $14MM in 2008 with vesting options for '09 and '10 for a similar rate. Smoltz pitched 28 innings in 2008, terminating his deal at season's end.
- Now we fast forward to April of 2008, where Evan Longoria signed a long-term deal with the Rays early in his rookie season. Though Longoria signed with very little Major League experience, this has become the game's most team-friendly contract.
- Scott Hatteberg said that he would welcome a trade after being slotted as the understudy to Joey Votto.
- Kenji Johjima inked a three-year, $24MM extension with the M's, only to bolt for the Hanshin Tigers in the fall of 2009.
- Toronto was fed up with Frank Thomas and released him, leaving them on the hook for more than $7MM. The thrifty A's signed the Big Hurt to a cheap deal.
- Matt Morris retired from baseball soon after being released by the Pirates.
- The Rockies and the Tigers closed out that month with a rare April trade, swapping pitchers Jason Grilli and Zach Simons.
- In April of 2009, Indians GM Mark Shapiro denied that the club was willing to part with Cliff Lee. Lee would continue to be a member of the Tribe – until right before the trade deadline.
- The White Sox made what proved to be a great pickup when they signed Scott Podsednik to a minor league deal.
- Manny Ramirez, as he is wont to do, decided to be Manny and stated publicly that he would like to return to Cleveland before the end of his career.
- There were plenty of interesting signings in this month – Chad Gaudin hooked on with San Diego, Ron Villone signed with the Nats, and Dallas McPherson joined the Giants.
Could you see the Cardinals presenting Albert Pujols with an offer well below market value, similar to how the Twins handed Johan in 2007? Do you think the Padres, similar to the Indians last season, will shoot down Adrian Gonzalez trade talk, only to deal him closer to the deadline? Let's hear your thoughts.
Rotation Spending By Team
I've compiled 2010 starting rotation spending by team; details can be found in this spreadsheet. Buyouts (for example, the $2.5MM the Dodgers owe to Jason Schmidt) and players not in 2010 rotations (Kei Igawa) are not included in the figures below. If a team is paying part of the salary of another club's starter, like in the case of Roy Halladay, that payment is accounted for only on the receiving team. If you find any errors, please contact us.
- Yankees – $63,157,650
- Cubs – $50,775,000
- Red Sox – $42,263,500
- Mets – $38,087,500
- White Sox – $36,200,000
- Cardinals – $35,925,000
- Giants – $33,850,000
- Tigers – $32,670,000
- Phillies – $31,805,000
- Braves – $31,467,000
- Angels – $29,965,000
- Royals – $25,110,000
- Reds – $24,700,000
- Astros – $23,916,000
- Rockies – $23,500,000
- Diamondbacks – $22,008,925
- Dodgers – $21,679,000
- Mariners – $20,550,000
- Brewers – $18,565,000
- Indians – $17,115,500
- Padres – $15,355,000
- Rangers – $14,181,090
- Orioles – $13,668,125
- Athletics – $13,210,000
- Twins – $12,790,000
- Nationals – $10,224,000
- Pirates – $10,013,500
- Marlins – $9,645,000
- Rays – $9,473,333
- Blue Jays – $4,085,000
- Approximately $736MM will be spent on the 2010 salaries of the 150 projected members of Opening Day rotations. That's an average of $4.9MM per pitcher.
- On average, a team will spend $24.5MM on its rotation in 2010. The median figure is $22.8MM.
- The White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Angels, Rockies, and Giants don't have any projected starters earning less than $1MM.
- The Blue Jays will pay more to Halladay in 2010 than they will pay their entire rotation.
- Thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the salary data.
Best Minor League Deals Of The Offseason
Garrett Jones, Kevin Correia, Juan Uribe, Scott Podsednik, Kiko Calero, Brian Sanches, Jonny Gomes, Ronald Belisario – all were signed to minor league deals and had productive 2009 seasons. Candidates for the best minor league deals of the 2009-10 offseason:
- D.J. Carrasco, Pirates: Carrasco led all of baseball in relief innings in 2009, so maybe teams think he's worn down. He's capable of an ERA around 4.00, and could fill a swingman role.
- Joaquin Benoit, Rays: Benoit had rotator cuff surgery in January of '09. He'll be a big asset if his '07 skills return.
- Kiko Calero, Mets: Despite whiffing 10.4 per nine in '09 with a 1.95 ERA, concerns over Calero's shoulder prevented a big league offer from coming in.
- Shelley Duncan, Indians: Duncan hit 30 home runs in Triple A last year and could hit 20 for the Indians. The Braves' Mitch Jones and Pirates' Brian Myrow, also signed to minor league deals, are cut from the same cloth.
- Will Ohman, Orioles: Ohman had a lost 2009 due to a shoulder injury, but he dominated lefties in '08. Also keep an eye on Brian Shouse, a lefty reliever signed by the Red Sox.
- Endy Chavez, Rangers: The Rangers didn't risk much to see if Chavez's world-class defense will hold up after surgery to repair a torn ACL.
- Rich Hill, Cardinals: Hill's walk problems have continued in Spring Training, but the prospect of another '07 makes him intriguing. The Cards also snagged infielder Ruben Gotay, who posted a .429 OBP in Triple A.
- Jose Veras, Marlins: Who would be surprised if Veras gives the Marlins 70 productive innings this year? Jesus Colome (Mariners), Seth McClung (Marlins), and Erick Threets (White Sox) are other relievers signed on minor league deals who work in the 93-94 mph range.
- Hank Blalock, Rays: He hit 25 home runs last year, and could be useful if he stays healthy.
- Jose Arredondo, Reds: Arredondo is an investment for 2011, as he'll spend '10 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
- More decent veteran arms inked to minor league deals: Scott Proctor (Braves), Rodrigo Lopez (Diamondbacks), Jeff Weaver (Dodgers), Guillermo Mota (Giants), Todd Wellemeyer (Giants), and Justin Speier (Rockies).
10 Best Free Agent Signings Of The Offseason
It's time to present MLBTR's ten best free agent signings of the offseason. Note that only Major League deals are included. The players are listed in order of contract amount.
- Joel Pineiro, Angels: two years, $18MM. At the advice of Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan, Pineiro tried a sinker in Spring Training and went on to lead all of baseball in walk and groundball rate. There are concerns over Pineiro's ability to reach 200 innings and succeed without Duncan, but the Angels signed a potential #2-3 starter and didn't take on a lot of risk.
- Adrian Beltre, Red Sox: one year, $10MM. Beltre was confident enough in his abilities this year to turn down a pair of three-year, $24MM offers from other clubs. He's arguably the best defensive third baseman in the game, and he may return to his 25 home run ways in Boston.
- Noel Arguelles, Royals: five years, $7MM. The 20-year-old Cuban lefty is the equivalent of an extra first-round pick for the Royals. True, he's no match for Aroldis Chapman, but he cost a quarter of what the Reds paid.
- Adam LaRoche, Diamondbacks: one year, $6MM. LaRoche should provide Arizona a .350 OBP and .490 SLG at a fair price.
- Orlando Hudson, Twins: one year, $5MM. Even if his defense is slipping, it appears the Twins added a couple of wins here.
- Colby Lewis, Rangers: two years, $5MM. The Rangers weren't the only team to notice Lewis' two years of dominance in Japan, as the A's and Twins also made two-year offers. This was a low-risk, high-reward signing by the Rangers.
- Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks: one year, $2.35MM. Johnson was supplanted by Martin Prado as the Braves' starting second baseman last season and signed with Arizona after being non-tendered. His arbitration-eligibility for 2011 is nearly as good as a club option. If Johnson approaches his .273/.351/.443 CHONE projection, he'll be well worth the D'Backs' investment.
- Gregg Zaun, Brewers: one year, $2.15MM. In a world where Jason Kendall, Ivan Rodriguez, and Brian Schneider snagged two-year deals, the Brewers got Zaun for one year at a lesser salary, plus a club option. Unlike those catchers, Zaun is able to muster up a .340 OBP.
- Chien-Ming Wang, Nationals: one year, $2MM. Though he may not be ready until May or later, Wang represents the right kind of risk for the Nationals. If he rediscovers a 60% groundball rate, the Nats won't be non-tendering him after the season.
- Felipe Lopez, Cardinals: one year, $1MM. Scott Boras got Lopez $3.5MM coming off a decent '08 season, so he seemed in line for more after a fine '09. However, Lopez tired of waiting around and switched to Beverly Hills Sports Council before signing with the Cards at a steep discount. Utility players and half-season pitchers received larger guarantees.
Meet The MLBTR Writing Team
MLB Trade Rumors employs a team of writers to bring you the latest hot stove news and analysis. Let’s meet the team:
Tim Dierkes started MLB Trade Rumors as a hobby in 2005, and has since written over 12,000 posts as MLBTR grew into baseball’s most popular hot stove website as well as his full-time job. MLBTR has received over 3.1 billion pageviews since its inception and is a favorite of baseball writers, executives, agents, players, and fans everywhere. Tim currently lives in the Chicago suburbs with his wife and four children. He is a lifelong Cubs fan, but swears it does not affect his objectivity on MLBTR. Follow him on Twitter: @timdierkes.
Steve Adams is a full-time staff writer for MLB Trade Rumors. MLBTR’s longest-tenured writer, Steve grew up in the Twin Cities and currently resides in Minnesota. He is a graduate of St. Mary’s University of Minnesota, where he studied English Literature with a Writing Emphasis and Public Relations (when his fantasy baseball schedule permitted). Steve has been a baseball fan since he can remember, and is thankful to be (barely) old enough to have vivid memories of his beloved Twins’ most recent World Series title in 1991. Steve has been writing for MLBTR since May of 2008, and began providing fantasy analysis for MLB.com in May of 2011. He has also written about the Twins for SB Nation’s Twinkie Town and fears that his voice may never fully recover from 2009’s Game 163 tiebreaker against the Tigers. You can follow him on Twitter: @Adams_Steve.
Anthony Franco gave up his dream of being an MLB player when he went hitless all season his final year of youth baseball. A Buffalo, NY native, Anthony was a Cubs fan growing up but lost track of baseball for a few years once he stopped playing. He rediscovered his passion for the sport in college at the University at Buffalo, where he got his first opportunity to write about baseball for Fantrax, a fantasy sports site. A part-time writer at MLBTR since 2019, Anthony joined the full-time staff in June 2021. Anthony graduated from UB with a history degree in 2017 and graduated from Boston College Law School in 2020. You can find him on Twitter discussing baseball, complaining about the Las Vegas Raiders, and raving about the occasional 1950’s movie: @affranco10.
Darragh McDonald grew up in the Toronto area and got to watch the Blue Jays win the World Series when he was 9 and 10 years old, thus dooming him to a lifetime of baseball fandom. He started writing for MLBTR in March of 2020, which somehow got nudged out of the worldwide headlines that month. A graduate of the Ryerson University Film Studies program, Darragh has also occasionally worked in television and written bad screenplays.
Mark Polishuk has been part of the MLBTR crew since October 2009. He has also written about baseball, soccer and hockey for such outlets as Field Level Media, ESPN.com, The Boston Herald, The Canadian Press, The11.ca, Plastic Pitch, The Sports Xchange, The New York Post, and the official websites of both Major League Baseball and Major League Soccer. A native of London, Ontario, Mark holds a BA in English/Film Studies from the University Of Western Ontario. His greatest on-field achievement was performing an unassisted triple play during a softball game in eighth grade gym class — “Just like Bill Wambsganss!” Mark yelled at the time, a reference lost on his classmates.
Nick Deeds grew up in the Chicagoland area and has joined in his family’s generations-long tradition of Cubs fandom as long as he can remember. He was in high school when the Cubs finally ended their World Series drought in 2016, and since then his love of baseball has grown to include the entire sport, rather than just his home team. He began writing for MLBTR shortly after graduating from Western Illinois University with a degree in Political Science.
Leo Morgenstern grew up in Toronto but fell in love with baseball through Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and the rest of the 2008 Phillies. Since graduating from the University of Toronto in 2020, he has written about baseball all over the internet, covering the Phillies for the dedicated team blogs at SB Nation and Sports Illustrated and covering the game at large for FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Just Baseball, Pitcher List, and, most recently, MLB Trade Rumors. When he isn’t writing about, reading about, or actually watching baseball, he tries his best to be funny for The Beaverton, Canada’s least-trusted source of news. You can follow him on the website he still refers to as Twitter @morgensternmlb.
@CloserNews
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