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Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Now Available

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5,966 people submitted entries in MLBTR’s annual free agent prediction contest!  The contest leaderboard is now available.

The goal of the contest has always been to see who can do the best at predicting where MLB free agents sign – a very difficult endeavor.  However, in the past I have always allowed for freebies – if a player signs during the week or so that the contest is open, you were able to change your pick to the correct team, and it would count as correct.  Typically this has only been for a couple of players.

Though some people like the freebie simply to reward diligence, that’s not why I’ve done it that way in the past.  Instead, I’ve left signed players in the contest because we didn’t have the technical resources to alter the leaderboard midstream.  Now, we have that person, and removing the six signed (or in the case of Clayton Kershaw, close to a deal for three weeks) players from the contest was easy.  Six would have been an abnormally high number of freebies, as well, so it served as a tipping point for me.

Additionally, some contest participants do not receive the confirmation email from Google Forms that allows them to modify their picks, so those people were missing out on freebies for a technical reason I was not able to solve.

I changed my mind on freebies because I think it’s better this way, and always doing something a certain way isn’t a good reason to continue.  While this change is going to lower batting averages for all participants (including participating MLBTR staff!), nine prognosticators still maintain a perfect batting average after the signings of Mike Clevinger and Jose Abreu.

Nathan Eovaldi, Matt Strahm Drawing Strong Interest

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The markets for right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and left-hander Matt Strahm are “heating up,” according to Rob Bradford of WEEI. He speculates that one of them could sign prior to the Winter Meetings, which begin on December 4.

Bradford doesn’t specifically link any teams to the two hurlers, but it’s not surprising that they are generating lots of interest. Both of them have shown various levels of quality in the past but neither is likely to command a massive contract, meaning very few teams would be priced out of their bidding. Given that just about every team could use some extra arms, it makes sense that many of them would be kicking the tires.

Eovaldi is an established mid-rotation starter but has shown himself capable of pushing his production towards the front end. In 2021, he made 32 starts for the Red Sox, throwing 182 1/3 innings in the process. His 3.75 ERA might seem to be merely decent, but his 25.5% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate were both a few ticks better than average. Advanced metrics felt he deserved much better, with his 2.79 FIP almost a full run better than his ERA. FanGraphs wins above replacement, which is FIP-based, gave Eovaldi 5.7 on the season. That was the third-highest tally among all MLB pitchers that year, trailing only Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler.

However, he’s not coming off the ideal platform year, as back and shoulder injuries limited him to 20 starts and 109 1/3 innings in 2022. He kept his ERA down to 3.87 but his velocity was down in the second half and his strikeout rate dropped to 22.4%. This isn’t the first time injuries have been a concern, as he’s twice had Tommy John surgery and also had surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow in 2019. He’s also turning 33 in February and has been tagged with a qualifying offer, tying him to draft pick compensation. Those factors will put a damper on his market, with MLBTR predicting a two-year, $34MM contract. The free agent market has aces like Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon, but they are all likely to command nine-figure deals. The next tier features many mid-rotation options like Chris Bassitt, Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and others, but Eovaldi is one of the more interesting upside plays in that group.

As for Strahm, he’s proven himself to be a capable left-handed reliever, which is often more than enough to garner free agent interest on its own. But he’s also hoping to find an opportunity as a starter this offseason, which could expand his market even wider. He hasn’t made multiple starts in a season since 2019, but Michael Lorenzen hadn’t made more than three starts in a season since 2015 when he set out to free agency looking for a starting gig and signed a one-year, $6.75MM deal with the Angels a year ago.

Strahm has a somewhat similar profile and could potentially secure himself a deal in that range, though it’s not a guarantee he’ll take that path. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported today that Strahm is more likely to secure a bullpen job given the weakness of the free agent market in that department. As Rosenthal points out, the other southpaw relievers like Taylor Rogers, Will Smith and Brad Hand all had concerning performances in 2022, while Matt Moore was great but after many poor seasons prior to that. Those factors could lead to Strahm getting a nice offer to be a team’s primary bullpen lefty, which might be tempting enough that he forgoes his plan to jump into a rotation again. He posted a 3.83 ERA in 44 2/3 innings this year for the Red Sox, striking out 26.9% of batters faced while walking 8.8%.

Craig Stammen Plans To Pitch In 2023

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Right-hander Craig Stammen is a free agent and will turn 39 years old in March. However, that doesn’t mean he’s hanging up his spikes. “I just love playing,” Stammen tells Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. “I wasn’t ready. I want to go out a little better than I went out last year. I’m going to try to give it another go.”

Stammen has been a mainstay of the bullpen in San Diego over the past six years. In the four full seasons from 2017 to 2021, he logged at least 79 innings in each campaign and kept his ERA between 2.73 and 3.29. He doesn’t generally get huge strikeout totals, but he does induce a lot of ground balls and limits free passes. He hasn’t had a walk rate above 5.6% since 2017 and has posted a ground ball rate of 45% or higher in each season of his career.

He seemed on track for another solid year in 2022 before a shoulder injury got in the way. He had a 3.34 ERA through 32 1/3 innings when he went on the IL in July due to right shoulder inflammation. He missed about two months, returning to the team in September, but didn’t finish strong. He logged another 8 1/3 innings down the stretch but posted an 8.64 ERA in that time.

It’s possible that he was still dealing with some lingering effects of the injury or was perhaps just rusty after the absence. Stammen himself doesn’t seem to think so, however. “I felt great at the end of the season,” Stammen said. “I’ve continued to throw. … I feel too good to not keep playing.”

It’s possible that Stammen returns to the Padres club he’s been with for the past six years, but Acee also notes that Stammen has begun the process of speaking to other teams. The free agent market for relievers has been robust in the early parts of this offseason, with Edwin Diaz getting $102MM over five years, Robert Suarez getting $46MM over five years and Rafael Montero getting $34.5MM over three. Not all teams will want to spend at that level, however, and some will inevitably look to other options. The last time Stammen was a free agent was going into 2020, when he and the Padres agreed to a two-year deal with a $9MM guarantee and a club option for 2022 that they eventually exercised. Based on Stammen’s age and shoulder injury, he will likely be limited to one-year deals this time around.

Sign Up For The Free MLBTR Newsletter

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The MLB Trade Rumors Newsletter recently celebrated its first birthday!  The newsletter is written by Cliff Corcoran, who has an extensive resume contributing to Sports Illustrated, The Athletic, Baseball Prospectus, and other outlets.  Cliff will take you through the hot stove highlights of the previous day, boiling down MLBTR’s posts into the essential stories.

 

This free newsletter comes out Monday through Friday in the morning.  Be sure to check your inbox and click the link in the confirmation email.  If you’re not seeing the box to input your email, you can simply click this link to sign up.

Hall Of Fame Announces 2023 Era Committee Candidates

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The National Baseball Hall of Fame this morning announced the eight players who’ll be considered for induction by the Era Committee, formerly known as the Veteran’s Committee. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Albert Belle, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy and Rafael Palmeiro will each be under consideration. Any player who receives votes from 12 members of the 16-person panel will be inducted into the Hall of Fame, along with anyone selected by 75% of the voters on the Baseball Writers Association of America ballot.

Bonds, Clemens and Schilling are the most notable and long-discussed of the group. All three fell off the writers’ ballot last winter after failing to reach 75% of the vote for a 10th consecutive year, thereby exhausting their eligibility. They’ll immediately garner renewed consideration, this time from the Era Committee after their progress on the writers’ ballot stalled — or in Schilling’s case, dropped after he attempted to remove himself from the ballot as his support dwindled following a number of controversial public statements — towards the end of their time under consideration.

Clemens and Bonds, of course, have slam-dunk Hall of Fame statistics but were left outside the Hall due to their ties to performance-enhancing drugs. Both were named as alleged steroid users in the 2007 Mitchell Report. Palmeiro’s HOF candidacy was also derailed by PED ties, in his case a 2005 suspension for a failed test that came a few months after he denied ever taking steroids during Congressional testimony the preceding spring. Palmeiro spent four seasons on the writers’ ballot but fell off in 2014 after receiving less than the 5% of the vote needed to remain under consideration.

Belle lasted two seasons on the writers’ ballot, falling below the 5% threshold in 2007. Mattingly, McGriff and Murphy all spent the maximum allotted time under consideration by the BBWAA but never crossed the necessary 75% threshold. Mattingly’s vote share peaked at 28.2% in his first year on the ballot. Murphy topped out at 23.2%, while McGriff’s vote share hit its apex at 39.8% during his final year in 2019.

The Era Committee’s purpose is to induct players who may have slipped through the cracks on the BBWAA ballot. It has historically cast a wider net for induction than has the Writers Association. This year’s crop of players are part of the “Contemporary Baseball Era,” which considers players whose primary contributions to the sport have come since 1980. Voting will be conducted on December 4.

131 Players Reach Free Agency

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As announced by the MLB Players Association, 131 MLB players have officially reached free agency this morning. This list, including names like Aaron Judge, Jose Abreu, and Edwin Diaz, excludes players such as Jacob deGrom and Carlos Correa, who have until November 10th to decide on their opt-out. The Dodgers lead the list with ten free agents, headlined by starter Clayton Kershaw, while the Mets and the Yankees each have nine free agents. Conversely, both the Diamondbacks and the Marlins have no free-agent decisions released today.

Broken down in Mark Polishuk’s 2022-23 Offseason Preview, all eligible free players can officially file for free agency today. However, players who file for free agency are only able to negotiate with their current team. Before the free agent market officially opens on November 10th, teams and players must make decisions regarding club options, opt-outs, mutual options, and qualifying offers. The trade market also re-opens opens today. 

A complete list of 2022-23 MLB Free Agents can be found here.

Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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As part of the new collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the MLBPA allowed for the creation of an international amateur draft.  As this was something MLB was pushing for, the proposed tradeoff was the elimination of free agent compensation.  The two sides reached their overall CBA in March, but included a July 25th deadline for the possible international draft/free agent compensation trade.  The two sides failed to reach an agreement by that July deadline, so the qualifying offer system for free agent compensation that was agreed to 11 years ago remains in place.

The qualifying offer is set at $19.65MM this offseason, and by mid-November we’ll know which players received and turned down a QO.  Certain star free agents, including Aaron Judge and Trea Turner, are locks to receive and turn down a qualifying offer.  A dozen others could easily join them.

If those players sign with new teams, here’s a look at the draft picks each signing club would lose.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Padres

If any of these six teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2023 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM.

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Guardians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Mariners, Rays

These 14 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty.  The Twins and Mariners are realistic possibilities to sign a qualified free agent, while the Orioles and a few other revenue sharing recipients may lurk as dark horses.

All Other Teams: Braves, Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals

These 10 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground.

What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.

David Robertson Plans To Pitch In 2023

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Veteran reliever David Robertson recently expressed his intent to pitch during the 2023 season, stating that he feels “feels like next season will be a lot easier and I’ll be more prepared,” as reported by The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham.

After pitching to a 2.76 ERA in 626 2/3 innings (with 137 saves) from 2009-2018, Robertson joined the Phillies ahead of the 2019 season on a two-year, $23MM deal with a $12MM club option for the 2021 season ($2MM buyout). However, after only seven appearances, Robertson underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery and suffered a setback during his rehab, forcing him to miss the entire 2020 season. His club option was subsequently declined by the Phillies.

After missing the prior two seasons, the righty pivoted to the Olympics and helped Team USA qualify for the Tokyo Games. In the break before the games, the righty signed with the High Point Rockers of the Atlantic League and pitched a handful of innings. Returning home with a silver medal, Robertson joined the Rays on a major league contract and reported to Triple-A Durham before joining the major league team in September. With the Rays, Robertson pitched 12 innings, allowing 6 earned runs, and striking out 16 of the 50 batters he faced. He was selected to the Rays’ post-season roster, pitching four scoreless innings in the ALDS against the Red Sox.

After the 2021 season, Robertson signed a one-year, $3.5MM contract with the Cubs, with up to $1.5MM in incentives. In Chicago, Robertson recaptured his 2000-2018 form, pitching to a 2.23 ERA with 14 saves in 40 1/3 innings, with a robust 30.9% strikeout rate and 47.8% groundball rate — albeit with a high 11.5% walk rate.

Robertson’s strong performance on a rebuilding team made him a top trade target at the deadline, and on August 2nd he was shipped to Philadelphia in exchange for pitching prospect Ben Brown. Robertson continued his strong work with the Phillies, pitching to a 2.70 ERA in 23 1/3 innings with a 30.3% strikeout rate. However, Robertson’s walk rate increased to a high 16.2% and his groundball rate fell to 43.4%.

After missing the NLDS due to a hurt calf suffered celebrating Bryce Harper’s home run, Robertson returned to the Phillies’ bullpen, pitching 2 2/3 innings in the NLCS, allowing one run, and pitching a scoreless inning (so far) in the World Series. Robertson is a free agent when the 2022 season concludes, and joins a deep reliever market including Aroldis Chapman, Edwin Diaz, Kenley Jansen, and teammate Corey Knebel.

Pirates Outright Jose Godoy

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The Pirates have sent catcher Jose Godoy outright to Triple-A Indianapolis, per his MLB transactions page. Godoy was designated for assignment last week. The 27-year-old can now become a minor league free agent.

Godoy has made a handful of appearances in the majors over the past two seasons for the Mariners, Twins and Pirates, but struggled to hit much. In a combined 62 plate appearances between 2021-22, Godoy tallied just seven hits while striking out 23 times. This year at Triple-A, he hit .227/.290/.364 with six home runs across 53 games for the Twins’ and Pirates’ affiliates.

Originally signed as an amateur free agent by the Cardinals in 2011, Godoy labored through the minors for eight seasons before being released in 2020. The Mariners picked him shortly after and he cracked their MLB roster early in the 2021 season and has bounced round the majors since. While he’s not hit in his brief stint in the big leagues, there should still be a market for him to latch on to a team as minor league catching depth in 2023.

Beau Burrows Elects Free Agency

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After being sent outright to Triple-A by the Dodgers, pitcher Beau Burrows has elected free agency, per his MLB transactions page. As Burrows has already been outrighted more than once in his career, he had the opportunity to reject the assignment and opt for free agency.

Burrows, 26, pitched the entire 2022 season at the Dodgers Triple-A affiliate Oklahoma, posting a 7.18 ERA across 100 1/3 innings. He initially worked out of the starting rotation, but his struggles saw him demoted to the bullpen. As has been the case for much of his short career, he struggled to keep the ball in the park, surrendering 18 home runs during the season. He also walked batters 20% of the time against a 12.7% strikeout rate.

The 2015 first-round pick for Detroit has had brief stints in the majors for both the Tigers and Twins in 2020 and 2021. Neither of those stints proved successful, as he pitched to a combined 10.70 ERA across 17 2/3 innings with eight home runs given up in that time.

The former top-100 prospect will hit the open market and hope to latch on with another team as a minor league depth option in 2023.

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