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Projected Super Two Cutoff

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 13, 2012 at 9:48am CDT

The cutoff for super two players following the 2012 season now projects to be two years and 139 days of service time, according to CAA (Twitter link). Earlier in the 2012 season, the agency had projected a super two cutoff of two years and 134 days. 

Super two status entitles certain players to four years of arbitration eligibility, rather than the usual three. As a result, players who earn the super two designation generally earn more than their peers. Under baseball's new collective bargaining agreement, 22% of players qualify as super twos. This represents an increase from 17% and helps explain why the cutoff is lower than it was a year ago.

The following players will finish the season with less than two years and 139 days of service time: Justin Smoak, Danny Valencia, Michael Brantley, Jordan Schafer, Giancarlo Stanton, Stephen Strasburg, Daniel Hudson, Dan Runzler, Andrew Cashner and Alexi Ogando. These players don't project as super twos. 

Michael Saunders, Alex Burnett and Esmil Rogers would qualify for super two status if the cutoff is two years and 134 days, but not if it's two years and 139 days. Meanwhile, Tyler Colvin should have exactly two years and 139 days of service when the 2012 season ends. All players that are tied at the cutoff get super two status under baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement.

A year ago CAA correctly anticipated that the 2011 cutoff would be two years and 146 days of service time. The official cutoff date can't be determined until the season ends.

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Top Free Agent Infielders

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 12, 2012 at 4:20pm CDT

Each year's free agent class has its strengths and weaknesses. For example, last offseason's class featured a pair of elite first basemen and more shortstop depth than usual. FanGraphs unveiled its free agent leaderboards today and they offer a position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. 

As Dave Cameron noted on Twitter, this year’s group is especially deep in the outfield. Allow me to add to that observation: it’s especially deep in the outfield and especially shallow on the infield. Here’s a look at the top ten free agent infielders (no designated hitters or catchers) ranked by FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement. 

  1. Adam LaRoche, Nationals, 3.1 WAR – LaRoche’s contract includes a $10MM mutual option for 2013. He would like to re-sign with the Nationals.
  2. Jeff Keppinger, Rays, 2.0 WAR – Keppinger could be looking at a two-year deal in this market.
  3. Brandon Inge, Athletics, 1.5 WAR – Inge rebounded to put together a solid season after being released by the Tigers earlier in the year.
  4. Marco Scutaro, Giants, 1.5 WAR – Scutaro figures to be in demand this offseason, but he isn’t adding the same offensive value he did a few years ago.
  5. Kevin Youkilis, White Sox, 1.4 WAR – Youkilis’ contract includes a $13MM club option for 2013.
  6. Eric Chavez, Yankees, 1.2 WAR – We’re getting into backup territory here. No disrespect to Chavez, who has had an excellent career and continues to add value, but it’s hard to believe he’s the sixth-best free agent infielder out there.
  7. Mark Reynolds, Orioles, 1.0 WAR – The hot-hitting Reynolds offers more power than any free agent infielder except LaRoche with 21 home runs. The Orioles have an $11MM club option for 2013.
  8. Ronny Cedeno, Mets, 1.0 WAR – One of the top ten free agent infielders available this winter is Cedeno, the Mets' backup shortstop/second baseman.
  9. Scott Rolen, Reds, 0.9 WAR – Once a force on offense and defense, Rolen can no longer be counted on for 100-plus games.
  10. Adam Kennedy, Dodgers, 0.8 WAR – To put 0.8 wins above replacement in context it's the ninth-best total in Kennedy's career. Yet it's enough for him to place among the top ten infielders available.

The contract options for Jhonny Peralta and Robinson Cano figure to be exercised, so those players aren't included above.

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How To Use MLBTR

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 12, 2012 at 12:55pm CDT

An explanation of the many ways to enjoy MLB Trade Rumors:

  • If the main site doesn't load perfectly on your cell phone, try the more mobile-friendly mlbtraderumors.mobi.  It's a simple page that shows you just the headlines and lets you click through to what you want to read.
  • If you're an iPhone user, be sure to pick up our app for the latest news and rumors. MLBTR just introduced an Android app as well.
  • If you want only the hard news in the form of transactions, our transactions page is the ticket.  You can also get only the transactions via Twitter or RSS. 
  • To return to the main page at any time, just click on the title or the Home button on the navigation bar below the title. 
  • The navigation bar will cover many of your needs.  Use the About dropdown to learn about this site or any of its writers. 
  • The Contact button takes you to a page where you can write an email message to the MLBTR writers.  If you have a link to a rumor we've missed, please send it in through the Contact page!  Also use the Contact page to inquire about advertising on MLBTR.
  • The Archives dropdown shows you 15 months worth.  If you need to go back further, click on Site Map at the very bottom of the page.  Site Map also lists out every MLBTR post category, including players, teams, and features.
  • The Tools dropdown takes you to a number of different places. The MLBTR Widget allows website owners to easily add a constantly updated box with all of MLBTR's headlines to their sites.
  • Also under the tools tab is our Transaction Tracker, which enables you to search about anything and everything to do with baseball trades, signings and extensions. 
  • Under the tools tab, you'll find a link to our Forums, a message board community of MLBTR readers with over 9,100 members.  You can discuss any baseball-related topic on the Forums, and start your own thread too.
  • MLBTR's Agency Database lets you know which agencies represent which players. It's searchable by team, agency or player, so be sure to check it out.
  • Feeds By Team is a very useful dropdown.  Hover over it to see all 30 teams.  Click on the team name to bring up a page of every post containing information about that team, with the latest on top.  These are the same pages you'll find if you go to the Rumors By Team section on the sidebar and select A's Rumors, Angels Rumors, etc.  
  • Also under the Feeds By Team dropdown, you'll find RSS and Twitter buttons.  Those links allow you to follow a single team's rumors via RSS or Twitter.  Did you know we have a separate Twitter account for each of the 30 teams?  For example you can follow @mlbtrtigers, where you would get the latest Tigers updates.
  • You can also follow Tim Dierkes and Ben Nicholson-Smith on Twitter for more MLBTR content.
  • On the far right of the Navigation bar, you'll see buttons for Twitter, Facebook, and RSS.  MLBTR has over 202,000 Twitter followers, over 60,000 Facebook fans, and over 53,000 RSS subscribers.  Sign up for these and you'll be the first to receive all of our posts.
  • Be sure to check out your favorite team's MLBTR page on Facebook so you can receive and comment on the latest rumors.
  • On to the sidebar.  It begins with a list of our Top Stories, which our writers update any time major hard news occurs.  Go here for a quick update on the most important stories.  Below that is the site's Search Box, where you can type in any player's name and get the latest on him. 
  • MLBTR Features has all kinds of goodies, including our free agent lists.  Many of the MLBTR Features are constantly updated by our writers, so be assured that our free agent lists are always fresh. 
  • Below Features you've got headlines for all the Recent Posts, in case you'd rather not scroll to see all the headlines.  Then there's a box for our Mailing List, where you can sign up to receive a daily email containing MLBTR's posts.  Use this option if you don't need the news as soon as possible.
  • Next we have Featured Posts, where you'll find original work from MLBTR writers we consider noteworthy.  For example, read about the longest current contracts by team.
  • There's also a contact form in case you need to reach MLBTR.
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Regular MLBTR Features

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 10, 2012 at 7:44am CDT

If you're a regular MLBTR reader, you'll be familiar with our chats, our Week In Review posts and Mike Axisa's Baseball Blogs Weigh In feature. Here's some more detail on when you'll see our weekly features and exactly what to expect from them:

  • MLBTR Chats - Come by every Wednesday at 2pm CDT to chat about the latest trades, signings and rumblings around the Major Leagues.
  • Baseball Blogs Weigh In - Every Friday morning, Mike Axisa directs you to some of the best writing on baseball blogs around the web. Whether it's opinion, stats or something else entirely, you can connect to the best of the blogosphere once a week on MLBTR. If you want to send Mike a post of yours, reach him at: mike@riveraveblues.com.
  • Week In Review - It's remarkable how much happens in seven days. Every Sunday night, we summarize the week's biggest stories in our Week In Review posts.
  • MLBTR Originals - We gather all our original analysis and reporting in one place every Sunday night.
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Teams With Open 40-Man Roster Spots

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 6, 2012 at 12:12pm CDT

Few teams have open 40-man roster space once rosters swell to accommodate late season reinforcements in September. In the last week alone teams have purchased the contracts of 37 players, including prospects such as Jurickson Profar and Shelby Miller, veterans like Fred Lewis and Xavier Nady and a variety of others. The result: just five teams have open 40-man roster space. 

The Royals (two open spots), Angels (two open spots), Brewers (two open spots), Twins (one open spot) and Reds (one open spot) are the only MLB teams that presently have open 40-man spots, according to MLBDepthCharts.com. These clubs are well-positioned to claim someone should an intriguing player be placed on waivers.

For context there were six waiver claims last September, eight waiver claims in 2010 (remarkably three of them involved Cesar Carrillo) and five waiver claims in 2009. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently recapped some of the best waiver claims of the past year.

Keep in mind that the 25 teams with full 40-man rosters could create roster space by moving a player to the 60-day disabled list or by releasing, outrighting or designating for assignment a rostered player.

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Non-Tenders Contributing With New Teams

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 6, 2012 at 10:20am CDT

The December non-tender deadline is an often-overlooked part of MLB’s offseason schedule, but it’s a significant day. The free agent market is flooded with a couple dozen reinforcements following the annual deadline for teams to extend offers of arbitration to their eligible players. Some of those non-tenders rebound with strong seasons, often in new environments. 

Teams non-tender players for a variety of reasons. Sometimes the clubs would rather risk losing the players to rival teams than go through the potentially expensive arbitration process. In other cases, teams don't have 40-man roster spots to spare or they view players as injury risks.

In total 29 players were non-tendered last offseason and a handful of them have added value for their current organizations. Here’s a look at some 2011 non-tenders who are contributing so far in 2012:

  • Jose Mijares, Giants (non-tendered by Twins) – The left-hander has a 2.86 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 50 1/3 total innings with the Royals and Giants. He's arbitration eligible again this offseason so he’ll be back in San Francisco — unless the Giants non-tender him again.
  • Aaron Laffey, Blue Jays (non-tendered by Royals) – Laffey has made 11 starts and six relief appearances with the Blue Jays, posting a 4.46 ERA in 78 2/3 innings with Toronto.
  • Joe Saunders, Orioles (non-tendered by Diamondbacks) – The Diamondbacks re-signed Saunders for $6MM — less than he would have obtained going through the arbitration process — and obtained 130 solid innings from him before sending him to Baltimore last month. In 141 2/3 total innings, Saunders has a 4.26 ERA with 6.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.
  • Mike Baxter, Mets (non-tendered by Mets) – The outfielder has a .285/.390/.444 batting line in 172 plate appearances with the Mets. Terry Collins has limited Baxter's exposure to left-handers this year.
  • Jeff Keppinger, Rays (non-tendered by Giants) – As I explained yesterday, Keppinger is adding lots of value with his versatility and bat. The lefty-masher is hitting .328/.375/.443 in 2012.
  • Pedro Ciriaco, Red Sox (non-tendered by Pirates) – Ciriaco has played second base, third base, shortstop and all three outfield positions for the Red Sox this year while posting a .312/.324/.422 batting line and stealing ten bases in as many attempts. An unexpectedly valuable pickup by GM Ben Cherington.
  • Ryan Theriot, Giants (non-tendered by Cardinals) – Theriot has picked up lots of playing time in San Francisco, posting a .265/.314/.313 batting line in 364 plate appearances.
  • Luke Scott, Rays (non-tendered by Orioles) – Scott has 13 home runs but he's hitting just .223/.274/.439 in Tampa Bay and missed time with a strained oblique and back spasms.
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Commenting Policy

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 5, 2012 at 7:48am CDT

MLBTR is increasing efforts to enforce our commenting policy.  The goal is to raise the level of discourse in the comments, part of which involves eliminating inappropriate language and insults.

Comments of this nature are not allowed:

  • Attacks or insults towards other commenters, the post author, journalists, teams, players, or agents
  • Inappropriate language, including swearing and related censor bypass attempts, lewdness, insults, and crude terms for body parts, bodily functions, and physical acts.  Overall, we don’t want any language that a parent would not want their kid to see.
  • Juvenile comments or extensive use of text message-type spelling
  • Writing comments in all or mostly caps
  • Spam-type links or self-promotion.  Please submit to our weekly Baseball Blogs Weigh In feature if you have a website or blog.  Currently, permissible links in the comments are limited to MLB.com, Cot’s Baseball Contracts, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball-Reference, and (of course) MLB Trade Rumors.  Comments linking to other sites will be deleted.
  • Comments about how you're sick of this topic or it's not newsworthy
  • No inappropriate avatars or images are allowed
  • Anything else we deem bad for business

If you see comments that fit the above criteria, please flag them and/or contact us.  Those who repeatedly violate the policy can be banned at any time.  Bans may be handed out liberally by our moderators, without second chances.  Remaining civil is not that difficult, though, and most commenters have no problems doing so as well as helping rein each other in.  We at MLBTR are grateful for long-time commenters and readers, though this policy applies equally regardless of tenure.  This policy is always available at the bottom of the site, and will be re-posted monthly.

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MLB Considering Changes To Roster Expansion

By Zachary Links | September 4, 2012 at 7:46pm CDT

Commissioner Bud Selig's special committee for on-field issues has talking about late-season roster expansion at length and there is increasing momentum to change the rules by next season, multiple industry sources have told Scott Miller of CBSSports.com.  The current plan would still allow teams to expand rosters in the final month of the season but would require clubs to designate which players are eligible before each game.

The most popular scenario being discussed is to expand September rosters to 30, with each club's 25-man roster on August 31 being locked in throughout September.  Locking in the rosters at the end of August would prevent teams from de-activating the starters not pitching in a particular game in order to load up with four additional minor leaguers. 

Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez and Dodgers skipper Don Mattingly have both spoken out in favor of changes to the September roster rules.  Angels manager Mike Scioscia, who is a member of Selig's committee, said that tweaking the rules would make sense "for a number of reasons".

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Five Significant Non-Trades From The 2012 Deadline

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 4, 2012 at 5:30pm CDT

Blockbuster trades generate lots of excitement, but not all rumors turn into reality. Some of the possible trade scenarios that dominated MLBTR early on this season never actually happened. Let's revisit five of those non-trades with an eye on the coming offseason:

  1. Justin Upton, Diamondbacks – The Upton rumors have subsided, but I doubt they've disappeared for good. The Diamondbacks don’t appear to have ruled out the possibility of an offseason trade involving Upton, who has a .765 OPS since the beginning of August.
  2. Cliff Lee, Phillies – The Phillies aren’t eager to trade Lee, but moving him would create some flexibility for a team with considerable commitments to its 2013 payroll. The left-hander is guaranteed $25MM per season through 2015 and his contract includes a $12.5MM buyout for a vesting option in 2016. The Dodgers, the only team with more 2013 commitments than the Phillies, are obviously not intimidated by his contract.
  3. Matt Garza, Cubs – Garza drew considerable interest leading up to the trade deadline, but he hasn't pitched since. A stress reaction in the back of his pitching elbow will sideline him for the remainder of the 2012 season and GM Jed Hoyer expects the right-hander will return in 2013, his final season before hitting free agency. If the Cubs do trade Garza this winter they figure to have less leverage than they did in July, when he appeared to be healthy.
  4. Josh Johnson, Marlins – The Marlins reportedly sought a Mark Teixeira-like package for Johnson when they listened to offers for him midseason. He'll earn $13.75MM in 2013, the final year of his contract with Miami. Most teams can handle that kind of commitment for a pitcher coming off of a strong season (3.86 ERA, 140 strikeouts and 51 walks in 165 1/3 innings) so he'll draw lots of interest if the Marlins make him available again. It'd be a surprise if they obtained a franchise-altering collection of prospects for Johnson, however.
  5. Chase Headley, Padres – Headley, the National League’s player of the month for August, has been on an extended hot streak since the non-waiver trade deadline. He has hit .331/.369/.653 with 12 home runs in the 31 games he's played, boosting his trade value to new heights. There’s no guarantee Josh Byrnes will look to trade Headley this offseason — the Padres could look to contend — but if he does there will be a long list of GMs interested in seeing what the 28-year-old could do in a more hitter-friendly environment. Headley, who's under team control through 2014, is an offseason extension candidate.

Others such as James Shields, Cole Hamels, Jason Vargas, Carlos Quentin, Alfonso Soriano, Huston Street, Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau get honorable mentions.

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September Trades

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | September 4, 2012 at 11:26am CDT

It's officially September, but the trading season isn't necessarily over. Here's what you need to know about dealmaking after August.

Trading in September is a lot like trading in August. Players who have cleared waivers can be traded to any team. However, to be eligible for postseason play a player must be on the active roster, disabled list, bereavement list, or suspended list of that club as of midnight EDT on August 31st, as Keith Law explained in this article. Because of that rule, most deals occur before September. 

Trades do happen in September, since acquisitions can help teams reach the playoffs. For example, the Phillies famously traded for Sparky Lyle in September of 1980. Lyle was a major contributor for the '80 Phillies team, even though he wasn't able to play in the postseason en route to the team's first World Series title.

More recently, players such as Kila Ka'aihue, Octavio Dotel and Willie Bloomquist have been dealt in the final full month of regular season play, as MLBTR's Mike Axisa explained three days ago. PTBNLs are often determined in September, too.

A version of this post was first published in 2009.

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