Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals
The Nationals aim to add an outfield bat and a starting pitcher this offseason, which might be enough to vault them into contention in 2012.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jayson Werth, RF: $114MM through 2017, full no-trade clause
- Ryan Zimmerman, 3B: $26MM through 2013
- Adam LaRoche, 1B: $9MM through 2012
- Stephen Strasburg, SP: $3MM through 2012
- Yunesky Maya, SP: $4MM through 2013
- Bryce Harper, OF: $3.15MM through 2015
- Sean Burnett, RP: $2.55MM through 2012
- Anthony Rendon, Matthew Purke also on Major League deals
Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)
- Tyler Clippard, RP: $1.7MM
- Jordan Zimmermann, SP: $1.8MM
- John Lannan, SP: $4.8MM
- Michael Morse, 1B: $3.7MM
- Doug Slaten, RP: $900K (non-tender candidate)
- Tom Gorzelanny, SP/RP: $2.8MM (non-tender candidate)
- Jesus Flores, C: $800K (non-tender candidate)
Free Agents
- Ivan Rodriguez (unranked C), Jonny Gomes (unranked LF), Rick Ankiel (unranked CF), Todd Coffey (unranked RP), Livan Hernandez (unranked SP), Chien-Ming Wang (unranked SP), Alex Cora (unranked IF), Laynce Nix (unranked LF)
It's about time the Nationals become a bona fide contender. The heart of the batting order can be elite with Zimmerman, Morse, and Werth. The rotation has front-end arms in Strasburg and Zimmermann, even if neither is a horse yet. The back end of the bullpen is in place too, with Drew Storen, Clippard, and Henry Rodriguez. This is the foundation of a playoff team, but GM Mike Rizzo must make several more significant acquisitions to make the Nationals a contender in 2012. Rizzo recently told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, "I think we're an outfield bat away and a starting pitcher away from really being a contender in the division."
If Strasburg and Zimmermann combine for, say, 350 regular season innings in 2012, it'd be ideal to make up that deficiency with an innings-eating ace. Obviously, those are in high demand. Free agents C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson fit the bill, while James Shields would be a high-end trade target. In the next tier, potentially available starters such as Edwin Jackson, Jason Vargas, Mark Buehrle, Jeremy Guthrie, and Brett Myers could gobble up 200 innings at a respectable ERA. I don't like the idea of trading Lannan; the Nationals need the innings he could provide as a reasonably-priced fourth starter. Catcher Jesus Flores represents more expendable trade bait, though his value is at a low point.
Assuming they believe in the second-half performance of shortstop Ian Desmond, the Nationals are in good shape in the middle infield and at catcher. Center field continues to represent the biggest up-the-middle question for the club. Rizzo could renew talks for Twins center fielder Denard Span, who is potentially signed through 2015. Otherwise, Rizzo could go for a stopgap solution like B.J. Upton or Coco Crisp and keep Matt Kemp and Jacoby Ellsbury in the back of his mind as future free agent possibilities. Using Werth in center is another option, at least in the short-term.
Agent Scott Boras will surely try to sell the Nationals on the idea of signing Prince Fielder for first base and using Morse in left field. Fielder doesn't gel with the team's primary short-term or long-term needs. They have a $9MM commitment with first baseman LaRoche next year and impending extension talks for Zimmerman. Committing $100MM to C.J. Wilson would be one thing, but Fielder could require twice as much.
One more item on the Nationals' to-do list is to name their manager for 2012. Davey Johnson is widely expected to keep the job, but the team has until the end of the month to decide.
Are the Nationals looking to go all-in for 2012, or just make marginal improvements and let Bryce Harper and other talented young players close the gap whenever they're ready? A healthy bump to a $100MM payroll would give the team $40MM+ in 2012 flexibility, enough for two starting pitchers and an outfielder, which could result in the Nationals' first playoff appearance.
Nationals Links: Lannan, Willingham, Roster
A few items about the D.C. nine….
- John Lannan could be a valuable trade chip for the Nats this winter, writes Ben Goessling of MASNsports.com. Lannan will go into the arbitration process for the second time and could possibly double his $2.75MM salary from 2011. It's not like the club couldn't afford paying Lannan a $5.5MM salary, but Goessling speculates that the Nationals could address other needs by dealing Lannan and then signing C.J. Wilson as an even better left-hander for the rotation.
- Also from Goessling, he wonders how the Nats' season would have played out if the team had kept Josh Willingham.
- MLB.com's Bill Ladson looks at Washington's roster and predicts what each player's role on the 2012 team will be. Roger Bernadina, Ross Detwiler, Jesus Flores, Chris Marrero and Drew Storen are all listed as "possible trade chips" and Ladson thinks Ivan Rodriguez and Livan Hernandez (among others) are "all but gone."
- For more MLBTR Nationals coverage, check out our Nats-specific Facebook page, RSS feed and Twitter feed.
NL East Notes: Nationals, Santana, Hale
The Phillies will attempt to advance to their fourth consecutive NLCS on Friday, when former teammates Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter face off in Philadelphia. Until then, we've got some links from the NL East to keep you entertained…
- Mark Zuckerman of NatsInsider says the Nationals could have room on their roster for Rick Ankiel next year, though it would probably be as a fourth outfielder. There's "virtually no chance" the Nationals re-sign Laynce Nix and Ankiel, according to Zuckerman. Jonny Gomes could be back, but the out-of-options Roger Bernadina isn't assured of a roster spot going forward.
- The Mets announced that Johan Santana will rest to prepare for the 2012 season instead of playing winter ball or pitching more in the instructional league. GM Sandy Alderson says he's optimistic that Santana will "maintain a Spring Training schedule with all other Mets pitchers next February and will be ready for the start of the 2012 season." The Mets owe the left-hander $24MM in 2012, $25.5MM in 2013 and at least a $5.5MM buyout in 2014.
- The Mets also announced that bench coach Ken Oberkfell, third base Coach Chip Hale, first base coach Mookie Wilson and bullpen coach Jon Debus won't be back in 2012. The A's signed Hale to be manager Bob Melvin's bench coach for the next two years.
NL East Notes: Johnson, Phillies, Nationals, Flores
Let's take a look at a few items out of the NL East..
- There's no question in the mind of MLB.com's Bill Ladson that Davey Johnson will be back as manager of the Nationals in 2012 as players and people in the front office have told said that they want Johnson back in the same role. Ladson also writes that Carlos Beltran is not a fit for the Nats and believes that he should get no more than a one-year deal due to his injury history.
- The Red Sox will consider Phillies coach Pete Mackanin as a managerial candidate, sources tell Buster Olney of ESPN.com (via Twitter).
- Jorge Arangure Jr. of ESPN The Magazine spoke with Ruben Amaro Jr. and Ed Wade about how Amaro came to join the Phillies as assistant GM. The former outfielder had zero experience between going from the field to the front office.
- Nationals catcher Jesus Flores sounds like a player who may want to continue his career elsewhere, writes Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post. Kilgore says that Flores doesn't seem bitter or angry about his lack of playing time, but he doesn't sound content.
Arbitration Eligibles: Washington Nationals
The Nationals are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Tyler Clippard, Jordan Zimmermann
- Second time: John Lannan, Michael Morse, Doug Slaten
- Third time: Tom Gorzelanny, Jesus Flores
Slaten battled a sore elbow this year, tossing only 16 1/3 innings in the Majors. At $900K he'd be cheap to retain, but he is a candidate to be non-tendered. Flores' shoulder injury knocked him down the Nationals' catching depth chart, and they could look to trade him before the December 12th non-tender deadline. We project a salary of around $800K, so some team will likely take a chance if the Nationals don't. Gorzelanny cleared waivers in August, indicating no team found him a good value at a $2.1MM salary this year. Next year it'd be around $2.8MM through arbitration. His strikeout and walk rates in 15 starts this year were solid, though his suitors may wait out the Nats to see if they tender him a contract.
Lannan ($4.8MM), Morse ($3.7MM), Zimmermann ($1.8MM), and Clippard ($1.7MM) all project to be relatively affordable and part of the 2012 Nationals. The four players project to earn a total of $12MM next year.
Including that $12MM, the Nationals have about $57MM in 2012 commitments before accounting for minimum salary players. Holding payroll steady at this year's $68MM wouldn't leave much flexibility, but the Nats are capable of going beyond that number in their offseason quest to add a starting pitcher and an outfielder.
Red Sox, Francona, Epstein Links: Saturday
The Red Sox and manager Terry Francona parted ways following Boston's September collapse yesterday, ending an eight-year run together. Soon after, we learned that White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper was pushing for Francona (after Ozzie Guillen's departure), and that the Red Sox will conduct a thorough search for their next skipper. Let's keep track of the latest regarding the Sox, Francona, and GM Theo Epstein right here throughout the day, with the latest up top…
- Epstein is interested in becoming the Cubs GM, tweets Peter Gammons, and it remains to be seen whether Red Sox owner John Henry can perhaps convince Esptein to stay in Boston as co-CEO and promote assistant GM Ben Cherington. Ben Nicholson-Smith recently interviewed Cherington as part of MLBTR's GM Candidates series, so be sure to check that out to learn more about him.
- After speaking to a few people familiar with the Nationals' thinking, Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post doesn't think the Nats will pursue Francona.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link) has spoken to many executives over the last two days who believe Epstein will be granted permission to interview for the Cubs' GM opening, and that he'll end up in Chicago. No one in the Red Sox organization has given a definitive "no" when discussing Epstein to the Cubs, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe notes.
- The White Sox continue to focus on their original short list for managerial candidates, even with Francona now available, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
- Mike Salk of 710 ESPN Seattle hears that the Red Sox have interest in Mariners manager Eric Wedge, but there is no indication that the Mariners would be willing to let him go (Twitter link).
- Bobby Valentine has support in at least "one important corner" of the Red Sox front office according to ESPN's Buster Olney (on Twitter), and he will presumably be brought in for an interview.
- In another tweet, Olney reminds us that Epstein is the x-factor because he may not be with the team next month as the Cubs GM job continues to loom.
- WEEI.com's Alex Speier looked at everything we learned from the Francona situation and the fallout of Boston's collapse in a must-read piece for Red Sox fans.
- The Boston Globe listed five potential candidates for the Sox's now vacant managerial job.
Nationals Notes: Johnson, Werth, Hernandez
Stephen Strasburg struck out ten Marlins without allowing a run over six innings of work in Washington's season finale this afternoon. Here are the latest links on the Nationals, who finish the season with an impressive 80-81 record…
- Nationals manager Davey Johnson told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that he hopes to be managing the team again in 2012 (Twitter link). "I know I'm the best candidate," he said. Jon Heyman of SI.com has been reporting for a while that Johnson can have the Nationals' job if he wants it, though GM Mike Rizzo is expected to go through with a complete search.
- Jayson Werth bristles at the idea that 2011 was a lost season for him and the Nationals, according to Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Werth feels that he's helped the team improve by working with other veterans to change its culture. Within Kilgore’s piece, Werth says he's not particularly good at dealing with failure and offers other insights into his first season with Washington.
- Livan Hernandez declined to say whether he and the Nationals have discussed a contract for next year, but he repeated his interest in re-signing with Washington, according to Bill Ladson of MLB.com.
NL East Notes: Cora, Ankiel, Igarashi, Marlins
The big off-field news of the night is that the Marlins are working to acquire manager Ozzie Guillen from the White Sox. On the field, the Phillies picked up their 100th win of the season at the expense of the Braves, whose struggles continued. Here are the latest NL East links…
- Nationals utility player Alex Cora told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that he intends to continue playing in 2012 and, potentially, beyond. Kilgore notes that teams inquired about Cora's interest in managing last offseason and adds that GM Mike Rizzo has interest in the 35-year-old as a future coach.
- Rick Ankiel, a free agent after the season, told Bill Ladson of MLB.com that he wants to return to D.C. next year since he believes the organization is headed in the right direction. The Nationals entered the day with 78 wins, the most they've had in any season since 2005.
- Ryota Igarashi wants to pitch for an MLB team in 2012 and the Mets will release him if they don't reach a deal by a certain date, according to ESPNNewYork.com's Adam Rubin (Twitter links). Rubin doubts that the 32-year-old will return to the Mets in 2012.
- The Marlins interviewed hitting coach Eduardo Perez along with third base Joe Espada and Nationals coach Bo Porter for their managerial opening today, according to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro (on Twitter). For more on the Marlins, click here.
Quick Hits: Marlins, Buehrle, Draft
On this date in 1998, 39-year-old Rickey Henderson stole his 66th base of the season, Mark McGwire hit home runs #67 and 68 and Dennis Eckersley appeared in the final game of his career, breaking Hoyt Wilhelm's all-time appearances record by pitching in his 1071st game. Will today be as eventful? It's doubtful, but there are still 15 games on the schedule. Here are today's links…
- MLBTR will be holding a free agent prediction contest shortly after the World Series ends. If your company would like to contribute a cool prize or prizes for the contest, please email mlbtrsponsors@gmail.com. There will be one MLBTR post outlining the prizes, for which each bullet will be for a sponsor and will include one link to a website related to the product contributed.
- Bo Porter, the Nationals' third base coach, interviewed for the Marlins' managerial opening today, according to Ben Goessling of MASNsports.com (Twitter link). Porter, who interviewed for the opening last year, has another shot at the job, since Jack McKeon is set to retire.
- Mark Buehrle told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune that the White Sox haven't discussed a new deal with his agent (Twitter links). The left-hander, who hits free agency after the season, confirmed that he's looking to play for a few more years.
- Though it doesn't appear that commissioner Bud Selig will get draft slotting in the upcoming collective bargaining agreement, it does seem likely that the signing deadline (currently August 15th) will be moved up in 2012, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America. Callis' sources say an earlier signing deadline is a "slam dunk."
Gomes Would Likely Accept Arbitration Offer
When the Nationals acquired outfielder Jonny Gomes from the Reds on July 26th, one consideration was the possibility of a supplemental draft pick. Gomes projected as a Type B free agent then, and still did as of a few weeks ago. However, Gomes wants to remain with the Nationals, and he told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post that if the team offers arbitration, "I'll probably take it."
In Gomes, Rick Ankiel, and Laynce Nix, the Nationals have three veteran free agent oufielders. In the opinion of GM Mike Rizzo, "all three of them have had good solid seasons." Gomes, 30, is hitting .209/.325/.389 with 14 home runs in 372 plate appearances this year for the Nationals and Reds. He's shown an improved inclination to draw walks, though his power has been lacking. As a pinch-hitter Gomes has one hit and six walks in 43 plate appearances, but as a starter he's hitting .233/.347/.436 in 329 PAs.