Nationals Eyeing Center Fielders
The Nationals are looking for potential upgrades in center field, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Though they have options in center, they are considering possible moves.
They recently traded Nyjer Morgan to the Brewers, making Rick Ankiel the everyday center fielder. Ankiel struggles to hit lefties (career .658 OPS against southpaws) and the versatile Jerry Hairston Jr. is hitting just .154/.267/.308 so far. Club officials have mixed opinions about Triple-A center fielder Roger Bernadina, according to Rosenthal.
Though the Rays will not consider trading B.J. Upton unless they fall out of contention, the Nationals would figure to have interest in acquiring him if he became available, Rosenthal writes. Upton, 26, earns $4.825MM this year and is set to hit free agency after 2012.
Rosenthal On Tigers, Reyes, Trout, White Sox
The Rockies, who are about to start a series with the defending World Champions, have baseball's best record so far this year. GM Dan O'Dowd told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that the team's resilience has contributed to its fast start. “We’re a confident, persistent club,” O’Dowd said. Troy Tulowitzki's hot streak hasn't hurt, either. Here are the rest of Rosenthal's rumors:
- One scout who has followed the Tigers this year predicts that they'll be looking for pitching help later this season. At some point minor leaguers Andy Oliver and Jacob Turner could help the Tigers, who are 12th in the AL with 77 runs allowed.
- A rival official says Mets GM Sandy Alderson will not offer Jose Reyes $100MM to stay in New York. It appears likely that Reyes will be on the trading block this summer, so MLBTR's Steve Adams recently outlined some possible destinations for him.
- Scouts are high on Angels prospect Mike Trout, praising his baserunning instincts, speed and power.
- Jason Marquis is a potential trade candidate, according to Rosenthal. The Nationals' right-hander has a 3.26 ERA in three starts so far this season.
- The White Sox don't plan to look outside of the organization for bullpen help at this point, despite their issues holding leads late in games.
Quick Hits: Guillen, Royals, Harden, Tribe
The Nationals have announced the passing of shortstop prospect Yewri Guillen due to bacterial meningitis. Guillen, 18, was signed by Washington in February and was playing at the club's Dominican Republic academy. He was honored with a moment of silence before tonight's Brewers/Nationals game. MLBTR sends our condolences to Guillen's friends and family.
Some news from around the majors…
- Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star discussed potential call-ups and other roster moves for the Royals in a chat with fans this afternoon.
- Rich Harden has suffered an injury to his teres major muscle that will likely elongate his stay on the disabled list, reports MLB.com's Eric Gilmore. Harden, who signed a one-year, $1.5MM deal with the Athletics in December, has been on the DL with an injury to his throwing shoulder.
- Are the surprising Indians for real? Probably not, says Fangraphs' Steve Slowinski, but the Tribe has so many young players on the roster that it's hard to calculate if these players will drastically fall off or if some are just developing. Slowinski also notes that Cleveland is winning despite slow starts from expected stars like Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Santana.
- The White Sox closer will be "whoever is there in the ninth inning," Ozzie Guillen tells Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune. We didn't get a chance to see a save situation tonight as Chicago lost to the Angels, but keep following @CloserNews (MLBTR's sister Twitter feed) for the latest on who will be finishing games for the Pale Hose.
Revisiting Ryan Zimmerman’s Extension
The Nationals and GM Mike Rizzo have taken their share of criticism for bidding aggressively on Jayson Werth and signing him to a free agent contract worth $126MM. Back in 2009, six weeks after taking over in Washington, Rizzo, then the interim GM, signed an equally important player to a long-term contract that's now looking like a fantastic deal for the team.
Ryan Zimmerman signed a five-year, $45MM deal two years ago this month and though his reasons for accepting the deal – guaranteed money, an extended stay with an organization he likes – are understandable, the Nationals are set to save $14MM or more in 2012-13, Zimmerman's age 27 and 28 seasons.
If he hadn't signed the exension two years ago, Zimmerman would have hit free agency after the 2011 season as a 27-year-old. He’s now on the disabled list (for just the second time in his career) with a left abdominal strain, but that wouldn’t have stopped teams from bidding on him if he had hit the open market after the season. Zimmerman and Prince Fielder would have been the best free agent position players available other than Albert Pujols.
A $20MM annual salary on a long-term deal would have been possible for the third baseman and his agents at CAA. Instead, the Nationals will pay Zimmerman $12MM in 2012 and $14MM in 2013. They have always been aggressive with Zimmerman, promoting him to the majors just 85 days and 269 minor league plate appearances after being drafted. It paid off with a sizzling cameo in 2005, a productive rookie season in 2006 and a shrewd contract extension in 2009.
The only players with more wins above replacement than Zimmerman since he became an everyday player in 2006 are perennial All-Stars and, in many cases, Hall of Fame candidates: Pujols, Chase Utley, Matt Holliday, David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera and Joe Mauer. Zimmerman, a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger winner, has a career mark of 13.1 UZR/150 and a .289/.356/.485 batting line, testaments to his well-rounded game.
He said last month that he would like to stay in Washington and is open to extending his stay in D.C. once again. This time, the Nationals might not be able to secure free agent years for south of $20MM, but that doesn't change the fact that his current deal has been a success for them so far and promises to be even better in 2012-13.
Quick Hits: Buchholz, Ishikawa, Tabata, Rivera
Rounding up Sunday's links, as Andre Ethier celebrates his 29th birthday….
- Jon Lester told WEEI.com's Rob Bradford that he didn't talk to Clay Buchholz about the pros and cons of signing a long-term extension before the right-hander inked a four-year pact today.
- Travis Ishikawa admitted he hoped another team would claim him when he was placed on waivers earlier this season, according to MLB.com's Chris Haft. However, now he says he's glad he's still with the Giants organization and is excited to stay on the West Coast, playing for Triple-A Fresno.
- Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette looks back at the trade that sent Xavier Nady to the Yankees. Kovacevic argues that even if three of the four players the Pirates received for Nady don't work out, Jose Tabata alone makes it a steal for Pittsburgh.
- Juan Rivera isn't off to a good start with his new team, as Mike Rutsey of the Toronto Sun writes. The Blue Jays are reportedly interested in trading Rivera, but his performance so far likely isn't helping draw any interest.
- The Indians will have some roster shuffling to do when injured players return, writes Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, who also addresses trade possibilites in a Tribe mailbag.
- Nationals infielder Alex Cora should make a good manager someday, says MLB.com's Marty Noble.
Heyman On Marlins, White Sox, Jenks, Glaus
There is likely an unusually short list of managers on the hot seat this year, writes Jon Heyman of SI.com. Marlins skipper Edwin Rodriguez is the lone manager who truly has uncertain job security, according to Heyman. Rodriguez received a one-year deal from the Marlins, which is rare for managers and suggests he doesn’t necessarily figure into the club’s long-term plans. Here are the rest of Heyman’s rumors.
- Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria told Heyman that "no one's on the hot seat.”
- Jim Leyland of the Tigers, Jim Riggleman of the Nationals and Ozzie Guillen of the White Sox are not necessarily on the hot seat, but they’re worth keeping an eye on, according to Heyman.
- Leyland will likely be given the chance to return to Detroit after the season when his contract expires, but that’s not a sure thing, according to Heyman.
- One White Sox person told Heyman that Guillen “isn't going anywhere.”
- Before the Yankees signed Rafael Soriano, GM Brian Cashman told Bobby Jenks that he wasn’t offering any setup man $8MM. The Yankees signed Soriano for $35MM over three years, though Cashman advised against it.
- Free agent Troy Glaus is still at home after drawing some interest this winter.
Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals
The Nationals are next in our Offseason In Review series.
Major League Signings
- Jayson Werth, RF: seven years, $126MM.
- Adam LaRoche, 1B: two years, $16MM. Includes $10MM mutual option for 2013 with a $1MM buyout.
- Jerry Hairston Jr., IF/OF: one year, $2MM.
- Rick Ankiel, CF: one year, $1.5MM.
- Todd Coffey, RP: one year, $1.35MM.
- Chien-Ming Wang, SP: one year, $1MM.
- Total spend: $147.85MM.
International Signings
- Click here to view
Notable Minor League Signings
- Matt Stairs, Jonathan Van Every, Matt Antonelli, Chad Gaudin, Brian Bixler, Michael Aubrey, Alex Cora, Cla Meredith, Laynce Nix, Alex Cintron, Ron Villone, Oliver Perez
Extensions
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RP Henry Rodriguez and OF Corey Brown from Athletics for LF Josh Willingham
- Claimed RP Elvin Ramirez from Mets and SP Brian Broderick from the Cardinals in Rule 5 draft
- Acquired SP Tom Gorzelanny from Cubs for SP Graham Hicks, P A.J. Morris, and OF Michael Burgess
- Acquired RP Adam Olbrychowski from Yankees for OF Justin Maxwell
- Claimed RP Lee Hyde off waivers from Braves
- Acquired 3B/OF Cutter Dykstra and $50K from Brewers for CF Nyjer Morgan
- Acquired SP Erik Davis and cash considerations from Padres for IF Alberto Gonzalez
Notable Losses
- Adam Dunn, Nyjer Morgan, Josh Willingham, Graham Hicks, A.J. Morris, Michael Burgess, Justin Maxwell, Alberto Gonzalez, Adam Kennedy, Willie Harris, Miguel Batista, Scott Olsen, Joel Peralta, J.D. Martin
Summary
After the 2009-10 offseason, I wrote that I'd have liked Nationals GM Mike Rizzo's offseason if we could eliminate the top two signings, the $21MM given to Jason Marquis and Ivan Rodriguez. A year later, it's much harder to excuse the $142MM spent on Werth and LaRoche.
With any seven-year free agent contract, the team is really just paying for the first three seasons and hoping the player doesn't become a complete albatross in the final four. The players can provide value at the tail end of these megadeals, but it's more of a bonus than an expectation. I can see Werth remaining an elite player through his age 34 season, and as he hasn't missed significant time since '07 I can see him remaining healthy too. Though Werth's seven-year term shocked the baseball world, I could justify the signing for a team on the cusp of contention.
My beef with the Werth signing is the Nationals' timing. They don't have the rotation to contend in 2011, and while the 2012 team should be better I'm not confident they'll be ready then either. Assuming the team's top young players will really start to come together after the '12 season, why not make your huge free agent strike then? The Nationals actually tried to make their free agent splash earlier, with big offers to Mark Teixeira and Torii Hunter in past offseasons. I don't have a problem with accelerating the timetable, for example if the Nationals signed Werth and went on to add Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. But win-now moves have to come as a package deal for a team like the Nats.
Did the Nationals "have to overpay" to get Werth and make the team more appealing for future free agents? I agree with ESPN's Keith Law that the concept is nonsense. Not because players rarely take discounts, but because they don't do so because they liked the team's crazy free agent expenditure. Were players lured to the Rockies, Astros, Giants, and Cubs because those teams went overboard for Mike Hampton, Carlos Lee, Barry Zito, and Alfonso Soriano? Many bad teams have turned things around without the luxury of a signature, excessive free agent signing.
The LaRoche contract pales in comparison to Werth's, but I still don't consider it money well spent. The Nationals went well beyond LaRoche's previous contract, despite his 2010 decline in walk rate and increase in strikeout rate. Similar to Marquis, these are not interesting players at ten-figure prices.
Rizzo's other free agent signings were acceptable purchases for a rebuilding club, with a little bit of upside sprinkled in.
I expected the Nationals to bring in a credible starter for Willingham, but Rodriguez does have the potential to develop into a premium late-inning reliever. The Morgan trade struck me as selling low, and if the center field alternatives are Ankiel and Hairston, why not give him a chance to rebuild value? I understand the Gorzelanny trade, as the lefty can chew up big league innings and has mild upside. However, Morris might have been able to help the Nationals' bullpen this year, and I'm not sure why a rebuilding team gave up on Burgess.
The Nationals would not agree that their window for contention is likely to open in 2013. I respect that, but if the plan is to win now I expect the team to be aggressive in improving its pitching staff at the trade deadline and during the 2011-12 offseason after failing to do so this winter.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Rizzo On Stats, Bench
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo joined Bill Rohland and Danny Rouhier of 106.7 The Fan last night. Here are a few highlights…
- Asked which team's success he'd like to mirror, Rizzo cited the Montreal Expos first, as they were "one of the prototypical scouting/player development organizations back in the day." He also named the Braves and Dodgers.
- Rizzo explained that he's recognized the value of statistical analysis well before Moneyball was published. He noted, "We have a whole staff of sabermetricians."
- Rizzo defended his veteran bench acquisitions, explaining that a team can't have young players at every position, and the veteran mentors won't take at-bats away from prospects.
East Notes: Simon, Red Sox, Feliciano, Mets
Let's take a look at some items from the AL and NL East..
- An Orioles source confirmed to Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun that Alfredo Simon arrived in Tampa on Saturday afternoon and will work out at the team’s minor-league complex within the next few days.
- Don't get accustomed to the Red Sox signing $100MM players, cautions Brian MacPherson of The Providence Journal.
- Orioles pitcher Alfredo Simon hasn't been totally cleared of wrongdoing in a fatal shooting, but he has been able to secure a visa which allowed him to travel to the United States. Simon's agent, Phil Issac, says that Simon will arrive in Florida this afternoon, writes Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun. Zrebiec writes that it's too early to speculate about his availability, but the veteran will begin a throwing program and start preparing for the 2011 season.
- Nationals catcher Ivan Rodriguez wants to stay with the club beyond 2011, writes Bill Ladson of MLB.com. The catcher has been brought up in trade rumors as some believe that the club could make Jesus Flores the backup after handing the keys over to Wilson Ramos behind the plate.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman said that Pedro Feliciano was "abused" by the Mets' use of him in recent years, tweets Jim Baumbach of Newsday.
- One group of bidders interested in buying a share of the Mets includes Tampa Bay Rays minority owner Randy Frankel, writes Michael O'Keeffe of the New York Daily News.
NL East Notes: Reyes, Werth, Amaro
The latest on the NL East, before the Phillies, Mets and Marlins open their respective seasons…
- Mets shortstop Jose Reyes tells Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger that he isn't worried about the 2011 season – his walk year. I recommend McCullough's piece for an in-depth look at Reyes.
- Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal says the Mets can forget dominance and aim for competence and respectability in 2011.
- Tom Verducci of SI.com praises Nationals manager Jim Riggleman for batting $126MM man Jayson Werth second.
- Paul Hagen of the Philadelphia Daily News writes that past and current Phillies GMs Ed Wade and Ruben Amaro Jr. are good friends despite their professional rivalry and different personality types.