Carlos Lee Trade Possibilities

There are all sorts of reasons to expect Carlos Lee to get traded sometime between now and the July deadline.

1.  He's an impending free agent making $8.5MM.

2.  Doug Melvin is a savvy GM, and knows when to sell high (see Dan Kolb).

3.  The Brewers have an able replacement left fielder in Corey Hart, who is projected by PECOTA to hit .272/.337/.475 in 2006.  Lee is projected by the same system to hit .282/.347/.506.  Accepting that difference in production would allow Melvin to net a top prospect or two.

4.  Lee may be overrated in some circles because of his 114 RBIs.  According to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Lee was worse offensively in 2005 than guys like Emil Brown and Raul Ibanez.

The Brewers will have plenty of trade partners for Lee.  Phil Rogers mentions both the White Sox and Cubs by name.  Here's my own analysis of the possibilities.

Red Sox - If the Sox end up trading Manny for young players, Lee could fill the power void with 35 HR.

Blue Jays - Ricciardi dealt amicably with Melvin for Lyle Overbay, and the Jays don't have much going on in LF.  If they're hovering near contention in July it makes a ton of sense.

White Sox - I don't see it.  They didn't part on the best of terms, and the Sox have good outfield depth.  I'm for any move that relegates Podsednik to the bench, but I don't think reacquiring Lee would be the first choice.

Angels - It would involve shuffling outfielders around, but Lee would be a more reasonable addition than Manny.  Maybe the Halos would consider dealing Dallas McPherson for him.

Braves - The Braves have definitely dealt for big-name sluggers in the past as opposed to acquiring them via free agency.  J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Fred McGriff come to mind.  They have the stacked minor league system to get it done.

Cubs - Both clubs might be contending in the Central division, so it makes a trade less likely.  Back in January, though, Sun-Times writer Greg Couch proposed the Cubs try to entice the Brewers with both Felix Pie and Rich Hill.

Cardinals - They have the need, but the same division thing would have to prevent a trade.

My ranking of the most likely suitors:  Blue Jays, Braves, Angels, Cubs.  I'd like to see your thoughts in the comments.

Comments

[JMan]

The cubs would probably love to add Lee to the roster. Unless Murton tanks, I doubt it happens however.
One team not mentioned are the Astros. If Tavarez goes down hill or can net them a quality starter I could HOU making a run at Lee with the idea of putting Wilson back in CF.

[RumorMonger]

Could be, though I've heard Wilson isn't really in the shape these days to play a decent CF.

[Matty]

Woudln't the mets have the prospects to make a deal for Lee? Banninster, Keppinger, Diaz, Nady, any of these guys? Lee Would add the stability to right field and with Floyd and Lee at the corners that would be two RBI machines

[JMan]

Another team under the radar could be the Marlins. I know they wanted to pare down payroll to the minimum but they have 1 or 2 OF at most right now. But it'll be a lot easier to have an idea as to where Lee goes once ST starts and everyone can get a better idea of which team has OF needs.

[Chad]

All your team projections sound good. But i can not believe you did not include the Dodgers. We will need another big bat in our lineup after Kent leaves, and our OF depth is anything but pretty. And we surely have the farm system to get something done.

[Mark H]

I'd love to see Lee added to the middle of the Cubs lineup. That would add a whole new dimension to the Cubs lineup. However, I'm pretty impressed with Murton, and I'd like to wait and see how he does this season. I think Matt's got loads of potential as a hitter. Also, as you mentioned in the post, I doubt that the Brewers would trade him within the division, unless the Cubs overwhelmed them with a questionably lopsided offer. He does make a lot of sense with the Blue Jays, and we'll just have to see where both teams are at the trade deadline. Good topic... definitely food for thought.

[RumorMonger]

Dodgers would be a good one. I left them off because they have Cruz, Lofton, Drew, and some backups. But they're probably in the hunt as you said.

[Teetz]

Talking about picking up Lee and whatnot....amazing that the Cubs just didn't keep Alou after the 2004 season. A horrible couple of years for Hendry compared to what he did in his first couple years as GM.

[RumorMonger]

Alou was pretty awesome last year but only managed 430 ABs. So we would've had 200 or so ABs of crap in there perhaps. Still better than what we had though.

[Papa Smurf]

How about the Rangers?

[RumorMonger]

Guess it depends on whether Mench is gonna stick around, unless they want to keep him and move him to RF.

[Tommy]

I'd love to see him in the braves lineup but I think they'd have make sure they could unload Langerhans or Johnson in a trade even if it weren't that one. I assume it would also mean some pitching going to the brewers. I would want to unload Thomson but it would surely take Davies, James, or Lerew

[Jinx]

I was thinking about the Orioles. They have Jeff Conine slated as their LF (at least I think), Lee would provide some protection for Tejada.

They have some young arms that they could deal for the right price.

[Randy]

Phil Rodgers is way off - he won't end up in Chicago.

No way the Sox take him back and if the Cubs were willing to give up Pie and Hill for him - I'm sure that the Brewers would take it. I say they don't offer that.

The cubs are defensively challenged as it is and I don't think they'll make this move.

He'll end up someplace else.

[Ryan]

I think there's no chance of Lee going back to the South Side. He parted, as seems to be customary, on pretty bad terms (not as bad as Fisk, Thomas, or Ordonez, but still pretty bad terms), and was supposedly quoted as saying he'd like to go to the Cubs to stick it to the Sox.

While I would like his bat in the Cubs line-up, I don't want him at the expense of Matt Murton. Since Jones has a 3-year deal, that means that I don't expect the Cubs to get him.

I think he'd be best-suited for a team like the Angels who have a need for a power-hitting righty who could DH and/or start in left field. Lee isn't making an insanely high amount, either, so the Angels wouldn't have to expand payroll. Finally, the Angels have a stockload of young, inexpensive talent--exactly what Melvin wants. I think McPhereson for Lee straight-up would be a bit lop-sided in favor of the Brewers, as McPhereson has tons of potential and even more power. If the Angels were to then throw in a lower-level prospect for a mid-level prospect from the Brewers, it might be a more even trade. Either way, it'd make sense and help both teams.

[RumorMonger]

I kind of remembered Lee saying that about going to the Cubs, but couldn't track down the quote on the Net. Anyone?

[Ryan]

I also wonder what teams Lee would want to go to via trade. Since he'll be a free agent, I'd assume that any team dealing good prospects for him would want a window to negotiate an extension. Unless Lee tanks or gets injured, he'll have quite a few suitors this off-season...Just a thought...

[Kyle]

I think McPhereson for Lee straight-up would be a bit lop-sided in favor of the Brewers, as McPhereson has tons of potential and even more power. If the Angels were to then throw in a lower-level prospect for a mid-level prospect from the Brewers, it might be a more even trade. Either way, it'd make sense and help both teams.

Lee is a proven hitter and McPherson hasnt shown anything for the Halo's and will probably end up as a DH with Wood moving over to third. I would think the Angles would have to throw in a mid level prospect in addition to McPherson to get it done

[Randy]

I talked to Carlos Lee at Grandstand ,after he was traded ,and he doesn't have bad feelings about the Sox - it's just not a good fit anymore.

He tore up cubs pitching real good so I'm sure they would love him but the Brewers will probably trade him to the AL.

Although, he is not the hitter that Manny is, I think it would make a lot more sense for the Angels to trade for him and not give up so much.

[RumorMonger]

Pretty cool, Randy.

[Randy]

He's a cool guy and he loves the guys at Grandstand. I know most cub fans don't go there but you can often see a Sox player or announcer there - and the best part is they'll talk to you.

I've talked to Bill Melton, Ed Farmer, Dave Wills, Pods, A.J and others.

[Paul]

This is a pipedream, but My twins could use a Big Bat

[D (Boston)]

Melvin will want pitching. The Brewers were .500 last year. Subtract Lee, and they are obviously worse but still heading in the right direction. Pitching is the proper requirement to get past that and make a push for the playoff. Granted the deal is a rental but at least a solid major league ready pitching prospect should be involved.

[D (Boston)]

If Epstein could package Bronson Arroyo and Jeremry Gonzalez then the Sox have a great chance at landing Carlos Lee.

[astrosfan]

"I'm for any move that relegates Podsednik to the bench"

Why?

Is there some actual reason for this statement, or do you:

a) hate the success of the White Sox and/or their winning smartball philosophy?

or b) are stuck in some fantasy baseball world where non-power hitting LF have no value?

[RumorMonger]

Looks like you came out on the offensive, but yeah, Pods' power deficiency is one of his flaws.

"But that's not his game! He's an awesome leadoff hitter than runs real fast, distracts pitchers, and won 83 one-run games for the Sox!"

Never mind his crappy success rate on the basepaths and an OBP that was nothing special.

What does he do well besides field?

[D (Boston)]

- astrosfan
The reason for:
"I'm for any move that relegates Podsednik to the bench"
Is due to the fact that the number of times Podsednik attempts steals versus the number of times he is successful is not good. Overall Podsednik costs the White sox runs by being caught! In addition he is not that good of a leadoff hitter since he takes runs away by being caught. Its fortunate for Podsednik that he is so overrated. & remember this is coming from a die-hard Boston fan that knows Jeter was screwed over by his selection in the last all star game.

[Kyle]

Pods is awesome in fantasy baseball he won me steals last year but as a left fielder he is just mediochre. He hits for NO power. His success rate for stealing bases is only 72%. He is a mediocher left fielder defensive. I like the guy and watching him steal is awesome but he isnt a great left fielder

[Randy]

I've been watching the White Sox for 35 years and last year I watched almost every single game.

Trust me, the White Sox won many baseball games because they had Pods leading off.

He was injured for the last 2 months of the season and that was why he was caught stealing so much.

The Sox want him to do the same thing for them this year because they know how valuable he is to this team.

Those that don't realize this must not watch the games or just care about stats.

To them, I just have this to say : 2005 WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS.

[RumorMonger]

Well, since stats are out the window, I'm going to say that the Sox won the WS entirely because of Carl Everett. Now that he's gone, they have no chance.

[Hassan Khan]

I Think carlos lee should go to angels and put erstad back at first and sign bengie. Trade Gurrerro,and cash for wells and manny. Sign on Weaver and trade the

[Kyle]

Personally I am with Rumor I dont see the sox competing very well this year. Everyone will know how to play against them and I expect a lot of peoples numbers to fall a bit. But who knows if Thome comes out and hits 40 hr they could be back in the playoffs I just dont see it I am picking the Twins

[D (Boston)]

Enjoy it Randy,
You guys are just a one-hit wonder. Have fun when U.S. Cellular is half-empty and you're sox have fallen back to reality.

[D (Boston)]

No Kyle
...The Tribe is winning the AL Central in 2006. sox fans enjoy 2nd place lol

[Randy]

Ofcourse, you will all be wrong AGAIN this year.

Since, the White Sox have not had a losing season since 1999 and they are better this year than last year's 99 win team - oh yeah and they won 16 of their last 17 games including spanking the Indians( when they had to win at the Jake) ,swept the no- pitching Red Sox and went 11-1 thru the playoffs...I'm quite certain that they will win the division.

Then, the playoffs....well which NL team will they sweep this year ?

Kyle, you're right. It will be hard for the Sox to compete, what with all that overload of great pitching getting in the way.

[D (Boston)]

White sox fans:
Abunch of jaded one-time winners.
Dispicable Baseball fans.
& natural sore losers.

[Kyle]

White sox fans:
Abunch of jaded one-time winners.
Dispicable Baseball fans.
& natural sore losers.

COME ON what would you describe Red Sox fans as other than jaded one-time winners at least the white sox fans are jaded about a team that one last year instead of 2 yrs ago

[Kyle]

Kyle, you're right. It will be hard for the Sox to compete, what with all that overload of great pitching getting in the way.

If the pitchers can repeat what they did last year they will be good I just dont know I feel like a lot of them pitched way better than they are.

Buehrle was .5 runs below his average ERA

Garcia pitched just about his average ERA

Contreras was .5 runs below his average ERA

Javier Vasquez era was 4.4 in the NL that will go up as he comes back to the AL

and Garland was almost a full run below his average ERA.

You could say all these pitchers are just improving under Cooper and will keep it up but I see at least two of them resorting back to there averages. Also your closer had the advantage last year of no one knowing him. This year he will be a lot more scouted and hitters may figure him out. I just dont trust when a player has a year a lot better than there career averages more often than not this season is an anomoly and not a trend

[REM]

Anyone that says Pods wasnt a vital source of the white sox success is a complete and utter idiot. And since when does lead off hitters NEED power. Pods only played in LF bc of Rowand one of the best defensive CF in the league. Damn Fools who disagree

[Braves "fan"]

I would hate to see Carlos Lee coming to Atlanta at the expense of any of our promising, young pitching prospects. I am more than fine with Langerhans and Diaz platooning in LF at the moment. Besides, if we really wanted to pay an aging LF $8M or so to add some pop to our lineup, we would have gone out and signed Brian Giles when he was still available. We'd also prefer a left-handed power bat to balance our lineup. Lee to Atlanta is just not happening.

[RumorMonger]

And what does a leadoff hitter need, REM? Very good on-base skills? High stolen base success rate? Hot wife? Tell me.

[RumorMonger]

OK, Braves fan. I see your point. But Lee is about five years younger than Giles.

[Randy]

Yes. Buehrle, Garcia, Vazquez, Contreras, Garland and McCarthy would be coming out of nowhere if they are good again this year - what a shock that would be to everyone in baseball.

Ofcourse, there no guarantees for players on ANY team as to how they will perform any year.

Are these players locks to perform their best in 2006 : Schilling?Beckett?Clement?Byrd?Sabathia?Westbrook?Foulke?Wickman?Radke?Silva?Lohse?

You'd rather bet on those guys ? Ok.

[Vince]

Randy -
"Trust me, the White Sox won many baseball games because they had Pods leading off"

Randy, trust me, the White Sox won many baseball games because they had the best pitching staff in baseball last year.

All those one run games they won last year because of Posednik would have been 2 or 3 run games they won if the Sox had a better left fielder.

[Diego]

It's no secret that Ozzie Guillen is an aggressive manager, and Pods' CS rate reflects the fact that he got the green light more than he should've. If, say, Felipe Alou was in charge, Pods would be at about 19/3 in steals.

I don't believe this makes him a bench player. The guy hit .290, after all. If he could cut down on his flyball outs, he'd be at .330 or so, given the pitches he sees.

[the real D from Boston]

someone stole my name. disregard anything after the pitching comment.

[Kyle]

Randy I completely realize that baseball is a crapshoot and that it is very hard to predict. But having said that I tend to expect people to preform around there averages. Occasionally people have breakout years. Lots of times this results in bad contracts. Trust me as a Yankees fan I know about pitchers returning back to there average performance. That is why I am weary of the white sox. Other than Garcia I feel like the pitching staff basically all had career years and they just lined up. The white sox will be near the top of the AL central this year I would just rather go with the Twins.

[iamshack]

Well, as for Podsednik, let's not forget that he was injured for much of the second half last year. He was playing with a hernia. If you look at his sb % for his career, he has been much better in the past, and actually had a very nice 83% success rate, well above the 75% that seems to be the minimum level of success to justify stealing. In 2004, he succeeded at an 84% clip, and in 03', at an 81% rate.
His injury clearly added to him getting caught more. He has now had offseason surgery, and I expect him to return to his career percentages.

[RumorMonger]

Iamshack, that is a pretty good point that even a Pods-hater like myself cannot ignore. He should probably add value with steals in '06.

[REM]

Speed. Aggressive Base Running. Strikes Fear into pitchers that keeps em off balance. Contact hitter. Solid OBP.

two questions im sure you can answer rumor, What was pods stolen base success rate pre-injury and what is the league OBP average for a starter?

[iamshack]

Sorry, that last post is somewhat unclear, the 83% stat I was referring to was pre-allstar break, when he was 44 for 53 in stolen bases. The injury is believed to have occurred shortly thereafter, when he was only 15 for 29. Now that is just piss-poor terrible, well-below anything he has done in his career until that point.
I expect him to return to rates over 80% in 06', and could very well come close to 70 sb's again as he did in 04', and was on easily on pace to destroy until the injury.

[iamshack]

On the contrary, Juan Pierre has a 74% career success rate stealing (267 of 363), but was successful at a 77% clip last year.
Interestingly, Juan Pierre has a career OBS of .730- the EXACT same as Scott Podsednik, whose career success rate of 79% stealing betters Pierre's 74%.
IMO, they are both below average defenders.

[RumorMonger]

Yeah I don't wanna make it a Cubs/Sox thing - I am not a fan of Pierre at all.

[iamshack]

Ack! That's OPS, not OBS.

[iamshack]

Well, I happen to think they are both under rated. I don't buy the stealing success rate theory, as it completely disregards all the other unquantifiable/intangible effects that base stealers have on pitching, defensive shifts, etc.
I think they are both very valuable weapons to have at the top of the order. Certainly, Scott needs to take more walks and improve his OBP though as a leadoff hitter.

[Randy]

As far as Pods goes, I'm not arguing that he is the best left fielder in the game.

Ideally, he would be able to play CF well but he can't.

However, don't you think that KW and Ozzie could easily replace him if they wanted to ?

They don't want to. That's the point. The White Sox know how much he helped this team, even if you don't, and that's why they want him back this year. Obviously, they know what it takes to win.

The Sox will score MORE RUNS this year - just watch and that will make it even easier on the pitching staff.

[CubsRAWK!!!]

"Ack! That's OPS, not OBS."

Nope, that's definitely "OBS" you're talking about there: Overflowing Bull Shit. Use your nerdy little stats all you want, but there's no way you'll convince me or any other REAL baseball fans out there of the "fact" that Pods is somehow better than Pierre. If he was, the Cubs would have gotten him when he was available in the trade market before last year, instead of waiting for Pierre to be placed on the block this year. Pierre is an excellent defender because he is blazing fast. He will spark the team's O by being the league's best leadoff man. If he wasn't that already, Dusty will get it out of him. Pods is better than Pierre??? Stop being ridiculous!

[the real D from Boston]

I have yet to see much evidence that Podsednik contributed to that many White Sox wins. He didn't even break 100 runs, and for a "on-base, speed" guy, that's not saying much. His Total Bases aren't very high. And if you want to get into Win Shares, then he didnt contribute much there either. What exactly did he do?

[the real D from Boston]

"Nope, that's definitely "OBS" you're talking about there: Overflowing Bull Shit. Use your nerdy little stats all you want, but there's no way you'll convince me or any other REAL baseball fans out there of the "fact" that Pods is somehow better than Pierre."

Unless you watched both players for almost the whole season, what else are you going on beside stats? Just curious.

[wtf!?]

This is so ridiculous. They are both mediocre players no one should care about because their performance does not dictate their team's win-loss record. I could just say, mike stanton is better than justin lehr, so the nats will dominate the brewers, in the nhl. is it nhl? i dont know. because i dont know what im talking about. and neither do you. go play hockey or something. or futebol. or put your head in a toilet.

[Kyle]

Nope, that's definitely "OBS" you're talking about there: Overflowing Bull Shit. Use your nerdy little stats all you want, but there's no way you'll convince me or any other REAL baseball fans out there of the "fact" that Pods is somehow better than Pierre. If he was, the Cubs would have gotten him when he was available in the trade market before last year, instead of waiting for Pierre to be placed on the block this year. Pierre is an excellent defender because he is blazing fast. He will spark the team's O by being the league's best leadoff man. If he wasn't that already, Dusty will get it out of him. Pods is better than Pierre??? Stop being ridiculous!

First off they are both very dangerous. Podsednik could very well be better than pierre. The only reason RIGHT now that Pierre is better is that he is in center. The reason that the Cubs dont have podsednik is that they didnt have the great player to trade for him (Lee). I think stolen bases are a very huge part of the game and I hate that 75% crap. A steal is valuable even if it doesnt happen. The pitcher, first baseman, second baseman, catcher, and shortstop, now all have something other then the hitter up on there mind because of the threat. If podsednik was playing center I would definately think its great. I just think you need more power and productivity out of your corner outfielder

[Joe]

How about the white sox trade dye and contreas for lee and a couple prospects?

[Kyle]

That could make sense Joe the Brewers do need some pitching although I think they are looking for more younger pitchers. It is a fair trade but the problem is neither team is getting what they really want (white sox starting pitching brewers young pitching)

[Randy]

I was just wondering, stat heads, who really won the 2005 World Series ?

And, who REALLY made the AL All-Star team ?

Some of us actually live in reality.

[iamshack]

Well, I wasn't aware that simle math was "nerdy." I am somewhat confused on how Pierre is a great fielder because of his "blazing speed," but that logic would not also follow for Podsednik. And claiming that Pierre must be better than Podsednik, because if he weren't, the Cubs would have acquired him before the WS did and instead of Pierre is really brilliant.
As for Win Shares, Podsednik has obviously suffered recently because of a low batting average in 04', in which he had 15 win shares, and in 05', because his injury caused his sb % to be so low. In 2003, in which he was rookie of the year in the NL, Podsednik ranked 11th amongst all OF's in the NL. Assuming he is healthy in 06', it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities for him to reach similar numbers again.

[the real D from Boston]

Oh, I'm not saying the White Sox aren't a worthy team but Scott Podsednik isnt the reason the won. Pitching and the HRs won them the title.

[the real D from Boston]

iamshack, true on the win shares. i'm just using it as a way to say Pods did not contribute as much to the White Sox wins as people are assuming here.

[RumorMonger]

Who won the 2004 World Series? A team reliant on stats. BOOYAH

[iamshack]

Real D:
I am not certain this is anything more than a coincidence, but I think it is useful to point out the White Sox seemed to succeed at the highest rates when Podsednik was at his healthiest. If you look at their record in the first half, and then again towards the very end of the season when he seemed to be finally approaching some level of health, the WS were at their best. Once again, it was probably a coincidence, but there did seem to be some kind of correspondence from a cursory look.
I saw nearly all 174 WS games last season, and I am the first to admit that Podsednik didn't singlehandedly cause the team to be so successful or win thr World Series. Rather, it was pitching defense, luck, etc.

[the real D from Boston]

- iamshack

Thank you, but once again you've provided little to no real insight on this topic!

[iamshack]

real D,
I am not sure what insight is required. My only intention was to point out that Podsednik is a much better base stealer than last year's statistics show because he was injured.
I also pointed out that Podsednik has in the past been considered a very important player (rather than mediocre, as you claim) if one measures his performance by win shares. I expect him, if he is in full health, to once again approach his success in 03'.
I am not sure what else can be said.
As for Coco Crisp, by comparison, has a career OPS of only 24 points higher, but has a much lower career stolen base % (65). Is he THAT much better than Pods?

[the real D from Boston]

once again, not me above. this is getting ridiculous. i'll come back some day with a new name. until then, no more posts are mine.

[Vince]

Funny that Baseball Think Factory posted this article. Obviously there is going to be debate about an article like this. And I know all the White Sox fans will just laugh and say how stupid the article is. But it quantifies just how much a base-stealers "intangibles" affect the defense. It even mentions Posednik.

It is actually a very good article and ironic it was just posted. Someone over there must have foreseen this thread getting started.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/base-stealer-intangibles-part-2/

[Vince]

And to give credit to who should get it. Baseballthinkgfactory.com posted it, but it was written for the Hardball Times.

[Sir Jinx A-lot]

ERIK BEDARD for CARLOS LEE straight up.

[Sir Jinx A-lot]

Damn, I don't know what city has more annoying fans, Boston, New York, or Chicago. Listening to all these morons makes me want to root for the Royals.

[iamshack]

Vince,
I just read that not a half-hour ago. I thought it was sort of ironic as well.
I have a few problems with the article though:
1) I don't agree with the fact that the article says that hitters who bat after a base-stealer are generally better hitters than all hitters on average, but then doesn't also recognize that many of these hitters are also asked to try and hit the ball to right field (or similarly adjust their hitting strategy because of the base runner).I really appreciate the effort by the author of the article, but I think it is still coming up quite short of being able to quantify some very unquantifiable situations. And while this article is certainly interesting, it has NOTHING to do with giving a base stealer credit for that which he does quite often- stealing a base without the benefit of the batter even putting a ball in play yet.

[Vince]

As I said in my post, articles like these can have endless debates. I don't think it is an end-all be-all article. I do think it does a pretty good job showing the value, or lack there of intangibles. Like I said, we can debate forever.

The problem I have, especially in this case with White Sox fans, is their arguement is that Posednik's "intangibles" on the bases are so valuable, that other fans just don't understand. So when an unbiased onlooker tries to quantify these, Sox fans say this article is completely wrong and has no validity and we should accept that they can in fact quantify Posednik's value on the bases (which is very high according to them), but offer no real evidence to back their claims, except they know and nobody else does, and we should just believe them.

[Tyler Jackson]

i think the cardinals might want him and have enough young talent that they could package a nice deal. for someone the brew crew knows they cant resign

[Tim Dierkes]

Right Vince. Of course there are things that cannot be quantified, but you can't use them for the basis of a debate. Stats paint a picture using facts.

[iamshack]

I don't believe that Podsednik has any "special intangibles" that other very good baserunners have. I just firmly believe in the value of someone who can steal such a large quantity of bases and at such a good percentage. I also believe there are intangibles which come from a dangerous baserunner, but right, things are that aren't quantifiable can be argued from multiple standpoints and go on forever. I don't fault those for thinking that players like Pierre and Podsednik aren't as valuable as they may be made out to be; I am only happy that the team I cheer for believes they are.

[Ryan]

RE: Podsednik: For everyone who wants to discredit his second half stolen base percentage, I'm going to argue that we should discredit his .290 batting average. After all, he hit .244 in '04...Sarcasm aside, anyone can isolate a player's numbers over a small period of time to prove their point, whether it be pro or con. While Podsednik's stolen base success rate dropped in the second half last year because of injuries, his average increased due to being in a new league. While, assuming he's fully-recovered, he'll most likely have a better rate of stealing bases, he'll also hit for a lower average. And no, I'm not basing this just off of his '04 average, but off of the fact that he was 6-year minor leaguer for a reason.

As for him being a bench player, I wouldn't go that far, but I definitely agree with Rumor in that Podsednik is not, and should not be considered, one of the premiere lead-off hitters in the AL. Last time I checked, a lead-off hitter's job is to take a lot of pitches, get on base, and try to advance, either by stealing or by taking advantage of a sacrifice or hit-and-run situation. The lead-off hitter needs to be a run-scorer, not a run-producer, and is basically a catalyst in the line-up. Not only is Podsednik NOT the best at a combination of these, but he is also not really the best at any of these. Further, if he had a hernia and a leg injury, which has been well-documented, it is selfish and stupid of him to try to steal all those bases in the second half when he knew that he wasn't able to get a good enough jump. He cost his team runs in an attempt to boost his own numbers.

In all fairness, the Sox won the World Series this past season, and he was a very big part of it. Having said that, he was a part of the formula (and for the love of God, will people please stop acting as though Ozzie Guillen invented or refined fundamental baseball?! All he did was borrow the same philosophy that worked in '03 in Florida, and the same philosophy that used to be used by almost every team in baseball since the game's inception. It's not "Ozzie-ball;" it's been around for a very, very long time) and while an important part of the team, he was not the best lead-off man in the AL, let alone in baseball.

[Ryan]

Kyle: No, Dallas McPherson has not YET produced enough at the major league level, but if healthy, history strongly indicates that he will. The man is a major power threat, and in a full season is capable of 40+ bombs. He's also a better defender than Lee (albeit at a different position, and granted that Lee isn't going to win a Gold Glove any time soon) and makes a helluva lot less money than Lee. All things considered, I would rather have McPherson, and unless Lee indicates to Melvin that he wants to stay a Brewer, Melvin would probably prefer DM, too. For those reasons, I think it would be a lop-sided deal in favor of Milwaukee.

[junbun]

im not a white sox fan, or a scott podsednik fan.. but ive seen a lot of "he's not good at this and that" without much of backing so i took the liberty to compare podsednik to the "top" leadoff players in the game (i say top because im just picking a couple other guys who are widely thought of as good leadoff guys) averaging out their last 2 years worth of performance. (remember, this is just the AVG of their two years not the two simply combined)

Scott Podsednik-
.263/.324/.352 64/82SB (78%) 82R 90SO 53BB 3.93 #P/PA

Johnny Damon-
.309/.375/.457 19/24SB (79%) 120R 70SO 65BB 3.92 #P/PA

Rafael Furcal-
.281/.348/.422 38/46SB (82%) 102R 75SO 60BB 3.89 #P/PA

Juan Pierre-
.301/.343/.385 51/72SB (71%) 98R 40SO 43BB 3.6 #P/PA

podsednik is scary worse in 3 "vital" leadoff stats: OBP, SO, R.

[NeB]

Carlos Lee and Dan Kolb(Were hoping he can turn it around) to Boston
Bronson Arroyo Trot Nixon and David Murrfy to the Brewers

[BoSox04]

That's a good trade because the brewers get a reliable cheap young pitcher,a decent prospect and a replacement for lee
While the Red Sox get some offence that they lost and hopefully a bulpen guy that can return to form

[Diego]

Yuck. Why would anyone trade for Dan Kolb? Didn't everyone release him three times over already?

And folks, the argument is not whether or not Scott Podsednik is the best LF/leadoff hitter in baseball. It's against the assertion that he's a "bench player." He's not.

By the way: When Rickey Henderson stole 130+ bases that one year, his stealing percentage was just about 75%.

[RumorMonger]

...so maybe those 130 steals weren't all they're cracked up to be. I've seen a lot of defense of Pods' intangibles but not a good statistical argument of how he's better than a league average LF. Or even close to it.

[Kyle]

The thing with Podsednik is he is good in a system. If he were on the Yankees lets say he would be any good because that isnt the game they play. But on the white sox he fits very well. He steals lots of bases and that is one of the things Guillen values. He is a scrappy and he is good at what he does. On most teams I would say Pods is a pinch runner type.

[DrBox]

Isn't Lee a FA next year? He's nothing close to an elite player? Who's going to feed Mil a boatload of prospects for him?

Pods is important TO THE SOX because he gets on base at a .350 clip, without a bunch of intentional walks. He's a lead-off hitter. The Sox have no one else who could hit lead-off. Homers are usually solo jobs at that position, so they don't mean as much.

Diego,

I would hope you are not trying to compare Posednik to Ricky Henderson. Hopefully you were just making a point about his sucess rate of SB.

Because if you want to compare them, here are their career averages

OBP SLG OPS
Henderson .401 .419 .820
Posednik .345 .385 .730

So Sox fans. I think it is easy to see who is a GREAT leadoff hitter, and who is league-avg at best

Kyle- Just because Ozzie values something, doesn't mean its correct. He actually cost his team runs because of his "small-ball". Now I am an Ozzie fan, but what he says and does isn't gold, just because that's what he says. The reason Posednik doesn't fit on the Yankees is simple:

They would be down-grading if they had him in their lineup

[Kyle]

I personally dont agree with Ozzie's system but what I was trying to state is that Podsednik has value to the white sox because of that system. This is the system ozzie has chosen right or wrong and in that system Podsednik fits pretty well. The white sox didnt have many people with high OBP or high batting averages. Ozzie stressed speed and defense and Podsednik can do both those. I also believe that his low stolen base % is a product of 1. His injury and 2. Ozzie giving him the green light too often

And for all you who mentioned Ricky Henderson's SB% I dont know where you got your stats because Henderson only had 2 years with below a 75% success rate. When he was 22 and went 56/78 and when he was 37 and went 37/52 his career success rate is a very good 81%

[Sir Jinx A-lot]

SHUT THE HELL UP, DAMN ALREADY, WE GET IT. ENOUGH ABOUT PODSEDNIK

[Kyle]

OK to get off the Podsednik talk I would offer Manny to the Angels for Cabrera, McPherson, and Kotchman. Then I would turn around and offer Youkilis, DelCarmen and David Murphy for Lee and a minor league pitcher

Rickey Henders stole 130 bases, and was caught 42 times in 1982, for a 75.6% success rate.

[Sir Jinx A-lot]

Erik Bedard for Carlos Lee.

[Ryan]

Diego: In all fairness, though, you need to compare his ability as a fielder and lead-off hitter to other LF's and LOH's in determining whether he is an everyday player or a bench player...

[junbun]

Ryan:

i took care of the LOH... how about some avg LF comparisons?

[DrBox]

Yes Diego, he's not a great lead-off hitter. He's just better than any thing the defending Worlds Champs have and have had in ages. And I wouldn't be so sure he's merely average -there are a lot of bad ones out there.

[RumorMonger]

average AL LF in 2005:

.278/.333/.437, .770 OPS, 70.1 SB %

Pods in 2005:

.290/.351/.349, .700 OPS, 72.0 SB %