Wily Mo Traded For Arroyo

It's official:  the Red Sox have sent Bronson Arroyo to the Reds for Wily Mo Pena.  This is an intriguing trade.

The Reds needed a solid affordable starter like Arroyo.  It's unclear yet which Reds starter will be pushed out of the rotation.  Eric Milton is terrible but well paid.  Paul Wilson will probably begin the year on the DL, so the club won't have to sort things out until he returns.

So far in his career, Arroyo has done an above average job keeping the ball in the park with a 0.95 HR/9 in 588 innings.  This will come in handy in Great American Ballpark. Still, as U.S.S. Mariner points out, he's a flyball pitcher entering a home run ballpark with Ken Griffey Jr. as his centerfielder.  Not a great mix. 

You'd have to imagine Arroyo is less than amused after signing a three-year, $11.25MM deal out of loyalty for the Red Sox.  This is one case where a player should've listened to his agents.

Fenway Park provides a 13% HR boost for righties like Pena.  Of course, Great American had a similar effect on him.  Here's a look at some projections for Pena.  I know he's touted as a 40 HR candidate right now, but something in the low 30s would be more reasonable even if he gets 550 ABs.  For fantasy geeks, Pena could certainly top 100 RBIs for the first time if he gets to hit in the heart of the order and isn't platooned.

Comments

[Governor Arnold]

Sounds like Pena will just platoon unless the Red Sox make another move. Anything this else being discussed Rumormonger?

[Miek Diviero]

I wonder if this is a precursor to a Manny for Soriano move?

So long Joe Brochard, you will be missed by this Sox fan.

[Ed]

YES! From a Reds fan.

[Mike]

Why are u so happy as a Red fan? Arroyo has looked awful lately and you guys traded Casey so u didn't have to trade one of your young stud OF's. And then you guys go and do it anyway? I dont understand this for the Sox either unless they think Nixon will go down, or trade him. I guess they can try and play Ortiz at 1B maybe and have Willy Mo Dh.

[Ed]

Pena is a K machine and a butcher in the OF. He is one-dimensional (obvious power). Yes, Arroyo had a 4.52 era last year, but it was 4.02 in 2004 and is playoff tested. The spring emergence of Encarnacion had a lot to do with this trade I think. With Dunn, Griffey, Lopez, Kearns and Encarncaion they have plenty of power. Yesterday's beautiful performances by Williams and Gosling was the nail in the coffin.

[Braveswin]

I guess this deal ends the Griffey for Soriano rumblings.

[JMan]

Via a friend listening, WEEI is discussing an expanded deal where Pena would go to the Nats for soriano and then Soriano would be traded to the Mets for Milledge. The ultimate grain of salt is being taken of course.

[RMR]

Shoot. Me. Now.

Just because Arroyo was better than the crap in our rotation, doesn't mean he's worth Pena. The Reds are also stating Dunn is moving back to LF and Scott Hatteberg is our everyday 1B.

Such much for any good will capital Wayne Krvisky had...

[RumorMonger]

Interesting. And keep in mind that the Red Sox are perfectly willing to flip Pena while saying that they want to build around him, a la Andy Marte.

My gut is that they keep Pena though.

[AstoriaMetsFan]

Minaya would never trade Milledge for Soriano ain't gonna happen. Minaya wouldn't give up Milledge for Manny Ramirez or Barry Zito, so he won't trade Milledge for Soriano? Sorry...ain't happenin. If Milledge is traded then he's part of a package for a front of the rotation starter.

[Ed]

RMR,
Pena is overrated. He mashes lefties and is awful against righties. I think the career splits are like .270/.230 or somewhere in that neighborhood. This is a nice trade for Cincy. How anyone can say this is no good for Cincinnati is blasphemy. THEY NEED PITCHING. That's all the fans have said for 5 years and now when they go out and get some we're angry? Wily Mo has power and that's it. We have to start somewhere and don't forget, this will be a big season in the minors to tell if this deal is a steal or not. If Bruce and/or Szymanski have big seasons then Pena was leaving sooner rather than later anyway.

[RumorMonger]

This is a rare deal that could work for both teams...but Pena is the one with upside. Arroyo has little chance of taking a huge leap forward, but Pena has some HOFers on his comparables list. Doesn't mean he becomes Willie Stargell but there's a chance.

According to BP, if I'm reading it right, there's about a 50% chance Pena becomes a star right fielder.

[Ed]

I'll take my chances with Pena not meeting expectations. The guy he's compared to most often is Sammy and we all know where he ended up.

[RumorMonger]

But Sammy's peak was insanely awesome...

[SoxFan8149]

This is a joke. Arroyo has proved himself in Boston. He's actively involved in the community, playing gigs at local events for charity, he took a hometown discount. As if anyone else will ever agree to another discount again. The Sox slapped Arroyo in the face. I'm offended as a Red Sox fan, and feel that Theo better save face by flipping this lazy strikeout machine for something worthwhile. We've got more depth in the outfield than we do in our starting rotation. With Stern's MVP like performance in the WBC, he was a solid option for a Nixon replacement. This trade makes NO sense for Boston. Wells is going to retire, Clemens wont be here until June... by that time we'll be 20 games back in the east and have no chance of coming back. Nice job, Theo. Even Duquette wouldn't have made this trade...

[Ed]

Sammy's peak was insanely awesome, but no doubt chemically enhanced. Pena is awful against rightes, so unless the AL East gets loaded with lefty starters, the Red Sox will have been ripped off.
I'm not saying the Reds are instant contenders, but in 2 or 3 years they could be projected for a nice team.

SP: Harang, Arroyo, Claussen, Bailey. Open spot to be taken by FA, trade or draft pick. Hopefully money spent wisely by departure of Milton/Wilson.

1b: open
2b: Freel
3b: Encarnacion
SS: Lopez
LF: Dunn
CF: Bruce
RF: Kearns
C: LaRue/Valentin

[RMR]

I'm not saying Pena is gonna be an MVP. But Aroyo had a k/9 under 5 last year -- that doesn't bode well at all.

It's not about this deal being a horrible deal. You could argue it a bunch of different ways. It's about all of the other potential deals that could've been made that weren't. It's about Scott Hatteberg and Tony Womack being the right side of our IF.

Pena is a very high risk, high reward guy right now. Aroyo is as valuable as he'll ever be. It was a classic sell low, buy high deal by Reds management.

At the end of the day, we're still gonna be fighting for 5th place. But you'll have a hard time convincing me that this deal really made the Reds any better -- short or long term. Big picture, we don't need another 4th starter. But we just traded one of our most valuable chits for one.

[Brandini]

What an outfeild the Sox will have in 07. Crisp, Many and Pena. I think this is great for the future of the Sox who continue to get younger while the Yankees keep getting older.
Looks as though the Reds should have made this trade before they gave up on Casey, everyone seems to be forgetting about that trade. Also, it will be nice to see Ryan Freel get 600 at bats.

[Ed]

Crisp, Manny and Pena in the OF might be good for hitting, but the defense could be the worst the AL has ever seen.

All in all, I think it is obvious that I love the deal. Pena is all or nothing and I think we have a few of those guys already. I thought the deal would have kept Dunn at 1st and had Freel move to left and Aurilia at 2b. That to me would be the best lineup they could have. I like pitchers who have been successful in the majors. The Reds have been a joke on the mound the past few years and I think Arroyo is better than a 4th. But if he isn't, when's the last time the Reds even had a 3rd starter? If you lead the league in runs, you don't need 1 and 2 starters. And their offense didn't get too depleted in these trades. Casey didn't do much last year and neither did Pena.

[Lenny]

Pena is going to platoon with Nixon in RF, and give Manny a day off every now and then in LF and be insurance for Coco in CF should something happen. Using Pena as a platoon is the problem with this deal because he is a better RF than Nixon. Dustin Mohr is good as gone now. Arroyo will be good in Great American as well.

[Tedd]

If the Red Sox are 20 games out in June, Clemens isn't going to the Red Sox. Not that he's going there anyway.

[Mike Murphy]

I predict... the Cincy Reds will wind up with either Carlos Pena or Hee Seop Choi.

[RumorMonger]

That's a damn good prediction Mike. I'm aboard your bandwagon on that one.

[bobo]

I think "being playoff tested" is just about the last thing the Reds need to worry about when acquiring players.

[bobo]

Also - I think I remember something when Arroyo signed his contract - something like the Red Sox don't give out no-trade clauses, but basically made a handshake agreement that Arroyo wouldn't be traded. I could be imagining it...anyone know?

[Paul]

Arroyo should had a clause in his contract that if traded his contract would increase. Sucks a player takes less money alot less than he would have gotten on the free agent market, to stay with a team and then they trade him fairly quickly after the deal is made. sucks to be Arroyo.

[Jeff]

How can this not looked at as a steal for the Sox?

Combine Nixon's .900 OPS against righties with Pena's .900 OPS against lefties and you have top 3 RF production in MLB. He'll, I'd even say that (assuming healthy) Nixon + Pena will outproduce Sheffield and be close to Vlad.

We're talking about .280 BA with 30-40 HRs.

People forget just how bad Nixon is against lefties. Between '03 and '04 he hit over .330 with over 1.000 OPS against righties.

And Pena mashes lefties as well as Nixon mashes righties.

Arrojo was shown to be nothing more than a bullpen guy since he can only get righties out

[steven]

theo said on weei there never was a gentlemans agreement. i think the red sox are going to be involved in a few more moves over the next week and its hard to judge the move overall until then.

the pitching depth for the sox might be the biggest issue overlooked in this trade. if foulke cant go suddenly they are down to only 5 starters and are gambling a lot on injuries. possibly they are hoping lester is ready to make the jump in a pinch.

from the reds perspective i dont know how people can be against this. they have arroyo for 3 years now.

[Vinylord]

To clarify the language in the Arroyo contract, he was told that "there were no deals on the table" for him, and they "didn't foresee any in the near future." I wish the Bosox would have kept Arroyo to reward his loyalty. They seem quite cold-blooded and duplicitous in this deal.
I notice a trend by ownership to dump all self-proclaimed "idiots", (read "free spitits") and make the team over in the Varitek mold of conservativism. The FO had a problem with the "idiot" image. Arroyo was a long-haired, guitar-playing rocker, in the Johnny Damon mold, for those who haven't seen him. There is one Idiot left - Manny, and Boston probably wouldn't mind granting his trade request, but the only team that can afford him is the Yankees.

[Dan]

Loretta's played short in the past, so assuming he can slide over and play there, the Red Sox may be preparing to flip Pena for Soriano. Bowden's nuts for Pena, so he might pull the trigger for that; maybe the Red Sox have to sweeten it a little bit, but not much. That would solve Boston's big hole in the middle infield for the cost of pushing Papelbon up a slot in the rotation mix. Not the worst of situations for Boston.

"Pena is awful against rightes, so unless the AL East gets loaded with lefty starters, the Red Sox will have been ripped off." ~Ed

Names like Randy Johnson, Kazmir, Lilly, Chacin, BJ Ryan, & Erik Bedard ring a bell? Yeah, the rest of the AL East doesn't have impact lefties...

The Sox moved one of their surplus starting pitchers who was essentially going to be overpaid to be a long reliever for a young high upside power hitting outfielder. It is also worth mentioning he was playing some first base in the winter leagues this year. There is risk involved given the suspect fielding of Pena & impatience at the plate but he's only 24 and has time in his favor. It'll be interesting to see how he is used.

[Ed]

"Pena is awful against rightes, so unless the AL East gets loaded with lefty starters, the Red Sox will have been ripped off." ~Ed

Names like Randy Johnson, Kazmir, Lilly, Chacin, BJ Ryan, & Erik Bedard ring a bell? Yeah, the rest of the AL East doesn't have impact lefties...

Um...loaded meaning 4 lefty starters on each team, not the context you are stating. Look at the stats, less than an .800 OPS vs righties is horrific for a power hitter. His stats are skewed b/c of his ABs against lefties. I'll take a solid starter vs a platoon guy any day. Especially with the Reds offense.

[Devlsh]

Utterly baffling.

Another way to look at the deal is this: The Reds held onto their glut of outfielders (Kearns/Dunn/Griffey/Pena) for quite some time even though they knew what their needs were. And THIS is the deal they were waiting for?

[Nick]

What do you think the odds of the sox trading Nixon????

[Tony]

Not a Red Sox fan, but you have to give Theo Epstein all the credit in the world. Great deal for the Red Sox. Sure, Pena is a risk, but they essentially gave up their 7th starter for him. Even if Wells retired, Arroyo was the 6th guy. They get a guy to platoon with Nixon that has the upside to potentially take over.

The only way this trade looks good for the Reds is if their young OF's come on stronger and quicker than expected. Arroyo is a decent number 3, but better suited to a 4/5 role at the end of the rotation. I don't care about the quality starts he had. That's a mildly overrated statistic anyways.

So now it's Hatteberg at 1st base, with the loss of Pena and Casey? Is it worth it? It's not as if they get any definitive long term pieces with Dave Williams and Bronson Arroyo. More than likely, both are stopgaps until Homer Bailey and others can rise.

[Jack]

I don't think there's any question Boston is the winner in this deal. Arroyo has always been overrated. His whole career he's barely been better than average. The Sox had a ton of flexibility in their rotation, so they flipped an averaged reliever for a guy with amazing upside. If it wasn't for the imprudent Red's rushing of Pena to the big leagues everyone would already know about this guy. He has awesome power and speed, and under the wing of countryman Big Papi, I think he has a chance to develop even more (hopefully for the Sox in the OBP category). For now he can DH, and when Nixon hits the market, the Sox could give Wily a shot. The bottom line is the Sox traded an average player from a position of strength for an extremely talented young guy who can help out now, and probably a lot more in the future.

Wily Mo aside, what are the Red's really getting? A fly ball pitcher who's going to go play in the Great American Juicebox with Ken Griffey Jr. as his CF and possibly Adam Dunn in LF. Yikes. Sure Arroyo pitched in another hitter's haven in Boston, but The Great American Ballpark is one of the few places that might be tougher on pitchers than Fenway.

Sox fans- trust Theo.

[Jack]

I didn't mean to call Arroyo a reliever in that last post. My mistake.

[Ed]

FYI Jack, the Reds didn't rush Pena to the majors. It was in his contract that he had to be there or they had to put him through waivers to send him to the minors.

Alo, just b/c he hits the ball far doesn't mean he's a talented hitter. Wait until he whiffs on 3 curveballs. Then you'll see why Cincy is so excited.

[David]

Good point, now both of our outfields have suspect defesnse, except for the potention of two players.

IE-Kearns and Crips.

[Brandini]

Outfeilding defence is overrated. The White Sox won the series last year with Dye and Podsednick in their outfeild last year.

[Teetz]

Players should always listen to their agents. Fans cry loyalty and betrayal constantly, but at the end of the day it is always what have you done for me lately?

[RumorMonger]

The Sox had awesome outfield defense and it went a long way for them. Pods was basically a CF playing LF, which meant great D. Add in Rowand, one of the game's top CFs.

[Russ]

No handshake deal was made by Theo or the Hoyer Cherington dou at any time. He signed the deal against the advise of his agent.

[Kyle]

You guys should read all the comments the fact that people are arguing that both the reds and sox won means it was equal both these guys have positives and negatives.

Arroyo is nothing special but he will eat 200 innings with around a 4 ERA. The move to GABP will hurt him but that should be counteracted by the mover to the NL. He will be pretty good at a very cheap price for a couple years.

Pena is as of right now a platoon player. He was rushed to the majors because he had to be. The guy was signed to a major league contract out of the DR at the age of 16. By 20 he was out of options and had to be put on the big league team to stay with the Reds. The Reds needed to move one of the outfielders to get themselves some pitching. Pena was not in the same class as Kearns or Dunn who are way better outfielders. This year Pena will get his AB's he will platoon with Nixon as well as backing up the other outfield positions for days off and injuries. The Sox make this move because he helps now as a platoon player and if he can learn like Papi did and correct his swing he can be very good. They traded one of there strengths for a guy with tremendous upside theres probably a 50/50 chance he realizes it but if he does think .275/.340/.540 which is what he hits against lefties. The biggest hole in his swing is that he chases sliders away.

This trade was good both ways the Sox didnt have any glaring needs other than a lefty reliever so they traded there strength for a young guy who could be good in the future. If the Reds wanted to avoid last place they need pitching so they went a got another quality arm. Its true that the Reds dont have any "aces" but to get one of them it would have cost Dunn and that is a price too high to pay. I would like the see the Reds keep Dunn at first and let Freel play the outfield and then platoon Womack and Aurilia at second (I dont like Womack but the Reds seem to). This lineup could produce very well
lf- Freel
2b- Aurilia/Womack
1b- Dunn
cf- Griffey Jr
rf- Kearns
3b- Encarnacion
ss- Lopez
c- LaRue Valentin

[David]

Okay so whats the story behind Basham for David Ross??

Is that a precursor to a Valentine or LaRue trade?

[RumorMonger]

I was going to say the same thing RotoWorld said - that it may mean they want to use Valentin at 1B.

[Ed]

Great statistical breakdown from Buster Olney on Pena...doesn't bode well for Boston.

And Pena is one of those players who is better in theory than in reality. His home run ratio looks great on paper. But on a daily basis, he's been the kind of player who can kill a team, with his strikeouts and his defense (which scouts say is poor and getting worse). Opposing managers, catchers and pitchers will rush to work around the hitters in front of him to get to Pena, because of his strikeouts.

He's also played in a great offensive ballpark in Cincinnati, where he has hit .262, compared to .234 on the road, and Pena is the kind of hitter, so far in his career, that good pitchers exploit. Looked at his numbers against the best pitchers in his own division, and the results are brutal.

Versus Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano, Mark Prior, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt, Brad Lidge, Ben Sheets, Chris Capuano, Chris Carpenter, Jason Isringhausen, Mark Mulder, Oliver Perez and Zach Duke, these are Pena's stats:

120 at-bats, 33 hits, four homers, and 53 strikeouts. Three of the homers were against lefties (two vs. Perez, one vs. Capuano).

In 68 at-bats against right-handed pitchers on this list, he has 33 punchouts and one homer. These numbers suggest he was totally overmatched.

[David]

Whats the deal with Van Buren?

Do the reds have any chance of trading for this guy?

Dane Sardhina? David Ross?