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D'Rays Come Up Big With Joel Guzman

Given his insistence on playing shortstop after this season, it seems apparent that Julio Lugo truly is a rental player for the Dodgers.  Lugo will certainly add more to the 2006 Dodgers than Joel Guzman could have, so the move is somewhat defensible for Ned Colletti.  Still, the Devil Rays won big by getting the 21 year-old.

Tampa Bay surrenders two months of Lugo for six years of young Guzman.  Entering the 2005 season, Guzman was a 20 year-old shortstop compared to Alfonso Soriano by Baseball Prospectus.  He ranked 7th overall on their top 50 prospects list.  Even then he was a little big for the middle infield.

Before the '06 season the Dodgers decided to move Guzman to left field.  He still managed to garner the 14th ranking on BP's Top 50 list.  After surprisingly contending for a job with the Dodgers out of spring training, the team wisely decided to give him some seasoning at Triple A.  He was doing an OK job in Las Vegas when Jeff Kent injured his wrist in June.  Grady Little decided to bat the kid cleanup in his first start for L.A. 

With Kent and Chad Billingsley pushing for his roster spot, Guzman was sent back to Triple A a few weeks later.  Cashman Field in Las Vegas inflates offense significantly, but Guzman has only slugged .443 there this season.  His plate discipline is definitely a work in progress.  The Devil Rays can afford to give him some time in Triple A to get comfortable in his position (not sure where he'll play, but one article indicates first base).

The D-Rays now find themselves even more loaded with premium young talent (though Guzman may fit right in with the attitude problems prevalent on the Triple A Durham club).  What's more, the team should have the third overall pick in next June's draft if the current standings hold up.


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1. I like the trade for the D-Rays.

2. Is Oliver Perez shot? What did you think about that trade as a whole?

Yeah, I like this deal for D-Rays, too. They really needed someone to play first with a major-league bat, and if they were intent on trading Huff out of the organization, someone other than Travis Lee needs to play there, and Gomes just does not have the glove to play there.

Guzman is a hell of a physical specimen. If he can pull it all together, he could be a monster.

Who knows about Perez? Certainly worth a gamble, maybe Peterson can turn him around, but I'm starting to think his reputation as a guru is much ado about not a lot.

Perez, I think, is far from finished, but I think he and the Pirates reached the end of their rope with each other, and this may be a case of a change of scenery being best for all involved.

Bottom line on Perez: High risk, high reward.

Ned Colletti proved himself to be an idiot today. Giving up JGuzman in order to get Lugo. While Lugo is a good player, he just gave up Baez and Aybar to get Betemit. So why go get another MI? especially at that cost. Now once kent is healthy they have a jogjam. Plus getting Maddux was dumb dumb and dumb. Itzuris isn't the greatst player in the world but he's a hell of a lot better than a washed up SP that needs to retire

Pretty low risk gamble to get Perez given Nady's low upside (this is as good as it gets).

It all depends on Oliver's velocity. He was in the mid 90s consistently in '04.

"Pretty low risk gamble to get Perez given Nady's low upside (this is as good as it gets)."

Really? Nady's never going to be better? But he's only 27.

"It all depends on Oliver's velocity. He was in the mid 90s consistently in '04"

Well, i've spoken to some Pirate fans and they've said, "His fastball now sits in the 91-93 range and touches 95. The problem has been locating it, which, needless to say, has crippled him. The slider is still nasty and has excellent tilt. The problem is, obviously, he can't throw it behind in the count 3-0."

Dodger spending prospects like Yankee spending money.

The Dodgers tried to use Guzman all season, but they saw something that told them he wasn't the real deal. Maybe it's his attitude, maybe he won't cut it in the field (he didn't have a position). They still have prospects that make most other organzations slobber. I think that two or three months with Lugo will be something to remember.

Well it was the Dodgers' idea to move Guzman to LF this spring. And they only gave him 19 at-bats and eight games.

Correction: they moved him to LF in spring, and he played there in the minors. Then when he was called up they mostly used him at 3B.

so roto, What do you do for the rest of the season now that the deadline has passed?

Joel Guzman has stalled in his career. He's 21 years old and he's probably a worse player than he was when he was 19. He's verging on Edwin Jackson country. He could make big steps but his progress has grinded to a halt thus far.

And please, no more Mets, Cardinals, Red Sox rumors ever. They're virtually all 100% bogus, especially anything coming from Viva El Birdos or Sons of Sam Horn.

Well was, I still got waiver deals and the upcoming offseason's free agents. You should still keep comin'.

Not buying the Edwin Jackson comparison...for one thing Jackson stalled for several years and bombed at Triple A. Guzman maaaaaybe took a small step back but didn't bomb, and that's during his first try at Triple A at age 21 while he was changing positions. A lot different.

Yeah, you're right about the risk being low as relates to Nady. What I really meant was the risk being high in terms of taking on Perez' salary (not really a major issue for the Mets, though) and also hoping that he can become an effective contributor in the rotation THIS SEASON.

But at least in terms of what Minaya gave up to get Perez and Hernandez, yeah, you right, not much risk at all.

Everyone gave Edwin Jackson more time because good pitching is hard to come by. I think the Dodgers gave up on Guzman because he didn't hit when he got a cup of coffee, and he didn't catch fire down in AAA. Matt Kemp, James Loney, Andre Ethier, and Russell Martin all did the opposite, and they're still with the team.

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