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NL Starting Rotation Projections

Head over to RotoAuthority to see which NL team has the best starting rotation, in my opinion. I should mention that I've projected the Rocket as an Astro so he's boosting their ranking.  Rosenthal has the Brewers as his top surprise pick of '07; I would agree based on their rotation.

And check out AllCubs.com to see who ranked #10 on the list of the ten worst Cubs in recent memory.

Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News speculates that the Rangers could sign Bruce Chen or Ryan Drese to add starting depth.

Does Howie Kendrick deserve to beat out Jered Weaver for the Angels' best under-25 prospect? Kevin Goldstein thinks so.

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Comments

If the Cubs starters have an ERA of 4.11, I'll eat my hat.

Depends on whether Prior can give them 100 innings of a 4 ERA.

I'm not touching Jered Weaver this year.

Mark my words.

Jered Weaver will get ROCKED.

Kendrick is by FAR the best prospect the Angels have.

I'd take Kendrick over Brandon Wood too.

Think Derek Jeter at 2B with more steals.

oh boy the rangers can get drese! omg and to think of that awesome trade when they got him and einar diaz! only giving up travis hafner! wow john hart was a visionary. yeah i'm a little bitter, oh well.

Kendrick is actually not a fast runner...

"Kendrick is actually not a fast runner..."

Jeter isn't that fast either.

Both have above average speed, but Kendrick will have the green light. Comes down to opportunity I suppose, and I see them giving him the green light.

Bottom line: Kendrick is a monster in the making.

Perhaps Weaver rounds out to a good #3 down the road. But he will be overrated in fantasy leagues across the country.

His tucking the ball behind his body will only work the first time around.

By the way.....

Brandon Wood = Dallas McPherson

Which means he's crap once he has to face league average pitching.

I have read scouting reports where Kendrick's speed is described as fringe-average...

I think Weaver is the real deal. I see him at a 3.88 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in '07. That's a #2 in the AL I would say.

I don't have the slightest clue on how to make proper projections, but yours just don't feel right. No offense intended, of course. This is what I expect from Mike Hampton next season:

24 G, 24 GS, 11-7, 144 IP, 1.43 WHIP, 4.27 ERA, 4.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9

Those are simply his averages since coming over to Atlanta (removing last year from the denominator because he didn't make a single pitch). That might not be very professional or statistically sound, but it seems fair to me. ottom Line - he's been better than people give him credit for in recent years, he's had over a year to recover from a surgery that is becoming routine and he's a fierce competitor that will be eager to return to form for the team that gave him his second chance. I don't know about you, but I like that set of numbers for my Braves. Maybe I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt to an extreme degree, but you did the same by projecting Mark Prior as a 100 IP guy with a 4 ERA.

would you trade kendrick for Felix, straight up AL only, same price/cheap but Felix is till 09 and kendrick till 10.

I am willing to bet $1,000 that the braves finish 5th or better in nl era rankings from the starting pitching.

I can't believe you have the Cubs, Mets & Reds rotations all better than the Braves'. Full year of Pedro & I put them there above us. But he is out til mid-season so I put them slightly below. Horrible projections the Pirates I would project better than you have also. I really see alotta late 80's/ early 90's Braves in the Pirates. They are gonna be alot better than people think. The only thing I think they need which is gonna be hard to find is a 3B with power and plus Defense. Then move Sanchez to 2B. A RHSP to eat innings.

I completely disagree with your marlins projection for the staff. I could see maybe LAD ahead of us but that is it. I just, wow that way so way low on them. You either predict half of the staff to get hurt or just every member to slump. I completely disagree.

Is that guy a total idiot? I was like ok I can see that with houstons current rotation...but when I read down it says that is including roger. HE is an idiot houstons average era he says is 4.12 or something like that. With oswalt, jennings, williams, sampson, nieve there projected era is 3.57 what is he talking about??? If you throw in clemens then you have to drop that considerably.

Jeter's speed is well above average. Find any scouting report that says otherwise.

Can't argue with many of the projections, though I think the Mets, Astros (even with Clemens), and Reds may be a bit on the low side.

Pirates seems a little high. I think their rotation will be very decent.

Glad to have generated some discussion on it...

The idea that Houston's staff would post a 3.57 ERA without Clemens is a tad far-fetched.

Florida:

Olsen 3.89
Willis 4.00
Johnson 4.05
Mitre 4.42
Sanchez 4.53
Nolasco 4.61

Atlanta:

Smoltz 3.57
Hudson 4.12
James 4.76
Davies 5.33
Hampton 5.26

Pittsburgh:

Duke 4.30
Snell 4.04
Maholm 4.62
Gorzelanny 4.27
Chacon 6.98

(here, you could assume they would NOT let Chacon pitch like that for 125 innings, so the staff ERA could be much better)

I meant 3.67 sorry...I dont think he was using the correct potential 4 and 5 starter candidates. Sampson/albers Nieve/wandy either way they all average out less than 4. Plus if they bring up patton to replace wandy mid season. We would be looking fantastic. I have done the math like 5 times and i cant get our average era at 4 with any potential combination..seriously try it see if you can. Thats without clemens...you throw in his 2.20 era and that brings it down a ton. I just dont know how he got those numbers.

I don't think even Bavasi is stupid enough to trade Felix, a sure-fire future ace, for a could be lead-off second basemen in Kendrick.

Switch up the names, would you trade a Marcus Giles type player for a Jake Peavy? I know everyone has their price, but I would think Felix is close to the top of untouchables.

How accurate are these "projections"? What's your success rate in previous seasons?

What math are you talking about? What projection system puts Sampson/Albers/Nieve/Rodriguez/Patton below 4? None of those guys are likely to be below 4, let alone all of them.

All the projection systems are in the .4-.5 range for correlation...it's crappy but it's better than a guess.

I say a 3.92 ERA and a 14 and 8 record from Felix Hernandez

Florida:

Olsen 3.89 - He will be around there most likely even better
Willis 4.00 - Has a career ERA far below this
Johnson 4.05 - Was in the low 3s all year all till hurt
Mitre 4.42 - Not part of the rotation is the 6-7th option
Sanchez 4.53 - Had an era starting of 2 last year and absolutely dominated and will eb stronger next year this projection is just bogus
Nolasco 4.61 - Take out his starts he was injured in his era drops below 4. If you take out his starts vs the mets his era drops below 3.5

I think your projections there above are rather simply put horrible based upon career preformance. You are projecting their whole team to have dead arm ti seems.

I also feel the Cubs should be one of the bottom 5 rotations in projections as they have a number 2 in zambrano but after that the team has many question-marks.

15 SP's in the entire NL had under 4 ERA's last year, and somebody is seriosly saying all of the possible 4th & 5th starters for the Astros will be under 4 next year?

Wow.

I find it funny the cubs go from a 4.74 ERA to a under 4 ERA when their team was not close to that value last year. Their staff has not been upgraded really at all.
Unless Lilly is the second coming of Bob Gibson they wont be close to that.

Sanchez 2.83
Johnson 3.10
Willis 3.87
Olsen 4.04
Nolasco 4.82

Now assuming that they keep Nolasco in the rotation (which I see he will be closer instead). Sanchez had a 2 ERA when starting only, Johnson was Under 3 when starting (relief raised). Olsen got stronger as the year went on.

I find your projections very poor for the marlins dude.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?teamPosCode=flo&statType=2&timeFrame=1&c_id=mlb&sitSplit=&venueID=null&subScope=teamCode&timeSubFrame2=null&baseballScope=mlb&timeSubFrame=2006&&sortByStat=ERA

Baseballfan79 is clearly a marlins homer. I don't think the Marlins will be as bad as rotoauthority listed, but they won't be nearly as good as you listed. Sanchez will not post an ERA under 3, he'll be lucky to post one around 3.5 (which is still damn good). I'll be interested to see how the Marlins pitchers fare now that better scouting reports will have been put out on them.

What do you mean by a #2 in Zambrano?

No matter how much people want to rip on Lilly, he had the 19th best ERA in the AL, and a switch to the NL Central will definitely lower his ERA coming from the AL East.

A full year of Hill & Lilly will certainly lower the ERA of the Cubs staff & is a major improvement over last year. I don't know how you can argue with that.

So Sanchez is now the best pitcher in the NL & Johnson is the 4th best SP. Congratulations. You've worked very hard for your Homer status & you deserve it.

Those are the numbers from last year. I did not say how they will do Rawr. THAT IS HOW THEY DID.

My projects would be the following

Willis 3.40 - around that area for he started very slow last year because of the WBC, but he also has a trend of doing better on every other year. It would be the opposite year, his numbers are projected partly of him getting more used to his defense and their improvement with the best infield coach in the majors (perry hill).

johnson 3.80 - A rise in the era for him by a good margain but still a respectable era like he posted most of the year till he tired out.

Sanchez 3.50 - Coming off of TJ surgery it is 2-3 years till someone has full control, his potential has always been sky high with his number of pitches and control of this pitches. His stuff got stronger as the year went on and he took the majors. A big jump in era but only because his BAA cant keep that low, even though he has a trend for his career to have a low BAA.

Nolasco 3.90 - His era was projectable of different times last year. He went on streaks as a young pitcher does. Starting with problems for his leg for an injury he got hurt the ERa as giradi pitched him hurt, as well problems with the mets should lesson to a degree. They were responsible for over a full point of his era being raised by themselves.

Olsen - I see 2 possibilities either an era around 4 again or a complete break out year for him. His numbers trends has two fashions when he has control he has a very low era and is pretty much unhittable. When he does not have that control he will be the best lefty in the NL. But he is young and it takes time to get that. In the second half he started to and his era dropped by leaps and bounds. The trends states he will have a good if not great year (plus interest of every club wanting him in trade points to it too). Around a 3.50 era I think though.

I think the marlins will have a top 3 pitching staff in the NL next year.

So Sanchez is now the best pitcher in the NL & Johnson is the 4th best SP. Congratulations. You've worked very hard for your Homer status & you deserve it.

Posted by: pinetarhand | January 24, 2007 at 03:26 PM


READ what I wrote, that was their Numbers Last year. They were that good. I didnt project them to this year with that. I even gave a link to the stats. Please go look it up.

They had the 5th best Starter ERA in MLB last year for are reason.

Stop being foolish, that is not homer that is facts I posted.

Sounds like a lot of people are mad about their teams' projected ERA. Take it easy fellas, just Roto's projection - not the actual season. But those are pretty realistic. Looks like all those teams will finish +/- 3 at the end of the year.

I think the Marlins will do terrible this year. Those rookie pitchers will finally be tested over an entire season and be asked to pitch more innings than they ever have - especially with the lack of bullpen. They'll be staying in games a little longer than they probably should. Not to mention the sophomore jinx and mediocre-at-best defense.

Baseballfan, you can't just project future ERA purely off last year's. That seems to be the gist of your guesses.

Mine are based on their peripherals and Bill James's component ERA formula. Yours are not impossible, but I don't agree with your methodology.

My bad baseballfan79 on calling you a homer, but I did read what you wrote & you never said those were last year's stats so you can see where the confusion came from.

*pinetarhand*

Obviously you cant read. I said the AVERAGE of ALL starting rotation pitchers would be under 4...without clemens. With Clemens it is Way below 4. Not that the 4 and 5 would be. I saw one projection that calculated jennings performance in minute maid park where it calcuated how should adapt to the park and how the alititude differnce would effect his pitching. Same for woody Jennings Era went up slightly from last year and so did woody williams but both below 4 and oswalts actually went down from last year. Sampson era projections range from 3.oo tl 4.5o but I believe it will be around 4. Anyways i have found no combination of pitchers to equal 4.oo let alone exceed. the thing that really got me was he said it was with clemens. Clemens is expected to pitch 2.20 - 2.35 era that drops dow a 5 man rotation with sampsons era drastically. In other words his projections were based on opinions and speculations (biased ones) and no career numbers and mathmatical calculations.

The Pirates rotation will surprise a lot of people. If not this year then next year. Just good raw talent that they need to bring together. Dukes and Maholm will get better and better and the addition of Adam Laroche (who WILL be missed in ATL at least for a few seasons) will give them an extra 30 bombs and 100 RBI
Perfect fit for their 3b needs would be a Blalock, but no way they can get him. If they don't have to give up too much maybe Mark Teahen who will be traded only when the Royals think Alex Gordon is ready.

beeniez,

Who is even in the Florida bullpen worth mentioning? Anyone at all?

First off zips projections I know FOR SURE...were based on jason jennings and woody williams both performing for there other teams. And do not take into consideration ball park changes and infield/outfield defense changes. Mr Roto. Also zips gave oswalt a plus minus factor of 15% rangings from 2.70 to 3.74 the average at 3.17 are you kidding? The only time he had an era above 3.00 was in 04 when he was battling injury. He will perform right at 3.00 if not lower. Also I cant figure out the logic to zips or petcoas projections of chris sampson. The only major leaque stats to compare to are a 2.12 era average. That is not conclusive information to validate any era let alone a 4.29. But even with his era at that and oswalt and rogers corrected to what the wil actually be and woody williams and jason jennings is projected at a 4% increase from last year to do park changes. Also Woody williams era will be around 4 if not lower. So with that lets do the math

Roy 3.00
Roger 2.55
Jason Jennings 3.92
Woody Williams 4.15
Chris Sampson 4.29 (not going to be that high)

Total of a 3.576

"Who is even in the Florida bullpen worth mentioning? Anyone at all?"

It's hard to tell because they have no veteran experience and so many young arms. But, then again, most of their rotation started out in the bullpen and surprised a lot of people. Yusmeiro Petit could be a decent middle relief man - that is if he doesn't make up the 5th spot in the rotation. Other than that, it's a terrible bullpen.

Roto I am basing mine partly on last year and partly on what their scouting reports state they should be like. If we go just based purely off of what was supposed to happen. There are many parts within the whip of a player and their BAA that can take into account if you are going to project a player out. Assuming for instance the marlins defense will be the same worse orbetter? I believe they will improve based upon the improvements shown through the end of the season shown in the defense of the team (their errors and RF of almost every player were betteredfrom first half to second half except jacobs whom was playing on 1 leg). The park factors also should be taken into context when assuming what will happen. The heavy humidty and huge park of the marlins will play into helping keep down those Era's. There is alot of factors to look into. We can I guess agree to disagree but I have hard time seeing a staff with a top 5 in starting era go to bottom third of MLB in one year without major injuries.

A2000 - 4 arms to watch are Tankersly whom is a good lefty that is nice for setup and perhaps closing. Kevin Gregg is a solid relief arm and went to the NL he should better himself slight for that and the park factors here. Henry Owens has a good chance of making the team out of Spring training and looking like he could be something interesting. Pinto is the last arm I would watch he is a lefty that has had control problems in the past but he has amazing stuff and did not give up a run in the final month of the season. He was really lights out.


pinetarhand

No worries dude, I should of been more clear I was posting last years :) trying to steal time from work to post and look up information for posting makes me less through then I should be. My apologies for that.

bviously you don't know how to write seeing that I'm not the only one who read it that way (look at rotoauthority's post). Learn better grammar so we know what you're saying. "Sampson/albers Nieve/wandy either way they all average out less than 4." How are we supposed to know you weren't talking about the 4 pitchers (aka they) you named in the same sentence?

So by your projection, the Astros have far and away the best rotation in MLB?

Also just letting you know that zips projected this last year:

Oswalt 3.39 he pitched 2.98
Clemens 3.32 he pitched 2.30
Backe 4.96 he pitched 3.77
Jennings 5.39 he pitched 3.78
Williams 4.45 he pitched 3.65

By the way some guy pointed out that only 15 SPs had eras below 4...well read that smart guy.

TARD!
If you read the post in context I was refering to them in ADDITION to the other starting pitchers. The slashes were indicating and or combinations. Dang...who is this guy?

PECOTA is not kind to the Astros. But for the record PECOTA for the Marlins:

Olsen - 4.30
Johnson - 4.18
Nolasco - 4.74
Sanchez - 4.81
Willis - 4.11

That's no where near what that baseballfan79's talking about.

Ok thanks baseballfan forgot about Tankersly

Again, Astros guy...you can't just add up the five ERAs and divide by five to get the overall.

pecota ya I didnt even quote them cause last year I laughed and there projections and refuse to read them...for some reason the national sports media always makes the astros look bad. Like the whole yankees/clemens move. Not happening.

Then how do you do it...because it is astros you add an extra 1.00 to offset it?

Uh...no...you multiply the sum of the earned runs allowed times nine and divide by the sum of innings pitched. Your method weights Clemens the same as everyone else when he's going to pitch a half season.

Ok thats understandable but there would many more variables than that if that were the case because innings pitched would be dractically different for each team. With astros having a fight for best 4 and 5 rotations spots not telling how many innings they will pitch. Also my argument that your "earned runs allowed" could have just said era was incorrect. Which it is.

A2000. A Teahen trade would probably cost McCarthy + prospect (maybe Diamond). Won't be able to get him cheap.

Im done arguing...your numbers dont make sense and your sources are hardly valid...so I guess ill take my logic and you take your biased guessing and we will just agree to disagree...mr rosenthal

megastahr,

astros are going to suck this year, exept for roy oswalt

cardinals are gona do what they do better, win the division so just be it.

and let albert pujols beat u. poor lidge.

I was OK with the DBacks ERA average but just don't think our pitching rates as 10th in the NL. We have a few question marks that could go either way but we have a solid #1-4 and 5 decent pitchers competing to be our #5.

Are ballparks taken into consideration?

Ballparks are considered.

Hernandez 5.16
Webb 3.33
Davis 4.54
Johnson 3.98
Eveland 4.40

I can't believe how patient Roto is being with some of you.

"Im done arguing...your numbers dont make sense and your sources are hardly valid...so I guess ill take my logic and you take your biased guessing"

Where is your logic?? The way Roto's doing is the way EVERYONE projects ERAs, while your only "logic" is saying, "I read somewhere X, so I figure this will be their ERA..." What valid sources are you using, bud? PECOTA and Bill James are hardly valid? You're telling me that BILL JAMES is not a valid source of projecting? Bill James?

Bill James? THE Bill James? I'd like to meet YOUR sources that are more credible than a method Bill James or Baseball Prospectus came up with.

And you have a helluva lot of nerve to call Roto's guesses "biased." Are you stating here to everyone that you have no bias trying to pull all those ERAs down under 4? Now you're just lying.

Uh-oh... here come FACTS!

"First off zips projections I know FOR SURE...were based on jason jennings and woody williams both performing for there other teams."

Ooh, sorry, but here's the updated ZiPs spreadsheet projection, with Jennings and Williams in Houston:
Jennings-- 4.17
Williams-- 4.56

Gosh, it's neat when one side, yknow, brings facts to the table.


Oh and to comment on another discussion, Tankersley's a beast. I hope he's closing for Florida be the All-Star break.

RotoAuthority,

I was one of the first to disagree with your projections and I still do, but I at least hope that I didn't come off as ignorant and ridiculous as some of the posters that followed suit. Projecting is a difficult business, especially when you're bound to be unfairly scrutinized by rabid fans that clearly don't know much about anything. I came up with the following "projection" for the 2007 edition of Mike Hampton by simply getting the averages of his principal stats for the duration of his tenure with the Braves. It paints a far rosier picture than your partial projection and I'm wondering why that is. Honest question: what's wrong with my approach and how does your differ? Here's what I got as posted above:

24 G, 24 GS, 11-7, 144 IP, 1.43 WHIP, 4.27 ERA, 4.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9

I realize that either you or I could be right, but why do we vary so much? I know happen to think that our improved bullpen could get him to 12-6. I have the feeling that Hampton's still being punished for his time in Colorado and/or not being given the credit he deserves while coming back from surgery. I'd greatly appreciate a direct reply. Thanks!

Baseballfan79, how are you bitching about what he put for florida, then you go and call zambrano a number 2?


Oh and to comment on another discussion, Tankersley's a beast. I hope he's closing for Florida be the All-Star break.

He has a good shot of getting the job opening day as long as they arent foolish and trade for benitez.


Baseballfan79, how are you bitching about what he put for florida, then you go and call zambrano a number 2?

look at his periphals, he walks many batters. If willis is a number 2 so is Zambrano dude. Personally I feel both could be considered 1s or 2s just depends on the scale folks look at. But, I dont buy into the Hill (27 year old break out late bloomer), I dont buy into Lilly becoming a stud in the NL. If I am wrong I will eat crow, I have admitted I was wrong before. But I really dont think the cubs have that impressive a rotation at all. They definitely are not top 5 in the NL by any measure.

I take back what I said about Zambrano after looking his numbers over again. High walk rate or not he is a number 1 either way.

Well he did walk a lot last year compared to the years before. Hopefully that will go down this year since he will have better run support, and a better rotation than last year to support him. As a cubs fan im just glad I dont have to worry about prior or wood. Every non cub fan can laugh all they want about who we signed, but its a + for a cubs fan just to not have to worry about prior or wood. And lilly will be better going to the NL than you think.

Oh and by the way, I do support your boy olsen, he as born in the same city as me.

I have Hampton at these peripherals:

4.5 K/9
10.0 H/9
4.0 BB/9
0.90 HR/9
162 IP

That's a 5.26 ERA using the component ERA formula.

His control is tough. It has fluctuated quite a bit and I expect it to suffer after such a long break. Obviously I could easily be wrong here.

PECOTA has it at 3.3 but only sees him throwing 53 innings. ZiPs and Shandler agree here.

If I substitute in 3.4 he's still at a 4.89 ERA. Better than 5.26, but same ballpark.

Also guys with 144 IP are very hard pressed to win 11 games, especially with ERAs over 4. 8 or 9 would be more reasonable.

Thanks for your reply Roto. I freely admit that I know very little about the world of new stats and real baseball knowledge, so I'm always looking to learn. Projections have impressed/confused me as much as any other aspect of that world, so I hope you don't mind my picking your brain on the subject since you appear well-versed on it.

Thanks for breaking Hampton down for me, even though he's an obviously difficult player to project. I have to say that I wonder why you project all of his peripherals to be worse than what he's actually posted since coming over to Atlanta.

You have him at:
4.5 K/9, 10.0 H/9, 4.0 BB/9, 0.90 HR/9 and 162 IP
He's actually posted:
4.7 K/9, 9.5 H/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9 and 144 IP

Again, I think that he's being penalized for his horrendous stint in Colorado and/or being subjectively limited due to his returning from injury, both of which seem unfair and inaccurate. Thanks for pointing out the nuance of games won against IP, and so I've modified my projection somewhat. Here goes:

24 G, 24 GS, 8-4, 144 IP, 75 K, 54 BB, 153 H, 11 HR, 1.43 WHIP, 4.27 ERA

Again, that's almost entirely based on his yearly averages since being acquired by the Braves but, while I gladly grant you that this approach is probably overly simplistic, I think it's fair, objective and likely to be accurate. If there are any obvious flaws, please do point them out. Again, I'd love to read what you have to say about all this. If I'm wrong, tell me why and I'll take it under consideration; I'm not affraid of being wrong. Thanks!

nickjs21...nice facts

Like I said here is 2006 zips projections compared to what they really did.

Also just letting you know that zips projected this last year:

Oswalt 3.39 he pitched 2.98
Clemens 3.32 he pitched 2.30
Backe 4.96 he pitched 3.77
Jennings 5.39 he pitched 3.78
Williams 4.45 he pitched 3.65

I based my eras off what they actually have done and what used zips and other projections stats and information to determined. They were wrong about every pitcher i listed by almost 1.0 so if you would use your brain and not just spit off stuff you read then you might understand. Sorry that might be stretching it. My projections are not 100 percent buy they WILL be closer than rotos. I mean he has oswalt at almost 3.20 and he hasnt been above 3 in i dont know how long except in 04 and we all know why. My point those projections are way to high...I mean it said roger was going to have a 3.32 era last year...what tard though that? it was 1.02 off. So in other words nickjs21 research more than one source before you spout off about how you bring facts. I have read jennings houston projections but that wasnt the ones he used that was my point...he just threw stuff together.

Roto said they're fairly accurate, give or take .5-.6.

That applies to Oswalt. Is it really that out of the question to have Oswalt an above 3.00 ERA pitcher? He comes dangerously close every year and one bad inning will make it +3.00.

I think you might be the only person that projected Clemens as a sub-2.50 ERA at his age and after that long break. He still boggles everyone's mind.

Projection are based on if a player is healthy. Backe wasn't healthy and didn't have a full year last year. His 8 starts were 3.77, who's to say he goes the whole season like that?

The projection process for park inflation might be a year or so behind because Jennings' 5.39 was basically in line with his past few seasons. After introducing humidity balls to Coors Field, his pitching stats improved greatly. Was last year his real numbers? Career numbers? Fluke? Humidity balls too much of an advantage? He did pitch better at Coors, which is unheard of.

And Williams, well, can't win them all. Guess projections were just wrong on that one.

Why are you so mad about those projections? Houston's rotation coming at #3 is pretty generous. Plus, Clemens isn't even a sure thing.

Couldn't you just admit that you don't even care about the logic/facts of it all? It's pretty clear your sole purpose for taking these projections to battle is your blatant homerism, or else you'd have an issue with other teams' projections.

If the Astros' pitching staff has an ERA under 3.60 in 2007, I will give birth to Nolan Ryan. Who will then sign with the Yankees.

Just for the record I traded Kendrick and got Felix.

"I based my eras off what they actually have done and what used zips and other projections stats and information to determined."

Seriously, I've read that sentence 10 times & I still don't know what exactly it says. Now, I may be a TARD (nice effect with the capitals btw, it really brought a tear to my eye), but at least I can write well enough for people to understand.

ZiPs projections for Clemens was far off & I don't know why.

Now look at Oswalts peripherals for 2004 (1.24 WHIP, .260 BAA) & 2005 (1.20 WHIP, .262 BAA). They were almost identical. The only differences in his stats from those years is that he had 20 more K's in '04 & a .54 higher ERA. A 1.2 WHIP & a .260 BAA will probably give you closer to a 3.5 ERA than a 3 ERA for most pitchers. Take someone like Carpenter for example. He had a better WHIP; a much better BAA; & more K's than Oswalt, yet his ERA was higher. So if you actually look at Oswalt's peripherals, he's more of a 3.2 - 3.5 ERA pitcher. Since that is what people who project stats go off of, that is the ERA they will give him. It's more logical than "he's never had over a 3 ERA so how could he possible put up a 3.2" kind of logic because the law of averages says that the pendulum will swing back the other way eventually.

Backe only made 8 starts last year. How is that indicative of what his ERA should have been last year if he had pitched a full season?

Show me 1 guy who predicted that kind of breakout from Jennings last year. Bet you can't find 1.

Who would have predicted that 40 year old Woody Williams was going to drop his ERA 1.2 from the previous year? Nobody. They predicted some return to form, but there's no way anybody would have taken them seriously if they had predicted that kind of performance from Williams last year.

Bottom line, reality check. Does the addition of Jennings & Williams give the Astros a good enough staff to get under a 3.6 ERA? Does anybody think that Williams or Jennings will do as good as last year? By your ERA predictions, the Astros would have a SP ERA of about 3.7 (after adding in 50 or 60 IP from a league average pitcher to replace Clemens 1st half & whatever Sampson can't do once he reaches his limit). They had a 4.15 last year. Is this staff that much better with those additions to drop about .5 in ERA & be the best in MLB? I doubt it.

Hahaha, I love it, Braves fans have been ripping the MEts pitching all winter and are projected behind us. Awesome stuff.

"I completely disagree with your marlins projection for the staff. I could see maybe LAD ahead of us but that is it."

The funny thing is you have repeatedly called pitchers out after one good year by saying they dont have any experience. You have exactly one starting pitcher with more then 1 season of experience. After the way the fish stepped it up and their whole team played over their heads it would be easy for them to have a let down season and take a couple of steps back. Nobody is going to be surprised by Johnson or Olsen or Nolasco or Sanchez anymore. There are now deeper scouting reports on these guys and word travels fast. I think it is out of the question to expect a repeat performance of 06

Guitarhero,

This is a cumulative Starter ERA ranking. It has nothing to do with the bullpen. Their SP ERA last year was 4.6, which placed them 7th in the AL. The injury prone staff is the holes I was referring to. You just don't know how many innings you can get out of Holliday, Burnett, Chacin, Thomson, or Ohka. To say Chacin/Ohka/Thomson/rookies will produce league average pitching is folly. You just don't know how well or how much any of them will contribute.

Wrong topic. I don't know how I did that, but oops. Sorry bout that.

Oh and by the way, I do support your boy olsen, he as born in the same city as me.

Posted by: ptk420biatch | January 24, 2007 at 10:46 PM

He is a huge cub fan, in 2003 he was in chicago at the game actually with a marlins hat and a cub jersey sorta amusing story they tell yearly on the tv when we go up there.

The Phillies have the best rotation in baseball. They dont have one weakness in that rotation.

The 2007 Phillies are World Champs

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