Preston Wilson Re-Signs With Cards

According to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Preston Wilson has re-signed with the Cardinals.  Seems similar to the Matt Murton/Cliff Floyd situation, where Chris Duncan will still be the main guy in left but he'll lose some PT.

RotoWorld reports that the deal is for $1MM with another $500,000 possible in incentives.

Comments

[wood34]

good move for the Cards.
I don't think Chris Duncan will be that good.

[Aduncaroo]

One things for sure, its a defensive upgrade!!!

Seriously though...I don't know. Roto has it right by saying it's a lot like the Murton\Floyd thing. I don't know if I like Murton losing playing time, and if I were a Cards fan I don't know if I would like Duncan losing playing time. Wilson is good to have off the bench, though I'm not so sure if it takes away much pt from Duncan. If Duncan keeps his pace from last year, and got 500 ABs, he could hit 40 bombs. I don't know if you want Wilson taking ABs from him.

[stormstarter28]

Wilson will only start over Duncan against left-handed pitchers, and if Wilson weren't on the team, I think Taguchi would start against lefties. This is a very good signing for our offense...Wilson rocks left handers.

[plh903]

R/L splits for RH hitters aren't predictive. But they are for LH hitters, and Duncan can't hit lefties to save his life. He also can't catch a fly ball.

Wilson can also play CF if he has too, and at the very least Juan can shift over when Ballgame sits.

Whatever. Wilson could have a very nice 300 PA's, and mitigate some of the concerns against lefties. This is fine, at least it bumps Gooch down the totem pole.

So is essentially worthless, I'm rooting for Marrero to make the team so there is no need for either him or Bennett. Which won't happen as they would both have to be DFA'd. It's a nice thought though.

[Darin]

"If Duncan keeps his pace from last year, and got 500 ABs, he could hit 40 bombs. I don't know if you want Wilson taking ABs from him."

Yeah, I'm pretty sure Duncan's capable of hitting 40 homers....(that was sarcasm). He had one great month last year and should have been benched by the end of the year.

The Cardinals are not the same team they used to be. Pujols and Carpenter are going to break their backs carrying this team. At this point, the NL Central is up for grabs between the Astros, Cardinals, Brewers and possibly Cubs....I have no faith in the Cubs, they always find away to piss it away, but I have to at least give them some recognition.

Preston Wilson isn't a horrible sign as a 4th/5th outfielder, but to depend on him in even a platoon role, might be stretch. In what was supposed to be a bounce back season ended up being a regression. 3 seasons of being hurt and/or anything close to decent makes me believe he probably doesn't finish the season on the team...that's just my opinion.

[plh903]

"He had one great month last year and should have been benched by the end of the year."

His Sept OPS was .794 and that was by far his worst month. There wasn't another corner outfielder on the team that was going to give you even that.

I don't think he will hit 40 bombs either, but if he can consolidate his gains from last year somewhat (most notably a 1.047 against RH'ers) then he will have a fine year. Wilson should protect him against LHP and high leverage defensive situations. They could make a nice platoon.

Of course, one or both could fall of a cliff and Reyes and Wainwright might not hit their projections, Jimmy could hit his head again in Spring Training and Rolen's shoulder might fall off.

Still, any team with Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds, and Carpenter are dangerous. Throw in Duncan, Reyes and Wainwright hitting their projections, and that Eckstein, Encarnacion, and Kennedy are well above average defensively and can all hit a little--and it looks fine to me.

Oddly enough, most of these question marks remind me of the 2003-2004 offseason, hysterically similar in fact.

They are a disaster away from a below .500 season like the rest of the NL Central mentionables, but they had about 9 last year and won the World Series. I'm really not too worried, they should be right in the middle of it, if not well out in front as I've become accustomed to.

There is no way the regular season could be as bad as last year. Ugh. I'm excited about the season starting. It's really about time.

[Darin]

"His Sept OPS was .794 and that was by far his worst month. There wasn't another corner outfielder on the team that was going to give you even that."

To go along with his .213 average.

But for him to hit 40 homers in a season, he'll have to face and hit LH pitchers, which you might as well send me up there, because you'd probably get the same results.

I just have a hard time figuring out the direction the team is going. I couldn't imagine 2 or 3 years ago, them fielding a team with such average players as Kennedy, Duncan, and Encarnacion. Even Jim Edmonds is entering the average production stage of his career. I know Pujols is scary good, and Rolen's solid when/if healthy, but other than those two right there, the rest of that offense is not the standard Cardinal fair, and I have a hard time believing Rolen can 1) stay healthy or 2)keep from burning out if he does manage to stay on the field.

Again, not a horrible sign, considering the low cost, but Preston Wilson isn't going to really help this team.

[Aduncaroo]

they do have a lot of question marks, as does every other team in the central.

Houston - Pitching and will Lee really help a terrible offense enough?

Brewers - Do they have enough offense to give their pitching ANY run support?

Cubs - PITCHING. They could be well above average if Hill and Prior pitch well, they also could be terrible if Prior doesn't pitch, Hill doesn't do as projected, and Lilly and Marquis don't pan out.

Cincy - Can Harang and Arroyo pitch like last year and do they have enough offense?

Pirates - enough said

Cardinals - Need Wainright and Reyes to pitch very well. They need at least one of them to win 15 games and an era under 4. Without that, I doubt they are in the race at the end. Also, Rolen and Edmonds are always questionable as far as injury goes, and they are just getting older. Still the favorites though...

[Aduncaroo]

Oh, and I don't see Duncan hitting 40 bombs this year either. What I said was if he could maintain his pace from last year and get 500 ABs. He won't, probably on either. I think that 30 is possible though, probably ending up with 25-30 in 375-400 plate appearances.

[plh903]

"To go along with his .213 average."

And his .300 OBP, and .494 SLG. Nothing to write home about, but productive enough.

"But for him to hit 40 homers in a season, he'll have to face and hit LH pitchers, which you might as well send me up there, because you'd probably get the same results. "

YES. He probably won't do this. Although, I am willing to bet that P Dubs is a better signing then you in regards to a platoon mate.

"I just have a hard time figuring out the direction the team is going. I couldn't imagine 2 or 3 years ago, them fielding a team with such average players as Kennedy, Duncan, and Encarnacion."

If Duncan is average (.800 OPS or so) that wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Kennedy and Juan are defensive wizzes, and capable of handling the bat. This isn't the Yankees dude. You have to make value signings and assessment at some positions.

" Even Jim Edmonds is entering the average production stage of his career."

Why would you say this? Because he was injured all year and didn't hit lefties? He still posted a .947 OPS against right-handers (enter Juan and Wilson against lefties--the point) last year. Is it because he is coming off a career peak that is historically notable as in one of the greatest five years spans in CF, EVER? If he is healthy, he is very much above average out there for the next two years.

"Rolen's solid when/if healthy"

You have no idea how good Rolen is do you?

"but other than those two right there,"

More than most teams have at the corners

"the rest of that offense is not the standard Cardinal fair,"

Kennedy = Grudz, Eck = Eck, Juan < Walker, Molina = Molina, Edmonds = 2005 Edmonds (probably, which is terrific), and Duncan/Wilson = who knows?

"and I have a hard time believing Rolen can 1) stay healthy or 2)keep from burning out if he does manage to stay on the field."

Why? His ~.900 OPS while recovering from surgery last year? He didn't even lift weights until after Spring Training. His shoulder is actually load-bearing right now--so he is light-years ahead of where he was last year.

[plh903]

Adam -- I'd add for CHI that Lee, Soriano, and DeRosa are question marks to a certain extent.

Overall, that's a pretty fair assessment though, I think.

Hey, do you want to play fantasy this year? Darren and I are going to be in at least one league, maybe two at this point.

[StLknows]

Wilson's D is solid, but I would take Taguchi or Schumaker for D. I guess that we just want more depth on the bench. definitely don't see this as a problem. Duncan doesn't have a full season under his belt yet. This is good insurance. I would rather have Erstad, but we know what were getting with Preston.

[Darin]

plh903,

Regarding Rolen:

Look at his splits last year, he was signifcantly worse in the 2nd half. He didn't play in the 2nd half of '05, but in '04 his batting average took a pretty big hit as well in the second half.

Regarding Edmonds:

Edmonds has declined over the past 3 years. Now, I don't know about you, but at 37, I don't see him "bouncing back" and start to produce like it's 2003/2004. I didn't say he was well below average or anything of the such, only that he seems to be entering the downside of his career. Actually he's probably already entered it. I can't see how this isn't a fair statement.

Regarding Eckstein:

I believe that 2005 may have been his peak, and that you can expect 2006 type numbers for the next couple years. Though they are similar, he did have a good jump in power numbers in 2005, which I don't see him replicating.

Also for the record I said 2 or 3 years ago, meaning when Rentaria was playing SS and Rolen was healthy and Matheny was in his prime. Much better players (then) than what is there today.

In regards of Duncan:

I don't have blind faith that Duncan will improve his power to the extent that he's a 30 homer threat. Being that most platoon guys don't get enough ABs for that chance. And Duncan is surely a platoon guy. Btw, I'd make stellar defensive replacement in LF for the Cards, with my 5.2sec 40 and my little league arm (though I'm 27).

[Aduncaroo]

Phil, I am definately in on fantasy. Let me know when. Same cell number as usual, call Richard if you don't have it.

I would agree that DeRosa is a question mark...however, have you ever seen Theriot?
He is guarenteed to make the club and if you look at his stats in the time he was up last year, I hope they get him some quality playing time. He actually has an Eckstein like approach at the plate, I think he would be a MUCH better option to lead off and play 2nd, bat Sori 5th, and DeRosa be a "Super Sub."
Acutally, he would just be a sub, I dont expect for him to be fantastic. But think about it this way Phil. I don't know if there are a whole lot better places to hit in all of baseball. He is behind Soriano and in front of Lee and Ramirez. Even if he is an average hitter, which is probably a fair assessment, he could put up VERY solid numbers. We all know this, he will get pitches to hit.

Lee is kind of a question mark. You know he is going to hit, but his average is going to be anywhere from .280 to .330. I'll say probably about .310. There is no way in hell he doesn't hit 30 home runs, and I doubt seriously he has less than 110 RBI. So, lets say he goes .310, 37HR , 115RBI. I think batting 3rd in the lineup with Sori and DeRosa in front of him, and Ramirez, Jones, Floyd\Murton and Barrett gives him the best lineup that he has EVER hit in. I say those numbers are not really asking that much out of him, he could actually do better.

Sori is a bit of a question mark, but I don't worship him like most cubbies faithful. I am looking for him to have a .280 35 90 Season with 40 doubles and 30SB. OBP probably around .335ish...but that is probably the most of these stats that I am asking out of him. I think those numbers are also very possible, and he could do worse, but he also could do a lot better considering the park he hit in last year compared to the one he is hitting in this year.

[cardsrams82]

Rolen's 2nd half in 2006 was probably due to the fact that his shoulder was fatigued no? I mean how can you point this out as any inidcation of what he will do coming in one year removed from major shoulder surgery AND having one of the best offseason workouts, by his own statement, that he ever has.

Edmonds could very well return to 2005 form which would be a definitive improvement over last year, as long as he stays fairly healthy he's going to put up ~.900 OPS and play GG defense.

I'm sorry, but why do we need power number from our leadoff SS? I'm pretty sure as long as he gets on base and racks up the pitch count we'll be fine.

I'm confused to why Duncan has to IMPROVE his power to hit 30 HRs.....he didn't start playing until late in the season and hit 22, all he has to do is maintain his power level and he can hit 30+HR in 400ABs. I will venture to say Duncan will be, at worst, a decent defensive LF this year.

[plh903]

"Regarding Rolen:

Look at his splits last year, he was signifcantly worse in the 2nd half. He didn't play in the 2nd half of '05, but in '04 his batting average took a pretty big hit as well in the second half."

cardsrams82 got this one. His shoulder was fatigued, like I alluded to earlier, he wasn't ready for the season, eg, he wasn't even lifting weights before ST.

Also, his half/splits aren't predictive of talent level at all. Look at his BABIP in each of those years, it tells a story of luck and random fluctuation.

Furthermore, he is not "solid." He is Brooks Robinson with a career OPS+ that's 25 points higher.

"Regarding Edmonds:

Edmonds has declined over the past 3 years. Now, I don't know about you, but at 37, I don't see him "bouncing back" and start to produce like it's 2003/2004. I didn't say he was well below average or anything of the such, only that he seems to be entering the downside of his career. Actually he's probably already entered it. I can't see how this isn't a fair statement."

Once again: Edmonds gets unfairly treated because he HAD ONE OF THE GREATEST CF SEASONS OF ALL TIME, in 2004. He is well above average, and good for a .900 OPS at a premium glove position if he is not seeing double. "Decline phase" for elite players can mean "Very good."

"Regarding Eckstein:

I believe that 2005 may have been his peak, and that you can expect 2006 type numbers for the next couple years. Though they are similar, he did have a good jump in power numbers in 2005, which I don't see him replicating.

Also for the record I said 2 or 3 years ago, meaning when Rentaria was playing SS and Rolen was healthy and Matheny was in his prime. Much better players (then) than what is there today."

Another one of the Cardinals woes, his BABIP was AWFUL in the second half, but more importantly he was the same player he was in 2005 (when he led all NL SS in Win Shares) until his concussion or whatever it was in June. The oblique and the DL stint basically nailed the coffin shut.

Renteria's Warp3 was 4.1 in 2004, Eckstein's was 6.6 in 2005. He played for 1/4th of the money. There is a reason that MGL recommended the signing--it was a GREAT one. We'll see if he bounces back healthy this year.

I am not talking about Rolen again here, it's all been said. But, Matheny and Yadi are negligible. Pluses with the glove, while not a lock to hit at replacement level. Yadi has a little more value here because he has the mch better arm, basically meaning that he will get many more baserunner kills than Matheny and actually have game-changing/quantifiable effect behind the plate.

"In regards of Duncan:

I don't have blind faith that Duncan will improve his power to the extent that he's a 30 homer threat. Being that most platoon guys don't get enough ABs for that chance. And Duncan is surely a platoon guy. Btw, I'd make stellar defensive replacement in LF for the Cards, with my 5.2sec 40 and my little league arm (though I'm 27)."

How many AB's do left-handed platoon guys get? 400? 450? How many did I say he should get?

He had 22 HR's in 280 AB's last year. Maybe he made strides, maybe it was a fluke, maybe a little of both. But, 30 HR's isn't too unreasonable, I have very little expectations for him, but I won't be shocked if he performs, with Wilson mitigating his shortcomings.

[Aduncaroo]

plh and friends, you are making my point all along. I said above that if he maintains his pace from last year, add 125 ABs or so, and you have 30 to 35 homers. He may not, but thats all I was saying. And adding 123ABs would still only put him around 400. He definitely earned the ABs, but his defense really makes it hard to want to play him all the time, being that its been the Cards MO for years now.

Who above said he will be at least a league average LF defensively next year? Do you really believe that???? Why, because he is working on it in the offseason? So is every other bad defensive outfielder, but they are still going to be bad. I'm not saying he won't improve, but it will take about two seasons of a lot of baseballs being hit at him for him to have a chance at becoming average. He is literally the worst I have EVER seen in the field. I don't think he has a throwing problem, but you might as well blind fold the guy and have him try to catch the fly balls.

[Aduncaroo]

Phil,

Tell me what you think of my expectations of Sori and DLee above. I am curious to see if you think I am expecting too much of them.
I would love to believe that Dlee could have another 05 and Sori another 06, but I'm not setting myself up for failure. Still, to me at least, I don't think the numbers above are unreasonable, especially with Sori playing in Wrigley. If any of the numbers are high, it would have to be 30sb I guess. I just want to make sure I'm not being a naive cubs fan about it, so I would appreciate a knowledgeable Cards fans prospective. Anyone else is welcome as well....

[hood]

I think everyone is sleeping on the Pirates this year.I don't like them to win the division I believe the Cards are the best team in the weakest division but I believe the Bucs can make it interesting. I don't know what kinda 3B are still available but I think that might be all they need. This would move Bautista to the super utility role he can thrive in and move Sanchez to 2B. I'm sorry they need a RHSP that can give them quality innings. I don't know if Chacon is the guy but maybe they can sign Chan Ho Park or Trachsel real cheap. Trachsel did win 15 games last year. I thought Feliz or Helms would have been perfect fits for them. Maybe Gordon wins the has a great spring and beats out Teahan in K.C. then Littlefield can give up a couple quality minor league pitchers and pick up Teahan. But I think they have alot less question marks than any other team in the central.They lost the most 1 run games last year from a lack of offense and picked up a .280/30/100 potential guy.

[Aduncaroo]

They have more question marks on offense than anyone besides MAYBE Cindy and the Brewers. They have more pitching question marks than anyone besides...well, no one. They also lost their best reliever as well. They may have gotten a ".280/30/100 potential guy," but they need an ace on the pitching staff, a couple of quality relievers, a closer, more offense, and more defense. They are not going to compete.

[plh903]

***I don't know if there are a whole lot better places to hit in all of baseball.***

I’ll just get this out of the way, because it’s kind of a theme: Here's the thing. It doesn't really matter that Wrigley is a great place to hit, because in the summer when the wind is blowing out towards those short alleys, it's not like they turn on some fans and move the fences back when the visiting team is up. So really, while those numbers may help winning awards--they don't necessarily help win ballgames. Unless you are building a team that plays towards the strengths/weaknesses of the park. It’s not like the Rockies are trying to find places to hang all of their pennants.

Now, Soriano being an extreme fly-ball hitter will benefit more than the average player I think, in turn, the Cubs will benefit. However, they spent $60M on two pitchers that pitch like they are playing their homegames at Yellowstone. The Cubs would be so lucky if this was a push, or more simply that Soriano was able to cancel out the effect of Lilly and Marquis, much moreso Marquis obviously.

***I would agree that DeRosa is a question mark...however, have you ever seen Theriot?***

He was phenomenal last year, but his career MiLB OPS is .692. That’s not good. (You can say many of these same things about Duncan, he outperformed his MiLB numbers by quite a bit last year, not in as dramatic fashion as Theriot, but substantially) I hear that he was trying to swith-hit then, so maybe he is a little better than that, but that is a HUGE sample size. Much more than the 150 AB’s he got last year. I don’t know, Bo Hart is not platooning with Adam Kennedy this year. Why? Because he is not a Major Leaguer like he looked like for half a season. If I were Cub fans I would be excited if Theriot was a good MI bench option, but I can’t imagine that he is a starter in the Bigs. Maybe I’m wrong.

DeRosa is also coming off a career year in which the Cubs gave him a big ol’ contract. You are also working of a large sample size that says he isn’t the hitter he was last year, or even a regular starter, (sample size, sample size, sample size) this seems like a favorite thing to do with Jim Hendry. The kind of thing you or I might do if we had a bunch of money and were going to sign some players. He is a good player, but you are right in thinking that he is best served as a super sub. Problem is, the Cubs lineup already mashes lefties.

***Lee is kind of a question mark. You know he is going to hit, but his average is going to be anywhere from .280 to .330. I'll say probably about .310. There is no way in hell he doesn't hit 30 home runs, and I doubt seriously he has less than 110 RBI. So, lets say he goes .310, 37HR , 115RBI. I think batting 3rd in the lineup with Sori and DeRosa in front of him, and Ramirez, Jones, Floyd\Murton and Barrett gives him the best lineup that he has EVER hit in.***

Reasonable. Lee is an enigma, coming off injury, coming off a monster year. Before this he was a good 1B, not elite, with top of the line D. I think that something in between is reasonable, like you’ve suggested. Maybe a .930 OPS or something. His career is .880 I think, so that’s some gain consolidation. He’d be better off hitting 4th or 5th though, with possibly Sori in the three hole. I would actually bat Murton leadoff, and then Barrett second maybe, depending if he is the career peak hitter he was last year, or something more in line with the rest of his career (sound familiar?).

***Sori is a bit of a question mark, but I don't worship him like most cubbies faithful. I am looking for him to have a .280 35 90 Season with 40 doubles and 30SB. OBP probably around .335ish...but that is probably the most of these stats that I am asking out of him. I think those numbers are also very possible, and he could do worse, but he also could do a lot better considering the park he hit in last year compared to the one he is hitting in this year.***

I addressed the second part of this in the first part of my post. This is also reasonable, but Soriano is scary as well as he hasn’t established himself as premier and is getting paid as such. He has a career OPS+ of 115, last year it was 132. (100 = average, Pujols – 171, Rolen – 130, Edmonds – 137, Kennedy – 91, Duncan – 140, Encarnacion – 96, etc. etc.) He can have some pretty scary seasons (see: 2005 Texas, .309 OBP), but he should be real good this year. His counting stats will make him look better than he is however. I am not knocking Sori, he will be very good I believe, I was excited when I heard the Cards were talking to him this offseason. But, I am sure they chuckled and walked away once they heard sums of $136 million being tossed around. You'll learn to hate, hate, hate that contract before 2014 I bet.

In fact here is my main knock on the Cubs, here are their starting 8 career OPS+ and then their peak –“Career/Peak” (a stat from baseball-reference that is completely adjusted for park, league and total context—so you can actually COMPARE players)

Soriano – 115/132
DeRosa – 90/106
Lee – 123/177
Ramirez – 109/137
Murton – 111/135 (2005 in 140 AB’s, 103 last year)
Jones – 101/125
Izturis – 68/88
Barrett – 91/121

So, many of those guys are rightfully expected to outperform their career averages, I’m certainly not suggesting that they won’t. But, it rarely works in the fashion that everyone does, at least in a perfect storm sense. Sample size, sample size. In classic Cubs fashion, it seems like management chooses to ignore true talent levels and hope that peaks are sustainable. Not that Soriano and DeRosa aren’t good additions, or that Ramirez and Lee aren’t much better than their career averages suggest. BUT, it’s very, very funny how underwhelming those four COULD be (coming off injury, walk years, and peaks) for the paltry sum of $300 million (!) total.

[Aduncaroo]

I agree with what you said, at least mostly. One thing I wanted to point out is that Barrett did not have a fluke year last year at all, the guy can rake for a catcher. Didn't he win the silver slugger two years ago? His game calling skills could be better though, and he is probably no better than average defensively.
DeRosa will be better than his carrer averages, including OPS+. Most of the players that Hendry signs will be, because they are around the age when players hit their prime. You have to take that into consideration. Guys like DeRosa, Barrett, Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, and hell, even Jones are all going to be better in their "prime" years than their career averages would suggest. I understand what you are saying, but averages aren't always fair. Either are numbers from one year, so don't think I'm making that point. It would be alright with me if none of them hit their peak, as long as they are solid and well above career averages.
Teriot, as long as he plays somewhat how he did last year, could possibly start at 2nd base for me. It would be like Eck for you. You don't need power numbers at his position, you need solid at bats and a good OBP, along with solid to very good defense. I think he could possibly do all of those, but they would have to take a chance on him because there is not enough of a sample size to know.

OH, this one is important.

"***I don't know if there are a whole lot better places to hit in all of baseball.***"

I didn't mean the park, I meant where he hits in the lineup and who hits around him. Although Wrigley is a great place to hit, but I wasn't making that point bc I too know that the other team gets to take their ABs as well.

What I was saying is, DeRosa hits behind Sori and in front of Lee, Ramirez, Jones, Floyd\Murton, Barrett, not necessarily in that order. It would be even better if they had a great OBP lead off guy in front of him, and the Lee, Ramirez, Sori combo after him. Oh well, for now, it is what it is. I am suprised that you would bat Sori 3rd......To me, lets say Theriot does end up being an Eckstien type of player. My lineup would be:

1. Theriot
2. Murton
3. Lee
4. Ramirez
5. Soriano
6. Jones
7. Barrett
8. Izturis***
9. Pitcher***

***I would seriously consider if the pitcher is Zambrano, hitting him 8th. Izturis bats about as well as my wife would. He better be playing GG Defense this year....

Anyway, the plus is that there is still Floyd coming off the bench. The negative is that is a VERY right handed lineup. There isn't really a lot I can say about that, they did it to themselves. I don't know if balancing that out at the cost of benching Murton is worth it to me.

[plh903]

***I agree with what you said, at least mostly. One thing I wanted to point out is that Barrett did not have a fluke year last year at all, the guy can rake for a catcher. Didn't he win the silver slugger two years ago? His game calling skills could be better though, and he is probably no better than average defensively.***

Barrett is an excellent hitting catcher and his defense leaves something to be desired. His bad more than makes up for that however. You're right, he did when the SS in 2005 (although that will go to McCann for the foreseeable future now), I am just pointing out that is likely his peak and he could be more of the hitter he was in Montreal after this point, or he could have a few more peak years, or he could have found the Fountain of Youth and he will actually IMPROVE while he makes it into his 30s.

It's established that players have their peaks from 27-30 and then begin a decline. Does this mean that all players are like this? No, of course not, just that it is the more likely scenario. Hendry seems to like to "go all in" against that hand, when the research and numbers speak for themselves.

It is as likely that Barrett/Ramirez/Lee/Soriano all hit peakish seasons as it is that they all under-perform their three-year averages and have average seasons, or even BELOW average seasons (which of those numbers I listed, the career averages -- many of which are underwhelming -- remember that HALF of their careers these players have been UNDERPERFORMING those umbers... this should be a scary proposition).

The end result is that the Cubs will have an above average offense probably, which of course is a nice change of pace from "the worst offense ever" like last year. I know you don't expect Murderer's Row, but it may be as likely to be elite as it is to downright BAD. Which is weird to say given all of the talent, but that those players have some established levels of serious MEDIOCRITY, and yes, their entire body of work MUST be considered when predicting future performance.

Also, their is not a whole lot of any research that suggests that players see better pitches to hit depending on the lineup around them. Maybe are more productive with with better OBP guys in front of them (which is an area, one thats *KINDA IMPORTANT* that the Cubs are still lacking in depsite spending all that dough) or score more runs with high OPS guys behind them, but there is not a real quantifiable effect on DeRosa in terms of how pitchers approach him just because Lee/ARam are behind him now. For much of his career DeRosa has been a part time player, and if anything he will regress considering that 1. PEAK SEASON, and 2. that he has been placed in favorable matchups in his entire career, basically he'll have to hit everyone now.

So, to reiterate, I think that Ramirez and Barrett are the most likely to welll outperform their career averages because they have established serious three year trends in this direction and they are on the right side of thirty, I think (although half the years they have played Major League baseball, they haven't even PERFORMED AT THEM), Soriano and Lee are a step down from that--I'd say an .880 and .930 OPS are most likely, I am pretty sure that some of the projection systems agree here--and that DeRosa and Theriot are UNLIKELY to hit their career averages, Izturis just fucking sucks and you probably know what you are getting out of Jones, although I would say he might underperform his 2006 a little.

So, much much better than the crap that was trotted out last year, and the sum total comes in at above average I would bet. But it would take a real perfect storm of sorts to be Murderer's Row or even the 2004 Cardinals for that matter (where Edmonds, Rolen, Pujols had peaks, well it was a normal year for Pujols, in the same year: 173, 160, 175 OPS+'s -- Lee is the only one in the Cubs lineup to even sniff numbers like these, peak or not).

I know you aren't saying that they'll will be, I am just trying to further explain MY TAKE on the Cubs this year.

I actually think the Cubs and Cards will have similar offenses in result, and if Lilly, Hill, Carp, Z, Wainwright, and Reyes do what they are supposed to this year, it could be interesting.

Someone needs to tell Hill and Zambrano to stop putting a dude on base every other inning. For a team that's offense hates to walk as much as it does the pitcher's give 'em away like they are tickets to Blue Man Group.

[plh903]

To explain why I think Soriano should hit third, is that 3-hole hitters see about 167 more men on base over the course of the year, and he is quicker than Ramirez. You could flip Sori and Lee, I just think that Soriano will be helped a bit by the park and you want him running AHEAD of Ramirez, not behind him. Although, essentially he should not try to steal one base in Wrigley next year. He will probably be hurting more than he is helping, in that park, where he would have to steal at like an 82% sucess rate for it to really change/effect the offense. All his fly ball Homers and Strikeouts will be nice in the three hole because he won't ground into too many DPs and he won't be hitting as many meaningless Solo jacks.

He'll hit 1st and it won't matter that much, that's just what I would do.

I like the Floyd signing for you guys as long as he's used appropriately (like it actually sounds like he will) and doesn't really dig into Murt's PT that much.

Before that, Marquis might have been the best PH option of the bench.

The Cubs should just give up on defense, and play Soriano at SS. Yep, you heard that right, you'd basically be replacing Izruris with Cliff Floyd. He'd be real bad, but the offense might be worth it. Hopefully Molina, by the hand of god hits better than Cesar this year.

[plh903]

"Barrett is an excellent hitting catcher and his defense leaves something to be desired. His bad more than makes up for that however. You're right, he did when the SS in 2005"

This is one of the dumbest things I have ever typed. I should have pasted that into Word or something. It should read: "His baT more than makes up for that. You're right in 2005 he did wIn the SS."

I'm SMRT.

[Aduncaroo]

Thats funny. I think it will be a good race to see who has the worst hitting season, Izturis or Molina. Izturis is obviously the favorite, but damn, they are both horrendous. The second that he has his 3rd error they should either trade or just bring someone up from the minors....I don't even care who it is. It would be nice to get a great defender that is an average hitter to play SS. The sad thing is, I think that they might actually believe that about Izturis. He probably wouldn't get promoted out of A ball if he were to start there today.
I think that Zambrano will walk WAY fewer hitters this year, as long as they compete. He gets to a point where he doesn't care...I'd say about the 10 games out mark. He will do better though.
Hill will do WAY better on that stat as well. He was nervous last year and always trying to make the perfect pitch. That will get better. If you look at his numbers the last time he got called up last year, his walk rate was very low and his K rate was great. I bet his BB\K rate was terrific, but I don't have the numbers. Anyway, it will be MUCH better than his averages suggest. Believe it or not, I don't think the walks really hurt Zambrano that much, but I agree and would LOVE to know what his ERA would have been had he walked even the league average amount of hitters.

[plh903]

Hill actually walked more batters per 9 innings in the Minors than he did last year. But, if he strikes guys out at the rate he did in lower levels he will be able to get away with it like Zambrano. But, if they don't make some strides there it will catch up to them a little bit. Not to the extent that they are not an ace and a good #3, but they could help themselves here.

Judging by FIP which is "FIP (Link)
Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger." A VERY cool stat. Z has consistently overachieving because of this walk rate. By as much as .50 to .75 ERA over the last three years. He needs to lower that rate, he is getting lucky to an extent.

On the flipside, Kip Wells FIP the last two years has been -1.50 to -2.24, which means he has been consistentlt getting ver unlucky and is underachieving.

I would bet that Jim Hendry doesn't know, or flat-out ignores what FIP is. Now, the Cardinals employed MGL, who is Tango's co-author and perhaps mentor (the guy that invented FIP, and a hundred other statistical breakthroughs) and these reasons along with Dave Duncan are why they always seem to sprinkle magic dust on pitchers and why Cubs fans can't stand it.