Adam Dunn's 2008 Option

This time of year we hear a lot about guys entering their walk years or guys with questionable team options for 2008.  Is Adam Dunn one such player?

The Reds have a $13MM option on him for '08.  Obviously, they'll take the wait and see approach after Dunn slipped to .234/.365/.490 last year.  PECOTA thinks he'll bounce all the way back to .267/.390/.574 this season.

For '08, they have him hitting .267/.398/.581, perhaps his peak season at age 28.  He could be worth $18MM according to BP's projection system.  Unless Dunn completely flops this season, the option should be exercised.  Even if he reaches the midpoint of his projection and '06 performance, it's probably a smart move.  How many teams wouldn't sign Dunn for one year and $13MM?

As far as Reds of the future, Jay Bruce will probably end up in right and Joey Votto at first.  That still leaves room for Dunn and his 40+ HRs in left.

Comments

[Ankur]

Seems like a no brainer to me.

[Slayer]

Indeed. That type of power and OBP makes up for any deficiency he has on D or with K's.

[plh903]

Outs are outs. What does BP call it, The Three True outcomes? Homer, K, BB. Voros McCracken's bastard child. I don't know, Dunn is good, the Ks just aren't really a deficiency, period. His defense, on the other hand, is.

Hopefully someone tells (or doesn't, maybe the Cards can pick him up Duncan-Edmonds-Dunn, NICE. Double to the gap!) idiot Reds fans and Wayne Krivsky that Dunn is a good player before he gets shipped off for a barrel of middle relievers.

[JayTheRed]

plh903
Dunn is not going anywhere first off. 2nd off I am so sick and tired of people bashing Krisky's one out of maybe 100 bad transactions and Bray and Majeski still might turn out to be ok. Sure the deal still looks bad at this point but seriously I am a Reds fan and have been for 20 years now and I like having Dunn on the Reds I am a fan that will be pissed if we get rid of him. Cincy has enough middle relievers now and Krivsky knows that too. I agree with the top post for this message. Dunn is going to have a much improved year this year offensively and even if he cuts his errors down by owe lets say 5 that would be a huge improvement. He is quoted to saying that he is going to do everything he can to improve his defensive game and I think he will.

[plh903]

You mean there are some Reds fans that like Dunn?

[/sarcasm]

I love Adam Dunn, but those 5 errors, which are meaningless may or may not go very far into helping him make up the 12-20 runs that pbp systems say he is costing over the course of the year, with the glove.

If I really thought that Dunn was going to get traded for a couple of rag-arms then you would be right in correcting me. But, I didn't.

Anyway, like I said in my first post "Dunn is good" you don't have to convince me.

PS: that trade was absurd, and everyone should make fun of it whenever they can.

[cman88844]

Just for all of you out there on the East and West Coast's, Dunn reported to camp at least 30-40 pounds lighter this year. We will see if that helps him in the outfield and to pick up a little bat speed. He looks great.

[ProjectMayhem]

Rumor still out there that a Dunn for Penny deal is quietly being talked about by the Reds and Dodgers... Makes sense for both sides.

[schellis]

How does that make any sense for the Reds? Give up the corner stone of the offense for a pitcer that has never really lived up to his potential and has only one 200 inning season.

Dunn is a monster player and could possibly be one of the top five offensive players in the NL this year.

Penny was barely good enough to stay in the Dodgers rotation last year.

[schellis]

Also its not like the Reds are running out rotations where Jimmy Haynes is the staff ace any more.

They have starting pitching espeically with Bailey coming.

[wmk51]

I would KILL to have Dunn on the Cardinals....he would be a good fit.

I think the Reds are kind of forced to take 13 mill option because if they dont, there will be teams lined up till Guatemala for his services.

The Cardinals are going to have alot of money to spend next year (If they don't I will be mad at ownership for the first time ever) because they are going to sell out almost every game this year and make a killing.

Dunn would easily be within price range, I forsee the Cards dropping up to 12-15 mill for a big bat next year, and maybe 8-12 mill on an arm (depending on if we even need it)

Being thrifty this off season will pay dividends for Redbird Nation, and one more playoff/world series birth might be all it takes to bump the salary from $97 million up to $120