Zambrano Close To Deal With Cubs
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Cubs and Carlos Zambrano are putting the finishing touches on a five-year, $80MM deal. Zambrano's 2007 contract would be erased by it, making him a Cub through 2011.
It's not quite the San Diego discount, but the Cubs have been signing some below-market deals lately. I guess there's something about Wrigley Field and Cubs fans.
Surprisingly, PECOTA would only give Zambrano about $52MM over the next five seasons. I wondered if the trends in Zambrano's peripherals didn't sit well with our favorite personified projection system, but it's actually a workload concern. BP's system sees 2007 as the last 200 inning season of his career, noticing shades of Mark Gubicza.
80 million bucks and he can re-up at 30. Thats pretty sweet. If its that cheap of a deal it should be an april fools joke, then he tells Hendry tomorrow that he's beat.
Posted by: ArodSucksAtLife | April 01, 2007 at 10:01 PM
Once again PECOTA shows its dollar values are absolutely worthless. When Gil Meche signs 5/55 and Washburn 4/39, then Zambrano is worth 5/52? Okay.
Posted by: DentalPlan | April 01, 2007 at 11:11 PM
Even thougn Zambrono is great, he does go against the curb, and his the workload he has endured does make u wonder if later on in his career hey may experience some trouble. I really really could see his career taking a path like bartolo colon's, but maybe zambrono is the exception will will be exceptional for the rest of his career. I admit the deal is a favorable one for the cubs, but caution has to be brought into the question.
Posted by: bravesbeast | April 01, 2007 at 11:18 PM
I wouldn't call it worthless, until we see what happens over the next five years.
Posted by: RotoAuthority | April 02, 2007 at 01:40 AM
and dental plan, those contracts for meche and washburn were what they got in reality, not their PECOTA measurements, i bet their PECOTA measurements would seem a lot more reasonable
Posted by: bravesbeast | April 02, 2007 at 02:12 AM
What is the point of PECOTA dollar values if they're totally unreasonable and don't give any kind of accuracy and sensibility when it comes to reality? If a GM followed PECOTA values, they wouldn't sign a single free agent and they'd probably have to trade some guys before they hit their arbitration years. They should footnote PECOTA - "We're talking 2003 prices."
I mean, I can say gas *should* be $1.60 a gallon, but that's not helpful when we're talking about reality and not fantasy.
Posted by: DentalPlan | April 02, 2007 at 05:34 AM
Maybe it's just me but I thought it was a given that there was some inflation factor to the dollar values. That when they matched you got a great deal and when they were lower you had to overpay (mostly because of market value).
Posted by: Thrillhouse26 | April 02, 2007 at 05:44 AM
DentalPlan
What exactly is your point?We should never reference what a player is truly deserved? PECOTA isn't meant to tell you what they will sign, its what they are worth. You can make your own judgements on what they will get payed based on inflation and other factors, PECOTA is saying what they should get payed.
Posted by: Ripwa | April 02, 2007 at 09:59 AM
I have a more pertinent question: What exactly is the point of posting PECOTA dollar values when they have no relation to the real world? PECOTA doesn't tell what they are worth because they ignore the values that have already been established in the system. They'd be just as well off using, I don't jellybeans. Roy Halladay is worth 20 jellybeans. Miguel Cabrera is worth 40 jellybeans.
Once again, what is the point of saying what someone "should" get paid? It's totally arbitrary.
Posted by: DentalPlan | April 02, 2007 at 08:21 PM