Livan Hernandez Close To Deal With Mets?

It could also just be a precursor to trading for Santana, and having a rotation of:
Hernandez
Hernandez
Maine
Perez
Santana
...it would fortify the rotation, and would also allow orlando hernandez to slip into the bullpen if necessary

It better be for a bullpen coach position, because if Omar seriously thinks this kind of signing would make the Mets better than an 85 win team, he is dead wrong.

If this is a sign NYM is out of the Johan contest, they better hope F-Mart pans out. If he doesn't the fans will never forget about the "what if".

"It better be for a bullpen coach position, because if Omar seriously thinks this kind of signing would make the Mets better than an 85 win team, he is dead wrong."

Livan is a work horse. The difference between him and Tom Glavine is negligable.

Even if we play the same, it took a hisotric collapse for them not to makethe playoffs. Stick to ur own team. The Mets are FINE with this deal. I'd LOVE to sign Livan.

oops i ment santana sorry just got out of work ..

Actually I think it could be a precursor to a Santana trade, it makes Pelfry available. If the trade really is Church, Gomez or F-Mart, Humber, Pelfry, and one more pitcher then the Mets will clearly have the superior package and frankly won't give up anything they can't afford to lose.

So a rotation of:
Santana
Maine
Perez
Martinez
L Hernandez
with El Duque giving rest to Martinez and you have a potentially solid rotation.

Actually Maine doesn't hit arb until next year which means 4 years until FA. Perez on the other hand I believe will be a FA next year

Thank you very much .

Good point !!

But name a time that the mets went up against the yanks and got who the yankee wanted to sign ? i dont count beltran neither because he still wnt back to the yankees with a discounted offer and they said No.

So i am not optimistic about them going after Johan and going against the yanks or any other team to get him . They need to get him now while the getting is good ..

Good Question Meddler . Really why is that ?

No, the team would still clearly be better with Johan, at least for 2008. Adding Livan makes the short-term usefulness of Pelfrey, Mulvey, and Humber negligible.

Still, odds are with Livan this would be by far the best rotation the Mets have had since 2005, Pedro's last healthy season.

I believe that by signing livan hernandez the mets won't pursue Santana, if a trade does happen send F-mart,church,pelfrey,gomes,etc the mets would den look for an outfielder to replace church, if or when the mets do sign or trade for an outfielder only den can us mets fans assume that we are sending santana to shea. I believe the mets pulled back already and won't land santana if the do sign L. Hernandez.

I agree themetros, but if the Mets can manage to get Santana and keep either Gomez or Martinez and Pelfrey or Guerra plus either Humber or Mulvey, I still do the deal. If that's not possible, I agree, lets just go to war and hope we get to enjoy watching Gomez steal 60 bases and Martinez hit 35 HR a few years from now.

"oops i ment santana sorry just got out of work .. "

just finishing an all nighter at mickey D's?

Seriously, screw Santana. You are only getting one year of value out of him because after that his salary will be right on par with his performance. I would rather wait and see what F-Mart,Guerra, and Gomez can become. I will take those chances and then throw big money at the next big time free agent pitcher who hits the market.

The metros, I dont like how people make it sound as if we have exclusive negotiating rights with Johan, it is more like you have to pretty much give him what he wants or he will veto a deal and/or walk to free agency. Its not like he is signing any hometown discounts.

Agreed. I think the NL East, just like last year, comes down to whether a team can win 90 games. The Phillies are a solid team, but they haven't changed all that much in the last three seasons, and the only player who projects to see significant possible improvement is Hamels. They'll be an 88,89 win type team once again. If the Mets or Braves can breach that mark, they'll likely take the division. With Livan, a full season of Pedro, and the natural improvements of Maine and Perez as they grow, seeing the Mets win 90 games is far from inconceivable. Its certainly more likely they win 90 than 80.

I was thinking of clarifying what you meant for dj, but I wasn't positive I was right so I figured I'd just ley you. Maybe Santana would be a 20-25 game winner, but that wouldn't make him worth 20-25 win shares.

nrmax, I hear what you're saying, but regardless, you are trading those players and you are the only team that gets to negotiate with him. Were he to reach FA, there would be at least four or five teams making big bids for his service. Its not all that different from the Daisuke situation, except for the fact that Santana is an established MLB player and instead of a posting fee your paying with prospects. Whether its a good idea is another question, and I'd have to say, if we get Livan on a decent deal, I'm with both you and themetros

Livan Hernandez is no where near Johan Santana as a pitcher! The Mets signing him is much more of a defensive move in the event Martinez and El Duque break down - again. The whole Mets organization seems to understand that they need a healthy reliable top of rotation pitcher - like Pedro used to be. The Mets will remain in hot pursuit of Santana simply because they need him badly and because healthy,two time Cy Young winners in their prime rarely become available.

Perhaps. THT had Santana at 18 WS last year and Livan at 10.

However, lets not forget how much more forgiving Shea is to flyball pitchers than Chase.

The K rate and WHIP is a bit scary. A big difference I see between Livan and Ortiz though is that Ortiz's BB rates also shot way up, in fact it happened in 2003. Everything seemed to gradually fall off for him after that.

Kyle Lohse? Yikes! Without Santana the Mets finish 3rd in the NL East.

JimCrikket...can you clue me in on how the third place Braves and the Phillies, who have no back-end of the rotation, managed to get appreciably better? You seem to be all knowing, so perhaps you could enlighten me.

I love how the Mets are done if they fail to get Santana. I must have missed where the Red Sox were planted into the NL East. With or whithout Santana, it is a three team race in the NL East.

Obviously Johan significantly improves their chances, but c'mon. The Mets are a approximately a 90 win team as things stand right now and that is with a conservative projection on Pedro, who is looking great according to Will Carroll.

If the Mets can get league average innings to replace Glavine, then Pedro is all gravy compared to who was usurping starts last year.

I do not think it is all that unreasonable.

It really depends on what the Mets are giving up, no? Santana is tremendously valuable, but the Twins are selling one year under market and then chance for the Mets to negotiate a market rate contract.

I just think that the Mets as currently set up can contend which tells me they should not forgo 2010, 2011, and 2012 to contend in 2008 and 2009.

Alou is brittle, so it is nice to have some outfield depth. You always need an extra starter or two, so Pelfrey, Humber, and Mulvey have value when you look at alternatives like Park and Lawrence. The young guys will give them a more a chance.

When factor in the big picture, I do not think the difference is wins is as large as people expect in 2008 and 2009 much less beyond that.

Also, the Phillies got Lidge which allowed them to move Myers back into the rotation, which is a good thing. But they lost Rowand's career year numbers and Lohse, while historically bad, was a big boon for them last year.

They do not even have that. Their back end is a horror.

I just think that Omar needs to stand pat on his offer because the Mets are not in as bad of shape as people make them out to be.

The Braves get a full year of Tex, but Andruw was still decently valuable. Kotsay helps close the gap in what they lost over their current alternatives, but I do not see them taking a huge jump forward. Glavine helps fortify the rotation, but they are still the team that need to do the most since they were a third place team. Did they actually do enough?

I just think people are overblowing things. Who would not be BETTER with Johan. Right. Everyone would be. So it stands to reason that he would increase the Mets chances of winning, but there is more than one way to improve this club.

I agree it is a chance, but doesn't having Pelfrey, Humber, and Mulvey mitigate the risk a bit? I am also on board with them picking up Garcia and stashing him in their back pocket.

It is also a risk trading all your big league ready kids that are needed to back up your team and signing a pitcher to a contract that runs six years after 2008.

Risks are everywhere and you have to find levels in which each is tolerable. There are deals that I think work for the Mets that allow them to land Santana and there are deals that I think carry too much risk for the Mets.

Lohse is obviously always a hair away from getting from getting DFA'd at all times (as you know), but he still has an arm and has some upside. Please note that I am not suggesting it is large upside, but upside nonetheless in regards to his past performance.

I do not think it is slam dunk Santana gets trade at this point because I think Smith overplayed his hand and the Red Sox and Yankees seem like they want out.

I agree with the sentiment that some have they would both rather sit on the sidelines and go with what they have, but they do not want each other to have him. Take them out, who is in? I guess the Angels or Dodgers could swoop in and surprise teams are always lurking in deals like this if he becomes cheap enough, but once the season starts,I think Johan will prefer to wait to sign any contract until after the season.

He may get traded mid-year, but why would he sign then when he can wait a few months and pick his team?

I am not saying the Mets will get him, but he might be out there. Pitchers and catchers report in three weeks, so there is not all that much time to go.

As for Minaya, I think he is OK no matter what happens in 2008. Willie is a different story. He is unequivocally on the hot seat.

"It's the idea of Lohse as a back up plan that I just can't accept."

When you compare Lohse to Santana, of course not, but that is not the correct context to judge this by. However, when you look at Lohse added to Pedro, Ollie, and Maine against 2007, it does not look at bad.

You need to compare 2008 to 2007 and not 2008 to a fictitious team. The only thing that should be evaluated is whether or not the 2007 opening day Mets are better than the 2008 opening day Mets.

I would say yes, however marginally some think. We are still talking about a team that missed the playoffs by one game and got 84 games from Alou. If he gives 100 that is a step up. There are areas for this team as currently constructed to improve as well.

Ah, well you are from Minny so you are not 'privileged' like me to get exposed to him frequently. Matthews is a flat out nuts. He writes cynical articles against the Mets and always has. 2006 and 2007 was spent by him writing drivel.

Again, the sky is not falling for me.

You hit the nail on the head though, no articles on how the Yankees need Santana? Mussina/Hughes/Joba in the rotation with Kennedy in the wings? I love all those young guys, but to expect them to provide 30 starts and 190 innings is crazy.

The bullpen will have Joba or Kennedy, but outside of them and Mariano, I see problems. LaTroy is decent and Olendorf is an x-factor, but they have holes.

One of the worst defenses in the league and too many players that are declining. And yet, the only articles about how the Mets are dead in the water w/o Johan while ignoring the team in the Bronx has monster issues.

ZiPS is called for Joba to have 24 starts and a 4.48 ERA (or something like that). That may be unfathomable for Yankee fans after watching him dominate out of the pen, but starting is a different beast. He will have issues and will not even be allowed to get close to 200 innings.

For them, I actually like the idea of starting either Kennedy or Joba in the bullpen and then having them swap rolls midway to keep their innings manageable while still keeping them fresh.

Either way, I think Yankee fans are not fully prepared to accept growing pains and assume all three will destroy from day #1. The Yankees cannot come close to the BoSox with that much pitching youth. Long term, I love the direction though, but 2008 is going to be more bumpy for them than many believe.

Good stuff guys.

Metros, I think the thing you're neglecting is that the Mets have no ace. Pedro MIGHT be that, but that is a huge question mark at this point. Santana's the best pitcher in baseball. Imagine what he could do in the JV league and in that park with that offense. It could seriously be a HISTORIC year. We're talking 25 wins, ERA of around 2.00, easily over 300 K's pitching to pitchers, etc. I think if you're the Mets, you gotta go for that, especially if you're trading a whole bunch of good prospects, but unknowns. And for the record, I think the Mets' window is now. Reyes/Wright are young, but your 2b is ancient (and that contract is awful; he will break down-we saw it in MN), Delgado is about done at 1b, and Beltran isn't getting any younger. Plus Pedro only has a couple good years left (you hope) and the bullpen's not exactly young. I don't think the window is all that long overall.

Agreed on the Yanks; there are going to be some serious growing pains this year that they're not ready for. No way will they contend with the Sox rotation-wise. Frankly, I'll be surprised if the Yanks make the playoffs this year.

i believe the mets will be in the best position if they sign hernandez, forget about about santana until they're completely out of options, and let humber and pelfrey get some experience in the bullpen. theyll do jsut fine with pedro, maine, perez, and the hernandez's as their roation. pedro looked great in his starts last season, maine and perez are still growing into their shells, and if the brothers can stay healthy there's no reason why the mets can win 90-100 games next season

It is funny how people dont seem to realize that the teams that probably had the 3 best rotations in the NL West last year didnt make the playoffs. The Dbacks got solid pitching, but San Diego and LA had great staffs while SF had Cain and Lincecum and Zito leading their staff. The D backs won the division with Webb, Davis, and some kids, the Rockies made the world series with Jeff Francis as their ace. I mean, come on. This "ace" thing is way overated.

"And for the record, I think the Mets' window is now. Reyes/Wright are young, but your 2b is ancient (and that contract is awful; he will break down-we saw it in MN), Delgado is about done at 1b, and Beltran isn't getting any younger. Plus Pedro only has a couple good years left (you hope) and the bullpen's not exactly young. I don't think the window is all that long overall."

Exactly why we cant trade you our CF of the future, best hitting prospect, and 2 or 3 of our best pitching prospects! You are exactly right. But keeping these guys gives the Mets a chance to stay competitive for years instead of just one or two years.