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« Kelvim Escobar's Season May Be Over | Main | Roberts-Cubs Deal Off The Table »
Padres Acquire Justin Huber
According to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star, the Padres have acquired Justin Huber from the Royals for a player to be named later. He's a good candidate to see time in left field for San Diego since he's out of options. Backing up Adrian Gonzalez at first probably isn't an option given Tony Clark's presence.
The 25 year-old gets a .255/.322/.420 projection from PECOTA and .279/.334/.437 from ZiPS. Baseball America spoke of a team official who compared Huber to Matt Diaz. It's a decent low-risk acquisition for Kevin Towers once again.
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If Huber is anything like Diaz, the Padres made a great move.
Posted by: Boswa73 | March 26, 2008 at 04:12 PM
I suggested Huber to the Padres in a previous thread; he represents an excellent buy-low scenario for a guy who can hit but has lacked a position up until now (which matches Hairston's profile prior to SD getting him).
Posted by: Devlsh | March 26, 2008 at 04:18 PM
I suggested Huber to the Padres in a previous thread; he represents an excellent buy-low scenario for a guy who can hit but has lacked a position up until now (which matches Hairston's profile prior to SD getting him).
Posted by: Devlsh | March 26, 2008 at 04:24 PM
I think this is a great move by San Diego. These are the kind of small moves that sometimes go unnoticed but end up giving San Diego such great depth and keeps this team in contention despite a mediocre farm system and a fairly low budget.
I never quite understood why Huber never got a chance to play some first with Kansas City since they were trotting out guys like Ryan Shealy and Ross Gload.
I don't get why more GM's don't look at failed prospects like Huber, because the guy is still like 25 or something, and unless he's had some serious regression or injuries I don't see why he nearly went unnoticed. Bravo to Towers.
Posted by: scribbletone | March 26, 2008 at 04:28 PM
How is a player that has a .255 BA projection anything like Matt Diaz, who has a .333 BA during the past 2 years?
Posted by: paulyicecubes | March 26, 2008 at 04:47 PM
I hate to see this move as a Royals fan, but atleast Huber will finally get to play in the Majors-unless San Diego hires Buddy Bell.
Posted by: Brett | March 26, 2008 at 04:48 PM
But won't this move just cut into Hairston's playing time? If Hairston gets full AB's, he can be an above average OFer...
Posted by: moebarguy | March 26, 2008 at 06:20 PM
Moebarguy, this is the way SD tells everyone they are worried that their major splash in the off-season is not going to be able to stay healthy. Meaning you should expect Hairston to play more CF than LF, thus they needed someone to fill the gap.
Posted by: AirmanSD | March 26, 2008 at 10:27 PM
Defensively, the Padres are asking for trouble when they turn infielders into outfielders (Hairston, Huber, Headley), especially with the vast expanses of Petco Park, a problem only further exasperated by the ancient Giles coming off microfracture knee surgery and Edmonds coming off leg issues of his own.
Offensively, it's a cheap fill by Towers, but I can't help but wonder how much it hurts their pitching.
Posted by: Devlsh | March 26, 2008 at 10:56 PM
Huber hit 20 HR in 300 ab in AAA last year after being hurt part of the year. And he considered that a down year for himself. Depending on who the Royals get back, this is a steal.
The Royals should have unloaded Gload.
Posted by: Ryan D | March 26, 2008 at 11:17 PM
Devish: I can't find the link right now but when I have more time later I'll post it, but it proves Petco's outfield, especially CF, is just slightly above average in size. I remember it was done by MGL.
Ryan D: I'm a Padres fan and happy to hear of the potential, but isn't AAA a huge hitter's league? I seem to remember Termel Sledge hitting ~36 HRs one year in AAA.
Posted by: gig | March 27, 2008 at 12:48 AM
I suppose it could be, but Huber is only 25 and has hit at every level he's been at. He won a batting title in AA.
I can tell you this. Royals fans are not happy at all that we kept Gload and dealt Huber.
Posted by: Ryan D | March 27, 2008 at 01:07 AM
“I'm a Padres fan and happy to hear of the potential, but isn't AAA a huge hitter's league? I seem to remember Termel Sledge hitting ~36 HRs one year in AAA.”
Yeah, the PCL (where the Beavers play) is an extreme hitters league. The League Average was a .279/.346/.437/.783 line where pitchers held a 4.68 ERA and 1.464 WHIP. It’s the exact opposite in the International league though (the other AAA lg) ~ there the LgAvg was a .262/.332/.395/.727 line with pitchers holding a 3.98 ERA and 1.371 WHIP.
Or to give you an even better idea of the split… In the PCL last year, 7 qualifying guys (like 200+ PA) held an OPS over 1.000 ~ Nelson Cruz managed the top mark of 1.126, with Mitch Jones, Geovany Soto, Nathan Haynes, (the Padres own…) Brian Myrow, John Lindsey and Joe Dillon following in that order…38 Guys total topped a 900 OPS, and the 100th ranked hitter (Callix Crabbe) held a 287/377/435/812 line. In contrast, the INT had 1 hitter with an 1.000+ OPS (D’Angelo Jimenez ~ yeah, how’d that happen huh…), only 5 players over 900 total (Jimenez, Shelley Duncan, Ryan Raburn, Jay Bruce and Jason Pridie) and the 100th ranked player (George Kottaras) only batted .241/.316/.408/.724. Callix (the 100th hitter in the PCL) would have ranked as number 35 in the International League! That’s extreme…
Now, sadly Huber came in at #70 in the PCL OPS rankings with his.276/.336/.517/.853 line. Knowing that the LgAvg was .279/.346/.437/.783 ~ well we actually see he was (-).003/(-).010/.080 off the average; which isnt that impressive really. 2006 was even worse, as the league saw the #100 hitter present a .895 OPS (yeah, 91 players had an OPS over 900 in the PCL in 06!) so I imagine Huber would have probably ranked about 125-ish with his .278/.343/.537/.880 mark. Again, not very good really. People here seem to like him a lot, but I don’t see it really. Other than those nice looking, but kinda hollow, lines in the end PCL and his tearing up AA in his third year there, well…
Lets just say that I really don’t think Huber will hit above like .250/.300/.400 playing half his games at Petco, and I don’t see him with the Padres very long because his D is not going to be making up for the questionable production at the plate… Hope I’m wrong, a Padre fan myself ~ but…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | March 27, 2008 at 02:23 AM
Justin Huber first hit AA at the age of 20, when he played 55 games there in the second half of the season. At 21 he spent time at A+, AA and AAA. At 22 he played 88 games at AA (when he won the batting title) and 32 at AAA.
Huber has also posted an OPS above the league OPS at every stop. In 2006, that was good for 70 point higher than league.
Posted by: Ryan D | March 27, 2008 at 04:08 AM
Yeah, I know ~ but it was still pretty good sample sizes he experienced in AA, a high amount of AB is generally about 500, with the Average being somewhere in the 300 to maybe 350 range. Plus, his age isnt that out of whack for a HS draftee; and he has something like 250G/800 AB of pro experience already. He was in AA with Jose Reyes and David Wright who were the same age, and in 04 there were 9 hitters total who were 21-22 on Binghamton with him.
Here are those years numbers BTW:
2003 ~ .264/.330/.425/.755 in 193 AB
2004 ~ .271/.390/.487/.877 in 236 AB
2005 ~ .343/.432/.570/1.002 in 335 AB
Then add in the fact that he is looking at a .289/.354/.501/.855 line in the hitter-heaven PCL (AAA) over his career; well I’m just not seeing it at all. I really think he is just one of those hyped Mets prospects who turned some heads one year (2005 in AA) but otherwise doesn’t have anything special at all on his record…
Posted by: darkstar1661 | March 27, 2008 at 02:32 PM
But darkstar, you gotta admit that the guy deserves a shot at some solid at bats somewhere. He may never be anything but at the same time he deserves 300 at bats so we can find out.
Posted by: scribbletone | March 27, 2008 at 06:52 PM
Not against giving him a shot, just trying to be realistic on the expectations. Like I said, “Hope I’m wrong, a Padre fan myself ~ but…” ~ well, that “but…” still stands :)
Posted by: darkstar1661 | March 27, 2008 at 07:34 PM
Huber was signed July 26, 2000. That is 3 weeks after turning 18 and so late that he barely got any playing time that season. Not only that, he was signed as an amateur free agent out of Australia. Not the same level of competition as even our HS systems. Developmentally, he would have to be considered behind any top prospect from the US.
Also, I suppose ML players such as Eric Byrnes, Hank Blalock, Lew Ford, Carlos Pena, etc. should have been discounted for only putting up ~.850 OPS in the PCL?
Posted by: Ryan D | March 28, 2008 at 02:56 AM
Listen, I’m sorry that its my opinion; but its not like I am basing it on nothing here. You can see everything yourself, his actual production is not that outstanding when taken in context. Outside of that one year in AA back in 2005, we just don’t see anything special. Or think about it this way, the ML-Equivalents of his 3 year numbers at AAA look like this:
2005 ~ .198/.243/.331 in 131 PA
2006 ~ .252/.327/.445 in 398 PA
2007 ~ .247/.303/.465 in 318PA
…Now remember that he will be playing in the single most difficult stadium to hit…
Really though, I’m just looking at his actual numbers, putting everything into context and coming out with a feeling of “I would like to be wrong, but his actual production says we might not want to expect anything really over .250/.300/.400 playing in hitter-hell Pecto”. I know you have your “I loved him when he was in KC, and he will be great because he is an abnormality in the world because he is out of Australia and he won a batting title in AA one year” or whatever, but… Well, where is the support for that other than what you want to feel?
Posted by: darkstar1661 | March 28, 2008 at 12:54 PM
FYI:
Pena hit .288/.399/.550/.949 over 431 AB (9th best OPS in the league) in his first year in the PCL. The next year he played with 3 teams (Oak’s AAA club, and in the majors for Oak and Det) ~ he managed to hit .242/.316/.448/.746 over 443PA (106 OPS+) in the ML, and .240/.332/.480/.812 in the PCL over 175PA. Yeah, I think I will give him some slack on those 175 PA and instead go with the overwhelming amount of PA otherwise that he had produced in both the minors and ML that point to a much better hitter.
Eric Byrnes, Hank Blaylock and Lew Ford?
~ Lew Ford is a rather miserable hitter, why would you bring him up for support to your argument? Lew did pretty good his first year until pitchers figured him out. The best he has done since then is .265/.338/.377. Hence the reason he doesn’t have a job…
~ Eric Byrnes has been a roller costar of below to slightly above ML-Avg. The perfectly average career line of .267/.329/.451 (100 OPS+) tells us that’s just what he is really. So his rather Average looking numbers in the PCL make sense, don’t they?
~ Hank Blaylock spent 1YR / 95G / 387 AB in the PCL as a 21 YO and didn’t do so hot. (.307/.363/.457/.820). Now, had he spent 3 years from ages 22-24 compiling 767 AB while not posted anything better than that line he had, then I would question him more. As it stands though, Blaylock isnt that amazing of a hitter outside of his hitter-heaven home park anyway. His career splits of .318/.390/.609/.999 in Tex vs .265/.321/.469/.790 away from Tex shows that his numbers are more a creation of Arlington than Blaylocks ability.
If anything, I really think your examples only further lead me to question Huber though. ~Pena destroyed the ball in his first PCL stint at a younger age and followed it up with solid numbers in the Majors the next year. ~Blaylock put up similar numbers at a much younger age over a fraction of the time in the PCL, and is more a product of his environment after the fact. ~Ford is pitiful, and I surely hope Huber isnt like him. ~Byrnes put up Avg numbers in the PCL that look rather similar to those of Huber, and has produced rather Avg numbers overall since. Well, the *LgAvg in SD last year was .262/.330/.418 ~ which is similar to what I said for Huber outside of a slight OBP increase.
Posted by: darkstar1661 | March 28, 2008 at 12:58 PM
Look, all I am saying is that Huber's numbers suggest he will be a solid major league hitter.
He put up OPS of:
.859 in limited International league action.
.905, .838 and .853 in PCL action all the while being injured and jerked around to different positions.
He had OBP that was 80-100 points above his BA, which suggests that he is a patient hitter (and walks). He had the power. Maybe he won't amount to anything, but all signs point to him being a solid major league hitter.
By the way, you can only really call someone average if they are close to league average. Otherwise, they are above average. Huber never posted average numbers in the minors.
Posted by: Ryan D | March 29, 2008 at 04:28 AM