Stark's Latest: Bonds, Howard, Vargas

Howard likely will have already started his decline phase by the time he reaches free agency.

A 31 yr old DH who can barely run as is? Yeah, he'll get a long way demanding huge money.

So...I am, and have always been a Phillies fan. Because I am a Phillies fan, I have also had the pleasure of watching Howard use CBP for his launching pad to boost his homerun numbers.

I love Ryan, but I honestly don't think that a trade before he expects a big day is a bad idea for the Phillies. Howard is not a clutch hitter, which keeps him out of the elite. He also, as everyone always says, strikeouts too much and is average at best at first.

He is not a physical specimen who will last for a long term, and I think the Phils would be smart to trade him earlier when he still has INSANE value.

Go ship em Gillick.

I hope the Sox don't sign him to a long term deal.

Think DET goes after Weaver or Tejada for the 'pen and/or Willis insurance?

Weaver is a wreck and no one wants him. Tejada isn't terrible, but I'd pass. And you can't make assumptions about Willis until he at least pitches a game or two.

The big news in this post is that Sheffield has hurt his finger. Hopefully he can come back from this and still contribute, but things are already not looking too bright for our offense.

Anyone inquiring about Mike Hampton? Pay no attention to his "start" tonight.

Well, Ryan Howard can dream, can't he? I seriously doubt someone who doesn't hit for average and plays a non-premium position that he can't field at an even average level, as well as hitting in a bandbox for a home park is going to be snagging a contract bigger than MIggy Cabrera.

Is Howard serious? He's not even in Cabrera's league as a hitter. Sounds like Scott Boras is pumping his head WAY TOO BIG.

Don't forget, either, that Howard came up very late in age after being blocked by Jim Thome and his contract.

Like I said, it's nice to dream and fantasize, eh? He'll take what money he can get, and he'll be happy with it.

Then again, he might not be a bad signing for someone like Texas, who can afford him, would have a place for him to play, and gives him another cozy ballpark for him to play in as he dreams of comparing himself to Babe Ruth.

My, how far Howard has come with his ego. He was very uncomplaining and modest when he came up, patient despite being blocked for so long. Now he seems to be getting more entitled by the minute. Time to check your head, Ryan.

"Weaver is a wreck and no one wants him. Tejada isn't terrible, but I'd pass. And you can't make assumptions about Willis until he at least pitches a game or two.

Posted by: TigerFan54 | April 03, 2008 at 07:04 PM"

Considering who's in that DET 'pen, I wouldn't be so quick to pass on Tejada. Plus, we've all seen Willis decline in the NL, now he's in the AL. Can Rogers stay healthy a full season? Bonderman's looking more-n-more like a 4/5, and are you really counting on Nate Robinson? You sound like a Mets fan thinking Pedro and El Duque are still pitching/healthy like when they were on the Red Sox and Yanks.

Howard is out of his mind. He'll be in for a rude awakening when he gets an offer similar to Carlos Lee's 6/100. Thats all he deserves, and with the expected decline from leaving Philly and age, that may be too much considering he's a mediocre fielder at arguably the easier position to fill with a hitter.

And I seriously doubt that Detroit would even consider bringing back Weaver. Not only did he leave on not so great terms, but he's a shittyass pitcher at this point.

I agree about Weaver, but I find him intriguing as a reliever. I was more thinking about Tejada in DET given everything I mentioned above about their (lack of)pitching.

Tejeda makes sense for the Tigers because he's got a pretty high ceiling for a guy available for free (in terms of talent) in April. He's still got potential to be a pretty good starter, leaving them some insurance for the aging Rogers and the potentially crappy Willis, or a good reliever. They could use both of those at this point.

Despite his power, Howard isn't exactly a spring chicken... look for that to being his contract #s back down to earth.

I will start by saying this... Remember that the baseball world is not a closed system. There are plenty of teams out there that could use the power boost that Howard would bring, even not at the same clip as in PHI, and in three years when he reaches free agency he will be 31 years old (or 32). Thus something like 6-8 years and 120 million is not out of the question.

Think of it this way, i will provide you with a West Coast example, both LA teams have young 1st basemen that are very promising, but might not live up the hype. Both teams have shown willingness to spend large amounts of money, sometimes ill-advised amounts. ( GMJ 55 million for 5 years, and JP 44 million for 5 years) Thus say either or even both of these teams believe they need a first baseman when he becomes a free agent?

Just because it doesn't make sense now doesn't mean will continue not to make sense forever. Do I think he is worth the money, no, but than again, what do i know about hitting major league pitching.

As for the Bonds thing, well point blank, if i believed he would give the Padres what the needed to win a championship, I want them to sign him, but he can't play defense anymore, thus if an American League team needed a good hitting DH, they should take a flier on him, if its the difference between being competitive and wining a championship.

Why wouldn't Detroit sign Bonds? Didn't he play for Leland in Pitt.? They have sold off their farm system to win this year. What's another 6-10 million?

" As for the Bonds thing, well point blank, if i believed he would give the Padres what the needed to win a championship, I want them to sign him, but he can't play defense anymore, thus if an American League team needed a good hitting DH, they should take a flier on him, if its the difference between being competitive and wining a championship.

Posted by: AirmanSD | April 03, 2008 at 10:01 PM "

Sounds like Seattle to me, but they've already said they have no interest. BLACKBALLED.

On Bonds. He may have been a cheaper and better choice for the Halos than Hunter, given that they have so many blocked outfielders and that Matthews is so good defensively. That said, I think he may well win a collusion case in the future. As it is, I think the Tigers have the least need for him, even with Sheffield going down, because it doesn't seem like they will be able to move Inge and may as well get something for his contract.

Now, moving to Howard. I tend to agree that Howard is not going to get the length of deal Cabrera has simply because he is four years older, yet at an earlier point in his career for the purposes of free agency. I do think he will get Cabrera, or even Santana money when divided on a yearly basis. As far as all the talk about Howard's numbers being inflated by CBP, I guess people haven't paid much attention to BBR lately. He has hit 11 points higher on the road in his career with a nearly identical OPS. As for not being clutch, the numbers don't support that either. His numbers as a pinch hitter are huge, as are his 2 out RISP numbers, where he has more walks than strikeouts and a huge OPS. Finally, his late season numbers are much better than those in the early season, which bodes well for a stretch run.

Ryan Howard is probably going to end up as the next Mo Vaughn.

Perfect comparison DentalPlan.

Howard has less than three full years of service time coming into this season, so I don't think he's a FA until after the 2011 season.

I'm not sure how much of this is about his ego, though. When has a Boras client ever signed a pre-FA contract that was actually fair to the team as well as the player? Matsuzaka doesn't count.

The only thing Howard loses by not signing a contract is security, and with a $10M arbitration award this year, that may not be such a big issue. As long as he stays healthy, he's likely to keep setting arbitration records. SO why not watch where the market goes in the next few years? When he finally is a FA, he won't be the first declining one-dimensional slugger to get a contract that far exceeds his worth.

Detroit will pass on Bonds. If if Sheffield is out a while, they have guys like Inge, Thames, and Raburn that all could fill in. Cabrera will play DH and Inge will play 3rd. Let's say the Tigers signed Bonds. What would happen to Sheffield when he came back? You can't putting either one in the outfield. Also, how would Bonds and Sheffield act towards each other. I could see some brawls going on. It wouldn't be worth it to sign Bonds. I like the Seattle fit.

Why would Toronto want Bonds if they already have Thomas not playing the field?

Check that, Howard is not a Boras client and never has been. So ignore that part, but I'm still not sure this isn't all strictly business.

1001
1049
1066

Those numbers represent the OPS posted by another fat, can't run, strikes out too much (although not as much), DH only player. The OPS covers ages 29, 30, 31.

I don't see a lot of Sox fans posting in this thread. My guess is that they can live just fine with David Ortiz taking up their DH spot. People here are so quick to point to Mo Vaughn as a comparable but why not Ortiz?

Ortiz is a top 5 dangerous hitter in the game. If he hit the open market this year I would expect FA offers over $20m/year. Why not the same for Howard - who has a ML career OPS of 1007?

And while I don't expect Howard will land a 8 year deal, I could easily see a 4/100 offer coming in (that's down the road a few years once he hits FA).

About Bonds, if he really wants to get back into baseball he should go play in an independent league now. He could easily put to rest the chemistry questions and be game ready when the inevitable call comes. The positive impact he would have on the league and some towns economy would be a windfall. It would go a long way towards mending his image and he could quickly find himself back in the good graces of society.

And on Howard, I'm a Phillies fan and a lot of what Hamelsismyhero said is true. BUT, CBP has a neglible impact on his HR totals. He his home/road splits are nearly identical for HR for his career. There are very few parks that would really lower his totals, maybe Petco and Comerica but few others.

"Ortiz is a top 5 dangerous hitter in the game. If he hit the open market this year I would expect FA offers over $20m/year. Why not the same for Howard - who has a ML career OPS of 1007?"

Why not? Same reason that Ortiz isn't getting any $20M/yr offers -- he's not a free agent. The Phillies already own Howard's next four seasons. They shouldn't have to pay a premium for doing him the favor of taking on the risk that he gets hurt or declines. They should get a discount for taking on that risk. If he's not interested in making that kind of deal, they should just pay the arbitration awards and let him walk when he can.

That's not any kind of criticism of Howard as a hitter, or a prediction that he will fall off a cliff on his 31st birthday. It's just the way the system works.