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« Odds And Ends: Benitez, David Wells, Delgado | Main | On The Hot Seat: Giambi, Hafner, Sexson, Timlin »
Thoughts On Hanley's Deal
Tim here. I thought I'd weigh in on Hanley Ramirez's six-year, $70MM contract. I've seen the $11.66MM average annual value tossed around, but I don't think that figure helps us evaluate it. It's not as if this is a free agent contract.
As far as I can tell, Ramirez's contract starts with the 2009 season. That would mean it buys out all three arbitration years plus another three free agent years. What did Hanley stand to make in his arb years? Miguel Cabrera will have been paid $33.7MM for that chunk of his career. Given that Ryan Howard received 35% more than Cabrera did for his first arb year, it's possible that Hanley would've earned $45MM for his three arb years.
Under that assumption, there's only $25MM left to cover the three free agency years. That's just $8.3MM a year for 2012-14! Ramirez figures to be worth at least three times that salary, regardless of his defense or position. Aside from his superstar performance, Ramirez has been very durable and has shown no ill effects from October shoulder surgery. As if this deal wasn't team friendly enough, it appears to lack any no-trade provisions. This contract seems so favorable to the Marlins that they would've had to sign it regardless of their stadium situation. Of course, nothing has been officially announced yet.
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Good now they can trade him to the Mariners for Richie Sexson and prospects, how's that for a Mariners slanted comment, have a field day Darkstar... Let's see how you overreact to this post!
Posted by: BaseballGuru | May 11, 2008 at 04:05 AM
Oh in case you missed the humor, why don't you throw in Dan Uggla, Mike Jacobs, and a bag of practice balls and the Mariners will give 2 A ball players!
Posted by: BaseballGuru | May 11, 2008 at 04:07 AM
Why would Ramirez sign that deal? makes no sense at all
he can hit the jackpot in 3 years and play for a team that cares about winning year after year after year...
Posted by: tehasguard | May 11, 2008 at 06:49 AM
"That's just $8.3MM a year for 2012-14! Ramirez figures to be worth at least three times that salary, regardless of his defense or position."??
I realize you are stating - fairly correctly - that he is a top tier player. But in just 3 years, you really expect him to be making $25MM a season?
I doubt even the Yankees or Red Sox would pay him that. (Though I bet the Sox wish they had him instead of Lugo right now)
Posted by: 99Perfectos | May 11, 2008 at 07:04 AM
Making $25MM a year, possibly. Worth that much, yes.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | May 11, 2008 at 08:09 AM
Yes of course the Sox wish they had him over Lugo. Honestly though, what team can say that they wouldn't take Hanley over their short stop? Plus the Red Sox knew he was going to be this good, as did the Marlins. However, they also knew that Beckett had the post-season experience and success which would parlay into taking over the role as big game pitcher and Ace from Schilling. The deal has worked out for both sides, and for the Red Sox more, as they got a World Series MVP, an ALCS MVP, and after some wheeling and dealing, they turned Guillermo Mota into Javier Lopez after the trade to Cleveland brought back Riske, then Riske was sent to the White Sox for Lopez.
Posted by: dudewheresmygrl | May 11, 2008 at 08:29 AM
I don't think anyone knew Hanley was going to be Hall of Fame good, Marlins included.
He went from a .720 OPS in Double A in '05 to an .833 OPS in the Majors in '06. No one predicted it.
Posted by: Tim Dierkes | May 11, 2008 at 09:35 AM
I don't know anything about his makeup, but is he actually a pretty humble guy? Would he take less money to stay with his team if he thought they had a chance to contend before they contract was up? He's their franchise guy if he stays with them, no question. Chipper and Smoltz have always done this sort of thing for the Braves just because they wanted to stay in Atlanta.
Posted by: FineHamAbounds | May 11, 2008 at 10:18 AM
Why would the Mariners ever trade Sexson for Hanley? Loria would run away and hide if he could pull that off. Richie Sexson is the second best player in the history of MLB, I dont think there is any denying this. The only way the Marlins could possibly come out better then trading Hanley for Sexson is if they could somehow find a way to pry Adrian Beltre away from Seattle instead, being that he is the only player to ever play baseball who can say he is superior to Richie Sexson.
Posted by: nrmax88 | May 11, 2008 at 10:55 AM
"Why would Ramirez sign that deal? makes no sense at all he can hit the jackpot in 3 years and play for a team that cares about winning year after year after year..."
Security. You never know what kind of injury or fall off or whatever a guy can have. Taking $70MM now more than sets him for life and he'll still hit free agency at age 31.
Posted by: Not Joe Morgan | May 11, 2008 at 11:28 AM
"Security. You never know what kind of injury or fall off or whatever a guy can have. Taking $70MM now more than sets him for life and he'll still hit free agency at age 31."
obviously you are correct, its just that the numbers seem low compared to what others received ... 70m by itself, is an insane amount of money ^^
Posted by: tehasguard | May 11, 2008 at 01:22 PM
This deal makes sense if you value the arby years as so:
Year 1: 6 million
Year 2: 8 million
Year 3: 10 million
The three arby years count as 24 million of the 70 million dollar contract, placing a 46 million dollar value on the free agent years.
Posted by: johnsonburbank | May 11, 2008 at 09:43 PM
Hanley's arb years are worth much more than the above figures. Given that Howard won his first arb year ang got $10 million, Hanley had to be headed straight to something similar given that he has better all-around numbers than Howard and means more to his team. It wouldn't be unrealistic to see him as the first $15 million arb case. I don't think $40 million for the arb years is out of the realm of reality and then 3 years of very cheap free agency at $10 million a year.
Posted by: AA | May 12, 2008 at 07:48 PM