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Dontrelle For Lugo?

The Tigers 2009 season is going to be reliant on some bounce back candidates to do just that.

According to Jon Paul Morosi, the Tigers will need to guess which of Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, and Nate Robertson will bounce back. And aside from Verlander, they will more than likely want to deal one of them to scale back an already unsustainable projected team salary of $130MM.

Some speculation by Morosi: The Tigers need a shortstop and could swap Dontrelle Willis for Boston's Julio Lugo. Both guys are signed through 2010, Willis making $22MM and Lugo making $18MM. The Red Sox have shown a willingness to take on reclamation projects in pitchers like Wade Miller and Bartolo Colon, so why not Dontrelle when they have a more favorable (and fan-friendly) option at shortstop in Jed Lowrie? The Tigers could also use the spare $4MM and the Red Sox could afford the risk. Morosi quotes Jim Duquette:

"That can be an effective way to swap players who've had below-average years," Duquette said, when asked about that approach. "Lugo would not be a bad player in that situation, as long as you're not taking on any more money. It would be a break-even proposition. "You take the position player and hope that Lugo has more of a bounce-back year."


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Stat-savvy as the Red Sox are, I can't imagine they'd want Dontrelle, even in that scenario. There's no good reason to believe he'll ever be good again, especially in the A.L. East.

If the Red Sox could get Dontrelle Willis to come over to Boston and recreate himself with Josh Beckett his former teammate then they would definitely be gaining a hell of a lot by just giving up Julio Lugo.

Yeah I feel like this deal is plausible in that sense.

Even though its far more likely that Lugo bounces back and becomes a solid shortstop, if Willis bounces back and becomes a middle of the rotation starter, he's far more valuable. Willis is younger and a lefty, so if he bounced back he'd be far more valuable than a bounced back Lugo.

The only problem though is that it appears very unlikely that Willis ever becomes anything near what he was 3 years ago. If anything he probably ends up becoming Daniel Cabrera for a couple years.

well all we need now is burnett and we would have the florida marlins ex starting staff. willis is an interesting guy. i would like to see him get back t form but for the money the sox will be paying to get him back into form? wayyy to much. lugo needs to go and there is no way the tigers will take him. if they do then see if you can rework willis' deal.


if we are gonna pick up 22 million for a pitcher go get cc sabathia, burnett, or ben sheets. not some "project"

I was thinking SS J.Lugo for C R.Hernandez. Boston might have to throw a bit of money into the deal but it would fill needs for both teams next year. And open up spots for younger players (Lowrie and Wieters).

It's not $22 million per season, its a 2 year deal, and it is rare to get a pitcher in a short-term deal. Next year the Red Sox rotation looks like 1. Beckett 2. Lester 3. Matsuzaka 4. Wakefield 5. Buchholz with Bowden fighting for a spot either out of spring training or before the All-Star break. This deal could make sense for the Red Sox if it is used to push Buchholz to fight for a spot, with upside if Willis earns it and contributes. One aspect I would like to see is if we would have the ability to send Willis to the minors like the Tigers did last year with him, because then if Buchholz earns his spot over Willis, the Dontrelle would be there if/when we need a starter with Bowden and would create another season of insane depth at SP for the Red Sox. Overall I would like this deal, and seeing as money isn't an impediment for the Red Sox (see Renteria, Edgar) and the fact that Lugo is replaced with a $350K player in Lowrie, I like the potential this deal contains for the Red Sox, and perhaps the Tigers get a league-average shortstop in the process, and it's a win-win trade of prohibitive contracts.

We're not picking up a $22 mil pitcher, we'd be picking up a $4 mil pitcher.

I don't know why the Tigers would want to trade a pitcher who could bounce back and be good again for a SS who was never that good and who I am not sure is any better than Ramon Santiago.

Why does anyone think Dontrelle will be any good? I suppose if you don't want Lugo, you can think of it as a wash. But there's no evidence that Willis will be anything but a disaster.

As an Orioles fan my only question is how does Duquette get to decide which trades make sense? He was terrible in Baltimore and now is terrible working for MLB. Things don't change just because you change jobs.

Lugo costs 18 million! I did not know that. That has been a horrible deal.

"The Red Sox have shown a willingness to take on reclamation projects in pitchers like Wade Miller and Bartolo Colon..."

Shouldn't these two be used as reasons why the the Red Sox shouldn't trade for Willis? Willingness and success are two different things...

Josh Beckett

Jon Lester

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Tim Wakefield/Clay Buchholz

Dontrelle Willis

Picking up the D-Train I think is a good idea when you think about it. Because if he can get back to being good and lets say Buchholz doesn't pan out like he's suppose to then he can be used as trade bait for a future player we might need. I like Buchholz alot and believe he's gonna be a really great pitcher but I just dont believe he's gonna be what I like 2 call a "Boston" pitcher. Even though he has showed promise, I dont know why but he reminds me of Bronson Arroyo just a tad better. But, you have to remember how much Arroyo was hyped in Boston for a while. I think Clay is a at most # 4-5 starter , the highest 3 but no more. Dontrelle on the other hand can be a 2,3, or 4. But when they're both performing their best D-Train takes the cake.

Dontrelle Willis has negative trade value. Albatross contract with an inability to throw strikes. It's not like you can turn him into a $22m lefty specialist either if he's not throwing strikes. Willis has no motivation to improve since he's already getting paid (and set for life) regardless. It's a bad idea.

Julio Lugo, while disappointing, still can provide value as a utility player off the bench if he's not starting. In terms of floor with these 2 players, Lugo's is considerably higher.

It doesn't make sense for a team with the rotation depth like the Red Sox have to take on an expensive reclamation project like Willis. For a team with question marks in the rotation, deep pockets, and a pitching coach with a massive ego, yes, a deal like that might make sense.

How is everyone forgetting Justin Masterson as a rotation candidate? The only reason he is in the bullpen is need, not because he's shown he belongs there. He's shown, to date, that he may be a more consistent major league starter than Clay Buchholz. Maybe not the same "upside" but he has surely gone past Clay in the depth chart.

As for Lugo, first off, he's costing 9 million a year for two more years. Beyond a doubt the worst contract Theo has given, non-JD Drew division. If you can trade him without having to pay his salary, you ought to do it. Anything that Dontrelle gives is icing on the cake.

And furthermore, if Dontrelle fails to return to his prior form at all, their pitching depth, with Buchholz and Bowden waiting for a chance, gives them the freedom to take a flier.

And furthermore, that's assuming they don't use the payroll flexibility to go after C.C.!

"'The Red Sox have shown a willingness to take on reclamation projects in pitchers like Wade Miller and Bartolo Colon...'

Shouldn't these two be used as reasons why the the Red Sox shouldn't trade for Willis? Willingness and success are two different things..."

Actually, the Colon project wasn't a bust, as he has posted a 3.92 ERA in 7 started games, before succumbing to injury, and being suspended by the BoSox for refusing to pitch from the bullpen. Wade Miller posted a sub 5.00 ERA in 16 games started for the Red Sox before getting hurt. You can't really say that they were terrible signings.

As for this rumour, it seems plausible. I mean, Willis is still relatively young, and he's been an innings-eater for most of his career. He has success already on his resume. Plus, a chance to be reunited with an old teammate could do wonders for his game. Not to mention, the added bonus of the BoSox unloading Lugo's terrible contract.

As for the Tigers' side, Lugo is a little more expensive, but he could be the SS that the Tigers' have been looking for. I know he's been terrible, and more often that not, he'll give you a .250 average, but he can't be as bad as Renteria, and maybe a change of scenery could also help his play.

Wait, scratch that. Willis would be getting paid more than Lugo. As per Cot's Baseball Contracts, Lugo will be paid $9mil for '09, $9mil for '10, as a $9mil vesting option for '11. Willis would be getting pad $10mil for '09, and $12mil for '10.

I should also mention, IF this trade was done, then I'm sure the BoSox could always use Buchholz as a trading chip to acquire a promising young catcher (I'm looking at you, Salty) and then some.

Plus, like some of you have mentioned, they still have Masterson and Bowden as depth pitchers with tons of upside, so why not trade some of your surplus (in this case, young pitchers) for an improvement somewhere else (ie. catcher)?

Seems strange that the Tigers would trade pitching when they are in so much need. Yeah, Willis might be done as an effective pitcher but it's not like players like Lugo are hard to find. If there's a chance that Willis can be effective again the Tigers really need to keep him and take that chance. They've got to do something about shortstop but Lugo type players can be found easier than Willis type pitchers. I'd say there's a better chance that Lugo is the better player next year but it doesn't seem to benefit the Tigers to find that out. They certainly need salary relief but given the size of their current payroll $4 million over two years isn't that big of a deal. Everyone seems to be looking at this from a Red Sox perspective but there is the other side to it and it has to make sense for the Tigers too.

Dontrelle Willis could stab a small child in the face and take a dump on the mound during the singing of Sweet Caroline and still be more valuable than Julio Lugo.

I'd trade Lugo for a malignant tumor.

I've got to be honest here. I would definately take this deal. Like Mr. Tauntaun stated, we'd be getting Dontrelle for 2 years at a net of $4 Million. Is he worth that? Of course he is. No matter how we go about it, Julio Lugo will be moved this offseason. To get anything of value, we would need to pay his contract, anyway. Why not trade Lugo for a $4M D-Train that we would have for 2 years? Let's be serious here, his average season is about 14-11 with a 3.78 ERA. I don't know about you, but if that was my number 5 starter, I'd take it. Not to mention the fact that the Red Sox offense should give him quite a bit of run support.

His average season is irrelevant. Take a good look at his two most recent seasons. Or, try plotting his stats on a graph and see how that turns out.

Willis is a mess. To think that he can bounce back is taking an extremely optimistic perspective on his situation.

That's not to say that this is a bad deal. Just don't get your hopes up too high that he will suddenly remember how to pitch. The Tigers thought they had figured out the Dontrelle puzzle. Obviously, they failed miserably.

I'd rather take the chance of him "maybe remembering how to pitch" than Lugo "maybe remembering..." Well, learning how to hit.

I think the least that Detroit should get for Willis is a SS with a reasonable ceiling. Lugo would just mean that they're going to want to get a new SS when he gets as bad as Reteria. Personally, I'd say completely switch up the infield and let Guillen take over SS again and grab up a talented 1B or 3B depending on where they want Cabrera (Dimitri Young probably wouldn't be too expensive). Or maybe give Matt Joyce or Mike Hessman a shot at a regular job. I think they have a lot of options, which is one of the few things going for this team since they cleared out their farm.

As much as I think trading an okay to mediocre shortstop/utility player for a pitcher that has won 20 games in a season is a steal for the team that gets the pitcher. I would be hesitant in trading junk for another piece of junk.

Fenway is not a southpaw friendly park, Lester's no hitter or not, The Sox tend to have one southpaw on the starting rotation...

That said, There seemed to some serious control issues with Willis right now, and he hasn't been the pitcher that he was in 2005. I am wondering if he needs surgery or some serious rehab. He is still young, but I think it is much riskier to get him than keep lugo and his $9 million a year contract.

I think the Sox should go with the trade if they think he is still has potential, if he doesn't, his pitching will cause more headaches in the realm of Eric Gagne time with the Sox.

Who said Dontrelle was getting a spot in the major league rotation?

Why would DET want to replace Renteria with Lugo when Lugo is even worse defensively at SS?

If DET wants a good defensiveSS, why not go after FA's Adam Everett or better yet Raffy Furcal who could hit leadoff and allow Granderson to hit lower in the order?

As silly as this sounds... a trade straight up actually hurts the Red Sox more than dealing with Lugo on his own. The Sox can eat his contract and probably still get at least an ok reliever. Or worst case scenario, force Lugo into a utility role slash back up plan in case of injury.

I'm willing to bet Willis has reached his high water mark on his career. He'll get decent contracts once this one is over, but it'll be mostly because of the desperate hope that he could regain his 2005 magic.

"Why would DET want to replace Renteria with Lugo when Lugo is even worse defensively at SS?"

Prove that.

Renteria always has a higher RZR and OOZ/9 than Lugo does.

Lugo is more of utility player than a shortstop, and he has played outfield with the Angels and Tampa Bay..
Trading a mediocre to average shortstop/utility player for a pitcher, no matter they are far from their peak years is lopsided trade. This is more about salary dump by the Tigers, and who would deal with them.

If the Sox are going to spend the $4 million difference for this trade, they would want Willis as a starter they can save much money by using their farm system to fill their bullpen, or shop for more money for someone who is more bona fide. The Sox have gone for questionable pitchers like Wade Miller, Colon. They also dumped questionable pitchers like Lowe, Wells and Colon. They don't pay much for questionable pitchers, (with the exception of Schilling this year) but Willis would be a gamble, and the Sox are a in different position than they were in beginning of 2005.

Renteria has no range left, and at this point is much less athletic than Lugo, who is a significantly better defensive shortstop than Renteria. Another thing to consider here is the health of both players. Lugo has been out with his quad injury, and Willis pitched 60-something innings between the majors and minors this year, which significantly decreases both players' value.

"Lugo is more of utility player than a shortstop, and he has played outfield with the Angels and Tampa Bay.."

What? Lugo never played for the Angels and never played outfield in Tampa Bay... in fact he's only started 6 games in the outfield in his entire career.

Lugo is not worth$18 million, and you cant just trade him straight up. The BoSox might have to make a deal similar to the Beckett/Lowell trade.
Boston wanted Beckett and Florida was willing to trade him as long as Lowell was included. (No team wanted Lowell). So here is a deal that could possibly work.
Youklis and Lugo for a ML ready starter and a catcher.
Then the money from saved from Manny go out and sign Texiera.

I don't think Dontrelle Willis falls into the same category as Bartolo Colon at all---Colon took a minor-league deal with no guaranteed money, and only $1.25MM *if* he made the big-league team. Willis is still owed a lot more money! I think the pitching-starved Tigers would be better off hoping (against hope) that he rebounds this year. It will be too hard/costly to move him at this point.

"Youklis and Lugo for a ML ready starter and a catcher."

Why do people constantly seem to believe Youk is the guy the Sox are ready to trade? It makes absolutely no sense. Youk is one of the Sox best hitters, a gold glover at first, has the rare ability to hit in almost any spot in the batting order, and has the mentality to play for a team like Boston. Add to that, the Sox have no one waiting in the wings to take over first, Anderson is likely to spend most of next year in Portland, maybe the last month in Pawtucket. And don't count on them signing Tex.

If you fully read my post, I stated that the money you save from Manny ($20 million). The Red Sox could sign Mark Texiera. Youkilis is a good player but does have the power like Tex does.
Varitek is getting old and unproductive, the Sox need fresh blood behind the plate someone like Salty from Texas.

I doubt the Sox have any interest in moving Youk. Once Lowell is gone, Youk will be shifted to 3B and Lars Anderson will take over at 1B.

I don't see the reason for the Sox to trade Lugo for Willis. Like someone said earlier, they could just eat most of his salary and get a decent bullpen piece instead of taking on a reclamation project making MORE than Lugo. This is actually nothing like the Wade Miller/Bartolo contracts since they were both for low money/minor league type deals.

"I don't think Dontrelle Willis falls into the same category as Bartolo Colon at all---Colon took a minor-league deal with no guaranteed money, and only $1.25MM *if* he made the big-league team. Willis is still owed a lot more money! I think the pitching-starved Tigers would be better off hoping (against hope) that he rebounds this year. It will be too hard/costly to move him at this point."

Agreed. As I said earlier it doesn't make sense for the Tigers to be trading pitching when they need pitching more than they need dime-a-dozen middle infielders. The only way this makes sense is if you're a Red Sox fan wanting to dump Lugo, which appears to be the majority of the board. Remember, both teams have to sign off on the deal, not just Boston.

"If you fully read my post, I stated that the money you save from Manny ($20 million). The Red Sox could sign Mark Texiera. Youkilis is a good player but does have the power like Tex does.
Varitek is getting old and unproductive, the Sox need fresh blood behind the plate someone like Salty from Texas."

So cliche to throw his name out. Not to mention the Youk idea. Theo would only trade Youk if it was for Peavy and the Padres picking up his contract.

"If you fully read my post, I stated that the money you save from Manny ($20 million). The Red Sox could sign Mark Texiera. Youkilis is a good player but does have the power like Tex does."

I did read your full post, thus the don't count on Tex. Trades and signings work best in baseball when you're holding your cards close to your chest... impossible in this scenario.

"I doubt the Sox have any interest in moving Youk. Once Lowell is gone, Youk will be shifted to 3B and Lars Anderson will take over at 1B."

Lowell has 3 years left on his contract, so don't count on that one. I'm betting on Anderson getting time in left next year in Portland.

Wow. Youkilis will not be traded... ever.

"Youkilis is a good player but does have the power like Tex does."

That statement is actually laughable:

Kevin Youkilis: .309/26 HR/107 RBI/41 2B/.553 SLG
Mark Teixeira: .304/32 HR/119 RBI/38 2B/.547 SLG

Oh, and Teix has played in 11 more games, with 31 more AB's. Youk is actually slumping now, though, hitting .231 this month. Regardless, he is staying in Boston for a long time.

Now I'm just waiting for Dustin Pedroia rumors to fly haha.

Soxfan, taking 1 season can win the arguement. However, if you look at Tex's career his worse season for HRs 03 was when he hit 26 Hrs. Youk is a good hitter but DOES NOT have the power as Tex, Youk last year hit only 16.

"and he has played outfield with the Angels"

Angels huh? I wonder if Mike Scioscia knows he put Julio Lugo out there?

He has played a handful of games in the outfield for Houston and the Dodgers.

"That statement is actually laughable"

No it isn't. Youk is an excellent player with a great eye, but he is not the proven, consistent power hitter Teixiera is.

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