Jake Peavy Rumors: Monday

Towers wants quality over quality, eh? Interesting strategy...

Towers wants quality players for a quality player like Peavy. That's what that means.

I don't know how it would happen, but a top-of-the-rotation of Peavy-Harden-Zambrano would, unquestionably, be the best in MLB.

If the Dodgers make any trade for Peavy, I could see them giving up Scott Elbert, Andre Ethier, and possibly James McDonald. Those three right there blow away any offer from any other team, and intra-division or not, the Dodgers may not have to give up that much.

I don't understand the need to acquire more from a team because they are in the same division as you. Isn't your job as a GM to get the best haul you can in a trade? If it's from the same division, who cares? Demanding more from a team because they're in your division is not going to foster a trade, and thus forces you to accept the pu pu platter from either the Cubs or Braves. Take equal value, and take the best you can get. Acquiring lesser prospects because you won't have to face the player you traded still weakens your team more than taking the better prospects. Especially when you might only face that player 4 times a year.

McDonald will not be going anywhere.

The Braves will get the deal done eventually. They aren't even being mentioned in the NL East talks so they will need to make an impact deal to get back in the mix.

Unless they sign Sabathia, which I think they could if the Dodgers make a strong push, they definately need a top notch starter and Peavy is the only other guy.

San Diego is really in the driver's seat here so they don't have to pull the trigger on any deal if they aren't satisfied with the haul they receive in return. They have a lot of time to find the right package.

I think this deal will happen around June when the Braves realize that they are in a very close 4-team race in the NL East and they need to make a move to survive.

Wren is going to look like a fool if he doesn't make this happen. He has everything in place right now to pull the trigger. Think back to last year with the Yanks and Santana and you will see the parallel.

Am I the only one that thinks that Braves need more than Peavy to become legit WS contenders?

To say McDonald isn't going anywhere is short sighted. You can make an argument by saying that it would require a substantial return if McDonald were to be traded, and that would be valid. But to claim that he won't be apart of any trade discussion is incorrect.
Don't get me wrong, I like McDonald. He pitched extremely well in the playoffs. But he still has a total of 6 regular season major league innings. Peavy has a Cy Young. I see nothing wrong with trading a young pitcher for a Cy Young caliber pitcher when you can afford salary, and can contend every year, as the Dodgers can.

"Am I the only one that thinks that Braves need more than Peavy to become legit WS contenders?"

Nope, which is why Wren is going to try to get 2 starters and a power bat OF this offseason.

"If the Dodgers give up Ethier, which I don't think they will do, than Peavy will probably go there, same division or not. I do think they will be more inclined to give up Kemp than Ethier though, because of Ethier's last third of the season."

Ethier finished his 26 year old season, and has for all intents and purposes reached his ceiling. He's an above average OF. He's also up for arbitration. Kemp finished his 23 year old season. He was a league average CF with superstar potential. He's also improved rapidly from the beginning of the season in terms of ABs. I think Logan White would rather keep Kemp, but they are comparable when you consider Kemp's upside vs. Ethier now, plus being left handed.

The Braves need to add more than just 1 SP. They still need another starter and a good outfielder before anybody considers them a WS contender but they have the money/resources to make all three needs happen this offseason.

I think adding Peavy, Lowe and Ibanez would make them NL contenders. I would also look into trades for Edwin Jackson/Randy Winn. Wren has a busy offseason and a lot of money to spend so it should be interesting

Wolf isn't likely to sign with the Braves. He's made it known he likes being in Houston and wants to get a deal worked out.

"Frank Wren lets top prospects go, he will not have a job."

Are you saying that trading young players who may never pan out for great major league pitchers is a bad idea?

You can't get great players like Peavy without giving up a lot. If the Braves aren't willing to send a lot of talent back to SD then they won't be getting Peavy, who is already great. If they want to keep the kids and bank on them panning out then fine, but let's not hear any bitching next year ala Yankee fans who missed out on Santana.

I think most people overvalue their favorite teams prospects anyway. If you think your best prospect isn't worth giving up to get Jake Peavy then you've probably overvalued him.

Ethier wouldn't have nearly as much value as Kemp in trades.

Ethier is older, under control for less time, can't play center as well as Kemp, and doesn't quite have Kemp's upside. Ethier was better in 2008, but Kemp could very well be better in 2009.

And I agree with aduncaroo that the Cubs seem to be emerging as a legitimate suitor for Peavy. If they are willing to give up Vitters, Ceda, Pie and a pitcher, I think they stand a decent shot of landing him.

Mistyck, no offense but Pence is one pieces, and a good one, but the Astros lack the arm(s) that the Padres are looking for. And I highly doubt that another team will send them the pitchers that the Padres are looking for in any deal.

And Peavy health is a concern, its known, but he hasn't spend serious time on the DL, only missed 4 STARTS this year for it, the rest due to child brith and the Padres using a 6 man rotation.

scribbletone, thats sounding like the package we could get form the Astros, with the exception that we know what Pence is already. Ceda is someone we gave the cubs for Todd Walker, and doubt we want a reliever as the only arm we get back for Peavy. It more than likely needs to be something top of the rotation type prospect.

Vitters is nowhere close to MLB ready and is a 3rd baseman, not a middle infielder like the Padres want..Pie isn't a "quality prospect", nuff said!

How is Peavy an injury risk? Has he been abused over the past two seasons like a certain FA pitcher looking for $150 mil.? Has he been injured repeatedly or had a history of blisters like 2 other FA pitchers?
Peavy made 27 starts, had an ERA+ of 134 this past year. He went on the DL in May/ June. Still managed an ERA of 2.85 over the season. He's much less of an injury risk next year, or over the next 5 than Sabathia, Burnett or Sheets.

should have said, "a top LH power pitching prospect, OR a top CF prospect"...

Mistyck,
I think Pie IS a quality prospect. He isn't a blue chipper like he used to be, but I still think he has value.

Pence isn't a prospect, and is down some service time. Do you even know if the Stros are willing to include him in a deal? I've said that all along, if they do, they might be able to pull something off, because he is a quality player.

Vitters is a blue chipper, but you are right about him being at least 2 years away and playing 3rd...thats not ideal for the Pads.

I think a deal from the Cubs would have to be something like:

Vitters/Pie/Thomas

and their pick of any pitcher in the Cubs system

If a team like the stros, dodgers, or braves are willing to include Pence, Kemp, or Hanson type players, than I think it trumps the Cubs offer. However, its still yet to be seen in any of those players are available. We don't even know if Vitters is for that matter.

"The only way a Peavy trade will happen is a three-team trade."

"Frank Wren lets top prospects go, he will not have a job."

"McDonald will not be going anywhere."

Hey, which front office do you work in?

While I certainly would not call myself an Adam Dunn fan, I think both camps here are taking the argument to extremes. He is what he is and that's all he'll ever be: a big hulking slugger who- when able to make contact- hits it a country mile and who also posts excellent OBP's...always good for run production. Of course, when he doesn't slam a dinger or draw a walk, he's generally going to strike out. Until scientists figure out a way to harness that power for wind energy, it's going to infuriate fans and lead to debates like the one here. Why? Because, like most home run hitters, he's vastly overpaid (or soon will be).

I have no problem with ctownboy's characterization of baseball's economic climate and such and so forth, but he forgets one unassailable baseball truth...someone's ALWAYS stupid enough to overpay. Always! Remember, Carlos SILVA got mega bucks last off season. From Richie Sexton to Carl Pavano- who's in line to do it again (to a lesser degree) this winter- to...well, the list is endless; and the same is true for each and every one. Common sense said one thing, reality said another. If you think our current economic crisis is going to change that- at least this coming year- I suggest you remember who it is doling out these deals.

I personally think that the chances are slim- like 'actress on a show about spoiled teenagers on the CW' slim- that Dunn accepts arbitration to remain a D'back. Furthermore, when you consider the relative discount the 'backs would be getting in such a case, I'm sure it's a risk they're willing to take. Contrary to some of the above posts, Dunn cannot scan the market before deciding whether to accept or decline- at least, that's how I understand it. When Arizona offers, he has X amount of time to accept or decline. If he declines, then and only then is he a free agent...and able to discuss offers with other teams. A team that contacts him before such a time risks whatever penalties MLB chooses to levy. Of course, Dunn's reps will almost certainly assess the market and potential suitors to provide their client with an informed projection- what he can expect as a free agent- but in the end, that's little more than an educated guess. There IS a measure of risk involved. But that brings us back to basic baseball economics and the reality that someone always overpays. Frankly, in these post-steroid days of muted power numbers, I would expect Dunn to garner considerable attention...and the money to match. We'll see, I suppose.

Did the Reds make the right move? Tough to say. Still, I think if you're a D'backs fan, you have to love the way Josh Byrnes has positioned the franchise for the next...decade or so. And that's AFTER you account for the dubious decision to deal Carlos Quentin, but sign Eric Byrnes to a lucrative long term contract.

With Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Conor Jackson, Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Stephen Drew- all under 30; some considerably so- currently contributing as starters, Max Scherzer poised to join Haren and Webb as a frontline stud, and Jarrod Parker a few short years from joining them in the rotation, 'zona is already one of the youngest teams in baseball and, in the NL West, they've already developed into contenders. The playoff experience should only help them moving forward. Now, with these three free agents- two likely Type A's and a B- a system that has been among the best in baseball at scouting and development over the past few years, gets a windfall of picks in what's shaping up to be a decent draft class. Basically, in one fell swoop, they can, potentially, rebuild a farm system drained by its successes...and do so without negatively impacting their prospects for the upcoming season (at least not considerably). If they choose wisely, mixing quick moving collegians with high upside prep stars, the 'backs will essentially position themselves to contend in the NL West for the next decade or more. Even as the current crop of youngsters and young stars age and decline, the composition of this team is such that a transition of talent is not only possible but probable. As an outsider with no rooting stake in the franchise, I'm consistently surprised by the lack of attention given to this front office, which I believe ranks among the two or three best in baseball. To build a winner is a feat; to build a consistent winner- and to do so without the benefit of a Boston/New York budget- is pure genius.

jtcubbies,

Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, and Dodgers are the five teams.

The Braves ar the best match for the Padres - best young talent at the positions SD wants and they are not in their division. pinion, for the Padres to deal Peavy to the Dodgers, LA would have to overpay and Kershaw would have to be included. If not, no reason to deal him within the division. If the Braves don't want to deal Hanson or Jurjjens, I don't see the Padres dealing with them. While I agree the Cubs don't have the players, Towers and Hendry have a history of making deals. You never know...plus I don't see the Astros trading Pence.

JRD I think that's a pretty good deal. It would open Atlanta up to giving Lillibridge a chance to show what he's got, while also keeping prospects like Heyward and Schafer. Not a bad deal at all... now only if you could convince Towers...

jtcubbies:

The Astros are Peavy's FIRST CHOICE...LOL...

"How is Peavy an injury risk?"

He's had some elbow issues of late. Elbow issues can be very scary.

And as far as Hunter Pence goes, the guy will already be 26 next season, and while he's a very good player, he's not exactly a superstar upside type of player either.

And honestly I think people have to consider if the Astros would even be willing to move Pence. Is that a lock? I mean come on, if they move Pence, they won't have a single good young player in their lineup.

"I think a deal from the Cubs would have to be something like:

Vitters/Pie/Thomas

and their pick of any pitcher in the Cubs system"

I agree that the deal would definitely include Vitters and Pie, but I'm just having trouble figuring out how the Cubs could possibly give SD the young pitching they want. Ceda really won't ever be a starter, Veal's stock has plummeted, Samardzija has a NTC and they don't really have many other high upside options.

I do think something like Vitters, Pie, Ceda, and Marshall could get it done, if nobody else is willing to give up an elite centerpiece.

"If a team like the stros, dodgers, or braves are willing to include Pence, Kemp, or Hanson type players, than I think it trumps the Cubs offer. However, its still yet to be seen in any of those players are available. We don't even know if Vitters is for that matter."

This is basically what I mean. If none of those teams are willing to give up an elite centerpiece, then who is to say that the Cubs don't have a chance of landing Peavy? In fact, if none of those teams are willing to give up an elite centerpiece, I think the Cubs could easily slip to the front of the line. People seem to be underestimating Vitters, although the Cubs' pitching prospects could be an issue.

mistyck,

I was arguing that Pie's service time was any different. The main chip in the deal's we proposed would be Vitters/Pence. Pence has used some service time...thats all I'm saying.

Also, Pie spent much of last year back in AAA. When they made their debut doesn't really matter...its how much time they have spent in the bigs.

"If a .223 BA and a .284 OBP is a quality prospect, then so is Bourn...LOL.."

Somehow Bourne brought back Lidge to the Phillies...straight up. Think about that.

"And yes, the Astros would include Pence in a deal for Peavy because they have Bogusevic waiting in the wings..."

You might be right...but we aren't sure.

Kenan and Kel, that is just my opinion, did someone else say that too? If so complete coincidence.

"If Hanson or Jurrjens has to be included in a Peavy trade, then how are the cubs a possible suitor? That makes NO sense in my mind and if they really are, then a deal can get done with the braves without Hanson or Jurrjens."

Probably because the Padres haven't required that Hanson/Jurrjens be a part of the deal. I don't think a deal would ever happen if those were the requirements..

If I'm Jim Hendry, the only guy in the entire Cubs minor league organization that is untouchable is Vitters.

I do think that if you tell SD they can pick any 3-4 guys in the Cubs minor league system (w/ Marshall, Cedeno, or Pie included on that list) other than Vitters, that they could find some pieces they like.

I also still think that some team is going to be disappointed that they gave Dempster $14M+ per year.

PS, typekey blows.

"Lidge also brought us a very good relief pitcher in Geary"

True...but still...Bourne definitely still had value, and so does Pie.

Oswalt might love Peavy...but that doesn't mean that McLane doesn't love Pence. Like I said, he may be willing to give him up, but we just don't know yet.

""How is Peavy an injury risk?"

He's had some elbow issues of late. Elbow issues can be very scary."

Yeah, that elbow issue occurred in May/ June. Peavy managed to pitch the rest of the season without problems, and again, posted a 134 ERA+ for the season. If you want to consider a blip in May as "of late", so be it. But I'm not thinking any GMs view Peavy as an injury risk.

>>Oswalt might love Peavy...but that doesn't mean that McLane doesn't love Pence.<<

McLane gave Oswalt a $300,000 bulldozer for winning one game...trust me, he doesn't love Pence that much...heck even Berkman doesn't get that much love from McLane...

"J. Peavy in pinstripes ... yanks 09"

You'll have to turn off Fair Trades.

"but, as good as Hanson is and will be, the reality is that the Braves would be giving up a potential star for a certain superstar"

This is the truth.

And Hanson is good.

Mistck, the facts are on the table right before you. "Towers is "focused on three" teams. Krasovic believes these to be the Cubs, Dodgers, and Braves."

Sorry, but where is "Astros" in there? Yet, I see "Cubs" in there. Apparently, Towers may see things much differently than you do (or I do as that goes, for I don't think the Cubs have the horses to pull off a deal for Peavy without giving up Vitters... which I think would be rather stupid to do).

As I pointed out on another thread, you guys trading for Peavy would be a step back, not forward... no matter how you may pull the deal off. Towers may be pining for topnotch pitching in return for Peavy, but who knows what he considers topnotch pitching? Also, who says he won't pull the trigger on a great bat instead and use other means to pick up pitching?

I think Adun's notion of Vitters, Marshall, and another prospect or two gets the deal done. If that's the case, I would prefer to pass on Peavy and pick up another starter through free agency. Vitters is a stud that I think will make a splash sooner than expected. There were also talks to moving him to 2B and to corner OF spots when he was drafted in order to take full advantage of his athleticism. Marshall fills the swingman role nearly perfectly, but he may also turn out to be a solid #3 type pitcher... and perhaps a #2 at some point. The other prospect(s) will be higher-level. It could also turn out to be a surprise selection that is quite fruitful. Of those type, I see Pie, Kroeger, Atkins, Guzman, Hart, and even Holliman (who looked like a dominant stud in relief at AA this past season) as potential targets. Each one of those guys are about as ready for the MLB as they are going to get. If Guzman can stay healthy, he's a serious wildcard in terms of being something great. I doubt the Padres take Ceda back, but it could happen.

Pie doesn't have high value right now, but I do think he's a strong throw-in. I also think he'll prove to be quite worthwhile if ever given a true shot to play, and not just a handful of AB a week. For whatever reason, Piniella doesn't like Pie... but that doesn't mean others do not. Kroeger, I kinda think the Cubs should bring him up to play RF and provide that LH bat if no other option is found. However, he shows signs of being a good run-producer, and he's a solid defensive player. Kroeger was dominant the past two years at AAA and AA. He's currently hitting at a MVP pace in Winter Ball. Plus he's from San Diego. He did just turn 26 however. I think I smell a sleeper trade target.

"I think what Tim was trying to say is that he wants quality over quantity"

Which pretty much EXCLUDES the cubs.

"the Cubbies are high end contenders."

Not if they are offering a package of Vitters, Pie, Marshall and whatever other crap ( i.e. Thomas, Veal) cubs fans are throwing at the wall.

"Vitters/Pie/Thomas

and their pick of any pitcher in the Cubs system"

Come on now buddy, Im starting to lose faith in you. First off, I keep hearing people mention Thomas' and Im wondering, do any of you even know what he did last year in A ball? Ill give you a hint, NOTHING. Tell me how a line of .266BA 7HR 43RBI .320OBP .400SLG makes you an attractive prospect? It doesnt, not to mention he is looking absolutely AWFUL in Hawaii ball. Second name one major league ready pitching prospect the cubs have that the Pads would want. And please, save it on Ceda, who although posting good numbers, is a future 7th, 8th inning guy.....not enough when you are asking for a CY Young candidate.

"Somehow Bourne brought back Lidge to the Phillies...straight up. Think about that."

Yeah and that is a perfect example of a horrible deal. Oh and yes, Ed Wade is an idiot!! Kevin Towers is one of the best GMS in baseball and never would have made a horrific deal like that one. Just a little advice, when comparing past deals with future one, only use Ed Wade deals when you wanna discuss how bad a trade was. I'll go outn on a limb and guess KT already knows what the cubs have in their system...little to nothing.

Bogusevic has been friggin' awesome since moving off the mound. Think I might like to have him over Pence, given my choice. He may actually have more upside. Obviously, with Pence you KNOW you're getting something of value, but still...

Never say never, but I don't like the Astros' or Cubs' chances in this thing. St. Louis hasn't really been mentioned and might figure into things if they offer Rasmus, Todd, and Garcia or something akin.

mmontice-
You think the Cubs could get a deal done WITHOUT Vitters?! It's doubtful they could do it WITH him, dude! As even the Cubs fans here acknowledge, it's a matter of pitching (though with Vitters and without a better offer and IF he waived his NTC, Samardzija could maybe be the answer). Bravesfan89 makes a great, logical, point. If the Cubs can get it done without elite pitching, why couldn't the Braves get it done without Hanson. Even without Hanson (or Jurjens), an offer of, say, Medlen, Rohrbaugh, Schafer, and Escobar would trump anything Chicago could put together. I think you have to look at this rationally and figure that SOMEONE is going to make a substantial offer and if it's a five team fight, I think it almost HAS to be Atlanta or LA in the end. Again, never say never, but it doesn't look good for the other three (and for what it's worth, I'm not a fan of ANY of these teams).

Mystyck-
Clearly you're a Houston fan, which is cool...I get that you want to believe you have a shot at Peavy. Still, where are you getting this information? Has Peavy publicly stated that Houston is his first choice? I'm curious. Also, remember: it's not about what Peavy wants. He has some control thanks to the NTC, but San Diego doesn't HAVE to trade him to the team HE would most like to play for. In the end, he'll go to the team that A)he'll waive his no trade clause for; B)offers the best package in return. And let's remember that the Padres don't have to trade him AT ALL.

I'm curious...what kind of offer can you see Houston making that Atlanta, for instance, couldn't improve upon...even without Hanson or Heyward? Pence and...? I'm just wondering if I'm forgetting some big-time prospect(s) in the Astros' system.

"I think Adun's notion of Vitters, Marshall, and another prospect or two gets the deal done. If that's the case, I would prefer to pass on Peavy and pick up another starter through free agency. Vitters is a stud that I think will make a splash sooner than expected."

Wait
wait
wait
wait wait
wait wait

one second

You think Vitters/Marshall + prospect or two gets it done and you want to pass? That package sucks and you want to pass?

Ok

If this is true about Esco.....

then honestly a trade of Escobar, Schafer, Rohrbaugh and B. Jones would be an easy fit for Peavy.

"Bruce Levine on Chicago Espnradio 1000 reported two things:

1) Hendry played golf with Towers, and Towers likes Marshall, Pie, Cedeno, and Ceda"

Well gee whiz then, Hendry and Towers played golf, so its a definite done deal for Peavy to the cubs. You people make it way to easy, LMAO!!!

Oh and by the way, is this the same Levine who, oh about a year ago, said Hendry and MacPahil are good friends, play golf and had the Brian Roberts to the cubs a DONE DEAL atleat 3 times last offseason? Just checking to see if this is the same bruce Levine we are talking about.

""But could you point to any particular piece of information that would seem to indicate Pie still has impressive upside?"

1. Well, he is still only 23 years old.

2. He hit .300/.391/.450 after his september call up (very small sample size, but so is his MLB career).

3. Last year, in his 22 year old season, he hit .362/.410/.563/.973 in AAA.

4. He is widely known to be a very good defensive outfielder that can run down just about anything. His small sample size this year does little to prove otherwise in nearly everyone's mind. Just watch him.

He still has a lot of upside. He isn't Colby Rasmus, but there is certainly value there, especially if he were the second player in a deal."

BraveNewWorld,

Are you forgeting about Infante and Lillibridge.

if you are asking for K. Green then I am asking for Hanson.....

and please don't tell me you don't know who will fill the spot.

SS- free agents- Renteria, Cabrera, Furcal, Lugo, Punto, ....

Not my problem -loosen them purse strings

Let's take a look at slightly larger sample sizes that offer a better projection of his major league numbers, I have no doubt Pie has the talent to be a AAAA player.

Last year in 194 PA's he boasted 215/271/333/604

This year in 100 fewer PA's 241/312/325/637

He also posted a 352 babip, which may or may not have inflated that already paltry line.

Obviously both SS's but they seem to a more accurate indicator of Pie's ability with the bat.

" He is widely known to be a very good defensive outfielder that can run down just about anything"

I think this is a product of Pie hype. 16 out of zone plays in 200 innings doesn't scream range. Nor does an 875 RZR. I don't have any info on his arm..

Pie isn't Rasmus, like I said before he isn't even Coco Crisp.

The problem with Pie being the second piece in the package is that the first just isn't that good either.

Vitters is a solid prospect, struggled and dealt with injury but isn't anywhere near the level of the other top prospects being thrown around in terms of current value, eventually he could reach that plateau, but he ain't there now.

I am going to go on every trade rumors board, and boast about how amazing Julio Lugo is, and how he could start on any team, except the red sox, because we have Lowry.

Escobar/Morton/B. Jones/Rohrbough

or

Schafer/Morton/Lillibridge/Rohrbough

Should get it done. Hanson should be off the table. Or if he's in the deal the rest of the package is downgraded.

I'm not sure who I'd like to lose less: Escobar or Schafer, but I'd rather lose either than Hanson.

If SD includes Greene that would mainly be for salary relief. The Braves could add a 5th player (B. Jones? Prado? Low-level prospect?) but that's the secondary part of the deal.

no to lillibridge, the padres have antonelli....know both sides before you make the trade....

I told you Escobar, Schafer,B. Jones and Rohrbough, you are not going to screw me out, but i wont take heyward or hanson.