Adam Dunn's Price Might Be Falling

No suprise.

Hard times, man. I just had my hours cut at work due to the economy... looks like Dunny might have to man up at take a cut in his line of work too.

Dunn at $5MM? I refuse to believe that.

Every team in baseball should be knocking down the door if he's going to settle for $5MM per year.

40 HR, 100 R, 100 RBI, and a .900 OPS practically guaranteed...

Screw the Ks, for $5MM he'd be the biggest bargain in baseball this offseason.

I can't see why the Angels aren't players for Dunn. They clearly need a DH to put behind Vlad in the order. If the price is coming down (and they still have the money they would have invested in Tex at their disposal), why not make an offer now? Dunn might even take a few dollars less to sign with the Angels than the Nats.

4 yrs 20 mill?? DAMN!!!

Yanks should trade Nady and sign Dunn.

I wish we could include Kotchman in a Brian Roberts deal and sign him to a 6 yr extension then move Kelly Johnson to left and sign Dunn to a 3yr/27 million dollars and play him at first, only if we can re-sign Ohman through all of that

THOUGHTS?
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I think that's on the right track, but I just don't know about putting Dunn at first. You'd be going from a Gold-Glove Potential first baseman to a horrible fielder. But I would LOVE to get Brian Roberts at second. I'd try my best to throw out some prospects with potential for Roberts. How about put KJ in the deal and keep Kotchman. Then put Dunn at LF?

The nats better get him or hudson or i'm going to cancel my season tickets so fast stan kasten bald little head will spin.

I wish we could include Kotchman in a Brian Roberts deal and sign him to a 6 yr extension then move Kelly Johnson to left and sign Dunn to a 3yr/27 million dollars and play him at first, only if we can re-sign Ohman through all of that

THOUGHTS?
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I think that's on the right track, but I just don't know about putting Dunn at first. You'd be going from a Gold-Glove Potential first baseman to a horrible fielder. But I would LOVE to get Brian Roberts at second. I'd try my best to throw out some prospects with potential for Roberts. How about put KJ in the deal and keep Kotchman. Then put Dunn at LF?
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I agree that Dunn at 1B would not be a pretty sight. As a Brave fan I would love to have Roberts (assuming he will extend). I am not familiar with the O's needs, but if they want pitching I think Wren should offer up some of the prospects that will never make it into our rotation in the next few years.

Bravesfan are you nuts? Sign ROBERTS to a 6 year extension? That is absurd!

I agree that Dunn at 1B would not be a pretty sight. As a Brave fan I would love to have Roberts (assuming he will extend). I am not familiar with the O's needs, but if they want pitching I think Wren should offer up some of the prospects that will never make it into our rotation in the next few years.
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Yep. And guys like Parr, Morton, Reyes, etc... with Locke, Marek, etc. I would LOVE to have Roberts, but like you said, if he'd extend.

well wren this has been what you were waiting for time to grab dunn. 2 years 15 million is a bargain, plug him in left field and that makes the braves legitimate contenders in the nl east

The guy made 13 mil last year, hit 40 or more HRs for the last 5 years, and drove in 100 rbis.

And with of all that, he takes more than a 60 percent paycut?

The Market is limited but he shouldn't get a deal less than 7 million. Even at 10 million, he's a bargain.

Does this "unnamed agent" really believe that Dunn is going to make less than Giambi?

Boy, I wonder who his clients are. I think they should be looking for a new agent to represent them.

These comments come from someone who has watched myriad Reds games. For those who want Dunn at first, it is simply not feasible. His reflexes are too slow to play the position and he will pout and it will affect his hitting adversely. For those who want to plug him in at cleanup into the Angels or another lineup, consider this: he didn't hit cleanup for the Reds. Don't you think the Angels have a better lineup than the Reds? Shouldn't this tell you something? He is not an aggressive enough hitter to cash in on the RBI opportunities. The problem with Dunn is that he has a very limited skill set, all of you pining for him to play on your team might end up wondering what you were thinking.

Braves fans here's what I'm thinking:
1) Sign Dunn to a 1 year 7-8 million dollar contract, put him no. 5 in the batting order behind mccann. we need power more than anything else, that's the one thing he brings
2) Trade Kelly, JoJo, and Locke for Roberts. 3 year extension 24-30 million, put him in the leadoff slot. that takes us from a very poor lineup to an above average one.
3) Work something out with Andruw for the minimum, if it doesn't work cut him, if it does he could start in center.
4) If Glavine can pitch make him an incentive based offer

If Dunn would seriously consider signing anywhere near 1/5MM, Walt Jocketty would be an idiot for refusing to sign him because he wants to close the books on his era. Dunn IS the impact bat that WJ said was the number one priority. How can abreu at 10MM be out of the price range (or Dunn at 8MM for that matter) when they signed taveres for 2/6. That is just poor use of resources.

Braves fans here's what I'm thinking:
1) Sign Dunn to a 1 year 7-8 million dollar contract, put him no. 5 in the batting order behind mccann. we need power more than anything else, that's the one thing he brings
2) Trade Kelly, JoJo, and Locke for Roberts. 3 year extension 24-30 million, put him in the leadoff slot. that takes us from a very poor lineup to an above average one.
3) Work something out with Andruw for the minimum, if it doesn't work cut him, if it does he could start in center.
4) If Glavine can pitch make him an incentive based offer
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I like number 1. I LOVE number 2. Number 2 would put us at an above average offensive lineup and TREMENDOUS defensive lineup. Not so sure about number 3. I guess, as long as it's only for 400k. Number 4, I couldn't care less about. I guess he could be our number 3-4 guy behind Lowe, JJ, and possibly Vazquez?

I am no Dunn fan, but $5 million is really cheap for that guy. He may have glaring deficiencies, but he is worth way more than that. This is especially true if he is DHing and his glove isn't costing his team any runs.

"I think Kotchman could realistically hit .290 to .300 with 15-20 homers. Plus he plays great defense"

I don't think there is any question that Kotchman can achieve that without even touching his ceiling.

AA- Kotchman hitting .300 and 20 homers this year? I'm not so sure about that this year.

This is why players wouldn't support a salary cap. This is what would happen if big market team were limited.

bravesfan22193- Yep. I'd be ecstatic if we could send KJ off in a trade for Brian Roberts.

"I think Kotchman could realistically hit .290 to .300 with 15-20 homers. Plus he plays great defense"

AA

I think you need a meeting

Whoops 2009 :) That's about the fourth time I've done that this week. Arg.

I think not that many players expected the market to be this weak. Lots a people criticized Cashman for no offering arbitration to his players, but now we see it was a good choice.

This is a good opportunity for a team like the Giants or the Braves to get a cheap power hitter.

Cubbyfan,

Why couldn't this story be true? Dunn has said he DOES NOT want to go to the AL and be a DH. He has also said he wants to be in the Outfield. So, by saying this he has cut out over half the teams in ALL of baseball and then limited the choices in the NL even farther.

After Manny R, Bobby Abreu is still out there. Over the last five years, Abreu has scored more Runs and had more RBI's than Dunn even though he has Walked 32 fewer times and hit 101 fewer Home Runs. So, there are OTHER options STILL avalable to teams as far as Dunn goes.

People got onto Blue Jays GM J. P. Ricciardi for what he said about Dunn last year but maybe, just maybe, he KNEW what he was talking about and it is NOW showing by the lack of interest in Dunn by OHTER GMs around baseball.

I am going to LAUGH if and when Dunn finds himself on the involuntary retirement list like Kenny Lofton and Mike Piazza.

I actually do think its getting funny at this point how overrated Dunn is becoming, and yes I a huge fan of sabrmetrics. The issue is that people focus a little too much on offense and not enough on defense. Yeah, Dunn is worth worth around 30 runs above average at the plate, however the issue is he's worth in the neighborhood of 20-30 runs less than average once you adjust for position. Simply put, he's not worth nearly as much as you think he is. His average value over the past 3 years has been less than 10 million.

Oh and for those who are convinced that its stupid to say Dunn isn't clutch or whatever, I'm not going that far, but take a look at his career splits. With runners on his walk rate goes up significantly, while his average and slugging both dip. The same thing happens with RISP except its to an even larger extent. We're not talking about small sample sizes here either. We're talking 1300 PA with RISP, 2200 with runners on, and 2500 with none on. You'd think Dunn would hit for more power since he's getting ahead in the count more and can't wait on a pitch, but it just doesn't happen. I don't know if its meaningful, but its certainly interesting.

"NO baseball player deserves 5M PER
The YANKEES, REDSOX & SCOTT BORAS have destroyed baseball for the common man cant afford to bring his family to a game get food and souveners for his kids without blowing a healthy weekly paycheck for a 1 game visit
with that said dunn will get atleast 12m per FOR PLAYING THE KIDS GAME OF BASEBALL"

I really hate comments like this. Baseball is a business, not a kids game. Baseball generates billions of $$$. Go watch little league.
If you can't bring your family to the stadium that's not baseball's problem, it's a you problem. Yankees and sox have the highest ticket prices and sell out every game....its called supply and demand. why would a business owner drop tickets so you can bring your family to the game if they can sell the tickets at a higher price. btw, my dad only took me to 1 game a year when i was a kid and we sat in bleachers or up in the nose bleed section.

"NO baseball player deserves 5M PER
The YANKEES, REDSOX & SCOTT BORAS have destroyed baseball for the common man cant afford to bring his family to a game get food and souveners for his kids without blowing a healthy weekly paycheck for a 1 game visit
with that said dunn will get atleast 12m per FOR PLAYING THE KIDS GAME OF BASEBALL"

So you'd rather have the owners pocketing almost all of the revenue? think it through before you put it out there

""I think Kotchman could realistically hit .290 to .300 with 15-20 homers. Plus he plays great defense"

I don't think there is any question that Kotchman can achieve that without even touching his ceiling. "

I agree. Kotchman has a HUGE ceiling. Whether he'll actually reach that ceiling is one thing, but people need to take into account all which happened in 2008 (namely the death of Kotchman's mom, and remember, baseball players = humans who feel emotion; losing someone that close WILL hurt and effect performance adversely). I think Kotchman can hit for a solid average while playing splendid defense.

100% agree with mitchell

Dude that is way, way too much. Roberts is only signed for a year. You just don't give that much up for rental players. Besides, Schafer and Hernandez make little sense for them now anyway following the Pie deal. I'd think something along the lines of KJ and a pitcher or two depending on the who they want. KJ isn't as good as Roberts, but he's under team control cheaply for the next 3 years, which should count for something for a team like Baltimore that's not ready to compete.

As for Dunn, I wouldn't mind him on a 1 year deal worth 7-8 million. I'd personally not commit to him for very long because he's the type of player who could go south in a hurry, especially if you have to play him in the field. I also don't love the fit with our lineup, but their aren't many better options out there at this point if the Yanks demands for Swisher and Nady are high.

nixa- You do realize that they aren't going to give up Roberts for little, right? They don't have to trade him. They only will if what they are offered is worth it.

On the Roberts trade idea, if its KJ, Locke, and Reyes I'd do it. Any more than that and i'd say no. The Orioles have to trade him if they want more than 2 picks because he isn't going to re-sign. No way we trade gorkys or schafer for a guy signed only this year. I'd do it for the three listed above because i think 1 year of roberts and 2 years of prado would be better than 3 of kelly. reyes is not going to figure in the rotation and locke is still a ways away. add dunn in for LF and that has the feel of a playoff team

Ohman 2 years 9 million is ridiculous, no way the braves pay that much for a middle relief pitcher. i think he's good but i wouldn't give him 4.5 a year. no way should we trade gorkys in a roberts package. dunn 1 year 8 million is a good idea

On the Roberts trade idea, if its KJ, Locke, and Reyes I'd do it. Any more than that and i'd say no. __________________________

I like the idea, although I think Locke might be too much. Make it Parr instead of Locke and I'm in.

Roberts would definitely be a nice addition, but I wouldn't give up anything special for him since he's only signed for 1 season. KJ would make for a nice for a nice replacement in Baltimore and I'm sure they'd love to add some more young pitching. I'm pretty high on Locke, so I wouldn't be willing to package much along with him (think a rookie ball type pitcher with the ceiling of a #4/#5 starter or a good bullpen arm). I'd probably say the same thing about Morton. If Reyes was one of the pitchers, maybe add in a guy like Marek or Redmond. I'd also consider dealing Gorkys if Baltimore values him, but I don't know how well he'd fit in with their future OF plans.

Brad cant tell if you're being serious, i think its fair. roberts is one of the top 2nd basemen in the game and reyes and kj isnt enough, parr essentially has no trade value so locke is fair. we have plenty of young pitching prospects and two more lefties (deVall and Rohrbough) so we can take losinng locke. if you were not being serious, i dont see how that's not being fair to both. roberts doesn't have nearly as much value as he has had in the past because this is his last year on his contract, they get two young pitchers one of whom can start for them next year and they get a 2nd baseman for the next 3 years in kelly

Adding Roberts wouldn't add 8 million in salary if KJ's part of the deal. He's probably looking at a salary of around 3-4 million next season, which the Braves have already accounted for in their budget projections.
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Then hell, I'm all for it. I personally think the need for a legit lead off guy is bigger than the power bat. Trade for Roberts, re-sign Ohman, and platoon Diaz and Blanco/Scafer in LF and call it an offseason.

I'm sorry, but KJ for Roberts is a STUPID deal for the Braves. It just is. Yes, KJ is inferior to Roberts, but giving up 3 years of KJ for one of Roberts + draft picks is just stupid. And, I'm pretty confident KJ's 2009 numbers will look more like his 2007 numbers than his 2008 numbers. Roberts is declining defensively, so extending him is a horrible idea IMO. Just don't do it.

Too late, man... I already signed the deal.

What if they traded for Roberts without KJ as part of it?

"What if they traded for Roberts without KJ as part of it?"

First of all, peoples' assessment of Parr as having zero trade value is stupid. If he doesn't cut it as a BOR starter, he will probably cut it as a reliever. And yes, that is valuable. He's not a top prospect, but as a throw-in for a deal, he has all the value Reyes/Morton has.

I build a trade around Jeff Locke or Cole Rohrborough. MacPhail will rightfully ask for the latter. Then, I add in mid-level guys (aka NOT Heyward, Hanson, Schafer, Teheran, Freeman, or Gorkys and nobody already at the MLB level) until the deal is satisfied.

It's not just the AFL stats though. Its his stats period once he started mixing in a slider again (he stopped throwing it in games after JC) and had some time to get control of it and lock down consistency. Check out his splits at minorleaguesplits.com and remember he starting throwing the slider again when he tossed a no hitter in his next to last start in June (he struggled in his last June start in part because he went 9 innings the time before)...he was a completely different pitcher with the slider and he actually built up to his AFL performance.

Check out his numbers from the start of August onward...

56.2 IP 25 H 90 K 19 BB 2 HR

That works out to a K rate of 14.3, a BB rate of 3.0, and an opponent AVG of .128

Dunn detractors always focus on his negatives...

Sure he cannot field, but all the OF bats this off season were below average defenders.

Burrell, Dunn, Ibanez, Manny, and Abreu are below average defenders.

Dunn is one of the top ten power/OBP bats in all of baseball.

His average is low across the board so, a low average with RISP is no surprise. Contact rate is an issue...

Posted by: MikeClarke | January 19, 2009 at 10:01 PM
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I'm not a Dunn detractor, but come on...none of the OF bats on the market have gotten the money they wanted because they weren't good defenders and they were trying to price themselves based completely off of offensive value.

Dunn is not one of the top 10 power/OBP bats in baseball. Last season he finished 16th in OBP, 31st in SLG, and 17th in OPS...very good, but not nearly as good as some people tend to think.

The people who don't get that Moneyball was all about finding market inefficiencies as opposed to finding high OBP, OPS sluggers who couldn't field have caused Dunn to be overrated within a large segment of the fan community. You know what Oakland and Boston moved on to years ago? Fielding, because they figured out good metrics before anyone else did.

The issue isn't just that he has a low average with runners on. Its that both his average and ISO drop significantly from no runners on, to runners on, to RISP...this over the course of his entire career. I don't know if he'll eventually turn it around or whatever, but over such a large sample size its something to take note of.

nixa-

I agree that Hanson is an awesome prospect and trading him in almost any scenario would probably be stupid. But its his stats in-season which make him that awesome prospect, not his AFL stats. I was just saying that AFL stats should be discounted.

Posted by: melonis rex | January 19, 2009 at 10:20 PM
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I know what you were saying, and obviously he can't keep up that ridiculous ERA, but his stats built up to the AFL performance. His improvement from June to July was in line with his improvement from July to August, which was in line with his improvement from August to the AFL. The AFL is a hitters league and Hanson dominated it a way no one else ever has. If you listen to BA, the reason was because Hanson just improved that much and was really throwing a plus to plus-plus slider with consistency there, to go along with an already strong arsenal. I see a pitcher who added a new pitch mid year, continued to refine it and learn how to use it, and just ended up making larger strides than any other prospect in baseball.

This isn't me as a Braves homer saying this either. I started looking into it when I saw BA ranked Hanson's slider the best in the organization (when a lot of the prospecting community still didn't know he threw one). I saw that he started throwing it in late June and then I checked out the splits and things really started to make sense.

There's a reason BA ranked Hanson ahead of Heyward in the Braves system.

Guys, Roberts is not nearly the defender he was. He's not near the level of the defensive elites (Ellis, Utley, etc.). And, he's not going to get better defensively, face it.

Wow...I wish my friend was on now. NO names please, but he's a Dodger fan who roots for a certain SoCal college team. He actually used the words "Awsome hitter" to describe Dunn. Sure he's a great hr hitter w/ a great eye but "Awesome"?

That being said, the last few years of Giambi has frustrated me out. Dunn would be a steal for many teams, but with regards to the Yankee fan that suggested we sign him...I'd pass. W/ Matsui DH'ing, Dunn would be a liability in LF/RF....worse than Abreu if that's possible.

If the O's are serious about moving Huff to first and the price is right, I like the idea of Dunn at DH; money talks and that no AL crap NEVER stands up when the chips are down. I HATE those arguments; it's like when everyone was saying CC wouldn't want to play in New York. Hell, CC actually SAID that at one point and it turned out to be BS once the Steinbrenners turned into human ATM machines, so...

AS for Roberts to the Braves...? As an O's fan, I hate the idea of losing our star second baseman, but I have begun to prepare myself for the possibility of a deal due to Roberts' reluctance to sign an extension. And the Braves are a fairly solid match on paper. Obviously, as a Birds fan, I take issue with some of the comments made above: anyone who has watched Baltimore play, night after night, knows Roberts' defense is still GOLDEN; you can quote me all the sabermetrics crap you want. I'll trust my eyes.

I'm similarly inclined to simply ignore some of the more absurd trade proposals above. In point of fairness, Roberts DOES have but one year remaining on his contract; still...ya gotta give something to get something and, as always, the team talking about dealing away prospects, wants them ascribed values well above what's warranted.

Still...I like that a dialogue has been broached and I do think a fair trade could be brokered. I would agree with some of the Atlanta fans who have already pointed out that guys like Schafer and Hernandez make no sense for the O's...though I don't agree with those who feel such prospects represent too much value in a swap. Pitching is always needed and if Roberts is dealt, we'll have gaping organizational holes at both middle infield slots. First base is an issue as well. We do NOT need outfielders, however, so don't worry...we needn't even whisper Heyward's name (refreshing, no?)

For that matter, let's set aside Jurrjens, Escobar, and Hanson as untouchables, too, just to lay the groundwork. Locke though?! C'mon!

That said, I'll toss my proverbial hat into the ring and offer my own take: how about...

Brian Roberts FOR Cole Rohrbaugh, Kelly Johnson, and Brandon Hicks

OR

Roberts and George Sherrill (cheaper than Ohman for same role) for Johnson, Rohrbaugh, Kris Medlin, and Jo Jo Reyes (or Morton).

Thoughts?
(Don't know how it would work- maybe with an extension built in or if the Braves are within a few games of the NL East lead- but if it were a mid-season deal, several more interesting pitchers could factor into a trade; in particular, Brett DeVall, Jacob Thompson, Craig Kimbrell, Tyler Stovall, and Zeke Spruill.

I hate this mess going on with Dunn, I live in Lexington, Ky., so I drove to Cinci a few times a week to watch Adam Dunn and the Reds. I dont blame him for gtting away, I just think the deal should have waited. I am soooo glad to see griffey go, he is rude and just washed up. He was the best in baseball in his early years but not anymore, and I dont believe I am alone. Anyway, I cant place a CF for the Reds but with Dunn and Bruck in the outfield, could have been dangerous. People are just ready to give up on Cinci. I will follow them good or bad, I just think they need Dunn back. Last season he was lazy in the outfield but they get what they pay for. He is worth alot more than he is getting, and I can't believe he is still unsigned. If the Gods shine down, Dunn would go back to Cini, I dont see it but anythings possible in baseball. I think Dunn could be one of those names that are remembered for 100 years. I would love to see Bandon Web from Arizona end up in Cinci, we had a few run ins in high school, got one off of hime way back then. anyway, Bruce and Dunn in outfield and Webb on the mound. I think that is a recipe for domination. Anyway, Good luck Dunn Wherever you go.